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Author Topic: Odds of hiring a winning coach in the SEC  (Read 572 times)

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Nashville Fan

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Odds of hiring a winning coach in the SEC
« on: October 30, 2017, 03:09:29 pm »

Since Saban was hired in 2007, there has been 45 different coaches for the 14 teams in the SEC. That is an average of 3.2 coaches hired per team in 10 years.

There are 3 coaches that have won significantly more than 50% of their conference games(what else matters in the SEC).

1. Nick Saban 84%
2. Urban Meyers 73%
3. Mark Richt 70%

That's 7 out 100 odds of picking a big winner for the AD.

4. Ed Orgeron 67% still real early
5. Gus Malzhan 60%
6. Bobby Petrino 53%
7. Hugh Freeze 53%
8. Steve Spurrier 52%
9. Kirby Smart 50% still real early
10. James Franklin 46%
11. Dan Mullen 45%

Best case if your okay with winning 50% of conference games or dealing with problems then the odds go up to 1 in 4. So basically 75% are going to not win 50% in conference.
The grass most always not greener and the teams struggle for a year or two after a change in coaches.

Bret Bielema's conference winning percent is 24%. No justifying that.


Numbers came from Wikipedia


Thoughts?
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hogsanity

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Re: Odds of hiring a winning coach in the SEC
« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2017, 03:11:54 pm »

Since Saban was hired in 2007, there has been 45 different coaches for the 14 teams in the SEC. That is an average of 3.2 coaches hired per team in 10 years.

There are 4 coaches that have won significantly more than 50% of their conference games(what else matters in the SEC).

1. Nick Saban 84%
2. Urban Meyers 73%
3. Mark Richt 70%

That's 7 out 100 odds of picking a big winner for the AD.

4. Ed Orgeron 67% still real early
5. Gus Malzhan 60%
6. Bobby Petrino 53%
7. Hugh Freeze 53%
8. Steve Spurrier 52%
9. Kirby Smart 50% still real early
10. James Franklin 46%
11. Dan Mullen 45%

Best case if your okay with winning 50% of conference games or dealing with problems then the odds go up to 1 in 4. So basically 75% are going to not win 50% in conference.
The grass most always not greener and the teams struggle for a year or two after a change in coaches.

Bret Bielema's conference winning percent is 24%. No justifying that.


Numbers came from Wikipedia


Thoughts?

Thoughts? That while it may not be as strong as it was 4 or 5 years ago, top to bottom it is still the toughest league not called the NFL.
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Dropkick

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Re: Odds of hiring a winning coach in the SEC
« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2017, 03:12:17 pm »

I guess if CBB is winning 24% it really isn't that big a gamble to roll the dice on a new HC
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Marshfieldhog

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Re: Odds of hiring a winning coach in the SEC
« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2017, 03:14:34 pm »

I guess if CBB is winning 24% it really isn't that big a gamble to roll the dice on a new HC

Lol, can't do much worse. To put it in perspective if he can win 1/3 in the last 3 weeks. That will raise his 24% average.
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OneTuskOverTheLine™

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Re: Odds of hiring a winning coach in the SEC
« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2017, 03:14:43 pm »

Definitely time for CBB to put on his flip flops, load the cooler on the boat and give all of us a "Cool Change"...

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The Pulse

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Re: Odds of hiring a winning coach in the SEC
« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2017, 03:19:55 pm »

So you're sayin' there's a chance?
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The Pulse

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Re: Odds of hiring a winning coach in the SEC
« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2017, 03:22:24 pm »

I wonder what would be the chance of getting a coach that does worse than 24%?
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sickboy

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Re: Odds of hiring a winning coach in the SEC
« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2017, 03:34:39 pm »

Since Saban was hired in 2007, there has been 45 different coaches for the 14 teams in the SEC. That is an average of 3.2 coaches hired per team in 10 years.

There are 3 coaches that have won significantly more than 50% of their conference games(what else matters in the SEC).

1. Nick Saban 84%
2. Urban Meyers 73%
3. Mark Richt 70%

That's 7 out 100 odds of picking a big winner for the AD.

4. Ed Orgeron 67% still real early
5. Gus Malzhan 60%
6. Bobby Petrino 53%
7. Hugh Freeze 53%
8. Steve Spurrier 52%
9. Kirby Smart 50% still real early
10. James Franklin 46%
11. Dan Mullen 45%

Best case if your okay with winning 50% of conference games or dealing with problems then the odds go up to 1 in 4. So basically 75% are going to not win 50% in conference.
The grass most always not greener and the teams struggle for a year or two after a change in coaches.

Bret Bielema's conference winning percent is 24%. No justifying that.


Numbers came from Wikipedia


Thoughts?

