The Biggest Loser in Realignment: Conference USA

[NaturalStateReb]

Realignment seems to always focus on the Power 5.  At the heart of many of those discussions lies the Big 12, the Ottoman Empire of college football, ready to be dismembered by stronger neighbors.  College football, however, is bigger than just the Power 5, and the effects of realignment have been felt everywhere at college football's highest division. 

Conference USA is a conference born of mergers and realignment:  although it seems like it's been around forever now, C-USA is just 20 years old, formed from the merger of the old Metro and the Great Midwest Conference in 1995.  As recently as 2010, Conference USA looked like a solid conference, perhaps even a conference with promise.  Despite the defection of Louisville and Cincinnati to the doomed Big East in 2005, C-USA sported a decent lineup:  Houston, Memphis, SMU, Central Florida, East Carolina, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP, and Navy, among others.  It was a conference short on powerhouses and long on potential. 

Then along came the American.

The American Athletic Conference was formed from the ashes of the former Big East, now shorn of its basketball-only members.  The American had the football nucleus of former Big East football schools:  Louisville, Cincinnati, UConn, South Florida, and Rutgers.   In a bid to create the leading Group of 5 conference in the eastern US, the American raided C-USA of its biggest brands:  Central Florida, East Carolina, Houston, Memphis, SMU, Tulane, and Tulsa all bolted for the new league, tearing gaping holes in the fabric of Conference USA.

C-USA was faced with an existential dilemma--find new members, merge with the Mountain West, or go the way of the Western Athletic Conference and fold up shop.  Talk of a C-USA/Mountain West merger had floated around for some time but C-USA ultimately settled on a two-pronged strategy:  raid the Sun Belt and look to the FCS ranks.  Finding takers in those areas wouldn't be a problem, but who to take?  C-USA's strategy mirrored the strategy that the big boys used--take teams with an emphasis on media markets first, and success and support second.  C-USA added former Sun Belt members Western Kentucky, FAU, FIU, Middle Tennessee, and North Texas.  Lured from the FCS ranks were Old Dominion, UT-San Antonio, and UNC-Charlotte.  C-USA took a pass on arguably stronger potential members in Arkansas State, Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, Troy, and Louisiana-Lafayette.

So, how has this strategy worked?  Well, pretty badly overall.

UAB's program winked out of existence, then appeared to be back on for the 2017 season, sending C-USA down a team for the 2015 campaign.  While the expected C-USA standard bearers--Marshall, Southern Miss, and Louisiana Tech--fared pretty well, virtually all of the new additions have been colossal failures in C-USA.  Only Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky finished with more than 3 conference wins; the remaining six expansion teams won a total of 13 conference games combined.  Charlotte and North Texas won just 3 games combined overall.  Western Kentucky actually won the conference and 11 games, but Conference USA attracted far less attention than either the Mountain West or the American. 

Ironically, Conference USA's poaching of the Sun Belt actually removed some of the Sun Belt's weakest members.  The Sun Belt's stronger members, Arkansas State and Louisiana Lafayette, outdrew all but 3 C-USA members in 2014.  Sun Belt FCS expansion members Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, and Texas State outdrew all but 4 C-USA members.  FAU averaged about 14,000 in attendance, while FIU managed a paltry 11,966.  Half of C-USA's teams finished in the bottom 25 of attendance in the Group of 5 schools.  The Sun Belt came within 1,000 of passing C-USA in average attendance. 

The reason why Conference USA's realignment moves failed is because they were based on a faulty premise:  media markets matter.  This premise is certainly true if you're starting a league network, but Conference USA was never going to have a league network along the lines of SEC Network or the Big Ten Network.  "Adding markets" did practically nothing for C-USA, other than saddle it with underperforming programs.  Conference USA should have taken top performers from the Sun Belt and FCS; instead it gambled on geography and mostly lost.

The Big 12 may some day be gone, but even in its shrunken form, it's still relevant.  Conference USA was once an interesting, somewhat relevant conference.  Today, C-USA has turned itself into a boring backwater, clearly lapped by the American and Mountain West, and in serious danger of being passed by the Sun Belt.  C-USA, at least for now, is realignment's biggest loser. 

