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Author Topic: Huge change in Vegas line  (Read 5796 times)

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Hoggish1

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #50 on: October 03, 2017, 07:11:11 pm »

The line opened with South Carolina as 2.5 point favorites.  Evidently a ton of money has been pouring in on Arkansas, and now Arkansas is a 2.5 point favorite. Thatís a 5 point swing in the line, which is a huge swing considering there has been no announcement that their starting QB is out or anything of that nature.
So smart money is saying Arkansas. What say ye?

?  The line was -2.5 Arkansas on Sunday.  What are you talking about?
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Hoggish1

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #51 on: October 03, 2017, 07:13:10 pm »

The line opened with South Carolina as 2.5 point favorites.  Evidently a ton of money has been pouring in on Arkansas, and now Arkansas is a 2.5 point favorite. Thatís a 5 point swing in the line, which is a huge swing considering there has been no announcement that their starting QB is out or anything of that nature.
So smart money is saying Arkansas. What say ye?

?  The line was -2.5 Arkansas on Sunday.  What are you talking about?
Not when I check early Sunday...  Hogs were -2.5.

Ding, ding DING!Please put this thread in the can, Mods.  Thanks.
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AlmaHog2011

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #52 on: October 03, 2017, 07:23:24 pm »

That kid should NOT play period. That is very bad much like a fighter getting up after being knocked out. Scary.
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Hawgphat

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #53 on: October 03, 2017, 08:02:49 pm »

The line opened with South Carolina as 2.5 point favorites.  Evidently a ton of money has been pouring in on Arkansas, and now Arkansas is a 2.5 point favorite. Thatís a 5 point swing in the line, which is a huge swing considering there has been no announcement that their starting QB is out or anything of that nature.
So smart money is saying Arkansas. What say ye?

I learned a long time ago that betting on Arkansas is not smart.
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lakecityhog

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #54 on: October 03, 2017, 08:09:39 pm »

1st of all that was clearly targeting and yes he should have been removed by a game official!
If he had run the ball again or took a hard sack he could have been hurt badly.
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12247

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #55 on: October 04, 2017, 08:15:26 pm »

Years ago, I gambled a lot on football.  Lost a lot too.  Best year by far I ever had was when I quit looking at the point spread and starting betting on tendencies.  The sports magazines used to do write up about various teams tendencies year after year.  Example:  The Hogs almost always won the week after playing Texas but rarely covered the spread.  Bet against the Hogs to cover on that game in all situations.  Teams that played on turf seldom covered the spread when playing on the few grass fields still left and those grass teams rarely covered the spread on turf.  A team that has covered the spread 3 in a row, will likely not cover the fourth week and its nearly impossible for them to cover 5 in a row.  Vegas will adjust the spread to nulify a team covering nearly every week.  An NFL team that scores 40+ 2 weeks in a row, wiil not cover the 3rd week 4 out of 5 times.  The traveling team who has played on Saturday, or Sunday for an NFL team, will rarely cover the spread in a Thursday night game the following week.  A team that goes cross country, west to east for a big game will usually not cover the spread. 

The are just a very few of the more than 700 tendencies I learned about and likely most of them are not valid now.  I wouldn't know.  But I used to make money playing the tendencies.  Sometimes it was really difficult to bet against what i seen as a solid bet the other way but I stuck to the tendencies and won serious money that one year.  Like most folks, overall, I lost money playing football games.
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Hoggie17

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #56 on: October 04, 2017, 11:16:40 pm »

SC was a 2.5 favorite early Sunday
No they were not.
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Hogs49ers

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #57 on: October 05, 2017, 12:09:37 am »

Sportsbetting in general - most of the time, when you see a line and you think "Hmm this is too easy, money in the bank, team X covers EASY!" it is usually too good to be true and you can usually take the other side and do pretty well over time.
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PORKULATOR

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #58 on: October 05, 2017, 06:40:27 am »

Not when I check early Sunday...  Hogs were -2.5.
Well its on my google feed, so it happened, stop arguing. You're wrong.
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PORKULATOR

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #59 on: October 05, 2017, 06:40:52 am »

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Hoggish1

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #60 on: October 05, 2017, 07:15:11 am »


Must have been looking at different places then.

-2.5 means SC gets those points, given by Hogs...
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rhames

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #61 on: October 05, 2017, 07:17:34 am »

-2.5 means SC gets those points, given by Hogs...

If SC is -2.5 that means they are/were favored. Obviously people were looking at different times and/or at different sites. Kind of strange how so many people are arguing it was both ways don't ya think?
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Hoggish1

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #62 on: October 05, 2017, 07:18:41 am »

I have a hard time completely believing that article.  It says huge public money came pouring in on sunday, well public money CAN'T bet on sunday usually.  Most books don't release lines to general public till very Monday or tuesday.  Vegas books themselves even give certain "sharp" players lines early and don't open up the windows to those lines till extremely late.  Again, public doesn't place wagers or usually have the ability to place wagers on sunday for the upcoming saturday.

