Let's face some facts

[DLUXHOG]

FYI.... Arkansas average (pure average but discounting ties) record from program inception (1894 - to date) is 6 - 4
Pre Broyles (1894 - 1957) average record was 4 - 4
Broyles era (1958 - 1976) average record was 8 - 3
Holtz era (1977 - 1983) average record was 9 - 2
Post Broyles era to Nutt (1977 - 1997) average record was 7 - 5
Nutt era average record was 8 - 5
Petrino (including Smiley) era average record was 8 - 5
Beliema average record is 6 - 6

The Hogs have had 4 undefeated seasons (1895, 1897, 1909, and 1964)
The Hogs have had 12 seasons of 10 or 11 wins (1964, 1965, 1968, 1975, 1977, 1979, 1985, 1988, 1989, 2006, 2010, and 2011)
The Hogs have never had a season where they lost all games in that year.

so.... would some conclude that Holtz was the best coach the Razorbacks have ever had?

[hogsanity]

FYI.... Arkansas average (pure average but discounting ties) record from program inception (1894 - to date) is 6 - 4
Pre Broyles (1894 - 1957) average record was 4 - 4
Broyles era (1958 - 1976) average record was 8 - 3
Holtz era (1977 - 1983) average record was 9 - 2
Post Broyles era to Nutt (1977 - 1997) average record was 7 - 5
Nutt era average record was 8 - 5
Petrino (including Smiley) era average record was 8 - 5
Beliema average record is 6 - 6

The Hogs have had 4 undefeated seasons (1895, 1897, 1909, and 1964)
The Hogs have had 12 seasons of 10 or 11 wins (1964, 1965, 1968, 1975, 1977, 1979, 1985, 1988, 1989, 2006, 2010, and 2011)
The Hogs have never had a season where they lost all games in that year.

so.... would some conclude that Holtz was the best coach the Razorbacks have ever had?

you sure about Holtz's numbers because he finished 17-14-1 over his last 3 seasons iirc.

[DLUXHOG]

you sure about Holtz's numbers because he finished 17-14-1 over his last 3 seasons iirc.

yep, but its okay by me if you double check me.... (he had two, back to back 10+ seasons)

[depressed_fan]

I respectfully disagree. For a good coach, the floor at Arkansas should be 8 wins (not counting the bowl game). A 6 win floor sounds reasonable for schools like Kentucky, Missouri, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Ole Miss, or Miss State but not Arkansas.

Do you really think we are better than those programs? Whats our overall record against those programs?

3-4 vs Kentucky all time
3-5 vs Missouri all time
7-2 vs Vanderbilt all time
16-10 vs Mississippi state all time
7-9 vs Mississippi state all time MINUS the Nutt years
34-28 vs Ole Miss all time
27-25 vs Ole miss all time MINUS the Nutt years
13-9 vs South Carolina all time
6-6 vs South carolina all time MINUS the Nutt years

I isolate the Nutt years with the common yearly opponents because it's a larger sample size then 2 or 3 against Kentucky or Vanderbilt.

That's 53-51 vs those teams you mentioned minus the Nutt years on the annual opponents for a 10 year stretch. With the exception of Vanderbilt, and not considering Nutt's tenure vs the annual opponents, that's a losing historical record combined vs those programs.  That is the level we are on. We were above that level the 10 years Nutt was here.  We seem below that level most other years.

[Atlhogfan1]

you sure about Holtz's numbers because he finished 17-14-1 over his last 3 seasons iirc.

He was 8.5-3

17-14-1 combined SWC over last 4 seasons
30-16-1 over his last 4 seasons total

7-4 coach over his last 4 seasons

[DLUXHOG]

He was 8.5-3

17-14-1 combined SWC over last 4 seasons
30-16-1 over his last 4 seasons total

7-4 coach over his last 4 seasons

I rounded everything up or down and that is how Holtz was at 9 - 3.......

