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Author Topic: The difference  (Read 1005 times)

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niels_boar

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The difference
« on: January 02, 2018, 11:12:42 pm »

You can pretty much start and end the discussion with 40 to 12 on FTAs and 5 of 12 for us.  MSU is #1 in the SEC in not fouling.  However, they are also next to last at getting to the line.  40 FTAs.  I'll leave it at that. 

Yes, we rebounded poorly on the defensive end but so did they.  We rebounded 37% of our misses.  They rebounded 42% of theirs.  It didn't decide the game.  It was a pittance by comparison, though we might have overcome the incredible free throw discrepancy with a better effort on the boards.  We also lost TOs, which was a much bigger deal because we try to win that decisively.

The SEC is going to be a gauntlet.  So, get used to it.  By my numbers MSU came in as the 3rd best defensive team in the SEC.  If their offense is going to get propped up at the FT line, they will be tough in their building but will frequently get pummeled on the road. 

On to Auburn.  It's a long season.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2018, 11:23:35 pm by niels_boar »
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rzrbackramsfan

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Re: The difference
« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2018, 12:25:02 am »

That all makes sense.
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hogginbama

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Re: The difference
« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2018, 08:32:59 am »

It will be a gauntlet because that is what the front office wants. Officials call games like this in order to allow teams, that would typically be blown out, a chance to win and pad their record. This helps at the end of the year during tourney selection time. For teams on the bubble, we already know who some of them are, they get equally called games on the road which allows them a good chance to get some road wins and then make the tourney. Watch closely this year and you will see it. More times than not, a visiting team will be screwed on the calls like last night...as their record moves to possibly missing the tourney, the calls will equal out and their road winning percentage will increase.
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Little Lady Back

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Re: The difference
« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2018, 08:40:36 am »

41% from the free throw line.

$tate 40 free throws to Hogs12. 

Hogs had 6 more turnovers than State.

Barford played 38 minutes and was 4/15 and 0/6 behind the arc.

Our bench has got to step-it-up. Macon, Barford, and Gafford cannot do it all. The absence of CJís shots falling is hurting and I donít even know where to begin with ThompsonÖ
Bottom line, It was a bad game and a very disappointing loss. Yes, there were bad calls last night, but whatís new? You have to be able to overcome that and we did not do that. We did not play together as a team. We had individuals trying to do too much. This game should have been a win but instead we go home with a loss. With that being said, the game still came down to the last shot (unfortunately, it was a bad one). We would have probably lost this game by 10 last year. It sucks but there is no need to panic, fire any coaches, or meltdown just yet. There is a lot of basketball left and Arkansas plays their best in February and March.

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soso

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Re: The difference
« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2018, 08:46:19 am »

We are not good enough at the 1,2, and 5 to make up for our 3 and 4 positions away from home and against good teams. We are two forwards away from taking the next step.
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FineAsSwine

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Re: The difference
« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2018, 09:35:13 am »

41% from the free throw line.

$tate 40 free throws to Hogs12. 

Hogs had 6 more turnovers than State.

Barford played 38 minutes and was 4/15 and 0/6 behind the arc.

Our bench has got to step-it-up. Macon, Barford, and Gafford cannot do it all. The absence of CJís shots falling is hurting and I donít even know where to begin with ThompsonÖ
Bottom line, It was a bad game and a very disappointing loss. Yes, there were bad calls last night, but whatís new? You have to be able to overcome that and we did not do that. We did not play together as a team. We had individuals trying to do too much. This game should have been a win but instead we go home with a loss. With that being said, the game still came down to the last shot (unfortunately, it was a bad one). We would have probably lost this game by 10 last year. It sucks but there is no need to panic, fire any coaches, or meltdown just yet. There is a lot of basketball left and Arkansas plays their best in February and March.

Good summation. Also, the longest post I've seen from you. I'm going to take a page out of your book and stay on an even keel (until the next loss) haha.
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Kevin

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Re: The difference
« Reply #6 on: January 03, 2018, 09:45:12 am »

points off turnovers msu 19 hogs 9
2nd chance points msu 16 hogs 9
fastbreak points msu 10 hogs 4
offensive rebounds 17

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BannerMountainMan

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Re: The difference
« Reply #7 on: January 03, 2018, 09:49:35 am »

points off turnovers msu 19 hogs 9
2nd chance points msu 16 hogs 9
fastbreak points msu 10 hogs 4
offensive rebounds 17
field goals Ark +5
Fouls 26 to 11
FTs 40 to 12

