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Author Topic: 2017 Derby Trail  (Read 2747 times)

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ghostzapper

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2017 Derby Trail
« on: February 12, 2017, 08:00:41 am »

Thought McCraken looked good winning Sam Davis yesterday.  Classic Empire apparently had an abscess when he ran in Holy Bull. 
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ghostzapper

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #1 on: February 12, 2017, 09:27:34 pm »

Mc with a 95.  Probably should be a little higher.  And he's by Ghostzapper. :)
« Last Edit: February 12, 2017, 09:41:17 pm by ghostzapper »
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userpick

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2017, 09:48:11 pm »

McCracken is definitely a nice horse. He's had everything go his way in each of his starts, but that seems to always happen for elite horses. I did not like seeing him lug in during the stretch. Also felt like Tapwrit ran equally as well. It's a great time of the year.
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ghostzapper

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #3 on: February 12, 2017, 11:06:31 pm »

Horse who won San Vicente today was imoressive too. 
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kingoftherapids

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2017, 09:46:06 am »

From what i have seen up to this point, im not so sure i dont like uncontested chances. we will know more of this coming weekend of course.
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ghostzapper

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2017, 01:33:13 pm »

McCracken out of TB Derby with minor ankle injury.  Will run in Blue Grass.
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ghostzapper

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #6 on: March 04, 2017, 08:03:29 pm »

Two odds on favorites go down in NY and Fla.
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BigBrandonAllenFan

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #7 on: March 05, 2017, 06:53:59 pm »

I'll take Mastery to win the 2017 Kentucky Derby...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tn8i5oHyw9o
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mckinneyhog5

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #8 on: March 06, 2017, 02:27:37 am »

I'll take Mastery to win the 2017 Kentucky Derby...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tn8i5oHyw9o

You can have him..
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BigBrandonAllenFan

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #9 on: March 06, 2017, 08:34:29 am »


You can have him..

Mastery is Bob Baffert's best 3 y/o.  He is prepping on the west coast which is where if am thinking correctly 4 of the past 5 Kentucky Derby winners have prepped.  He looks low in the points standing, but that is only because he has only three races under his belt, all wins, one being his maiden, the next in the Grade II Bob Hope Stakes, and the last in the Grade I Cash Call Futurity at Los Alamitos.  Mastery races this weekend in a Grade II.  Pretty sure the race is at Santa Anita.  He'll get one more race in April then the Derby.

Mastery is a fast boy that can stalk a fast or slow pace, doesn't matter, and he has a tendency to run away from his foes in the stretch.   ;D
« Last Edit: March 09, 2017, 07:45:17 pm by BigBrandonAllenFan »
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userpick

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #10 on: March 06, 2017, 10:36:55 am »

Bob Baffert doesn't even know who his best horse is. That must be a nice problem for him. He's recently told people his horse running Thursday at SA, Irish Freedom, is developing like American Pharoah. So I'd pay close attention to him.
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BigBrandonAllenFan

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #11 on: March 06, 2017, 10:55:25 am »

Bob Baffert doesn't even know who his best horse is. That must be a nice problem for him. He's recently told people his horse running Thursday at SA, Irish Freedom, is developing like American Pharoah. So I'd pay close attention to him.
i will indeed. I bet one race a year, the Kentucky derby. I put 1000.00 to win on it. I have hit 4 of last 6.  So I take the ky. Derby seriously and I put in the study to match. I watch a lot race replays. There was a day in time I practically lived at Oaklawn.

So far, I haven't seen a prepper better than mastery, and I have watched all the current favs race. Will definitely watch Irish freedom. Baffert always gets first look.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2017, 03:22:23 pm by BigBrandonAllenFan »
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heavylifting

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #12 on: March 06, 2017, 07:14:33 pm »

I bet one race a year, the Kentucky derby.

I admire your discipline.

Most people who make a big hit attribute their good fortune to their skill in picking horses and figure why leave so much money on the table if I'm this good at it? They're not that good and they soon find that out.

Also, many people say that they're in it to make money, but what they really need is the action. They simply cannot sit out a race.

I know this because I don't exempt myself from either of these accusations. I've been as guilty as anyone else. 
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BigBrandonAllenFan

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #13 on: March 06, 2017, 08:33:41 pm »

I admire your discipline.

Most people who make a big hit attribute their good fortune to their skill in picking horses and figure why leave so much money on the table if I'm this good at it? They're not that good and they soon find that out.

Also, many people say that they're in it to make money, but what they really need is the action. They simply cannot sit out a race.