Exactly.  BS from that link.  The Vegas boards never had SC as a favorite.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2017, 08:27:08 am by Hoggish1 »
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rhames

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Hoggish1

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #64 on: October 05, 2017, 07:24:04 am »

https://247sports.com/college/arkansas/Bolt/Major-betting-line-change-for-Arkansas-South-Carolina-108371032

Brad Crawford?  Go to

College Football Team coverage at
VegasInsider.com

when you want to know the odds for any team
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rhames

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #65 on: October 05, 2017, 07:27:16 am »

Brad Crawford?  Go to

College Football Team coverage at
VegasInsider.com

when you want to know the odds for any team


Yeah. I'm not sure where all the confusion is coming from then. Wynn did have SC -1.5 but that's all I see.
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hogcard1964

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #66 on: October 05, 2017, 07:37:45 am »

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twistitup

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #67 on: October 05, 2017, 07:40:24 am »

That kid should NOT play period. That is very bad much like a fighter getting up after being knocked out. Scary.

He might play the best game of his life - on muscle memory. Like driving home and not knowing how you got there - he might tear it up Sat and not even remember it.

Crazy things in sports happen - there was a pitcher back in the day that threw a no hitter trippin on acid...the brain is a crazy thing.

There was a game I got concussed in the 2nd qtr...came back and played the second half, had 7 tackles - didn't remember stepping back on the field the next day. Just a blank-
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JaketheSnake

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #68 on: October 05, 2017, 07:48:55 am »

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hogcard1964

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #69 on: October 05, 2017, 08:00:43 am »

So it's essentially even.
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Bacon_Bitz

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #70 on: October 05, 2017, 08:12:40 am »

So it's essentially even.

No, the line is Ark -2. That is not even.
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hogcard1964

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #71 on: October 05, 2017, 08:22:07 am »

No, the line is Ark -2. That is not even.

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Deep Shoat

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #72 on: October 05, 2017, 08:48:30 am »


Considering SC gets 3p points for being at home, it's not really close to even.
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hogcard1964

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #73 on: October 05, 2017, 08:50:57 am »

So Arkansas should win by 5?
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rljjr

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #74 on: October 05, 2017, 09:13:09 am »

So Arkansas should win by 5?

Only if we can make a left-footed FG.

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root_hawg

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #75 on: October 05, 2017, 09:17:59 am »

I placed my bet on Sunday, must have been that to move the line
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texhog22

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #76 on: October 05, 2017, 11:26:34 am »

I don't care about the Vegas line. I don't care if we beat SC by 30! We are a BAD football team, and its due to coaching. BB will NEVER right this ship! NEVER. If he is here 5 more years then we will be bad at least 6 more years. He needs to go. ASAP
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widespreadsooie

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #77 on: October 05, 2017, 12:06:48 pm »

I don't care about the Vegas line. I don't care if we beat SC by 30! We are a BAD football team, and its due to coaching. BB will NEVER right this ship! NEVER. If he is here 5 more years then we will be bad at least 6 more years. He needs to go. ASAP

Hot take alert
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JaketheSnake

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #78 on: October 05, 2017, 12:09:22 pm »

I don't care about the Vegas line. I don't care if we beat SC by 30! We are a BAD football team, and its due to coaching. BB will NEVER right this ship! NEVER. If he is here 5 more years then we will be bad at least 6 more years. He needs to go. ASAP
Ms Cleo?
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PorkRinds

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #79 on: October 05, 2017, 12:41:51 pm »

I don't care about the Vegas line. I don't care if we beat SC by 30! We are a BAD football team, and its due to coaching. BB will NEVER right this ship! NEVER. If he is here 5 more years then we will be bad at least 6 more years. He needs to go. ASAP

Lol.
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Corkscrew Johnson

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #80 on: October 05, 2017, 03:18:51 pm »

Considering SC gets 3p points for being at home, it's not really close to even.

Yeah, -1 or -2 is actually pretty close to a coin toss.  Since we aren't talking about who is a better team on paper, but rather who is going to win this football game, then you don't get to add back the 3 points for playing at home....because they are in fact playing at home.

I get nervous playing in a game projected to be won by a field goal....without anyone who has actually made a field goal by October. 

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jcbville

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #81 on: October 05, 2017, 03:23:48 pm »

I don't care about the Vegas line. I don't care if we beat SC by 30! We are a BAD football team, and its due to coaching. BB will NEVER right this ship! NEVER. If he is here 5 more years then we will be bad at least 6 more years. He needs to go. ASAP
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texhog22

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #82 on: October 05, 2017, 08:33:51 pm »

laaaugh it up
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Inhogswetrust

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #83 on: October 06, 2017, 06:24:37 am »

I don't care about the Vegas line. I don't care if we beat SC by 30! We are a BAD football team, and its due to coaching. BB will NEVER right this ship! NEVER. If he is here 5 more years then we will be bad at least 6 more years. He needs to go. ASAP

Seek professional help.
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Dirty

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #84 on: October 06, 2017, 07:52:40 am »

Gunfire!
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Iwastherein1969

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #85 on: October 06, 2017, 08:02:17 am »

Are you sure?  When I checked early on, the Hogs were -2.5....
the Hogs opened as a -1 to -1.5 favorite in this game, I think the OP got his facts mixed up...I checked on Monday morning and it was ARK -1.5 on almost every sight
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Iwastherein1969

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #86 on: October 06, 2017, 08:05:29 am »

Yeah, -1 or -2 is actually pretty close to a coin toss.  Since we aren't talking about who is a better team on paper, but rather who is going to win this football game, then you don't get to add back the 3 points for playing at home....because they are in fact playing at home.

