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Author Topic: Shorting Trump  (Read 2776 times)

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Biggus Piggus

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #50 on: March 02, 2017, 02:16:23 pm »

SS, medicare and medicaid need to be modified. Too big a part of the budget. Cannot go to 99% of budget. Time to pay the piper.

I pity the fool who shorted Trump immediately after the election. I finished 2016 up 30% and about 40% of that came in the last 7 weeks of the year. YTD has been fantastic as well. Someone asked me 2 days ago if it was time to take some $ of the table. I told them I just invested more and the next day, the DJIA goes up 300 pts. We are in the 3rd or 4th inning of an economic boom and the stock market is trying to tell you that. It is a forward looking indicator of corporate revenues and earnings and of the economy.

Stocks are pricing in a corporate tax cut and a major infrastructure spending initiative. They had better happen, or look out below.
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HawgWild

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #51 on: March 02, 2017, 02:55:31 pm »

Stocks are pricing in a corporate tax cut and a major infrastructure spending initiative. They had better happen, or look out below.

I can't recall ever seeing the Rs give a standing ovation whenever 1 trillion $ infrastructure spending was proposed.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #52 on: March 02, 2017, 04:56:34 pm »

Stocks are pricing in a corporate tax cut and a major infrastructure spending initiative. They had better happen, or look out below.
I agree that to some extent at least the market does seem "priced for perfection". A lot of market movement recently is based on HOPE associated with the Trump agenda. Can't believe much of what he wants to get done will happen this year, if at all. Remember he still has to battle congress; just because it's controlled by Republicans guarantees nothing.
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HotlantaHog

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #53 on: March 03, 2017, 02:09:12 pm »

The economic data have gotten incrementally better in the U.S. and internationally. Yes, there is a bit of pricing in the expectation that Trump fiscal policies will be better -- more on taxes than infrastructure ... But the data have gotten better everywhere, and what happens globally matters a lot for U.S. stocks.

 Citigroup Economic Surprise
  Indices by region.
         A positive reading suggests that the economic releases have on balance
         been better than the consensus.

   Economic             3/3/2017  3 Mos    1 Yr
   Surprise Index                      Ago      Ago
   United Kingdom          86.20   42.80   -4.10
   Euro                        70.00   61.40  -62.90
   BRIC                        63.50     8.00  -16.00
   Canada                     62.60   47.60   -2.60
   Asia Pacific               58.90     5.60  -36.40
   Emerging Markets       53.30     1.50   -9.20
   Major Economies         41.80   35.50  -26.40
   United States              36.80   24.70   -12.30
    China                      32.80   13.70   -33.70
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Biggus Piggus

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #54 on: March 03, 2017, 03:29:32 pm »

Those Citi indices are very useful indicators, by the way. They don't tell you absolute changes in economic momentum - only performance of key economic indicators vs. consensus estimates from economists. They tell you whether results are coming in better or worse than expected. Direction changes in these things are very useful. Note that some of them are running at pretty high levels. Does that mean economists are still chronically pessimistic? Or is it more than that?
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HotlantaHog

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #55 on: March 06, 2017, 08:17:08 am »

There has been a lot of pessimism basically everywhere. In the U.S., we have been experiencing the 10 years of post-financial crisis slow growth predicted by Reinhart and Rogoff or Larry Summers' secular stagnation. In the U.K., there have been worries about recession post Brexit vote. The euro is a perpetual mess with structural problems that are nearly impossible to solve. Emerging markets and Canada have been dealing with a plunge in commodities prices that is only now reversing. China has its own set of difficulties that I wish I understood better...

So my take is there have been legitimate reasons for basically everybody to assume the worst about the world economy and look for very meager growth. When you get any upside surprise, it is not priced in. It is also true that some of the surprise indexes are driven by survey data as opposed to more concrete (i.e. GDP or retail sales or whatever) data. So confidence is surging in the U.S. and small businesses in particular love the new Trump administration. Will all that translate into something more than optimism? It hasn't yet.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #56 on: March 06, 2017, 12:31:12 pm »

There has been a lot of pessimism basically everywhere. In the U.S., we have been experiencing the 10 years of post-financial crisis slow growth predicted by Reinhart and Rogoff or Larry Summers' secular stagnation. In the U.K., there have been worries about recession post Brexit vote. The euro is a perpetual mess with structural problems that are nearly impossible to solve. Emerging markets and Canada have been dealing with a plunge in commodities prices that is only now reversing. China has its own set of difficulties that I wish I understood better...

So my take is there have been legitimate reasons for basically everybody to assume the worst about the world economy and look for very meager growth. When you get any upside surprise, it is not priced in. It is also true that some of the surprise indexes are driven by survey data as opposed to more concrete (i.e. GDP or retail sales or whatever) data. So confidence is surging in the U.S. and small businesses in particular love the new Trump administration. Will all that translate into something more than optimism? It hasn't yet.
Part of China's immediate problem is based on the fact that they've built the equivalency of something like 20 empty NYC's in the mad rush to continue their real estate boom. The Chinese have always been big real estate investors, from "mom and pop" to institutional concerns. Eventually even with the "shadow" banking set up there many of these bad loans are going to have to be dealt with. Not saying this will collapse the Chinese economy, I don't it will, however, there is going to be a "day of reckoning. And believe it or not, they are also starting to deal with a demographic issue that most of the developed economies have been increasingly dealing with: an aging population. Their policy of one child per family restrictions that was only lifted a few years ago has finally come back to bite them in that respect.

