How each competitor can win the 2-seed

[Fayettechill14]

The 2-seed in the SEC Tournament should be our goal. Texas A&M (10-4), Ole Miss (10-4), and LSU (8-6) are all in the running for it. Getting either the 2 or the 3 is important because the 2/3 matchup would be opposite Kentucky in the bracket.

Here is each team's path to the 2-seed:

Arkansas: The Hogs have second place right now and get Texas A&M and LSU at home. They need:
-Beat Texas A&M and LSU. Both teams are eliminated with a loss to Arkansas.
-Beat South Carolina on the road OR Ole Miss loses one more game (best chance: @LSU)
-Losing to Kentucky is fine in this scenario

Ole Miss: The Rebels are one game back of the Hogs with the season split. They need:
-Arkansas loses two more times (at Kentucky and one other one), but beats Texas A&M
-Ole Miss wins out, which includes beating Georgia at home and LSU in Baton Rouge

Texas A&M: The Ags are tied with the Rebels but Ole Miss has the tiebreaker. They need:
-Beat Arkansas in Fayetteville
-Win out, and Ole Miss needs to lose one more game, otherwise it's a three-way tie.

LSU: At 8-6, the Tigers are a long shot, but it's possible. They need:
-Win out, including wins over Ole Miss at home and at Arkansas
-Arkansas beats Texas A&M but also loses to Kentucky and South Carolina
-Ole Miss also loses to Georgia and one other game (most likely: @Alabama)
-Texas A&M loses at Arkansas, at Florida, and at home to EITHER Auburn or Alabama

Beating Texas A&M is a really big step toward securing that 2-seed. It basically eliminates Texas A&M unless we lose out after that.

[Razor6]

Hoping for a two seed.  Thank you for the break down!

It's fun actually caring about seeding!  I'm even anticipating our NCAA slot as well! 

Haven't cared in years!

[JIHawg]

Good work F14.

[ListenHereMister]

Awesome job.  Can yopu update this again after the midweek games, and then after Sat games?

[Thepigdoctor]

+1 Chill, just saved me the time of posting this. Thanks for all your work this season with rpi and standings updates.

[Hoggish1]

The No. 2 seed gets done with the 8th consecutive strong D performance.

[Letsroll1200]

The 2-seed in the SEC Tournament should be our goal. Texas A&M (10-4), Ole Miss (10-4), and LSU (8-6) are all in the running for it. Getting either the 2 or the 3 is important because the 2/3 matchup would be opposite Kentucky in the bracket.

Here is each team's path to the 2-seed:

Arkansas: The Hogs have second place right now and get Texas A&M and LSU at home. They need:
-Beat Texas A&M and LSU. Both teams are eliminated with a loss to Arkansas.
-Beat South Carolina on the road OR Ole Miss loses one more game (best chance: @LSU)
-Losing to Kentucky is fine in this scenario

Ole Miss: The Rebels are one game back of the Hogs with the season split. They need:
-Arkansas loses two more times (at Kentucky and one other one), but beats Texas A&M
-Ole Miss wins out, which includes beating Georgia at home and LSU in Baton Rouge

Texas A&M: The Ags are tied with the Rebels but Ole Miss has the tiebreaker. They need:
-Beat Arkansas in Fayetteville
-Win out, and Ole Miss needs to lose one more game, otherwise it's a three-way tie.

LSU: At 8-6, the Tigers are a long shot, but it's possible. They need:
-Win out, including wins over Ole Miss at home and at Arkansas
-Arkansas beats Texas A&M but also loses to Kentucky and South Carolina
-Ole Miss also loses to Georgia and one other game (most likely: @Alabama)
-Texas A&M loses at Arkansas, at Florida, and at home to EITHER Auburn or Alabama

Beating Texas A&M is a really big step toward securing that 2-seed. It basically eliminates Texas A&M unless we lose out after that.

We have the toughest schedule of the four teams. We are playing three tournament teams and a never quit, fighting, and physical S. Carolina team on the road. If we go 2-2 that's good, 3-1 would be great and 4-0 we would likely be a 3 seed come tournament time.

Ole Miss has a desperate Georgia team coming to the Tad Pad next week and has LSU on the road. Texas A&M toughest remaking games are the Razorbacks on Tuesday night. I think Tenn. will beat LSU at LSU because the Tigers are the definition of inconsistent play.

The remaining games in league play should be fun to watch. I'm looking forward to the next two weeks of basketball in league play.

[Breems]

Thanks for the analysis. This could be the year we finally win a game in the SECT.

[HotlantaHog]

Thanks for the analysis. This could be the year we finally win a game in the SECT.

