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Author Topic: Sometimes those STARS do lie  (Read 4702 times)

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DeltaBoy

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Re: Sometimes those STARS do lie
« Reply #50 on: December 17, 2017, 12:47:28 pm »

http://www.vcweplayhard.com/sports/fball/2017-18/bios/town_ricky_d6qf?view=gamelog&pos=qb

It is hard to figure out how the evaluation of so many can be so far off sometimes.

For comparison, the QB on the team with 2100 yards was originally an 82 three star who went to Boise and transferred.


Yes we had a kid here under Nutt that was a Bust at AN.
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Bash

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Re: Sometimes those STARS do lie
« Reply #51 on: December 19, 2017, 11:29:11 pm »

My associate who I don't need to name had a son rated as a 2 star, he knew one of the recruiting service evaluators who told him for xxx dollars I can have your son re-evaluated up a star, since you prob don't understand why that matters, I'll explain. The difference between 2 star and 3 star players in recruit is the level of the schools they get interest from

On re-reading my post, sorry if I came across as too harsh. Intonation is lost in message boards. 

My point is that the idea that a financially poor recruit can somehow buy stars is hard for me to believe.

What does it cost for a 2* to become a 3*?  A 4*?  These are poor high school kids for the most part.

It just doesn't make sense.  I don't doubt that your buddy told you that.  But are you really saying that recruiting services are offering to upgrade a kids a star rating or two for cash?  Recruiting services survive by trying to be accurate in their ratings.  You are suggesting that they are willing to compromise their reputation for whatever small amount of cash they can get out of poor high school kids?

Based on what you've said, you are also suggesting that P5 schools use rating services to decide what athletes to pay attention to or not.  That implies that P5 coaches are too lazy to evaluate on their own, and instead use 24/7 or some such service to decide who to look at.  Do you really believe that?  Are you suggesting that say, a coach at Arkansas, refuses to watch film on an Arkansas 2*, but as soon as 24/7 marks them as a 3*, now they'll watch the film???

The other problem is that your associate sounds like the average parent of an athlete who thinks their kid is better than they are. You know the type.  "My kid isn't starting because the family of the starter is friends with the coach."  It wouldn't be suprising for a parent to say other kids are rated higher than their kid because the other kids "pay" the recruiting services.

Oh and my associate owns his own oil and gas company so yeah I guess he does pump gas!

So your associate is flush with cash, then.  So why then isn't his son rated a 5* since stars are available for purchase?
« Last Edit: December 19, 2017, 11:49:57 pm by Bash »
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Possible Oatmeal

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Re: Sometimes those STARS do lie
« Reply #52 on: December 20, 2017, 07:08:12 am »



It just doesn't make sense.  I don't doubt that your buddy told you that.  But are you really saying that recruiting services are offering to upgrade a kids a star rating or two for cash?  Recruiting services survive by trying to be accurate in their ratings.  You are suggesting that they are willing to compromise their reputation for whatever small amount of cash they can get out of poor high school kids?



It makes perfect sense.  There are simply way too many players for a couple of small time guys trying to shake down a little cash from a player to have a meaningful effect on the recruiting services' racket of basing most of their evaluations on the past reputations of the schools and coaches that are recruiting them.  It doesn't make sense for the services themselves to sanction this kind of thing, sure, but I 100% believe that a few guys get an offer like that from representative of one of those services.  I'd be blown away if it never happened after living on this earth as long as I have.
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BallHog1

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Re: Sometimes those STARS do lie
« Reply #53 on: December 20, 2017, 08:04:09 am »

To be clear, stars aren't "bought" directly.  However, getting rated by recruiting services is an expensive proposition.  The 3-star range is where the wide range of talent exists.  Here's how the system works:

Ranking services don't have to do anything to identify 5-star talent.  The media does that for them.  Four stars are the best of the rest of undeniablly talented players with incredible bodies, film and stats.  Those who follow high school football know who they are.  Four and five star players are invited to elite camps with all expenses paid in many cases. 

