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Author Topic: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)  (Read 1084 times)

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Michael D Huff AIA

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Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« on: November 08, 2017, 11:42:42 am »

I have seen the 'we are as bad as we've ever been' feeling bouncing around this board this season, and I wanted to take a look at the historic numbers to see what they said about our current futility.

Methodology:

1.  For comparison's sake, I'm only comparing seasons after Frank Broyles took over as head coach (1958). 

2.  I'm using 5 season stretches to compare, using the length of Bielema's tenure as the yardstick.

3.  All games count, regardless of who was coaching.  The object of a competition is to win, so wins are wins regardless of who you were playing.

4.  This study takes place over a sample size of 60 football seasons.

Results:

Best win % in a 5 year period:

1.  1962-66         81.13%           Broyles
     1964-68                               Broyles
3.  1961-65         79.63%           Broyles
4.  1985-89         79.69%           Hatfield
5.  1965-69         77.36%           Broyles
6.  1975-79         76.27%           Broyles (2)/Holtz (3)
7.  1960-64         75.93%           Broyles
8.  1966-70         75.47%           Broyles
9.  1968-72         75.00%           Broyles
     1977-81                               Holtz

Worst win % in a 5 year period:

1.  1990-94         37.50%           Crowe (2)/Kines (1)/Ford (2)
2.  1992-96         42.11%           Crowe (1 game)/Kines (1)/Ford (4)   
3.  1993-97         43.86%           Ford (5)
4.  1991-95         44.83%           Crowe (1)/Kines (1)/Ford (3)
5.  2012-16         46.03%         Smith (1)/Bielema (4)
6.  1989-93         47.37%           Hatfield (1) / Crowe (2) / Kines (1) / Ford (1)
7.  2013-17         48.33%         Bielema (5)
8.  1994-98         50.00%           Ford (4)/Nutt(1)
9.  2011-15         52.38%         Petrino(1)/Smith(1)/Bielema(3)
10. 2004-08        52.46%           Nutt(4)/Herring (1 game)/Petrino(1)

Should we lose the last 3 games of the season, the current 5 year period will fall into a tie for 6th worst.  This would give Bielema the majority of responsibility for the 5th, 6th, and 9th worst 5 year periods in our school's history.

Of the 7 coaches in this study, Bielema ranks 6th in Win%, ahead of only Danny Ford, who coached 3 fewer games. (+.045%)

Conclusion:
We aren't as bad as the 1990-1997 time period, but Ford only lost 4 more games than Bielema has in the same number of seasons. 

And Ford won the SEC West in 1995.


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KennyForAD

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #1 on: November 08, 2017, 11:46:45 am »

It is this year's team that is the worst in history.  If BB stayed for 4 more years, then you'd have a five years stretch of all time horrors.  Really good stuff.  Thanks for sharing it.
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welchog

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2017, 12:33:30 pm »

You're not taking into consideration the fact that BB teams play more games per season than the ones above.  This allows BB to get one more rent-a-win (or not!!!) from lower tiered programs.

Take those 5 games out and his number 7 position would rise to number 3 at 43.64%.
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Michael D Huff AIA

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2017, 12:55:24 pm »

Coaches coach the game in front of them, so that's what I counted.  Win % is win %. 
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welchog

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #4 on: November 08, 2017, 01:11:17 pm »

Coaches coach the game in front of them, so that's what I counted.  Win % is win %. 

So you like skewed data.  Fine.  How about at LEAST comparing conf records.  That would be a more accurate comparison.
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El Puerco Grande

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #5 on: November 08, 2017, 01:24:51 pm »

The original poster simply showed through hard data that as terrible a job as Bielema is doing, things are not "the worst they have ever been". They still stink to high heaven, but the early 90's were statistically worse.
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DeltaBoy

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #6 on: November 08, 2017, 01:30:57 pm »

OH WE SUCK AGAIN!
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Slimgoodman

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #7 on: November 08, 2017, 02:40:18 pm »

So you like skewed data.  Fine.  How about at LEAST comparing conf records.  That would be a more accurate comparison.