Hogs were in the final game not that long ago vs. Georgia -- the year the Tourney was interrupted by a tornado and the finals were played at Georgia Tech ... can't recall the year that was ...

Anyway, the last few years of dismal performance seem like ancient history ...

[b_stackhouse]

Hogs were in the final game not that long ago vs. Georgia -- the year the Tourney was interrupted by a tornado and the finals were played at Georgia Tech ... can't recall the year that was ...

Anyway, the last few years of dismal performance seem like ancient history ...

We had Steven Hill that year. Goes to show how long it's been...

[Karma]

Hogs were in the final game not that long ago vs. Georgia -- the year the Tourney was interrupted by a tornado and the finals were played at Georgia Tech ... can't recall the year that was ...

Anyway, the last few years of dismal performance seem like ancient history ...

That was like 10 years ago.

[dbhog]

That was in 2008.

[WPS501]

Hogs were in the final game not that long ago vs. Georgia -- the year the Tourney was interrupted by a tornado and the finals were played at Georgia Tech ... can't recall the year that was ...

Anyway, the last few years of dismal performance seem like ancient history ...

7 years is not that long?  It's been like 3 or 4 years since we've won an SECt game.

[The Boar War]

7 years is not that long?  It's been like 3 or 4 years since we've won an SECt game.

We haven't won a game since 2008.

[MikePiazza]

7 years is not that long?  It's been like 3 or 4 years since we've won an SECt game.

It's actually been since that tournament since the Hogs won a SECT game. The Steven Hill turnaround was the last time a Hog team won in the SECT.

[latrops]

It's actually been since that tournament since the Hogs won a SECT game. The Steven Hill turnaround was the last time a Hog team won in the SECT.

That is unbelievable.  Pel had some lousy teams, but even lousy teams sometimes win a game in the conference tournament.  The first couple of rounds are mostly made up of bad to mediocre teams.  Mike's teams haven't been that bad, either.  Last year's SC loss was brutal.  No way we should have lost that one.  It doesn't even matter if we win anything in the SECT this year, but just to finally have some success there I hope we win at least one.

[All Bleed Red]

Definitely agree that #2 seed is our goal, but it seems to me that #3 seed for SEC tournament is almost as good?  If I read it right doesn't a #3 seed still get 2 byes and still land opposite Kentucky on the bracket?  So worse case we'd have to play a #6 seed instead of a #7, which right now as it stands would be Georgia instead of Alabama.  That'll likely move around before tourney time but I'm wondering if I'm missing something?

http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2014/1009/2015%20SEC%20Basketball%20Tournament%20Bracket.pdf

[MikePiazza]

That is unbelievable.  Pel had some lousy teams, but even lousy teams sometimes win a game in the conference tournament.  The first couple of rounds are mostly made up of bad to mediocre teams.  Mike's teams haven't been that bad, either.  Last year's SC loss was brutal.  No way we should have lost that one.  It doesn't even matter if we win anything in the SECT this year, but just to finally have some success there I hope we win at least one.

Nolan won at least one game in the SECT every year until 1997, when he got the shaft from one Andre Patillo in Memphis.

http://www.apnewsarchive.com/1997/No-24-Georgia-65-Arkansas-63/id-320f859c62e807f53522ac473ee6d383

[gmarv]

The 2-seed in the SEC Tournament should be our goal. Texas A&M (10-4), Ole Miss (10-4), and LSU (8-6) are all in the running for it. Getting either the 2 or the 3 is important because the 2/3 matchup would be opposite Kentucky in the bracket.

Here is each team's path to the 2-seed:

Arkansas: The Hogs have second place right now and get Texas A&M and LSU at home. They need:
-Beat Texas A&M and LSU. Both teams are eliminated with a loss to Arkansas.
-Beat South Carolina on the road OR Ole Miss loses one more game (best chance: @LSU)
-Losing to Kentucky is fine in this scenario

Ole Miss: The Rebels are one game back of the Hogs with the season split. They need:
-Arkansas loses two more times (at Kentucky and one other one), but beats Texas A&M
-Ole Miss wins out, which includes beating Georgia at home and LSU in Baton Rouge

Texas A&M: The Ags are tied with the Rebels but Ole Miss has the tiebreaker. They need:
-Beat Arkansas in Fayetteville
-Win out, and Ole Miss needs to lose one more game, otherwise it's a three-way tie.

