Historical Breakdown of Arkansas Schedules

[eusebius]

Granted this is not exhaustive, but it gives some perspective of the strength of schedule that Arkansas has historically faced. This year's will be the toughest as far as facing the most ranked teams, and we will have to wait and see where Ole Miss, Miss State, LSU, and perhaps Missouri are ranked when we play them. But this is not completely uncharted territory for Arkansas. Things change over time, so we have to account for the 10, 11, and then 12 game regular season, as well as bowl games and conf, championships, and the poll was expanded from 20 to 25. So there will be some variation. But let these numbers tell the story.

In 1940: Arkansas faced 5 ranked teams in 10 game schedule, the highest ranked was #5 TAM.

In 1956: UA went 6-4 and played 4 top ten teams, TAM once again #5

In 1961: UA played, 4 top ten teams: at the time of the games Ole Miss was #9, Baylor was #9, Texas #3 and Alabama #1.

In 1964, the National Championship year, UA benefited from being both dominant and not having a deep schedule. They dominated their competition with 5 straight shutouts en route to 11-0, but only faced two ranked teams, but they were #1 Texas, and in the Cotton Bowl, # 6 Nebraska.

In 1977: UA went 11-1, and faced four teams in the top 15. Including two games vs the number two team at the time, Texas, and OU in the Orange Bowl.

In 1978 and 1979: Both season UA finished with an 9-2-1 record. In 1979, the Hogs faced 2 number 2 ranked teams: Texas in the regular season and Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

The Hatfield years did not feature the same depth of ranked teams on the schdule, and on the average he was facing two or three ranked teams, with one of those being in the bowl game.

The 1993 schedule was deep. The Hogs went 5-5-1 (3-4-1 in SEC). They played #19 SoCar, #2 Ala, #24 Georgia, #11 Tenn, #9 Aub, #21 Miss St. Ark was able to get wins over South Car and UGA and tie Miss St. So even in a .500 year, they managed wins over top 25 teams.

Ford's last year, 1997, featured #11 Ala, #1 Florida, #11 Aub, #5 Tenn, #15 Miss St, and #17 LSU.

Nutt's first year, 1998, in the 8-0 start, we caught some scheduling breaks: #22 Alabama, #1 Tenn were the only ranked teams on the schedule. #15 Michigan was the bowl opponent. 

2005, McFadden's freshman year, the schedule had #1 USC, #20 Alabama, #21 Aub, #4 Georgia, #3 LSU. This year we had three opponents ranked in the top 4.

2006. The 10-2 regular season, and SEC West champs, we faced 6 ranked teams all within the top 13. #6 USC, #2 Auburn, #13 Tenn, #9 LSU, # 4 Florida, # 6 Wisconsin.

2010, Sugar Bowl/ BCS team that finished 10-3 and 6-2 in the SEC faced 6 ranked teams: #1 Alabama, #7 AUB, #18 South Car, #22 Miss St, #6 LSU, #6 Ohio St.

2011, 11-2, 6-2 in SEC, team faced #3 Alabama, #14 TAM, #15 AUB, #10 So Car, #1 LSU, #11 Kansas St.     

Here are some my conclusions, you can provide your own.

1. Our best teams benefited from weaker schedules. You can't control how good or bad the conference is. Nutt was fortunate his first year. Hatfield was fortunate that TAM, Texas, or Houston were rarely all good at the same time. 1964's team, I believe would have dominated regardless of schedule because they were so good defensively. This is also why I hold the 1977-79 teams in such high regard, because of the strength of schedule and overall record.

