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Author Topic: Maybe, even probably, ...  (Read 576 times)

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Iwastherein1969

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Maybe, even probably, ...
« on: May 06, 2017, 07:40:30 pm »

the least exciting Ky Derby in my lifetime. Sloppy track, slow time and even the celebrities sucked.
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userpick

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2017, 07:47:41 pm »

But a horse that can run all day. Just gotta pray he stays sound.
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Iwastherein1969

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2017, 07:56:12 pm »

But a horse that can run all day. Just gotta pray he stays sound.
I think the race took a lot out of the winner....gotta feeling he (the winner) bounces right into the rested up and short closing running style of CMM's perfect running style....we'll see
''
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mckinneyhog5

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #3 on: May 06, 2017, 08:02:14 pm »

AD galloped out nicely with ears still pricked up. He looked like he could have ran another 1/4 mile. Just my observation though.
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Iwastherein1969

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #4 on: May 06, 2017, 08:09:31 pm »

AD galloped out nicely with ears still pricked up. He looked like he could have ran another 1/4 mile. Just my observation though.
yep, very well could...this isn't the type of year for a horse to be going into the Belmont looking to make history....it just doesn't feel that way....God knows I could be wrong....seems like I have been all day....my only saver was that I made my biggest bet of the day on the nose of Corey Lanerie in the Pat Day mile....saved my rear end
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mckinneyhog5

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #5 on: May 06, 2017, 08:15:22 pm »

yep, very well could...this isn't the type of year for a horse to be going into the Belmont looking to make history....it just doesn't feel that way....God knows I could be wrong....seems like I have been all day....my only saver was that I made my biggest bet of the day on the nose of Corey Lanerie in the Pat Day mile....saved my rear end
I'm thinking for the Preakness a AD, Conquest Mo Money Ex box. But agreed someone will trip up AD in the Belmont.
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userpick

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #6 on: May 06, 2017, 08:17:29 pm »

I'm thinking for the Preakness a AD, Conquest Mo Money Ex box. But agreed someone will trip up AD in the Belmont.

I'm the opposite. I think the race he could lose is Preakness. I think he's a very very likely winner in Belmont. Pace won't be hot and he's made to run a long way
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HogFanInBryant

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #7 on: May 06, 2017, 08:57:02 pm »

If LAL couldn't get past AD today with that pace to run into and the perfect trip...he'll never run him down.  Will have to be another horse.  I predict that AD wins the Preakness easily and loses the Belmont to Classic Empire if all are healthy at the time.  Battle of Midway needs to start training for one turn mile races immediately...he is a talented SOB!
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GoHogs1091

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #8 on: May 06, 2017, 10:57:11 pm »

This race didn't really tell us a lot.

The track should have been in better shape.  It looked to me that they did not seal it, which if that is the case, then the Trainers and Derby horse owners should be asking why it was not sealed. 

Irish War Cry, Classic Empire, and some others had traffic trouble.  Eventually, hopefully Churchill Downs, Inc. will figure out that a 20 horse "stampede" does not equate to a cleanly run race.  Should only be 14 horses in the field.

Always Dreaming got a perfect trip.  A lot of horses can win when they get a perfect trip.
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ghostzapper

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #9 on: May 06, 2017, 11:00:43 pm »

Dude, Giacomo is the worst Derby win ever, 
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userpick

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #10 on: May 06, 2017, 11:01:31 pm »

This race didn't really tell us a lot.

The track should have been in better shape.  It looked to me that they did not seal it, which if that is the case, then the Trainers and Derby horse owners should be asking why it was not sealed. 

Irish War Cry, Classic Empire, and some others had traffic trouble.  Eventually, hopefully Churchill Downs, Inc. will figure out that a 20 horse "stampede" does not equate to a cleanly run race.  Should only be 14 horses in the field.

Always Dreaming got a perfect trip.  A lot of horses can win when they get a perfect trip.

Great horses create great trips.
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GoHogs1091

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #11 on: May 06, 2017, 11:10:09 pm »

Great horses create great trips.

In some cases that is true.

In some other cases, a perfect trip is luck.

Always Dreaming won the Florida Derby on a souped up Gulfstream Park track.  Then he won on a muddy, bad shape Churchill Downs track.