I know this because I don't exempt myself from either of these accusations. I've been as guilty as anyone else.

An old fellow that a few here will know by the name of Tommy McCuin, God rest his funloving soul, began to teach me about gambling when I was about 18 years old by taking my paycheck on Friday nights at his poker shack.  Tommy owned the dairy bar on the Old England Hwy in NLR back in the 60's through the 80's.  He was the smartest gambler I ever knew, and I knew a bunch of them.  Tommy had a knack for making half his living at gambling.  Tommy had a good number of those wise old gamblers sayings, and one I finally began to exercise was the one when he would say, "Son, You can beat a horse race, but you'll never beat the horse races".  Tommy also said on more than one occasion, "An Indian thinks a white man is crazy to bet that one horse can beat eleven more".   

I love the sport of kings.  If I could only have one sport in the world to watch, it would be the sport of kings, hands down.  When it came time for me to hang up my daily horse racing gloves, I began to do just like I used to see old Tommy do, which was pick one horse for the season and bet the wad on it.  The reason I like the Kentucky Derby for that one bet is the odds are at their best, and if you are watching the horses closely (meaning video replays) in the prep races, you can see who has high octane gas and who doesn't... And the Derby is a real race, no BS involved.

Take my early Kentucky Derby pick, Mastery... He is an easy spot if you WATCH and ANALYZE his races.  Watch what Mike Smith does start to finish with Mastery in the Grade I Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity above.  I've watched the race twenty times over.  Mind you, Mastery is racing against the hottest 2 year old hopefuls (nearly 3 years old) west of the Mississippi, and he buries them alive with minimal urging by Smith.  Mastery looks to me like one of those "just hang on for the ride" horses, just like you see Smith doing in the deep stretch run in the freeze frame pic below.  He's just letting the horse run, and Mastery has his head up and his ears laid back doing just that.  The freeze frame is worth a 1000 words if you break it down to it's most simple state.  Notice Mike Smith has his whip tucked down nearing the finish.   ;D

Here is the simple major factors that point me to Mastery>

1) Other than the Breeders Cup Juvenile winner, Mastery is the only Grade 1 winner of the top ten early Ky Derby favorites. And Mastery didn't even break a sweat in his Grade I runaway (see the video). 

2) Mike Smith.  Best in the biz.  Smith tapped Mastery a couple of quick times in mid stretch at Los Alamitos and Mastery literally hit another gear and responded by opening up 5 lengths in the next 100 yards.  Smith glided him home the rest of the way as Mastery continued to run hard.  Mastery knew when to run, not much different than Pharoah last season.  Out of the gate, Mastery's early speed allows Smith to put him right in behind the forward pace.  Mastery runs just as fast as Smith asks him too to the first corner.  If you will watch replays of the other top 10 derby contenders, you can plainly see no one else has that finishing burst quite like Mastery at this point. If someone can show me a video of a Kentucky Derby contender that has more closing burst than Mastery, I honestly want to see it.

3) Bob Baffert.  The best in the biz.  Gets his pick of the nations best bred horses.

4)  Four of the last five Derby winners have prepped on the west coast.  It doesn't look like that pattern is going to diminish this year.

5)  Los Alimitos was at a mile and a sixteenth, and there was NO QUESTION Mastery easily had another 3/16's of a mile left in the tank. 

6) Mastery simply looks the best so far from gate to wire on film.

Of course my bet could completely change after all the preps are done and I have seen all of them race in their major preps, but if Mastery doesn't falter, I'll be riding with him most likely.  Mastery gets two preps then the Kentucky Derby, and IMO he should easily roll in the gate on the first Saturday in May sitting undefeated at 5-0.  This Saturday's Grade II San Felipe Stakes for 3 year olds at Santa Anita features Mastery, and he should be fun to watch.  Problem for the bettor, his odds will most likely be near 1/2 at post time.  But in the Kentucky Derby you can get 3/1 on him, maybe even 7/2, which makes a $1000 bet fairly lucrative on the payoff.  If Mastery continues his pace, he will likely be the post time favorite in the Kentucky Derby.

MASTERY>  Bad boy.
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/mastery-lives-name-bob-hope-stakes/





 
« Last Edit: March 06, 2017, 09:46:18 pm by BigBrandonAllenFan »
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BigBrandonAllenFan

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #14 on: March 07, 2017, 06:17:03 pm »

Bob Baffert doesn't even know who his best horse is. That must be a nice problem for him. He's recently told people his horse running Thursday at SA, Irish Freedom, is developing like American Pharoah. So I'd pay close attention to him.

I checked out Irish Freedom. Here is the factors that I have a hard time with...

