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Author Topic: Portis Draft Stock  (Read 2911 times)

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-Blu

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Portis Draft Stock
« on: December 19, 2014, 06:48:34 pm »

So.... in the updated mock draft for www.nbadraft.net, Portis went from being a lottery pick in this year's draft to late first round pick of next year's draft all in a weeks time.  That's really odd.  I don't think I ever seen someone's status change that much in a short time, especially when the player is coming off of 2 really good games.  I wonder if some information leaked somewhere that he was leaning towards staying another year, because I also noticed Dudley was discussing Portis and Qualls, and said some people may be surprised by their decision at the end of the year.

Also, in CMA's SEMO preview, he kinda addressed Bobby's situation with being a draft prospect, and he said, Bobby is just enjoying being a college student and trying to have the best GPA on the team.
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Fayettechill14

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2014, 06:49:48 pm »

If I would be "surprised" by Portis' AND Qualls' decisions, then that means Portis is staying and Qualls going....
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-Blu

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #2 on: December 19, 2014, 06:58:06 pm »

If I would be "surprised" by Portis' AND Qualls' decisions, then that means Portis is staying and Qualls going....

Qualls is completely off of nbadraft.net's list this week.  Was a second rounder in 2016 last week. 

On draftexpress.com, Portis has dropped to #21 in 2015 draft.  Kingsley #37 in 2016, Qualls #38 in 2016.
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Danny J

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #3 on: December 19, 2014, 08:34:16 pm »

Would be really nice to see Portis back again next year especially with the returning players.
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alaback

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #4 on: December 19, 2014, 09:50:24 pm »

Interesting development to say the least.  He's grading out as 33rd best prospect in 2015 which puts him in the 2nd round.

http://www.nbadraft.net/ranking/bigboard

Looks like the scouts need to see some development in his back to the basket game. 
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jackflash

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #5 on: December 19, 2014, 09:54:53 pm »

I don't believe anything the NBA or scouts say. They do a great job of poor mouthing of who their interested in.  Especially if they don't have a top 10 pick
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daprospecta

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #6 on: December 19, 2014, 10:35:12 pm »

6'10 guy that can move the way he moves and has a killer jump shot will not make it out of the lottery. It's not happening people.  No matter how many links you post that says otherwise.  If he continues his pace on the year, he's gone.  Glad Moses will still be here to provide size.
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mbgrulz

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #7 on: December 19, 2014, 11:20:33 pm »

I'd be surprised if Portis is a lotto pick. Love, love, love him, but he's got some holes in his game. He's not the most fluid player and he lacks upper echelon athleticism. Not saying he won't get drafted, but doubting he is a lottery pick.

Qualls has 0 chance of getting drafted. The NBA likes potential, but there is a prerequisite level of skill needed. Qualls can't handle the ball to save his life. He is a questionable shooter and has shown a tendency to disappear for games at a time.
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-Blu

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #8 on: December 19, 2014, 11:30:52 pm »

6'10 guy that can move the way he moves and has a killer jump shot will not make it out of the lottery. It's not happening people.  No matter how many links you post that says otherwise.  If he continues his pace on the year, he's gone.  Glad Moses will still be here to provide size.

I'm with you, these NBA scouts no nothing!  Portis for #1 pick 2015!

In all seriousness I have no idea why his stock dropped so quickly.... I always thought he'd be a borderline lottery pick this year.  It could have nothing to do with him, but more of the guys ahead of him.  This is the deepest draft for front court players I've seen in recent memory.  You got 8 guys that are either PF or C projected in the lottery.
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Beaverfever

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #9 on: December 19, 2014, 11:59:36 pm »

Qualls is completely off of nbadraft.net's list this week.  Was a second rounder in 2016 last week. 

