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Author Topic: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.  (Read 1121 times)

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oldbooniehog

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Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« on: September 19, 2017, 09:10:31 pm »

I've seen some posters on this board say their expectation for Arkansas football is to win at least 7 or 8 games in a "Down Year."

That's completely unrealistic, based on the numbers going back for the entirety of Arkansas' time in the SEC.

Another poster did the math for Arkansas vs SEC opponents since joining the league 25 years ago.

For the last 25 years, the Hogs have a 48% winning percentage in SEC play.

With 8 conference games a year, the Hogs can typically count on  3.8 SEC wins a year (That's 8 X .48).

Because you cannot win .8 of a game, that means Hogs will average 3 or 4 SEC wins a year.

If the Hogs sweep nonconference play, that's another 4 wins (at least since 4th nonconference game was added). But that's IF...

4 nonconference plus 3 SEC  equals 7.

4 noncon plus 4 SEC equals 8.

Just to win 7 or 8 games, the Hogs have to be perfect in Nonconference, and get their average number of SEC wins.

Perfect in nonconference and average is SEC is not a "Down Year."

I cannot understand where people get this very optimistic "7 or 8 wins in a down year" idea.

A "Down Year" for Arkansas means winning 5 or 4, or fewer games for the whole season.

The same poster also did the math for the Bobby Petrino years.

Under Petrino, the Hogs won 59% of their SEC games. 59% of 8 is 4.72. Again, you cannot win.72 of a game.

So the Hogs won, on average, 4 or 5 SEC games per year with Petrino.
The actual numbers were as follows:

2008 won 2 SEC games.
2009 won 3 SEC gams.
2010 won 6 SEC games.
2011 won 6 SEC games.


Two years under the average. Two years over. Hence the average. (By the way, Hootie Dale is the only Hog coach to win 7 SEC games, in 2006)

4 or 5 SEC wins plus a sweep of nonconference play would be 8 or 9 wins on average.

During Petrino's 4 years, the Hogs won 34 games.  34 wins divided by 4 years is 8.5 games a year.

So Bobby Petrino, considered by many on this board to be the single greatest most-awesomest coach Arkansas could ever hope to land in a million-jillion years averaged a half-game over 8 wins a year.

But some want to set the baseline for the Hogs so that "8 wins" is a "Down Year?"

Some Hog fans have completely, totally unrealistic expectations for the program.

And this is not a "realistic fan" saying so. This is hard, cold mathematics based on a 25-year-history in the SEC saying so.

Okay, so add all Hog football wins from 1992 (start of SEC play) until 2016 listed at this page. That's all wins, not just SEC wins.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Arkansas_Razorbacks_football_seasons

When I do that I get 167. (added three times, and got same number all three times)

167 divided by 25 is 6.68 wins per season. Which means the Hogs have averaged 6 or 7 wins a season for the last quarter century.

So if 8 total wins is a "Down Year" in the eyes of some fans, what's 6 or 7 wins? Again, Hogs have average 6.68 wins a year for a quarter of a century now.

One last number. If Bielema's 2017 team wins only 6 games this year, that would mean he'd have won 31 games over 5 years. 31 divided by 5 is 6.2 win per season.

Which is right where the Hogs have averaged for the last 25 years. 6 or 7 wins a year.

But Bielema is the worst coach ever, in Arkansas history right?
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carolinahogger

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2017, 09:28:07 pm »

That is a ridiculous number of one sentence paragraphs.
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bphi11ips

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2017, 09:31:19 pm »

7 or 8 wins is an average year for Arkansas.  Does anyone dispute that?

A losing season is a bad year for Arkansas. 

A good season for Arkansas is 9 -10 wins.

A great season for Arkansas is 11 wins or more.

There are many who claim that Arkansas is no longer capable of good or great years, essentially that we have become Kentucky or Vanderbilt or Indiana or Illinois or any number of schools who would die for a 9 win season. 

But we aren't those schools and we won't be.  We have experienced a five year below average run and everyone is whining that we were never good to begin with because we had a flat game against a ranked, favored opponent.

Jeez .....

