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Author Topic: I must change my pick for...  (Read 593 times)

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Iwastherein1969

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I must change my pick for...
« on: April 15, 2017, 10:18:05 pm »

the Kentucky Derby...he ran today with as much heart and desire as I've seen in quite some time...my KY DERBY pick had EVERYTHING go against him in the ARK Derby and he still ran his absolute shoes off....yes I know there is a thread for the KY DERBY picks, but I don't want my change to go unnoticed buried in another thread....the son of Uncle Mo....CONQUEST MO MONEY is your KY DERBY winner...yes, the Ky Derby is another 1/8th of a mile but I think Conquest Mo Money can sit just off a fairly slow pace, make his move on the middle of the Churchill Downs turn, put some distance between himself and the closers and hang on in the Derby...and yes, it will pay handsomely
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mckinneyhog5

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #1 on: April 15, 2017, 10:28:18 pm »

the Kentucky Derby...he ran today with as much heart and desire as I've seen in quite some time...my KY DERBY pick had EVERYTHING go against him in the ARK Derby and he still ran his absolute shoes off....yes I know there is a thread for the KY DERBY picks, but I don't want my change to go unnoticed buried in another thread....the son of Uncle Mo....CONQUEST MO MONEY is your KY DERBY winner...yes, the Ky Derby is another 1/8th of a mile but I think Conquest Mo Money can sit just off a fairly slow pace, make his move on the middle of the Churchill Downs turn, put some distance between himself and the closers and hang on in the Derby...and yes, it will pay handsomely
I thought before the race that the KD winner would come out of this race. I still beleive that after the race. Funny enough My first pick was Girvin which I think you also picked and now found myself maybe agreeing again with you.
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userpick

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #2 on: April 15, 2017, 11:34:00 pm »

He ran huge today. At the moment he's not in the derby unless his owners pay the late $200,000 fee to nominate. I don't really love anything out of Arkansas in terms of the Kentucky Derby, but right now, I think ANY horse can win it.
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Iwastherein1969

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #3 on: April 16, 2017, 12:37:27 am »

He ran huge today. At the moment he's not in the derby unless his owners pay the late $200,000 fee to nominate. I don't really love anything out of Arkansas in terms of the Kentucky Derby, but right now, I think ANY horse can win it.
if his owner's have any sense, they'll take the 200k they won today for running 2nd in the ARK DERBY and invest it in the Big Kahuna of all horse races...I mean, like how many times does one get a horse like this one and have the money/points/whatever they use as criteria to get in the KY DERBY ? I say roll the bones, but then again, its not my 200k to lose.
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userpick

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #4 on: April 16, 2017, 12:52:09 am »

if his owner's have any sense, they'll take the 200k they won today for running 2nd in the ARK DERBY and invest it in the Big Kahuna of all horse races...I mean, like how many times does one get a horse like this one and have the money/points/whatever they use as criteria to get in the KY DERBY ? I say roll the bones, but then again, its not my 200k to lose.

Agree 100% and I would bet that's what they do.
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husker71

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #5 on: April 16, 2017, 03:43:15 pm »

give the horse a day or two to see how it comes out of the race.  Any of you guys knows these owners??
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kingoftherapids

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #6 on: April 16, 2017, 05:38:19 pm »

They said before the race that if they can get in they will pay 200k
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Iwastherein1969

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #7 on: April 16, 2017, 05:47:05 pm »

They said before the race that if they can get in they will pay 200k
surely this gets them in after yesterday...I haven't looked at the format since it changes from year to year...is it Graded points? Graded money ?  on a slide scale with G1, G2 and G3 counting as percentages  ?  I guess I should look it up but I just don't want to....if he runs, and he seems sound, I'm going to bet the doo-doo out of this gutsy bastard...in a year lacking great horses, grit and guts will go a long way toward that finish line on the first Saturday in May
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ghostzapper

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #8 on: April 16, 2017, 05:52:08 pm »

I may book that bet.  Wood winner runs exactly the same way and a lot faster.
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ghostzapper

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #9 on: April 16, 2017, 06:00:34 pm »

Having said that, this year is wide open because this group is as bad as we have ever had.
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userpick

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #10 on: April 16, 2017, 06:14:55 pm »

I may book that bet.  Wood winner runs exactly the same way and a lot faster.

I wouldn't say a LOT faster....
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ghostzapper

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #11 on: April 16, 2017, 08:16:36 pm »

4-5 lengths faster.  What is a lot? 
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userpick

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #12 on: April 16, 2017, 08:38:00 pm »

4-5 lengths faster.  What is a lot? 

We have no idea if he's 4-5 lengths faster.
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ghostzapper

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #13 on: April 16, 2017, 09:25:35 pm »

On their best races?  Yes we do.
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userpick

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #14 on: April 16, 2017, 09:32:33 pm »

On their best races?  Yes we do.

If every horse ran their best race every time, we wouldn't ever have to handicap. I'm not a Beyer speed figure guy at all, so I don't know what they ran, but I will go ahead and say Conquest Mo Money outran his figure on Saturday. This is not to say I don't like Irish War Cry, because I do. But I wouldn't watch those races and say he's 5 lengths better.
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mckinneyhog5

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #15 on: April 16, 2017, 11:23:35 pm »

I'm not getting lured into any Wood winners side until they actually do something in the KD. About the only horse recently that turned out decent was Frosted and he still didn't win the Derby..
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cbhawg03

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #16 on: April 16, 2017, 11:35:33 pm »

On their best races?  Yes we do.