Yeah. It's really hard to project how a coach is going to perform in the SEC. I mean -- think about it. There are basically only three guys alive and working (or willing to work) that have proven they can actually win the SEC these days. Meyer, Saban and Miles. Aside from that, Richt, Mullen and Franklin are about the only other coaches who've managed to coach in the SEC and win enough to be respected. Smart looks like he's headed that way.

That's seven or eight guys total... out of thousands... oh, and who aren't hirable. Those are the only proven coaches. So, you take your best shot out of thousands of other coaches out there who aren't prove and hope.

Not surprised at all that the odds of hiring a winning coach in the SEC are long on top of long.
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Nashville Fan

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Re: Odds of hiring a winning coach in the SEC
« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2017, 03:49:53 pm »

I wonder what would be the chance of getting a coach that does worse than 24%?
let me say it this way... John L Smith won 25%.
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The Hawg Marshal

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Re: Odds of hiring a winning coach in the SEC
« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2017, 04:00:42 pm »

McElwain was 22-12 and that wasn't good enough.
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Nashville Fan

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Re: Odds of hiring a winning coach in the SEC
« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2017, 04:07:14 pm »

Never believe Wiki. 10-22 in conference is 31% not 23.8% like Wiki has calculated.
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sw403

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Re: Odds of hiring a winning coach in the SEC
« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2017, 04:33:33 pm »

Didn't see Les Miles
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razorbackfaninar

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Re: Odds of hiring a winning coach in the SEC
« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2017, 04:56:56 pm »

Look at Freeze, he was a nobody from nowhere same pretty much for Malzahn.  If we could get someone to replicate their success I think we would be happy with that. It is a crap shoot and involves a lot of different factors, but In my opinion the Butch Jones hire looked doomed form the start, I was impressed with McElwain's work in Colorado so I thought he would do fine but I guess not.

   
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31to6

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Re: Odds of hiring a winning coach in the SEC
« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2017, 05:14:34 pm »

Since Saban was hired in 2007, there has been 45 different coaches for the 14 teams in the SEC. That is an average of 3.2 coaches hired per team in 10 years.
Thoughts?
Need to eliminate Interim coaches and coaches hired before 2007.

Also, for purposes of our situation, need to eliminate coaches for Vanderbilt and Kentucky, since neither program is comparable to ours in terms of conference success.

Head Coaches hired since Saban with .500 or better conference records, West:
Arkansas: 1 of 2 (W: Petrino. L: Bielema. I: Smith)
aTm: 1 of 1 (W: Sumlin L: n/a I: n/a)
Ole Miss: 0 of 2 (W: n/a L: Nutt, Freeze. I: Luke)
MSU: 0 of 1 (W: n/a L: Mullen I: n/a)
Auburn: 1 or 2   (W: Malzahn. L: Chizik I: n/a)
LSU: 1 of 1 (W: Orgeron L: n/a I: Orgeron)

SEC West overall: 4 of 9 = 44% with winning conference records

East
Georgia: 1 of 1 (W: Smart L: n/a I: n/a)
Florida: 2 of 2 (W: Muschamp, McElwain L: n/a I: Durkin)
Missouri: 0 of 1 (W: n/a L: Odom I: n/a)
Tennessee: 1 of 3 (W: Kiffin L: Dooley, Jones)
Vanderbilt: 0 of 2 (W: n/a L: Franklin, Mason I: Caldwell)
Kentucky: 0 of 2 (W: n/a L: Phillips, Stoops I: n/a)
South Carolina: 2 of 2 (W: Spurrier, Muschamp L: n/a I: Elliott)

SEC-E overall: 6 of 13. 46%

SEC Overall: 10 of 22. 45%

SEC Overall (minus Vandy/KY): 10 of 18: 55%

Note that it is about even in chance in the West vs. the East, although there has been more churn in the East.

Those are actually pretty good odds that a program like Arkansas should be able to attract a coach that can go .500.
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OneTuskOverTheLine™

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Re: Odds of hiring a winning coach in the SEC
« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2017, 05:59:41 pm »

let me say it this way... John L Smith won 25%.
Awe Hell Man.!?!?! I tried to stifle a laugh and ripped a fart...
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From Tusk Till Dawn

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Re: Odds of hiring a winning coach in the SEC
« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2017, 06:22:59 pm »

Look at Freeze, he was a nobody from nowhere same pretty much for Malzahn.  If we could get someone to replicate their success I think we would be happy with that. It is a crap shoot and involves a lot of different factors, but In my opinion the Butch Jones hire looked doomed form the start, I was impressed with McElwain's work in Colorado so I thought he would do fine but I guess not.

 
So you want to hire A-states coach eh? 🙂
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