2. The 2006 team was really good. Of course this team was the beginning of the end with the Nutt/Malzahn debacle, but the schedule this team played was brutal and is comparable to this years. Five top ten teams on the schedule couting the SEC championship and bowl game

3. CBP's teams faced stacked schedules in 2010-2011 en route to a 21-5, 12-4 SEC record.

4. CBB's schedule is brutal. So far, at the time of the games, rankings were #6 Auburn, # 6 TAM, # 7 Alabama, #10 Georgia. I think we have seen TAM was overrated. So let's for argument sake say CBB has faced 3 legit top ten teams, all in the top 7. Now, depending on where Ole Miss and Miss State are ranked when we play them will determine just how tough this schedule truly is. If both stay undefeated, then it will be esentially facing 6 top 10 teams at the time of their ranking, which would be unprecedented in the 12 game regular season schedule. But, if OM and Miss St lose, then the 2005 schedule would be the one featuring the 3 highest ranked teams. So fans need to realise that as far as depth, yes this is the hardest schedule, but in 2005 we played #1, #3 and #4 in the regular season.

5. Whether it was Nutt, CBP, or now CBB or whomever in the future, as long as we are in the SEC, as long as the divisions are set up like they are, as long as the college football world is zeroed in on the SEC, the schedule will be tough.


     

[sowmonella]

Nice post. We will likely end up playing 8 ranked teams this year including 6 in the top 10.

[Oklahawg]

Good OP. What enhances the effect is how they fall in the schedule.

2005 had #1 USC (blowout loss) as the lead game. UGA was mid-year and LSU the last game of the regular season.

I'd be curious the last time we faced 3 top 10 teams in consecutive weeks in the modern (platoon, post-integration) era.

[Danny J]

I don't have the link any longer but in 2012 a study done showed that from the years 2002-2012 Arkansas has played the toughest schedule over that period of time. I am sure 2013 would be right up there and for a fact that this years schedule would be.

Nothing is going to change. The SEC may have some ebbs and flow but consistently we are now and 10 years from now going to be playing either THE toughest schedule or right near the top. So I totally agree with point #4.

[DLUXHOG]

The reality is that most of these top 10 games are entirely within the conference...

[Hogwild]

I don't have the link any longer but in 2012 a study done showed that from the years 2002-2012 Arkansas has played the toughest schedule over that period of time.

That is what happens when you are at the bottom of the SEC West, you have to play everyone above you.  Also South Carolina just had the best 10 year run in the history of the program, and they were the cross division team we got.

[Atlhogfan1]

That is what happens when you are at the bottom of the SEC West, you have to play everyone above you.  Also South Carolina just had the best 10 year run in the history of the program, and they were the cross division team we got.

We weren't at the bottom of the West. 

[eusebius]

Good OP. What enhances the effect is how they fall in the schedule.

2005 had #1 USC (blowout loss) as the lead game. UGA was mid-year and LSU the last game of the regular season.

I'd be curious the last time we faced 3 top 10 teams in consecutive weeks in the modern (platoon, post-integration) era.

End of 2006, if you count the bowl, we had #9 LSU, SEC champ game #4 Fla, and then #6 Wisconsin in the bowl. Lost all three. That season began with a 50-14 loss to USC, then 10 wins in a row, and then ended with three straight losses.

[Atlhogfan1]

2010 may be the most impressive season considering the records of the opponents we beat. 

The 06 AU and Tenn wins were impressive over an 11 and 9 win team.

98 and 11 had a lot of wins over bad teams. 

[eusebius]

We weren't at the bottom of the West.

What differs this year from those other years where we had really difficult schedules (61, 77-79, 2006, 2010-11) is that we were also highly ranked. I also want to give Hatfield a bit more credit. His out of conference schedule made up for some of the lack of depth in the SWC. He would routinely have a solid Ole Miss team to face, as well as a few games with Miami during their prime. The other opponent was sort of rivalry game with Tulsa and then a tune up game w/ New Mexico/St on a routine basis.   

[Danny J]

That is what happens when you are at the bottom of the SEC West, you have to play everyone above you.  Also South Carolina just had the best 10 year run in the history of the program, and they were the cross division team we got.

Correct.....it is the "Bama doesn't have to play Bama" reasoning which is spot on. We also seem to catch UF at their very best with the exception of last year. They are the only team in the SEC we have not beat since joining the SEC.