We will have to see how he does when he is on an honest surface.
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ghostzapper

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #12 on: May 06, 2017, 11:47:50 pm »

You have to give AD credit for living up to his ability.  Whether that is superior to all of his peers remains to be seen.  There is debate as to whether the fig is a 106 which, if true, puts him in Smarty Jones' territory. 
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Iwastherein1969

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #13 on: May 07, 2017, 08:57:34 am »

Dude, Giacomo is the worst Derby win ever,
well, that remains to be seen...Giacomo was no super horse but he didn't fold his tent and run from competition, although I am no Giacomo fan, I certainly believe he could have run under 2:03 seconds yesterday..we'll see just how good Always Dreaming really is in a couple of weeks
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kingoftherapids

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #14 on: May 08, 2017, 12:57:39 am »

I was impressed
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Iwastherein1969

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #15 on: May 08, 2017, 08:18:01 am »

I was impressed
He got the dream trip...flanked 2nd on the rail just to the inside of a 54-1 shot who you knew was going to suddenly give it up and Always Dreaming was always going to find himself on the lead without really working for it...that's the best trip of a KY DERBY winner since I can remember when....it just doesn't get any easier...no doubt the horse has talent, but dream trips in a 20 horse field are as rare as hen's teeth....we shall see what he's made of in just under two weeks...who knows, you may be right....Pletcher is as good as there is for getting a horse ready for one big effort, except this time he has only two weeks to get Always Dreaming put back together again instead of laying his stakes winning horses off for 2 months after a big effort....time will tell
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userpick

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #16 on: May 08, 2017, 10:33:25 am »

He got the dream trip...flanked 2nd on the rail just to the inside of a 54-1 shot who you knew was going to suddenly give it up and Always Dreaming was always going to find himself on the lead without really working for it...that's the best trip of a KY DERBY winner since I can remember when....it just doesn't get any easier...no doubt the horse has talent, but dream trips in a 20 horse field are as rare as hen's teeth....we shall see what he's made of in just under two weeks...who knows, you may be right....Pletcher is as good as there is for getting a horse ready for one big effort, except this time he has only two weeks to get Always Dreaming put back together again instead of laying his stakes winning horses off for 2 months after a big effort....time will tell

Fair point. I'm president of the Always Dreaming fan club and the Preakness is the one that worries me. If he gets to the third leg, we will be looking at another triple crown winner.

The most understated point that is not being made about this horse and Pletcher is that Pletcher did not have this one as a 2 year old running 3 thorographs in debut at Saratoga. This horse wasn't grinded down as a 2 year old where it really has an impact on him. Who knows, y'all could be right and he may be worn down completely, but I'm cheering for the triple crown excitement on Belmont day. Good for the game.
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kingoftherapids

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #17 on: May 08, 2017, 10:58:23 am »

He got the dream trip...flanked 2nd on the rail just to the inside of a 54-1 shot who you knew was going to suddenly give it up and Always Dreaming was always going to find himself on the lead without really working for it...that's the best trip of a KY DERBY winner since I can remember when....it just doesn't get any easier...no doubt the horse has talent, but dream trips in a 20 horse field are as rare as hen's teeth....we shall see what he's made of in just under two weeks...who knows, you may be right....Pletcher is as good as there is for getting a horse ready for one big effort, except this time he has only two weeks to get Always Dreaming put back together again instead of laying his stakes winning horses off for 2 months after a big effort....time will tell
a horse can have a perfect trip and be impressive, no?
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Iwastherein1969

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #18 on: May 08, 2017, 09:05:41 pm »

a horse can have a perfect trip and be impressive, no?
I said he's a nice horse....but (and yes I know I'm CMM's biggest fan) CMM will hang around a long time in the Preakness....I just love this average looking horse's grit and determination and I see Conquest Mo Money, with very fresh legs, making Always Dreaming work for everything he gets....I'm no hater, far from it, but you must admit the only mud on John Velazquez's silks were from other jockey's patting him on the back on the gallop back to the winner's circle
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userpick

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #19 on: May 08, 2017, 10:05:10 pm »

I said he's a nice horse....but (and yes I know I'm CMM's biggest fan) CMM will hang around a long time in the Preakness....I just love this average looking horse's grit and determination and I see Conquest Mo Money, with very fresh legs, making Always Dreaming work for everything he gets....I'm no hater, far from it, but you must admit the only mud on John Velazquez's silks were from other jockey's patting him on the back on the gallop back to the winner's circle

I have no issue with anyone ever trying to beat chalk, especially when the trainer is no good in these type of situations. But can we say with any confidence that Dreaming won't get another perfect trip in the Preakness? He just seems like the type of horse that can push a button and immediately get out of a bad position. Of course we've never seen him on short rest. Will be a fun race.
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cbhawg03

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #20 on: May 08, 2017, 11:34:22 pm »

Fair point. I'm president of the Always Dreaming fan club and the Preakness is the one that worries me. If he gets to the third leg, we will be looking at another triple crown winner.