He has only 1 lifetime race, in which he indeed broke his maiden. The race he is probable for Thursday at Santa Anita is an Allowance Optional Claiming, but of course Irish Freedom will not be racing for a claiming price and will carry top weight I would assume. All the while, on Saturday at the same track, Mastery is the feature star of the weekend.

Another thing, should Irish Freedom win Thursday, and he should, he likely gets only one more prep, and if he takes that huge class leap straight into the Santa Anita Derby against Mastery, I cant see Irish F winning. If he shipped to a lesser prep derby and won, which he probably would, horses with only 3 lifetime starts just don't win the Kentucky Derby.

Baffert may have said Irish F is training like Pharoah, but he didn't say he could race like Pharoah.

And, the jockey up on Irish F is no where near the caliber of Mike Smith. Smith is on Baffert's best Kentucky Derby horse.  Baffert knows exactly which of his 3 year olds is best.  That's 100 percent of the reason Baffert has Mike Smith up on Mastery.  It isn't a hard conceptual fact to grasp. In fact it is very simple. A trainer puts his best jock up on his best horse. Adding to the pile, Mastery wasn't a 425k yearling purchase at Keenland for no reason. 

I can see Irish F developing into a great 4 y/o, but he is behind in experience right now. I'll check his race Thursday and if he breezes home 12 lengths in front, then he may be better than I think at this point.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2017, 09:19:26 pm by BigBrandonAllenFan »
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userpick

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #15 on: March 07, 2017, 07:24:29 pm »

Irish isn't even favored in Thursday's race as Baffert has another one in the race. I haven't even watched anything on Irish, was just passing along what I heard. One thing that makes no difference to me is who the jockey is, relatively speaking. Mario Gutierrez won the derby last year. The best horse wins 99 times out of 100 imo.
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BigBrandonAllenFan

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #16 on: March 07, 2017, 09:06:59 pm »

The best horse wins 99 times out of 100 imo.

Agreed.  Which is why Pharoah won last year, and which is why Mastery will likely win this year.

A lot of folks will bet the Breeder's Cup Juvenile champ, Classic Empire, and he may go favored in Kentucky, but if you watch his Breeder's Cup Juvenile win, Classic empire was out of gas at the end, and if there was another 50 yards in the race it would have been a photo.  I haven't seen the final furlong fractions of Classic Empire in the 1 1/16 mile Juvenile, but I can tell just by watching they were 3/4 of a second slower than Mastery ran the final furlong in the Los Alamitos G1 Cash Call Futurity, probably closer to a full second slower.  That's 5 lengths difference. 

I will also say with confidence that Mastery will bury Classic Empire in the stretch at 1 1/4 miles.  Mastery timed an 11.61 final furlong in the 1 1/16 mile Cash Call.  That's gettin it. Smith tapped Mastery at the final furlong pole and then put his whip in his pocket for the final hang on and watch Mastery go furlong.  I'll have to look and see if I can find the time on Classic Empire's final furlong in the Breeders Cup, but it wasn't close to 11.61, unless my horse watching eyes have gone bad.

Classic Empire> Breeder's Cup[ Juvenile
 





 
« Last Edit: March 07, 2017, 09:20:30 pm by BigBrandonAllenFan »
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userpick

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #17 on: March 07, 2017, 09:47:18 pm »

Mastery is certainly a nice horse and Baffert thinks highly of him, but comparing fractions in those two races is apples and oranges.
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BigBrandonAllenFan

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #18 on: March 08, 2017, 09:13:06 am »

Mastery is certainly a nice horse and Baffert thinks highly of him, but comparing fractions in those two races is apples and oranges.

The only fraction that really matters is how fast a horse can kick out a final furlong at a given distance.  I started to not even mention the fraction differential, but in this class the final kick is the winning element.

I rely almost exclusively on close visual assessment of a horse during it's races.  Start to finish. I watch when the whip is needed and when it isnt, and how the horse responds to the whip in the run for home. Compare Classic Empire's stretch run in the 1 1/16 mile G1 Juvenile to Mastery in the G1 Cash Call Futurity. The jock on Classic E went to the whip in late turn before they had straightened out for home, and the horse was  visibly slowing in the final furlong of the 1 1/6 Mike race. Then watch Mastery. Smith taps him twice in mid stretch at the furlong poll and then hangs on for the crisp, fast, untiring final furlong for Mastery. The difference is easy to see. Mastery has a late gear that I have not seen in the other major players.
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userpick

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #19 on: March 08, 2017, 09:24:03 am »

The only fraction that really matters is how fast a horse can kick out a final furlong at a given distance.  I started to not even mention the fraction differential, but in this class the final kick is the winning element.