[Locutus_of_Boar]

Good work!  Thanks.

[Sir Oinksalot]

...just a really great timing for this OP...congrats !!


Well, it just points up my "John the Baptist" cry in the wilderness that with the toughest schedule over the last five years,
not only for the Razorbacks but ALL of College Football since the beginning of College Football AND shooting ourselves
not only in the feet but in the legs as well with the Nutt fiasco, the NOVA rise and burn of BP, the smiling moron and total
lack of recruiting or discipline for over ONE SOLID YEAR after all that, it's us the fans who have lost our game !!

end of rant...

[eusebius]

...just a really great timing for this OP...congrats !!


Well, it just points up my "John the Baptist" cry in the wilderness that with the toughest schedule over the last five years,
not only for the Razorbacks but ALL of College Football since the beginning of College Football AND shooting ourselves
not only in the feet but in the legs as well with the Nutt fiasco, the NOVA rise and burn of BP, the smiling moron and total
lack of recruiting or discipline for over ONE SOLID YEAR after all that, it's us the fans who have lost our game !!

end of rant...

Well maybe this will make you feel better:

In 1961, Alabama won the national championship going 11-0. That year the SEC had three other teams ranked in the top 13:#4 LSU, #5 Ole Miss, #13 Georgia Tech. Guess how many of those teams Alabama played that year? . . . Zero. The SEC schedule was tilted in their favor as the SEC had twelve teams and Alabama missed the defending champs, Ole Miss and a very good LSU team. Georgia Tech ended the season ranked, but was not at the time they played Alabama. The only ranked team Alabama played was #9 Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl.  Sometimes the schedule just breaks that way.

[bphi11ips]

Good research.  Thanks for posting.

[redeye]

That was interesting, but I wish it had only included regular season games.  Some of our toughest schedules may not have included a bowl game and this year may be another example of that.

Also, I think you'll find that everyone benefits when their schedule is softer.  We've seen some SEC teams dominate with very tough schedules, but I don't think it's common.  Little things like that matter a lot more then most think.

[eusebius]

That was interesting, but I wish it had only included regular season games.  Some of our toughest schedules may not have included a bowl game and this year may be another example of that.

Also, I think you'll find that everyone benefits when their schedule is softer.  We've seen some SEC teams dominate with very tough schedules, but I don't think it's common.  Little things like that matter a lot more then most think.

That's a good point about regular season vs post season games. It kind of balances out over time because the better you are the higher ranked your opponent will be in a post season game. Georgia's 1980 schedule is a good example of getting scheduling breaks. UGA only faced #14 South Carolina and #20 Florida. Alabama was the defending National Champion and ranked #6, but they weren't on Georgia's schedule. UGA beat #7 Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl.   

[WarPig88]

Props to the OP. Very informative.

[ChicoHog]

I'm pretty sure when the SEC had 10 teams before UA and SCarolina joined that they only played 6 league games which was ridiculous.  (Please correct me if I am wrong on this as I am too lazy to look it up).  Very subjective conference champions that way.  Teams like Bama and UF would go years without playing each other.  Made no sense at all. 

[Hogarusa]

Nice work.  The following site lists our top 5 all time most difficult schedules:

www.collegefootball.bz/arkansas

[eusebius]

I'm pretty sure when the SEC had 10 teams before UA and SCarolina joined that they only played 6 league games which was ridiculous.  (Please correct me if I am wrong on this as I am too lazy to look it up).  Very subjective conference champions that way.  Teams like Bama and UF would go years without playing each other.  Made no sense at all.

Chico,

The SEC schedule has fluxuated between 8 games (such as in 1963, when there were 12 teams, including Tulane and Georgia Tech and then it dropped down to 6 league games in 1977, and then back up to 7 in 1988, and then to 8 in 1992 when Ark and SC joined and the divisions were created. I am not sure what the behind the scenes reasons were for the 6 and 7 game SEC schedules, because my mind was focused on the SWC and not the SEC when all those changes were taking place.   