On draftexpress.com, Portis has dropped to #21 in 2015 draft.  Kingsley #37 in 2016, Qualls #38 in 2016.
I bet Kingsley would make a hell of a college player. 
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Dominicanhog

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #10 on: December 20, 2014, 12:06:56 am »

Erie, what's your thoughts on this?
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The_Iceman

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #11 on: December 20, 2014, 08:28:42 am »

The 2016 isnt nearly as strong as a draft as 2015. Might be something Portis should consider.
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latrops

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #12 on: December 20, 2014, 08:52:07 am »

Doesn't surprise me much at this point.  I imagine there could be quite a bit of fluctuation, especially early in the season.  They are probably wanting Portis to show that he realistically projects as more than a Channing Frye, Matt Bonner, Ryan Anderson type.  Nothing wrong with those guys....you can have a nice, long, lucrative career as a PF that drains threes and gets a few rebounds.  You just may be looking for more upside out of a top 5 pick.
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psooie

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #13 on: December 20, 2014, 09:26:57 am »

Need to think bigger than Portis coming back next season. Dear Santa, Portis needs to stay 2 more years and have monk as a teammate.
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Thepigdoctor

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #14 on: December 20, 2014, 10:06:11 am »

I really like Bobby Knight's review of Portis during the Dayton game. Knowing Bobby is anti NBA, pro college and putting that aside, he made some very good points about why Portis should not only come back, but stay all four years. They discussed the rate of players that come out, fail, then have nothing to fall back on. Make that first $10 mil then in three years be out of the dleague, or finish school, become a complete player, both on and off the court, then go make your $10 mil and if it doesn't work out, you've got a degree and a university behind you. The biggest point he seemed to make was don't sell your future for today, especially for a vicious business like the NBA.

I would never blame a kid for chasing a dream or just the cash, but the current rules are not set up for the players, it's all to make the NBA money. So many young men's lives are ruined by empty promises and projections, along with a poor support system around them, that it's scary the NBA would continue letting this current system stand. I really hope not just for the hogs sake, but for Bobby's as well, that he makes a truly informed decision and is able to realize all of his dreams. 

For the mention of Qualls going pro, I would hate to see that. He is the exact type of player the league chews up and spits out. He needs to stay, get his degree, improve his game as much as possible, then give it a shot. He has a long way to go to be successful in the NBA and that's not a knock against him, I think he's a true diamond in the rough and has improved beyond my wildest expectations; but he is sti far too raw for the NBA.
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Hawg Red

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #15 on: December 20, 2014, 10:30:01 am »

You can get your degree at any point in your life. You have a limited amount of time to play professional basketball. That's not me advocating for Portis to go pro, just a fact. Makes more sense to cash on your basketball years and then get your degree. That should never be a consideration, in my book. You stay for player development, not a degree that can be had when you're done playing ball.
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TheRazorbackGuy

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #16 on: December 20, 2014, 10:54:58 am »

You can get your degree at any point in your life. You have a limited amount of time to play professional basketball. That's not me advocating for Portis to go pro, just a fact. Makes more sense to cash on your basketball years and then get your degree. That should never be a consideration, in my book. You stay for player development, not a degree that can be had when you're done playing ball.

+1 Agree HawgRed! You go to college to get a career. If that career field comes before you graduate then leaving should be considered.
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Hawg Red

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #17 on: December 20, 2014, 11:28:13 am »

I also don't really care for this "nothing to fall back on" BS. What a load. If these guys have nothing to fall back on, that's their own fault. And I'm not even talking about money here. There's connections, life experience, etc. There's all kinds of things these guys could do. Does Pat Bradley have a college degree? He might now, but he played for Nolan, so there's a pretty good chance he never graduated. That didn't stop him from landing a job when he decided it was time to quit playing ball for a living. The problem is that these guys take opportunities away from themselves and they have no one to blame but themselves. Staying in school the full 4 years isn't likely to change anything for people like that.

The benefits from being a college basketball player at the high D1 level and being a professional basketball are so far-reaching it isn't even funny. The problem is that some of these kids just don't "get it." The ones that do will always have something to fall back on, regardless of if they got their degree or not. They're the ones that will either find something they can do outside of basketball or happily go back and get that degree to make that happen. The ones that don't are the ones that would end up flat broke even if they had made 100 million in the NBA.
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HogsonHicks

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #18 on: December 20, 2014, 11:38:37 am »

Doesn't surprise me much at this point.  I imagine there could be quite a bit of fluctuation, especially early in the season.  They are probably wanting Portis to show that he realistically projects as more than a Channing Frye, Matt Bonner, Ryan Anderson type.  Nothing wrong with those guys....you can have a nice, long, lucrative career as a PF that drains threes and gets a few rebounds.  You just may be looking for more upside out of a top 5 pick.