Since you don't like skewed data, does BB get any credit since the SEC West that Nutt played in was not comparable to the one BB has been playing in for the last 5 years.

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welchog

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #8 on: November 08, 2017, 03:22:08 pm »

Since you don't like skewed data, does BB get any credit since the SEC West that Nutt played in was not comparable to the one BB has been playing in for the last 5 years.



What's Nutt got to do with this argument?  I'm advocating BB's is statistically at least worse than all but two of all time worst 5 year programs
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welchog

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #9 on: November 08, 2017, 03:25:31 pm »

Since you don't like skewed data, does BB get any credit since the SEC West that Nutt played in was not comparable to the one BB has been playing in for the last 5 years.



But throw in Nutt.  His teams for the most part played strong USCe and Tenn teams on the conf flip side.
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LAGNAF

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #10 on: November 08, 2017, 04:07:37 pm »

But throw in Nutt.  His teams for the most part played strong USCe and Tenn teams on the conf flip side.

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RazorWest

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #11 on: November 08, 2017, 04:12:09 pm »

Since you don't like skewed data, does BB get any credit since the SEC West that Nutt played in was not comparable to the one BB has been playing in for the last 5 years.

This is debatable but the SEC is worse now than it was in Nutt's days.
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theFlyingHog

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #12 on: November 08, 2017, 04:19:59 pm »

This is debatable but the SEC is worse now than it was in Nutt's days.
The top programs have changed. Nutt saw Florida and Tenner at the top, I guess LSU and Georgia also were pretty good at times. MSU was a pushover, OM was ab even with us. UK wasn't great but fought us like we fought LSU 
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HoggyCat

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #13 on: November 08, 2017, 05:53:49 pm »

Not just this coach, but since WW2, we've never had a 6 year span where we didn't have either a 9 win season or share a conference title.

Thanks Jeffi, nice hires.
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Hogs-n-Roses

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #14 on: November 08, 2017, 07:29:36 pm »

There is no frito pie and no 2 year passes.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #15 on: November 08, 2017, 08:20:44 pm »

Not just this coach, but since WW2, we've never had a 6 year span where we didn't have either a 9 win season or share a conference title.

Thanks Jeffi, nice hires.
Well I suspect both Bret and Jeff would be very proud that they've help take us to a place we haven't been in the last 70+ years. Now THAT takes some major talent. :-[ :-[ :-[
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Lady Razorback

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #16 on: November 08, 2017, 08:27:44 pm »

Good information.  The 2011-2015 period was helped by Petrino's 11-2 record.  Obviously you can't throw that out, but that certainly skews it.
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greasy_corner

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #17 on: November 08, 2017, 08:40:05 pm »

Nice post yellowjacket. 

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STLhawg

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #18 on: November 09, 2017, 12:07:02 am »

Quote
Are we as bad as we've ever been?
No, but we can see it from here.
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Jimbob111

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #19 on: November 09, 2017, 12:30:42 am »

I have seen the 'we are as bad as we've ever been' feeling bouncing around this board this season, and I wanted to take a look at the historic numbers to see what they said about our current futility.

Methodology:

1.  For comparison's sake, I'm only comparing seasons after Frank Broyles took over as head coach (1958). 

2.  I'm using 5 season stretches to compare, using the length of Bielema's tenure as the yardstick.

3.  All games count, regardless of who was coaching.  The object of a competition is to win, so wins are wins regardless of who you were playing.

4.  This study takes place over a sample size of 60 football seasons.

Results:

Best win % in a 5 year period:

1.  1962-66         81.13%           Broyles
     1964-68                               Broyles
3.  1961-65         79.63%           Broyles
4.  1985-89         79.69%           Hatfield
5.  1965-69         77.36%           Broyles
6.  1975-79         76.27%           Broyles (2)/Holtz (3)
7.  1960-64         75.93%           Broyles
8.  1966-70         75.47%           Broyles
9.  1968-72         75.00%           Broyles
     1977-81                               Holtz

Worst win % in a 5 year period:

1.  1990-94         37.50%           Crowe (2)/Kines (1)/Ford (2)
2.  1992-96         42.11%           Crowe (1 game)/Kines (1)/Ford (4)   
3.  1993-97         43.86%           Ford (5)
4.  1991-95         44.83%           Crowe (1)/Kines (1)/Ford (3)
5.  2012-16         46.03%         Smith (1)/Bielema (4)
6.  1989-93         47.37%           Hatfield (1) / Crowe (2) / Kines (1) / Ford (1)
7.  2013-17         48.33%         Bielema (5)
8.  1994-98         50.00%           Ford (4)/Nutt(1)
9.  2011-15         52.38%         Petrino(1)/Smith(1)/Bielema(3)
10. 2004-08        52.46%           Nutt(4)/Herring (1 game)/Petrino(1)

Should we lose the last 3 games of the season, the current 5 year period will fall into a tie for 6th worst.  This would give Bielema the majority of responsibility for the 5th, 6th, and 9th worst 5 year periods in our school's history.

Of the 7 coaches in this study, Bielema ranks 6th in Win%, ahead of only Danny Ford, who coached 3 fewer games. (+.045%)

Conclusion:
We aren't as bad as the 1990-1997 time period, but Ford only lost 4 more games than Bielema has in the same number of seasons. 

And Ford won the SEC West in 1995.




If the only measure stick were wins and losses, you might be right about the Razorbacks not currently being as bad as they've ever been.

I would like to see defensive numbers for total yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed, plays of more than 10 yards allowed, etc, over a several year period.

I would also like to see offensive numbers for total yards gained, rushing and passing, number of QB sacks allowed, QB hurries, hits on the QB etc.

I would like to see numbers on turnovers, both takeaways and giveaways.

There is a lot more to being a bad team, or a good team, than just wins and losses sometimes. The other team comes to play as well so sometimes, a good team loses to a bad one. I think the other numbers might provide a better picture into how good or bad this Razorback team is compared to other historic Razorback teams regardless of win/loss percentage.

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hogfan870

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #20 on: November 09, 2017, 12:39:02 am »

Thanks for the research and the good post. However you slice it, this is definitely a low point. I would be interested to see it measured in shorter periods, 3 or 4 years. I think they would show something similar.

I think we can safely say that this is the worst period since the early to mid 90's, and as the OP pointed out, even during that period, we had an SEC west title. If Bielema had won one of those I think more people would have more patience with him now.  He just hasn't had much, if any, significant success to balance all of the failure.
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Augustus

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #21 on: November 09, 2017, 01:25:57 am »

I have seen the 'we are as bad as we've ever been' feeling bouncing around this board this season, and I wanted to take a look at the historic numbers to see what they said about our current futility.

Methodology:

1.  For comparison's sake, I'm only comparing seasons after Frank Broyles took over as head coach (1958). 

2.  I'm using 5 season stretches to compare, using the length of Bielema's tenure as the yardstick.

3.  All games count, regardless of who was coaching.  The object of a competition is to win, so wins are wins regardless of who you were playing.

4.  This study takes place over a sample size of 60 football seasons.

Results:

Best win % in a 5 year period:

1.  1962-66         81.13%           Broyles
     1964-68                               Broyles
3.  1961-65         79.63%           Broyles
4.  1985-89         79.69%           Hatfield
5.  1965-69         77.36%           Broyles
6.  1975-79         76.27%           Broyles (2)/Holtz (3)
7.  1960-64         75.93%           Broyles
8.  1966-70         75.47%           Broyles
9.  1968-72         75.00%           Broyles
     1977-81                               Holtz

Worst win % in a 5 year period:

1.  1990-94         37.50%           Crowe (2)/Kines (1)/Ford (2)
2.  1992-96         42.11%           Crowe (1 game)/Kines (1)/Ford (4)   
3.  1993-97         43.86%           Ford (5)
4.  1991-95         44.83%           Crowe (1)/Kines (1)/Ford (3)
5.  2012-16         46.03%         Smith (1)/Bielema (4)
6.  1989-93         47.37%           Hatfield (1) / Crowe (2) / Kines (1) / Ford (1)
7.  2013-17         48.33%         Bielema (5)
8.  1994-98         50.00%           Ford (4)/Nutt(1)
9.  2011-15         52.38%         Petrino(1)/Smith(1)/Bielema(3)
10. 2004-08        52.46%           Nutt(4)/Herring (1 game)/Petrino(1)

Should we lose the last 3 games of the season, the current 5 year period will fall into a tie for 6th worst.  This would give Bielema the majority of responsibility for the 5th, 6th, and 9th worst 5 year periods in our school's history.