[Inhogswetrust]

Realignment seems to always focus on the Power 5.  At the heart of many of those discussions lies the Big 12, the Ottoman Empire of college football, ready to be dismembered by stronger neighbors.  College football, however, is bigger than just the Power 5, and the effects of realignment have been felt everywhere at college football's highest division. 

Conference USA is a conference born of mergers and realignment:  although it seems like it's been around forever now, C-USA is just 20 years old, formed from the merger of the old Metro and the Great Midwest Conference in 1995.  As recently as 2010, Conference USA looked like a solid conference, perhaps even a conference with promise.  Despite the defection of Louisville and Cincinnati to the doomed Big East in 2005, C-USA sported a decent lineup:  Houston, Memphis, SMU, Central Florida, East Carolina, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP, and Navy, among others.  It was a conference short on powerhouses and long on potential. 

Then along came the American.

The American Athletic Conference was formed from the ashes of the former Big East, now shorn of its basketball-only members.  The American had the football nucleus of former Big East football schools:  Louisville, Cincinnati, UConn, South Florida, and Rutgers.   In a bid to create the leading Group of 5 conference in the eastern US, the American raided C-USA of its biggest brands:  Central Florida, East Carolina, Houston, Memphis, SMU, Tulane, and Tulsa all bolted for the new league, tearing gaping holes in the fabric of Conference USA.

C-USA was faced with an existential dilemma--find new members, merge with the Mountain West, or go the way of the Western Athletic Conference and fold up shop.  Talk of a C-USA/Mountain West merger had floated around for some time but C-USA ultimately settled on a two-pronged strategy:  raid the Sun Belt and look to the FCS ranks.  Finding takers in those areas wouldn't be a problem, but who to take?  C-USA's strategy mirrored the strategy that the big boys used--take teams with an emphasis on media markets first, and success and support second.  C-USA added former Sun Belt members Western Kentucky, FAU, FIU, Middle Tennessee, and North Texas.  Lured from the FCS ranks were Old Dominion, UT-San Antonio, and UNC-Charlotte.  C-USA took a pass on arguably stronger potential members in Arkansas State, Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, Troy, and Louisiana-Lafayette.

So, how has this strategy worked?  Well, pretty badly overall.

UAB's program winked out of existence, then appeared to be back on for the 2017 season, sending C-USA down a team for the 2015 campaign.  While the expected C-USA standard bearers--Marshall, Southern Miss, and Louisiana Tech--fared pretty well, virtually all of the new additions have been colossal failures in C-USA.  Only Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky finished with more than 3 conference wins; the remaining six expansion teams won a total of 13 conference games combined.  Charlotte and North Texas won just 3 games combined overall.  Western Kentucky actually won the conference and 11 games, but Conference USA attracted far less attention than either the Mountain West or the American. 

Ironically, Conference USA's poaching of the Sun Belt actually removed some of the Sun Belt's weakest members.  The Sun Belt's stronger members, Arkansas State and Louisiana Lafayette, outdrew all but 3 C-USA members in 2014.  Sun Belt FCS expansion members Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, and Texas State outdrew all but 4 C-USA members.  FAU averaged about 14,000 in attendance, while FIU managed a paltry 11,966.  Half of C-USA's teams finished in the bottom 25 of attendance in the Group of 5 schools.  The Sun Belt came within 1,000 of passing C-USA in average attendance. 

The reason why Conference USA's realignment moves failed is because they were based on a faulty premise:  media markets matter.  This premise is certainly true if you're starting a league network, but Conference USA was never going to have a league network along the lines of SEC Network or the Big Ten Network.  "Adding markets" did practically nothing for C-USA, other than saddle it with underperforming programs.  Conference USA should have taken top performers from the Sun Belt and FCS; instead it gambled on geography and mostly lost.

The Big 12 may some day be gone, but even in its shrunken form, it's still relevant.  Conference USA was once an interesting, somewhat relevant conference.  Today, C-USA has turned itself into a boring backwater, clearly lapped by the American and Mountain West, and in serious danger of being passed by the Sun Belt.  C-USA, at least for now, is realignment's biggest loser. 

i'm trying to figure out how you would call that CUSA lineup "decent" and only a couple of those have the "potential" you referenced. Other than that it is an outstanding post.

