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Author Topic: How surprised will you be?  (Read 2617 times)

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Al Boarland

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Re: How surprised will you be?
« Reply #50 on: February 16, 2018, 06:09:53 pm »

By tons...how much is that??  Tons like...the next Bama in hiding, or tons like...enough to beat TAMU, and at least hold Auburn to under 40, maybe?  Because it's hard to believe it's better than about top 30 based on our previous recruiting classes, coupled with the more recent one that was doomed from the word go with the bad timing.   

This. The whole CBB era was based on coaching up the diamonds in the rough. We snagged a few good ones and a lot of guys with few offers or non-comittable offers from other big programs. The recruiting rankings tell the tale. There isn’t TONS of talent. Tons of talent would mean 5 years of top 15/10 classes. That’s a situation where you can step in and have immediate success.
« Last Edit: February 18, 2018, 05:53:41 am by Al Boarland »
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lakecityhog

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Re: How surprised will you be?
« Reply #51 on: February 17, 2018, 09:58:38 am »

Guys, this talent thing is so bent out of shape that it is ridiculous! Granted the talent disparity between Arkansas and Alabama and Clemson is a pretty wide gap right now, but the biggest gap is DEPTH not starting talent. We have a big injury and it HURTS, they have a big injury and it is "next"!

Let's compare us to Auburn, a ton of people here seem to think that they are sooo much more talented than us. Right now the all-time series with Auburn stands at 15-11-1 in Auburn's favor, a 4 game advantage. Take out the 5 years of BB and the series is 11-10-1 for Auburn, basically a wash!

Take LSU, they have a rather large lead overall since the series started in 1901, but if you look at the SEC records we trail only by 6 games at 16-10. The Saban years and shortly after killed us, they were competing for National Championships then. But, we were VERY competitive in a lot of the losses.

Yes, stars matter, talent matters. But, the difference in a 4* and a 5* really isn't that much and a 4* coached well and put in the right system can overcome that slight difference in a 4*and 5* rating. And, believe it or not sometimes that rating is actually backwards, the 4* rated kid is really the better football player.

How many of you really believe that UCF has more talent then Auburn? That Peach Bowl was a GREAT example of coaching overcoming a talent disparity! I will be the first to say that Central Florida had some really good players, but not better than Auburn. UCF had the better coach!

We have plenty of talent to win in the SEC, maybe not enough to win the SEC, but enough to compete. And, I think that competing is all that most of us really want. If we compete year-in and year-out we will finally catch a couple of breaks and possibly win it!
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urkillnmesmalls

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Re: How surprised will you be?
« Reply #52 on: February 17, 2018, 10:24:44 pm »

Guys, this talent thing is so bent out of shape that it is ridiculous! Granted the talent disparity between Arkansas and Alabama and Clemson is a pretty wide gap right now, but the biggest gap is DEPTH not starting talent. We have a big injury and it HURTS, they have a big injury and it is "next"!

Let's compare us to Auburn, a ton of people here seem to think that they are sooo much more talented than us. Right now the all-time series with Auburn stands at 15-11-1 in Auburn's favor, a 4 game advantage. Take out the 5 years of BB and the series is 11-10-1 for Auburn, basically a wash!

Take LSU, they have a rather large lead overall since the series started in 1901, but if you look at the SEC records we trail only by 6 games at 16-10. The Saban years and shortly after killed us, they were competing for National Championships then. But, we were VERY competitive in a lot of the losses.

Yes, stars matter, talent matters. But, the difference in a 4* and a 5* really isn't that much and a 4* coached well and put in the right system can overcome that slight difference in a 4*and 5* rating. And, believe it or not sometimes that rating is actually backwards, the 4* rated kid is really the better football player.

How many of you really believe that UCF has more talent then Auburn? That Peach Bowl was a GREAT example of coaching overcoming a talent disparity! I will be the first to say that Central Florida had some really good players, but not better than Auburn. UCF had the better coach!

