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Author Topic: Indiana Derby this weekend  (Read 299 times)

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husker71

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Indiana Derby this weekend
« on: July 11, 2017, 08:54:30 pm »

any thoughts ??  seems like the field is pretty salty.
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holeinthewall

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Re: Indiana Derby this weekend
« Reply #1 on: July 12, 2017, 07:08:31 am »

I haven't watched much raving lately. Who is in the field.  I will play Indiana on occasion when the fields are full.
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kingoftherapids

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Re: Indiana Derby this weekend
« Reply #2 on: July 12, 2017, 02:12:05 pm »

Society Beau (KY)       3/C    L    J Graham    121    N J Howard
2    Irap (KY)       3/C    L    M Gutierrez    124    D F O'Neill
3    Wild Shot (KY)       3/C    L    C J Lanerie    124    G R Arnold, II
4    Brockton George (FL)       3/C    L    M R Cruz    117    K G McPeek
5    Hollywood Handsome (KY)       3/C    L    F Geroux    121    D Stewart
6    Han Sense (IA)       3/C    L    J Bravo    117    M J Maker
7    Top Credentials (KY)       3/C    L    R A Prescott    117    J T Spicer
8    Awesome Saturday (KY)       3/C    L    B J Hernandez, Jr.    121    W B Calhoun
9    Untrapped (KY)       3/C    L    R Santana, Jr.    117    S M Asmussen
10    Colonelsdarktemper (KY)       3/C    L    J K Court    121    W H Fires
11    Watch Me Whip (KY)       3/C    L    R Albarado    117    D L Romans
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ghostzapper

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Re: Indiana Derby this weekend
« Reply #3 on: July 15, 2017, 09:57:45 pm »

Irap was impressive
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HogFanInBryant

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Re: Indiana Derby this weekend
« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2017, 08:37:27 pm »

Irap was impressive

Irap kinda looks like he might want to run a bit further.  It's gonna be interesting to see if they dabble in the Haskell, Travers, or both!  Classic Empire isn't right so they decided to train him up to the Travers supposedly.
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ghostzapper

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Re: Indiana Derby this weekend
« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2017, 09:40:05 pm »

I am going to guess that Irap's Beyer fig is the best by a 3 year old this year.  And you can add six points to it because of his trip.
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ghostzapper

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Re: Indiana Derby this weekend
« Reply #6 on: July 16, 2017, 09:45:15 pm »

Or not.  96.  That makes no sense to me.
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kingoftherapids

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Re: Indiana Derby this weekend
« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2017, 01:51:04 am »

Live I've been saying for years. Beyers are worthless. figures players should never go off beyer. rags or timeform are a hundred times better
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ghostzapper

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Re: Indiana Derby this weekend
« Reply #8 on: July 19, 2017, 07:54:48 pm »

Disagree and the pick 5 I hit on next to last Saturday at Bel does too.
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userpick

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Re: Indiana Derby this weekend
« Reply #9 on: July 20, 2017, 10:50:04 am »

Disagree and the pick 5 I hit on next to last Saturday at Bel does too.

Congrats on the score. But do you think beyer figures had much to do with it? Because I don't.
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ghostzapper

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Re: Indiana Derby this weekend
« Reply #10 on: July 20, 2017, 09:23:46 pm »

Thanks. I didn't have 7 in the last leg so that was a fun stretch drive.

 Given that I wouldn't bet on a race without them, Beyers have everything to do with the outcome.  And it isn't just the final Beyer.  You can extrapolate internal pace Beyers and they can be helpful.  All of the races that day were won by horses who either had won or could be projected to run the Beyer par for their race.

What bothers me about most criticisms of Beyers is that the critics think Beyer disciples just take the last highest number and play it.  That's not how I use them and no good Beyer disciple I know of does either.  I like the pick 4s and 5s because you can combine multiple horses, and it is possible to identify with a high degree of confidence if you have a race covered.  Beyers let me do that.

The one example of a "not the highest Beyer fig" play I did was in the 3rd leg.  Irad was on a 4 year old trained by Brian Lynch.  He was making his first start of the year, and Lynch is good with horses off the layoff. His last race as a 3year old was on the turf at Belmont, and I think his number was a 72.  The race was populated with horses whose best numbers were 74-77.  The leap from 3 to 4 year old year is huge, and this horse projected to top 80 given his 3 year old performance.  I singled him on my pick 3, 4 and 5 tickets and he went off at 10-1 because Castellano was on one of the 77 horses that went off at 4/5.  Irad won by 4.  The next race was populated with 6 horses that could top the 90 Beyer mark, I played 5 of them, and the longest one came in. 

I couldn't have done it without Beyers. 
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