[NaturalStateReb]

i'm trying to figure out how you would call that CUSA lineup "decent" and only a couple of those have the "potential" you referenced. Other than that it is an outstanding post.

I think Houston, ECU, Central Florida, and Tulsa have all had their bright spots over the past few seasons.  Tulane had an undefeated year that ended in the Liberty Bowl under Tommy Bowden and was trending up before Bowden left and Katrina arrived.  UTEP's made a couple of bowls.  SMU made 4 straight bowls between 2009-2012--I think Chad Morris will get them winning again, FWIW.  Again, nothing powerhouse there, but those programs had/have potential to have good seasons, go to bowls, and play interesting football.  Teams at this level are just going to be more susceptible to boom-and-bust cycles, IMO. 

[BPsTheMan]

Who is Natural State Reb?

[NaturalStateReb]

Who is Natural State Reb?

When you tear off this latex mask, I'm really Robert Shields, who's really Rey Pygsterio.  I'd get away with it too, if it wasn't for you kids and that dog!

[BPsTheMan]

When you tear off this latex mask, I'm really Robert Shields, who's really Rey Pygsterio.  I'd get away with it too, if it wasn't for you kids and that dog!

That reminds me: I'm still in love with Daphne on Scooby Doo

[NaturalStateReb]

That reminds me: I'm still in love with Daphne on Scooby Doo

You know Velma was a freak.  Librarian type. 

[DeltaBoy]

Your correct C-USA no where as good as it was.

[Inhogswetrust]

You know Velma was a freak.  Librarian type. 

I'm more of the Gilligan's Island Mary Ann type.............................

[Seminole Indian]

Taking teams with an emphasis on media markets first, was a big mistake, but the game changed on them about mid-stream in realignment.

SBC just got lucky, and even more so when  GoSo, and ApSt joined them. Small market, good football.

[Inhogswetrust]

Taking teams with an emphasis on media markets first, was a big mistake

No it wasn't.

[GuvHog]

No it wasn't.

Yes, for Conference USA, it was. That may not be the case for other conferences though.

[NaturalStateReb]

Taking teams with an emphasis on media markets first, was a big mistake, but the game changed on them about mid-stream in realignment.

SBC just got lucky, and even more so when  GoSo, and ApSt joined them. Small market, good football.

Teams like North Texas, UTSA, and Middle Tennessee just aren't going to move the needle in their markets.  There's no inherent market influence there.  I think a league like C-USA or the Sun Belt has to build off of competitiveness and local support.  Since there won't be any league network dollars flooding in, ticket sales and local interest matter more at the Group of 5 level than accidents of geography.

[Seminole Indian]

Yes, for Conference USA, it was. That may not be the case for other conferences though.

Only the AAC will benefit from markets. Really there are the P5's, the AAC, and then the G4, and the $ will reflect that. I do look for the G5 representative to post season bowl  to come from those four a lot going forward. All that matters in football in any Conference is can your team win it.

If not you are just one of a lot of teams just trying to make a bowl game at the end of the year. Hopefully where it is warm.

[Inhogswetrust]

Yes, for Conference USA, it was. That may not be the case for other conferences though.

Conference USA was not going to survive as it was no matter what. It was like the old SWC. There were way to many differences of opinions within it and some members were shopping around for a better place for themselves practically from day one.

[BirmingHam]

I'm more of the Gilligan's Island Mary Ann type.............................

You would pass on G-G-G-G-Ginger!??  You have got to be kidding

[PorkSoda]

I thought C-USA just changed its name to AAC, didnt realize that the AAC just raided all the good C-USA teams.

either way, I would say the AAC is now the strongest not P5 conferences

[Inhogswetrust]

You would pass on G-G-G-G-Ginger!??  You have got to be kidding

Naw..........I'd take both.

