Opponent roster losses

[bennyl08]

Texas Tech: I can't find a game-by-game starting list and don't care to individually tally. From their season's end depth chart, they are losing starting RT and backup LG, starter and backup WR, starting NT, 3 starting LB'ers and a backup (from their chart looks to be a 3-4), place kicker, both holders, and both backup return men.

This translates to losing 0% of rushing and passing stats. Lose about 21% of receptions, 20% of yards, and 25% of td's. They lose 25% of tackles, 22.5% of TFL, 12% of sacks, 17% of INT's, 5.6% of PBU's, 25% of qbh's, and 22% of fumble recoveries. They lose 100% of FG's, and they had two kick off people, losing by far their best kickoff person.

Overall, their biggest loss is probably in the kicking game. They lose some depth/experience/leadership at LB, but overall, no debilitating statistical losses.

Texas A&M: Losing starting LT (42 career starts), both LG's (50 combined starts), backup center/guard (3 career starts), starting TE(6), and receiver(21), with an early declaree RB (1). On defense, starting DT(11), both SLB's(18), backup WLB (2), boundary corner (34), and both starting safeties (37).

This totals: 19% carries, 29% rush yards, 35% rush td's, 22% receptions, 19% of yards, 18% of td's.
On defense, 32.5% of tackles (top 3 overall), 22% of TFL's, 14% of sacks, 20% ints, 43% pbu's, 22.6% qbh's, 25% of fumble recoveries, 33% of blocked kicks.

They lose a lot on the OL this year, but return quarterback and plenty of receiving targets. They also lose some valuable production in the running game, but nothing their offense can't overcome. On defense, most of their losses come in the back end, with their biggest disruptors returning.

Tennessee: They lose their starting RT (6 games started this year) and backup rb on offense (10 games career starts). On defense, their starting DT (20), CB (37), MLB (43), and also punter (27).

This combines for minimal loss on offense which isn't worth the time to calculate. On defense, 20% tackles, 19% TFL, 11.4% sacks, 31% int's, 25.5% pbu's, 25% qbh's.

Overall, they lose 3 very experienced players and leaders on defense, but not much else.

[MissippHog]

Texas Tech:
This translates.......They lose 25% of tackles, 22.5% of TFL, 12% of sacks, 17% of INT's, 5.6% of PBU's, 25% of qbh's, and 22% of fumble recoveries. They lose 100% of FG's, and they had two kick off people, losing by far their best kickoff person.

What is that, about 10 tackles?  After watching our game against them they couldn't have had more than 40 tackles all year.

[presidenthog]

Will you be doing this for all opponents?

[clew]

Texas Tech: I can't find a game-by-game starting list and don't care to individually tally. From their season's end depth chart, they are losing starting RT and backup LG, starter and backup WR, starting NT, 3 starting LB'ers and a backup (from their chart looks to be a 3-4), place kicker, both holders, and both backup return men.

This translates to losing 0% of rushing and passing stats. Lose about 21% of receptions, 20% of yards, and 25% of td's. They lose 25% of tackles, 22.5% of TFL, 12% of sacks, 17% of INT's, 5.6% of PBU's, 25% of qbh's, and 22% of fumble recoveries. They lose 100% of FG's, and they had two kick off people, losing by far their best kickoff person.

Overall, their biggest loss is probably in the kicking game. They lose some depth/experience/leadership at LB, but overall, no debilitating statistical losses.

3 starting linebackers and a nose tackler...against a team that excels in the run game.  that could be statistically significant.  good post, benny.

[razorjack12]

Returning starters for all Power 5 schools.

http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2015/JAN15/DBJan02.html

[bennyl08]

Alabama: Loses all 3 starting WR's including a heisman finalist. Loses starting LG, RG, and RT. Starting TE,  both FB's, QB, and RB. Literally only return LT and center as starters on offense. On defense, backup NT, starting MLB and Jack, and both starting safeties and primary backup. Also a departing WR was the primary PR and KR.

This means losing 52% of carries, 50% of yards, and 51.4% of rushing tds. Lose 89.6% of passing yards, 87.5% of passing td's, etc... 73% of receptions, 72.6% of yards, and 78% of td's. On defense, 35.5% of tackles, 28% of TFL's, 28% of sacks, 45.5% of int's, 33% of pbu's, 26.4% of qbh's, 22% of fumble recoveries and 100% of safeties. 65% of PR yards and 76% of punt returns. 82% of KR's and 90% of KR yards.