This. He's really shown a great deal of development, but post offense, interior defense and rebounding need some development. He's a NBA novelty PF right now.
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TheRazorbackGuy

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #19 on: December 20, 2014, 11:47:15 am »

I also don't really care for this "nothing to fall back on" BS. What a load. If these guys have nothing to fall back on, that's their own fault. And I'm not even talking about money here. There's connections, life experience, etc. There's all kinds of things these guys could do. Does Pat Bradley have a college degree? He might now, but he played for Nolan, so there's a pretty good chance he never graduated. That didn't stop him from landing a job when he decided it was time to quit playing ball for a living. The problem is that these guys take opportunities away from themselves and they have no one to blame but themselves. Staying in school the full 4 years isn't likely to change anything for people like that.

The benefits from being a college basketball player at the high D1 level and being a professional basketball are so far-reaching it isn't even funny. The problem is that some of these kids just don't "get it." The ones that do will always have something to fall back on, regardless of if they got their degree or not. They're the ones that will either find something they can do outside of basketball or happily go back and get that degree to make that happen. The ones that don't are the ones that would end up flat broke even if they had made 100 million in the NBA.

HawgRed is refering to Antwan Walker +1 HawgRed!
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ErieHog

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #20 on: December 20, 2014, 11:59:28 am »

Erie, what's your thoughts on this?

Normally, you see waves of change in projections, as they update guys;  people will jump or fall 10 spots seemingly overnight, without reason.   NBADraft.net is sort of notorious about it; they evaluate team-by-team, in cycling waves, usually based on groupings of games around the date of the eval-- the problem with how they tend to do it, is at this point in the year they read box scores--- and Bobby had two foul prone stinkers;  that's why you'll see not only Portis' status change, but also Kingsley and Qualls change at essentially the same time-- the deep evals are just rarer mid-season.    I'd expect Qualls to disappear off of their 2016 board entirely, if he had another ineffective game-  not that his actual draft status would change, but just because they're more prone to box-score watching.

If you look at the prospect profile, though, you'll notice he's one of the 2015 guys they haven't actually given a categorical evaluation yet;  that's usually when they bring in the NBA consultants.
If you look at their scored vs. unscored guys,  only a few in their top 14 are unscored-- and that makes a difference- once they score a guy, they tend to move less, and are less effected by the box-score effect previously described.

  I don't think it is likely they have heard anything about any intent to return;    the best chance to see a positive change for his draft status on nbadraft.net is going to be our Kentucky game-- that will be where he can wow their contributors, by performing on the court with other top flight NBA prospects-- and in front of the eyes of the guys who score players for them-  either that, or string together a box-score run that is very efficient for a few weeks, and do the yo-yo dance with everyone else who has a partial evaluation.





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nwahogfan1

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #21 on: December 20, 2014, 04:52:29 pm »

I want Portis to come back for at least one more year and I also want to see his Draft position to increase each year telling recruits that our coaches are good at developing College players.  This would be good when we are in the living room with a recruit and show them the development and the NBA money that player is making.
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ErieHog

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #22 on: December 20, 2014, 05:03:13 pm »

I want Portis to come back for at least one more year and I also want to see his Draft position to increase each year telling recruits that our coaches are good at developing College players.  This would be good when we are in the living room with a recruit and show them the development and the NBA money that player is making.

The problem is, that it won't help to stay;  if you hang around until 20,  you've burned off time you could be in an NBA program.    The proof is in the draft pudding  2014, only 3 seniors picked, and none before #11;  2013 - 3 seniors picked, none before #10--- and the climate isn't that much better for draft eligible juniors, either, especially bigs.

You don't develop into a lottery pick in college.
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Swinesong1

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #23 on: December 20, 2014, 05:15:24 pm »


You don't develop into a lottery pick in college.
Don't tell Trey Burke that.
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Swinesong1

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #24 on: December 20, 2014, 05:27:06 pm »

I want Portis to come back for at least one more year and I also want to see his Draft position to increase each year telling recruits that our coaches are good at developing College players.  This would be good when we are in the living room with a recruit and show them the development and the NBA money that player is making.
Anderson coached Joe Johnson, Pargo, Pressey n D Carroll.  All presently in NBA.
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ErieHog

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #25 on: December 20, 2014, 05:28:21 pm »

Don't tell Trey Burke that.

