Arkansas and Mizzou: By the competition

[Hogopotamus]

A lot of Mizzou posters on the 247 board talking up their defense, which got me curious. I have watched some of their games this year, and wasn't too impressed. Didn't think of them as a dumpster fire, but that loss to Indiana definitely smelled bad. Turns out, they are ranked 23rd in total D, compared to 24th for us. So I decided to dig into the schedules and see how the offenses and defenses we have faced differ (SEC opponents only):

Mizzou opponents average 58th in total D and 63rd in total O. Mizzou is ranked 23rd in total D and 101st in total O.

Arkansas opponents average 27th in total D and 33rd in total O. Arkansas is ranked 24th in total D and 52nd in total O.

Takeaways: While Arkansas and Mizzou are ranked very similarly in total D, the offenses we have faced are very different (33rd vs 63rd). In fact the only offenses we have faced that are not in the top 27 in total O (LSU and Ole Miss at 83rd and 44th) we shut out. So I firmly believe Mizzou's good total D stats are pumped up by their easier schedule.
On the other side of it Arkansas' total offense stat of 52nd, while not earth-shattering, is a lot better then 101st. Couple that with the fact we have faced much tougher defenses (37th vs 58th) and it shows a clear advantage to us. Also, I have heard from Mizzou fans that their offense has gotten a lot better since the Georgia and Florida games (when they accumulated 266 yds of offense over two games), but there is a much better explanation for this. Georgia and Florida are ranked 13th and 11th in total D, while the next best D they have faced is Tenn at 45th. Vandy, Kent, and AM are all 70th and above. So Mizzou's increase in production isn't exactly a surprise.

Conclusions: With BA, I would be very confident in a win. But from the rumblings I have heard, we will be going with AA, which will hurt our offensive production (experience is important). And, if he gets nervous and makes some big mistakes the game could go either way. However, he held his own against a much better D last week, got plenty of snaps, and, besides the fumbled handoff, didn't make any big mistakes. Thus I think we still have a good chance of beating another ranked team to finish the regular season (and if the defense were going to pitch one shut-out this year, shouldn't it have been against the 101st ranked offense?  Hat-trick please )

[Razorfox]

Yeah, on paper and in the stats column, I would say we should win (assuming BA is back, otherwise it's a different team).

[Tomhog™]

It's why we play the game. They will be playing for a trip to Atlanta and it's also Senior Day. A win won't be easy in Columbia, even if stats favor the Hogs. I really hope BA is able to play. I don't like our chances with AA the entire game.

[Hogopotamus]

It's why we play the game. They will be playing for a trip to Atlanta and it's also Senior Day. A win won't be easy in Columbia, even if stats favor the Hogs. I really hope BA is able to play. I don't like our chances with AA the entire game.

I agree BA being healthy would certainly help, but I really like our defense against their offense. If they play lights out like the last two weeks again, we could let Tretola push his Heisman candidacy case and still have a chance.

[Atlhogfan1]

I think both defenses have gotten some breaks in the "condition" of the opponents they have faced.  For Mizzou, this is going on two seasons with something I've never seen before.  Sims and Cooper, or Dak if Bama were to lose, will likely be injured for the SECCG if Mizzou were to beat the Hogs.  It is how it has gone for Mizzou.  But we also caught breaks with LSU missing starting olinemen and a RB and OM missing Treadwell which changed the effectiveness of their offense plus Bo getting hurt.   We played UAB's backup qb.  Dak was somewhat hobbled and not the running threat he is when healthy.  We're on a streak of breaks.  Rankings and statistics can be misleading.  I do believe our schedules are very different with ours being tougher. 


 

[code red]

I think both defenses have gotten some breaks in the "condition" of the opponents they have faced.  For Mizzou, this is going on two seasons with something I've never seen before.  Sims and Cooper, or Dak if Bama were to lose, will likely be injured for the SECCG if Mizzou were to beat the Hogs.  It is how it has gone for Mizzou.  But we also caught breaks with LSU missing starting olinemen and a RB and OM missing Treadwell which changed the effectiveness of their offense plus Bo getting hurt.   We played UAB's backup qb.  Dak was somewhat hobbled and not the running threat he is when healthy.  We're on a streak of breaks.  Rankings and statistics can be misleading.  I do believe our schedules are very different with ours being tougher. 


 

I think we go 11-1 on their schedule....no lie.

[HangTenHog]

If you look at this week's ESPN Power Rankings, what clearly stands out between both programs and the teams they've played?  Take Ark out of the rankings and when we play Mizz, we will have played the top eight teams in the power ranking. What about Mizz? They played all five bottom dwellers.

Strength of conference schedule is clearly more impressive for the Hogs.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sec/post/_/id/94186/sec-power-rankings-week-13-5

[Hoggish1]

Shutout hat trick would rock the world.  Let's do it.  But a one pt. win would be just fine...

[redeye]

Hogopotamus, that's a logical conclusion from the stats, but I think Missouri is better then they appear.  I just hope our players don't go into the game as overconfident as many of our fans, because Missouri isn't a bad team at all.