Their offense will be shot next season. Yes, Derrick Henry is a beast at RB, and Black will be pretty good at WR, but there is little returning to protect whoever their new qb is and few experienced players to throw to. By necessity I imagine they will look more like the offenses of old for them. On defense, they don't lose too much, but the back end of their defense will take some big hits, and their best pass rusher is gone.

Missouri: Lose starting LT, 3rd string C, starting RB (though their backup started some and had more yards), and 3 starting WR's and a backup. On defense, both starting DE's, starter and backup at DT, starter and backup at SS. They lose their holder, punter, and primary returner on special teams.

33% of rushes, 37% of yards, 23.5% of td's. 79.6% of receptions, 86% of yards, and 96% of td's. 36% of tackles, 61.4% of TFL's, 73% of sacks, 50% of ints, 18% of pbu's, 29.5% of passes defended, 61% of qbh's, 54% of fumbles recovered, 27% of forced fumbles, and 100% of blocks. 100% of PR's and yards, and 79% of KR yards (with combined 3 return td's, and a solid 10 yards/return more than the next guy).

They lose significant production at rb, but nothing terrible. However, their receiving corp will be almost non-existent. That was also true of last year. It will be hard replacing almost all their production their two years in a row. They also lose almost all of their impact defenders, which is also eerily similar to last year and will be even harder to replace.

LSU: Lose starting LT(24), both backup LG's (5), and both RG's(1, apparently only started last game of season for the starter and backup is counted in the LG tally). Lose backup TE(4), RB's (, and starting FB (16). They lose both starting DE's(47), backup mike(19, started and eventually replaced by younger) and starting will (11), as well as a starting corner (8?) and safety(20).

This amounts to 32.5% of rushes, 35% of yards, 36% of td's. 19% of receptions, 11.1% of yards, and 6% of td's.
On defense, 41% of tackles, 43.4% tfls, 58% of sacks, 33% of int's, 46.5% of pbu's, 43% of qbh's, 33% of fumble recoveries, 70% of forced fumbles.

On offense, they lose some production at rb, but return their freshmen phenom. They lose some along the OL, but mostly stay intact a year after being gutted. On defense, they lose significant production across the board, but nothing debilitating. In particular, they lose a lot in the way of pass rush which they were weak to begin with.

[Qadi999]

Texas Tech: I can't find a game-by-game starting list and don't care to individually tally. From their season's end depth chart, they are losing starting RT and backup LG, starter and backup WR, starting NT, 3 starting LB'ers and a backup (from their chart looks to be a 3-4), place kicker, both holders, and both backup return men.

This translates to losing 0% of rushing and passing stats. Lose about 21% of receptions, 20% of yards, and 25% of td's. They lose 25% of tackles, 22.5% of TFL, 12% of sacks, 17% of INT's, 5.6% of PBU's, 25% of qbh's, and 22% of fumble recoveries. They lose 100% of FG's, and they had two kick off people, losing by far their best kickoff person.

Overall, their biggest loss is probably in the kicking game. They lose some depth/experience/leadership at LB, but overall, no debilitating statistical losses.

Texas A&M: Losing starting LT (42 career starts), both LG's (50 combined starts), backup center/guard (3 career starts), starting TE(6), and receiver(21), with an early declaree RB (1). On defense, starting DT(11), both SLB's(18), backup WLB (2), boundary corner (34), and both starting safeties (37).

This totals: 19% carries, 29% rush yards, 35% rush td's, 22% receptions, 19% of yards, 18% of td's.
On defense, 32.5% of tackles (top 3 overall), 22% of TFL's, 14% of sacks, 20% ints, 43% pbu's, 22.6% qbh's, 25% of fumble recoveries, 33% of blocked kicks.

They lose a lot on the OL this year, but return quarterback and plenty of receiving targets. They also lose some valuable production in the running game, but nothing their offense can't overcome. On defense, most of their losses come in the back end, with their biggest disruptors returning.

Tennessee: They lose their starting RT (6 games started this year) and backup rb on offense (10 games career starts). On defense, their starting DT (20), CB (37), MLB (43), and also punter (27).