I rely almost exclusively on close visual assessment of a horse during it's races.  Start to finish. I watch when the whip is needed and when it isnt, and how the horse responds to the whip in the run for home. Compare Classic Empire's stretch run in the 1 1/16 mile G1 Juvenile to Mastery in the G1 Cash Call Futurity. The jock on Classic E went to the whip in late turn before they had straightened out for home, and the horse was  visibly slowing in the final furlong of the 1 1/6 Mike race. Then watch Mastery. Smith taps him twice in mid stretch at the furlong poll and then hangs on for the crisp, fast, untiring final furlong for Mastery. The difference is easy to see. Mastery has a late gear that I have not seen in the other major players.

Again, Apples to Oranges. Classic Empire was up front with hands down, no questions about it, the fastest 3 year old in this crop. He put him away and then held off a very nice horse in Not this Time. Mastery has beaten 6 horse fields of horses that will be no where near the Kentucky Derby starting gate. The eye test is great, and Mastery very well could win the derby, but you'll never convince me that as of today, he's ran anywhere near as impressively as Classic Empire did in the Juvenile.
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BigBrandonAllenFan

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #20 on: March 08, 2017, 10:01:45 am »

 from Thoroughbred Daily News on Mastery>

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/masteryd12/

Quote
MASTERY (c, Candy Ride (Arg)—Steady Course, by Old Trieste)
 
‘TDN Rising Star’ O-Cheyenne Stables, LLC. B-Stone Farm (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $425,000 Ylg ‘15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $271,200.
 
Mar. 7 TDN Top 12 Rank: 2
 
Last Start: 1st, GI Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity, LRC, Dec. 10
 
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Bob Hope S., DMR, Nov. 19
 
Next start: GII San Felipe S., SA Mar. 11
 
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Mastery
 
KY Derby Points: 10
 
Only one letter separates Mastery from “mystery,” and only a convincing win in this Saturday’s San Felipe S. at Santa Anita separates this undefeated ‘TDN Rising Star’ from potentially overtaking McCraken at the head of the sophomore class. Yet despite projecting as the dominant and deserving favorite for his 2017 debut, Mastery is a bit of an enigmatic proposition considering he hasn’t raced since Dec. 10 and his resume sports only a maiden win (over no horses who are considered Derby contenders) followed by two five-horse-field stakes scores (in the post-Breeders’ Cup lull). If the San Felipe draws as expected, Mastery is going to have a real fight on his hands dealing with the likes of stretch-out sprinter Iliad (Ghostzapper) and the battle-tested stalker Gormley (Malibu Moon). Mastery’s top tactical weapon has been raw speed so far, but trainer Baffert knows legit Derby candidates must also show a rateable dimension, meaning it’s possible Mastery will be asked to back off a beat in the San Felipe to see what he’s learned since age two. “I’ve had the chance to teach him a few things. I love the way he’s progressing,” Baffert was quoted as saying on a Twitter account dedicated to Mastery. “He’s got a great foundation, and he’s learned to settle.”

 Finish....Race
1st...GI Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity
1st...GIII Bob Hope S.
1st....Maiden

« Last Edit: March 08, 2017, 12:45:06 pm by BigBrandonAllenFan »
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userpick

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #21 on: March 08, 2017, 10:15:36 am »

Again, I'm not trying to talk you off of Mastery or say he's not a very nice horse, because obviously he is. But as of March 8th, 2017, he has not ran a race as impressively as Classic Empire's juvenile win. No one knows 3 year old dirt horses better than Baffert so i'm sure he's a very legit derby contender. Which I hate because Baffert is the scum of the earth. But that's got nothing to do with the horse. If he wins impressively this weekend, he will no doubt be the derby favorite.
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kingoftherapids

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #22 on: March 08, 2017, 10:23:21 am »

dude talking about last furlong fractions like we sitting in europe or australia betting on turf races where they can run the first 7 furlongs in 1:35. lol
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BigBrandonAllenFan

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #23 on: March 08, 2017, 12:19:51 pm »

dude talking about last furlong fractions like we sitting in europe or australia betting on turf races where they can run the first 7 furlongs in 1:35. lol

KotR, you missed the point. I can't explain what I've written any better.


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BigBrandonAllenFan

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #24 on: March 08, 2017, 08:42:10 pm »

Again, I'm not trying to talk you off of Mastery or say he's not a very nice horse, because obviously he is. But as of March 8th, 2017, he has not ran a race as impressively as Classic Empire's juvenile win.