BTW as far as our domestic markets are concerned don't be totally shocked to see a long overdue sell off (maybe 5 to 10% from recent highs)IF the Fed does what a lot of folks they will do sometime this month-raise rates at least a 1/4  percent. Could be the first of two or three "bumps" this year. "Fed Interest Rate Tantrum" as it's been called in the past could reemerge as a road block to some further short term gains. Will be interesting to see how all this unfolds.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #57 on: March 16, 2017, 06:51:20 pm »

While there are always issues and unknowns that can impact any market, I think one thing we need to watch very carefully is the progress, or lack thereof, of any tax legislation by the administration and Congress. While we know that Trump campaigned for/against several major issues, including job creation and health care reform, I honestly believe that a HUGE tailwind behind the market rally since his election has been fueled by his promised tax reform/legislation on both an individual and corporate level. And while we all can agree that Trump can't get everything done at once, it appears with his decision to push health care reform so early in the game he could be using up a huge amount of political capitol, capitol from both parties that will most definitely be needed to grapple with tax issues.

IF tax reform is pushed out into the latter part of the year or even into '18, don't be surprised to see some of the stock market rally "fuel" run short very quickly. IMHO perhaps the administration should have reversed their agenda and tackled tax legislation first. After all, it's the one that will likely have the greatest immediate (and continued) impact on the performance of the investment markets.
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ricepig

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #58 on: March 16, 2017, 07:06:51 pm »

While there are always issues and unknowns that can impact any market, I think one thing we need to watch very carefully is the progress, or lack thereof, of any tax legislation by the administration and Congress. While we know that Trump campaigned for/against several major issues, including job creation and health care reform, I honestly believe that a HUGE tailwind behind the market rally since his election has been fueled by his promised tax reform/legislation on both an individual and corporate level. And while we all can agree that Trump can't get everything done at once, it appears with his decision to push health care reform so early in the game he could be using up a huge amount of political capitol, capitol from both parties that will most definitely be needed to grapple with tax issues.

IF tax reform is pushed out into the latter part of the year or even into '18, don't be surprised to see some of the stock market rally "fuel" run short very quickly. IMHO perhaps the administration should have reversed their agenda and tackled tax legislation first. After all, it's the one that will likely have the greatest immediate (and continued) impact on the performance of the investment markets.

He doesn't have any political capital with the Dems, so nothing missing there. We'll get a correction, whether we get the tax cuts or not. If you do, it'll be a buy the rumor, sell the fact correction. I've been expecting one, although probably not a 10% type correction.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #59 on: March 16, 2017, 09:19:19 pm »

He doesn't have any political capital with the Dems, so nothing missing there. We'll get a correction, whether we get the tax cuts or not. If you do, it'll be a buy the rumor, sell the fact correction. I've been expecting one, although probably not a 10% type correction.
No doubt you're right about the Dems; however, with a fight looming on ACA, whatever ability for the two sides to work together at all on taxes will likely NOT be likely happen, at least anytime in the near future. Trump should have worked on tax reform and THEN worried about health care changes. Wrong priority.
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ricepig

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #60 on: March 16, 2017, 09:31:09 pm »

No doubt you're right about the Dems; however, with a fight looming on ACA, whatever ability for the two sides to work together at all on taxes will likely NOT be likely happen, at least anytime in the near future. Trump should have worked on tax reform and THEN worried about health care changes. Wrong priority.

As a business owner and investor, I would have been more than happy with that, but I think the House wanted to repeal ACA first.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #61 on: March 21, 2017, 08:14:35 pm »

Stocks are pricing in a corporate tax cut and a major infrastructure spending initiative. They had better happen, or look out below.
Some discussion/speculation that today's relatively sharp sell off in the markets, across virtually every sector and size/style, is the supposed realization/likelihood that the corporate and individual tax cuts/reforms are growing more and more unlikely, at least in the immediate future. A TON of the administration's political "ammunition" is likely going to be necessary just to convince enough Republications, much less ALL of Congress, to pass the proposed changes to the current ACA. Note that financials, a particular sector that would be helped by tax legislation, really got hammered. Then again, that's an area of especially strong gains since Trump's election.

Quite frankly this is something that has concerned me over the past several weeks. While many view ACA reform as THE big first issue, quite frankly I've felt it was maybe second. The first was getting some tax relief. Oh well, here we go.....
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Biggus Piggus

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #62 on: March 22, 2017, 06:57:22 am »

No doubt you're right about the Dems; however, with a fight looming on ACA, whatever ability for the two sides to work together at all on taxes will likely NOT be likely happen, at least anytime in the near future. Trump should have worked on tax reform and THEN worried about health care changes. Wrong priority.

Trump is all politics and practically zero policy. He relied on Republicans in Congress to author the healthcare policy reforms that he trumpeted about through his presidential election campaign. He promised great health coverage, inexpensive coverage, but he never had the slightest idea of how that was going to happen.

Insiders are now saying that Trump did not realize how important the issue is.
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HawgWild

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #63 on: March 22, 2017, 09:37:51 am »

"It's an unbelievably complex subject," Trump said. "Nobody knew that health care could be so complicated." 2/28/17
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ricepig

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #64 on: March 22, 2017, 09:48:21 am »

"It's an unbelievably complex subject," Trump said. "Nobody knew that health care could be so complicated." 2/28/17


Health care is simple, paying for it, or rather those who can't/won't/don't is where the complexity comes in.
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niels_boar

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #65 on: March 22, 2017, 01:44:28 pm »

Health care is simple, paying for it, or rather those who can't/won't/don't is where the complexity comes in.