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EastexHawg

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2017, 09:31:42 pm »

Why do we set our expectations based on 25 years of mostly mediocre to poor coaching, recruiting, and player development?

For the life of me I will never understand why so many of our fans are not only so eager to embrace mediocrity, but also to insist that others do likewise.
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presidenthog

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2017, 09:44:44 pm »

Why do we set our expectations based on 25 years of mostly mediocre to poor coaching, recruiting, and player development?

For the life of me I will never understand why so many of our fans are not only so eager to embrace mediocrity, but also to insist that others do likewise.

Exactly. The version if the sec we see this year is down and dysfunctional. We need to be winning and winning now. Not saying 7 wins vs the weakest the sec has been in over 10 years is good and we should love it.


Stop bending over backwards to embrace mediocrity!!!!!!
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blu

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2017, 09:47:31 pm »

Most Hog fans will accept 8 win seasons as a pretty good year any more. Since we've only had one of those in the past 5 seasons, our expectations have lowered considerably from what they have been historically. Sad but true.
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EastexHawg

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2017, 09:52:10 pm »

A 7 win season means 6-6 with a win in a low level bowl game or a 7-5 regular season with a bowl loss.  2-6 in conference gets you to 6-6 most years.  How is that not only acceptable, but in line with expectations for any fan?
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Swestwill66

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #7 on: September 19, 2017, 10:12:54 pm »

Alabama, Auburn, LSU, aTm , all have top 5 to top 15 recruiting every year. The best you could realistically expect to do is split those in a good year. Then you have to sweep the rest of your conference games to get to 6 and 2. That's gonna be tough .
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RazorbackAlways

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2017, 10:19:07 pm »

Why do we set our expectations based on 25 years of mostly mediocre to poor coaching, recruiting, and player development?

For the life of me I will never understand why so many of our fans are not only so eager to embrace mediocrity, but also to insist that others do likewise.

Good post.

Jesus Christ, I thought I made it abundantly clear in my thread. No more mediocrity! Why do we just accept crap?
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hawganatic

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2017, 10:20:26 pm »

You don't set expectations for anything, including a football team, by looking backwards.  You look forward and set a standard.  I don't understand why so many in the fanbase keep wanting to set expectations based on what happened two decades ago.
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hawganatic

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2017, 10:21:50 pm »

Alabama, Auburn, LSU, aTm , all have top 5 to top 15 recruiting every year. The best you could realistically expect to do is split those in a good year. Then you have to sweep the rest of your conference games to get to 6 and 2. That's gonna be tough .

So do you just quit and accept a low standard on everything in your life that is "gonna be tough?"
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Swestwill66

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2017, 10:41:39 pm »

Did anyone say anything about quitting? It's called reality!
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cj_sez

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #12 on: September 19, 2017, 10:47:57 pm »

You don't set expectations for anything, including a football team, by looking backwards.  You look forward and set a standard.

Totally agree!!
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Swestwill66

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2017, 10:51:07 pm »

Right now no sec West team except Alabama can reasonably expect to make it through conference without at least 2 losses. Who knows Bama may lose 2.
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NuttinItUp

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #14 on: September 19, 2017, 11:46:09 pm »

Poor little ol' Arky.
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hogsanity

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #15 on: September 20, 2017, 08:55:04 am »


There are many who claim that Arkansas is no longer capable of good or great years, essentially that we have become Kentucky or Vanderbilt or Indiana or Illinois or any number of schools who would die for a 9 win season. 


Actually I have seen NO ONE claim that. Actually pretty much everyone says that is exactly what the Hogs will do occasionally, jump up and have a 9win+ season and make a run at a div title.

But to expect a new coach to come in and elevate the Hogs above that type of roller coaster ride is just not realistic. Most schools have that type of chart. They plod along at 7 or so wins, then have a really good year or two, then back down.
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bosshog84

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #16 on: September 20, 2017, 08:57:09 am »

The man has a LOSING OVERALL RECORD in 5 seasons for god sake people! Why are we trying to find reasons this is acceptable?
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Redhogs

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #17 on: September 20, 2017, 09:06:11 am »

Why do we set our expectations based on 25 years of mostly mediocre to poor coaching, recruiting, and player development?

