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Author Topic: An "objective" look at Arkansas so far  (Read 1576 times)

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Bacon_Bitz

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An "objective" look at Arkansas so far
« on: October 03, 2017, 10:41:04 am »

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-arkansas-advanced-statistical-profile

Some things that stand out:

Arkansas's offense has warmed up enough to be the 25th best in FBS thus far. We are not explosive (93rd) but are efficient (15th) and good at field position, finishing drives, and not coughing up the ball. Just like CBB wants.  The Hogs have great success at rushing (11th in success rate) but have broken off very few big runs thus far (91st in Rushing IsoPPP).  All the goal line stuff from last game and some other botched short yardage situations have hurt the power success rate, but at least this year we are finally punching it in somehow no matter how long it takes.  The passing game is moderately efficient (42nd in success rate) and moderately explosive (34th in Passing IsoPPP) and now seems primed for improvement with Nance, Stewart, and Jones taking a step forward.


The defense's rushing numbers are awful because TCU was ruthlessly efficient running against us, and A&M was explosive.  Nothing really stands out about the defense other than the fact that they can't stuff any runs at all.  Otherwise, they are a thoroughly mediocre defense, which isn't such a bad thing if the offense can again pick up the slack this year like in the past two years.

60% win probability against South Carolina, 46% against Ole Miss, 90% for Coastal Carolina, 55% for Mississippi State, and 76% for Missouri.  Around 30% for Auburn and LSU.  At this point, these predictions still factor in last season's performance to some extent (and also don't account for Deebo Samuel and most of the O Line being hurt for South Carolina).  So the actual chance of winning the South Carolina, Ole Miss, and LSU games is probably higher given what's happening this year with those programs.

If you look just purely based on this year's performance so far, these are the S&P+ ratings for us and our remaining opponents so far through five weeks:

1. Alabama
17. Auburn
35. Mississippi State
36. LSU
45. Arkansas
71. Ole Miss
87. South Carolina
108. Coastal Carolina
111. Missouri

For reference, TCU is 13th, A&M is 63rd, and NMSU is 69th.  The A&M game was disappointing because our win probability based on how we played was greater than 50%. It's easy to see Miss St and LSU continue to slide while Arkansas continues to improve, leaving six very winnable games on the schedule.  And even Auburn is not a definite L (although it seems probable).

Lots of good Arkansas football yet to be played this year.
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/10/1/16392556/ncaa-football-rankings-2017-130-teams
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bphi11ips

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Re: An "objective" look at Arkansas so far
« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2017, 11:17:26 am »

👍
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Bacons Rebellion

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Re: An "objective" look at Arkansas so far
« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2017, 11:46:03 am »

Our real problem is that when our defense is successful, our offense plays poorly enough to lose (TCU).
When our offense is successful, our defense plays poorly enough to lose (Texas A&M).
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ShadowHawg

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Re: An "objective" look at Arkansas so far
« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2017, 11:57:29 am »

An offense that has consistently got the dog beat out of it's qb against the only 2 P5 teams it's played is not the 25th best in the country. Stats are for losers.
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phadedhawg

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Re: An "objective" look at Arkansas so far
« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2017, 11:58:40 am »

Good stuffs but I still fully expect Auburn to expose us once again.  Alabama isn't even worth discussing.  What they will do to us we best soon forget. 
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Hog Fan...DOH!

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Re: An "objective" look at Arkansas so far
« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2017, 02:50:19 pm »

An offense that has consistently got the dog beat out of it's qb against the only 2 P5 teams it's played is not the 25th best in the country. Stats are for losers.

"expose"... what is it that you don't already know?
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DeltaBoy

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Re: An "objective" look at Arkansas so far
« Reply #6 on: October 04, 2017, 09:00:39 am »

Woo Pig Go Hogs.
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redneckfriend

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Re: An "objective" look at Arkansas so far
« Reply #7 on: October 04, 2017, 10:36:09 am »

"expose"... what is it that you don't already know?