You mean the guy that left as a draft eligible sophomore?


6 Juniors or Seniors in the last 3 drafts, have gone in the Top 12 of the draft.    There have been more draft-eligible foreign players that have been picked in the same space, in the same time.

Of those, only one player was over 6'8"-    Thomas Robinson.
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Swinesong1

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #26 on: December 20, 2014, 05:38:12 pm »

You mean the guy that left as a draft eligible sophomore?


6 Juniors or Seniors in the last 3 drafts, have gone in the Top 12 of the draft.    There have been more draft-eligible foreign players that have been picked in the same space, in the same time.

Of those, only one player was over 6'8"-    Thomas Robinson.
Your statement was "you don't develop into a lottery pick in college".  Burke is a very recent example of your statement being false.  Want an even more recent example?  How about E Payton?  Big men?  Meyers Leonard, Kelly Olynyk, Cody Zeller, Ekpe Udoh....I can go on.
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-Blu

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #27 on: December 20, 2014, 05:48:10 pm »

Don't tell Trey Burke that.

Or Victor Oladipo, staying 3 years was definitely a benefit for him.

Also, since we were talking about nbadraft.net you have 3 juniors that are currently projected to be lottery picks in their mock draft.  All of these guys are significantly raising their draft status and probably would have been late first rounders had they gone out last year.  Last year you had 1 junior and 1 senior taken in the lottery.  In 2013 you had 2 juniors and 1 senior taken in the lottery.  So, it's not like NBA GM's are like "He's 21 we're not taking a chance in him in the lottery"  It's more like you have more GMs willing to take chances on these younger guys that potentially have a higher upside.

Just like the myth that you have to go to a certain school to be a high draft pick, it's a myth that you have to be 20 or under to be a high draft pick.  It's strictly situational, and like everything else there's always guys that break the "norm".  If I'm Bobby, I'm not thinking about my age or year classification, if I feel I'm ready for the next level and happy where I'm projected then I go, If not I stay in school, work hard, and come out when I'm ready.
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ErieHog

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #28 on: December 20, 2014, 06:01:38 pm »

Your statement was "you don't develop into a lottery pick in college".  Burke is a very recent example of your statement being false.  Want an even more recent example?  How about E Payton?  Big men?  Meyers Leonard, Kelly Olynyk, Cody Zeller, Ekpe Udoh....I can go on.

You are arguing my point for me, which is nice.

Burke was gone from the college game after 1 years- he didn't stay and develop.  He fled as soon as the opportunity looked possible-- and he wasn't exactly an unknown, as a Mr. Basketball Ohio and a HS Parade All American.

Meyers Leonard?  The guy who played two years at Illinois and left, because staying would have knocked him out of the Lottery-- and who was a consensus Top 10 player/borderline Top 5 in the 2010 class?   Zeller was the same, departing after his Sophomore year-  not sticking in the college game (also a Top 15 in his class guy, McDonald's AA, etc).    You go as soon as you cam

Udoh is the poster child for why you don't stay;  between his transfer and his sticking around, it cost him.  Olynyk is the absolute, positively best-case scenario for a guy who hangs around the college game-- and it isn't exactly  working out wonderfully for him, either.

Or Victor Oladipo, staying 3 years was definitely a benefit for him.

Also, since we were talking about nbadraft.net you have 3 juniors that are currently projected to be lottery picks in their mock draft.  All of these guys are significantly raising their draft status and probably would have been late first rounders had they gone out last year.  Last year you had 1 junior and 1 senior taken in the lottery.  In 2013 you had 2 juniors and 1 senior taken in the lottery.  So, it's not like NBA GM's are like "He's 21 we're not taking a chance in him in the lottery"  It's more like you have more GMs willing to take chances on these younger guys that potentially have a higher upside.