Doesn't add up no matter what level you playing
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Kevin

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Re: The difference
« Reply #8 on: January 03, 2018, 09:52:16 am »

field goals Ark +5
Fouls 26 to 11
FTs 40 to 12

Doesn't add up no matter what level you playing

you don't play defense or rebound fouls are going to pile up
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BannerMountainMan

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Re: The difference
« Reply #9 on: January 03, 2018, 09:56:15 am »

you don't play defense or rebound fouls are going to pile up
rebounds were 39 to 39
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Kevin

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Re: The difference
« Reply #10 on: January 03, 2018, 09:56:59 am »

rebounds were 39 to 39

17 offensive rebounds for msu
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bigred223

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Re: The difference
« Reply #11 on: January 03, 2018, 09:59:22 am »

17 offensive rebounds for msu

How many threes did they brick? That always helps.
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LA Football fan

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Re: The difference
« Reply #12 on: January 03, 2018, 10:23:06 am »

17 offensive rebounds for msu

12 offensive rebounds for us for a negative 5 difference.  I guess that truly explains the 28 free throw difference, the fact they got 5 more offensive rebounds than we did!  Even if they were fouled on EVERY offensive rebound they had over us, that is  only a  10 free throw difference, which still doesn't explain the OTHER 18 extra free throws they were afforded.  Bottom line, the refs were blatantly bad in favor of MSU and no other explanation is needed.  We shot well enough to win and rebounded well enough to win, especially when playing on the road.  What we couldn't control was refs blowing a whistle on one end of the court and swallowing it on the  other end of the court.
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Atlhogfan1

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Re: The difference
« Reply #13 on: January 03, 2018, 10:40:37 am »

On the season, MSU is 6th in college basketball in fewest fouls per game at 14.8.  11 last night.

Hogs 277th at 20 per game.  26 last night. 

Disparity was surprising but it wasn't out of the realm of possibility.  The only bigger difference between teams in conference is Miss St to Tennessee. 

Part of what makes conference so different is the prep and scouting coaching staffs do.  I'm sure Howland made it a point to remind the crew how we play.  Its what coaches should do. 
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hogsanity

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Re: The difference
« Reply #14 on: January 03, 2018, 10:50:46 am »

On the season, MSU is 6th in college basketball in fewest fouls per game at 14.8.  11 last night.

Hogs 277th at 20 per game.  26 last night. 

Disparity was surprising but it wasn't out of the realm of possibility.  The only bigger difference between teams in conference is Miss St to Tennessee. 

Part of what makes conference so different is the prep and scouting coaching staffs do.  I'm sure Howland made it a point to remind the crew how we play.  Its what coaches should do. 

It has always been a bad situation for the Hogs when they play teams that can get to the rack, and that get offensive boards.
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hogsanity

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Re: The difference
« Reply #15 on: January 03, 2018, 10:52:49 am »

field goals Ark +5
Fouls 26 to 11
FTs 40 to 12

Doesn't add up no matter what level you playing

what fuels Arkansas offense? Fast break points and turning over the other team. Last night Hogs were -6 on fast break points and -10 on pts off turnovers. Those are two stats the Hogs almost have to win to win games.
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niels_boar

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Re: The difference
« Reply #16 on: January 04, 2018, 11:55:06 am »

you don't play defense or rebound fouls are going to pile up

1. The correlation between offensive rebounding and FTA rate for all of college basketball is low (0.13) for all teams last year.  In other words, teams that board better on the offensive glass are predicted to shoot only slightly more FTAs.  In fact, the two categories are almost independent of one another.

2.  As I pointed out, we rebounded almost as high a percentage of our misses as they did.  Hence, if that were the case, the difference should have been much less than 40 - 12, even taking into account that we made a higher percentage of our shots.
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niels_boar

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Re: The difference
« Reply #17 on: January 04, 2018, 12:33:03 pm »

On the season, MSU is 6th in college basketball in fewest fouls per game at 14.8.  11 last night.

Hogs 277th at 20 per game.  26 last night. 

Disparity was surprising but it wasn't out of the realm of possibility.  The only bigger difference between teams in conference is Miss St to Tennessee. 

Part of what makes conference so different is the prep and scouting coaching staffs do.  I'm sure Howland made it a point to remind the crew how we play.  Its what coaches should do.

Raw fouls per games ignores that we had played an infinitely tougher offensive schedule than MSU and that we play at a faster pace for more possessions per game.  You also have to take into account how often the other team normally gets to the line.

