NCAA ranks Arkansas' 2012 schedule as toughest in SEC

[razorjack12]

My apologies if this has already been posted . . .

http://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/2013/2013-sec-football-schedules/

[HF#1]

It's one of those schedules where if you win 8 games you probably go to a Cotton Bowl. 

[WizardofhOgZ]

This is one of those "dirty little secrets" that you never hear on ESPN; year in and year out, Arkansas almost always has one of the toughest schedules in the country.  Oh, they love to smirk and joke about it when we play a Missouri State or Western Illinois.  But they either lack the intellectual integrity, or simple intelligence (probably both) to also point out how tough our overall schedule consistently is.

I've been saying this for at least a decade:  Over any 5-8 year period since we've been in the SEC (at least the last 15 years), our composite schedule (in other words, taking all five consecutive seasons as a whole and comparing them to the schedules of other teams during that same period of time) is ALWAYS in the top five most difficult in the country.

From six years ago: http://www.hogville.net/yabbse/index.php?topic=145227.msg2285072#msg2285072

I realized this from simple observation and critical thinking over time, without actually crunching the numbers.  However, my Assertion was confirmed by someone who DID do the math a year or two ago (scroll down to the third table):

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2011/7/14/2274767/strength-of-schedule-college-football

[Razor1997]

Not surprising that we have the toughest schedule.  After all, we're the only team that has to play Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, South Carolina, and Florida.  That could very easily be -- actually, I'm pretty sure it WILL be -- half of next year's Top Ten right there.

[ZERO]

This is one of those "dirty little secrets" that you never hear on ESPN; year in and year out, Arkansas almost always has one of the toughest schedules in the country.

I know, it's ALWAYS a tough schedule. We're only hearing about it this year vs. the last two or three years because we're expected to really suck this season. So, suddenly, all of these good teams are expected to hammer us into the ground, and the schedule has become "brutal."

We won't always be down, so the competition (minus Alabama) had better enjoy it. Especially teams like Auburn and Mississippi State.

[arkjay19]

Well, to be fair, much of the SEC has some of the toughest schedules in the country.  Some other SEC schools like LSU, Alabama and Georgia regularly schedule tougher out of conference games than Arkansas. South Carolina and Florida both have top rivals in the ACC that they play every season. The key is how many tough road games SEC teams face every season.

The only other team that faces both Alabama and LSU on the road every two seasons is Mississippi State, but they play Kentucky every season instead of South Carolina and Arkansas usually has a tougher out of conference opponent. No team in the East Division  has to play both Georgia and Florida on the road every two seasons.  Arkansas has also had road games against Tennessee and Florida in the same seasons as facing both Alabama and LSU on the road.

Hopefully with the changes to the schedule coming, Long can keep Arkansas from having to play both of those two teams on the road in the same season every two years.

[redeye]

This is one of those "dirty little secrets" that you never hear on ESPN; year in and year out, Arkansas almost always has one of the toughest schedules in the country.  Oh, they love to smirk and joke about it when we play a Missouri State or Western Illinois.  But they either lack the intellectual integrity, or simple intelligence (probably both) to also point out how tough our overall schedule consistently is.

I've been saying this for at least a decade:  Over any 5-8 year period since we've been in the SEC (at least the last 15 years), our composite schedule (in other words, taking all five consecutive seasons as a whole and comparing them to the schedules of other teams during that same period of time) is ALWAYS in the top five most difficult in the country.

From six years ago: http://www.hogville.net/yabbse/index.php?topic=145227.msg2285072#msg2285072

I realized this from simple observation and critical thinking over time, without actually crunching the numbers.  However, my Assertion was confirmed by someone who DID do the math a year or two ago (scroll down to the third table):

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2011/7/14/2274767/strength-of-schedule-college-football

I've always thought the same thing, but I've never seen that link, so thanks!

More proof can be found in the NCAA's 'Toughest Schedule' data here:

http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/2012/Internet/toughest%20schedule/tough.html

If you sort it by cumulative opposition, here's where we've ranked yearly since 2008 (find different years by changing the year in the link):

2012 - 6th
2011 - 25th (this is the year when our OOC opponents all had disappointing seasons.)
2010 - 2nd
2009 - 4th
2008 - 5th

That's as far as it goes back and we're 1st in the SEC over that span. In the years previous to 2008, we played USC and Texas, so we probably fared just as well, if not better.

It's my opinion that our SEC schedule plays a big part in why our schedule is typically more difficult then our SEC opponents. I don't know if it's been intentional, poor scheduling work on our part or what, but our rotating opponents always seem to be at their best when we play them. I could say more, but it's all menial stuff. However, it all adds up and one game is often the difference between the SECCG or staying home.

Btw, I'm not the least bit surprised to see Alabama and Auburn in the lower half on that list. Alabama does play some tough OOC games, but they tend to be over-publicized and they get it all back with SEC scheduling breaks. Yea, I know everyone wants to schedule their bye week before playing Bama, but that doesn't excuse giving them an easier schedule. IIRC, back when we played 2 permanent cross-divisional opponents, our opponents were Tennessee and South Carolina, while Alabama had Tennessee and Vanderbilt.

[arkjay19]

Btw, I'm not the least bit surprised to see Alabama and Auburn in the lower half on that list. Alabama does play some tough OOC games, but they tend to be over-publicized and they get it all back with SEC scheduling breaks. Yea, I know everyone wants to schedule their bye week before playing Bama, but that doesn't excuse giving them an easier schedule. IIRC, back when we played 2 permanent cross-divisional opponents, our opponents were Tennessee and South Carolina, while Alabama had Tennessee and Vanderbilt.

The No. 1 reason why Alabama can ever be considered to have a lower-half ranking of toughest SEC schedules is because Alabama never has to play Alabama.