Three stars usually don't get ranked without starting the camp process by the summer before their sophomore year.  Junior at latest.  Camp registration fees and travel expenses are significant.  It is possible to spend the cost of a college education on the college football recruiting process.  In order to be noticed at "elite" camps, it is essential to be connected to a players' representative organization.  These organizations provide training designed to maximize performance in camp drills.  They also serve as liasons between the camp organizers and obtain better positioning for their players at camps.  A player may only get two reps at a camp, so positioning is important.  Players generally pay for reps based upon some sort of sliding scale depending upon the ability to pay and how bad the rep wants to be associated with the player.

Players have little chance to become rated as a 3-star without participating in camps.  High school coaches have no input whatsoever into the rating system.  High school coaches point their better players in the direction of the camps and take calls from college coaches and meet with them when they visit campus.  High school coaches are generally not a proactive source in recruiting as they once were. 

Players are generally rated by their body type and performance in camp drills.  Swag does influence the process.  Race does influence the process depending upon the position.  A white defensive back has virtually no chance of being rated highly no matter his measurables. White linemen, QBs and TEs may be helped a bit .  There are almost no black specialists.  We know these stereotypes exist simply by observation, but they are openly discussed in the recruiting process by coaches and parents of both races and accepted as reality.

So, a player can become a 3-star simply by working the camp system properly with the right representatives.  That doesn't mean they are not great athletes.  They can't get noticed without having exceptional bodies and demonstrating extraordinary athleticism.  However, no one knows from camp whether a player can block, tackle, run a disciplined route, wants to hit in pads, or even knows where to line up.  Camps don't tell services anything about a player's desire or football IQ.  Stats may influence ratings later, but a camp star seldom gets checked later for stats to prove up the measurables and eyeball test he passed during the summer.  So - now you know how so many three stars get to campus without knowing how to block or tackle.

Coaches know how the system works.  They watch film, talk to high school  coaches, watch practices and games, etc.  They know for the most part who the best players are.  The problem is there aren't enough real three stars to go around.  That's where you have to look at offer lists to know who the best player are.  A three star without offers from other P5 upper tier schools is probably not going to help Arkansas much.  But many coaches would rather hope they can "coach up" a 3-star physical specimen than give a scholarship to an unrated guy they know can play football.  A lot of this has to do with speed and physicality.  A guy can be a great fundamental football player and still not be able to play at the SEC level.  On the other hand, a three star can be a great athlete but a terrible football player with no desire.  I'm afraid we have seen some of those under Bielema.

There are still a few Max Emfingers out there, but no one pays much attention to them.  They do influence the big services because the services know they know what they are doing.  But by and large ratings will be controlled by a huge industry driven by up to the second demand from fans for information, including social media directly from players.

That's my best description based upon recent personal experience with my son and other fathers with theirs.  It is not intended to be an idictment of the process itself, only an explanation of why the rating services can be unreliable once the 4 and 5 stars and 3 stars with solid offer lists are gone.
Have a friend who experienced this with his son not on the div 1 level but the same idea. You are dead on.
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TuCanSam

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Re: Sometimes those STARS do lie
« Reply #54 on: December 20, 2017, 09:22:37 am »

Seriously?  Purchased for what? Bitcoins? 

The more traffic from team fans give the website the higher the rankings of that team. I know this to be true for Rivals and 247 sports. Also yes, stars can be purchased. It is  business. I know LSU, BAMA, and Florida all buy stars to get fans more hyped for the season. More hyped=more money later
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hogsanity

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Re: Sometimes those STARS do lie
« Reply #55 on: December 20, 2017, 09:34:17 am »

Rating services can not measure a players ability to adapt to the college game. Can a Wr who ran sloppy routes in HS, but got away with it just because he was just physically that much better than the defenders, learn to run good crisp routes? Can a LB used to covering HS te's adapt to covering TE's that are going to play in the nfl? Can a QB learn the playbook, read college defenses, make good choices on when to throw it away or eat the football? That is just on the field. What about how they handle being away from home, being responsible for going to meetings, workouts, etc? No rating service can analyze those things.
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Bubba's Bruisers

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Re: Sometimes those STARS do lie
« Reply #56 on: December 20, 2017, 09:37:58 am »

Rating services can not measure a players ability to adapt to the college game. Can a Wr who ran sloppy routes in HS, but got away with it just because he was just physically that much better than the defenders, learn to run good crisp routes? Can a LB used to covering HS te's adapt to covering TE's that are going to play in the nfl? Can a QB learn the playbook, read college defenses, make good choices on when to throw it away or eat the football? That is just on the field. What about how they handle being away from home, being responsible for going to meetings, workouts, etc? No rating service can analyze those things.

