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Author Topic: So close...  (Read 2477 times)

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Rock City Razorback

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So close...
« on: April 27, 2017, 05:35:35 pm »

It's agitating to know just how close we were to getting both Garrett Boles and Solomon Thomas, and now both are first rounders... Imagine how different the line would have been last year will GB. And even though we had some good D Ends, defense would have been better with ST the last few years. Also, if you're needed a QB and in the 1st Round, how could you not take Watson over Trubisky?? The Draft is always fun to follow, just wish we had some guys in the first night.
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JIHawg

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Re: So close...
« Reply #1 on: April 27, 2017, 09:13:28 pm »

Agree.  We thought we had both of those guys at one time.
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bennyl08

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Re: So close...
« Reply #2 on: April 27, 2017, 10:24:05 pm »

It's agitating to know just how close we were to getting both Garrett Boles and Solomon Thomas, and now both are first rounders... Imagine how different the line would have been last year will GB. And even though we had some good D Ends, defense would have been better with ST the last few years. Also, if you're needed a QB and in the 1st Round, how could you not take Watson over Trubisky?? The Draft is always fun to follow, just wish we had some guys in the first night.

Watson doesn't have the arm strength of Trubisky and Trubisky was able to take care of the ball despite being one of the few good players on his offense. Watson threw 17 int's last season despite having a Bama-esque talent advantage over every other team he played (30 interceptions over the past 2 years). How well will he be able to take care of the ball when he isn't surrounded by offensive talent that is vastly superior to virtually every other team he'll play?
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The Hawg Marshal

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Re: So close...
« Reply #3 on: April 28, 2017, 10:39:49 am »

It would have made more sense for the Texans to have moved up and taken Trubisky. They are a loaded team that just needs a QB to be scary good. I don't think Watson is that QB.
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311Hog

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Re: So close...
« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2017, 11:08:15 am »

It would have made more sense for the Texans to have moved up and taken Trubisky. They are a loaded team that just needs a QB to be scary good. I don't think Watson is that QB.

and i dont think Trubisky is that good.  He seems like just another average back up QB.  Watson just seems like he might have the drive and inner fire to be something more.

But we both could be wrong lol.  Who knows Trubisky is going to sit, and i bet Watson starts day one for a "good" team so i guess hoping for Dak in a bottle twice in a row.  (im not a texans fan at all just think their choice was better).
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The Hawg Marshal

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Re: So close...
« Reply #5 on: April 28, 2017, 11:19:42 am »

We will find out if either one of us is right. Watson is definitely in a better situation. The Bears are almost on Cleveland's level. lol
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311Hog

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Re: So close...
« Reply #6 on: April 28, 2017, 11:33:08 am »

We will find out if either one of us is right. Watson is definitely in a better situation. The Bears are almost on Cleveland's level. lol

yeah throwing in the windy city is a far cry from Tar heel country.
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sickboy

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Re: So close...
« Reply #7 on: April 28, 2017, 12:00:59 pm »

I think Bielema is pretty dang good at evaluating talent. That's one thing I'll never worry about with him. I also feel like he's pretty good at developing the talent he gets and making them better. So, when time comes that we do get some of these guys like Boles and Thomas to slide our way, I think you could see Arkansas football shifting gears very quickly. It's just a matter of getting these guys to come. Which is hard for any coach. But Bielema seems closer than any coach I can remember.
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Dominicanhog

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Re: So close...
« Reply #8 on: April 28, 2017, 12:25:40 pm »

I think Bielema is pretty dang good at evaluating talent. That's one thing I'll never worry about with him. I also feel like he's pretty good at developing the talent he gets and making them better. So, when time comes that we do get some of these guys like Boles and Thomas to slide our way, I think you could see Arkansas football shifting gears very quickly. It's just a matter of getting these guys to come. Which is hard for any coach. But Bielema seems closer than any coach I can remember.

Could be a lot of those types on campus this week-end....
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navyhog24

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Re: So close...
« Reply #9 on: April 28, 2017, 12:29:10 pm »

Could be a lot of those types on campus this week-end....