Just like the myth that you have to go to a certain school to be a high draft pick, it's a myth that you have to be 20 or under to be a high draft pick.  It's strictly situational, and like everything else there's always guys that break the "norm".  If I'm Bobby, I'm not thinking about my age or year classification, if I feel I'm ready for the next level and happy where I'm projected then I go, If not I stay in school, work hard, and come out when I'm ready.

If you want to have an NBA future, and be viewed as a non-disposable asset, you go as soon as humanly possible,  *especially* as a big.


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rude1

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #29 on: December 20, 2014, 06:06:21 pm »

Not surprising to me, Portis has never been a consensus lottery nor first round pick on everyone's board. If he is going to be a lottery pick, he will have to go to camps and do well, but he also risks doing poorly and playing himself out of the first round completely. Can he make contested shots? What NBA position does he defend? Can he create his own shot? Can he rebound in the NBA? IMO there's much he needs to stay and work on to get himself into a consensus lottery pick where he won't need camps to improve his draft stock.
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-Blu

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #30 on: December 20, 2014, 06:14:59 pm »

If you want to have an NBA future, and be viewed as a non-disposable asset, you go as soon as humanly possible,  *especially* as a big.

Well most guys in the NBA are disposable assets, no matter what your age is.  We've seen guys be franchise players one year, then out the league a couple years later. 

And we'll agree to disagree on how soon you should come out.  IMO it's strictly on a per player basis, if you don't feel like your ready then you shouldn't feel pressure to go, that sounds like a recipe for disaster. I don't think your less likely to be a bust if your 19 rather than 21.  There's examples on both sides of successful freshmen/sophomore and successful juniors/seniors as high draft picks.  You have tons of examples of guys that played 3 years or more and are having a very successful NBA career. 
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TNhawgfan

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #31 on: December 20, 2014, 06:18:47 pm »

I bet Kingsley would make a hell of a college player. 
Me too. If only he got consistent minutes to show us
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ErieHog

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #32 on: December 20, 2014, 06:18:53 pm »

Well most guys in the NBA are disposable assets, no matter what your age is.  We've seen guys be franchise players one year, then out the league a couple years later. 

And we'll agree to disagree on how soon you should come out.  IMO it's strictly on a per player basis, if you don't feel like your ready then you shouldn't feel pressure to go, that sounds like a recipe for disaster. I don't think your less likely to be a bust if your 19 rather than 21.  There's examples on both sides of successful freshmen/sophomore and successful juniors/seniors as high draft picks.  You have tons of examples of guys that played 3 years or more and are having a very successful NBA career. 

The NBA Draft, for players, is like gambling.    The odds are stacked very heavily in one way-- second contracts for 19 year olds coming out their first deal are much, much easier, even if they haven't blossomed into a full fledged rotation player, than a player looking at the same opportunity, but two years older.

You can win in blackjack by hitting at 18, sometimes-- it just isn't a recipe for success, over the long term.
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Swinesong1

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #33 on: December 20, 2014, 06:21:31 pm »

You are arguing my point for me, which is nice.

Burke was gone from the college game after 1 years- he didn't stay and develop.  He fled as soon as the opportunity looked possible-- and he wasn't exactly an unknown, as a Mr. Basketball Ohio and a HS Parade All American.

Meyers Leonard?  The guy who played two years at Illinois and left, because staying would have knocked him out of the Lottery-- and who was a consensus Top 10 player/borderline Top 5 in the 2010 class?   Zeller was the same, departing after his Sophomore year-  not sticking in the college game (also a Top 15 in his class guy, McDonald's AA, etc).    You go as soon as you cam

Udoh is the poster child for why you don't stay;  between his transfer and his sticking around, it cost him.  Olynyk is the absolute, positively best-case scenario for a guy who hangs around the college game-- and it isn't exactly  working out wonderfully for him, either.

If you want to have an NBA future, and be viewed as a non-disposable asset, you go as soon as humanly possible,  *especially* as a big.
Burke was out of the top 100 on every ranking.  Heck, Abron was a Parade AA!  He stayed two years at MI.  Udoh n Olynyk did in fact become lottery picks BECAUSE they stayed in college.  The same can be said for Zeller n Leonard.  They were not projected lottery picks coming out of high school.  If they were, they would have declared coming out of high school.  Lastly, the issue being discussed was being a lottery pick.  Not how they performed in the NBA after being a lottery pick.
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-Blu

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #34 on: December 20, 2014, 06:36:46 pm »

The NBA Draft, for players, is like gambling.    The odds are stacked very heavily in one way-- second contracts for 19 year olds coming out their first deal are much, much easier, even if they haven't blossomed into a full fledged rotation player, than a player looking at the same opportunity, but two years older.