I think it is a term of art for uncovering weaknesses that we try to hide. True, we all know what those weaknesses are but Auburn will exploit them and they will be decisive. The O-line will, I suspect, be especially "exposed"- I wouldn't be surprised if the exposure there included losing various parts of their uniforms as the Auburn defense goes by them so fast that it creates a very strong draft. We may need to use a two back set just to block and keep Allen alive.
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Suidae Suis Scrofa

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Re: An "objective" look at Arkansas so far
« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2017, 02:09:55 pm »

46% against Ole Miss, ..., 55% for Mississippi State
If you look just purely based on this year's performance so far, these are the S&P+ ratings for us and our remaining opponents so far through five weeks:

35. Mississippi State
45. Arkansas
71. Ole Miss

So Ms State is a better team (arguable I know, just using the S&P+ rankings) but Ole Miss is the one were going to lose to.

I guess I don't understand statistics as well as I thought I do.

-phil
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hogsanity

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Re: An "objective" look at Arkansas so far
« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2017, 02:19:56 pm »

An offense that has consistently got the dog beat out of it's qb against the only 2 P5 teams it's played is not the 25th best in the country. Stats are for losers.

unless of course it s a stat like " most wins in 20 years " of course. That #, by itself, means nothing. The football offense has put up over 40 pts in 3 of it's 4 games. Offense is not, nor has it been the problem for the last few seasons.
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Bacon_Bitz

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Re: An "objective" look at Arkansas so far
« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2017, 02:30:10 pm »

So Ms State is a better team (arguable I know, just using the S&P+ rankings) but Ole Miss is the one were going to lose to.

I guess I don't understand statistics as well as I thought I do.

-phil

Those win percentages are based on S&P+ ratings that still factor in some of last year's performance, which boosts up Ole Miss.  And then home field advantages plays a role too.
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12247

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Re: An "objective" look at Arkansas so far
« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2017, 07:20:47 pm »

As can be seen, except for BAMA and Auburn, we aren't far behind anyone else on our 2017 schedule.  Given that some of these teams we will face will improve, some will suffer injuries to key people, etc..  In theory we could win all but 2 of our remaining regular season games. 

It comes down to what you believe we will do, improve regress of stay about the same.  Our best hope is that the better teams we will face all regressing and that is doubtful.  I have no faith that we can out coach any of these teams so we need gross regression by the opposition.  Still wondering where 6 wins might come from in a season that 10 wins should have been doable.
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oldgoat

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Re: An "objective" look at Arkansas so far
« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2017, 09:30:47 pm »

Another "objective" look at Hogs from ESPN has Austin Allen as the #5 QB in week 5 with a QBR of 94.5:
  "Austin Allen matched his career high with three touchdown passes while throwing for a season-high 264 yards. Despite an interception, he had his best day of the season throwing deep, completing 5 of 7 passes for 100 yards and 1 score on throws more than 10 yards downfield after only completing 36 percent of such throws in his first three games this season. Despite being blitzed a season-high 17 times, Allen avoided being sacked for the first time this season while completing 11 of 16 passes for 139 yards when New Mexico State brought extra rushers."
   I was at the game and the NMSt D was fired up, (in the cheap shot dept. #94 was diving at Ragnow's knees often).  I was also staying at their hotel and they were calm and looked like they had nothing to lose.
   They had a very good passing attack and seemed to be a decent team that gave us their best shot.  Our Hogs did not look to me to be excited or playing their best, but they handled everything well.  I predict we will be going to a bowl this year.
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alohawg

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Re: An "objective" look at Arkansas so far
« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2017, 11:49:51 pm »

Good stuffs but I still fully expect Auburn to expose us once again.  Alabama isn't even worth discussing.  What they will do to us we best soon forget. 

Alabama can write in whatever score they want, while avoiding a shutout may be an accomplishment.
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