[Pork Twain]

Lou at Arkansas

1977 Arkansas 11–1 
1978 Arkansas 9–2–1
1979 Arkansas 10–2
1980 Arkansas 7–5
1981 Arkansas 8–4
1982 Arkansas 9–2–1
1983 Arkansas 6–5   
Arkansas: 60–21–2
Average = 8.5714-3-.2857
I think 9-3 works

[jesterzzn]

Lou at Arkansas

1977 Arkansas 11–1 
1978 Arkansas 9–2–1
1979 Arkansas 10–2
1980 Arkansas 7–5
1981 Arkansas 8–4
1982 Arkansas 9–2–1
1983 Arkansas 6–5   
Arkansas: 60–21–2
Average = 8.5714-3-.2857
I think 9-3 works

8-3-1 would involve less rounding.

[Pork Twain]

Do you really think we are better than those programs? Whats our overall record against those programs?

3-4 vs Kentucky all time
3-5 vs Missouri all time
7-2 vs Vanderbilt all time
16-10 vs Mississippi state all time
7-9 vs Mississippi state all time MINUS the Nutt years
34-28 vs Ole Miss all time
27-25 vs Ole miss all time MINUS the Nutt years
13-9 vs South Carolina all time
6-6 vs South carolina all time MINUS the Nutt years

I isolate the Nutt years with the common yearly opponents because it's a larger sample size then 2 or 3 against Kentucky or Vanderbilt.

That's 53-51 vs those teams you mentioned minus the Nutt years on the annual opponents for a 10 year stretch. With the exception of Vanderbilt, and not considering Nutt's tenure vs the annual opponents, that's a losing historical record combined vs those programs.  That is the level we are on. We were above that level the 10 years Nutt was here.  We seem below that level most other years.

Arkansas fans do not live off of facts, they live off of dreams and what they think happened.

[Pork Twain]

8-3-1 would involve less rounding.

In what world do you round down from 8.57 to 8.

[Jek Tono Porkins]

What I don't understand is at the beginning of the season, everyone's thought we would take a step back ane predicted 6-7 win regular season.
Surprise, we get a 7 win regular season and folks are calling for the coach's head. I don't know what you guys think a 7 win season entails, particularly in the SEC, put it pretty much implies that the team is going to struggle in certain areas. Teams with solid offense and solid defense and solid special teams win more than 7 games. I mean I can understand the concerns with recruiting, the style of play, etc. but we hear on here all the time that wins are the only thing that matters. If that's the case, why the bellyaching when the win total matches what everyone thought it was going to be?

[jesterzzn]

In what world do you round down from 8.57 to 8.

In most win scoring systems a tie counts for about half a win.

[The Galloping Ghost]

Arkansas fans do not live off of facts, they live off of dreams and what they WISH happened.

There ya' go. Spot on.

[PonderinHog]

In what world do you round down from 8.57 to 8.

In a truncated one...

[buldozer]

The fact is that right now it looks like most fans agree he will leave here a failure within a couple years one way or another..... I hope this is not the case, because if it isn't it can only mean one thing, that he pulled a rabbit out of a hat and learned how to win here

[depressed_fan]

What I don't understand is at the beginning of the season, everyone's thought we would take a step back ane predicted 6-7 win regular season.
Surprise, we get a 7 win regular season and folks are calling for the coach's head. I don't know what you guys think a 7 win season entails, particularly in the SEC, put it pretty much implies that the team is going to struggle in certain areas. Teams with solid offense and solid defense and solid special teams win more than 7 games. I mean I can understand the concerns with recruiting, the style of play, etc. but we hear on here all the time that wins are the only thing that matters. If that's the case, why the bellyaching when the win total matches what everyone thought it was going to be?

What I read was most people predicting 8 to 10 wins, not counting the bowl. I think the median prediction on here was 9-3.

How they thought this was a 9 win team is beyond me. I was surprised we won 7 but I didn't realize Missouri was so good and TCU was so bad either.

[lstewart]

I think the average records over time outlined by others is very good data. Throw in the fact today that our schedule is tougher than it was in the past when those results were generated, and now a 7-5 average record over a period of time is pretty good given our situation.

As I saw someone mention in another thread, there are good 7-5 years, and bad 7-5 years. Part of it comes from expectations coming into the year, and part of it comes from how competitive you are in your loses. Last year's team was generally more competitive in loses, so the 7-5 felt better... also considering the slow start and early loses. With a little luck we could have been 9-3 last year.

