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Author Topic: Sunday's 11th race at Saratoga  (Read 203 times)

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heavylifting

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Sunday's 11th race at Saratoga
« on: July 23, 2017, 12:25:43 am »

A couple of longshot possibilities pop off the page at me in this maiden claiming race on the turf that follows the Coaching Club American Oaks.

Harlan's Vador, # 2, is a 3-year-old colt by Harlan's Holiday that tries the turf for the first time. Not sure if the sire ever turfed (I seem to recall he was the favorite in the Ky Derby the year he ran in it), but I've had good success with his offspring when they make the switch in surfaces from the brown stuff to the green stuff. Last out, he showed some early spirit at Ellis Park and now McPeek (who trained the sire, by the way) ships this guy east for this race. If he was as hopeless as his 30-1 indicates, why didn't McPeek just leave him at Ellis? After all, they have a turf course, too. Dylan Davis has been winning at a fair clip in New York of late at hefty prices; only adds to this one's appeal and the rail means he shouldn't get hung wide. 30-1 ML has me salivating. Bet he goes off much higher.

Knight Errant, # 3, from Nick Zito, ran a decent 2nd at Monmouth Park last out in a race I alluded to in my post today re Monmouth. Was beaten by a 48-1 shot that wired the field and then came back to tire after trying to take a salty field of veteran Jersey-bred allowance runners in similar fashion, only to falter late. Anyhow, Monmouth shippers have been doing well lately -- see Friday's 2nd, 7th and 10th races at Saratoga, as well as the 12-1 winner of Saturday's Sanford -- and this guy also gets the benefit of Florent Geroux in the saddle. ML is 20-1.

Main threats are parked outside and there is always the possibility (hope, in my case) that someone will redirect them to the parking lot. The Chad Brown runner with Jose Ortiz will probably take most of the money off two second-place finishes against similar.

A strong possibility is Starstruck Kitten, # 10, third time out off two 4th-place finishes on the grass. But note that he is a first-time gelding and owner Ken Ramsey LOVES to win races at Saratoga, even if it means dropping a horse in class and risking losing it (although this guy ran for 40K last time, too).

Although it's a cheap race for Saratoga, I love to exploit chances like this, especially when the betting public is ragged after a long day of 10 previous races. Biggest question in my mind is will I restrain myself in order to have enough left to bet with by the time they get around to this race?
« Last Edit: July 23, 2017, 12:40:34 am by heavylifting »
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