Health insurance seems like a poor business model to me.  Insurance works well for random catastrophic events that happen relatively independently of one another like accidental house fires.  However, if you live on an island, hurricane insurance is useless.  Either you don't need it at all, or everybody needs it, in which case the insurance company collects premiums for years and then declares bankruptcy.

Everybody will need healthcare in their life.  The problem is that the lion's share of health expenses typically occur late in life.  On average 73% of lifetime health expenditures occur after the age of 50.   The whole issue of the young paying for insurance is framed incorrectly as the young subsidizing the old.  Really, they are paying into a system so it will be solvent and affordable when they need it.  Otherwise, they have to save a fortune when they are young. However, when you are thirty-years-old, you always have some expense that is more pressing than saving for that by-pass when you are 65.  We already seem to be heading to a 401-K crisis in this country.  Even if you are of a bent to support no-money/no-treatment, that isn't going to happen in this country.  We aren't going to turn people away from emergency rooms.  So, you must find a solution that is more efficient than that, which is just about anything else.

I'm skeptical that competition is any sort of solution for health insurance.  One, if that's the problem, it's just an admission that the insurance companies are screwing everybody by colluding.  We can solve that problem with prisons.  Also, competition implies splitting the market, which takes leverage away from individual insurance companies in negotiating prices with providers.  That seems to me one of the the chief ways that insurance can drive down prices.  Their only other rationale for existing is that they can grow savings faster than individuals, but that implies that you have to pay in early to let compounding do its magic.  What the public wants is the "freedom" to pay squat for health insurance when they don't need it and to pay pennies on the dollar of their actual costs when they do need it later in life.  The arithmetic doesn't work out.  The insurance companies just want to collect premiums from healthy people.

The whole debate also ignores prices charged by providers.  Somehow healthcare has gone from about 5% of GDP when my father was a child to almost 20% now.  The doctors, drug companies,  and hospitals are all crying that they are trying to make ends meet when their share of the economy has grown by about four-fold in seventy years.  You just can't insure a Ferrari for nothing.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #66 on: March 22, 2017, 03:09:43 pm »

Health insurance seems like a poor business model to me.  Insurance works well for random catastrophic events that happen relatively independently of one another like accidental house fires.  However, if you live on an island, hurricane insurance is useless.  Either you don't need it at all, or everybody needs it, in which case the insurance company collects premiums for years and then declares bankruptcy.

Everybody will need healthcare in their life.  The problem is that the lion's share of health expenses typically occur late in life.  On average 73% of lifetime health expenditures occur after the age of 50.   The whole issue of the young paying for insurance is framed incorrectly as the young subsidizing the old.  Really, they are paying into a system so it will be solvent and affordable when they need it.  Otherwise, they have to save a fortune when they are young. However, when you are thirty-years-old, you always have some expense that is more pressing than saving for that by-pass when you are 65.  We already seem to be heading to a 401-K crisis in this country.  Even if you are of a bent to support no-money/no-treatment, that isn't going to happen in this country.  We aren't going to turn people away from emergency rooms.  So, you must find a solution that is more efficient than that, which is just about anything else.

I'm skeptical that competition is any sort of solution for health insurance.  One, if that's the problem, it's just an admission that the insurance companies are screwing everybody by colluding.  We can solve that problem with prisons.  Also, competition implies splitting the market, which takes leverage away from individual insurance companies in negotiating prices with providers.  That seems to me one of the the chief ways that insurance can drive down prices.  Their only other rationale for existing is that they can grow savings faster than individuals, but that implies that you have to pay in early to let compounding do its magic.  What the public wants is the "freedom" to pay squat for health insurance when they don't need it and to pay pennies on the dollar of their actual costs when they do need it later in life.  The arithmetic doesn't work out.  The insurance companies just want to collect premiums from healthy people.

The whole debate also ignores prices charged by providers.  Somehow healthcare has gone from about 5% of GDP when my father was a child to almost 20% now.  The doctors, drug companies,  and hospitals are all crying that they are trying to make ends meet when their share of the economy has grown by about four-fold in seventy years.  You just can't insure a Ferrari for nothing.
In one respect it's kinda like the Social Security set up. The folks that tended to pay in less due to their shorter time contributing once the system was established have most certainly benefited the most in relation to the benefits they've received over the years versus what they likely put in. Those of us who are "boomers" might or might not be able to even get back out everything we put in over time due to the draining of the funds available. And as far as "gen xr's" or "millennials"-------go luck on that!!

 
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niels_boar

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #67 on: March 23, 2017, 01:55:29 pm »

In one respect it's kinda like the Social Security set up. The folks that tended to pay in less due to their shorter time contributing once the system was established have most certainly benefited the most in relation to the benefits they've received over the years versus what they likely put in. Those of us who are "boomers" might or might not be able to even get back out everything we put in over time due to the draining of the funds available. And as far as "gen xr's" or "millennials"-------go luck on that!!

Yeah, Yale economist John Geanakoplos has spoken on that in length.  He believes that the primary problem with SS is that the original debt was never paid off.  During the Depression the elderly were amongst the worst off.  In order to relieve that problem they were given benefits from the growing horde of social security taxes without having paid in, but the return for all later generations decreases dramatically.