Of the 7 coaches in this study, Bielema ranks 6th in Win%, ahead of only Danny Ford, who coached 3 fewer games. (+.045%)

Conclusion:
We aren't as bad as the 1990-1997 time period, but Ford only lost 4 more games than Bielema has in the same number of seasons. 

And Ford won the SEC West in 1995.


It's not just the number of losses. It's the way we have been losing, under Bielema's direction. Especially since last October.

30 point (or worse) blowouts to Alabama, Auburn, and South Carolina with a 2nd year Coach previously fired by another SEC school.

Allowing an SEC record for most rushing yards allowed in a regular season game, to Auburn... in BIELEMA'S 4TH YEAR. (oh, by the way... was a 56-3 blowout).

Giving up a 17 point halftime lead and losing to a 3-8 Missouri team.

Giving up a 24 point halftime lead and losing by double digits to VaTech.

We had to come back in the final minutes against what should be the worst team in the SEC West, with an interim Head Coach & a backup QB.

WE HAD TO COME BACK IN THE FINAL MINUTES AGAINST A 1ST YEAR FBS TEAM, THE WORST IN THE SUNBELT CONFERENCE, WITH AN INTERIM HEAD COACH AND A BACKUP QB & RB.

Don't just focus on how many losses... also consider the manner with which we're losing now. IN BRET BIELEMA'S 5TH YEAR.

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dfwalumdad

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #22 on: November 09, 2017, 06:00:22 am »

2.  I'm using 5 season stretches to compare, using the length of Bielema's tenure as the yardstick.



no you're cherry picking 5 year periods to try to prove your point.

nice try bert!

in the real world hatfield owns highest winning percentage in program history not the five year hatfield, crowe, kines "years".

of the five coaches that have coached the hogs in my live time for at least two consecutive years, in other words the guys who've actually been the coach and not an interim coach. you know what i'm talking about the 5 guys that everyone on the planet knows were the actual coach of the razorbacks. this is their ranking by winning percentage.

hatfield .............760

broyles..............708

petrino..............667

nutt..................610

fat bert.............483

ford..................447

now those are the facts and they are not in dispute.

when you factor in the the next three loses (but...but... we may not lose those games!....child please) bert will officially become the worst coach by any measure in my lifetime and i'm 56.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2017, 07:05:55 am by dfwalumdad »
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Michael D Huff AIA

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #23 on: November 09, 2017, 12:47:10 pm »

2.  I'm using 5 season stretches to compare, using the length of Bielema's tenure as the yardstick.



no you're cherry picking 5 year periods to try to prove your point.

nice try bert!

in the real world hatfield owns highest winning percentage in program history not the five year hatfield, crowe, kines "years".

of the five coaches that have coached the hogs in my live time for at least two consecutive years, in other words the guys who've actually been the coach and not an interim coach. you know what i'm talking about the 5 guys that everyone on the planet knows were the actual coach of the razorbacks. this is their ranking by winning percentage.

hatfield .............760

broyles..............708

petrino..............667

nutt..................610

fat bert.............483

ford..................447

now those are the facts and they are not in dispute.

when you factor in the the next three loses (but...but... we may not lose those games!....child please) bert will officially become the worst coach by any measure in my lifetime and i'm 56.

Sorry that my methodology went right over your head.  Let me speak slowly so you'll understand.

1.  5 years was chosen as the time period because that's how long CBB has been here.  I originally used 3 years as the time period, but the results were less clear as they were with 5. 

