Stats preview of Hogs-Mizzou (Former SEC-E champs)

[Fayettechill14]

http://www.arkansasfight.com/2014/11/25/7278415/arkansas-vs-missouri-advanced-stats-preview-rivalry-begins

Here y'all go. In terms of efficiency, Mizzou is the worst Power 5 offense we've faced this season by a very large margin.

[WPS007]

http://www.arkansasfight.com/2014/11/25/7278415/arkansas-vs-missouri-advanced-stats-preview-rivalry-begins

Here y'all go. In terms of efficiency, Mizzou is the worst Power 5 offense we've faced this season by a very large margin.

Misery Fans please take note of the above
Thanks chill  :razorback:

[trashcan maN]

Thanks for the writeup. Always my favorite previews.

[Kevin]

Great stuff, thanks

[Hawg_Thai'd]

I have been waiting for a write up from you, Adam. I really enjoy your perspective and you let the stats back up some of your feelings. Bobbie Shields could learn a thing or two about how to write an objective piece. Keep up the good work. Do you have plans for writing during the offseason?

[reddogjcss]

Thanks Adam! Great stuff! Statistically speaking!

[wupigsuey]

remind me what S&P+ means

[MuskogeeHogFan]

http://www.arkansasfight.com/2014/11/25/7278415/arkansas-vs-missouri-advanced-stats-preview-rivalry-begins

Here y'all go. In terms of efficiency, Mizzou is the worst Power 5 offense we've faced this season by a very large margin.

Maybe I missed it, lots of info there and good job, but did you address trending in the last 4 SEC games for each team? I know all games count in terms of stats, but I wonder how your stats play out in terms of trending over the last 4 SEC games?

There isn't any doubt that Missouri hasn't played the schedule that we have, but they are a good defensive team and over the last 4 SEC games for them (as an example) they have turned the ball over 1 time on offense and picked up 5 on defense.

There are other stats that I could cite, but I'll wait for your response since you already have those recorded.

[PorkSoda]

Mizzou is ranked #17  they are doomed.

[HogFanatic]

Mauk is less efficient at QB than Bo Wallace is...

[Fayettechill14]

Maybe I missed it, lots of info there and good job, but did you address trending in the last 4 SEC games for each team? I know all games count in terms of stats, but I wonder how your stats play out in terms of trending over the last 4 SEC games?

There isn't any doubt that Missouri hasn't played the schedule that we have, but they are a good defensive team and over the last 4 SEC games for them (as an example) they have turned the ball over 1 time on offense and picked up 5 on defense.

There are other stats that I could cite, but I'll wait for your response since you already have those recorded.

Mizzou seems to be peaking on offense, as their last two (Texas A&M and Tennessee) have been their best two in terms of offensive efficiency.

However, Texas A&M's defense is abysmal and has gotten worse over the course of the season. Tennessee has a decent defense, but was playing without leading tackler A.J. Johnson (who had led the SEC in tackles), their top cover corner, and their best safety (for the first half). To put that into context, imagine if Martrell Spaight and Jared Collins were out for the game and Rohan Gaines for the first half. That's what Tennessee was faced with.

So the question is whether Mizzou is actually playing better on offense or they're just playing bad/depleted defenses. What is for sure is that Mauk is making better decisions with the football, which goes a long way for them. Team that wins the turnover margin may win the game on Friday.

[reddogjcss]

We got to hit Mauk early and pressure the entire game!

[Hawg_Thai'd]

Maybe I missed it, lots of info there and good job, but did you address trending in the last 4 SEC games for each team? I know all games count in terms of stats, but I wonder how your stats play out in terms of trending over the last 4 SEC games?

There isn't any doubt that Missouri hasn't played the schedule that we have, but they are a good defensive team and over the last 4 SEC games for them (as an example) they have turned the ball over 1 time on offense and picked up 5 on defense.

There are other stats that I could cite, but I'll wait for your response since you already have those recorded.

I'm quite certain we have a considerably better advantage there. Our last game had 6 turnovers gained to a single loss. Not perfect, but not too bad. Our last 4 games starting with UAB, we have +8 turnovers. Missouri has, in the last 4, +4. Before that, against GA, they lost 5 and gained none which preceeded the FL game which they gained 6 to 1. They do good sometimes and bad sometimes. I think, because I love what is happening, that we are not only going to continue punching the other guys over and over and over, but we will take it away from them at least 3 times more...even with Austin starting. Mizzou can't stop this train.