[Seminole Indian]

Teams like North Texas, UTSA, and Middle Tennessee just aren't going to move the needle in their markets.  There's no inherent market influence there.  I think a league like C-USA or the Sun Belt has to build off of competitiveness and local support.  Since there won't be any league network dollars flooding in, ticket sales and local interest matter more at the Group of 5 level than accidents of geography.

Yep, you eat what you kill at the G5 level( although a lot better in the AAC).

Believe it or not  fans actually like winning, and you can grow your program by winning. Old School way of doing it, but it works.

[Inhogswetrust]

I thought C-USA just changed its name to AAC, didnt realize that the AAC just raided all the good C-USA teams.

either way, I would say the AAC is now the strongest not P5 conferences

Bsasically it was because the Big East split and the basketball only schools left. Then the football schools formed the AAC.

[NuttinItUp]

Biggest winner in Realignment: American Athletic Conference

[NaturalStateReb]

Biggest winner in Realignment: American Athletic Conference

Could be. That's a pretty decent conference.

[NuttinItUp]

Could be. That's a pretty decent conference.

Also, they owe their entire existence to realignment. They have only been around since 2013 and are the result of the partial dismantling of the Big East.

[reddogjcss]

Oh well, Big 12 will. Most likely add Houston and one more like Cinci.

[Murr]

Oh well, Big 12 will. Most likely add Houston and one more like Cinci.

B12 will wait until after the vote for deregulation of the NCAA CCG requirements in mid-January before deciding how to move forward.  Ten team round robin play with a CCG would be perfect for their setup.

[NuttinItUp]

B12 will wait until after the vote for deregulation of the NCAA CCG requirements in mid-January before deciding how to move forward.  Ten team round robin play with a CCG would be perfect for their setup.

If this season is any indication, the less teams a P5 conference has, the better chance each individual team has at making it to the CFP. The Big 12 is at an advantage now, not having a conference championship game and one more chance for their top team to get knocked out of the picture or banged up.

[GuvHog]

Oh well, Big 12 will. Most likely add Houston and one more like Cinci.

.....After OU and Okla State jump ship for the SEC. I still believe that will eventually occur.

[Hawghiggs]

Biggest winner in Realignment: American Athletic Conference

Agreed. They only thing that the AAC needs to do is add Colorado state and New Mexico. This would give the AAC more media markets , a bowl game, and give the MWC a stake right in the heart.

[Dr. Starcs]

This spring on Abc, it's The biggest loser Georgia coaching staff season.

[PonderinHog]

This spring on Abc, it's The biggest loser Georgia coaching staff season.

[Smokehouse]

Oh well, Big 12 will. Most likely add Houston and one more like Cinci.

Houston just seems like a losing proposition for the Big 12. Doesn't help them with a media market, further dilutes the recruiting pool in Texas, and adds another Texas teams, which can't sit well with the rest of the conference. Adding more Texas teams probably hastens the eventual dissolving of the Big 12.

I think they'd be better off taking, say, Cincy and BYU. The New Mexico schools make more geographic sense but really don't bring anything to the table the Big 12 would want.

[Inhogswetrust]

.....After OU and Okla State jump ship for the SEC. I still believe that will eventually occur.

You believe Jupiter will collide with Mars.....................................

[NaturalStateReb]

You believe Jupiter will collide with Mars.....................................

When it comes to realignment you can't count anything out. Who saw Mizzou to the SEC?

[Doug]

Taking teams with an emphasis on media markets first, was a big mistake, but the game changed on them about mid-stream in realignment.

SBC just got lucky, and even more so when  GoSo, and ApSt joined them. Small market, good football.

Better CFB than most people will give credit for. Pretty decent in MBB (this year is going to surprise a LOT of people. I honestly expect to see 2-3 SBC teams in the NCAATs this year).

The Conflignment Insanity experiment the past few years turned out to be a pretty disappointing bust for most conferences. When MTSU and WKU left the SBC, that initially did hurt the Sun Belt... but with App State and Georgia Southern coming in, plus the rise of Georgia State (in MBB, and now in CFB), it seems that the AAC and SBC were the biggest winners in all G5/Mid Majors. There's still talk of the SBC picking up 1-3 more teams in the next couple years. Idaho will probably be told "Unless you're going to move ALL sports to SBC in the next two years, your agreement will not be renewed". I expect NMSU to get a full MWC invite very soon (they need to have a better regional footprint, plus being able to battle Colorado State in all sports would be a major money maker for both schools; there is a natural rivalry between Colorado and New Mexico).