I'd like to see some stats on that, because I don't believe a guy is going to get a second contract after his rookie contract if he hasn't been up to par just because he's only 22 or 23 rather than 24 or 25. 

Matter of fact that doesn't even make sense, if the player hasn't panned out for their first 3-4 years, they aren't going to give them to a long term contract anyways, so why would they care if he's 23 or 25.... I didn't know they signed guys that can't make the rotation coming off their rookie contract to 5-6 year deals.  Seems like your really stretching with this point Erie.
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ErieHog

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #35 on: December 20, 2014, 06:49:14 pm »

I'd like to see some stats on that, because I don't believe a guy is going to get a second contract after his rookie contract if he hasn't been up to par just because he's only 22 or 23 rather than 24 or 25. 

Matter of fact that doesn't even make sense, if the player hasn't panned out for their first 3-4 years, they aren't going to give them to a long term contract anyways, so why would they care if he's 23 or 25.... I didn't know they signed guys that can't make the rotation coming off their rookie contract to 5-6 year deals.  Seems like your really stretching with this point Erie.

I'll see if I can dig up the paper from the MIT Sports Analytics conference-- they did a thing, I think it was three years ago, that looked at the question from the perspective of franchise management in basketball-- would it be better to draft older players with college experience, or younger ones.     Mind, that was before the 1 year restriction was fully brought into consideration, and the current CBA, so even if you accept their conclusions, there's enough wiggle room for people who want to make the case that staying is good, because of the changes to the environment.

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HogsonHicks

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #36 on: December 20, 2014, 06:53:18 pm »

This discussion is immaterial if current projections are accurate. The debate is simple, Portis rolls the dice and leaves after this season, looking at a late first or early second round pick. Much less money and much lower chance of making a roster.  Based on other big men in the class he faces a tough climb to increase his stock (as pointed out earlier).

Alternatively, he works like he did this past summer, adds another 15-20 lbs, improves in the post (offensively and defensively), and makes a run at a 2016 lottery spot.

Does he leave in 2015 and settle for less, or does he give himself one more year to improve and benefit from a potentially lesser 2016 class?
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-Blu

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #37 on: December 20, 2014, 06:55:05 pm »

I'll see if I can dig up the paper from the MIT Sports Analytics conference-- they did a thing, I think it was three years ago, that looked at the question from the perspective of franchise management in basketball-- would it be better to draft older players with college experience, or younger ones.     Mind, that was before the 1 year restriction was fully brought into consideration, and the current CBA, so even if you accept their conclusions, there's enough wiggle room for people who want to make the case that staying is good, because of the changes to the environment.

Cool, I'd be interested in seeing it.  Definitely a good discussion. 
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ErieHog

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #38 on: December 20, 2014, 06:55:42 pm »

This discussion is immaterial if current projections are accurate. The debate is simple, Portis rolls the dice and leaves after this season, looking at a late first or early second round pick. Much less money and much lower chance of making a roster.  Based on other big men in the class he faces a tough climb to increase his stock (as pointed out earlier).

Alternatively, he works like he did this past summer, adds another 15-20 lbs, improves in the post (offensively and defensively), and makes a run at a 2016 lottery spot.

Does he leave in 2015 and settle for less, or does he give himself one more year to improve and benefit from a potentially lesser 2016 class?

He's not going to benefit, though, even if his skill level were to improve.   His base skill level is already lottery, and there is a definite opportunity cost trade off, more marked for bigs than perimeter players.   And he doesn't have to settle for less, by leaving this year.

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HogsonHicks

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #39 on: December 20, 2014, 06:59:44 pm »

He's not going to benefit, though, even if his skill level were to improve.   His base skill level is already lottery, and there is a definite opportunity cost trade off, more marked for bigs than perimeter players.   And he doesn't have to settle for less, by leaving this year.