Not with the weather the way it's looking. I can see it detouring a lot would be travelers this weekend.
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sickboy

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Re: So close...
« Reply #10 on: April 29, 2017, 02:00:10 pm »

Eleumunor was close to signing with us as well and he just got drafted. I believe he was committed to us before he switched last minute to A&M. If we had Solomon Thomas, Garett Boles and Eluemunor. Imagine that. Would have been a heck of year with Wise, Sprinkle, Skipper and possibly Hatcher and Morgan to the NFL.
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HognitiveDissonance

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Re: So close...
« Reply #11 on: April 29, 2017, 03:29:26 pm »

Yea, I noticed Garrett Bolles drafted #20 and I thought 'that name sounds familiar'. Guess it was.
I definitely remember Solomon Thomas.

About the NFL Draft in general...it's very clear to me why some franchises struggle a lot and some excel continuously, like the Patriots. Teams continually mortgage their future on unproven QBs, just like Chicago did this year. Bad move, I think. Teams continuously pick the wrong players. Even with the Cowboys, Jerry Jones has proven beyond doubt that he is a terrible GM. It's only his son Stephen talking him out of foolhardy ideas that the Cowboys are coming back. Like a few years ago, Jerry wanted to draft Manziel and Stephen talked him off the ledge into a more sensible OT pick. Now, the 'Boys have the best O-line in football. Jerry, awesome business man, not a great football man.
The point is, the league is full of guys like Jerry, and not so many true evaluators of talent and people who can smartly run a football organization like New England. Yea, I know the Pats bend the rules to their fullest extent, but that's not the main reason for their success; they're just smart.
Another example of ignorance in the NFL, which I've commented on before. How many New England assistants have been hired as head coaches? Weis, Crennel, McDaniels, Mangini, etc. Teams are just so dumb. No...those aren't the guys you want. The guy you want is Belichick; he's the mastermind. Those other guys are just...assistants. But that's part of stupidity; teams see those guys and say 'hey, they have been a part of that Patriot success, so if we hire them, we can have it too'. No, that's not how it works. The head coach is THE GUY, the assistants are just window dressing much of the time.
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onebadrubi

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Re: So close...
« Reply #12 on: April 29, 2017, 05:13:18 pm »

Watson doesn't have the arm strength of Trubisky and Trubisky was able to take care of the ball despite being one of the few good players on his offense. Watson threw 17 int's last season despite having a Bama-esque talent advantage over every other team he played (30 interceptions over the past 2 years). How well will he be able to take care of the ball when he isn't surrounded by offensive talent that is vastly superior to virtually every other team he'll play?

Trubisky should not be in the same sentence when debating someone else's arm strength.  He's lacking for sure.
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sickboy

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Re: So close...
« Reply #13 on: April 29, 2017, 06:16:10 pm »

Yea, I noticed Garrett Bolles drafted #20 and I thought 'that name sounds familiar'. Guess it was.
I definitely remember Solomon Thomas.

About the NFL Draft in general...it's very clear to me why some franchises struggle a lot and some excel continuously, like the Patriots. Teams continually mortgage their future on unproven QBs, just like Chicago did this year. Bad move, I think. Teams continuously pick the wrong players. Even with the Cowboys, Jerry Jones has proven beyond doubt that he is a terrible GM. It's only his son Stephen talking him out of foolhardy ideas that the Cowboys are coming back. Like a few years ago, Jerry wanted to draft Manziel and Stephen talked him off the ledge into a more sensible OT pick. Now, the 'Boys have the best O-line in football. Jerry, awesome business man, not a great football man.
The point is, the league is full of guys like Jerry, and not so many true evaluators of talent and people who can smartly run a football organization like New England. Yea, I know the Pats bend the rules to their fullest extent, but that's not the main reason for their success; they're just smart.
Another example of ignorance in the NFL, which I've commented on before. How many New England assistants have been hired as head coaches? Weis, Crennel, McDaniels, Mangini, etc. Teams are just so dumb. No...those aren't the guys you want. The guy you want is Belichick; he's the mastermind. Those other guys are just...assistants. But that's part of stupidity; teams see those guys and say 'hey, they have been a part of that Patriot success, so if we hire them, we can have it too'. No, that's not how it works. The head coach is THE GUY, the assistants are just window dressing much of the time.

yeah. there's no doubt that mortgaging your future on a top 10 QB is generally a bad move. The problem is... a few of those guys turn into Hall of Famers and teams, usually bad ones constantly in need of a franchise face (browns, browns, browns), are always in the top of the draft every year thinking they're going to strike it rich.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the smarter draft methodology is quantity over quality. That's why the Pats constantly win. They are always trading back and getting more picks. The more guys you can get for cheap later in the draft, the more likely you're going to find diamonds. And if you have a system as good at developing players as the Pats do, you're going to look smart. And the ones who don't pan out, they don't cost you nearly as much as that top ten dazzle guy who fizzles out.