It is what it is, and probably is not going to change. I think BB will be here until he gets tired of fighting the uphill battle and decides to leave for another head coaching job. Probably a few more years from now.

[IntegrityHog]

CBB's seat is so cool you could store Dippn' Dots on it.

As long as he wins 6 or so games per year, keeps his parleys out of trouble, graduates his kids, and represents the University with class and integrity, Bret can stay here as long as he likes.

[Mike Irwin]

If Long is such a hot commodity , why is he still here ? He isn't a southern guy so I'd Think he would want to get back closer to home

He's one of the highest paid ADs in the country. His salary is over $1,000,000 a year. His bosses like him and listen to him. He just pushed through a $150 million dollar stadium expansion which his opponents tried to derail. They lost. He won. Why would he want to go anywhere else?

[Ben]

Ive been said this. Holtz is the greatest coach to ever coach at Arkansas. He had a better bowl record, conference record, and averaged more wins per season than Broyles. Not to mention he won a national title at Notre Dame. In 19 years at Arkansas, Broyles won 4 bowl games. In 7 years, Holts won 3. Not to mention I hear more people talk about how great the 1977 team was than the 1964 team. Holtz is the greatest coach to ever had the chance to coach at Arkansas. 

[Mike Irwin]

Ive been said this. Holtz is the greatest coach to ever coach at Arkansas. He had a better bowl record, conference record, and averaged more wins per season than Broyles. Not to mention he won a national title at Notre Dame. In 19 years at Arkansas, Broyles won 4 bowl games. In 7 years, Holts won 3. Not to mention I hear more people talk about how great the 1977 team was than the 1964 team. Holtz is the greatest coach to ever had the chance to coach at Arkansas.

Holtz went steadily downhill. The man could not recruit. High school coaches in this state hated him because he treated them like peons. By the time he was fired he was a 6-5 coach who lost the top three instate recruits to Oklahoma.

[Lake City Hog]

I really believe that many fans bought into BB saying things like "this may be the BEST D'Line I've ever had" and the constant media hype and let their expectations grow. Remember Holtz would often say things like " we will just show up every Saturday" and poor mouth the team all summer?? He NEVER gave us any reason to expect more.

[depressed_fan]

I think the average records over time outlined by others is very good data. Throw in the fact today that our schedule is tougher than it was in the past when those results were generated, and now a 7-5 average record over a period of time is pretty good given our situation.

As I saw someone mention in another thread, there are good 7-5 years, and bad 7-5 years. Part of it comes from expectations coming into the year, and part of it comes from how competitive you are in your loses. Last year's team was generally more competitive in loses, so the 7-5 felt better... also considering the slow start and early loses. With a little luck we could have been 9-3 last year.

It is what it is, and probably is not going to change. I think BB will be here until he gets tired of fighting the uphill battle and decides to leave for another head coaching job. Probably a few more years from now.

Yes that is a good point. It's always funny to read on these sites about how we improved because we went from 5 wins, to 7 wins the next year, to 8 wins the next year.

How does that define improvement? The 5 win team might have been a better team than the 8 win team.  The difference being the schedule was tougher. Or, we didn't get the same breaks or luck or had a different number of injuries to key players.

[PonderinHog]

You are what your record says you are.

[Ben]

I respectfully disagree. For a good coach, the floor at Arkansas should be 8 wins (not counting the bowl game). A 6 win floor sounds reasonable for schools like Kentucky, Missouri, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Ole Miss, or Miss State but not Arkansas.

Mizzouri just went back to back in the SEC east....Ole Miss just went to back to back NY6 bowls and almost beat Saban 3 straight times. Miss St just went to a NY6 bowl in 2014 and has only seen 2 seasons with 6 or less wins under mullen. South Carolina under Spurrier only had 1 6 win season and had 3 straight 11 win seasons. I can see Kentucky and Vandy. but to say for the others to have a 6 win floor and not Arkansas is sorta delusional. This isn't the SWC.

[Ben]

Holtz went steadily downhill. The man could not recruit. High school coaches in this state hated him because he treated them like peons. By the time he was fired he was a 6-5 coach who lost the top three instate recruits to Oklahoma.