Your logic is sound if he was a lottery pick. There's the rub. You seem to be the only one saying he's a lottery pick.
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rude1

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #40 on: December 20, 2014, 07:02:40 pm »

Your logic is sound if he was a lottery pick. There's the rub. You seem to be the only one saying he's a lottery pick.
Amazing isn't it? He continues to make the clam that Portis has lottery pick skills despite the experts seeing it differently.
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Kevin

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #41 on: December 20, 2014, 07:03:29 pm »

Doubt he is lottery, when you look around the college game, and add about five euro's
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ErieHog

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #42 on: December 20, 2014, 07:05:46 pm »

Your logic is sound if he was a lottery pick. There's the rub. You seem to be the only one saying he's a lottery pick.

He is a lottery pick.   He was a Top 6 guy, on some boards already this year-- and for the most part,  he's only dropped as they have supplemented player evals-- and they haven't added his.

Does that mean he goes 6, or 8?  Probably not.   Those are likely really close to his absolute, best case scenario ceiling, with the right guys delcaring and the right guys staying.  It doesn't mean, however, he won't go 12-15, which is probably where he fits most comfortably, dependent on team need.
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Kevin

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #43 on: December 20, 2014, 07:07:35 pm »

Wish he would fall to the Spurs, he would be pefect for them
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ErieHog

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #44 on: December 20, 2014, 07:13:24 pm »

Wish he would fall to the Spurs, he would be pefect for them

Spurs are a great fit;  Miami also would be good.  I'm interested in seeing if he'd be a good fit for a Triangle system in NY--  I just don't see it, but I hear people argue it.   

Teams I'd hate to see him play for:  Milwaukee,  OKC,  Memphis, LAL, LAC, and the Mavs.
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Kevin

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #45 on: December 20, 2014, 07:15:42 pm »

New York, & Brooklyn are a train wreck
Portland may work well also
Chicago too
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ErieHog

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #46 on: December 20, 2014, 07:19:42 pm »

New York, & Brooklyn are a train wreck
Portland may work well also
Chicago too

The Knicks are shockingly close to getting out from under that mess, particularly if the cap explosion gives them immediate relief next year.  I just don't see how you defend an NBA lineup with Carmello at the 3, and Bobby at the 4, without some serious rim protection.

Still, it'd be a big help for them if someone would eat one more of their big contracts before the deadline.

Portland is a little weird;  do you use him to spell Aldridge, and manage those minutes, or do you try to play a hybrid sort of wing offense with those guys 18 feet from the hoop on each baseline, and Lilard out top, creating a spacing nightmare, and hope you can defend enough to win?
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Kevin

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #47 on: December 20, 2014, 07:23:07 pm »

Any team with Carmelo is a train wreck. In the west, Portis could play a lot of center

Him backing up Noah, & gasol with the Bulls.
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HogsonHicks

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #48 on: December 20, 2014, 07:24:03 pm »

He is a lottery pick.   He was a Top 6 guy, on some boards already this year-- and for the most part,  he's only dropped as they have supplemented player evals-- and they haven't added his.

Does that mean he goes 6, or 8?  Probably not.   Those are likely really close to his absolute, best case scenario ceiling, with the right guys delcaring and the right guys staying.  It doesn't mean, however, he won't go 12-15, which is probably where he fits most comfortably, dependent on team need.


I sincerely hope you're right. I'd love to see him as a lottery pick.

With that said, I can't find a single draft ranking listing him that high.
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ErieHog

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Re: Portis Draft Stock
« Reply #49 on: December 20, 2014, 07:28:06 pm »

Any team with Carmelo is a train wreck. In the west, Portis could play a lot of center

Him backing up Noah, & gasol with the Bulls.

The Melo case is the most fascinating in basketball;  I can be easily convinced he's the most overrated guy in the league, or the most underrated superstar in the last 30 years, all within the context of what's going on around him.

I'd never, ever want to build a franchise around him, but I'd be scared to death to get rid of him, if I had the option of keeping him.

I can't see Bobby providing credible rim protection at the next level, so playing the 5 is suspect.  I'd much rather see him defending other stretch 4s.
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