One way that private insurance is different than social security is that in theory private insurance companies can get significantly higher returns on your savings than the Federal Government. However, that requires you to pay in while young and healthy.
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BigBrandonAllenFan

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #68 on: March 23, 2017, 02:02:24 pm »

Yeah, Yale economist John Geanakoplos has spoken on that in length.  He believes that the primary problem with SS is that the original debt was never paid off.  During the Depression the elderly were amongst the worst off.  In order to relieve that problem they were given benefits from the growing horde of social security taxes without having paid in, but the return for all later generations decreases dramatically...

Without quantitative easing, social security would already be defunct.
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Biggus Piggus

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #69 on: March 24, 2017, 05:30:22 pm »

Now what happens? We have no healthcare reform plan at all. The Trump administration would rather see Obamacare's flaws make it melt down vs. fix them and have a viable plan. Nobody has a vested interest in developing a bipartisan proposal. Healthcare might have just become an untouchable issue for a while. Not sure who is going to take a stab at it after the spectacular failure of AHCA.
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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #70 on: March 24, 2017, 06:53:14 pm »

Tax relief is next, something more attainable, and needed.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #71 on: March 24, 2017, 08:51:39 pm »

Tax relief is next, something more attainable, and needed.
We can certainly HOPE that it's attainable.....however, with this dysfunctional Congress I wouldn't necessarily count on anything!!!!!
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HawgWild

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #72 on: March 26, 2017, 12:09:48 pm »

So, does the market write off the failure to pass the AHCA and get all giddy about tax "reform"?
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ricepig

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #73 on: March 26, 2017, 12:13:11 pm »

So, does the market write off the failure to pass the AHCA and get all giddy about tax "reform"?

Nah, we'll probably tread water here for several months, IMO. Probably stay in a 1000 pt range, remember when that was huuge?
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #74 on: March 26, 2017, 01:12:21 pm »

So, does the market write off the failure to pass the AHCA and get all giddy about tax "reform"?
I suspect that not only will you end up getting a ton of opposition from the Dems, but you'll also have some Republicans that won't necessarily go along with any changes. You also have to keep in mind that depending on the actual particulars of any changes that some industries who basically pay zero in taxes due to such things as depreciation and other expenses could lose some of those perks. As with anything there will end up being winners and losers out of any new legislation.

Keep in mind the old saying that "the devil is in the details". Yep, 'fraid that what's going to determine what, if anything, we see emerge out of this particular issue.
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HawgWild

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #75 on: March 26, 2017, 05:03:41 pm »

My NUE is acting like investing in infrastructure ain't going to be happening soon.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #76 on: March 26, 2017, 06:48:28 pm »

My NUE is acting like investing in infrastructure ain't going to be happening soon.
For what it's worth, and very likely not much at that, I honestly wouldn't expect much in the way of that before the very end of this year, early next. IF they get some type of tax reform then that might just about do it for the major legislative agenda for '17. Even accomplishing that is most certainly not a given.
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HotlantaHog

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #77 on: March 27, 2017, 10:25:19 am »

Now what happens? We have no healthcare reform plan at all. The Trump administration would rather see Obamacare's flaws make it melt down vs. fix them and have a viable plan. Nobody has a vested interest in developing a bipartisan proposal. Healthcare might have just become an untouchable issue for a while. Not sure who is going to take a stab at it after the spectacular failure of AHCA.
On health care, we get to see where last year's premium increases were a one time adjustment or the beginning of a spiral downward. The clearest beneficiary of ACA are hospital stocks ... if there is a serious effort to try to get something similar to Ryancare passed again, they will get hit.

Some Wall Street strategists say Trump never cared about health care and was just as happy to see it go down. Tax reform/lower taxes is something he cares a lot about. There will be a much stronger effort on taxes I suspect. If he gets taxes, an infrastructure bill and cuts in regulation, Wall Street will be happy and so will Trump.
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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #78 on: March 27, 2017, 11:59:37 am »

Republicans gutted provisions of the ACA that were designed to keep insurance companies in the exchanges and help them reduce the inflation rate of premiums. They did that years ago - intentionally - knowing the result would be much higher premiums and desertion by insurers. Then they stood up and shouted about how the ACA was "failing." It's so dishonest and mean-spirited, but hey, hooray Republicans! Always got our best interests in mind.

This is why they are so certain that "the ACA will fail" and all that. They know what they did to it. It makes me wonder what else they can do to sabotage the plan. It's not about crafting good policy, or doing things to help people. It's about winning. They believe they have won, when they force the ACA to melt down. That's pure idiocy, but there you have it.

Anyway, healthcare services stocks are up today on a rebound trade. Kneejerk if you ask me. Just because the GOP tried to rush through a healthcare bill and flopped doesn't mean the ACA is safe.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #79 on: March 27, 2017, 12:16:58 pm »

Republicans gutted provisions of the ACA that were designed to keep insurance companies in the exchanges and help them reduce the inflation rate of premiums. They did that years ago - intentionally - knowing the result would be much higher premiums and desertion by insurers. Then they stood up and shouted about how the ACA was "failing." It's so dishonest and mean-spirited, but hey, hooray Republicans! Always got our best interests in mind.