Steadily down hill? the man went 9-2-1 before his last season at Arkansas. He only had 2 seasons he won less than 8 games. Think about that

[Pork Twain]

Steadily down hill? the man went 9-2-1 before his last season at Arkansas. He only had 2 seasons he won less than 8 games. Think about that

You can see the trend here right?
1977 Arkansas 11–1 
1978 Arkansas 9–2–1
1979 Arkansas 10–2
1980 Arkansas 7–5
1981 Arkansas 8–4
1982 Arkansas 9–2–1
1983 Arkansas 6–5   

One good year in the last four spells trouble, even in the SWC.

[depressed_fan]

        Before the Texas A&M and Missouri came on the schedule you could have made a reasonable case that 8 wins per season should have been the statistical average over a  long term period. When Nutt and Petrino were here that's what it was.  With the Aggies on the schedule, we have to view them like another Auburn, or LSU. If those programs are getting what they should out of their potential, Most years Auburn, LSU, Aggies, and Alabama are going to be favored against us. Trading Missouri for SC seems like a wash, but so far since they have been a permanent opponent they have won 2 of 3. They've won when WE were more than a touchdown favorite this season when they had a poor record. What that tells me is Missouri likely will take this game more serious than SC, if nothing else b/c it's a border game, and it's the last game of the year. Even if MO is having a bad year, they'll play like it's their super bowl, which we have already witnessed. SC was a mid season game where it was just another game.

If you could clone Nick Saban and put him coaching in year 5+ here, AND at each SEC program at the same time, On a 10 year rolling average, I would expect to lose about 7 of 10 to the AGGies. I would expect to lose about 5.5 of 10 to Missouri. So the statistical average of potential number of wins where it used to be 8 , is probably closer to 7 now.  Missouri will have a built in desire to beat us more often than SC if all 3 have similar talent, and the Aggies seem capable of beating us more often than whoever else we would draw from the East.

[Ben]

You can see the trend here right?
1977 Arkansas 11–1 
1978 Arkansas 9–2–1
1979 Arkansas 10–2
1980 Arkansas 7–5
1981 Arkansas 8–4
1982 Arkansas 9–2–1
1983 Arkansas 6–5   

One good year in the last four spells trouble, even in the SWC.

the only trend I see here was a drop from 79 and 80, but from 80 to 82, there was steady improvement. He won 2 bowls in that time frame. You are going to have off years during rebuilding. Broyles from 59-63 went from one 9 win season, to 3 8-win seasons, to 5-5 in 1963. We all know what happened the following year. Holtz was going to be just fine.

[Pork Twain]

the only trend I see here was a drop from 79 and 80, but from 80 to 82, there was steady improvement. He won 2 bowls in that time frame. You are going to have off years during rebuilding. Broyles from 59-63 went from one 9 win season, to 3 8-win seasons, to 5-5 in 1963. We all know what happened the following year. Holtz was going to be just fine.

The first three years he averaged 10 wins with someone else's recruits.  The last four, with his recruits, he averaged 7.5.  There is a difference there of almost three games a season.

[PorkRinds]

#1 BB is here for at the very least 1 more season and very likely several more seasons, unless HE decides to leave.

#2 HE will choose to retain/fire assistants as HE chooses, regardless of our opinions.

#3 As long as we win 7 or 8 games per year Jeff Long will not even think of replacing BB.

Those may be hard to swallow, but they are true and I think about everyone on this board knows it.
For those of you that even think that his seat will be warm in 2017, you are simply kidding yourself.
He can come out of 2017 at 7-5 win another middling Bowl and look forward to 2018 with the same enthusiasm.
2018 will be his 6th season and many of his promises will have faded by then. He could have things go his way in 2019 and win 9 or even 10 in the regular season and then he is KING.

BB won't make the stupid Petrino mistake, he won't have the terrible 3-9 or 4-8 seasons like Nutt. He will win just enough to keep his boss happy and just enough to keep people coming to games. Our ONLY hope is for him to finally have that light come on for himself.

All but one of your "facts" are actually opinions.

