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Author Topic: The situation has flipped  (Read 389 times)

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Biggus Piggus

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The situation has flipped
« on: March 29, 2017, 05:17:29 pm »

If you followed the National Federation of Independent Business surveys during the Obama administration, you could not miss the chronic pessimism. Small business owners let their politics dampen their economic views. They consistently reported economic views that were substantially worse than reality.

Now Democrats are doing it, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey:

"While current economic conditions were not affected by partisanship, this was not true for the component about future economic prospects: among Democrats, the Expectations Index at 55.3 signaled that a deep recession was imminent, while among Republicans the Index at 122.4 indicated a new era of robust economic growth was ahead. Interestingly, those who self-identified as Independents had an Expectations Index of 88.3, which was nearly equal to the midpoint of the partisan difference. Importantly, there was no moderation in these extreme views from last month, with the maintenance of the partisan divide fueled by selective attention to economic news, with Democrats more frequently reporting unfavorable developments and Republicans more frequently hearing of favorable changes. Overall, the sentiment data has been characterized by rising optimism as well as by rising uncertainty due to the partisan divide. Optimism promotes discretionary spending, and uncertainty makes consumers more cautious spenders. This combination will result in uneven spending gains over time and across products."
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ricepig

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Re: The situation has flipped
« Reply #1 on: March 29, 2017, 05:28:47 pm »

Who'd thunk politics mixes with business???? In my businesses, the commercial real estate is booming, while the agri end is languishing. I need strong prices to raise my rents in agri, it will take a climate problem somewhere to put it back in the bullish column. So, I guess I'd be in mid-range on consumer confidence.
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Biggus Piggus

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Re: The situation has flipped
« Reply #2 on: March 30, 2017, 01:26:23 pm »

Any hope in the plantings? Or are people going to steam over the cliff again with bumper crops?
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ricepig

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Re: The situation has flipped
« Reply #3 on: March 30, 2017, 01:56:12 pm »

Any hope in the plantings? Or are people going to steam over the cliff again with bumper crops?

Farmers are going to plant a crop every year, unless the government pays us not too, lol. Never been around a group that always thinks everything is looking up, as in lying flat on your back, everything's looking up!
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: The situation has flipped
« Reply #4 on: April 08, 2017, 12:55:52 pm »

Not trying to rain on anyone's parade. In fact, I hope that the general mood of both business and the consumer stays elevated for as far out as we can see. However, let one or two things go wrong and sentiment can change suddenly. Like the weather it's variable and unpredictable. Won't put TOO much comfort or stock in some of these indicators.
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ricepig

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Re: The situation has flipped
« Reply #5 on: April 08, 2017, 01:11:10 pm »

Not trying to rain on anyone's parade. In fact, I hope that the general mood of both business and the consumer stays elevated for as far out as we can see. However, let one or two things go wrong and sentiment can change suddenly. Like the weather it's variable and unpredictable. Won't put TOO much comfort or stock in some of these indicators.

The economy is cyclical, or has been since the beginning of time. I suspect that trend will continue.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: The situation has flipped
« Reply #6 on: April 08, 2017, 01:46:50 pm »

The economy is cyclical, or has been since the beginning of time. I suspect that trend will continue.
Very true; however, my point is that sentiment doesn't necessarily depend just on economic cycles. One can still be in a growth mode economy and the overall attitude/outlook of both business and consumers can change with little warning.
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