This is why they are so certain that "the ACA will fail" and all that. They know what they did to it. It makes me wonder what else they can do to sabotage the plan. It's not about crafting good policy, or doing things to help people. It's about winning. They believe they have won, when they force the ACA to melt down. That's pure idiocy, but there you have it.

Anyway, healthcare services stocks are up today on a rebound trade. Kneejerk if you ask me. Just because the GOP tried to rush through a healthcare bill and flopped doesn't mean the ACA is safe.
Totally agree about the "rush job" aspect of the proposed changes. It was as if they felt that if they actually took their times and made sincere efforts to work through various issues before trying to jam it through was the wrong thing to do. And yes, there's no doubt that over the past ten years or more the whole idea of winning at all costs no matter what the issue(s) is the only thing that matters. Working together and trying to seriously come to an acceptable middle ground is no longer even considered. Totally toxic "it's my way or the highway" approach to virtually everything Congress does any more. Both parties are to blame for this mess!!! >:( >:(
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niels_boar

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #80 on: March 27, 2017, 01:45:34 pm »

Republicans gutted provisions of the ACA that were designed to keep insurance companies in the exchanges and help them reduce the inflation rate of premiums. They did that years ago - intentionally - knowing the result would be much higher premiums and desertion by insurers. Then they stood up and shouted about how the ACA was "failing." It's so dishonest and mean-spirited, but hey, hooray Republicans! Always got our best interests in mind.

This is why they are so certain that "the ACA will fail" and all that. They know what they did to it. It makes me wonder what else they can do to sabotage the plan. It's not about crafting good policy, or doing things to help people. It's about winning. They believe they have won, when they force the ACA to melt down. That's pure idiocy, but there you have it.

Anyway, healthcare services stocks are up today on a rebound trade. Kneejerk if you ask me. Just because the GOP tried to rush through a healthcare bill and flopped doesn't mean the ACA is safe.

The Republican bill was moronic.  They kept the provision on pre-existing conditions and replaced the wet-noodle mandate of Obamacare with the comfy chair from the Spanish Inquisition.  The penalty was a 30% surcharge on premiums for a year, and, as far as I could tell, there wasn't even a waiting period for enrollment within a year.  Well, if you are healthy, you can save 100% of your premiums by waiting to get insurance until you are sick. The crossover on total savings is almost immediate if you are currently healthy. I had already done the calculation and concluded that I would have to be a sucker to keep my health insurance.  The media never caught on that it was going to lead to a complete collapse of the individual market in a short period of time.
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Biggus Piggus

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #81 on: March 27, 2017, 01:47:02 pm »

Totally agree about the "rush job" aspect of the proposed changes. It was as if they felt that if they actually took their times and made sincere efforts to work through various issues before trying to jam it through was the wrong thing to do. And yes, there's no doubt that over the past ten years or more the whole idea of winning at all costs no matter what the issue(s) is the only thing that matters. Working together and trying to seriously come to an acceptable middle ground is no longer even considered. Totally toxic "it's my way or the highway" approach to virtually everything Congress does any more. Both parties are to blame for this mess!!! >:( >:(

The ACA took many months to pass, but it also was an ever-changing beast whose final form wasn't set until late + had no Republican support -- because the GOP was enforcing a bloc of 100% opposition. Republicans say they weren't included, but that's really totalbullshit because they excluded themselves.

I was violently against Obama's timing for pushing the ACA, because its immediate effect was to raise the cost of labor at a time when the US economy was struggling to rebuild jobs. Why he focused on issues instead of the economy, probably a case of persistent momentum. Failure to ready the environment and adjust. Obama DID act quickly on healthcare reform, because he knew he only had one shot.

Obama did what he could do, which was work through the insurance system to create a coverage plan.

Hey, guess what guys, enabling people to pay for healthcare does ABSOLUTELY JACK darn about quality of healthcare. The ACA contains other mechanisms intended, eventually, to slowly crawl toward wimpy methods of leading the system toward improved quality. Sort of. It's a "Do something, somebody!" kind of Super-Law.

Our country has the most expensive (and not-even-close-to-highest-quality) healthcare system in the world. Why? Because the United States has the highest dependence by far on private insurance. We're the only outlier, the only major country that relies on private insurance to pay the majority of our healthcare costs.

Making insurance the primary payer is inherently wasteful. It also has supreme limitations when it comes to trying to engineer higher-quality care. Because doctors can opt out. Completely shut down insurance as a payer.

The more insurers and Medicare/Medicaid try to strongarm doctors, the more of them will go 100% private pay. That will give us two healthcare systems, one for the rich and a much worse one for everybody else. Changing this fate will require our political system to - first of all - get over any objections to treating care access as a right instead of a privilege. Just as hard will be breaking our dependence on private insurance as the primary payer.
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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #82 on: March 27, 2017, 02:41:56 pm »

Tax relief is next, something more attainable, and needed.

Not gonna happen...oh the dysfunction
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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #83 on: March 27, 2017, 03:46:56 pm »

Failure to pass the AHCA means that any tax reform must be budget neutral or the debt ceiling must be raised, correct?
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #84 on: March 27, 2017, 04:18:05 pm »

Failure to pass the AHCA means that any tax reform must be budget neutral or the debt ceiling must be raised, correct?
That's certainly going to be a huge consideration no doubt.
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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #85 on: March 27, 2017, 06:20:08 pm »

Failure to pass the AHCA means that any tax reform must be budget neutral or the debt ceiling must be raised, correct?