Those BSF tell you that he runs so much faster?  Cause he gets them from tracks that continuously get overinflated figures, GP for sure, or cause he ran on a track that was speed favoring?  Or how about running at a track that also produced a 114 or 120 something figure, iirc, on Wood Memorial Day when we all know Arrogate would trash him by 20 lengths?

Look at OP, I can recall only a handful of horses that ever got a figure that was a good figure, all horses that the media and beyer boys liked, Smarty Jones, Azeri, Zenyatta, Bode, AP and Whitmore.  But horses from SA and GP especially always get high figures.
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cbhawg03

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #17 on: April 16, 2017, 11:48:19 pm »

GP getting high figures, Wood run on speed favoring track, crawl home in SA Derby, Hence trounced at OP then wins at Sunland and horse he beat at Sunland runs 2nd in AR Derby and you want to argue that one horse is 4-5 lengths better than another horse?  That's just insane.  And those GP figures so good that none of them run good elsewhere?  Exceptions are who?  Those that just prepped at GP.

Sounding like that guy on Twitter that had Petrov as one of his top 4 horses for KY Derby.  Craziness at ta finest.  When a horse always losing ground the last 1/16th, he is never going to get 9 furlongs, much less 10. 

Thinking one horse is 4-5 better than another this year is crazy.  I'm against that Conquest horse completely but thinking one is way better this year....
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showhimthewhip

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #18 on: April 17, 2017, 02:29:00 pm »

I have gone back to watch the race several times and this horse stands out. He put away some horses that were well-thought-of and almost held off a horse that will be the favorite come Derby day. Pedigree suggests he can go the distance. I like his running style compared to derby winners as of late. The Sunland Derby tells me that he can sit off the pace if he needs to.

The story is intriguing as well. I will watch closely to see 1. If he gets in and 2. How he trains up. But he's worth a serious look.
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showhimthewhip

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #19 on: April 17, 2017, 02:35:12 pm »

The fact that they have the ability to pay the 200k or not COULD represent their thoughts on how well he came out of the AR derby. If they're true horsemen.

OR it could represent a camp that's never had any spot light and their one shot at a derby horse...
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cbhawg03

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #20 on: April 17, 2017, 05:35:57 pm »

They nominated to Sunland Derby when all they had to do was nominate to Triple Crown and would be automatically nominated to Sunland Derby.  Missed the boat big time on that one.
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showhimthewhip

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #21 on: April 17, 2017, 07:05:01 pm »

CB do you think the Sunland was their end goal?

I didn't know the Sunland was automatic.
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ghostzapper

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #22 on: April 17, 2017, 08:40:28 pm »

If every horse ran their best race every time, we wouldn't ever have to handicap. I'm not a Beyer speed figure guy at all, so I don't know what they ran, but I will go ahead and say Conquest Mo Money outran his figure on Saturday. This is not to say I don't like Irish War Cry, because I do. But I wouldn't watch those races and say he's 5 lengths better.

I would never claim that a horse will run his best race every time, and I certainly don't bet that way.  But, we know how fast these horses have run in a manner that allows us to fairly compare them, and Irish War Cry has run four or five lengths faster on his best races.  Will he do that on Derby day? I don't know but he's not going to be my pick to win it. 

When you say Conquest Mo Money "outran" his fig, what do you mean? For me, it would mean he had trouble or ran an overland route that would suggest he would run faster without the trip or trouble.  You could argue, as IWas does that he was still running after a fairly hot pace, and those are great bet back horses (see, e.g., Silver Charm).  But, in looking at the two turn races that day, that was not a relatively fast pace, and they came home slow, so I'm not as inclined to see a continued move forward.  But, they are three year olds who can improve dramatically from race to race,  so who knows?  If, however, you want to believe CMM's Beyer figure isn't an accurate measure of how fast he went around the track, I disagree with you.
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ghostzapper

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #23 on: April 17, 2017, 08:44:16 pm »

GP getting high figures, Wood run on speed favoring track, crawl home in SA Derby, Hence trounced at OP then wins at Sunland and horse he beat at Sunland runs 2nd in AR Derby and you want to argue that one horse is 4-5 lengths better than another horse?  That's just insane.  And those GP figures so good that none of them run good elsewhere?  Exceptions are who?  Those that just prepped at GP.

Sounding like that guy on Twitter that had Petrov as one of his top 4 horses for KY Derby.  Craziness at ta finest.  When a horse always losing ground the last 1/16th, he is never going to get 9 furlongs, much less 10. 

Thinking one horse is 4-5 better than another this year is crazy.  I'm against that Conquest horse completely but thinking one is way better this year....

Read my assertion:  if they run their best races to date, one is five lengths faster than the other. That's not insane, that's math and physics.   I am not saying that is what will happen on Derby Day or that CMM can't improve.  And, by the way, you think Arrogate got an inflated number?

I know Wood Day at Aqu started as a speed favoring race track but it lost that quality by the time the Wood was run.  Only wire to wire winner from 5th race on was a capable front ender who wouldn't have won if he and second place finisher hadn't blocked Pletcher's closer.
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ghostzapper

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #24 on: April 17, 2017, 09:03:24 pm »

I will take back my offer to book and make the case for CMM.  He does not have to have the lead to win.  He is on a progressive fig improvement that, if continued could project to a 97-100 fig in the Derby, and that could win it.  He did run a race you like to see - contested early, and running late.  Good call and good luck IWas.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2017, 07:25:21 am by ghostzapper »
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userpick

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #25 on: April 18, 2017, 02:57:12 pm »

Conquest is skipping the derby.
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Iwastherein1969

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Re: I must change my pick for...
« Reply #26 on: May 03, 2017, 08:42:15 pm »

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