When you take into account how often our opponents have typically gotten to the line per possession against the rest of their schedule, we are almost exactly SEC average at putting teams on the line.  We haven't been particularly fouly this season. Likewise, we are slightly above SEC average at getting to the line per possession. Taking all relevant factors into account, MSU still ranks #1 in the SEC at not putting opponents on the line per possession, but they have been equally deficient at getting to the line, almost 1.5 standard deviations below SEC average after normalizing for how often their opponents typically foul.

Of our opponents this season, only Samford, Oral Roberts, and CSU-Baker have a lower FT rate on the season than MSU, and that includes MSU's incredible FT outburst on Tuesday.  By contrast, the MSU game was BY FAR our fouliest game.  MSU shot a FTA every friggin' 1.7 possessions.  Tennessee has gotten to the line far more often than MSU this season and was rewarded with FTAs at half that rate against us.  In fact, by our fouling average on the season we should have surrendered 20 FTAs in that number of possessions, and MSU is worse at getting to the line than almost all our other opponents.

So, no, there is no way in hell that you can run the numbers and come up with predicting a 40 - 12 FT discrepancy in that game.  The 40 FTAs is a huge outlier both for them and us.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2018, 12:47:39 pm by niels_boar »
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Atlhogfan1

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Re: The difference
« Reply #18 on: January 04, 2018, 12:38:50 pm »

Raw fouls per games ignores that we had played an infinitely tougher offensive schedule than MSU and that we play at a faster pace for more possessions per game.  You also have to take into account how often the other team normally gets to the line.

When you take into account how often our opponents have typically gotten to the line per possession against the rest of their schedule, we are almost exactly SEC average.  We haven't been particularly fouly this season. Likewise, we are slightly above SEC average at getting to the line per possession. Taking all relevant factors into account, MSU still ranks #1 in the SEC at not putting opponents on the line per possession, but they have been equally deficient at getting to the line, almost 1.5 standard deviations below SEC average after normalizing for how often their opponents typically foul.

Of our opponents this season, only Samford and Oral Roberts have a lower FT rate on the season than MSU, and that includes MSU's incredible FT outburst on Tuesday.  By contrast, the NSU gamewas BY FAR our fouliest game.  MSU shot a FTA every friggin' 1.7 possessions.  Tennessee has gotten to the line far more often than MSU and was rewarde with FTAs at half the rate against us.  In fact, by our average on the season we should have surrendered 20 FTAs in that number of possessions, and MSU is worse at getting to the line than almost all our other opponents.

So, no, there is no way in hell that you can run the numbers and come up with predicting a 40 - 12 FT discrepancy in that game.  The 40 FTAs is a huge outlier both for them and us.

Stop crying.  It is why I said the disparity was surprising.  And I didn't say it was predictable. 

We haven't been fouly this season?  So far this season 23.4% on fouls per defensive play.  Last season 24.3%.  207th in college basketball.  For us, maybe that is pretty good.  Fouls per possession 26.2%.  Last season 28%.  Little better but we just got into conference play. 209th in college basketball.
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hogsanity

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Re: The difference
« Reply #19 on: January 04, 2018, 12:43:12 pm »

Stop crying.  It is why I said the disparity was surprising.  And I didn't say it was predictable. 

We haven't been fouly this season?  So far this season 23.4% on fouls per defensive play.  Last season 24.3%.  207th in college basketball.  For us, maybe that is pretty good.  Fouls per possession 26.2%.  Last season 28%.  Little better but we just got into conference play. 209th in college basketball.

And for those wondering why Mike does not get mad at the refs, Mike knows we are going to foul alot, teams that rely on pressure and steals just foul more, it is the nature of the way the play.  Just like with not rebounding particularly well, he hopes to compensate with turnovers and fast breaks. Tues night the Hogs lost the TO and fast break point battle.

The numbers above show the Hogs foul alot, and always have.
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Atlhogfan1

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Re: The difference
« Reply #20 on: January 04, 2018, 12:53:41 pm »

And for those wondering why Mike does not get mad at the refs, Mike knows we are going to foul alot, teams that rely on pressure and steals just foul more, it is the nature of the way the play.  Just like with not rebounding particularly well, he hopes to compensate with turnovers and fast breaks. Tues night the Hogs lost the TO and fast break point battle.

The numbers above show the Hogs foul alot, and always have.

We have a reputation - somewhat earned.  And officials and opposing players are reminded of it when we play on the road.  Is it fair?  No. 

