Can we just bust one myth...

[TebowHater]

and that is the myth that someone "needs" HC experience before becoming a P5 coach. Put differently, that if we hire someone with HC experience that it is then less of a gamble than if we hire a star coordinator (e.g., Venables). The reality is there is a huge gamble no matter who you hire.

Let's look at the firings this year:
-Bret Bielema - great success at Wisconsin
-Mike Riley at Nebraska (previous success at Oregon State)
-Butch Jones at Tennessee (previous success at Cincinnati)
-Gary Andersen at Oregon State (previous success at Wisco, Utah State)
-Todd Graham at ASU (previous success at Pitt/Tulsa)

Others that I won't even count because they won a decent number of games (but certainly could be still be counted as they were still fired for not winning enough)
-Kevin Sumlin (previous success at Houston)
-Jim McElwain (previous success at Colorado State)

And lest I forget last year's most obvious example of Charlie Strong at Texas (previous success at Louisville)

Now let's look at where some of the best coaches came from:
-Dabo went from Clemson WR to HC (had interim gig)
-Jimbo Fisher went from FSU DC to HC
-Smart went from Bama DC to UGA HC
-Gary Patterson TCU DC to HC
-Chip Kelley Oregon OC to HC
-Dan Mullen Florida OC to MSU HC
-Mark Richt went from FSU OC to Georgia HC
-Bob Stoops went from Florida DC to OU HC
-Broyles went from GT OC to Mizzou HC then 1 year later to Arkansas HC.
-And Saban went from Cleveland Browns DC to MSU HC (only slightly dif, still no HC experience to big time P5 job).

The only top coaches who started in non-P5 HC jobs are below, however, none of these guys were in a position of a P5 coordinator role when they left to become HC's. That is, they were not P5 coordinators who then needed to go prove themselves in a non-P5 HC position; rather, they were non P5 coordinators and/or not coordinators at all when they were offered their first HC gig. Of course they should take that.
-Meyer (was ND WR coach, zero coordinator experience, and then took a HC job at Bowling Green)
-Peterson (was Boise OC)
-Harbaugh (Raiders QB coach, zero coordinator experience, then University of San Diego HC)

(Only top coach missing from either list imo is Pete Carroll who went from NFL DC to New England Patriots HC, so slightly not comparable, but no HC experience nonetheless)

[greenie]

Good post.

[TebowHater]

Looking at the current CFP top 10 (yes, top 10 will change this week, trend is clear). 7/10 went from coordinators to succesful HC's at P5 schools. Only 1 went from a P5 coordinator to a non-P5 HC job.

Alabama - Nick Saban - Browns DC to MSU HC
Miami - Mark Richt - FSU OC to Georgia HC
Clemson - Dabo Swiney - Clemson WR to Clemson HC
Oklahoma - Lincoln Riley - OU OC to HC
Wisconsin   - Paul Chryst - Wisco OC to Pitt HC
Auburn - Gus - Auburn OC to ASU HC
Georgia - Kirby Smart - Bama OC to UGA HC
Notre Dame - Brian Kelly - Grand Valley State DC to HC
Ohio State   - Urban Meyer - ND WR to Bowling Green HC
Penn State - James Franklin - Maryland OC to Vanderbilt HC

[TrueBlue]

Looking at the current CFP top 10 (yes, top 10 will change this week, trend is clear). 7/10 went from coordinators to succesful HC's at P5 schools. Only 1 went from a P5 coordinator to a non-P5 job.

Alabama - Nick Saban - Browns DC to MSU HC
Miami - Mark Richt - FSU OC to Georgia HC
Clemson - Dabo Swiney - Clemson WR to Clemson HC
Oklahoma - Lincoln Riley - OU OC to HC
Wisconsin   - Paul Chryst - Wisco OC to Pitt HC
Auburn - Gus - Auburn OC to ASU HC
Georgia - Kirby Smart - Bama OC to UGA HC
Notre Dame - Brian Kelly - Grand Valley State DC to HC
Ohio State   - Urban Meyer - ND WR to Bowling Green HC
Penn State - James Franklin - Maryland OC to Vanderbilt HC

Everyone has to come from "somewhere". No one starts out as a head coach.

Only 3 on your list currently came from a coordinator position to the position they have now. (Dabo, Kirby, and Lincoln)

Just like anything, you can slant facts a little to favor your own opinion.

[TebowHater]

Everyone has to come from "somewhere".

But only 3 on your list currently came from a coordinator position to the position they have now. (Dabo, Kirby, and Lincoln)

Just like anything, you can slant facts a little to favor your own opinion.