C-USA losing UAB in CFB for a couple years really hurt them... however, the fact that C-USA stood by and supported UAB Blazer players and fans during the whole CFB fiasco really helped them out, from a visual perception standpoint.

Much has been said about parity in CFB, Basketball and Baseball the past couple years. The G5/Mid Majors have nowhere to go but up. The Majors and P5s are fighting (IMHO) to maintain status quo... cause the fall down is a pretty steep one. I don't think anything will ever be done to unseat the true powers (Pac 12, B1G, SEC and distantly, the ACC), but if they don't get it together (B12 here, too), the gap between these two distinctive groups is going to close measurably the next few years.

Which leads me to this: If the NCAA isn't careful about how they do things, they'll find themselves at odds with several conferences/schools that aren't branded as "P5" or "Majors". There's almost enough to force a cataclysmic shift in power/governance... the voice of "dissension" isn't quite ringing together as a fifth harmony just yet.

Believe it or not  fans actually like winning, and you can grow your program by winning. Old School way of doing it, but it works.

This is the exact reason why a 6-6 Georgia State managed to nab the "SBC Coach of the Year" award. NO one expected the Panthers to win much more than 4 games this year. FYI, 4 was the magic number Coach Trent Miles needed to keep from being fired. He saved his job status for a couple more years... but now, the benchmark is raised. He has to achieve at least 6 wins per year going forward.

Great read/discussion, NSR!

[JayBell]

+1.  Excellent post.  I was just thinking the other day about how surprisingly good the American conference was this year.

[DeltaBoy]

Teams like North Texas, UTSA, and Middle Tennessee just aren't going to move the needle in their markets.  There's no inherent market influence there.  I think a league like C-USA or the Sun Belt has to build off of competitiveness and local support.  Since there won't be any league network dollars flooding in, ticket sales and local interest matter more at the Group of 5 level than accidents of geography.

UNT was rolling under Dickey till his returning QB got killed in a car wreak on I-35. 2 years later Dickey is canned and they stunk every since.   My wife is a UNT Grad.

[NaturalStateReb]

UNT was rolling under Dickey till his returning QB got killed in a car wreak on I-35. 2 years later Dickey is canned and they stunk every since.   My wife is a UNT Grad.

Kinda wondered what happened down in Denton.  They were a Sun Belt contender, then it seemed like they just feel off a cliff.

[NaturalStateReb]

Better CFB than most people will give credit for. Pretty decent in MBB (this year is going to surprise a LOT of people. I honestly expect to see 2-3 SBC teams in the NCAATs this year).

The Conflignment Insanity experiment the past few years turned out to be a pretty disappointing bust for most conferences. When MTSU and WKU left the SBC, that initially did hurt the Sun Belt... but with App State and Georgia Southern coming in, plus the rise of Georgia State (in MBB, and now in CFB), it seems that the AAC and SBC were the biggest winners in all G5/Mid Majors. There's still talk of the SBC picking up 1-3 more teams in the next couple years. Idaho will probably be told "Unless you're going to move ALL sports to SBC in the next two years, your agreement will not be renewed". I expect NMSU to get a full MWC invite very soon (they need to have a better regional footprint, plus being able to battle Colorado State in all sports would be a major money maker for both schools; there is a natural rivalry between Colorado and New Mexico).

C-USA losing UAB in CFB for a couple years really hurt them... however, the fact that C-USA stood by and supported UAB Blazer players and fans during the whole CFB fiasco really helped them out, from a visual perception standpoint.

Much has been said about parity in CFB, Basketball and Baseball the past couple years. The G5/Mid Majors have nowhere to go but up. The Majors and P5s are fighting (IMHO) to maintain status quo... cause the fall down is a pretty steep one. I don't think anything will ever be done to unseat the true powers (Pac 12, B1G, SEC and distantly, the ACC), but if they don't get it together (B12 here, too), the gap between these two distinctive groups is going to close measurably the next few years.

