Hogville Info
• 9,292,467 Posts
• 382,782 Topics
• 21,401 Hogvillians
THE RULES (Read 'em!)
Quick Links
Pick'Ems:Football      Basketball      Baseball
Sister Sites:Gridiron HistoryFearless Friday
Listen NOW:Game ON 103.3 
  
Pages: [1] 2   Go Down

Author Topic: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?  (Read 1454 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

HogFanInBryant

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 3,231
Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« on: April 28, 2017, 07:37:14 pm »

In order...who are your top 3 as of right now?
Mine are (I had to change due to BR being taken out of KD consideration):
1. Classic Empire
2. Practical Joke
3. Gunnevera
« Last Edit: April 29, 2017, 04:35:16 pm by HogFanInBryant »
Logged

mckinneyhog5

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 7,664
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #1 on: April 29, 2017, 09:57:38 am »

I'll go...in no particular order

Classic Empire
Girvin
Hence
Logged

Sponsored Ad



Hogville encourages you to do business with the following...

porkinsons disease

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1,417
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #2 on: April 29, 2017, 10:12:36 am »

Early pics are
1-Gunnevera
2-Classic Empire
3-Always Dreaming

could change 3-5 times before the race
Logged

HogFanInBryant

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 3,231
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #3 on: April 29, 2017, 12:56:55 pm »

I'll go...in no particular order

Classic Empire
Girvin
Hence

I think Hence could be the wise guy horse in the KD this year.  Lots of folks like him but kinda quiet about it lol.  I know the post positions will make this more interesting but I'm only wanting to know who everyone is really high on.
Logged

HogFanInBryant

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 3,231
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #4 on: April 29, 2017, 12:58:06 pm »

Early pics are
1-Gunnevera
2-Classic Empire
3-Always Dreaming

could change 3-5 times before the race

Supposedly your top selection is doing fantastic...Matt C on TVG said he could be very scary with a good trip.
Logged

userpick

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4,262
  • Welcome to Bluffington.
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #5 on: April 29, 2017, 03:59:52 pm »

Batallion Runner out of the derby.
Logged

HogFanInBryant

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 3,231
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #6 on: April 29, 2017, 04:33:43 pm »

Batallion Runner out of the derby.

Saw it about an hour ago, so is Malagacy.
Logged

userpick

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4,262
  • Welcome to Bluffington.
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #7 on: April 29, 2017, 05:16:23 pm »

1. always dreaming
2. Irish War Cry
3. Gunnevera
Logged

sooiepig_12

  • Varsity
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 325
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #8 on: April 29, 2017, 06:17:12 pm »

I like Patch as a potential longshot.  Lightly raced and finished 2nd in Louisiana after stepping up from Maiden competition. 
Logged

HogFanInBryant

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 3,231
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #9 on: April 29, 2017, 07:23:08 pm »

I like Patch as a potential longshot.  Lightly raced and finished 2nd in Louisiana after stepping up from Maiden competition. 

He will be a HUGE price but no doubt about the talent. 
Logged

porkinsons disease

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1,417
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #10 on: April 29, 2017, 10:08:15 pm »

Supposedly your top selection is doing fantastic...Matt C on TVG said he could be very scary with a good trip.
Yeah, I really like him. Had a terrible post position and a rough trip in the Florida Derby. Should get a good pace to run at. Need to see the PP. Value should be nice. Wouldn't mind seeing another Arkansas Derby horse win it though. He has a good shot.
Logged

sooiepig_12

  • Varsity
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 325
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #11 on: April 30, 2017, 11:33:32 am »

He will be a HUGE price but no doubt about the talent.
Bookmaker has him roughly 55-1 in futures betting currently.  Compared to Lookin' at Lee at 25-1.  Think Patch may be comparable in terms of talent.
Logged

HogFanInBryant

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 3,231
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #12 on: April 30, 2017, 09:04:34 pm »

Yeah, I really like him. Had a terrible post position and a rough trip in the Florida Derby. Should get a good pace to run at. Need to see the PP. Value should be nice. Wouldn't mind seeing another Arkansas Derby horse win it though. He has a good shot.

