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Author Topic: Foul Calls by the Numbers  (Read 894 times)

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nesjunk

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Foul Calls by the Numbers
« on: January 03, 2018, 09:53:16 am »

There have been 9 games so far in this young SEC basketball season.  To date, 192 fouls have been called on the visiting team and 147 on the home team for an average disparity of +5 in favor of the home team per contest.  Most of these fall into the statistical range of that number, except one.  The +15 disparity in last night's Arkansas-MSU game was not only the largest difference of the season - it wasn't even close.  The second largest differential is +9 when Vanderbilt played at Florida on Saturday, and Vandy committed 3 of their fouls in the last 30 seconds in an attempt to extend the game.  There has been only one game in which the home team was called for more fouls that the visitors: Texas A&M at Alabama (20-19).

While that speaks to the disparity within individual games, it does not address the disparity among officiating crews.  Last night featured two ends of the spectrum with Florida at Texas A&M cruising along with only 21 fouls and 5 free throws the entire game while the Auburn at Tennessee marathon included a whopping 54 fouls and 66 free throws.  Ironically, these are the only two games of the young season that the visiting team has managed to win.

Make of that what you will...
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Smalltownhog95

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Re: Foul Calls by the Numbers
« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2018, 10:02:26 am »

I would rejoice if the game went back to 90's era defense. The game moved so smoothly. And no im not some old dude saying how much better it was back in the day. I was born in the 90's and it blew my mind to watch old games and see periods of 3 or 4 minutes were the whistle only blew for timeouts or when the ball went out of bounds. Refs have too much influence in basketball and even football now.
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Atlhogfan1

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Re: Foul Calls by the Numbers
« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2018, 10:03:10 am »

There have been 9 games so far in this young SEC basketball season.  To date, 192 fouls have been called on the visiting team and 147 on the home team for an average disparity of +5 in favor of the home team per contest.  Most of these fall into the statistical range of that number, except one.  The +15 disparity in last night's Arkansas-MSU game was not only the largest difference of the season - it wasn't even close.  The second largest differential is +9 when Vanderbilt played at Florida on Saturday, and Vandy committed 3 of their fouls in the last 30 seconds in an attempt to extend the game.  There has been only one game in which the home team was called for more fouls that the visitors: Texas A&M at Alabama (20-19).

While that speaks to the disparity within individual games, it does not address the disparity among officiating crews.  Last night featured two ends of the spectrum with Florida at Texas A&M cruising along with only 21 fouls and 5 free throws the entire game while the Auburn at Tennessee marathon included a whopping 54 fouls and 66 free throws.  Ironically, these are the only two games of the young season that the visiting team has managed to win.

Make of that what you will...

Pearl Ball gets players to the line and Tenn fouls a lot.

Florida and A&M don't foul a lot in general.

MSU doesn't foul a lot.  We do. 

Would need to compare to other conferences.  We did this comparison a few seasons ago and the SEC was worst of the power conferences in terms of fouls called and disparity home team vs road.  But part of that was quality of the league and coaching styles.  We have some coaches who use the FT line like Pearl and Fox to generate offense.  UK got to the line because of dribble drive and offensive rebounding. 
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HogInThaGrove

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Re: Foul Calls by the Numbers
« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2018, 11:56:51 am »

In our previous 12 games, we averaged 20 personal fouls (26 this game, 1 off season high), and the opposing team averaged shooting 25 free throws (40 this game, season high by 3).  On averages alone, it appears that Miss St. was the recipient of some advantageous refereeing. 

However...

If we look at the Minnesota game, the totals are almost mirror images:

Against Minnesota we were:
+7 - Shot attempts
-6 - Rebounds
+13 - Assists
+1 - Turnovers
+7 Blocks
+2 - Steals

57% - Field
43% - 3pt
53% - Free Throw

While Minnesota was:

41% - Field
26% - 3pt
64% - Free throw

Against Miss. St we were

+3 - Shot attempts
Even - Rebounds
+8 - Assists
-6 Turnovers
-5 Blocks
-5 Steals


51% - Field Goals
40% - 3
41% - Free Throws

While Miss. State was:

42% - Field
19% - 3
60% - Free Throws.

To me, the bolded numbers are the biggest difference, and most of that is defensive, however, it is also quite remarkable that Miss St. had:

59 - Total Shots
21 of which were 3 pt attempts

So of the remaining 37 shots (took 1 off because Thomas fouled on 1 3pt shot) Miss. State was fouled on 19, or 51% of their 2pt shots.  (Numbers may be off by 1 or 2, can't remember if there was another foul on 3pt attempt...but they're very close)

That is literally almost unbelievable. 

Any team can overcome their terrible shooting if every other shot they take inside the 3pt line is called a shooting foul on the opposing team. 