Which leads me to this: If the NCAA isn't careful about how they do things, they'll find themselves at odds with several conferences/schools that aren't branded as "P5" or "Majors". There's almost enough to force a cataclysmic shift in power/governance... the voice of "dissension" isn't quite ringing together as a fifth harmony just yet.
This is the exact reason why a 6-6 Georgia State managed to nab the "SBC Coach of the Year" award. NO one expected the Panthers to win much more than 4 games this year. FYI, 4 was the magic number Coach Trent Miles needed to keep from being fired. He saved his job status for a couple more years... but now, the benchmark is raised. He has to achieve at least 6 wins per year going forward.

Great read/discussion, NSR!

Thanks, Doug. 

FWIW,  I think we really have 3 tiers in college football right now, and I think the gaps will widen financially, if not in fan interest:

SEC/Big 10

ACC/Pac-12/Big 12

Group of 5

I'm not sure how the Big 12's demise would change that dynamic, assuming that the Big 12 really does fall apart in a few years.  I think as long as Oklahoma and Texas stay in it, it'll be around.  Really, the playoffs could keep that league afloat.  The league's top heavy and has no conference championship.  If you're really good--especially if your name is Texas or OU--its practically a superhighway to the playoffs. 

The only question for me is whether the 12th vs. 13th game makes a difference.  I don't think it would with OU or Texas, but I think it's a stumbling block if you're anyone else in the Big 12.

[DeltaBoy]

Kinda wondered what happened down in Denton.  They were a Sun Belt contender, then it seemed like they just feel off a cliff.

Yep then the go and hire All World HS Coach from South Lake Carroll and he tanked it further. I really thought Todd Dodge would be able to do better but he was an abject failure.  And we have not got out of the pit since. 

[Murr]

Thanks, Doug. 

FWIW,  I think we really have 3 tiers in college football right now, and I think the gaps will widen financially, if not in fan interest:

SEC/Big 10

ACC/Pac-12/Big 12

Group of 5

I'm not sure how the Big 12's demise would change that dynamic, assuming that the Big 12 really does fall apart in a few years.  I think as long as Oklahoma and Texas stay in it, it'll be around.  Really, the playoffs could keep that league afloat.  The league's top heavy and has no conference championship. If you're really good--especially if your name is Texas or OU--its practically a superhighway to the playoffs. 

The only question for me is whether the 12th vs. 13th game makes a difference.  I don't think it would with OU or Texas, but I think it's a stumbling block if you're anyone else in the Big 12.

I tend to disagree with the B12 being a highway to the CFP.  Remember last year when both Baylor and TCU were sitting on the outside looking in?  Heck, OU should be thanking Stanford for beating Notre Dame.  Notre Dame could have been the defacto PAC 12 champ as they would have beaten USC and Stanford.  Not to mention, ND was ranked higher than OU at the time. 

The B12 still needs deregulation to pass to given them greater flexibility in choosing their champion and allowing them to have a CCG.  The other major sponsor of that bill is the ACC.  There are rumors that the ACC might want to establish three divisions so in case there is one really bad division, there should still be two other good/quality teams to choice from. 

[jvanhorn]

You would pass on G-G-G-G-Ginger!??  You have got to be kidding

Not a boob man, LOL.

[DeltaBoy]

Bottom line is the Big 12 got to get back to 12 teams have a North South division and get their championship game back.

[NaturalStateReb]

I tend to disagree with the B12 being a highway to the CFP.  Remember last year when both Baylor and TCU were sitting on the outside looking in?  Heck, OU should be thanking Stanford for beating Notre Dame.  Notre Dame could have been the defacto PAC 12 champ as they would have beaten USC and Stanford.  Not to mention, ND was ranked higher than OU at the time. 

The B12 still needs deregulation to pass to given them greater flexibility in choosing their champion and allowing them to have a CCG.  The other major sponsor of that bill is the ACC.  There are rumors that the ACC might want to establish three divisions so in case there is one really bad division, there should still be two other good/quality teams to choice from. 