[razorsharptusk]

I really expected to see more fire from Coach B. in some of the losses we had this year.  I'm not saying he should pitch a fit in the press room or on the sidelines, but I'd like to see a bit more "I'm frustrated just like the fans are" emotion.  He never seems to get on players on the sidelines, or on the coaches.  His after game press conferences are just typical coach speak.  He is who he is, but I'd like to see that getting no production out of your team to win the game in the second half bothers him a bit.  And not getting off the bus in Auburn bothers him a bit.  No emotion whatsoever.  So goes the Coach, so goes the team.

[26.2Hog]

FYI.... Arkansas average (pure average but discounting ties) record from program inception (1894 - to date) is 6 - 4
Pre Broyles (1894 - 1957) average record was 4 - 4
Broyles era (1958 - 1976) average record was 8 - 3
Holtz era (1977 - 1983) average record was 9 - 2
Post Broyles era to Nutt (1977 - 1997) average record was 7 - 5
Nutt era average record was 8 - 5
Petrino (including Smiley) era average record was 8 - 5
Beliema average record is 6 - 6

The Hogs have had 4 undefeated seasons (1895, 1897, 1909, and 1964)
The Hogs have had 12 seasons of 10 or 11 wins (1964, 1965, 1968, 1975, 1977, 1979, 1985, 1988, 1989, 2006, 2010, and 2011)
The Hogs have never had a season where they lost all games in that year.

so.... would some conclude that Holtz was the best coach the Razorbacks have ever had?

Curious as to why you omitted Hatfield.  He had a better record than Holtz.

[Mike Irwin]

Steadily down hill? the man went 9-2-1 before his last season at Arkansas. He only had 2 seasons he won less than 8 games. Think about that

When you are losing in state recruits because their high school coaches are telling them to go out of state you are finished at Arkansas. That's never happened to any Arkansas coach I know of but Holtz. Some of the HS coaches didn't exactly like Petrino but they weren't telling their kids to avoid Arkansas.

[Wildhog]

When you are losing in state recruits because their high school coaches are telling them to go out of state you are finished at Arkansas. That's never happened to any Arkansas coach I know of but Holtz. Some of the HS coaches didn't exactly like Petrino but they weren't telling their kids to avoid Arkansas.

That's way before my time.  What was their issue with Holtz?

[Hoggish1]

I'm willing to let this thing play out.  CBB has many positive sides to his coaching.  But he won't have to be fired if he continues to win seven games because he will leave on his own.

Seven wins is not a top number to keep this job for me or him.

Had they not laid down in the 2nd half, but instead taken care of business to finish 8-4 there would be no complaining from anyone except the hand full of haters that have always been there.  You know them because they are not on the board after a win.  You also know them because they are all over this board when we lose...

But, to be clear, you can't give up 21 points in the 2nd half and score none when playing a dump of a program like UM.  That loss got him on a lot of people's wrong side who have been on his side all the way. 

I'm still trying to figure out why the total failure in last Friday's game.

[PonderinHog]

That's way before my time.  What was their issue with Holtz?

It's not the end of the world, but you can see it from there.

[DLUXHOG]

Curious as to why you omitted Hatfield.  He had a better record than Holtz.

No reason...
Here...
Hatfield's (1984 - 1989) average record was 9 - 3 (overall Hatfield was 55-17 - 76.4%) and he was a great coach..........
Holtz's (1977 - 1983) overall record was 60-21-2 (74.1%)

..... pretty similar results...  I think you're splitting atoms.... + Holtz's 1978 season the Hogs were preseason ranked #1 by Sports Illustrated...   Don't think any other Arkansas coach did that......

[depressed_fan]

I really expected to see more fire from Coach B. in some of the losses we had this year.  I'm not saying he should pitch a fit in the press room or on the sidelines, but I'd like to see a bit more "I'm frustrated just like the fans are" emotion.  He never seems to get on players on the sidelines, or on the coaches.  His after game press conferences are just typical coach speak.  He is who he is, but I'd like to see that getting no production out of your team to win the game in the second half bothers him a bit.  And not getting off the bus in Auburn bothers him a bit.  No emotion whatsoever.  So goes the Coach, so goes the team.

By watching his body language it looks to me like he's just happy to draw a multi-million dollar paycheck. I think that's with most coaches these days. Try to do enough to buy the next season, and another extension, and as far as the coach is concerned he's won. 4 million per year vs 400k per year as an assistant is a big difference.  It's the difference in being filthy rich and having more money than you can reasonable spend, and just being independently wealthy. I guess it's the difference in being a movie star or a doctor.