For the life of me I will never understand why so many of our fans are not only so eager to embrace mediocrity, but also to insist that others do likewise.
You and me both...so demeaning.
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Redhogs

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #18 on: September 20, 2017, 09:07:11 am »

Did anyone say anything about quitting? It's called reality!
Only if you accept it....change it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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12247

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #19 on: September 20, 2017, 09:32:26 am »

Oldbooniehog is posting correctly but not thinking correctly.  Arkansas must correct its root problem and that problem is hiring bad coaches, for our team, over and over.  These coaches may not be bad individuals but they were terrible fits for the most part.  Our horrible situation comes from unquallified people making the selections.  Crowe bad, knee jerk hire, threw into a situation he wasn't ready for.  Really unfair to Crowe.  Kines, a great DC but maybe not ready for prime time.  Maybe the best we could do for the short term.  He was only HC for that one year.  Ford might have been a good choice had he been given a little longer.  I know some real football people who said if Frank would leave him alone he could end up being good.  He did have some very good players onboard he never got to coach.  Nutt:  We got everything from Nutt he had to give.  Nutt's ceiling was 8 wins on average.  Malzahn got him the 2006 wins in my opinion.  Nutt was a problem beyond the wins/losses and most know it.  Again, another bad hire.  Herring was just filler.  Petrino was a decent coach for us, he had a scheme that stood a chance of beating people we shouldn't beat.  Never going to beat the top 4 teams in the SEC on their better years but we usually only faced 2 of them in any given year.  Petrino had the ability to get us 9, 10 maybe 11 wins 3 out of 5 years.  But he messed up.  John Smith is a better coach than he produced for us.  Once again, Smith was hired to just be the face and otherwise, stay out of the way for 1 year.  Don't get involved.  Maybe he wasn't told that but we all know that was understood.  Then the bottom fell out and he wasn't prepared.  Hell, couldn't remember the name of the team he was HC of when under duress.  Bret:  Wrong scheme based on what Arkansas could recruit.  We cannot run power football and win many games with second and third tier linemen on both sides of the ball.  And yes I know we've had a few first tier linemen on O and D, but way too few.  Add to that the fact that he knows far less than advertised about coaching in general, and you can see our problem. 

I disagree that 8 win seasons should be our ceiling.  Think about it.  Just last season alone, most could agree that we had 2 victories in hand based on even very average coaching and we lost both.  that could have been 9 wins. and the year before, Toledo and T Tech, a 10 win season, I believe.  Poor coaching selection due to ignorance and/or situation at the time has put us in a 25 to 30 year slump.  Not Program Ceiling.
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hawganatic

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #20 on: September 20, 2017, 09:36:27 am »

Did anyone say anything about quitting? It's called reality!

You didn't use the word quit, but that's essentially what you are talking about.  You can accept "reality" or you can shatter it and recreate it to what you want.

Might not ever get there, but that doesn't mean you lay down and just accept what you are given.
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Quickdraw

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #21 on: September 20, 2017, 09:39:48 am »

That is a ridiculous number of one sentence paragraphs.

You are spot on. I expect this year will be more of the same as all the other coaches that have come through the program.
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Swestwill66

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #22 on: September 20, 2017, 10:09:57 am »

Seems like all losers have motto of losing isn't an option
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bphi11ips

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #23 on: September 20, 2017, 10:27:04 am »

Actually I have seen NO ONE claim that. Actually pretty much everyone says that is exactly what the Hogs will do occasionally, jump up and have a 9win+ season and make a run at a div title.

But to expect a new coach to come in and elevate the Hogs above that type of roller coaster ride is just not realistic. Most schools have that type of chart. They plod along at 7 or so wins, then have a really good year or two, then back down.

Actually most schools don't. Most schools' history of football season records looks like Indiana or Illinios or Vanderbily or Kentucky or any number of other average schools.  In spite of being presented with data showing 8 Top 10 finishes in 11 years, for example, you insist that Arkansas produces a good team once in a generation.   You also refuse to acknowledge that every school has gone through long periods of relative mediocrity.  See Alabama from 1979 to 2009.

