Does Going to UK Actually Increase Your Draft Stock?

[Adam Stokes]

Thought I might as well post this now that Monk has already chosen to skip town and head east.  Looking through the data helped relieve some of my very sour grapes towards Malik and ill-will towards Marcus, since I was in a bad mood all yesterday and tried to stay off the board as much as possible.

Since there is always a lot of talk on the matter, I thought I'd explore the common question of whether going to Kentucky actually increases your draft stock.  Can it statistically qualify as a bu$ine$$ decision, or are they just simply being manipulated by Calipari?  People always say, "If you are good you will get drafted anyways."  That is certainly the case for many, but certainly not all.  Here are the stats to see whether there is any weight.

5-Star Analysis

I took all 141 5-star player's from the 247 Composite for classes between 2009 (Cal's first season) to 2014 (last draft-able class.)  The only factor I looked at is where they signed, not whether they transferred, went foreign, etc.

Here's what the data shows:

If you are a Top 5 player out of high school:

Chances of being drafted in the top 5 - Kentucky 56%, Rest 41%
Chances of being lottery or better - Kentucky 89%, Rest 68%
Chance of being drafted in the 1st round - Kentucky 89%, Rest 82%
Chances of going undrafted - Kentucky 0%, Rest 9%
% Still in college - Kentucky 0%, Rest 0%

If you are a Top 6-10 player out of high school: (Monk is currently 6 in the 247 Composite, though technically tied for 5th)

Chances of being drafted in the top 5 - Kentucky 13%, Rest 10%
Chances of being lottery or better - Kentucky 26%, Rest 24%
Chance of being drafted in the 1st round - Kentucky 64%, Rest 43%
Chances of going undrafted - Kentucky 13%, Rest 29%  ***Entered name in draft and went undrafted
% Still in college - Kentucky 13% (just Polythress,) Rest 14%

If you are ranked 11+ and still a 5-star:

Chances of being drafted in the top 5 - Kentucky 0%, Rest 5%
Chances of being lottery or better - Kentucky 17%, Rest 10%
Chance of being drafted in the 1st round - Kentucky 50%, Rest 33%
Chances of going undrafted - Kentucky 0%, Rest 24%  ***Entered name in draft and went undrafted
% Still in college - Kentucky 50%, Rest 28% ***Kentucky only had 6 total in the 11+ range, Ulis, Lee, and Wiltjer are still playing, all will be drafted according to NBADraft.net.)

Kentucky has had 85% of their 5-stars drafted in the first round, and 95% within two rounds.  Only 5% (Aaron Harrison) declared and went undrafted.

The rest of the league has had 55% of their 5-stars drafted in the first round, and 72% within two rounds.  26 players, or 28%, have declared and gone undrafted. (It should be mentioned that Kentucky gets a greater proportion of higher-ranked 5-star players.)

So for the TL;DR crowd, does having Kentucky on your chest get the scouts to believe you are better?  Regardless of the reasoning behind it, it appears going to Kentucky most certainly increases your chances of being drafted higher regardless of your rank out of high school.  It would take to long too also analyze the four stars going to Kentucky, but just eyeballing they also seem to do pretty good as well (ex Willie Cauley-Stein.)  Whether it is the name brand, keeping players from declaring too early when they have poor draft potential (here's looking at you Olu, BJ, Marshawn, or Beverley, (though the latter two weren't 5-stars,)) practices with other 5-star competition, an environment that keeps their athletes in check, etc., Kentucky appears to do a better job of maximizing the draft potential of the players that decide to sign on with Big Blue.  I'm sure Kentucky has all these stats to throw at recruits on official visits.  I fully believe Monk would've been a lottery pick and quite possible a Top 5 pick had he chosen Arkansas, but going to Kentucky is does indeed appear to shore up your chances.

[PonderinHog]

Well, I didn't go to UK and I didn't get drafted.  Therefore, I'd have to conclude that your theory is valid.

Right

[3kgthog]

To all this BS I'd come back with this: Joe Johnson is the 2nd highest paid player in the NBA this season behind Kobe Bryant. Joe is MILES ahead in terms of pay compared to the closest Kentucky player.

[ErieHog]

To all this BS I'd come back with this: Joe Johnson is the 2nd highest paid player in the NBA this season behind Kobe Bryant. Joe is MILES ahead in terms of pay compared to the closest Kentucky player.

Which is a nonsense comparison point.   Joe is in Year 14.

The major Kentucky NBA players, like Cousins, Davis, Wall, etc are all within their first 5 years in the league-- meaning they've operaed under the rookie cap for the majority of their NBA careers.

Something would be significantly wrong if he wasn't higher paid, cumulatively.

[PonderinHog]

Which is a nonsense comparison point.   Joe is in Year 14.

The major Kentucky NBA players, like Cousins, Davis, Wall, etc are all within their first 5 years in the league-- meaning they've operaed under the rookie cap for the majority of their NBA careers.

Something would be significantly wrong if he wasn't higher paid, cumulatively.

Nice avatar, Erie.  lmao

[HawgAdvocate]

To all this BS I'd come back with this: Joe Johnson is the 2nd highest paid player in the NBA this season behind Kobe Bryant. Joe is MILES ahead in terms of pay compared to the closest Kentucky player.

Joe also landed one of the worst (fully guaranteed $120 million) contracts in NBA history, out of fear by the Hawks that he would leave them in free agency after they already whiffed on signing Lebron, DWade, and Amari. Two years later, he and his contract were shipped to Jersey, where the new Russian billionaire owner was spending WAY too much for a mediocre team. Good for Joe though.

[Inhogswetrust]

The rest of the league has had 55% of their 5-stars drafted in the first round, and 72% within two rounds.  26 players, or 28%, have declared and gone undrafted. (It should be mentioned that Kentucky gets a greater proportion of higher-ranked 5-star players.)

So for the TL;DR crowd, does having Kentucky on your chest get the scouts to believe you are better?  Regardless of the reasoning behind it, it appears going to Kentucky most certainly increases your chances of being drafted higher regardless of your rank out of high school.  It would take to long too also analyze the four stars going to Kentucky, but just eyeballing they also seem to do pretty good as well (ex Willie Cauley-Stein.)  Whether it is the name brand, keeping players from declaring too early when they have poor draft potential (here's looking at you Olu, BJ, Marshawn, or Beverley, (though the latter two weren't 5-stars,)) practices with other 5-star competition, an environment that keeps their athletes in check, etc., Kentucky appears to do a better job of maximizing the draft potential of the players that decide to sign on with Big Blue.  I'm sure Kentucky has all these stats to throw at recruits on official visits.  I fully believe Monk would've been a lottery pick and quite possible a Top 5 pick had he chosen Arkansas, but going to Kentucky is does indeed appear to shore up your chances.

The part in bold is what makes this analysis questionable............................

[TomBigBeeHog]

In 8 years at UMass Calimari only had 2 guys drafted, Lou Roe and Camby. Wasn't getting players ready for the NBA through development then. Using smoke and mirrors now. These kids were going to the NBA anyway. Playing with a group of one and dones may cover some deficiencies for some. Others may not get the opportunity to blossom that they would if they were more of the focal point at other schools. Doesn't seem to be hurting Simmons at LSU.

[Pork Twain]

To all this BS I'd come back with this: Joe Johnson is the 2nd highest paid player in the NBA this season behind Kobe Bryant. Joe is MILES ahead in terms of pay compared to the closest Kentucky player.

There is no valid point made in this post.

[Adam Stokes]

The part in bold is what makes this analysis questionable............................

Only the two paragraphs that precede it.  The rest of it takes the players as they are.