LSU: At 8-6, the Tigers are a long shot, but it's possible. They need:
-Win out, including wins over Ole Miss at home and at Arkansas
-Arkansas beats Texas A&M but also loses to Kentucky and South Carolina
-Ole Miss also loses to Georgia and one other game (most likely: @Alabama)
-Texas A&M loses at Arkansas, at Florida, and at home to EITHER Auburn or Alabama

Beating Texas A&M is a really big step toward securing that 2-seed. It basically eliminates Texas A&M unless we lose out after that.

great stuff.

[GuvHog]

Nolan won at least one game in the SECT every year until 1997, when he got the shaft from one Andre Patillo in Memphis.

http://www.apnewsarchive.com/1997/No-24-Georgia-65-Arkansas-63/id-320f859c62e807f53522ac473ee6d383

Didn't Andre' Patillo get called on the carpet by the SEC Commissioner for pulling that stunt???

[Fayettechill14]

Road to the 2-seed just got a LOT easier. Basically, Arkansas probably guaranteed at least a 3 with that win. Here's how it looks:

Arkansas (12-3): in the best position, but with the toughest remaining schedule. Two ways to win the 2
Assuming a loss at Kentucky...
-Win at South Carolina and vs. LSU. That's it. Even if Ole Miss wins out to force a tie Arkansas' win over LSU (highest ranked opponent where records differ: Ole Miss lost to LSU) breaks the tie.
-If Arkansas loses to South Carolina, the hard way is that Ole Miss must also lose once, either vs. Georgia or at LSU.

Ole Miss (10-4): 1.5 games back of Arkansas with a trip to Baton Rouge still looming, Ole Miss needs help.
-If Ole Miss wins out, Arkansas must lose to Kentucky and EITHER South Carolina or LSU. They can't finish tied because Arkansas will win the tiebreaker if it upsets Kentucky and loses to LSU, or (more likely) loses to Kentucky but beats LSU.
-If Ole Miss loses any remaining games (most likely: @LSU), then Arkansas will have to lose out. Arkansas can also win the tiebreaker if it goes to 6th-place Georgia, since Ole Miss lost to Georgia in Athens.
Basically, Ole Miss loses every tiebreaker against Arkansas, with one exception: if Arkansas loses to Kentucky and LSU but beats South Carolina, and Ole Miss beats LSU but loses another game, Ole Midd wins the tiebreaker at 13-5 by virtue of a better record against LSU (1-1 vs. 0-1).

Texas A&M (10-5): the Aggies need a ton of help, but they aren't mathematically out of it. They lose all tiebreakers to both Arkansas and Ole Miss thanks to head-to-head losses.
A&M must: win out. A trip to Florida is sandwiched by easy home games against Vanderbilt and Auburn, so this part is very possible.
Arkansas must: lose out. Technically possible.
Ole Miss must: lose at least 2 of last 4. The game at LSU seems likely, but that means Ole Miss also has to lose either vs. Georgia or at Alabama.

LSU (9-6): I'll eat my hat if this happens. LSU has to win out, and Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M all have to lose out.

Georgia was mathematically eliminated on Tuesday. Three games back with three left and no way to trump Arkansas, they can't get 2nd.

[12247]

Mind over Matter.  Being the 2 seed versus the 3 seed just feels better mentally.  Hey we are the best team right behind Ky which we beat the only time we had a chance, right??

[rzrbk4life]

Good stuff. Thanks Fayettechill

[maddoghog]

Nolan won at least one game in the SECT every year until 1997, when he got the shaft from one Andre Patillo in Memphis.

http://www.apnewsarchive.com/1997/No-24-Georgia-65-Arkansas-63/id-320f859c62e807f53522ac473ee6d383

Ugh!  You just had to bring THAT game up!  ha ha  I was at that game.....I just sat there stunned when it happend!

[gmarv]

Good stuff. Thanks Fayettechill

my sentiments exactly.
thanks fayettechill.

[RyeHogFan]

Definitely agree that #2 seed is our goal, but it seems to me that #3 seed for SEC tournament is almost as good?  If I read it right doesn't a #3 seed still get 2 byes and still land opposite Kentucky on the bracket?  So worse case we'd have to play a #6 seed instead of a #7, which right now as it stands would be Georgia instead of Alabama.  That'll likely move around before tourney time but I'm wondering if I'm missing something?

http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2014/1009/2015%20SEC%20Basketball%20Tournament%20Bracket.pdf

As far as the SEC Tourney goes, 2 or 3 doesn't matter. But what does matter is that if we finish up in 3rd place, that will be because we  faltered down the stretch against SCAR and/or LSU. That will mean a lower seed in the NCAAs.

[Breems]

Ole Miss is down 11 to Georgia right now at home.

[Breems]

Ole Miss is down 11 to Georgia right now at home.

Looks like they're going to lose @LSU as well.