Most coaches can't either.
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hogsanity

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Re: Sometimes those STARS do lie
« Reply #57 on: December 20, 2017, 09:39:41 am »

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Bubba's Bruisers

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Re: Sometimes those STARS do lie
« Reply #58 on: December 20, 2017, 09:59:53 am »

Agreed.

It's all simply about the math.  Probablility. 

If 4* recuits have say a hit rate of 50%...ie 50% of them end up living up to their 4* rating in college...then the key is to get as many as possible.  So if you're Bama getting 20 - 4* players each class, while you're UA getting 5 - 4* players, then the math over a 3 or 4 year period gets real easy.

I know, you already know this.  I'm just typing to type.
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Bob Slydell

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Re: Sometimes those STARS do lie
« Reply #59 on: December 20, 2017, 10:36:07 am »


The most succesfull coaches watch film and ignore recruiting rankings.  Gary Patterson is a good example.

I would venture that this describes the vast majority of college coaches.  Stars seem to be more of a marketing concoction geared towards fans.  I doubt many college coaches care much for them.
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bphi11ips

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Re: Sometimes those STARS do lie
« Reply #60 on: December 20, 2017, 11:29:58 am »

It's all simply about the math.  Probablility. 

If 4* recuits have say a hit rate of 50%...ie 50% of them end up living up to their 4* rating in college...then the key is to get as many as possible.  So if you're Bama getting 20 - 4* players each class, while you're UA getting 5 - 4* players, then the math over a 3 or 4 year period gets real easy.

I know, you already know this.  I'm just typing to type.

Four stars are reliable and 5 stars seldom bust, but coaches donít need rating services to find those because they are usually DMac or Oher obvious.
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hogsanity

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Re: Sometimes those STARS do lie
« Reply #61 on: December 20, 2017, 11:36:48 am »

Four stars are reliable and 5 stars seldom bust, but coaches donít need rating services to find those because they are usually DMac or Oher obvious.

Recruiting rankings are for fans so they can do things like watch facebook live to see where a project QB is going to go.
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hogsanity

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Re: Sometimes those STARS do lie
« Reply #62 on: December 20, 2017, 11:53:38 am »

Four stars are reliable and 5 stars seldom bust, but coaches donít need rating services to find those because they are usually DMac or Oher obvious.

Except at QB a 5 star is likely going to be a good player, even if he does not live up to the hype of being a 5 star. A 4 star will likely be above average, a solid contributor. When you get to 3 stars, if they are a "bust" you likely get little or nothing from them except a body for the practice squad.

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bphi11ips

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Re: Sometimes those STARS do lie
« Reply #63 on: December 20, 2017, 12:13:53 pm »

Except at QB a 5 star is likely going to be a good player, even if he does not live up to the hype of being a 5 star. A 4 star will likely be above average, a solid contributor. When you get to 3 stars, if they are a "bust" you likely get little or nothing from them except a body for the practice squad.



QBs are hard to predict period. NFL GMs even have a hard time doing it.
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hogsanity

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Re: Sometimes those STARS do lie
« Reply #64 on: December 20, 2017, 12:58:51 pm »

QBs are hard to predict period. NFL GMs even have a hard time doing it.

Which is why I excluded them. A 5 star WR may not put up huge #'s but is still likely to be a solid WR.
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jabberjawls

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Re: Sometimes those STARS do lie
« Reply #65 on: December 20, 2017, 03:53:36 pm »

Let's hope the stars are lying because we are ranked 75th.
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TNRazorbacker

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Re: Sometimes those STARS do lie
« Reply #66 on: December 20, 2017, 04:45:49 pm »

Stars shouldnt be the lone guage of any single player. Nobody should ever say one player is superior to another simply by counting stars.

But they are an excellent guage of the talent level a team recruits in the aggregate.

Huge difference here and one people routinely just don't get in these conversations.
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