This combines for minimal loss on offense which isn't worth the time to calculate. On defense, 20% tackles, 19% TFL, 11.4% sacks, 31% int's, 25.5% pbu's, 25% qbh's.

Overall, they lose 3 very experienced players and leaders on defense, but not much else.

What is the % of losses for the hogs on D .. would say we lost 50 % of our tackling .

[ZERO]

I don't think the kicking game for Texas Tech will be of any consequence. They're not losing a Hocker-type, so it's not like they're going to be missing someone who can bang out 50+ yard FGs on command and are looking at a steep drop off. I'm sure they'll replace their guys with others about equally as good. They're getting an upgrade at QB, to boot. All in all, with their system, they'll probably be a little better on offense. However, those are huge defensive losses to a team that already had a dogcrap defense to begin with on a 4-win team. We get 'em at home on top of all of that. Texas Tech is definitely a game we shouldn't be too worried about.


Also, Alabama's offensive losses are interesting. Bama reels in the top recruiting class every single year, so there's no doubt a WR who will step up and be productive. But the lack of experience at both QB and WR should severely hinder them, although their run game will be good. Their defense will still be really good, but it sounds like this is going to be the worst year for Alabama since Saban arrived. Of course, they're still probably a 9 or 10 win team. It just sucks that we don't get them at home this go around, or I'd actually say we had a good chance of winning.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

What is the % of losses for the hogs on D .. would say we lost 50 % of our tackling .

390 of 844 total tackles for 46.2%.

[Qadi999]

390 of 844 total tackles for 46.2%.

hope some guys step up to replace those losses.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

hope some guys step up to replace those losses.

242 of those came from three players.

[ZERO]

Yeah, I guess I've been avoiding thinking about it and didn't realize it was quite that bad. Just south of 50%? I don't see how the defense doesn't take a step back, realistically. Hopefully it won't be a gigantic step.

Luckily, our defense was surprisingly good and blindsided us all last year, so it doesn't need to be every bit as good as it was in '14. We shut out two conference teams, and held two more to 14 and 17. And they were all good teams. As long as our offense improves, which it absolutely should, then I think we can maybe offset the defensive losses.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Yeah, I guess I've been avoiding thinking about it and didn't realize it was quite that bad. Just south of 50%? I don't see how the defense doesn't take a step back, realistically. Hopefully it won't be a gigantic step.

Luckily, our defense was surprisingly good and blindsided us all last year, so it doesn't need to be every bit as good as it was in '14. We shut out two conference teams, and held two more to 14 and 17. And they were all good teams. As long as our offense improves, which it absolutely should, then I think we can maybe offset the defensive losses.

The bright side is that 2 of those players didn't exactly have what could be called banner seasons in 2013 prior to emerging as playmakers in 2014. It isn't at all impossible that we have more than three emerge that may pick up the slack overall. This defense can be just as good as a unit if a lot of young players step up and take on their share of the load of responsibility. I do expect a drop off in production from last season, but not significantly so, I hope.

[ZERO]

That's the thing with recruiting. You can never truly know who's going to reload and who's going to regress. There are always surprises, both good and bad. But going on an informed guess, my opinion would be that our defensive coaching is about as good as we could hope (for once), but I wouldn't just expect our backups to jump right in and produce just as well without any experience. I'm hoping for the best, but prepared for the worst.

On the other hand, all signs point to our skill players being remarkably improved. We return a fifth year QB who has improved every year noticeably and should do so once again. We return both heralded 1,000 yard rushing RBs with another year of experience. Our WR was by far our weakest spot, and we get the help of a 4* JUCO player, plus JoJo comes out of redshirting. There has to be at least SOME improvement there. Losing Derby at TE sucks, but we're bringing back Henry and pulled in possibly the best TE haul in the nation this class, so I expect some help there. I'm pretty reasonably excited for 2015.

[bennyl08]

What is the % of losses for the hogs on D .. would say we lost 50 % of our tackling .

I'll get there. Still have 3 more SEC opponents to do first. This takes a bit of time and I'm pretty busy atm. Muskugee gave a good answer.

[Steef]

Nice thread, Ben. Good work.

[bennyl08]

Auburn: Losing starting center, RG. Starting TE and HB, quarterback, both runningbacks, their top WR, and a backup WR. On defense, Starting DT and both backups, backup DE, starting STAR position, also starting CB and S and backup cb. Losing long snapper and primary returners.