M 4  a 8

[Fayettechill14]

Last 4 games, we are +8 in turnovers:

UAB: 1 lost, 1 gained ; Loss was meaningless "hero" attempt to field a bouncing punt by since-demoted punt return D.J. Dean

Miss State: 1 lost, 3 gained ; Picked off Dak twice and recovered a fumbled punt. Loss was end-of-game pick

LSU: 0 lost, 1 gained ; Loss was redzone fumbled by Jennings forced by Spaight

Ole Miss: 1 lost, 6 gained ; Two endzone picks of Wallace, a Wallace fumble forced by Spaight (looked identical to the Jennings one), a sack-fumble, a pick of the backup QB, and a weird unforced fumble by the backup QB. Loss was Austin Allen mishandling snap.

What is comforting about the defense is that it won two different ways. LSU, it was shutting them down completely, just 123 total yards. The one turnover came after the game was in hand, 17-0 in the fourth quarter. Against Ole Miss, turnovers drove things. Ole Miss only had 316 yards (well below their season average) but the 6 turnovers, especially the interceptions, were critical.

If both game had been won via a bunch of turnovers, I'd be worried that there was a fluke: what if Mizzou doesn't fumble or throw any picks, then what? But we also saw the defense bow up in the endzone even without turnovers.

Scoring opportunity possession (inside Hog 40) results for opponents:

LSU: missed FG, missed FG (caused by sack), fumble
Ole Miss: sack-fumble, interception, downs, interception, downs, interception

Wow.

[Hawg_Thai'd]

Hey Chill, thanks for bringing your knowledge and experience to the board. Your last 2 replies contained info that is just as pertained as your article. You are one to understand looking at ALL the angles leading up to a game. +1 every time.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Mizzou seems to be peaking on offense, as their last two (Texas A&M and Tennessee) have been their best two in terms of offensive efficiency.

However, Texas A&M's defense is abysmal and has gotten worse over the course of the season. Tennessee has a decent defense, but was playing without leading tackler A.J. Johnson (who had led the SEC in tackles), their top cover corner, and their best safety (for the first half). To put that into context, imagine if Martrell Spaight and Jared Collins were out for the game and Rohan Gaines for the first half. That's what Tennessee was faced with.

So the question is whether Mizzou is actually playing better on offense or they're just playing bad/depleted defenses. What is for sure is that Mauk is making better decisions with the football, which goes a long way for them. Team that wins the turnover margin may win the game on Friday.

Those are good points.

As I pointed out Missouri has thrown 1 INT (vs A&M) and lost zero fumbles in the last 4 SEC games,, while acquiring 1 fumble and 4 INT's (1 in each game).

In all fairness they have played against an average of the #83.8 ranked total defense and the #65.8 ranked total offense in those games averaging a scoring offense of 26.8 pts. per game and giving up an average of 18 pts per game.

Arkansas on the other hand (vs. the last 4 SEC opponents...not counting UAB here) has thrown 4 INT's and lost 3 fumbles for a total of 7 in those 4 games. Defensively, we have intercepted 5 passes and collected 5 fumbles for a total of 10 in these last four games.

We have averaged scoring 22.3 points per game while the defense has averaged allowing 15.5. But, we have done that facing an average of the #40.5 total offense and the #25.8 total defense.

Given those numbers it may take some of the shine off the fact that Missouri has averaged 228.8 rushing yards per game over their last four games. What they will face is an Arkansas team that has allowed an average of 108.5 rushing yards per game against the last 4 SEC opponents.

The biggest question this weekend in terms of their offense versus our defense will probably be in the passing game. Missouri is averaging 196.8 yards per game over the last 4 while our Secondary is averaging allowing 212.5. Though we beat Ole Miss on the strength of their 6 T/O's, we also gave up 253 yards passing to a team that had an injured QB and was without their AA receiver, Treadwell. And then there was that 331 we allowed Miss St. As I pointed out above, Mauk has thrown 1 INT in the last 4 SEC games, so as you pointed out Chill, he is making better decisions with the ball in his hands.

I would love to hang 30 on this team and shut them out just as we did our last two opponents, but in the absence of a lot of T/O's, I see this being a close game that may not be decided until the last half of the 4th quarter.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I'm quite certain we have a considerably better advantage there. Our last game had 6 turnovers gained to a single loss. Not perfect, but not too bad. Our last 4 games starting with UAB, we have +8 turnovers. Missouri has, in the last 4, +4. Before that, against GA, they lost 5 and gained none which preceeded the FL game which they gained 6 to 1. They do good sometimes and bad sometimes. I think, because I love what is happening, that we are not only going to continue punching the other guys over and over and over, but we will take it away from them at least 3 times more...even with Austin starting. Mizzou can't stop this train.

M 4  a 8

Take CUSA representative UAB (5-6)  out of the equation and just look at the trending of the last 4 SEC games and you get a slightly different look as I listed above.