College football has been completely dominated for 80 years by about ten programs.  Behind those ten are twenty or so more who have had long periods of sustained success and who have the ability at any given time to field a team capable of beating the top ten.  Those same programs have the ability to sustain long periods of success in the future with the right head coach.  Arkansas is one of the twenty, and Bret Bielema may be the coach.  We don't know yet.
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hogsanity

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #24 on: September 20, 2017, 10:32:00 am »

Actually most schools don't. Most schools' history of football season records looks like Indiana or Illinios or Vanderbily or Kentucky or any number of other average schools.  In spite of being presented with data showing 8 Top 10 finishes in 11 years, for example, you insist that Arkansas produces a good team once in a generation.   You also refuse to acknowledge that every school has gone through long periods of relative mediocrity.  See Alabama from 1979 to 2009.

College football has been completely dominated for 80 years by about ten programs.  Behind those ten are twenty or so more who have had long periods of sustained success and who have the ability at any given time to field a team capable of beating the top ten.  Those same programs have the ability to sustain long periods of success in the future with the right head coach.  Arkansas is one of the twenty, and Bret Bielema may be the coach.  We don't know yet.

So wait, we are supposed to look back and base future expectations off of history, or we are not? I am told both here. And when I have presented the once ( actually I have said about once a decade ) whatever has been based on the averages, never said it was cut and dried once every X years.
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bphi11ips

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #25 on: September 20, 2017, 11:04:59 am »

So wait, we are supposed to look back and base future expectations off of history, or we are not? I am told both here. And when I have presented the once ( actually I have said about once a decade ) whatever has been based on the averages, never said it was cut and dried once every X years.

Would you like me to pull your post where you said once per generation?  Regardless, once per decade is equally wrong.

Of course we should predict the future based on the past, especially in the context of college football. Where do you think the term "tradition" came from?  "Tradition"  in college football, is an indicator of a program's potential in any given future year. Factors fueling success can change over time, but those factors - recruiting base, booster support, facilities, etc., remain fairly constant. The one variable that can jump start any program with the built in infrastructure to support sustained success is the head coach.  We have been looking for that coach for 25 years. Our ceiling may be lower than it was in the SWC, but not by as much as many would have everyone believe. 

You choose to ignore the history I and others post here because acknowleding it would undermine your negative comments and projections about the Razorbacks football program.  Instead, you act like a pigeon losing a chess match.  You crap on the board and strut around like you won.

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Swestwill66

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #26 on: September 20, 2017, 11:40:07 am »

I certainly don't think the product of the last few years are acceptable. We can do better. BP proved that. A good coach with good system can accomplish a lot.
 Look at Auburn or LSU. What should their expectation be every year? With all that talent across the board and they can't get it done. Look at Miss St. Good quarterback and good system with nowhere near the talent of LSU.
You don't have to have great players if you have a good coach and systems like BP or Mullen. With a quarterback to run it. With a good coach comes hope,belief that you have a chance against anyone.
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Boss Hog in the Arkansas

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #27 on: September 20, 2017, 11:54:37 am »

7 or 8 wins a year not being a down year IS a problem
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Swestwill66

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #28 on: September 20, 2017, 11:59:48 am »

7 or 8 wins a year not being a down year IS a problem

TRUE
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bphi11ips

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #29 on: September 20, 2017, 12:02:39 pm »

Great posts by 12247 and Swestwill66.

My only contention at this time is that Bret Bielema does have a system, it has been successful before at Wisconsin, it was going to take 4 or 5 years minimum to implement, we knew that when he got here, he has been very close to very good seasons already, we have beaten a number of very good teams since he arrived, there are classic examples of coaches with similar philosophies at schools similar to Arkansas where the system kicked in in years 5 or 6, and it may kick in this year or next year for Arkansas.  Whether one believes that will happen or not, we really don't know yet.  However, I believe the best thing for the long-term health of the Razorbacks' football program, absent an absolute worst-case scenario collapse this year, is to give Bret Bielema through the end of his current contract to prove his concept.