UP, on this I'll just agree to respectfully disagree.  Call it a stalemate.

The gate to wire form I see from Mastery in the Cash Call is a full cut above Classic Empire in the Juvenile.  All you have to do is watch the two videos. Mastery was full of run at the end of 1 1/16 miles and Classic Empire almost got ran down in the 1 1/16, but the problem with that was, Not This time was as out of gas as Classic Empire was by the finish.
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jdelo77

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #25 on: March 08, 2017, 08:55:34 pm »

Again, Apples to Oranges. Classic Empire was up front with hands down, no questions about it, the fastest 3 year old in this crop. He put him away and then held off a very nice horse in Not this Time. Mastery has beaten 6 horse fields of horses that will be no where near the Kentucky Derby starting gate. The eye test is great, and Mastery very well could win the derby, but you'll never convince me that as of today, he's ran anywhere near as impressively as Classic Empire did in the Juvenile.

I completely agree with userpicks assessment here ...
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BigBrandonAllenFan

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #26 on: March 08, 2017, 09:25:47 pm »

... Which I hate because Baffert is the scum of the earth. But that's got nothing to do with the horse.

i know what you mean about Baffert.  I don't like Tom Brady, but I know for a fact that Brady is the best QB in the biz.  A dynasty QB.  Michael Jordan is still the best player ever in the NBA.  Bob Baffert is the best trainer in thoroughbred racing.  Here is a list of active trainers with a Triple Crown>  Bob Baffert.   

Baffert hasn't gotten what you would call lucky, he just gets the best horses.  Just like Mastery.  When Mastery was on the auction block as a yearling, you can best bet Baffert had live eyes on him then and there.  Anyone buying the yearling knew they could get a Mastery/Baffert combo deal, which is exactly what happened.  And if all went well in the next year and a half as planned, you get a top jock, giving the owner a Mastery/Baffert/Smith sweep.  It's not rocket science.

Why wouldn't Baffert follow up a Triple Crown with a Kentucky Derby win?  Makes perfect sense.  If you think about, the odds are better he does win the Kentucky Derby than not.  Kinda like if I had to make a bet right now who is going to win the Super Bowl next year.  I'll put my money on Tom Brady. What other QB has 5 Super Bowl wins? If I have to bet who will win the NBA title this season, I'll take Cleveland and LeBron.  And for the Kentucky Derby, if I'm a year away betting in the dark, I'll instinctively take Baffert.  What other trainer has 4 Kentucky Derby wins to go with a pile of other Triple Crown Race wins? 

If I'm picking the Kentucky Derby, no different than with the athletes described above, I'm taking the fastest horse, Mastery>





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BigBrandonAllenFan

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #27 on: March 08, 2017, 09:54:13 pm »

Mastery has beaten 6 horse fields of horses that will be no where near the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

Field sizes are of no matter with Mastery and Classic Empire.  Some time 6 horse field are tougher.  No one gets blocked.  Every horse has a a lane so you have to win on pure talent and speed.   

Video replay proves without doubt Mastery and Classic Empire both have plenty enough early speed to grab forward positions into the first turn ahead of the Kentucky stampede.  My guess is Smith will try to put Mastery right in behind Classic Empire into the first turn, which will be 3rd or 4th.  The reason, Baffert knows Mastery is easily faster in the stretch than Classic Empire, and all he needs is a clean trip around the track to the stretch run..

And another thing I really really really don't like as for percentages about the Breeder's Cup Juvenile winner...They pretty much never follow up with a win the Kentucky Derby.  that's a fact.  They get a lot of action at the betting window, but that's about it.  Like what???... Only like 2 out of 32 BC Juvenile winners have went on to win the Kentucky Derby?  That is a lousy percentage.  Baffert has won twice that many Kentucky Derbys.  And it hasn't taken him 32 years.

I may be all wrong about everything.
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ghostzapper

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #28 on: March 08, 2017, 09:56:27 pm »

He may wind up being the fastest on Derby day, but he hasn't been remotely close to fastest to date.  Southwest winner beats his fastest race by 5 lengths.  3 year olds develop at differing paces so I am not calling him an impossible winner, but I don't agree that he is a conclusive winner right now. 
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BigBrandonAllenFan

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #29 on: March 09, 2017, 09:37:02 am »

He may wind up being the fastest on Derby day, but he hasn't been remotely close to fastest to date.  Southwest winner beats his fastest race by 5 lengths.  3 year olds develop at differing paces so I am not calling him an impossible winner, but I don't agree that he is a conclusive winner right now.