Not trying to argue at all, but how does that change things? The position they have now is because they were so successful at their other P5 job that they got an even better, more elite P5 job (exception of Richt). What am I missing? I think this further proves my point. If we hired Venables and he was so successful that Bama hired him next when Saban retired (yes, I know that is going to Dabo, just for example) then I would consider that a huge win.

Saban -> upgraded MSU to LSU
Paul Chryst -> Upgraded Pitt to Wisco
James Franklin -> Upgraded from Vandy to Penn State
Mark Richt -> Georgia to Miami (yes he stayed too long but he averaged 10 wins a year there and multiple conference championships), hence getting the Miami job which is more or less same tier

My point is all these people went from no HC experience to successful P5 HC's. In fact, so successful that many of them got even better P5 jobs.

[East TN HAWG]

What about Jack Crowe?  There are more asst coaches that failed as succeeded.   With asst coaches, there is more risk than a established (There is still risk associated with an established HC.). There could also be more upside if the right asst coach is chosen.

For me the risk is too high to hire an asst coach.  We tried that once and lost to the Citidel.  I don't want to go back there again.

[TrueBlue]

Not trying to argue at all, but how does that change things? The position they have now is because they were so successful at their other P5 job that they got an even better, more elite P5 job (exception of Richt). What am I missing? I think this further proves my point. If we hired Venables and he was so successful that Bama hired him next when Saban retired (yes, I know that is going to Dabo, just for example) then I would consider that a huge win.

Saban -> upgraded MSU to LSU
Paul Chryst -> Upgraded Pitt to Wisco
James Franklin -> Upgraded from Vandy to Penn State
Mark Richt -> Georgia to Miami (yes he stayed too long but he averaged 10 wins a year there and multiple conference championships), hence getting the Miami job which is more or less same tier

My point is all these people went from no HC experience to successful P5 HC's. In fact, so successful that many of them got even better P5 jobs.

I know we aren't arguing, just giving opinions.

But just curious, how many didn't start as a position coach somewhere that are currently a HC in the P5?

[TebowHater]

What about Jack Crowe?  There are more asst coaches that failed as succeeded.   With asst coaches, there is more risk than a established (There is still risk associated with an established HC.). There could also be more upside if the right asst coach is chosen.

For me the risk is too high to hire an asst coach.  We tried that once and lost to the Citidel.  I don't want to go back there again.

I would argue this does not prove a coordinator will be successful, but it does prove they are not a guranteed failure.

Similarly, I have no idea how your statement that "there is more risk with asst than established HC" is supported by anything I have seen. How are you coming to that conclusion?

[onebadrubi]

Shhhhhhh.  You are thinking and some can't do that

[TebowHater]

I know we aren't arguing, just giving opinions.

But just curious, how many didn't start as a position coach somewhere that are currently a HC in the P5?

Sure, everyone starts as a position coach. No one is arguing you can make a read of how successful a HC will be coming directly from a position coach, nor is anyone arguing we should hire a position coach. Maybe I am missing something

[b-ball coach]

Agree, experience is nice, but not required to be successful. I would say the position coaches and coordinators have two huge advantages: the hunger and drive to be successful and no past preconceived beliefs about the job. Sometimes past successful leaders rely on a formula that worked in past positions, however it does not match the landscape of the current position.

Many times (in business or sports) guys like Bret, Saban, Kiffin, and Kelly become more successful after being let go or failing. It humbles them and creates a true appreciation for the process. They learn to appreciate the people involved, work smarter, and be flexible enough to change. Experience not required, but some experience can be more beneficial.

[Hugo Bezdek]

As far as experience goes, is there really much more of a "sure thing" than a guy who took Wisconsin to three Rose Bowls? There were no obvious reasons Bielema should have failed here when the hire was made.

[East TN HAWG]

I would argue this does not prove a coordinator will be successful, but it does prove they are not a guranteed failure.

Similarly, I have no idea how your statement that "there is more risk with asst than established HC" is supported by anything I have seen. How are you coming to that conclusion?

I think the reduced risk associated with hiring someone that has actually assumed the responsibilities of being a head coach is common sense.  An assistant coach has never dealt with all the issues of running a program.  Jack Crowe was a good asst coach, but failed miserably.   Helfrich at Oregon was an excellent asst coach under Kelly but failed.  Ron Zook was an excellent asst coach at FL but failed.