The only thing is does he have any speed out of the gate?  I know he comes from out of it, but could they gun him out the first 200 yards or so to try and get position, then back him off and tuck him in a nice spot?
Logged

porkinsons disease

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1,417
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #13 on: April 30, 2017, 09:14:48 pm »

Thats the question. He had an outside post in the FD and basically veered to the rail which cost him probably 4 lengths or so. PP will be very important. I think he has enough tactical speed to be a huge factor unless the PP compromises his chances. He's basically a 1 run horse that doesn't shift gears that easily.......I know, it sounds like I'm talking myself off of him. I really like his chances if he get's a clean trip.
Logged

oldman1015

  • Hogvillian
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 1,678
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #14 on: May 01, 2017, 01:28:31 pm »

1.Mccracken
2.Jboys Echo
3.Irish War Cry
Logged

GoHogs1091

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8,308
  • Hogville.net Rocks!
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #15 on: May 01, 2017, 02:50:17 pm »

1. Irish War Cry    Looked very good in the Wood Memorial, on a surface that is known to be a slow and tiring surface.
2.  McCraken    Awesome pedigree.  I always felt that breeding Ghostzapper to a Mare by Seeking the Gold would produce a great racer.  I would not be surprised if McCraken won.
3.  Battle of Midway    A son of Smart Strike, who sired Curlin (who is Irish War Cry's Sire).  Smart Strike was a very good dirt racing stallion.  Smart Strike's dirt racers are tough runners. 
Logged

showhimthewhip

  • Varsity
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 398
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #16 on: May 01, 2017, 03:47:56 pm »

Can I go 5 deep before post positions?

I am going 5 deep before post positions.

1. Always Dreaming
2. Irish War Cry
3. Battle of Midway
4. Classic Empire
5. Gunnevera
Logged

porkinsons disease

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1,417
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #17 on: May 01, 2017, 06:44:59 pm »

The only thing is does he have any speed out of the gate?  I know he comes from out of it, but could they gun him out the first 200 yards or so to try and get position, then back him off and tuck him in a nice spot?
I'm hoping that is the plan. Too many horses to drop back,wait for a lane, and try to pass 19 of them
Logged

jdelo77

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 2,785
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #18 on: May 02, 2017, 01:04:34 pm »

Really leaning towards this

Gunnervera
Always dreaming

I really like those two with these on bottom
 
mccraken  , jboys echo , Irish war cry , classic empire...

Logged

oldman1015

  • Hogvillian
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 1,678
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #19 on: May 02, 2017, 01:40:03 pm »

This year I can't argue with any picks made.
Logged

The Hogfather

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 27,547
  • I love lamp...
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #20 on: May 02, 2017, 01:44:05 pm »

1.  ALL
2.  ALL
3.  ALL

:)

I haven't made up my mind yet, but will likely include Classic Empire, Always Dreaming, and Hence in some fashion.
Logged

showhimthewhip

  • Varsity
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 398
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #21 on: May 02, 2017, 03:34:00 pm »

If I am trying to make a case against Always Dreaming:

He has been way rank in the mornings. I don't expect 160k people and 19 horses around him to remedy that.
Logged

showhimthewhip

  • Varsity
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 398
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #22 on: May 02, 2017, 03:36:45 pm »

Also found this interesting info:

Eligible for Maiden - Sonneteer.   

Eligible for A1X - Irap, State of Honor, Patch, Untrapped.   

Eligible for A2X - J Boys Echo, Hence, Battle of Midway and Lookin at Lee. 

Eligible for A3X - Girvin, Always Dreaming, Practical Joke, Tapwrit, Fast N Accurate

Successfully passed all those conditions - Classic Empire, Gormley, Irish War Cry, Thunder Snow, Gunnevera, Mccraken

Logged

showhimthewhip

  • Varsity
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 398
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #23 on: May 02, 2017, 03:38:01 pm »

And lastly, the horses with their best wins:

Gr. 1 winners
Always Dreaming, Practical Joke, Classic Empire, Gormley, Thunder Snow

Gr. 2 winners
Irap, Girvin, Tapwrit, Irish War Cry, Gunnevera, McCraken

Gr. 3 winners
J Boys Echo, Hence, Fast and Accurate

Ungraded Stakes winner
Lookin at Lee

AOC winner
Battle of Midway

Maiden Special Weight winners
State of Honor, Patch, Untrapped

Maiden
Sonneteer
Logged

showhimthewhip

  • Varsity
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 398
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #24 on: May 02, 2017, 03:44:22 pm »

Also found this interesting info:

Eligible for Maiden - Sonneteer.   

