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Author Topic: 2013 vs 2018 roster  (Read 2283 times)

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Hogdomer

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Re: 2013 vs 2018 roster
« Reply #50 on: January 15, 2018, 10:38:33 pm »

How so?

Which position groups were in a better situation coming into 2013 than 2018 and most importantly, why were they in a better position?

How much of the better 2013 roster is from true freshmen that you see as opposed to players left from the previous staff? How much are you projecting what the players were eventually able to do much later onto what they had actually accomplished before 2013 started?

Of course Iím using what they were eventually able to do.  I donít see how you can attempt a comparison otherwise.  The main factors are the 2013 had elite talent on the defensive line.  Those are the hardest players to find and most important players on that side of the ball.  You must stop the run and put pressure on the QB with the front four or you are constantly gambling and/or getting run over..  Chris Smith spent several years in the NFL as a pass rusher, Philon is an excellent NFL player and Tre is one of the best to ever play here (also, he and Smith were really good in 2011-12).  We had two running backs in 2013 who were great.  Maybe Hayden and Hammonds can be good too.  Itís hard to know because Hayden got injured and the prior staff refused to play Hammonds but advantage 2013.  Receivers, TEs and Oline seem to be a push.  Iíll give the 2018 secondary and Lbs the slight edge.  I think we can all agree the most important position on the field is QB.  There, itís a distinct advantage for 2013.  Iíve seen Kelley play and was not impressed.  Good short yardage guy maybe but mechanics are slow and accuracy isnít nearly good enough.  BA very solid.  Also huge advantage at kicker for 2013.  That usually costs us one or two games a year.
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HogHomer

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Re: 2013 vs 2018 roster
« Reply #51 on: January 16, 2018, 12:14:42 am »

Of course Iím using what they were eventually able to do.  I donít see how you can attempt a comparison otherwise.  The main factors are the 2013 had elite talent on the defensive line.  Those are the hardest players to find and most important players on that side of the ball.  You must stop the run and put pressure on the QB with the front four or you are constantly gambling and/or getting run over..  Chris Smith spent several years in the NFL as a pass rusher, Philon is an excellent NFL player and Tre is one of the best to ever play here (also, he and Smith were really good in 2011-12).  We had two running backs in 2013 who were great.  Maybe Hayden and Hammonds can be good too.  Itís hard to know because Hayden got injured and the prior staff refused to play Hammonds but advantage 2013.  Receivers, TEs and Oline seem to be a push.  Iíll give the 2018 secondary and Lbs the slight edge.  I think we can all agree the most important position on the field is QB.  There, itís a distinct advantage for 2013.  Iíve seen Kelley play and was not impressed.  Good short yardage guy maybe but mechanics are slow and accuracy isnít nearly good enough.  BA very solid.  Also huge advantage at kicker for 2013.  That usually costs us one or two games a year.
This big long wall of text just to say you don't or can't understand the premise of the OP.
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bennyl08

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Re: 2013 vs 2018 roster
« Reply #52 on: January 16, 2018, 01:38:07 am »

Of course Iím using what they were eventually able to do.  I donít see how you can attempt a comparison otherwise. 

It's not that hard. For example, take QB. BA and Kelley are both RS sophomores. BA is smaller than Cole. Both played against Alabama and Kelley did way better. BA looked lost while Kelley was overwhelmed at times, his stats in this case do tell the story. BA played about as well vs ULM in a losing effort as Kelley did vs Bama. On top of that, Kelley had a lot more experience than BA did. You could see BA had a lot of promise in practice, but so do a lot of players and at that point in time, BA what BA had showed on the field, even against bad competition wasn't good. BA has an elite release quickness of the ball, but Kelley's is perfectly fine. His looks similar to what Bortles has this year. It's like saying that BA doesn't have Mallett's arm strength. True, but it isn't like BA doesn't have.

Quote
The main factors are the 2013 had elite talent on the defensive line.  Those are the hardest players to find and most important players on that side of the ball.  You must stop the run and put pressure on the QB with the front four or you are constantly gambling and/or getting run over..  Chris Smith spent several years in the NFL as a pass rusher, Philon is an excellent NFL player and Tre is one of the best to ever play here (also, he and Smith were really good in 2011-12).  We had two running backs in 2013 who were great.  Maybe Hayden and Hammonds can be good too.  Itís hard to know because Hayden got injured and the prior staff refused to play Hammonds but advantage 2013.  Receivers, TEs and Oline seem to be a push.  Iíll give the 2018 secondary and Lbs the slight edge.  I think we can all agree the most important position on the field is QB.  There, itís a distinct advantage for 2013.  Iíve seen Kelley play and was not impressed.  Good short yardage guy maybe but mechanics are slow and accuracy isnít nearly good enough.  BA very solid.  Also huge advantage at kicker for 2013.  That usually costs us one or two games a year.