The play Virginia Tech this season.  They always have a marquee out of conference opponent now. This year is lined up where most of their tough games are at home, but that just means their schedule will be more difficult next year.

[urkillnmesmalls]

I cannot believe I'm going to type this, but  I agree with Robert Shields on one point that he made.  If you look at our schedule, the teams we play on the road next season are games that we would have been big underdogs in even had we played them at home, and likely lost them all anyway.  The teams that we play at home, are games that we have a fighting chance to win...with the possible exception of TAMU, who we aren't really sure how they'll be with what they lost.  So as far as qualifying for a bowl, and getting some serious "thrown to the wolves" experience, I think it has lined up about as good as it can in that regard.

The big games will be Rutgers and Ole Miss with regard to swing games that will determine if we get to the elusive 6 win bowl game eligibility IMO.     

EDIT:  OK, so I forgot about South Carolina at home too.  That one may be a stretch, but maybe we surprise some people and beat either TAMU or SC at home.  Stranger things have happened.  I'm just SEARCHING for a way for us to get to 6 wins...I admit it.   

[redeye]

The No. 1 reason why Alabama can ever be considered to have a lower-half ranking of toughest SEC schedules is because Alabama never has to play Alabama.

The play Virginia Tech this season.  They always have a marquee out of conference opponent now. This year is lined up where most of their tough games are at home, but that just means their schedule will be more difficult next year.

That's somewhat true, but all you have to do is compare Alabama and LSU to see that it's more then that. Alabama does play tough OOC games and they play a tough overall schedule. I think the difference has to do with their conference schedule, although I won't say that it's intentional.

It would be interesting to compare our conference slate to Alabama's over a several year span. I wouldn't care when it started or ended, as long as it was fair. I'd even suggest removing the games against each other, which should give Alabama an advantage, since the SEC uses a little subjectivity to ensure that everyone plays a cross-divisional opponent around the same level every year.

[The Divine Swine]

I cannot believe I'm going to type this, but  I agree with Robert Shields on one point that he made.  If you look at our schedule, the teams we play on the road next season are games that we would have been big underdogs in even had we played them at home, and likely lost them all anyway.  The teams that we play at home, are games that we have a fighting chance to win...with the possible exception of TAMU, who we aren't really sure how they'll be with what they lost.  So as far as qualifying for a bowl, and getting some serious "thrown to the wolves" experience, I think it has lined up about as good as it can in that regard.

The big games will be Rutgers and Ole Miss with regard to swing games that will determine if we get to the elusive 6 win bowl game eligibility IMO.     

EDIT:  OK, so I forgot about South Carolina at home too.  That one may be a stretch, but maybe we surprise some people and beat either TAMU or SC at home.  Stranger things have happened.  I'm just SEARCHING for a way for us to get to 6 wins...I admit it.   

we will beat Bama this year. i know that flies in the face of logic, but i just feel it. we are due, plus Bielema made those comments. i think it messes with saban's head a bit. we play over our heads and get it done. we may still only win six, but one will be Bama. i have been saying this for months. it will happen.

[razorsharptusk]

I'm just looking for six.  Six wins to get us to a bowl after last season is improvement and something not many are expecting.  Of course, I'm focused on game 1, win 1.

[Dominicanhog]

It's one of those schedules where if you win 8 games you probably go to a Cotton Bowl.

Deservedly so... btw, the Cotton Bowl is my prediction for the season.

[Dominicanhog]

EDIT:  OK, so I forgot about South Carolina at home too.  That one may be a stretch, but maybe we surprise some people and beat either TAMU or SC at home.  Stranger things have happened.  I'm just SEARCHING for a way for us to get to 6 wins...I admit it.   

I think we beat both... we'll go undefeated at home. 

[WizardofhOgZ]

I think we beat both... we'll go undefeated at home.

I was gonna ask what you were smoking; but then I saw your user name.

Nevermind.

[EastexHawg]

Just a thought, but if we were coming off another 11-2 season and ranked #5 in the preseason polls our opponents' schedules would be rated tougher than they are, too.  And if we had beaten A&M, South Carolina, and LSU as we have within the last couple of years they wouldn't have finished the season ranked as highly as they were...and that would make our schedule "easier" from a statistical point of view.

There is sometimes more to "toughest schedule" than meets the eye.  I am not saying our schedule isn't tough.  I am just saying that the worse you perform, the tougher your schedule is typically rated.

[HogInFlorida]

Just a thought, but if we were coming off another 11-2 season and ranked #5 in the preseason polls our opponents' schedules would be rated tougher than they are, too.  And if we had beaten A&M, South Carolina, and LSU as we have within the last couple of years they wouldn't have finished the season ranked as highly as they were...and that would make our schedule "easier" from a statistical point of view.

There is sometimes more to "toughest schedule" than meets the eye.  I am not saying our schedule isn't tough.  I am just saying that the worse you perform, the tougher your schedule is typically rated.

We lost basically all of our offensive production and our linebackers. We aren't gonna be fielding the same team that went 11-2. We only return 2 players who scored any TDs in the 11-2 year and they are Kiero Small and Kody Walker. I have no idea what this team will accomplish. We have a crop of new young and inexperienced players on offense, we have coaches who have different philosophies and teaching styles as the last staff. We could go 5-7 or we could go 8-4. There are so many variables. But 6-6 seems to be the norm so I'll go with that.

[Arkansas Fan]

Deservedly so... btw, the Cotton Bowl is my prediction for the season.

That would be cool. I'd take one against Texas, Oklahoma, or West Virginia.

[Dominicanhog]

That would be cool. I'd take one against Texas, Oklahoma, or West Virginia.

Mack's swan song would be nice....