Had either Baylor or TCU been named Oklahoma or Texas, the head-to-head winner would have made it. I truly believe that. Maybe things will be different as the playoffs become more established, but the pull of Ohio State in the initial playoff was just too strong.

The Sun Belt also skips a conference championship game with only 11 members. Wonder if they'd institute one if they could find a TV partner.

[Doug]

The Sun Belt also skips a conference championship game with only 11 members. Wonder if they'd institute one if they could find a TV partner.

The SBC will see the return of their Conference Championship game beginning with the 2017 season. Coastal Carolina joins in CFB then. That puts them at 12 teams.

I expect an announcement right before July 2017 that two new teams will be joining the Sun Belt. One will probably be Eastern Kentucky.

The other will be either Liberty or James Madison.

I expect Idaho and NMSU to be out... with Idaho possibly dropping back down to FCS (Big Sky) if they can't secure a MWC invite (unless the entire Big Sky conference moves up to FBS).

[Seminole Indian]

The Conflignment Insanity experiment the past few years turned out to be a pretty disappointing bust for most conferences.

More importantly for many teams, and their fans.

Under the new post season format the ticket to the show is about "whats in your teams wallet", when it comes to wins and championships.

If your team is in a conference where they can win a championship in football from time to time they are probably in good shape, but many fans are finding that realignment has made doing so much harder for their team. Some traditional powers are struggling with this new reality, and what it means going forward.

[NaturalStateReb]

The SBC will see the return of their Conference Championship game beginning with the 2017 season. Coastal Carolina joins in CFB then. That puts them at 12 teams.

I expect an announcement right before July 2017 that two new teams will be joining the Sun Belt. One will probably be Eastern Kentucky.

The other will be either Liberty or James Madison.

I expect Idaho and NMSU to be out... with Idaho possibly dropping back down to FCS (Big Sky) if they can't secure a MWC invite (unless the entire Big Sky conference moves up to FBS).

I think they'll add another team, too, and it'll probably be Eastern Kentucky.  They might punt Idaho out if they're unwilling to join in all sports, which would trigger a second add.

I'm not as confident that they'll add a conference championship game, though.  Karl Benson's said they probably wouldn't do it unless they could get a tv partner.  For a conference like the Sun Belt, that makes sense.  Chances are you're not going to have two ranked teams meeting up in a Sun Belt championship game--you'd be lucky to have one.  That doesn't really add to your champion's strength of schedule.  The only chance a Sun Belt team has of making a New Year's Six bowl is to run the table.  A conference championship makes that tougher.  Given that, the only reason to have one is if the regular financial benefit of having a championship game is greater than the occasional risk of knocking an SBC team out of the big bowls.  A championship game without a tv partner doesn't provide any financial benefit, so there's no reason to have one regardless under those circumstances.

[DeltaBoy]

It going to be fun to set back and watch how this all plays out.

[Doug]

I'm not as confident that they'll add a conference championship game, though.  Karl Benson's said they probably wouldn't do it unless they could get a tv partner.  For a conference like the Sun Belt, that makes sense.  Chances are you're not going to have two ranked teams meeting up in a Sun Belt championship game--you'd be lucky to have one.  That doesn't really add to your champion's strength of schedule.  The only chance a Sun Belt team has of making a New Year's Six bowl is to run the table.  A conference championship makes that tougher.  Given that, the only reason to have one is if the regular financial benefit of having a championship game is greater than the occasional risk of knocking an SBC team out of the big bowls.  A championship game without a tv partner doesn't provide any financial benefit, so there's no reason to have one regardless under those circumstances.

There's a few things that have changed the mentality on this that transpired over this year.

Again, with CCU coming into the league in all sports except CFB next year (CFB in 2017), the Conf CG is most definitely being planned for.

Since there are now 4 yearly SBC Bowl tie-ins (every other year, there's a 5th one, starting with 2016-17 season), the SBC will be able to push teams around where they need to. On the occasional years where you have a 10-2 or 11-1 SBC team (App State this year) that wins their CG, that puts them closer to the NYD6 bowl or even a potential playoff spot. If App State hadn't lost to Arkansas State, I guarantee you they would've had a legitimate claim to a Playoff spot with a Conf CG win and a single loss to Clemson (12-1 record).