I'm still of the opinion that defensive rebounding is our biggest deficit, but we usually overcome that with pts off turnovers and fast break points, both of which we lost last night.  That won't happen often.

Conclusion:  Hogs didn't play well.  Refs influenced the game in favor of home team. That is a bad combination.
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hogsanity

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Re: Foul Calls by the Numbers
« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2018, 12:00:35 pm »



-6 Turnovers
-5 Blocks
-5 Steals



Killer to a team that is set up to to win by winning the to battle. Scoring on turnovers and fast breaks.
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ArkansasI

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Re: Foul Calls by the Numbers
« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2018, 12:19:54 pm »

Some detailed analysis in this thread...

Howland must be one of the better coaches in the country to get his team to play strong defense without fouling.  They do an excellent job defending the perimeter without reaching, and preventing drives.

In contrast, it seems the Hogs are always called for fouls.  Perhaps it is our full court man that encourages whistles - we do a lot of chasing that seems to take defenders out of position and control.  Weakside help often leaves shooters open which can be frustrating if the opponents' guards maintain their composure.  All college basketball players can make 3 pointers.

I don't know why Mike didn't let Barford sit more last night.  He was out there most of the night and had to be getting frustrated looking for shots.  I've learned why Jones doesn't see the floor more - he's taking bad shots and lacks some strength that would help him play conference games.

Still, we have a decent team.  Fun to watch.
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hogsanity

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Re: Foul Calls by the Numbers
« Reply #6 on: January 03, 2018, 12:48:07 pm »

Some detailed analysis in this thread...

Howland must be one of the better coaches in the country to get his team to play strong defense without fouling.  They do an excellent job defending the perimeter without reaching, and preventing drives.

In contrast, it seems the Hogs are always called for fouls.  Perhaps it is our full court man that encourages whistles - we do a lot of chasing that seems to take defenders out of position and control.  Weakside help often leaves shooters open which can be frustrating if the opponents' guards maintain their composure.  All college basketball players can make 3 pointers.

I don't know why Mike didn't let Barford sit more last night.  He was out there most of the night and had to be getting frustrated looking for shots.  I've learned why Jones doesn't see the floor more - he's taking bad shots and lacks some strength that would help him play conference games.

Still, we have a decent team.  Fun to watch.

MSU plays defense on the perimeter to keep guys from having open looks. Arkansas plays defense on the perimeter to make steal and deflect passes. One requires trapping slapping and reaching, and one does not.
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ArkansasI

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Re: Foul Calls by the Numbers
« Reply #7 on: January 03, 2018, 12:50:18 pm »

MSU plays defense on the perimeter to keep guys from having open looks. Arkansas plays defense on the perimeter to make steal and deflect passes. One requires trapping slapping and reaching, and one does not.

So, which is better?
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hogsanity

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Re: Foul Calls by the Numbers
« Reply #8 on: January 03, 2018, 12:54:45 pm »

So, which is better?

Depends. Msu only fouls an average of 14 times per game, so they do not give up a bunch of free pts at the line. Arkansas, WHEN THEY ARE FORCING TURNOVERS is very good, but when they have a game like last night, MSU had only 8 to's iirc and AR was -5 in the to stat, they just give up open looks and drives that result in fouls and the opponent getting free pts. 

The only difference in last night and the TN game was the last 4 or 5 minutes. Against TN the Hogs forced some turnovers, got it to OT and then won the game. Last night, MSU took care of the ball, Hogs went cold late, and MSU won.
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Dropkick

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Re: Foul Calls by the Numbers
« Reply #9 on: January 03, 2018, 01:00:43 pm »

Anybody else been shafted this year to the tune of 40 free throws to 12?
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hogsanity

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Re: Foul Calls by the Numbers
« Reply #10 on: January 03, 2018, 01:07:00 pm »

Here is a thread from the UCLA board from a 2015 loss to Wake Forest. Looks very familiar

FT disparity in Wake game was pretty absurd.
kareemiswrong
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If this is how they are going to officiate the game under the new rules, college basketball is going to sink even further. Every single time we got close the refs would blow a whistle and put Wake on the line. That was perhaps the most one sided officiating I've seen in my 40 plus years of watching Bruin basketball. This is not to say we didn't play poorly. We did. 

Blitz2Win
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Nov 29, 2015
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Very likely gambling interests.

With the rebounding margin and fg percentage you would normall y never see that kind of free throw disparity. I've seen it in one other wake forest game that was the most heavily bet games on all of Vegas books. Definitely dirty and takes away from the integrity off the game.

kareemiswrong
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Something smells.

Russ Smith
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I'm the first guy to blame the refs when they suck but we fouled them on shots over and over. It's what confounds me with this team under alford, we give up more wide open 3's than can be believed, but when people drive we consistently foul them.  the worst of both worlds and that's what WF exploited.