Agree that the DL talent is a pretty big deal. I don't think that 2018's is too far behind what we had coming into 2013, but 2013 was definitely above. Philon was a RS so we had no idea if he'd be any good other than he had a Bama offer. Agim had a Bama offer and probably a couple others I'm forgetting. Flowers had some success before but also a lot of mistakes from '11 and '12 with a lot of lost contain. Thomas was a guy who struggled with injuries and was basically only heard about in practice but never materialized on the field until 2013. Winston, Wise, Johnson, and Lewis hadn't showed much yet either. Smith was a polished product (also don't know why you used the past tense describing his NFL career, as he had his best season in the NFL by far this year) but he was the only one at that point. Though, our best guys have only shown similarly to Flowers to date with flashes of talent but nobody being a polished product yet. Granted, our DL coming into 2018 is still pretty young overall.

RB: JWill had 45 carries 231 yards, 5.1 ypc and 0 rushing td's to go along with 8 rec, 208 yards, and 2 tds. Contrast that with 61 carries, 326 yards, 5.6 ypc, and 4 rushing td's by Hayden along with 1 reception for 23 yards.

Apart from JWill, who was the other back you are referring to? Kiero as fullback who was our third leading rusher? Alex Collins came in with the freshmen class, which of course we haven't even signed yet this year save for a few early signees. Who knows what a freshmen will do. Besides Williams, we didn't have a backfield in 2013. If we had Hayden and then a scat back that hadn't seen the field, the two would be comparable. 2018 returns a RB with 237 career carries, 1161 yards, 4.9 ypc, 10 rushing td's, 14 rec, 195 yards, and 1 td over 2 years, along with TJ Hammonds (let's say he's our scatback to balance out Nate) and a very talented freshmen who redshirted to go along with whatever Alex Collins we sign come february.

WR: 61 receptions, 857 yards 14 ypc, and 5 tds over 5 receivers and 8 combined seasons coming into the 2013 season.
       192 receptions, 2795 yards 14.6 ypc, and 22 td's is what we have coming in for us in 2018 from just receivers (over 9
       receivers and 14 combined seasons.

I know which group I'd rather have coming back.

TE: 21 receptions, 164 yards, and 0 tds coming into 2013 from the TE position.
      74 receptions, 753 yards, and 7 td's coming into 2018 from the TE position.

Again, hardly a push. Sure, there was a redshirted Sprinkle who had to put on 50 pounds before he could even start to play TE and then we signed Henry. We had to RS Gunter who is very talented last year due to injury and who knows who else we will end up signing this year at TE.

OL: Correct me if I'm wrong, but Cook and Smothers were the only two inherited OL players to start for us after 2013 when Swanson and Hurd graduated. Hurd couldn't get much push on running plays, but he didn't allow many sacks. Colton was better at run blocking, but worse than Hurd at pass blocking. Given the significance of the LT position, slight edge to 2013 there. RG we have a all-SEC returner compared to needing to start a true freshmen there in 2013. Big advantage to 2013. Center, isn't much of a debate, but we are good hands with Rogers and won't need to start a true freshmen. RG: Major advantage to 2018. Same with RT. Then, factor in the depth that we have on the OL as well. At starting positions, if you weight the C and LT higher which is reasonable, you get a push in returning starters, but in looking at the quality depth we have, pretty hard to argue anything other than an advantage for the 2018 group overall.

You give all 3 (OL/TE/WR) a push?

I hadn't figured in special teams, and having Hocker is a big benefit. Though, we only had him for one year. Limbert showed a lot of promise and Morris may not have to find a K until the 2021 season. Still advantage 2013, but longevity keeps it from being a massive advantage, just a very solid advantage.

Punter is also very important. We had to find a new punter in 2013. We return a good punter for 2018. Adv 2018.

