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Author Topic: Huge change in Vegas line  (Read 5454 times)

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JayHog

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Huge change in Vegas line
« on: October 03, 2017, 10:44:55 am »

The line opened with South Carolina as 2.5 point favorites.  Evidently a ton of money has been pouring in on Arkansas, and now Arkansas is a 2.5 point favorite. Thatís a 5 point swing in the line, which is a huge swing considering there has been no announcement that their starting QB is out or anything of that nature.
So smart money is saying Arkansas. What say ye?
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oldrazorband

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2017, 10:52:00 am »

Did anyone see the clip of their QB getting up all wobbly after a hit last week?  I wouldn't doubt he has a concussion.

http://www.12up.com/posts/5617787-video-south-carolina-qb-keeps-playing-after-getting-obvious-concussion?a_aid=36659
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007 License To Squeal

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2017, 10:56:44 am »

Are you sure?  When I checked early on, the Hogs were -2.5....
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onebadrubi

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2017, 10:57:50 am »

Line opened as Arkansas a Favorite, ranging from a -1 to a -2 at most books.
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jkstock04

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2017, 10:59:05 am »

I've seen -2 or -2.5 since opening.
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The NewEra

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2017, 11:01:53 am »

South Carolina's offensive line is in shambles.  Put some heat on those q.b.'s of SC and it could get ugly.
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rhames

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2017, 11:02:15 am »

SC was a 2.5 favorite early Sunday 
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PorkRinds

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2017, 11:10:17 am »

South Carolina's offensive line is in shambles.  Put some heat on those q.b.'s of SC and it could get ugly.

I feel like this could be said of us as well.
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007 License To Squeal

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2017, 11:13:30 am »

SC was a 2.5 favorite early Sunday 

Not when I check early Sunday...  Hogs were -2.5.
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The NewEra

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2017, 11:18:41 am »

I feel like this could be said of us as well.

I see ours improving.  Theirs is getting worse due to injuries.
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onebadrubi

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2017, 11:20:22 am »

SC was a 2.5 favorite early Sunday

Every line tracking website shows Hogs opened as favorite.  Where are you guys seeing SC was opening as a favorite?
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rhames

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2017, 11:20:34 am »

Not when I check early Sunday...  Hogs were -2.5.


Must have been looking at different places then.
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mclyte

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #12 on: October 03, 2017, 11:22:09 am »

http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/odds/line-history/792363

Here's a link to the line movement. Most opened as Hogs -2. Some books opened with So. Car -1.5.
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Fan1958

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2017, 11:23:12 am »

The line opened with South Carolina as 2.5 point favorites.  Evidently a ton of money has been pouring in on Arkansas, and now Arkansas is a 2.5 point favorite. Thatís a 5 point swing in the line, which is a huge swing considering there has been no announcement that their starting QB is out or anything of that nature.
So smart money is saying Arkansas. What say ye?

That folks who pay attention to betting lines, relative to the line indicating which team will win or lose, are desperate for anything that makes them feel better.
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onebadrubi

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2017, 11:23:47 am »

nm
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onebadrubi

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #16 on: October 03, 2017, 11:28:13 am »

https://www.google.com/amp/s/247sports.com/college/south-carolina/Bolt/Major-betting-line-change-for-Arkansas-South-Carolina-108371032/Amp

I have a hard time completely believing that article.  It says huge public money came pouring in on sunday, well public money CAN'T bet on sunday usually.  Most books don't release lines to general public till very Monday or tuesday.  Vegas books themselves even give certain "sharp" players lines early and don't open up the windows to those lines till extremely late.  Again, public doesn't place wagers or usually have the ability to place wagers on sunday for the upcoming saturday.
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rhames

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #17 on: October 03, 2017, 11:29:07 am »

I have a hard time completely believing that article.  It says huge public money came pouring in on sunday, well public money CAN'T bet on sunday usually.  Most books don't release lines to general public till very Monday or tuesday.  Vegas books themselves even give certain "sharp" players lines early and don't open up the windows to those lines till extremely late.  Again, public doesn't place wagers or usually have the ability to place wagers on sunday for the upcoming saturday.