This means losing 87% of carries, 86% of rushing yards, and 87.5% of td's. 85% of passing yards, 87% of passing td's, and 88% of attempts. 53% of receptions, 55% of yards, and 56.5% of td's. 28% of tackles, 26% of TFLs, 28.6% of sacks, 45.5% of INT's, 43.5% of pbu's, 23% of qbh's, 22.5% of ff's, 20% of fr's, 100% of blocked kicks. 63% of KR's, 66.6% of KR yards, 88% or PR's and 90% of PR yards with both PR touchdowns gone (no KR td's scored).

Almost their entire running game is gone. Their passing game is similar, but Johnson looked pretty good vs us. Receiving numbers are substantially down, but that isn't the biggest part of their game to begin with. They don't lose much up front, but their secondary will have a lot of work to replace.

Miss St.: Losing 2 of their starting WR's (46), LT (41), both C's (43), RG(22), starting and backup TE(26), and top 2 running backs(16). Both starting DT's(77) and a backup(3) along with starting DE(23), 2 starting LB's(67) and a backup(1), and a starting cb(24) and s(15).

41% rushing attempts, 47% of yards, 41% of td's. 41% of receptions, 39% of yards, 22.6% td's. On defense: 37% tackles, 49% of tfl's, 55.5% of sacks, 40.5% of qbh's, 25% of int's, 34% of pbu's, 57% of fumble recoveries, 58% of forced fumbles, 50% of blocked kicks.

Worse than the stats, look at the amount of starts that this team is losing. That is a lot of experience and leadership. They lose a lot in the run game, and while they lose a good chunk in the receiving, not much is lost in td's and they return their best playmakers. Here, they lose a lot more up front than they do in the back end of their defense.

ole miss: On offense, they lose their starting qb(38), and a backup TE(5). On defense, 2 backup DT(29)'s and a backup DE, 2 starting LB'ers (30) and a backup(6), both field corners(34) and their free safety(30). Also their long snapper.

This totals to most of their passing stats (we got a good look at their backups in our game). On defense, 37% of tackles, 38% of tfls, 27% of sacks, 21% of qbh's, 68% of INT's, (2 players made up nealy 60% of team's total), 42.5% of pbu's, 20% of fr's, 18% of ff's.

They don't lose much. They lose by far their best playmaker and probably a first round safety IMO in the secondary, and their 3rd year starting qb. However, the new guys will be surrounded by experience. Granted, that experience was blasted 30-0 last year...

[bennyl08]

Arkansas: We lose our starting RT (29), backup LT(2@TE) and RG(3), FB (6), third string back(1) and TE (8, w/1 at qb) on offense. On defense, we lose our starting DE(38) and DT(17), 2 starting LB'ers (27), FS (26), NB(29), LS, and punter. No data on starts for ST.

We lose 5% of carries, 7% of yards (a good chunk from Irwin-Hill), 6.5% of td's. (43%, 49%, 45% gone if JWill declared). 16% of receptions, 15% of yards, 19% of td's (1 from our LS). On defense, we lose 46% of tackles, 55% of tfls, 56% of sacks, 53% of qbh's, 42% of int's, 40% of pbu's, 50% of fumbles recovered, 36% of forced fumbles.

Our offense barely loses anything. On defense, we lose a large chunk of stats across the entire board. Will be tough to replace all of that.

[TheGrove68]

Alabama: Loses all 3 starting WR's including a heisman finalist. Loses starting LG, RG, and RT. Starting TE,  both FB's, QB, and RB. Literally only return LT and center as starters on offense. On defense, backup NT, starting MLB and Jack, and both starting safeties and primary backup. Also a departing WR was the primary PR and KR.

This means losing 52% of carries, 50% of yards, and 51.4% of rushing tds. Lose 89.6% of passing yards, 87.5% of passing td's, etc... 73% of receptions, 72.6% of yards, and 78% of td's. On defense, 35.5% of tackles, 28% of TFL's, 28% of sacks, 45.5% of int's, 33% of pbu's, 26.4% of qbh's, 22% of fumble recoveries and 100% of safeties. 65% of PR yards and 76% of punt returns. 82% of KR's and 90% of KR yards.