GZ, by no means am I conclusive at this point either. Most all legit contenders have two huge preps to go. I'll do my final analysis after watching ALL of those. If I see a horse that is better than Mastery then I'll get on him.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2017, 10:54:16 am by BigBrandonAllenFan »
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userpick

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #30 on: March 09, 2017, 09:38:33 am »

i know what you mean about Baffert.  I don't like Tom Brady, but I know for a fact that Brady is the best QB in the biz.  A dynasty QB.  Michael Jordan is still the best player ever in the NBA.  Bob Baffert is the best trainer in thoroughbred racing.  Here is a list of active trainers with a Triple Crown>  Bob Baffert.   

Baffert hasn't gotten what you would call lucky, he just gets the best horses.  Just like Mastery.  When Mastery was on the auction block as a yearling, you can best bet Baffert had live eyes on him then and there.  Anyone buying the yearling knew they could get a Mastery/Baffert combo deal, which is exactly what happened.  And if all went well in the next year and a half as planned, you get a top jock, giving the owner a Mastery/Baffert/Smith sweep.  It's not rocket science.

Why wouldn't Baffert follow up a Triple Crown with a Kentucky Derby win?  Makes perfect sense.  If you think about, the odds are better he does win the Kentucky Derby than not.  Kinda like if I had to make a bet right now who is going to win the Super Bowl next year.  I'll put my money on Tom Brady. What other QB has 5 Super Bowl wins? If I have to bet who will win the NBA title this season, I'll take Cleveland and LeBron.  And for the Kentucky Derby, if I'm a year away betting in the dark, I'll instinctively take Baffert.  What other trainer has 4 Kentucky Derby wins to go with a pile of other Triple Crown Race wins? 

If I'm picking the Kentucky Derby, no different than with the athletes described above, I'm taking the fastest horse, Mastery>








Well first of all, and i should've said this a long time ago...I'm not picking Classic Empire to win. He's pretty much off my list as of now. Just want to make that clear.

Next, to say that Baffert and the owners thought they'd have a derby horse when they bought Mastery is ridiculous imo. Do you know how many promising $450,000 horses Baffert has trained that either died as a 2 year old or just never made it to the races? Bob Baffert is the biggest cheater in racing.  He's killed more horses than anyone in training. There's no doubt about it though, he's the best dirt trainer ever. He couldn't train a dog to piss on the turf though. You said the odds are better he wins the derby than not...how? he's won 15% of the Kentucky Derby's he ever entered. A VERY impressive stat for sure, but he's lost 85% of the time. So the odds are not in his favor to win. And for what it's worth, Mastery is in my top 3 right now, so don't think I hate him lol.
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BigBrandonAllenFan

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #31 on: March 09, 2017, 09:08:43 pm »


 Do you know how many promising $450,000 horses Baffert has trained that either died as a 2 year old or just never made it to the races? Bob Baffert is the biggest cheater in racing.  He's killed more horses than anyone in training. There's no doubt about it though, he's the best dirt trainer ever. He couldn't train a dog to piss on the turf though.

I could probably take an educated guess, but the 450k ones that can take the Baffert grind are usually bad @ss.

As for turf racing, indeed, it isn't in Baffert's bag.  But there is good reason why.  The Triple Crown series is the biggest showcase of horse racing in the world.  It is American persona.  Baffert is a guy that likes big spotlights.  Most people in the USA can't even tell you the the name of the world's top turf race.  But most every American and half the rest of the world knows the Kentucky Derby.  Baffert's desire for the big camera lights outweighs anything turf racing could ever offer him.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2017, 09:41:45 pm by BigBrandonAllenFan »
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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #32 on: March 09, 2017, 09:35:04 pm »


Well first of all, and i should've said this a long time ago...I'm not picking Classic Empire to win. He's pretty much off my list as of now. Just want to make that clear.

Classic Empire's performance in the Holy Bull was pretty much dismal.  Abcess or not.  Irish War Cry was able to win the race because the others allowed him to set a slow quarter and half.  That won't happen as the competition stiffens.  I think Irish War Cry shows a good spunky run in the stretch, but the slow fractions no doubt aided IWC's spunky run to wire.

Irish War Cry timed a 47.4 half on the front end in the Holy Bull.  Mastery clocked a 45.3 on the front end of his last opening half mile in the G1 Cash Call.  Mastery is just faster.  Plain and simple.  Track this, track that...They could switch tracks and the result would be the same.  It doesn't matter.  I'll take the 45.3...