The most understated point that is not being made about this horse and Pletcher is that Pletcher did not have this one as a 2 year old running 3 thorographs in debut at Saratoga. This horse wasn't grinded down as a 2 year old where it really has an impact on him. Who knows, y'all could be right and he may be worn down completely, but I'm cheering for the triple crown excitement on Belmont day. Good for the game.

Im not sure that I would trust userpick.  Me personally, I think he has perhaps been hanging around Racing dudes so long that he now has a man crush on Lukas and all his disciples.  So his opinion is now biased.  He has Lukas aviators on and ignores all of Pletchers flaws.  At least userpick can use all of his AD winnings to pay for the horse racing forum get together should AD be going for the triple crown lol

Pletcher will try to get congress to move the Preakness out 3 or 4 more weeks so that he has 6 weeks and then get the Belmont moved as well. 

I got more faith in an Arky bred winning the AR Derby next year than Pletcher winning 3 races in 5 weeks with the same horse. 
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userpick

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #21 on: May 08, 2017, 11:54:41 pm »

Im not sure that I would trust userpick.  Me personally, I think he has perhaps been hanging around Racing dudes so long that he now has a man crush on Lukas and all his disciples.  So his opinion is now biased.  He has Lukas aviators on and ignores all of Pletchers flaws.  At least userpick can use all of his AD winnings to pay for the horse racing forum get together should AD be going for the triple crown lol

Pletcher will try to get congress to move the Preakness out 3 or 4 more weeks so that he has 6 weeks and then get the Belmont moved as well. 

I got more faith in an Arky bred winning the AR Derby next year than Pletcher winning 3 races in 5 weeks with the same horse. 

You better beat him in two weeks! Cause he ain't losing in New York if he loads in that gate.
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The Hogfather

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #22 on: May 09, 2017, 11:33:35 am »

I have no issue with anyone ever trying to beat chalk, especially when the trainer is no good in these type of situations. But can we say with any confidence that Dreaming won't get another perfect trip in the Preakness? He just seems like the type of horse that can push a button and immediately get out of a bad position. Of course we've never seen him on short rest. Will be a fun race.

I think he'll get a good trip, but so will others.  If Classic Empire comes back in the Preakness, he gets my money.  I thought his race was pretty dang impressive with what happened to him out of the gate and how wide he had to go into the stretch.
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userpick

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #23 on: May 09, 2017, 11:37:22 am »

I think he'll get a good trip, but so will others.  If Classic Empire comes back in the Preakness, he gets my money.  I thought his race was pretty dang impressive with what happened to him out of the gate and how wide he had to go into the stretch.

I hope he gets everyone's money lol.
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userpick

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #24 on: May 09, 2017, 11:54:10 am »

TimeformUS figs from Derby:

Always Dreaming:123(123 in Fla Derby as well)
Lookin at Lee: 118(113 in Ark Derby)
Battle of Midway:115(116 in SA Derby)
Classic Empire: 112(115 in Ark Derby, 125 in Breeders Cup)

Conquest Mo Money: 116 in Ark Derby

Just looking at these numbers alone, Always Dreaming will have to regress pretty badly in Preakness to give the others a shot. He paired up his florida derby run so wasn't like he ran through his skin and expecting a bounce come Preakness time. CMM could get in range if he improves quite a bit, but seems unlikely. Classic Empire has the talent to run that fast, but something just seems off to me. I can't see anyone else having a chance in the Preakness.

« Last Edit: May 09, 2017, 03:23:52 pm by userpick »
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riccoar

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #25 on: May 09, 2017, 02:10:31 pm »

Just a bad rookie take on Derby.  Classic Empire easily gets 3rd if he's not body slammed coming down the stretch.  If Always runs like that next race, he wins easily.  However, I think he will get the same as Smarty Jones in the Belmont.
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ghostzapper

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Re: Maybe, even probably, ...
« Reply #26 on: May 09, 2017, 02:38:56 pm »

Only horse to outrun AD's final quarter time was Looking at Lee.  That's relatively impressive given he was up on the pace. 
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