Long snapper is an advantage for 2013 as well with D'Appollonio returning as a 2 year starter and playing another two while our starter graduated leaving Morris to have a redshirt sophomore to work with.
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Pork Twain

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Re: 2013 vs 2018 roster
« Reply #53 on: January 16, 2018, 05:30:47 am »

Of course I’m using what they were eventually able to do.  I don’t see how you can attempt a comparison otherwise.  The main factors are the 2013 had elite talent on the defensive line.  Those are the hardest players to find and most important players on that side of the ball.  You must stop the run and put pressure on the QB with the front four or you are constantly gambling and/or getting run over..  Chris Smith spent several years in the NFL as a pass rusher, Philon is an excellent NFL player and Tre is one of the best to ever play here (also, he and Smith were really good in 2011-12).  We had two running backs in 2013 who were great.  Maybe Hayden and Hammonds can be good too.  It’s hard to know because Hayden got injured and the prior staff refused to play Hammonds but advantage 2013.  Receivers, TEs and Oline seem to be a push.  I’ll give the 2018 secondary and Lbs the slight edge.  I think we can all agree the most important position on the field is QB.  There, it’s a distinct advantage for 2013.  I’ve seen Kelley play and was not impressed.  Good short yardage guy maybe but mechanics are slow and accuracy isn’t nearly good enough.  BA very solid.  Also huge advantage at kicker for 2013.  That usually costs us one or two games a year.

It is actually very easy and the only way to honestly do a comparison is to do so at the same point in their careers.  The information about past players is all out there and it is easy to compare a Freshmen from 2008 to a Freshmen 2013 to a Freshmen from 2018.  How sought after were they, what were their HS numbers, what were their offer lists like...  To attempt to compare any other way is shady at best.  Comparing what a RS Sr has done to what a RS Soph might do, is an act of futility
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IronHog

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Re: 2013 vs 2018 roster
« Reply #54 on: January 16, 2018, 07:27:36 am »

Not seeing it.  I am seeing a lot of bitching, not #UNCOMMON on here, but not a lot of others willing to do their own analysis.


Analysis

Bert was too busy playing favorites and running off his best players to do anything but go 3-9

He left nothing better than he found it....that was and remains a lie.
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Jonbo

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Re: 2013 vs 2018 roster
« Reply #55 on: January 16, 2018, 07:44:11 am »

This is the post/thread I've been waiting to see since I started reading this board a couple of seasons ago. With the depth charts laid out next to each other so nicely it's really easy to compare position by position beyond making very general statements, and some nice comparisons have been done here. Thanks, "Benny"! That said, with my very thin actual football and, specifically, Razorback knowedge (I am a "carpetbagger"  :-[), all I can do is speak generally.

The big "if" in this rosters real potential is, of course, both lines and how they might play this coming season. If Agim is moved back outside, has some poundage removed, one would think he can make a significant difference with his natural assets emhasized compared to last season in what was often-times a 3 man rush! (What the h### was that about?) But beyond that, I have no opinion on the D-line potential, just hope. That Chavis plans to go with a 4 man base front lends hope as it would appear to suit our personnel a lot better. Again, what was the previous staff thinking? Don't answer!

O-line, man! Based on last season, blech! Again, the anticipated style-of-play changes lend some hope. Quick passing, yes! Getting out of heavy box formations, positive. Of course, Ragnow graduating is a big minus. Who will lead them? Maybe someone can predict who might step up. It all depends,overall, on whether some once highly rated prospects can prove their mettle as they haven't done to date.

Skill positions, I agree with the consensus that 2018's looking pretty decent compared to those comparison classes. Same with the D back 7. Rating the team's potential though, it all depends on marked improvement from both lines. If they perform like last season, 4 wins. I'm going to take a chance, though. I'm going to say that BB was right when he said the Razorbacks were close. He just lacked the imagination, or maybe determination, to know how to organize to make it happen (3-4 defense? Deep drop/play-action? Really?! Go have a mai-tai on a beach, brah.) I'm saying the Razorbacks are going to play fairly inspired this season for Morris. I'm rating their potental over the other 2 classes and going with 7 wins (gulp!)
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Pork Twain

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Re: 2013 vs 2018 roster
« Reply #56 on: January 16, 2018, 07:58:48 am »


Analysis

Bert was too busy playing favorites and running off his best players to do anything but go 3-9

He left nothing better than he found it....that was and remains a lie.
Analysis and opinion are not the same. 
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Hogdomer

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Re: 2013 vs 2018 roster
« Reply #57 on: January 16, 2018, 09:05:11 am »

This big long wall of text just to say you don't or can't understand the premise of the OP.

I can and do understand it, just reject the premise because I donít think itís a helpful analytical tool.  This is all rank speculation so I threw in my 2 cents.  Hopefully Iím wrong and we are great next year.
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