I get nervous playing in a game projected to be won by a field goal....without anyone who has actually made a field goal by October.
normally yes, but Arkansas has proven they cannot finish since Mizzou last season and other numerous occasions so we shouldn't be favored over any team in the league on the road...to me this is a sucker line, the late money will likely come in on the Kocks, which tells me that the betting public is playing USC-e...I say we win easily
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widespreadsooie

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #87 on: October 06, 2017, 08:17:48 am »

the Hogs opened as a -1 to -1.5 favorite in this game, I think the OP got his facts mixed up...I checked on Monday morning and it was ARK -1.5 on almost every sight

Lines open late Sunday afternoon as it's been stated multiple times in this thread. Arkansas -1.5 was not the opening line.
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Hoggish1

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #88 on: October 06, 2017, 08:30:28 am »

I don't care about the Vegas line. I don't care if we beat SC by 30! We are a BAD football team, and its due to coaching. BB will NEVER right this ship! NEVER. If he is here 5 more years then we will be bad at least 6 more years. He needs to go. ASAP

You just don't care.  Got it.
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HawgWyld

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #89 on: October 06, 2017, 09:01:00 am »

So ... everyone lay their money down on the Hogs yet?
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JaketheSnake

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #90 on: October 06, 2017, 09:09:12 am »

Many lines dropped to -2 midweek, but several have gone back up to -2.5 now.
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Hook 'em Hogs

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #91 on: October 06, 2017, 10:19:19 am »

I'm not speaking for the OP and what he saw. I don't gamble, but I look at lines on yahoo sports. It was SC -2.5 on Sunday.  It's likely he was looking at something like that rather than a gambling site. I noticed the exact same thing though. Hogs are now -2.5.
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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #93 on: October 07, 2017, 03:47:04 am »

Lines open late Sunday afternoon as it's been stated multiple times in this thread. Arkansas -1.5 was not the opening line.
So it's your assertion that a college line, a full week away will move that much in one day. With that one day having a full schedule of NFL games ? Sorry, I have a difficult time believing that a line would move that much on an NFL Sunday to the following Monday morning. Maybe it did, but it makes little sense.
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code red

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #94 on: October 07, 2017, 05:42:39 am »

South Carolina's offensive line is in shambles.  Put some heat on those q.b.'s of SC and it could get ugly.
Their defense is ranked in the 30s.  I'd pump those brakes a little.  Our oline will have there hands full. 
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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #95 on: October 07, 2017, 06:40:01 am »

I don't care about the Vegas line. I don't care if we beat SC by 30! We are a BAD football team, and its due to coaching. BB will NEVER right this ship! NEVER. If he is here 5 more years then we will be bad at least 6 more years. He needs to go. ASAP

TROLL!
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #96 on: October 07, 2017, 09:42:21 am »

The point that nobody has made, and I'm not really surprised because only a few actually understand this stuff, is the juice....

Forget the spread....look at the juice. At this moment, Vegas has the hogs -3. But more importantly, they have changed the juice to -115 which means you have to bet more to win more. Meanwhile, South Carolina has gone from the routine -110 to +101 meaning you can win a whole lot more money if you bet on SC.

Vegas can't afford to change the line, so they change the vig. Basically tempting public money to start betting more on SC. When you see this, it means most money is on Arkansas and they want people to bet on the other side.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #97 on: October 07, 2017, 10:49:05 am »

So it's your assertion that a college line, a full week away will move that much in one day. With that one day having a full schedule of NFL games ? Sorry, I have a difficult time believing that a line would move that much on an NFL Sunday to the following Monday morning. Maybe it did, but it makes little sense.

It isn't my assertion, it's fact. I don't see what a full slate of NFL games has to do with college lines moving on Sunday. All the noon games are over when the lines come out anyways. Doesn't matter though. Lines come out, some people bet. That simple.

To prove this I will tell you, and anyone in this camp for that matter, to check vegasinsider.com around 430, 5 on Sunday. Screen shot the lines or whatever you want to do. Then look at the spreads posted on espn.com on Monday. A lot of them will be different.
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twistitup

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #98 on: October 07, 2017, 07:08:27 pm »

cause vegas knows everything....
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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #99 on: October 07, 2017, 07:12:26 pm »

cause vegas knows everything....
Where did all the smart money go ???
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