Some of us, including myself, have said for months that this season could go anywhere from 3-9 to 9-3. TCU was always a game in my mind that was going to come down to the last possession, and it almost did.  The Horned Frogs have the most seniors starting of any team in the country, Gary Patterson has fielded 5 defenses in 16 years that led the NCAA in Total Defense (think about that for a second), and they are currently undefeated and ranked 15th in the country.  They were favored by 3.5 but we took them to the wire.  28-7 was not indicative of the game itself.  Yes - they turned the ball over in the red zone.  We had first downs twice inside the 5 and failed to score.  Based upon what I have seen from Auburn and LSU, I'll put the ceiling for Arkansas wins now at 10.  Based on what I have seen from South Carolina and Missouri, and Arkansas's defense against TCU, I think the floor is probably more like 6.

Time to start focusing on the fact that we are playing the Aggies.  Break out the jokes.

Did you hear about the Aggie who picked a 5 pound booger?







His head caved in.   :D   
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The_Iceman

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #30 on: September 20, 2017, 12:10:38 pm »

What always cracks me up is people who just act like there aren't 13 other teams in this league trying to win games just as much as we are.
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Swestwill66

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #31 on: September 20, 2017, 12:14:15 pm »

What always cracks me up is people who just act like there aren't 13 other teams in this league trying to win games just as much as we are.

Yea,it's gonna be tough for everyone in the sec to have10 or 11 win seasons!
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The_Iceman

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #32 on: September 20, 2017, 12:25:37 pm »

Yea,it's gonna be tough for everyone in the sec to have10 or 11 win seasons!

I heard some national guy on Bo's show say a&m, LSU, and Auburn fans deserve better than 8 wins a year.

Let's assume they are 4-0 non conference. All 3 beat OM, Miss State, and Arkansas. All lose to Bama. That puts them at 7-1. They win their 2 eastern games, that's 9-1. Now they just fight for positioning at that point.

See how ridiculous it is to have these kinds of expectations? And that is for 3 powerhouse programs with HUGE recruiting and prestige advantages over Arkansas.
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swinemaster

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #33 on: September 20, 2017, 12:31:54 pm »

In the year of Frank Broyles death, it should be noted and remembered that as a University we took the job of hiring a coach out of the hands of the man who has an award named after him for hiring coaches.  It is a disgrace that we decided to let a committee hire a coach instead of Frank Broyles.  This is how we got Nutt. 

Frank wanted Mike Leach.  He actually hired him.  But we said "hold up Frank"  let us handle this.  We want an up and comer from Boise State who just went 4-7.

With all of this honoring, there should be an apology.  JMHO.
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HamSammich

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #34 on: September 20, 2017, 12:33:40 pm »

I've rewatched the TCU game 4 times. I hate to say this but we are not winning 7 this year. We are not going to beat TAMU.

But other than that I could live with 8 wins a year.
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Swestwill66

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #35 on: September 20, 2017, 12:40:45 pm »

In the year of Frank Broyles death, it should be noted and remembered that as a University we took the job of hiring a coach out of the hands of the man who has an award named after him for hiring coaches.  It is a disgrace that we decided to let a committee hire a coach instead of Frank Broyles.  This is how we got Nutt. 

Frank wanted Mike Leach.  He actually hired him.  But we said "hold up Frank"  let us handle this.  We want an up and comer from Boise State who just went 4-7.

With all of this honoring, there should be an apology.  JMHO.
I think it was tuberville that Frank wanted
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hogsanity

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #36 on: September 20, 2017, 12:46:38 pm »

In the year of Frank Broyles death, it should be noted and remembered that as a University we took the job of hiring a coach out of the hands of the man who has an award named after him for hiring coaches.  It is a disgrace that we decided to let a committee hire a coach instead of Frank Broyles.  This is how we got Nutt. 

Frank wanted Mike Leach.  He actually hired him.  But we said "hold up Frank"  let us handle this.  We want an up and comer from Boise State who just went 4-7.

With all of this honoring, there should be an apology.  JMHO.