Long story short: No team is going to get into the Playoffs or a NYD6 game without winning a Conference Championship Game.

We're all aware that money drives the conferences... and if the SBC had a CG, they would've been on ESPN, ESPN2 or ESPNU (AAC, C-USA, MWC, MAC, anyone?).

I think you're working with last year's info on the CG for the SBC... again, that was before the SBC announced CCU joining (which gets the SBC to 12 teams for 2017-18, which means that a SBC Conf CG will most definitely happen now).

That essentially leaves just the Big 12 as the only FBS conference without a CG.

[DeltaBoy]

There's a few things that have changed the mentality on this that transpired over this year.

Again, with CCU coming into the league in all sports except CFB next year (CFB in 2017), the Conf CG is most definitely being planned for.

Since there are now 4 yearly SBC Bowl tie-ins (every other year, there's a 5th one, starting with 2016-17 season), the SBC will be able to push teams around where they need to. On the occasional years where you have a 10-2 or 11-1 SBC team (App State this year) that wins their CG, that puts them closer to the NYD6 bowl or even a potential playoff spot. If App State hadn't lost to Arkansas State, I guarantee you they would've had a legitimate claim to a Playoff spot with a Conf CG win and a single loss to Clemson (12-1 record).

Long story short: No team is going to get into the Playoffs or a NYD6 game without winning a Conference Championship Game.

We're all aware that money drives the conferences... and if the SBC had a CG, they would've been on ESPN, ESPN2 or ESPNU (AAC, C-USA, MWC, MAC, anyone?).

I think you're working with last year's info on the CG for the SBC... again, that was before the SBC announced CCU joining (which gets the SBC to 12 teams for 2017-18, which means that a SBC Conf CG will most definitely happen now).

That essentially leaves just the Big 12 as the only FBS conference without a CG.

Scuttlebutt down here is that the Big 12 looking at Houston to come in.

[NaturalStateReb]

There's a few things that have changed the mentality on this that transpired over this year.

Again, with CCU coming into the league in all sports except CFB next year (CFB in 2017), the Conf CG is most definitely being planned for.

Since there are now 4 yearly SBC Bowl tie-ins (every other year, there's a 5th one, starting with 2016-17 season), the SBC will be able to push teams around where they need to. On the occasional years where you have a 10-2 or 11-1 SBC team (App State this year) that wins their CG, that puts them closer to the NYD6 bowl or even a potential playoff spot. If App State hadn't lost to Arkansas State, I guarantee you they would've had a legitimate claim to a Playoff spot with a Conf CG win and a single loss to Clemson (12-1 record).

Long story short: No team is going to get into the Playoffs or a NYD6 game without winning a Conference Championship Game.

We're all aware that money drives the conferences... and if the SBC had a CG, they would've been on ESPN, ESPN2 or ESPNU (AAC, C-USA, MWC, MAC, anyone?).

I think you're working with last year's info on the CG for the SBC... again, that was before the SBC announced CCU joining (which gets the SBC to 12 teams for 2017-18, which means that a SBC Conf CG will most definitely happen now).

That essentially leaves just the Big 12 as the only FBS conference without a CG.

I'm not sure that App State would have been seriously considered for a playoff spot at 12-1, even with the 1 coming against Clemson.  NY6 bowl, maybe.  Expanded 8-team playoff, maybe.  They weren't going to beat out Oklahoma for that 4th spot.  I just don't see a Sun Belt team ever making the 4-team field, but I can see an SBC team making the NY6 bowls, provided they run the table.

Speaking of Oklahoma, they made the playoff without winning a championship game.

With the announcement of Coastal Carolina, the big question will be what will happen with Idaho, and possibly New Mexico State.  I really feel for Idaho.  They're just in a place where geography is really hurting them.  They're clearly an outlier in the Sun Belt, but you can't really make it as full FBS independent anymore.  Notre Dame's not even really doing that now with the ACC deal.