We have plenty of talent to win in the SEC, maybe not enough to win the SEC, but enough to compete. And, I think that competing is all that most of us really want. If we compete year-in and year-out we will finally catch a couple of breaks and possibly win it!

We see this year after year.  I'm guilty of it as well.  But...history doesn't lie.  Can you be really good without top 10 recruiting classes.  Yep.  Can you win it all?  Not lately. 

Everything you wrote is from the perspective of overcoming a disadvantage.  Uphill battle.  Underdog.  However you want to characterize it, you're being asked to do more with less. 

If we can do it with recruiting classes ranked from 25-30, then we're going to buck the current trend pretty substantially. 

I think the Auburn loss was as much about lack of motivation by the players as anything else.  They overcame adversity during the season, and they just ran out of gas at the end when they fizzled following beating Bama and UGA.   
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rtr

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Re: How surprised will you be?
« Reply #53 on: February 17, 2018, 10:52:25 pm »

Reallly i will not be surprised at all.  Nothing earth shattering here from the op.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2018, 11:06:29 pm by rtr »
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Pork Twain

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Re: How surprised will you be?
« Reply #54 on: February 18, 2018, 05:03:35 am »

Not even a little surprised.  The talent was there, the coaching was not.
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Al Boarland

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Re: How surprised will you be?
« Reply #55 on: February 18, 2018, 06:00:42 am »

We see this year after year.  I'm guilty of it as well.  But...history doesn't lie.  Can you be really good without top 10 recruiting classes.  Yep.  Can you win it all?  Not lately. 

Everything you wrote is from the perspective of overcoming a disadvantage.  Uphill battle.  Underdog.  However you want to characterize it, you're being asked to do more with less. 

If we can do it with recruiting classes ranked from 25-30, then we're going to buck the current trend pretty substantially. 

I think the Auburn loss was as much about lack of motivation by the players as anything else.  They overcame adversity during the season, and they just ran out of gas at the end when they fizzled following beating Bama and UGA.

Good points. I think LCH is saying that, on occasion, we can sneak up and upset some teams. The error in his posts is he goes too far back in time with series records. He throws out the CBB era which also happens to include a good chunk of when the SEC concentrated high-end talent to the top half of the conference. The gap between the haves and have nots widened over the last 8 years or so.
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urkillnmesmalls

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Re: How surprised will you be?
« Reply #56 on: February 18, 2018, 11:47:52 pm »

Good points. I think LCH is saying that, on occasion, we can sneak up and upset some teams. The error in his posts is he goes too far back in time with series records. He throws out the CBB era which also happens to include a good chunk of when the SEC concentrated high-end talent to the top half of the conference. The gap between the haves and have nots widened over the last 8 years or so.

I didn't think there were any errors in his post??  My position is that I agree, but it's always coming from the perspective that we're going to have to play at a level that is well above where we rank with recruiting.  That's just a fact, until/unless we can jump up substantially in the recruiting numbers. 

I consider beating Ole Miss with the HH lateral a big upset.  They had beaten Bama, and were headed for the SECCG.  We also managed to nip LSU as well.  So..we had a few "rise up" games even under CBB. 

It's just a mindset issue for me.  I WANT to believe that we'll somehow overcome the odds and rise up, but then when you look at the statistics...it's literally close to impossible.  The rankings don't lie, and it's become almost a prerequisite for winning the NC.  So...if you're a recruit, you're coming here knowing that NC is a longshot.  What makes that significant?  There are a handful of SEC schools that are likely on the same kids, and they can boast about their high recruiting, which is a huge indicator of the potential for winning a NC.  So...it's a recruiting advantage for them, and disadvantage for us. 

We'll see how it pans out.  Right now...the uptick by Texas and TAMU is not going to help at all.  Hopefully, Morris will still manage to pull some top talent from TX.  We'll see....
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