Eligible for A1X - Irap, State of Honor, Patch, Untrapped.   

Eligible for A2X - J Boys Echo, Hence, Battle of Midway and Lookin at Lee. 

Eligible for A3X - Girvin, Always Dreaming, Practical Joke, Tapwrit, Fast N Accurate

Successfully passed all those conditions - Classic Empire, Gormley, Irish War Cry, Thunder Snow, Gunnevera, Mccraken

Giacomo is the only horse to win the derby in the last 30-40 years that was eligible for A1X.  Even Mine That Bird had already won 4 races (including a graded stakes at 2). Super Saver was eligible for A2X but did win the Ky Jockey Club Stakes over the surface as a 2YO.
Logged

HogFanInBryant

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 3,231
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #25 on: May 02, 2017, 09:10:09 pm »

I have watched the Sunland Park Derby now about 10 times.  I am starting to really get on the Hence bandwagon, but feel like as soon as I do I am flushing a bet down the toilet due to him being a flash in the pan.  Somebody talk me off this ledge and please hurry...I am getting Hence fever!
Logged

HogFanInBryant

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 3,231
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #26 on: May 02, 2017, 09:13:45 pm »

Giacomo is the only horse to win the derby in the last 30-40 years that was eligible for A1X.  Even Mine That Bird had already won 4 races (including a graded stakes at 2). Super Saver was eligible for A2X but did win the Ky Jockey Club Stakes over the surface as a 2YO.

True story...a guy I went to school with back in the day played a $150 show ticket on Giacomo when he won the KD...not a penny on anything else, just a show ticket because he felt like he would come flying and get part of it!  That $150 cashed in for just under $1500 by the way.  I still remember telling him how dumb he was before the race!  Not as dumb as you would think huh?  Racing luck?
Logged

The Hogfather

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 27,547
  • I love lamp...
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #27 on: May 03, 2017, 09:30:26 am »

I have watched the Sunland Park Derby now about 10 times.  I am starting to really get on the Hence bandwagon, but feel like as soon as I do I am flushing a bet down the toilet due to him being a flash in the pan.  Somebody talk me off this ledge and please hurry...I am getting Hence fever!

I have it, too.  Conquest Mo Money was a horse I was really high on coming out of the AD and Hence trounced him in the Sunland Derby, although he was aided by insane fractions up front.
Logged

kingoftherapids

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4,031
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #28 on: May 03, 2017, 09:37:44 am »

right now im a hence, IWC, cracken fan
Logged

porkinsons disease

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1,417
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #29 on: May 03, 2017, 10:36:55 am »

I have watched the Sunland Park Derby now about 10 times.  I am starting to really get on the Hence bandwagon, but feel like as soon as I do I am flushing a bet down the toilet due to him being a flash in the pan.  Somebody talk me off this ledge and please hurry...I am getting Hence fever!
I like him too and will play him a lot underneath. As you said, may be the "wise guy" horse this year
Logged

The Hogfather

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 27,547
  • I love lamp...
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #30 on: May 03, 2017, 12:43:13 pm »

I have to say, I also really like the draw for Lookin at Lee, with his deep closing style.  I think the 1 hole is actually good for him and if they go fast up front, he should be closing pretty strongly.  He just seems to always get too far back.  That will probably keep him from winning, but I think he'll be closing late.
Logged

Iwastherein1969

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 17,847
  • Big knock, baby, BIG KNOCK !
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #31 on: May 03, 2017, 01:20:23 pm »

J. Boy's Echo.....back to my original pick since Conquest Mo Money is being pointed toward the Preakness...anyway, I see J. Boy's Echo coming over the top of this year's average group of 3 year olds and catching the front runner around the 1/16th pole and struggling home to win by a neck. Oh, the move will be a grinding move and it won't take your breath away and he will hang a touch, but, JEB will have just enough to stagger to the finish line ahead of the others.