I caught that too but I saw Sunday morning it was SC -2.5

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dhizzle

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #18 on: October 03, 2017, 11:36:42 am »

Did anyone see the clip of their QB getting up all wobbly after a hit last week?  I wouldn't doubt he has a concussion.

http://www.12up.com/posts/5617787-video-south-carolina-qb-keeps-playing-after-getting-obvious-concussion?a_aid=36659

He was like, "witch way did he go George." He pulled that off really well, he woke up and realized he was playing a football game.
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RazorbackEagle1996

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widespreadsooie

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #20 on: October 03, 2017, 12:12:15 pm »

That folks who pay attention to betting lines, relative to the line indicating which team will win or lose, are desperate for anything that makes them feel better.


Lol. The fact that SC flipped from a favorite to underdog as soon as the line came out is a very good indicator that smart money is all over the Hogs. Smart money is called smart money for a reason.

I saw SC open at -1.5 FWIW.
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Inhogswetrust

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #21 on: October 03, 2017, 12:13:49 pm »

Lol. The fact that SC flipped from a favorite to underdog as soon as the line came out is a very good indicator that smart money is all over the Hogs. Smart money is called smart money for a reason.

I saw SC open at -1.5 FWIW.

Smart people don't bet low point spreads................................
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lasthog

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #22 on: October 03, 2017, 12:18:03 pm »

Sorry guys,  I didn't mean to move the line, but I believe. ;)
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widespreadsooie

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #23 on: October 03, 2017, 12:37:32 pm »

Smart people don't bet low point spreads................................

You mind explaining that one?
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jkstock04

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onebadrubi

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #25 on: October 03, 2017, 12:44:20 pm »

You mind explaining that one?

I assume he's trying to say they'd just take moneyline?

Many people believe that taking a ML pays off much better when a spread is less than 3, either way
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onebadrubi

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #26 on: October 03, 2017, 12:45:00 pm »

Nice find...guess I stand corrected.

Comments in that article make me question the validity of that article.  It also does t indicate where USC opened as a fav
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Inhogswetrust

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #27 on: October 03, 2017, 12:46:29 pm »

You mind explaining that one?

IF the point spread is close then the winner is more in doubt. That being said it also isn't smart to bet real high point spreads because it becomes more difficult for the super favorite to cover. Point spreads are made to equalize money bet so more people will bet. At least those are my theories. If you have better ones' please share!
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twistitup

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #28 on: October 03, 2017, 12:46:55 pm »

SC was a 2.5 favorite early Sunday 
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widespreadsooie

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #29 on: October 03, 2017, 12:51:29 pm »

IF the point spread is close then the winner is more in doubt. That being said it also isn't smart to bet real high point spreads because it becomes more difficult for the super favorite to cover. Point spreads are made to equalize money bet so more people will bet. At least those are my theories. If you have better ones' please share!

So you're saying there's no such thing as a smart bettor? Look, some people do this for a living. They're gonna hammer a spread at the open if they feel it can be taken advantage of before it moves.
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onebadrubi

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #30 on: October 03, 2017, 01:01:37 pm »



It hurts your trolling that if thats true, public has bet hogs to being a road fave
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Inhogswetrust

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #31 on: October 03, 2017, 01:03:33 pm »

So you're saying there's no such thing as a smart bettor? Look, some people do this for a living. They're gonna hammer a spread at the open if they feel it can be taken advantage of before it moves.

VERY, VERY few people that consider themselves smart bettors or doing  it for a living make money at it. Gambling places, casinos, websites, etc. do NOT build gambling businesses based on people making a profit off them. for even one betting one way there are those betting another. In the long haul gambling money is for losers. So yes there is no such thing as a smart bettor. That being said what one does with their money is their prerogative. I'm not against gambling nor want it to be illegal.
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Fan1958

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #32 on: October 03, 2017, 01:09:48 pm »

Lol. The fact that SC flipped from a favorite to underdog as soon as the line came out is a very good indicator that smart money is all over the Hogs. Smart money is called smart money for a reason.

I saw SC open at -1.5 FWIW.

Well damn.  Might as well not play the game and just chalk up a W for the Hogs.  Reckon how SC feels about that?
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widespreadsooie

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #33 on: October 03, 2017, 01:27:26 pm »

VERY, VERY few people that consider themselves smart bettors or doing  it for a living make money at it. Gambling places, casinos, websites, etc. do NOT build gambling businesses based on people making a profit off them. for even one betting one way there are those betting another. In the long haul gambling money is for losers. So yes there is no such thing as a smart bettor. That being said what one does with their money is their prerogative. I'm not against gambling nor want it to be illegal.

Well damn.  Might as well not play the game and just chalk up a W for the Hogs.  Reckon how SC feels about that?