Well, it was Tubberville, but the point is valid. WEhen JFb was allowed to go do what Ad's used to do, go out with a checkbook and hire the guy they wanted JFB brough the Hogs Holtz, Hatfield and Ford in football. Sutton and Nolan in basketball, DVH in baseball, and John M in track.
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EastexHawg

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #37 on: September 20, 2017, 12:50:53 pm »

Look at Auburn or LSU. What should their expectation be every year? With all that talent across the board and they can't get it done. Look at Miss St. Good

LSU hired Orgeron, a monumental failure at Ole Miss and a man I find it hard to believe anyone will listen to or watch and say, "That is one highly intelligent football coach."  They hired him because he sounds like a caveman version of Justin Wilson , because he is "one of them".  It was a stupid hire for a program with LSU's cachet and they are going to pay the price for it.
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GuvHog

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #38 on: September 20, 2017, 12:54:56 pm »

In the year of Frank Broyles death, it should be noted and remembered that as a University we took the job of hiring a coach out of the hands of the man who has an award named after him for hiring coaches.  It is a disgrace that we decided to let a committee hire a coach instead of Frank Broyles.  This is how we got Nutt. 

Frank wanted Mike Leach.  He actually hired him.  But we said "hold up Frank"  let us handle this.  We want an up and comer from Boise State who just went 4-7.

With all of this honoring, there should be an apology.  JMHO.

Frank wanted Tommy Tuberville when Houston Nutt was hired. Heck, Orville Henry even announced that Tuberville would be the next Hog HC and was angry when the committee decided otherwise.
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Swestwill66

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #39 on: September 20, 2017, 01:05:44 pm »

A little off topic but why in the world would a school like Florida hire a Ron Zook or their current coach? Why would Tennessee hire young Dooley or Butch? Why would top rated recruits go to these schools pretty much knowing they are never going to win with these guys?
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hogsanity

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #40 on: September 20, 2017, 01:52:00 pm »

A little off topic but why in the world would a school like Florida hire a Ron Zook or their current coach? Why would Tennessee hire young Dooley or Butch? Why would top rated recruits go to these schools pretty much knowing they are never going to win with these guys?

Zook was seen by many as a great recruiter. The guy they have now is a Saban disciple. Only thing I can think of for either.
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swinemaster

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #41 on: September 22, 2017, 01:44:35 pm »

Frank wanted Tommy Tuberville when Houston Nutt was hired. Heck, Orville Henry even announced that Tuberville would be the next Hog HC and was angry when the committee decided otherwise.

Tuberville was the only candidate that was officially offered the job.  BUT, Leach goes into great detail about his interview with Frank in his book, "Swing Your Sword".  He said that Frank told him personally that he wanted to hire him but the committee was in charge at this point.
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rickfahr

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #42 on: September 22, 2017, 01:58:16 pm »

I've seen some posters on this board say their expectation for Arkansas football is to win at least 7 or 8 games in a "Down Year."

That's completely unrealistic, based on the numbers going back for the entirety of Arkansas' time in the SEC.

Another poster did the math for Arkansas vs SEC opponents since joining the league 25 years ago.

For the last 25 years, the Hogs have a 48% winning percentage in SEC play.

With 8 conference games a year, the Hogs can typically count on  3.8 SEC wins a year (That's 8 X .48).

Because you cannot win .8 of a game, that means Hogs will average 3 or 4 SEC wins a year.

If the Hogs sweep nonconference play, that's another 4 wins (at least since 4th nonconference game was added). But that's IF...

4 nonconference plus 3 SEC  equals 7.

4 noncon plus 4 SEC equals 8.

Just to win 7 or 8 games, the Hogs have to be perfect in Nonconference, and get their average number of SEC wins.

Perfect in nonconference and average is SEC is not a "Down Year."

I cannot understand where people get this very optimistic "7 or 8 wins in a down year" idea.

A "Down Year" for Arkansas means winning 5 or 4, or fewer games for the whole season.

The same poster also did the math for the Bobby Petrino years.

Under Petrino, the Hogs won 59% of their SEC games. 59% of 8 is 4.72. Again, you cannot win.72 of a game.

So the Hogs won, on average, 4 or 5 SEC games per year with Petrino.
The actual numbers were as follows:

2008 won 2 SEC games.
2009 won 3 SEC gams.
2010 won 6 SEC games.
2011 won 6 SEC games.