[Hawg_Thai'd]

Take CUSA representative UAB (5-6)  out of the equation and just look at the trending of the last 4 SEC games and you get a slightly different look as I listed above.

Well, UAB game was an even 1 for 1 in the turnovers. If we went to the GA game, yes, we lost 4 that game, so then that would make it pretty even then. I'm not sure how far back you really count back to, but I have been using the Alabama game as the turning point and what our team has become. We may very well cough it up 8 times on Friday and not get a single one back, but as of recent trends, we are going ok. Not world beating, but the scores have pretty much told the story.

Edit: Not sure how I was looking at it before, but you are right about the Missouri TO #'s. I must have looked at a wrong column or something.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Well, UAB game was an even 1 for 1 in the turnovers. If we went to the GA game, yes, we lost 4 that game, so then that would make it pretty even then. I'm not sure how far back you really count back to, but I have been using the Alabama game as the turning point and what our team has become. We may very well cough it up 8 times on Friday and not get a single one back, but as of recent trends, we are going ok. Not world beating, but the scores have pretty much told the story.

I'm just looking at trending and trying to only use legit SEC opponents because I think that gives a more accurate representation of how we are playing. Even looking at the last 4 SEC games, we are +3, so that is a good, upward trend. First half of the season we weren't acquiring a lot of T/O's as I recall.

[Hawg_Thai'd]

I'm just looking at trending and trying to only use legit SEC opponents because I think that gives a more accurate representation of how we are playing. Even looking at the last 4 SEC games, we are +3, so that is a good, upward trend. First half of the season we weren't acquiring a lot of T/O's as I recall.

I understand what you are saying, but in that regard, lets look at opponents each team faced. We played GA, Miss St, LSU, and Ole Miss. They played Vandy, Kentucky, A&M, and Tenner. While it is true that we lost to A&M, I would say that we have played against a higher level of opponents. At least the people who make the rankings seem to think so.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I understand what you are saying, but in that regard, lets look at opponents each team faced. We played GA, Miss St, LSU, and Ole Miss. They played Vandy, Kentucky, A&M, and Tenner. While it is true that we lost to A&M, I would say that we have played against a higher level of opponents. At least the people who make the rankings seem to think so.

I agree, I mentioned that fact above in looking at comparative total offense and defensive rankings. They haven't faced the schedule that we have, especially over the course of the last 4 SEC games.

[Hawg_Thai'd]

I agree, I mentioned that fact above in looking at comparative total offense and defensive rankings. They haven't faced the schedule that we have, especially over the course of the last 4 SEC games.

Do you care to give a prediction on how many turnovers there will be? I say we lose 1. Intercpetion. I think they wil lose 3. 1 interception and 2 fumbles. Somebody's gonna get Spaighted.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Do you care to give a prediction on how many turnovers there will be? I say we lose 1. Intercpetion. I think they wil lose 3. 1 interception and 2 fumbles. Somebody's gonna get Spaighted.

Hard to say, Missouri hasn't been turning the ball over. I think they have lost 1 (INT) in the last four SEC games while acquiring 5. So it isn't as if they are T/O prone or at least they haven't demonstrated that tendency.

Meantime we have lost 7 in the last 4 SEC games and acquired 10. We are obviously losing the ball more often but gaining twice as many as Missouri over the same number of SEC games.

Missouri is +4, we are +3.

Projected game time temp in Columbia tommorow is projected to be about 51 degrees and sunny, so the weather shouldn't play a factor.

The playing surface is Fieldturf and was most recently new in 2012, so it shouldn't have a lot of wear and is probably in good shape. So the playing surface shouldn't create an advantage to either team.

I would love to see us get 3 and the offense not turn the ball over at all, I'm just not sure if it is going to play out that way.

[Hawg_Thai'd]

Hard to say, Missouri hasn't been turning the ball over. I think they have lost 1 (INT) in the last four SEC games while acquiring 5. So it isn't as if they are T/O prone or at least they haven't demonstrated that tendency.

Meantime we have lost 7 in the last 4 SEC games and acquired 10. We are obviously losing the ball more often but gaining twice as many as Missouri over the same number of SEC games.

Missouri is +4, we are +3.

Projected game time temp in Columbia tommorow is projected to be about 51 degrees and sunny, so the weather shouldn't play a factor.

The playing surface is Fieldturf and was most recently new in 2012, so it shouldn't have a lot of wear and is probably in good shape. So the playing surface shouldn't create an advantage to either team.

I would love to see us get 3 and the offense not turn the ball over at all, I'm just not sure if it is going to play out that way.

Well, it will all play out tomorrow. Have a good day, man. I'm going to bed. WPS!