There are more of these examples.  Typically, you don't hear about asst coach failures because most P5 colleges don't hire asst coaches because of risk.   Generally, asst coaches go to a small college and work their way up.

[TebowHater]

HAH! Reading about Mullen returning to Florida...made me realize I left him off the list.

OC at Florida before HC at MSU. It worked out alright.

[SooieGeneris]

and that is the myth that someone "needs" HC experience before becoming a P5 coach. Put differently, that if we hire someone with HC experience that it is then less of a gamble than if we hire a star coordinator (e.g., Venables). The reality is there is a huge gamble no matter who you hire.

Let's look at the firings this year:
-Bret Bielema - great success at Wisconsin
-Mike Riley at Nebraska (previous success at Oregon State)
-Butch Jones at Tennessee (previous success at Cincinnati)
-Gary Andersen at Oregon State (previous success at Wisco, Utah State)
-Todd Graham at ASU (previous success at Pitt/Tulsa)

Others that I won't even count because they won a decent number of games (but certainly could be still be counted as they were still fired for not winning enough)
-Kevin Sumlin (previous success at Houston)
-Jim McElwain (previous success at Colorado State)

And lest I forget last year's most obvious example of Charlie Strong at Texas (previous success at Louisville)

Now let's look at where some of the best coaches came from:
-Dabo went from Clemson WR to HC (had interim gig)
-Jimbo Fisher went from FSU DC to HC
-Smart went from Bama DC to UGA HC
-Gary Patterson TCU DC to HC
-Chip Kelley Oregon OC to HC
-Dan Mullen Florida OC to MSU HC
-Mark Richt went from FSU OC to Georgia HC
-Bob Stoops went from Florida DC to OU HC
-Broyles went from GT OC to Mizzou HC then 1 year later to Arkansas HC.
-And Saban went from Cleveland Browns DC to MSU HC (only slightly dif, still no HC experience to big time P5 job).

The only top coaches who started in non-P5 HC jobs are below, however, none of these guys were in a position of a P5 coordinator role when they left to become HC's. That is, they were not P5 coordinators who then needed to go prove themselves in a non-P5 HC position; rather, they were non P5 coordinators and/or not coordinators at all when they were offered their first HC gig. Of course they should take that.
-Meyer (was ND WR coach, zero coordinator experience, and then took a HC job at Bowling Green)
-Peterson (was Boise OC)
-Harbaugh (Raiders QB coach, zero coordinator experience, then University of San Diego HC)

(Only top coach missing from either list imo is Pete Carroll who went from NFL DC to New England Patriots HC, so slightly not comparable, but no HC experience nonetheless)

It is NOT A MYTH! You can point to a few exceptions, but rarely does a guy with no HC experience work out.

Jimbo Fisher. already on staff at FSU as HC in waiting, so he knew the players, knew the conference, knew the lay of the land.

Gary Patterson and Chip Kelly, and Dabo, pretty much the same thing, they just didn't have the title of HC in waiting.

That leaves Stoops, Richt and Smart. Two of those 3 names have one thing in common, UGA. The state of Georgia produces more SEC caliber players in one year than AR does in 5-10.

We don't have anywhere near the same recruiting base.

I can name many names of coordinators who moved into the big chair and FLOPPED!

Does the name Jack Crowe ring a bell? He was very highly regarded as an OC. How did that work out?

How about John Blake at OU? David McWilliams at Texas anyone? How's about Josh McDaniels at Denver? Dennis Allen at Oakland?

Who are these people?  My point exactly.

Every last one of them was considered a hot up and coming assistant coach who was going to be the next big thing as a HC.

In the words of a early 90's pop song: "It's no myth."

[Pig in the Pokey]

What about Jack Crowe?  There are more asst coaches that failed as succeeded.   With asst coaches, there is more risk than a established (There is still risk associated with an established HC.). There could also be more upside if the right asst coach is chosen.

For me the risk is too high to hire an asst coach.  We tried that once and lost to the Citidel.  I don't want to go back there again.

JC was a terrible hire, an absolute reach. It's not like dude was a top coaching candidate at all. He sucked. Everybody knew that hire would fail from the beginning. I was pissed.

[TebowHater]

It is NOT A MYTH! You can point to a few exceptions, but rarely does a guy with no HC experience work out.

It's not a few exceptions, it's literally every top coach.

Looks to me like you keep pointing to one exception, Jack Crowe, which was an absolutely awful hire before it ever happened. It would be like us hiring John Hevesy right now. Would be even worse than hiring Enos as HC.

No college coach you mentioned is literally even from this century.