Two years under the average. Two years over. Hence the average. (By the way, Hootie Dale is the only Hog coach to win 7 SEC games, in 2006)

4 or 5 SEC wins plus a sweep of nonconference play would be 8 or 9 wins on average.

During Petrino's 4 years, the Hogs won 34 games.  34 wins divided by 4 years is 8.5 games a year.

So Bobby Petrino, considered by many on this board to be the single greatest most-awesomest coach Arkansas could ever hope to land in a million-jillion years averaged a half-game over 8 wins a year.

But some want to set the baseline for the Hogs so that "8 wins" is a "Down Year?"

Some Hog fans have completely, totally unrealistic expectations for the program.

And this is not a "realistic fan" saying so. This is hard, cold mathematics based on a 25-year-history in the SEC saying so.

Okay, so add all Hog football wins from 1992 (start of SEC play) until 2016 listed at this page. That's all wins, not just SEC wins.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Arkansas_Razorbacks_football_seasons

When I do that I get 167. (added three times, and got same number all three times)

167 divided by 25 is 6.68 wins per season. Which means the Hogs have averaged 6 or 7 wins a season for the last quarter century.

So if 8 total wins is a "Down Year" in the eyes of some fans, what's 6 or 7 wins? Again, Hogs have average 6.68 wins a year for a quarter of a century now.

One last number. If Bielema's 2017 team wins only 6 games this year, that would mean he'd have won 31 games over 5 years. 31 divided by 5 is 6.2 win per season.

Which is right where the Hogs have averaged for the last 25 years. 6 or 7 wins a year.

But Bielema is the worst coach ever, in Arkansas history right?

you are a [CENSORED]
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moses_007

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #43 on: September 22, 2017, 02:07:36 pm »

It doesn't matter what it's considered, 7 or 8 wins per year isn't that great.  We've been accustomed to that, sure, but we aren't satisfied with it.

I won't be satisfied until we get into the 9-11 wins per year category.  I don't think that will ever be possible with the current coach and how he plays the game.
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DeltaBoy

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #44 on: September 22, 2017, 02:15:36 pm »

WOW we have really sucked since Ken Hatfield left.  I guess we need a Water Boy to bail us out.
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root_hawg

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #45 on: September 22, 2017, 02:44:04 pm »

It doesn't matter what it's considered, 7 or 8 wins per year isn't that great.  We've been accustomed to that, sure, but we aren't satisfied with it.

I won't be satisfied until we get into the 9-11 wins per year category.  I don't think that will ever be possible with the current coach and how he plays the game.

You won't ever be satisfied...
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hogsanity

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #46 on: September 22, 2017, 03:14:37 pm »

It doesn't matter what it's considered, 7 or 8 wins per year isn't that great.  We've been accustomed to that, sure, but we aren't satisfied with it.

I won't be satisfied until we get into the 9-11 wins per year category.  I don't think that will ever be possible with the current coach and how he plays the game.

He did not say 7 or 8 wins was great, he just pointed out that it is not a "down" year for Hog football. A down year would be 4 - 6 wins.
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GuvHog

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #47 on: September 22, 2017, 03:29:43 pm »

He did not say 7 or 8 wins was great, he just pointed out that it is not a "down" year for Hog football. A down year would be 4 - 6 wins.

8 wins in regular season should be the minimum for the U of A football program (with the exception of a new head coach's first year).
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Razorpigg

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #48 on: September 22, 2017, 03:35:03 pm »

A 7 win season means 6-6 with a win in a low level bowl game or a 7-5 regular season with a bowl loss.  2-6 in conference gets you to 6-6 most years.  How is that not only acceptable, but in line with expectations for any fan?

Its not its just reality. Cant argue with facts man it is what it is.
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hogsanity

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Re: Math: Why 7 or 8 Wins is NOT a "Down Year" for Arkansas.
« Reply #49 on: September 22, 2017, 03:45:04 pm »

8 wins in regular season should be the minimum for the U of A football program (with the exception of a new head coach's first year).

Except that would be 1 full game above the programs all time win %, and .5 above the win % since 1958. So we want to set the floor above what, on average, has been maybe not the ceiling but definitely close.
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