The Titans have started to do this in the last few years. They fleeced the Rams for Jared Goff and have started to build a solid team through more draft picks.

It's pretty simple in theory. It's just that GMs have a lot of pressure and it's hard to pass up those big buzzy names in the first round.
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bennyl08

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Re: So close...
« Reply #14 on: April 30, 2017, 12:41:22 am »

Trubisky should not be in the same sentence when debating someone else's arm strength.  He's lacking for sure.

Ball velocity (in a drill specifically asking qb's to throw as hard as they can, i.e. it wasn't like one of them was trying to put touch on the ball)

Mahomes: 60mph
Webb: 59 mph
Kizer: 56 mph
Trubisky/Evans: 55 mph
Peterman/Kaaya: 53 mph
Watson: 49 mph

Mallett threw the ball 65mph in a sports science segment and 58mph at the combine

http://www.dawgsbynature.com/2017/3/10/14890754/cleveland-browns-2017-nfl-scouting-combine-qb-velocity

Also, in the link below, and I have no idea if this belongs to the author or not, but a fascinating google drive table for all the qb's since 2008 in the draft process. Includes film grade, age, hand size, ball velocity, 20 yard shuttle, ht/wt, character concerns, and medical history.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_-SienfT3umX0HKxRyQqyXM9BqHrotdcQA6W-V_pDiY/htmlview?usp=drive_web&usp=sheets_home&ths=true&sle=true#

There, you can see Watson's 49 mph is really bad. Trubisky's 55 puts him right around average by NFL combine standards which is well above average by college standards.
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theFlyingHog

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Re: So close...
« Reply #15 on: April 30, 2017, 08:17:57 am »

Ball velocity (in a drill specifically asking qb's to throw as hard as they can, i.e. it wasn't like one of them was trying to put touch on the ball)

Mahomes: 60mph
Webb: 59 mph
Kizer: 56 mph
Trubisky/Evans: 55 mph
Peterman/Kaaya: 53 mph
Watson: 49 mph

Mallett threw the ball 65mph in a sports science segment and 58mph at the combine

http://www.dawgsbynature.com/2017/3/10/14890754/cleveland-browns-2017-nfl-scouting-combine-qb-velocity

Also, in the link below, and I have no idea if this belongs to the author or not, but a fascinating google drive table for all the qb's since 2008 in the draft process. Includes film grade, age, hand size, ball velocity, 20 yard shuttle, ht/wt, character concerns, and medical history.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_-SienfT3umX0HKxRyQqyXM9BqHrotdcQA6W-V_pDiY/htmlview?usp=drive_web&usp=sheets_home&ths=true&sle=true#

There, you can see Watson's 49 mph is really bad. Trubisky's 55 puts him right around average by NFL combine standards which is well above average by college standards.
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longpig

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Re: So close...
« Reply #16 on: April 30, 2017, 11:10:35 am »

It would have made more sense for the Texans to have moved up and taken Trubisky. They are a loaded team that just needs a QB to be scary good. I don't think Watson is that QB.

Best thing any QB at Houston can do for his career is get away from Houston. 