Conquest Mo Money reminds me so much of Summing (1981 Belmont Winner) that it's not even funny. They both even look alike. CMM, will be well meant at about 9-1 in the Preakness and will get every bit of disposable income I can muster on his big dark brown nose.  I hate to talk about the Preakness when we haven't even run the KY DERBY yet but here goes. I'm going to show you the 1981 Belmont to show you how I think CMM will run in the Preakness. Take a look and see if you agree...      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oU6mV_xZgMQ
Logged

Iwastherein1969

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 17,847
  • Big knock, baby, BIG KNOCK !
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #32 on: May 03, 2017, 01:31:00 pm »

Continuing on with my film lecture, I just put J. Echo's Boy in the spot of the 1991 KY DERBY winner (Strike The Gold) and you have a carbon copy of what JEB is going to do in this year's Run for the Roses....like I said earlier, he'll come over the top and grind them down...take a look at how JEB is going to put up 35.80 on the win ticket....here is how he's going to do it...      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQz5GRG5w0c
Logged

mckinneyhog5

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 7,664
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #33 on: May 03, 2017, 04:15:17 pm »

Girvin is out for me because of a quarter crack they've been trying to get fixed before the Derby. Hate it because I'm a big Mike Smith fan and adding him would have pushed me over the top..also like Joe Sharp but I can't lay money on a horse with issues this close to the derby.
Logged

mckinneyhog5

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 7,664
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #34 on: May 03, 2017, 04:33:11 pm »

I have watched the Sunland Park Derby now about 10 times.  I am starting to really get on the Hence bandwagon, but feel like as soon as I do I am flushing a bet down the toilet due to him being a flash in the pan.  Somebody talk me off this ledge and please hurry...I am getting Hence fever!
Biggest thing with Hence is a possibility of a bounce...no 100 back speed figs and set a new high last out. Can he repeat the last or better yet improve? Now these are 3 y.o.s and are always capable of improving from race to race but consistent they are not.
Logged

hogoffate

  • Varsity
  • ****
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 416
  • Hogville.net
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #35 on: May 04, 2017, 01:57:09 pm »

Granted it was in January; but I still remember Hence ducking in almost losing his maiden race. His recovery and acceleration was impressive to come back and win; but stakes are higher, more crowd and louder crowd noise.... that would be a concern of mine.

My 3 (until I change my mind again which I'm sure I will depending on tote board):
Classic Empire
Irish War Cry
Practical Joke

good luck to all
Logged

The Hogfather

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 27,547
  • I love lamp...
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #36 on: May 04, 2017, 02:07:18 pm »

Granted it was in January; but I still remember Hence ducking in almost losing his maiden race. His recovery and acceleration was impressive to come back and win; but stakes are higher, more crowd and louder crowd noise.... that would be a concern of mine.

My 3 (until I change my mind again which I'm sure I will depending on tote board):
Classic Empire
Irish War Cry
Practical Joke

good luck to all

Have you watched the Sunland Derby?  Just curious.
Logged

The Hogfather

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 27,547
  • I love lamp...
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #37 on: May 04, 2017, 02:24:52 pm »

Logged

hogoffate

  • Varsity
  • ****
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 416
  • Hogville.net
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #38 on: May 04, 2017, 06:35:25 pm »

He was impressive but are you saying the crowd and noise at Sunland in March are the same as Churchill on the first Saturday in May? Also, how do you explain his Southwest Stakes?

If the price is right, at least 14-1, I could see me betting him to hit the board for sure.  This is one of the better "betting" Derbies for sure.
Logged

Iwastherein1969

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 17,847
  • Big knock, baby, BIG KNOCK !
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #39 on: May 04, 2017, 07:35:04 pm »