Google Billy Walters or Alan Boston and maybe it will help you understand what I'm talking about.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #34 on: October 03, 2017, 01:34:27 pm »

You're sorely mistaking if you don't think there's people out there who know how to take advantage of the betting market, similar to the stock market.
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sooiebaby

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #35 on: October 03, 2017, 01:34:44 pm »

Did anyone see the clip of their QB getting up all wobbly after a hit last week?  I wouldn't doubt he has a concussion.

http://www.12up.com/posts/5617787-video-south-carolina-qb-keeps-playing-after-getting-obvious-concussion?a_aid=36659

He definitely got his bell rung on that play. Watching it live on tv, it was obvious when he got up that he wasnt all there. They couldnt get him off the field though because there was like 40 seconds left in the game and the clock was running. Next play was an incomplete pass and the game was over.
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DeltaBoy

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #36 on: October 03, 2017, 02:27:42 pm »

We need to see some Blitzes this week.
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HF#1

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #37 on: October 03, 2017, 02:40:29 pm »

We suck against the spread this year. Bet the house on SC
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texas tush hog

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #38 on: October 03, 2017, 03:12:52 pm »

We suck against the spread this year. Bet the house on SC

Only if you want to win some money.
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onebadrubi

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #39 on: October 03, 2017, 03:14:35 pm »

We suck against the spread this year. Bet the house on SC

New mexico state was 4-0 against the spread, and by most accounts lost because most got the spread at -16.5 to -17.5.    You should have bet the house on new mexico st +17 too...
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Inhogswetrust

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #40 on: October 03, 2017, 05:15:30 pm »

You're sorely mistaking if you don't think there's people out there who know how to take advantage of the betting market, similar to the stock market.

The factors in the statistics of gambling never change for any one entity or game. In the stock market they do for any one company.
« Last Edit: October 03, 2017, 05:29:02 pm by Inhogswetrust »
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #41 on: October 03, 2017, 05:35:37 pm »

I find a lot of humor in this thread....mainly because a lot of people think they know what they are talking about, but really they don't. I think this is what it would be like if Lee corso and Lou holtz hosted a betting segment on gameday.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #42 on: October 03, 2017, 05:36:26 pm »

Only if you want to win some money.

What's your record this year on the books?
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #43 on: October 03, 2017, 05:39:52 pm »

That folks who pay attention to betting lines, relative to the line indicating which team will win or lose, are desperate for anything that makes them feel better.


Folks who pay attention to line movement are using only 1 of several factors to consider when placing a bet.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #44 on: October 03, 2017, 05:44:46 pm »

The public doesn't move the line on Sunday. It just doesn't happen.....whales move lines on Sunday.

To answer the original question....when you see heavy line movement early, it means smart money is paying attention. When you see a big shift the day of the game, smart money made it happen.

Vegas couldn't care less about the public.
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onebadrubi

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #45 on: October 03, 2017, 06:20:58 pm »

The public doesn't move the line on Sunday. It just doesn't happen.....whales move lines on Sunday.

To answer the original question....when you see heavy line movement early, it means smart money is paying attention. When you see a big shift the day of the game, smart money made it happen.

Vegas couldn't care less about the public.

Whaaaatttt, no way!!!  This doesn't fit agendas!
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Inhogswetrust

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #46 on: October 03, 2017, 06:22:08 pm »

The public doesn't move the line on Sunday. It just doesn't happen.....whales move lines on Sunday.

To answer the original question....when you see heavy line movement early, it means smart money is paying attention. When you see a big shift the day of the game, smart money made it happen.

Vegas couldn't care less about the public.

Exactly! Vegas cares about only one thing...............your money.
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factchecker

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #47 on: October 03, 2017, 06:22:59 pm »

That folks who pay attention to betting lines, relative to the line indicating which team will win or lose, are desperate for anything that makes them feel better.

or worse

There have been plenty of "realists" use the line as a negative against the hogs.
« Last Edit: October 03, 2017, 06:54:47 pm by factchecker »
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Seebs

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #48 on: October 03, 2017, 06:51:58 pm »

Why anybody would pay this line either way is a mad man.  Either team could win by 30, and my either team I mean SC
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Arky

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Re: Huge change in Vegas line
« Reply #49 on: October 03, 2017, 06:55:23 pm »

The public doesn't move the line on Sunday. It just doesn't happen.....whales move lines on Sunday.

To answer the original question....when you see heavy line movement early, it means smart money is paying attention. When you see a big shift the day of the game, smart money made it happen.

Vegas couldn't care less about the public.
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