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longpig

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Re: So close...
« Reply #17 on: April 30, 2017, 11:19:14 am »

It's agitating to know just how close we were to getting both Garrett Boles and Solomon Thomas, and now both are first rounders... Imagine how different the line would have been last year will GB. And even though we had some good D Ends, defense would have been better with ST the last few years. Also, if you're needed a QB and in the 1st Round, how could you not take Watson over Trubisky?? The Draft is always fun to follow, just wish we had some guys in the first night.
Thomas appeared to only be showing interest in coming to Arkansas to appease family and friends. 
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: So close...
« Reply #18 on: April 30, 2017, 07:46:49 pm »

Yes, no doubt on several of these kids we were either really and truly close or at least we were led to believe we were. In any event, it didn't happen. Sucks because I honestly believe that more than once were just a key player or two away from likely breaking through in a big way. However, as we know that's done and it doesn't matter now. What DOES is trying to finally close the deal on some of the more highly rated recruits we're pursuing now and in the future.
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onebadrubi

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Re: So close...
« Reply #19 on: May 01, 2017, 10:36:56 am »

Ball velocity (in a drill specifically asking qb's to throw as hard as they can, i.e. it wasn't like one of them was trying to put touch on the ball)

Mahomes: 60mph
Webb: 59 mph
Kizer: 56 mph
Trubisky/Evans: 55 mph
Peterman/Kaaya: 53 mph
Watson: 49 mph

Mallett threw the ball 65mph in a sports science segment and 58mph at the combine

http://www.dawgsbynature.com/2017/3/10/14890754/cleveland-browns-2017-nfl-scouting-combine-qb-velocity

Also, in the link below, and I have no idea if this belongs to the author or not, but a fascinating google drive table for all the qb's since 2008 in the draft process. Includes film grade, age, hand size, ball velocity, 20 yard shuttle, ht/wt, character concerns, and medical history.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_-SienfT3umX0HKxRyQqyXM9BqHrotdcQA6W-V_pDiY/htmlview?usp=drive_web&usp=sheets_home&ths=true&sle=true#

There, you can see Watson's 49 mph is really bad. Trubisky's 55 puts him right around average by NFL combine standards which is well above average by college standards.

Ball velocity is not everything.  Watch his throws, the float, they are weak, and wobble.  Watson has as strong or stronger of an arm just watching them throw a deep ball.

Just because you can throw a baseball 100mph does not mean you can one hop the catcher from center field on a deep fly ball.
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bennyl08

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Re: So close...
« Reply #20 on: May 02, 2017, 03:19:53 pm »

Ball velocity is not everything.  Watch his throws, the float, they are weak, and wobble.  Watson has as strong or stronger of an arm just watching them throw a deep ball.

Just because you can throw a baseball 100mph does not mean you can one hop the catcher from center field on a deep fly ball.

A qb's velocity on his throws is somewhat equivalent to a rb running the 40 yard dash. As it relates to the overall success of the player? Not a great measure. There's a lot more to being a rb than just being fast and there's a lot more to being a qb than having a strong arm.

However, it does serve as a baseline. Under ideal conditions, this is as good as this player will get barring some major changes which at this point, it's too late to be making any major changes to their throwing motion and they've already had 4 years of extensive weight room training. Typically, you'll see a qb add 10 pounds or so for the NFL to absorb hits, but it doesn't help their arm strength. So, for these qb's, under the most ideal of circumstances, Watson is only going to be able to throw 49mph. Trubisky 55mph. Thus, under ideal conditions, Trubisky's pass will travel 2.5 more meters (approximately the same as yards) each second. Now, maybe Watson uses better technique when in the pocket and can get closer to 49 mph on most of his throws while Trubisky uses poorer mechanics and doesn't get as close to 55. However, that's what coaching and experience can do. I.e. Look at BA in 2013 vs 2015. His arm strength didn't change. What changed was his footwork and being able to utilize more of his arm strength under less than ideal situations as well as knowing how to audible and move in the pocket to keep himself in as ideal a situation as possible. If Watson is already maximizing his technique, then he doesn't have much room for improvement. Trubisky has only one year of starting experience above the HS level and he was already putting up better numbers than Watson and he has a lot of room for improvement while Watson actually regressed his last year. Will Trubisky grow to his ceiling? That's what makes him so risky. Trubisky at his best will be better than Watson at his best. Can't really debate that. Watson, you know what you are going to get and his floor is higher than Trubisky's. So it becomes a question of, do you take the tall, fast, strong receiver who is sloppy in the route running hoping you can correct that or do you take the short, slow, and weak receiver who ran good routes against college players? Add in that the first receiver had very few drops and was still quite productive while the second receiver had more yards than the first but also had a lot more drops than you typically want?
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