Their offense will be shot next season. Yes, Derrick Henry is a beast at RB, and Black will be pretty good at WR, but there is little returning to protect whoever their new qb is and few experienced players to throw to. By necessity I imagine they will look more like the offenses of old for them. On defense, they don't lose too much, but the back end of their defense will take some big hits, and their best pass rusher is gone.

Missouri: Lose starting LT, 3rd string C, starting RB (though their backup started some and had more yards), and 3 starting WR's and a backup. On defense, both starting DE's, starter and backup at DT, starter and backup at SS. They lose their holder, punter, and primary returner on special teams.

33% of rushes, 37% of yards, 23.5% of td's. 79.6% of receptions, 86% of yards, and 96% of td's. 36% of tackles, 61.4% of TFL's, 73% of sacks, 50% of ints, 18% of pbu's, 29.5% of passes defended, 61% of qbh's, 54% of fumbles recovered, 27% of forced fumbles, and 100% of blocks. 100% of PR's and yards, and 79% of KR yards (with combined 3 return td's, and a solid 10 yards/return more than the next guy).

They lose significant production at rb, but nothing terrible. However, their receiving corp will be almost non-existent. That was also true of last year. It will be hard replacing almost all their production their two years in a row. They also lose almost all of their impact defenders, which is also eerily similar to last year and will be even harder to replace.

LSU: Lose starting LT(24), both backup LG's (5), and both RG's(1, apparently only started last game of season for the starter and backup is counted in the LG tally). Lose backup TE(4), RB's (, and starting FB (16). They lose both starting DE's(47), backup mike(19, started and eventually replaced by younger) and starting will (11), as well as a starting corner (8?) and safety(20).

This amounts to 32.5% of rushes, 35% of yards, 36% of td's. 19% of receptions, 11.1% of yards, and 6% of td's.
On defense, 41% of tackles, 43.4% tfls, 58% of sacks, 33% of int's, 46.5% of pbu's, 43% of qbh's, 33% of fumble recoveries, 70% of forced fumbles.

On offense, they lose some production at rb, but return their freshmen phenom. They lose some along the OL, but mostly stay intact a year after being gutted. On defense, they lose significant production across the board, but nothing debilitating. In particular, they lose a lot in the way of pass rush which they were weak to begin with.

Concerning Mizzou On the DL we return Brantley 54 tackles and Augusta 23 tackles....both of their production values where similar to the starters Hoch 35 tackles and Vincent 43 tackles in fact Brantley was our best DT as a back up. We return our whole LB corps,and both CB,if we get some DE and Saftey production we should be stout on DEF. again.  Returning 4 OL a RB and QB on offense should be a solid core. We will plug in WR and get production,it won't be great but enough to move the chains.

[Arthur pigby sellers.]

Yeah we can continue to hope for similar success on defense but reality is we will probably take a step back.  I know I'm beating a dead horse, but for selfish reasons I really wanted Philon to stay.  We would at least have one preseason All SEC defensive player to anchor the defense. 

[bennyl08]

Concerning Mizzou On the DL we return Brantley 54 tackles and Augusta 23 tackles....both of their production values where similar to the starters Hoch 35 tackles and Vincent 43 tackles in fact Brantley was our best DT as a back up. We return our whole LB corps,and both CB,if we get some DE and Saftey production we should be stout on DEF. again.  Returning 4 OL a RB and QB on offense should be a solid core. We will plug in WR and get production,it won't be great but enough to move the chains.

I know. This thread is about what is lost. Admittedly, I didn't do as good a job as years past in identifying key players. For example, there's a big difference in losing half your sacks because one player left, or half your sacks because all but a few left. It's a lot easier to replace those one or two sack guys than it is a 9 or 10 sack guy.

As a general rule, it seems that most teams lose about 20-30% or so of production, which makes sense given the number of seniors who start. Anything less than 20% loss should be considered high retention. 30-40% loss will be felt, but nothing that can't be overcome. 50-60% loss is a lot and is quite tough to overcome. >75% and that is pretty much devastation. Rebuilding that position more than reloading.

For example, Arkansas losing 40+% had JWill left would not have been a death sentence to the running game. We still returned Collins and have some guys who can come in. However, it would not be easy to replace him. Whereas, we are losing >50% in our behind the lines plays, but we can overcome that due to an incredible amount of depth and talent. Petrino's last gift so to speak. Not that there won't be any dropoff because of course their will be, but I feel better about replacing 56% of our sacks than I would 43% of our carries.