[code red]

You could read in many aspects to this information.  I choose to focus on 2010-2011.  What do I take from it?  That was as successful as the Hogs have been in the modern recruiting era and the BCS era.  Which leads me to believe....being balanced is for those who can recruit in the top 10 in the country.  Stack your chips up on the offensive side..be great on special teams and have a serviceable defense.

[Atlhogfan1]

You could read in many aspects to this information.  I choose to focus on 2010-2011.  What do I take from it?  That was as successful as the Hogs have been in the modern recruiting era and the BCS era.  Which leads me to believe....being balanced is for those who can recruit in the top 10 in the country.  Stack your chips up on the offensive side..be great on special teams and have a serviceable defense.

This...post has very little....relevant to....the....conversation...

[Tejano Jawg]

Great job eusebius. This also shines more light on the Hello-Kitty schedules (no offense intended to Hello Kitty) of some perennial top 10 teams. I'm looking at you Ohio State and Florida State.

[DeltaBoy]

We never get any EAST teams when they are down.

[hogsanity]

We never get any EAST teams when they are down.

Nope, and MSU seems to always get at least 1 if not 2 when they are down. Just like 98 when they tied us for the SECW. AR and MSu had 2 common SECE opponents, SC and Ky ( Ky was pretty god in 1998 ), AR 3rd SECE opponet was #1 TN @ TN while MSu got Vandy @ home on opening day. A Vandy team that went on to a 2-9 ( 1-7 ) record.

[DeltaBoy]

Nope, and MSU seems to always get at least 1 if not 2 when they are down. Just like 98 when they tied us for the SECW. AR and MSu had 2 common SECE opponents, SC and Ky ( Ky was pretty god in 1998 ), AR 3rd SECE opponet was #1 TN @ TN while MSu got Vandy @ home on opening day. A Vandy team that went on to a 2-9 ( 1-7 ) record.

This is the reason I will always believe the SEC is out to screw us when ever possible wither it via schedule and dang gum Zebra Crews.

[hogsanity]

This is the reason I will always believe the SEC is out to screw us when ever possible wither it via schedule and dang gum Zebra Crews.

The schedule is always going to bite someone. I think it was 2011 when GA did not have to play AR, Bama or LSU, meanwhile SC drew at least tow if not all three of those teams.

This year, MSu and old misses both drew Vandy. for their other sece opponent, om got Tn and msu got KY.

[ChicoHog]

The schedule is always going to bite someone. I think it was 2011 when GA did not have to play AR, Bama or LSU, meanwhile SC drew at least tow if not all three of those teams.

This year, MSu and old misses both drew Vandy. for their other sece opponent, om got Tn and msu got KY.

Another great reason to have 10 team conferences where everyone plays each other.  No subjectivity that way. 

[WizardofhOgZ]

I don't have the link any longer but in 2012 a study done showed that from the years 2002-2012 Arkansas has played the toughest schedule over that period of time. I am sure 2013 would be right up there and for a fact that this years schedule would be.

Nothing is going to change. The SEC may have some ebbs and flow but consistently we are now and 10 years from now going to be playing either THE toughest schedule or right near the top. So I totally agree with point #4.

LOL . . . with regard to the OP of this thread (by the way, nice research!), I've been telling people about the brutal difficulty of our schedule since we move to the SEC for years . . . years!   Ironically - and frustratingly - the idiots in the media used to only comment about our schedule when they were berating our non-conference schedule for the "cream puffs" we had on it (in their opinion).  Only in the past couple of seasons have the media and masses finally started to recognize what it is we face year after year - regardless of our non-conference schedule (and that we have usually played at least one pretty good non-conference team).  See this post from 2007: http://www.hogville.net/yabbse/index.php?topic=145227.msg2285072#msg2285072 

And, as for the link Danny refers to, I've posted that here many times since it was published as well, to prove my point.  The period in question is actually 2003-2010, but there's no questions that we've had similarly difficult schedules in the years since.