We are a bad defensive team.

https://247sports.com/college/ucla/Board/103038/Contents/FT-disparity-in-Wake-game-was-pretty-absurd-54322981
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nesjunk

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Re: Foul Calls by the Numbers
« Reply #11 on: January 04, 2018, 10:21:01 am »

Through Wednesday's games, there have been 12 games in the SEC basketball season.  To date, 251 fouls have been called on the visiting team and 195 on the home team for an average disparity of +5 in favor of the home team per contest.  The +15 disparity in Arkansas@MSU game is the largest difference of the season.  The second largest differential is +11 Ole Miss@Georgia last night.  There have been 2 games in which the home team was called for more fouls that the visitors: Texas A&M@Alabama (20-19) and Kentucky@LSU (14-10).  But road teams fared well last night going 2-1 for a 4-8 overall mark this season.
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hogsanity

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Re: Foul Calls by the Numbers
« Reply #12 on: January 04, 2018, 10:30:39 am »

Through Wednesday's games, there have been 12 games in the SEC basketball season.  To date, 251 fouls have been called on the visiting team and 195 on the home team for an average disparity of +5 in favor of the home team per contest.  The +15 disparity in Arkansas@MSU game is the largest difference of the season.  The second largest differential is +11 Ole Miss@Georgia last night.  There have been 2 games in which the home team was called for more fouls that the visitors: Texas A&M@Alabama (20-19) and Kentucky@LSU (14-10).  But road teams fared well last night going 2-1 for a 4-8 overall mark this season.

wow only 24 total fouls in the ky/lsu game?
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ShadowHawg

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Re: Foul Calls by the Numbers
« Reply #13 on: January 04, 2018, 12:26:34 pm »

Pearl Ball gets players to the line and Tenn fouls a lot.

Florida and A&M don't foul a lot in general.

MSU doesn't foul a lot.  We do. 

Would need to compare to other conferences.  We did this comparison a few seasons ago and the SEC was worst of the power conferences in terms of fouls called and disparity home team vs road.  But part of that was quality of the league and coaching styles.  We have some coaches who use the FT line like Pearl and Fox to generate offense.  UK got to the line because of dribble drive and offensive rebounding.

Including this State game. We have only committed 1 more foul than our opponents all season.

Including this State game we have still shot more ft's than our opponents, by nearly 20.

We played a tough non con as well. So the stats coming into the Miss St are pretty representative of what the season will play out to be. Miss St only played bums so their are inflated to say the least.

We get to the line more than our opponents on average. We foul about as much as our opponents on average.

I think we will see as this season plays out that this game was not typical.
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nesjunk

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Re: Foul Calls by the Numbers
« Reply #14 on: January 04, 2018, 12:31:30 pm »

wow only 24 total fouls in the ky/lsu game?

Kentucky had only 4 total fouls with about 14 minutes to play in the game...
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hogsanity

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Re: Foul Calls by the Numbers
« Reply #15 on: January 04, 2018, 12:32:01 pm »

Including this State game. We have only committed 1 more foul than our opponents all season.

Including this State game we have still shot more ft's than our opponents, by nearly 20.

We played a tough non con as well. So the stats coming into the Miss St are pretty representative of what the season will play out to be. Miss St only played bums so their are inflated to say the least.

We get to the line more than our opponents on average. We foul about as much as our opponents on average.

I think we will see as this season plays out that this game was not typical.

Here is a question, why do refs, refs who call in multiple conferences, always seem to call more fouls in sec games than when they call in say the aac conf usa or some other league? Are they being told to call it a certain way?
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Atlhogfan1

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Re: Foul Calls by the Numbers
« Reply #16 on: January 04, 2018, 12:41:39 pm »

Including this State game. We have only committed 1 more foul than our opponents all season.

Including this State game we have still shot more ft's than our opponents, by nearly 20.

We played a tough non con as well. So the stats coming into the Miss St are pretty representative of what the season will play out to be. Miss St only played bums so their are inflated to say the least.

We get to the line more than our opponents on average. We foul about as much as our opponents on average.

I think we will see as this season plays out that this game was not typical.

I doubt it will be typical.  Will be interested to see what happens when they host Tennessee although that is a long time off. 
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hawgfan4life

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Re: Foul Calls by the Numbers
« Reply #17 on: January 04, 2018, 10:04:34 pm »

AR shot significantly higher percentage in 2 and 3 pt shooting while getting off 3 more total shots.  Rebounds, turnovers, blocks, assists, etc were ALL irrelevant to the fact we shot a higher percentage of 2and3 point shots with more attempts.  THE DIFFERENCE was free throws!  AR might have fouled more and Miss ST may have played more sound with fewer dumb fouls.  However, not to the tune of 40 to 12!  Not to the tune that 50% of all 2 pt shots for Miss ST were fouls like it was called.  They are good on defense, but not that good.   
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