Irish War Cry and Classic Empire in the 2017 Holy Bull>
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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #33 on: March 09, 2017, 10:08:36 pm »

  Southwest winner beats his fastest race by 5 lengths. 

We will find out what Southwest winner One Liner is made of in the Rebel Stakes when Royal Mo and Victor Espinoza fly in to challenge.  I think One Liner needs to show a little more to be in the current talk with McCracken and Mastery.  Not that it isn't possible.  He looks good, good stretch runner, full of run to the wire in the Southwest.  That I like.  But so far, form wise, McCracken is the only horse I have seen that can compete with Mastery's current form. Those two have very steady heads in the stretch, and they're long striders. One Liner may be under rated though.  He is probably Pletcher's best 3 y/o.  And he always has a fine little stable himself as we know.

What Royal Mo is made of remains to be seen in the Rebel.  Imo though, Royal Mo is flying out of California because his barn doesn't think he can beat Mastery in the Santa Anita Derby.  Seen that kinda move many times.  The horses that have found Triple Crown success via Oaklawn have usually wintered at Oaklawn for the entire meet and completed the Southwest--Rebel--Arkansas Derby prep regimen...Like One Liner.

I think One Liner will hold off Royal Mo in the Rebel.  I also think if any horse at Oaklawn can actually compete In Kentucky, it is One Liner.  When the jock in the Southwest smacked One Liner with the whip that dude took off like spooked rabbit.  The horse jerked his head back and jumped sideways and was like "WTH!!!! I'm in a bad spot!! I think that dam* 8 horse just bit me on my @ss! I'm getting the he11 out of here!"

 
« Last Edit: March 09, 2017, 11:37:10 pm by BigBrandonAllenFan »
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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #34 on: March 09, 2017, 10:30:33 pm »

McCracken is a big strong colt.  In his last race, the Sam Davis Stakes, he ranges up 5 wide on the turn and eats up the field coming from 6 lengths off the pace and appeared to do it with ease.  I'm just not fond of horses that do their best running from off the pace when it comes to the Kentucky Derby. Traffic proves to be a b!tch, too many times over.  But McCracken is a helluva horse IMO and he has the tools to win in Kentucky if the race sets up right for him and he stays out of trouble.

Obviously an extremely strong dude>


McCracken in the Sam Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs>

« Last Edit: March 09, 2017, 11:14:24 pm by BigBrandonAllenFan »
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BigBrandonAllenFan

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #35 on: March 09, 2017, 11:28:54 pm »

...When the jock in the Southwest smacked One Liner with the whip that dude took off like spooked rabbit.  The horse jerked his head back and jumped sideways and was like "WTH!!!! I'm in a bad spot!! I think that dam* 8 horse just bit me on my @ss! I'm getting the he11 out of here!"

One Liner, in the Southwest Stakes>


« Last Edit: March 10, 2017, 12:08:44 am by BigBrandonAllenFan »
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BigBrandonAllenFan

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #36 on: March 10, 2017, 12:02:36 am »

ooops
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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #37 on: March 10, 2017, 11:28:22 am »

If it is a bulk muscle contest, I'm not sure any of them measure up to McCraken.  It'll be very interesting to watch him in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes after missing the Tampa Bay Derby with a "minor ankle strain".  It puts him a prep race behind the others, but it may not even matter. 

The more I look at him the more I like him... Dude has the physique of a monster, but he may be best suited at this point for Belmont.  He'll need the benefit of a good honest pace in Kentucky.

   

Good update on McCracken here>
Quote
Unbeaten multiple graded stakes winner McCraken will miss the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2) March 11 after emerging from a four-furlong move Feb. 27 with a slight strain to his left front ankle.

Trainer Ian Wilkes said the son of Ghostzapper   cooled out in good order Monday after covering a half mile in :48.90 at Palm Meadows Training Center—the colt's first move since capturing the Feb. 11 Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) in track-record setting fashion at Tampa Bay Downs—and that the strain was discovered the morning of Feb. 28.

X-rays on the ankle were clean, according to Wilkes, and the plan is to point McCraken to the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2) at Keeneland in April for his final prep on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

"He worked yesterday, he worked great. This morning he just had a slight strain," Wilkes said. "I just feel like ... the horse comes first. And I don't want to come back and work him next week for the Tampa Bay Derby. If I have to miss a race, I would rather miss this one, take care of the horse, get him right and run him in the Blue Grass.

"I'm just going to do what's right by the horse. He's taken us this far and taken care of me. So now I need to take care of him and not do something stupid. But I really feel good, I think we'll be fine."