Ohhhh yes.
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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #86 on: March 27, 2017, 06:35:58 pm »

The ACA raised my out of pocket to $6,000/yr. That's everything.

Do away with the penalties, because I already have four damn taxes coming out of my check, I don't need a fifth.
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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #87 on: March 28, 2017, 10:15:49 am »

The ACA raised my out of pocket to $6,000/yr. That's everything.

Do away with the penalties, because I already have four damn taxes coming out of my check, I don't need a fifth.

The ACA didn't do that. High-deductible health insurance (created by the W administration) did that. Fool.
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HotlantaHog

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #88 on: March 28, 2017, 11:19:50 am »

Failure to pass the AHCA means that any tax reform must be budget neutral or the debt ceiling must be raised, correct?
The debt ceiling was going to have to be raised regardless, has nothing to do with ACA. The debt ceiling is about paying off bills for which we have already spent money. There is no choice. Even the Trump administration is asking, why is there a debt ceiling?

ACA repeal was estimated to reduce the deficit by $150 billion -- sounds like a lot but isn't. The impact of ACA was reducing the tax rate on high income individuals, the top 1%. It was a health-care bill but really more a tax bill disguised as health care. Yeah it helped on tax reform, but only a little.

There is a decent likelihood congressional Republicans will be more flexible in terms of tax reform being budget neutral. They typically favor tax cuts and smaller government. In the end tax cuts often trump the deficit. Remember the 1980s. Reagan really didn't care about deficits .... not sure the current GOP does either. Or either party, or many voters (not bashing, just a reality.)
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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #89 on: March 28, 2017, 12:01:16 pm »

The debt ceiling was going to have to be raised regardless, has nothing to do with ACA. The debt ceiling is about paying off bills for which we have already spent money. There is no choice. Even the Trump administration is asking, why is there a debt ceiling?

ACA repeal was estimated to reduce the deficit by $150 billion -- sounds like a lot but isn't. The impact of ACA was reducing the tax rate on high income individuals, the top 1%. It was a health-care bill but really more a tax bill disguised as health care. Yeah it helped on tax reform, but only a little.

There is a decent likelihood congressional Republicans will be more flexible in terms of tax reform being budget neutral. They typically favor tax cuts and smaller government. In the end tax cuts often trump the deficit. Remember the 1980s. Reagan really didn't care about deficits .... not sure the current GOP does either. Or either party, or many voters (not bashing, just a reality.)
Bottom line is that there really isn't a spending bill that government doesn't like. Heck, the way 99% look at it why worry? It's not their money; besides why go through the painful decision making of actually having to determine which part of the "gravy train" you're actually going to either reduce or stop. As long as you continue to push out the inevitable "day of reckoning" on the government's debt to some other Congress then let the games continue. Besides, if you actually cut or eliminate a government spending trough you might actually have to explain to those being gored why you did so. And that, my friends, is also likely to cost you votes and that we can't have. Remember the golden rule of the elected: It's never about responsible governing. It's only about getting elected term after term so you can continue to fatten your own wallet and other perks. Let the mindless sheep (i.e. the electorate) worry about going to the slaughter down the road when the bill(s) come due. What a scam!!
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ricepig

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #90 on: March 28, 2017, 01:07:35 pm »

Bottom line is that there really isn't a spending bill that government doesn't like. Heck, the way 99% look at it why worry? It's not their money; besides why go through the painful decision making of actually having to determine which part of the "gravy train" you're actually going to either reduce or stop. As long as you continue to push out the inevitable "day of reckoning" on the government's debt to some other Congress then let the games continue. Besides, if you actually cut or eliminate a government spending trough you might actually have to explain to those being gored why you did so. And that, my friends, is also likely to cost you votes and that we can't have. Remember the golden rule of the elected: It's never about responsible governing. It's only about getting elected term after term so you can continue to fatten your own wallet and other perks. Let the mindless sheep (i.e. the electorate) worry about going to the slaughter down the road when the bill(s) come due. What a scam!!

Do you plan on living forever? I've gotten the Alfred E. Neuman, "what, me worry" attitude about 10 years ago. My kids will have it better than I did, like I did from my parents. If these deficits mattered, they would have already hit the fan.
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HotlantaHog

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #91 on: March 28, 2017, 03:16:11 pm »

Do you plan on living forever? I've gotten the Alfred E. Neuman, "what, me worry" attitude about 10 years ago. My kids will have it better than I did, like I did from my parents. If these deficits mattered, they would have already hit the fan.
Debt or deficits don't matter in isolation, and there has been lots of scaremongering about them, but they do matter when they reach a tipping point.

The U.S. debt to GDP ratio is about 76% -- it is high, and some notable economists say once it reaches around 90% there are some bad consequences -- there is evidence that growth slows substantially when a country hits the 90% mark, according to the analysis of Carmen Reihart and Ken Rogoff. Lots of people put credibility in the Reinhart Rogoff formula; some people dispute it. Like most everything in economics, there is some controversy.

It's pretty clear at SOME point there is a tipping point and 90% seems pretty credible -- you could argue it is 80% or 100% or 110% ... the ability to sustain debt is not indefinite.

The problem with the U.S. budget is most of it is tied to Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, defense spending and interest on the debt ... the parts of the budget seen as discretionary (foreign aid! arts spending! infrastructure, etc) are pretty much a drop in the bucket. If you want to get serious about averting a spiraling out of control, you either have to raise revenue or do something to cap the growth of the entitlements and defense spending.