Did you happen to hear Les Miles interview the day after he was fired on the Dan Patrick show? ( I think it was Patrick). It was obvious he didn't care one bit he was out of there.

[Lake City Hog]

All but one of your "facts" are actually opinions.

Such insight! you added a lot to this discussion, thanks.

Holtz got on the wrong side of Frank over doing political ads for Jesse Helms.

[Pigasaurus]

LOL....CBP just wins.

Kentucky says "scoreboard." 

[Ben]

When you are losing in state recruits because their high school coaches are telling them to go out of state you are finished at Arkansas. That's never happened to any Arkansas coach I know of but Holtz. Some of the HS coaches didn't exactly like Petrino but they weren't telling their kids to avoid Arkansas.

I mean I can understand if its the state of Texas, Florida, Cali etc. But relying heavily on our instate recruits is why we are always playing behind with other major programs. There are simply better athletes around the states that border us. Now that's not saying Arkansas doesn't produce oh no. 2006-2011 showed us that. But when it comes to actually competing for a title, its hard to do that when a lot of your recruits are from Arkansas, compared to Louisiana, Texas, Alabama and even Mississippi. Holtz saw that, but that didn't settle well with the locals. Just look at Lance Alworth and Ronnie Caveness, 2 of the best players on that 1964 team. both from Houston.

[Ben]

The first three years he averaged 10 wins with someone else's recruits.  The last four, with his recruits, he averaged 7.5.  There is a difference there of almost three games a season.

Broyles averaged that same amount the 4 years before 1964. In fact, he averaged 7 wins at Arkansas up until 1964

[Al Boarland]

By watching his body language it looks to me like he's just happy to draw a multi-million dollar paycheck. I think that's with most coaches these days. Try to do enough to buy the next season, and another extension, and as far as the coach is concerned he's won. 4 million per year vs 400k per year as an assistant is a big difference.  It's the difference in being filthy rich and having more money than you can reasonable spend, and just being independently wealthy. I guess it's the difference in being a movie star or a doctor.

Did you happen to hear Les Miles interview the day after he was fired on the Dan Patrick show? ( I think it was Patrick). It was obvious he didn't care one bit he was out of there.

I'm still trying to confirm if he was riding around on a golf cart after the media period during practice.

[jesterzzn]

Just look at Lance Alworth and Ronnie Caveness, 2 of the best players on that 1964 team. both from Houston.

Not sure if serious...

[Ben]

Not sure if serious...

Both are from Houston, Tx. Alworth went to a high school in MS though

[Lake City Hog]

Ben, I think he meant that there were a lot of great players on that team.
Take Away the punt return by Hatfield against Texas and we don't even get to the Cotton Bowl.
Fred Marshall, Jim Lindsey, Crockett, Burnett, Jerry Jones, Jimmie Johnson and so many more.

[avatar]

Atl, that is every program in America. Personally, I think that it will be hard for ANY program to justify firing a guy taking you to a Bowl every year, graduating his players and not having any off-field issues with his players.

2014---7-6
2015---8-5
2016---7-6 or 8-5 depending on Bowl Game

2017 sets up really GREAT for us to win 7 and maybe 8 games again. With the Bye week just after game 2 we get 2 weeks to prepare for ATM then we get a bad Sun Belt team to prepare for our 1st road game at South Carolina. After 4 conference games we get Coastal Carolina, which we should treat as a Bye. Then we finish with 2 of 3 at home. Should we win more than that? Sure, but I figure we lose 1 we shouldn't.
So we finish 8-4 with a Bowl win 9-4 in 2017.

So how do you fire that guy??

TELL THAT TO KEN HATFIELD

[Lake City Hog]

Kenny wasn't fired, he left because Frank pressed him pretty hard to make some staff changes. Kenny took the Clemson job sight unseen and left.

[pfrg999]

Jeff Long will NEVER EVER EVER did I say EVER fire CBB... Ever... he could have 6-6 every year and he is here as long as he wants... As long as he doesnt give a GF a job he is lifetime