Though Wilkes hoped to get three prep races into McCraken leading into the first Saturday in May, he takes comfort in the already solid foundation Janis Whitham's homebred has in his four career starts. The bay colt won all three of his starts as a juvenile, including a triumph in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs Nov. 26, and he handled the Tampa Bay Downs surface in the Sam F. Davis which can be a tiring one that can put fitness into a runner in quick order.

"I've always had three preps in mind for him but you always allow yourself some room because ... had we planned on just two preps and something goes wrong like this later in the preparation, now I'm (out of luck)," Wilkes said. "This way, I'm still on target, everything is good. It's just a minor hiccup. But if this is the worst thing that happens, I'll be okay."

McCraken's 1 1/2-length win in the Sam F. Davis was his first start outside of Churchill Downs and improved his earnings to $310,848.

"This is a minor setback, but these things happen when you train horses," Wilkes said.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/220115/mccraken-to-miss-tampa-bay-derby-with-ankle-strain
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BigBrandonAllenFan

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #38 on: March 10, 2017, 11:45:28 am »

Watching Mastery in his GIII Bob Hope Stakes win is enlightening.  His form is that of a 5 y/o major Handicapper, in only his second lifetime start.  He is flawless.  He has that sleek as a Ferrari build with very long smooth strides and he shows that here.

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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #39 on: March 10, 2017, 04:16:34 pm »

At this stage, I like McCracken.  San Felipe is an interesting race.  Top 3 all like to run on front end. 
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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #40 on: March 10, 2017, 05:45:56 pm »

At this stage, I like McCracken.  San Felipe is an interesting race.  Top 3 all like to run on front end.

I don't think anyone can knock you for currently being with McCracken.  He's my second choice.  He could wind up my first choice, but if I had to bet the KD now I'd play Mastery.

And yeah on the San Felipe.  That is a highly competitive field.  I think if Mastery can just settle in right in behind the early lead he will be fine.
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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #41 on: March 10, 2017, 05:49:13 pm »

Illiad may be the real deal too.
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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #42 on: March 10, 2017, 05:57:47 pm »

Illiad may be the real deal too.

We will see for sure in the San Felipe.

Iliad definitely looked solid in the San Vincente at Santa Anita.  Notice the 44.08 he timed in the half mile on the front end and still had plenty of gas left at the wire.  I thought Mastery was cruising when he cut a 45.3 on the front end of the G1 Cash Call Futurity.

>



« Last Edit: March 11, 2017, 10:58:04 am by BigBrandonAllenFan »
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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #43 on: March 10, 2017, 07:10:15 pm »

He and McCracken are both Zapper sons :)
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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #44 on: March 11, 2017, 08:03:43 am »

One Liner not coming back to Oaklawn, only one more prep and that will be Bluegrass.
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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #45 on: March 11, 2017, 10:20:44 am »

He and McCracken are both Zapper sons :)

Zapper is cranking out some awesome kids.
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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #46 on: March 11, 2017, 10:27:01 am »

One Liner not coming back to Oaklawn, only one more prep and that will be Bluegrass.

Very interesting.  Odd that they would skip a March prep race with One Liner if he is completely healthy..  Kinda raises a flag.  Don't know what it means, but a flag nonetheless.
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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #47 on: March 11, 2017, 10:44:02 am »

One Liner not coming back to Oaklawn, only one more prep and that will be Bluegrass.

An already loaded Blue Grass just got loadeder.  What a race!  The winner of that race may well emerge as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby, especially so for McCracken should he win.  It'd be hard not to favor McCracken out of the Blue Grass given the competition level in the race.
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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #48 on: March 11, 2017, 10:58:31 am »

We will see for sure in the San Felipe.

Iliad definitely looked solid in the San Vincente at Santa Anita.  Notice the 44.08 he timed in the half mile on the front end and still had plenty of gas left at the wire.  I thought Mastery was cruising when he cut a 45.3 on the front end of the G1 Cash Call Futurity.

>

Does anyone know the reason Iliad had a replacement jockey in the San Vincente?  Did the regular jockey have another possible Derby mount that day would be my question?
« Last Edit: March 11, 2017, 11:29:37 am by BigBrandonAllenFan »
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Re: 2017 Derby Trail
« Reply #49 on: March 11, 2017, 11:04:44 am »

I can't figure what went wrong in Iliad's 1st race in which he ran 9th in his 1st maiden race.  He came back 2 weeks later and blazed a 1:08.34 in 6 furlongs for the win at Los Alamitos.

I just can't put him ahead of Mastery in today's San Felipe.

Bottom line on this call, Mastery has no question marks to this point.
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