One of the underappreciated benefits of ACA is health care spending has slowed the past five years, even as it picked up more than expected last year. There is a debate over whether ACA should be credited or not, but health care spending HAS slowed which has improved the outlook for future budgets. Doing something that slows the growth in spending for health care (competition in drugs, health savings accounts, incentives that reward doctors and hospitals for care and not for services, bolstering competition in the marketplace, tort reform, among many other options) would be a huge help. BTW, whatever you think of the Trumpcare/Ryancare bill, it did NOTHING to create a more competitive health-care market with lower costs. Which is not to say there are not a lot of good ideas that both Democrats and Republicans have that could improve things.
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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #92 on: March 28, 2017, 03:32:11 pm »

I feel about Economists, like I do Shorthorn fans, I have no use for them.
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BigBrandonAllenFan

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #93 on: March 28, 2017, 03:42:29 pm »

The ACA didn't do that. High-deductible health insurance (created by the W administration) did that. Fool.

Yeah.  It only took 3 1/2 years into the Obama administration for Georgew W's health insurance policies to take effect, and by sheer coincidence that happened right after the ACA was signed.  ;)

Get real.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #94 on: March 28, 2017, 03:49:54 pm »

Do you plan on living forever? I've gotten the Alfred E. Neuman, "what, me worry" attitude about 10 years ago. My kids will have it better than I did, like I did from my parents. If these deficits mattered, they would have already hit the fan.
Problem is the DIRECTION and the rate that the deficit is growing. Nope, trees don't grow to the sky nor deficits build unchecked without the "chickens coming home to roost".

While I'm delighted your kids have it better than you did, don't rely on that trend going on forever. We've already seen the average income of a vast majority of Americans stagnate, if not drop, in relation to the cost of living. The jobs that were once totally American are in many cases GONE and they're not coming back. In addition, the automation that is helping drive cost efficiency's and profit margins for many companies are NOT the friend of many less educated, skilled workers. And just in case the argument for "well the answer is everyone needs a college education" tends to seem to solve much of today's ills just look around and look at the massive student loan debt; more importantly, look at the number of millennials and others who are coming out colleges WITHOUT decent paying jobs, if any employable education or skills at all.

One other thing: yeah, I suppose in my mid 60s I could take a "what the hell" attitude. After all, odds are that even if things don't improve I very well may not see the full consequences of our reckless financial and fiscal policies. Then again, something about me having grown up to believe that America's still going to need to be looked to as a major economic and military power in the years ahead gives me pause. Just because I might not be around doesn't give me the right to take a "I could give a damn" attitude for any generations following. Just like, thank goodness, it didn't give our Founding Fathers (and generations that came afterwards) the right to take any such "ho hum, who cares" approach to all the challenges and difficulties they faced. Sorry, that "dog won't hunt" then or now.

One final thought: I don't know how old you are; however, IF you're parents grew up during the Great Depression like mine it damn well wouldn't have taken much for my generation to have had it better than they did growing up. Heck, my grandparents were fortunate to even have jobs. The Greatest Generation" as my parents were proudly, and accurately known, wanted to give us kids a better life and I suspect in most instances they did. However, I can assure you they didn't build this country's economy to have it pissed away by reckless and unchecked government spending and debt. Sorry, I don't buy the idea that a country, and I mean ANY country, can spend, spend, spend and not pay the piper. Just because you own a economy's printing press doesn't mean you can continue to run up the bills without consequences. Because at the end of the day it's not how much money you've printed, it's whether all that paper is even worth a plug nickel. And if you want to very quick history lesson from that standpoint I offer two prime examples: The run away inflation of the Weimar Republic in Germany after World War I and our own present day Venezuela. While the forms of government are very different between the two, the plain simple fact is that inflation killed the former and rapidly torpedoing the latter. So go ahead and keep your laissez faire attitude. I suspect your descendants may very well NOT thank you for it. 
« Last Edit: March 28, 2017, 06:20:23 pm by Vantage 8 dude »
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twistitup

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #95 on: March 28, 2017, 05:19:07 pm »

Do you plan on living forever? I've gotten the Alfred E. Neuman, "what, me worry" attitude about 10 years ago. My kids will have it better than I did, like I did from my parents. If these deficits mattered, they would have already hit the fan.


You have got to be joking....if not - what a terrible line of reasoning.

Just curious, how old are your kids?
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ricepig

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #96 on: March 28, 2017, 07:23:50 pm »


You have got to be joking....if not - what a terrible line of reasoning.

Just curious, how old are your kids?

15-25, and yes, my parents did very well, and I did better, so my kids will have it better than me. I thought that was the American dream, leave your kids better off than you were. As to the other, there's no sense in me getting worked up over what the President of Congress does, I can't do a thing about what they do. I can make investments that secure my living and protect it for my children. Do you think these deficits just now occurred? You might do a little research.
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ricepig

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #97 on: March 28, 2017, 07:26:39 pm »

Problem is the DIRECTION and the rate that the deficit is growing. Nope, trees don't grow to the sky nor deficits build unchecked without the "chickens coming home to roost".