I saw our guards especially Macon react to contact quite a bit from MSU but didn't get calls.  They were being physical with them on and away from the ball.  We got no favors. Still had a chance to overcome it.  Hopefully Pearl Ball won't result into an ugly 60+ FTA game. 
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hogsanity

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Re: The difference
« Reply #21 on: January 04, 2018, 01:05:04 pm »

We have a reputation - somewhat earned.  And officials and opposing players are reminded of it when we play on the road.  Is it fair?  No. 

I saw our guards especially Macon react to contact quite a bit from MSU but didn't get calls.  They were being physical with them on and away from the ball.  We got no favors. Still had a chance to overcome it.  Hopefully Pearl Ball won't result into an ugly 60+ FTA game. 

Maybe I dreamed it, but it seems like the last 3 times AR and Aub played the game has had pretty good flow because both teams play similar pace and style.

Ar tends to foul alot more when they have to play half court D for more than 10 or 15 seconds. We have to lead the world in fouls with under 5 on the shot clock.
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niels_boar

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Re: The difference
« Reply #22 on: January 04, 2018, 01:17:38 pm »

Stop crying.  It is why I said the disparity was surprising.  And I didn't say it was predictable. 

We haven't been fouly this season?  So far this season 23.4% on fouls per defensive play.  Last season 24.3%.  207th in college basketball.  For us, maybe that is pretty good.  Fouls per possession 26.2%.  Last season 28%.  Little better but we just got into conference play. 209th in college basketball.

I've run the numbers strictly on surrendered FTAs per possession versus mean FTAs per possession of opponents.  Fouls don't really matter except for individual players until the other team starts getting to the line.  We've been pretty good at backing off after we get to the bonus. Only Alabama and Tennessee in the SEC have played schedules in which their opponents tend to get to the line (whomever they are playing) more often than ours have.  When you plot the possessions per FTA that each SEC team surrenders this season versus the mean possessions per FTA of their opponents, we fall right on the regression line, i.e. SEC average.  Average is good for our style of defense, not great but good.  The same defense will surrender more FTAs if they play teams that get to the line more often on average. MSU's opponents have gotten to the line against their entire schedule the least often this season in the SEC.

You said the disparity was "within the realm of possibility".  No, it wasn't unless you have an extremely loose sense of the realm of possibility that basically includes outliers of all probability.  No 90% confidence interval would include 40 FTAs for MSU against us.  It's within the realm of possibility that I will walk downstairs tomorrow morning and Kate Beckinsale will be making me pancakes, but I'm not expecting that to happen either.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2018, 02:12:10 pm by niels_boar »
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niels_boar

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Re: The difference
« Reply #23 on: January 04, 2018, 01:32:44 pm »

SEC in not sending opponents to the line:

Elite: (0.6 to 1.8 standard deviations above regression line)
1. MSU
2. Texas A&M
3. UK
4. Mizzou

Scrum in the middle: (0.2 (above) to -0.2 (below) standard deviations relative to the regression line)
5. UGA
6. Bama
7. Ole Miss
8. UT
9. Ark

Deficient: (-0.6 to -1.7 standard deviations below the regression line)
10. UF
11. Vandy
12. LSU
13. Auburn
14. USC

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niels_boar

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Re: The difference
« Reply #24 on: January 04, 2018, 02:22:13 pm »

SEC in getting to the line:

Elite: (0.5 to 1.8 standard deviations above regression line)
1. UGA
2. Vandy
3. Bama
4. Auburn

Scrum in the middle: (0.2 (above) to -0.3 (below) standard deviations relative to the regression line)
5. USC
6. UK
7. Ole Miss
8. Ark
9. Mizzo
10. UF

Deficient: (-0.88 to -1.53 standard deviations below the regression line)
11. UT
12. LSU
13./14. MSU, AM
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ShadowHawg

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Re: The difference
« Reply #25 on: January 04, 2018, 02:25:29 pm »

And for those wondering why Mike does not get mad at the refs, Mike knows we are going to foul alot, teams that rely on pressure and steals just foul more, it is the nature of the way the play.  Just like with not rebounding particularly well, he hopes to compensate with turnovers and fast breaks. Tues night the Hogs lost the TO and fast break point battle.

The numbers above show the Hogs foul alot, and always have.

The biggest reason MA doesn't cry at refs is because it doesn't do any good. You are a ref aren't you?

If the coach starts placing focus on the reffing his players will follow suit. Players can't focus on the reffing and the game plan.