2.  A '5 year period' is just that, 5 years.  2000 2001 2002 2003 and 2004 makes a 5 year period, but so does 2001 2002 2003 2004 and 2005.  It's a sliding scale.  A coach that does his job for only 3 years participates in all or part of 7 different 5 year periods.  Look at Broyles' winning records in the OP.  Several of them overlap in the mid-1960's.

3.  Originally my sample size was every season we have ever played, but it's hard to fault the 1940's teams if they didn't win when men were away at war, or a team from 1925 when the game was completely different than it is now.  I chose Broyles' era to present as 'the modern era'.  I covered so many years so THERE WOULDN'T BE THE POSSIBILITY OF CHERRY PICKING given the methodology.  THE POSSIBILITY OF CHERRY PICKING GOES OUT THE WINDOW WHEN YOU CONSIDER EVERY 5 YEAR PERIOD EQUALLY.   If I wanted to cherry pick, I would have just shown winning percentages by coaches, which any of us could look up, and said, "look, CBB sucks. This is as bad as we've ever been" without any effort.

4.  I know it's confusing when a post doesn't slander CBB's personal appearance or call someone an idiot or dumbass.  I try to bring objectivity to the table.
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Michael D Huff AIA

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #24 on: November 09, 2017, 12:55:53 pm »

2.  I'm using 5 season stretches to compare, using the length of Bielema's tenure as the yardstick.



no you're cherry picking 5 year periods to try to prove your point.

nice try bert!

in the real world hatfield owns highest winning percentage in program history not the five year hatfield, crowe, kines "years".

of the five coaches that have coached the hogs in my live time for at least two consecutive years, in other words the guys who've actually been the coach and not an interim coach. you know what i'm talking about the 5 guys that everyone on the planet knows were the actual coach of the razorbacks. this is their ranking by winning percentage.

hatfield .............760

broyles..............708

petrino..............667

nutt..................610

fat bert.............483

ford..................447

now those are the facts and they are not in dispute.

when you factor in the the next three loses (but...but... we may not lose those games!....child please) bert will officially become the worst coach by any measure in my lifetime and i'm 56.

Oh, and your winning percentages are incorrect, so they are 'in dispute'.

Broyles         144-58-5     .696  (not .708)
Holtz            60-21-2       .723  (must have forgotten about him)
Hatfield        55-17-1       .753  (not .760)
Ford             25-31-1       .439  (not .447)
Nutt             75-49-0       .605  (not .610)
Petrino         34-17-0       .667  (got that one right)
Bielema        29-31-0       .483  (got that one right, too)

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Seebs

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #25 on: November 09, 2017, 12:56:34 pm »

Not sure about the math but it sure feels like it.
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ShadowHawg

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #26 on: November 09, 2017, 03:36:14 pm »

We have set records for yards given up on the ground in one game, the worst defense in the history of the program just last year, and I think the only coach to go a whole season withou winning a conference game.

I am sure there are more. Yes this is the worst coaching job in the last 70 years at Arkansas.
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hawgXi

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #27 on: November 10, 2017, 05:29:06 am »

Not just this coach, but since WW2, we've never had a 6 year span where we didn't have either a 9 win season or share a conference title.

Thanks Jeffi, nice hires.

Here's a five year stat frolm the CBB ERA thatt l heard on DTS yesterday:

11 SEC Wins in the 5 year span of CBB
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dfwalumdad

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Re: Are we as bad as we've ever been? (by the numbers)
« Reply #28 on: November 10, 2017, 06:03:37 am »

Oh, and your winning percentages are incorrect, so they are 'in dispute'.

Broyles         144-58-5     .696  (not .708)
Holtz            60-21-2       .723  (must have forgotten about him)
Hatfield        55-17-1       .753  (not .760)
Ford             25-31-1       .439  (not .447)
Nutt             75-49-0       .605  (not .610)
Petrino         34-17-0       .667  (got that one right)
Bielema        29-31-0       .483  (got that one right, too)

you're right i did forget about holtz

here's the website i used for winning percentages

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/coaches/lou-holtz-1.html

go ahead joe knock yourself out.

i understood your methodology son, i just rejected it as being flawed. where did you pull it out of your arse?
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