While I'm delighted your kids have it better than you did, don't rely on that trend going on forever. We've already seen the average income of a vast majority of Americans stagnate, if not drop, in relation to the cost of living. The jobs that were once totally American are in many cases GONE and they're not coming back. In addition, the automation that is helping drive cost efficiency's and profit margins for many companies are NOT the friend of many less educated, skilled workers. And just in case the argument for "well the answer is everyone needs a college education" tends to seem to solve much of today's ills just look around and look at the massive student loan debt; more importantly, look at the number of millennials and others who are coming out colleges WITHOUT decent paying jobs, if any employable education or skills at all.

One other thing: yeah, I suppose in my mid 60s I could take a "what the hell" attitude. After all, odds are that even if things don't improve I very well may not see the full consequences of our reckless financial and fiscal policies. Then again, something about me having grown up to believe that America's still going to need to be looked to as a major economic and military power in the years ahead gives me pause. Just because I might not be around doesn't give me the right to take a "I could give a damn" attitude for any generations following. Just like, thank goodness, it didn't give our Founding Fathers (and generations that came afterwards) the right to take any such "ho hum, who cares" approach to all the challenges and difficulties they faced. Sorry, that "dog won't hunt" then or now.

One final thought: I don't know how old you are; however, IF you're parents grew up during the Great Depression like mine it damn well wouldn't have taken much for my generation to have had it better than they did growing up. Heck, my grandparents were fortunate to even have jobs. The Greatest Generation" as my parents were proudly, and accurately known, wanted to give us kids a better life and I suspect in most instances they did. However, I can assure you they didn't build this country's economy to have it pissed away by reckless and unchecked government spending and debt. Sorry, I don't buy the idea that a country, and I mean ANY country, can spend, spend, spend and not pay the piper. Just because you own a economy's printing press doesn't mean you can continue to run up the bills without consequences. Because at the end of the day it's not how much money you've printed, it's whether all that paper is even worth a plug nickel. And if you want to very quick history lesson from that standpoint I offer two prime examples: The run away inflation of the Weimar Republic in Germany after World War I and our own present day Venezuela. While the forms of government are very different between the two, the plain simple fact is that inflation killed the former and rapidly torpedoing the latter. So go ahead and keep your laissez faire attitude. I suspect your descendants may very well NOT thank you for it. 

Well, you worry yourself sick over it, I'm going to take another vacation. I'm 58, my parents did grow up during the Depression, fortunately, my grandfather prospered before, during, and after it.
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Biggus Piggus

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #98 on: March 28, 2017, 07:29:06 pm »

Yeah.  It only took 3 1/2 years into the Obama administration for Georgew W's health insurance policies to take effect, and by sheer coincidence that happened right after the ACA was signed.  ;)

Get real.

You might have missed these facts:

High-deductible health plan (HDHP) is a class of insurance. High-deductible insurance has been rising as a % of total insured every year since coming into existence in 2004.

The inflation rate of insurance premiums in the United States was significantly slower with Obamacare than it was before Obamacare.

As in dramatically slower. Insurance premiums for family coverage rose at an 8% annual rate from 1999-2010. Since then, 4.5%.

What you pay for health insurance is different than what you pay for healthcare. If your employer shifted you to high-deductible insurance, you saw less increase in premiums but much higher out-of-pocket expenses.

Employers are using high-deductible insurance to shift more cost onto employees. Make you more conscious of your healthcare spending. Obamacare didn't do this.

High-deductible insurance began to gain critical mass right around the time the Affordable Care Act started rolling out its myriad mandates. Two completely separate phenomena, but it's obvious that dumbass rubes blamed their huge cost increases on Obama.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Shorting Trump
« Reply #99 on: March 28, 2017, 08:12:33 pm »

15-25, and yes, my parents did very well, and I did better, so my kids will have it better than me. I thought that was the American dream, leave your kids better off than you were. As to the other, there's no sense in me getting worked up over what the President of Congress does, I can't do a thing about what they do. I can make investments that secure my living and protect it for my children. Do you think these deficits just now occurred? You might do a little research.
Well gee....what a revelation that the problem didn't just begin yesterday. Wow!!!!! Now that's a truly a fact I didn't realize...not! That's part of the problem-no one in Congress or the administration(s) have wanted to do a damn thing about it. Nope, don't want to call the problem to the attention of the voting public 'cause it might cost you some votes. They've constantly "kicked the can down the road" for years just wanting future politicians to deal with the ever increasing mess. Problem is too many people want to stick their head in the sand and hope that it goes away. The only thing that does is leaves your ass in the air for someone to come along and kick it. But yeah, you just sit there and think that ignoring the problem is going to make it go away and/or solve itself.

And while we're giving one another economic lessons how about letting everyone know who owns the biggest part of our national I.O.U.s (government debt)? One hint: it ISN'T the U.S. government or even its own citizens. Try the folks we call the Chinese (both private and government), Japanese(both private and government), Saudis(primarily government), various European and Asian and Latin American banks, etc. etc. And guess what happens if our government continues its unchecked spending and some (or all) those foreign holders start to lose faith in our government's ability to continue running up debts, printing virtually unlimited amounts of dollars, etc. Guess what happens if/when the FULL FAITH AND CREDIT OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT doesn't mean "jack" any longer. I can promise you that if and when that day happens you, me, your kids, my children, our grandkids or anyone else in this country will very likely NOT going to  want to be around 'cause it's going to get ugly, and it's going to get ugly real quick. 










































 
« Last Edit: March 28, 2017, 08:31:07 pm by Vantage 8 dude »
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