He's #9.
CMM ran at least 50 yards further than the winner in the Sunland Derby....CMM is a lock to run in the top pair in the Preakness....but on to more pressing issues like the Ky Derby....JBE looks to be a one dimensional horse...he will make a nice move for about 3/8ths of a mile and then has no other gear...one might think, "well JEB has no shot"...au contraire, not this season when not a single 3yr old is a stand out...this year I'm looking for a horse who I think can get the 10 furlongs and JEB, if he moves late could very well be the one who grinds the distance out. This is a terrible year for 3yr olds and I'm going with a horse (J. Echo's Boy) who I think can at least finish up the distance and will pay handsomely. JEB is my guy, mainly because the dark bay or brown son of Uncle Mo (Conquest Mo Money) has other plans to run until two weeks from May 6th. Then comes baby, momma and even daddy gets new shoes.
Logged

ghostzapper

  • Hogvillian
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2,067
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #40 on: May 04, 2017, 09:20:36 pm »

right now im a hence, IWC, cracken fan

This is me
Logged

ghostzapper

  • Hogvillian
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2,067
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #41 on: May 04, 2017, 09:53:59 pm »

He was impressive but are you saying the crowd and noise at Sunland in March are the same as Churchill on the first Saturday in May? Also, how do you explain his Southwest Stakes?

If the price is right, at least 14-1, I could see me betting him to hit the board for sure.  This is one of the better "betting" Derbies for sure.

His Southwwest Stakes was faster than his maiden win.   Third race off the form cycle he exploded to win the Sunland Derby.  If he's 15-1 at post tiime, he gets my money, especiially with a win on an off track.
Logged

userpick

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4,262
  • Welcome to Bluffington.
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #42 on: May 04, 2017, 11:35:20 pm »

His Southwwest Stakes was faster than his maiden win.   Third race off the form cycle he exploded to win the Sunland Derby.  If he's 15-1 at post tiime, he gets my money, especiially with a win on an off track.

He will have to make a major, major jump to have a chance to win it.
Logged

cbhawg03

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 3,598
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #43 on: May 05, 2017, 12:41:22 am »

He will have to make a major, major jump to have a chance to win it.

You just wanting to go down that BSF rabbit hole now ain't ya?
Logged

ghostzapper

  • Hogvillian
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2,067
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #44 on: May 05, 2017, 07:21:19 am »

What is a major jump?  97 Beyer may win this.  Even if you project something higher, he's in range.  His best is 2 lengths less than the best that any other horse in the field has ever run, and he beat 2 horses that came back and won or nearly won prestigious Derby preps.  He's improving each out and is working well so it isn't unreasonable to think he makes the requisite move forward. 
Logged

ghostzapper

  • Hogvillian
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2,067
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #45 on: May 05, 2017, 07:57:31 am »

The articles being written about Derby suggest that 15-1 is a pipedream on Hence.  If so, I'll focus on pick 4s and 5.
Logged

riccoar

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 14,869
  • Serving Hogville since 11-08-03
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #46 on: May 05, 2017, 08:19:54 am »

Weather says seasonably cool for that day and rain early.  Rain should not be falling around post time.  Do these tracks drain fairly quickly or if the track runs wet for most of the day, what could that mean? 
Logged

ghostzapper

  • Hogvillian
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2,067
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #47 on: May 05, 2017, 08:59:19 am »

CD dries fast but it is going to rain there all day today, so drying process may be slowed.
Logged

The Hogfather

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 27,547
  • I love lamp...
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #48 on: May 05, 2017, 09:23:38 am »

The articles being written about Derby suggest that 15-1 is a pipedream on Hence.  If so, I'll focus on pick 4s and 5.

Unfortunately, I agree.  He seems to be the "under-the-radar" horse that has now been located on radar.  Probably will be 6-1 at post time.
Logged

userpick

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4,262
  • Welcome to Bluffington.
Re: Kentucky Derby top 3 as of right now?
« Reply #49 on: May 05, 2017, 10:01:05 am »

What is a major jump?  97 Beyer may win this.  Even if you project something higher, he's in range.  His best is 2 lengths less than the best that any other horse in the field has ever run, and he beat 2 horses that came back and won or nearly won prestigious Derby preps.  He's improving each out and is working well so it isn't unreasonable to think he makes the requisite move forward. 

Again, I haven't seen his beyer figures or what anyone else has ran. But every other figure I have seen has him several points slower than the main contenders. Is he a complete toss out? Of course not, but he's currently not in my top 8 on win contenders. The main issue for me is he has already developed a whole lot as a 3 year old. And according to the figures I use he's still got a jump to make. Not impossible, but improbable as far my opinion goes. Which doesn't mean a whole lot lol.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2   Go Up
 

KARK
KWNA
Fox 16 Arkansas