Also, fouling "a lot" is as much about number of possessions as anything. Comparing one team to another in just static numbers is almost meaningless. Virginia pays a plodding style, they should have way fewer fouls as a result.

In our games specifically, our opponents foul as much as we do. So why complain?
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Atlhogfan1

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Re: The difference
« Reply #26 on: January 04, 2018, 02:31:06 pm »

The biggest reason MA doesn't cry at refs is because it doesn't do any good. You are a ref aren't you?

If the coach starts placing focus on the reffing his players will follow suit. Players can't focus on the reffing and the game plan.

Also, fouling "a lot" is as much about number of possessions as anything. Comparing one team to another in just static numbers is almost meaningless. Virginia pays a plodding style, they should have way fewer fouls as a result.

In our games specifically, our opponents foul as much as we do. So why complain?

Fouls per possession account for it.  We still foul frequently compared.  You are correct our opponents have fouled about as frequently in our matchups.  MSU an exception. 
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ShadowHawg

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Re: The difference
« Reply #27 on: January 04, 2018, 02:34:57 pm »

Fouls per possession account for it.  We still foul frequently compared.  You are correct our opponents have fouled about as frequently in our matchups.  MSU an exception.

Fouls per possession is a much better measure as you have stated. It's a dynamic analysis of fouling rather than just looking at totals and drawing conclusions.
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Atlhogfan1

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Re: The difference
« Reply #28 on: January 04, 2018, 02:38:48 pm »

Again, its our reputation in our conference that works against us on the road as far as defensive fouls.

Now MSU being allowed to be physical with us and us not getting to the line was something else.

Read an article on KU earlier and how they aren't getting to the line at all this season. 
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hogsanity

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Re: The difference
« Reply #29 on: January 04, 2018, 02:40:38 pm »

The biggest reason MA doesn't cry at refs is because it doesn't do any good. You are a ref aren't you?

If the coach starts placing focus on the reffing his players will follow suit. Players can't focus on the reffing and the game plan.

Also, fouling "a lot" is as much about number of possessions as anything. Comparing one team to another in just static numbers is almost meaningless. Virginia pays a plodding style, they should have way fewer fouls as a result.

In our games specifically, our opponents foul as much as we do. So why complain?

Of course it does not do any good, but what good would it do to tell the " Mike needs to get mad, get tossed, throw his coat be an as^ " people that think it does.

I think the game Tues was an anomaly, and I doubt we see that FT spread again, but I expect we will see several more games where the opponent shoots significantly more ft's than do the Hogs. USUALLY the Hogs opponents foul about as often as the Hogs when they play, BUT every once in a while the opponent will not foul as much and we saw that Tuesday night. MSu just does not foul alot, and the season stats bear that out.
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hogsanity

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Re: The difference
« Reply #30 on: January 04, 2018, 02:41:12 pm »

Again, its our reputation in our conference that works against us on the road as far as defensive fouls.

Now MSU being allowed to be physical with us and us not getting to the line was something else.

Read an article on KU earlier and how they aren't getting to the line at all this season. 

From what I have seen KY shoots a ton of jump shots too.
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Biggus Piggus

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Re: The difference
« Reply #31 on: January 04, 2018, 03:56:56 pm »

Letís not give anyone having a bad game 38 minutes how about?
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niels_boar

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Re: The difference
« Reply #32 on: January 04, 2018, 04:59:29 pm »

Letís not give anyone having a bad game 38 minutes how about?

Barford has had a history of not doing much and then exploding.  So, I'm not inclined to criticize CMA for sticking with him.  One problem that we have had in the first two SEC games is that the starters have not gotten any separation. As a result, CMA has had a quick hook with the bench.  Maybe Jones should have gotten more time to see if he could work his way into the game, but he didn't score in 10 minutes.  Hall has looked shaky on O, and we have played in theory two of the three best defensive teams in the SEC.  He might settle down against a less adept defense.  The other option would be Bailey on the wing with Cook or Thomas at PF.  That might have paid dividends, but Thomas and Cook scored 2 points in 22 minutes.  It's not like CMA had obvious options for sitting the SEC's third-leading scorer in a tight game.

My criticism of strategy is not going to the zone more given the way in which dribble penetration was being called.  Drive, fall down, go to the FT line.  The close calls fed into us only forcing 7 TOs against a team that's not especially good at handling.  We had to run away on D to avoid a foul.  MSU probably couldn't have made enough contested shots to win if we had packed the lane, but maybe they heat up from the perimeter.  The one bunny TO we got was Bailey in the zone.
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