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2011/7/14/2274767/strength-of-schedule-college-football

(Scroll down to the third table)

[Danny J]

LOL . . . with regard to the OP of this thread (by the way, nice research!), I've been telling people about the brutal difficulty of our schedule since we move to the SEC for years . . . years!   Ironically - and frustratingly - the idiots in the media used to only comment about our schedule when they were berating our non-conference schedule for the "cream puffs" we had on it (in their opinion).  Only in the past couple of seasons have the media and masses finally started to recognize what it is we face year after year - regardless of our non-conference schedule (and that we have usually played at least one pretty good non-conference team).  See this post from 2007: http://www.hogville.net/yabbse/index.php?topic=145227.msg2285072#msg2285072 

And, as for the link Danny refers to, I've posted that here many times since it was published as well, to prove my point.  The period in question is actually 2003-2010, but there's no questions that we've had similarly difficult schedules in the years since.

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2011/7/14/2274767/strength-of-schedule-college-football

(Scroll down to the third table)

That's it....thanks Wizard

[eusebius]

Great job eusebius. This also shines more light on the Hello-Kitty schedules (no offense intended to Hello Kitty) of some perennial top 10 teams. I'm looking at you Ohio State and Florida State.

In 1993, when FSU went 12-1 and won the title, they played # 17 Clemson, #13 North Carolina, # 3 Miami, #15 Virginia, # 2 Notre Dame (loss), # 7 Florida and #2 Nebraska in the Orange Bowl. Miami and Notre Dame were out of conference games. That year FSU's schedule was tough.

In 1999, FSU's first BCS title, they went 12-0 and beat #10 Georgia Tech, # 20 NC State, #19 Miami, #4 Florida and # 2 Va Tech in the BCS championship. Not as tough as 93, but still not an easy schedule. Miami and Florida both were out of conference opponents.

In 2013, FSU faced #25 Maryland, #3 Clemson, #7 Miami then #20 Duke in the ACC title game and #2 Auburn in the BCS title game. Out of conference games were Nevada, Bethune Cookman, Florida, and Idaho. This one had the fewest ranked teams on the regular season schedule. Maryland and Miami did not finish the season ranked.

As for OSU:

In 2002 OSU faced #10 Washington St out of conf, five weeks later played #17 Penn St, then #19 Minnesota, finishing with #12 Michigan.  Beat #1 Miami in the BSC championship.

The following year in 2003, OSU went 11-2, and played 7 ranked teams on the regular season and then an 8th in the bowl game. 2003 was a good year for the Big 10, as four teams won more than 10 games: OSU, Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa.

In 2006, OSU made the BCS title game and lost to Florida. Early in the season OSU beat #2 Texas, then beat #24 Penn State and #13 Iowa and then had 6 straight weeks of unranked opponents before finishing with #2 Michigan. This same year, Ohio St did not play Wisconsin, who finished 12-1.

Speaking of Wisconsin: In 2006, Wisconsin played one ranked team before they faced Arkansas in the Citrus Bowl, #6 Michigan. By the time Purdue and Iowa and Penn St came around on Wisconsin's schedule, they had fallen out of the top 25.

So what can we deduce? Teams like FSU and OSU benefit from momentum that results from playing sub par conference teams on consecutive weeks, sometimes four or five weeks in a row, and then they play Michigan, or in FSU's case, they would play Miami or Florida.  In most years that does not happen in the SEC.  Take LSU's 2007 BCS championship team that went 12-2. In a six week stretch they played 5 ranked teams ranked anywhere from #9-#18. There was no letup in the middle of the schedule. This was the year that LSU lost in two 3 OT games to Kentucky and Arkansas (I got dat wood right hur!). Yet they beat an OSU team whose highest ranked team that they faced in the regular season was #19 Wisconsin.