Hogs -13 tonight against Wake.

[k.c.hawg]

I'm hoping we can show we deserve the respect. I don't know much about Wake other than what BP has posted but the number has moved upward since opening, hopefully the people laying early money have a good feel for the game. I will always be happy to add an early season ACC win to the resume even if it is a bottom of the league team.

[TRUHOG718]

I'm taking Zona and Wisky -16 each. Laying off the Hogs and am tempted to take Creighton game not spread over the sooners on a small wager separate ticket.

[Rawker]

Extremely generous at this stage. I'm hoping for -1.

[BRHogfan]

Devin Thomas and Konstantinos Mitoglou will both start for Wake Forest giving them some nice size inside.  It will be very interesting to see if Mike starts both Kingsley and Portis to counter these guys. 

Wake Forest is shooting just under 40% from beyond the arc in their first two games, so hopefully we won't see a 50% effort like Alabama State had.

They had 24 Turnovers against UNC-Ashville and 18 against Tulane, neither team forced many turnovers last season.  Wake Forest only averaged about 12 Turnovers per game last season and they are averaging 21 Turnovers per game coming in to play the Hogs who forced 23 in their first game and forced and average of 17 a game last season.   

[ErieHog]

This is right about where I expect the game will end.   One of those lines you see, and you don't touch it with a 10 foot pole.

[intelligence]

Forgive my ignorance on the subject of sports betting, but i've always wondered: How does this whole "over/under" thing work?

[phadedhawg]

I'm super pumped for the game tonight.  I don't care the spread just want the W

[BRHogfan]

Forgive my ignorance on the subject of sports betting, but i've always wondered: How does this whole "over/under" thing work?

This isn't over/under.  Usually betting Over/Under means you are betting that with a given statistic (like total score), you are taking the Over (more than the number the book picks) or Under (less than the book picks).  Two teams like Arkansas and LSU that don't play great defense might have a high over/under, while teams like Florida and Kentucky playing each other would be a low over/under due to their defense.

Arkansas is -13 tonight, which means that the Hogs are giving 13 points to wake Forest.  A bet on the Hogs means that Arkansas must win by more than 13 points for the better to win.  A bet on Wake Forest means that as long as Wake Forest keeps it to within 12 points, then the bet would win. 

Arkansas football is +3.5 against Ole Miss this weekend, which means Arkansas is getting 3.5 points.  A bet on Arkansas wins if Ole Miss fails to win by more than 3.5 points etc.

[Silky_Jackson]

I'm super pumped for the game tonight.  I don't care the spread just want the W

Missed FT's are the only thing that should make this close.  If we shoot 75% or better on FT's we should run away with it.

[intelligence]

This isn't over/under.  Usually betting Over/Under means you are betting that with a given statistic (like total score), you are taking the Over (more than the number the book picks) or Under (less than the book picks).  Two teams like Arkansas and LSU that don't play great defense might have a high over/under, while teams like Florida and Kentucky playing each other would be a low over/under due to their defense.

Arkansas is -13 tonight, which means that the Hogs are giving 13 points to wake Forest.  A bet on the Hogs means that Arkansas must win by more than 13 points for the better to win.  A bet on Wake Forest means that as long as Wake Forest keeps it to within 12 points, then the bet would win. 

Arkansas football is +3.5 against Ole Miss this weekend, which means Arkansas is getting 3.5 points.  A bet on Arkansas wins if Ole Miss fails to win by more than 3.5 points etc.

Oh ok, thanks for explaining it to me dude. I owe ya a +1 in the near future.

[intelligence]

I'm super pumped for the game tonight.  I don't care the spread just want the W

Me too man. hopefully we aren't rusty this time around.

[Silky_Jackson]

Oh ok, thanks for explaining it to me dude. I owe ya a +1 in the near future.

Another way to think of it is just to add or subtract the number from the total score.

Take the final score tonight and subtract 13 from the hogs. Do we still win? Then you win

[Atlhogfan1]

Double digit win. 

[Danny J]

Double digit win.

Hope so......

Actually I wouldn't mind a close tough game where they really give us a test and a scare. I think that might just be what this team needs.

[hogman99]

Devin Thomas and Konstantinos Mitoglou will both start for Wake Forest giving them some nice size inside.  It will be very interesting to see if Mike starts both Kingsley and Portis to counter these guys. 

Wake Forest is shooting just under 40% from beyond the arc in their first two games, so hopefully we won't see a 50% effort like Alabama State had.

They had 24 Turnovers against UNC-Ashville and 18 against Tulane, neither team forced many turnovers last season.  Wake Forest only averaged about 12 Turnovers per game last season and they are averaging 21 Turnovers per game coming in to play the Hogs who forced 23 in their first game and forced and average of 17 a game last season.   

Don't hold your breath on Portis and Kingsley starting together.  CMA has been consistent on how he doesn't play them together.  I could be wrong, but until he does I won't believe it.

[wupigsuey]

Until we get a name opponent under our belt, I won't know what we have yet. Until then, I scare

[elksnort]

-13 is a lot of points.

Does Wake Forrest not handle the ball well?

[intelligence]

-13 is a lot of points.

Does Wake Forrest not handle the ball well?

Idk, but they are 19th in the country @ 48 rebounds per game. Obviously, they haven't faced a team like arkansas yet. but logically they will outpace us on the glass. unfortunately, it might not be enough lol.

Here's how the hogs stack up nationally in stats

POINTS PER GAME
97.0
8th
OVERALL
REBOUNDS PER GAME
27.0
326th
OVERALL
ASSISTS PER GAME
25.0
3rd
OVERALL
FIELD GOAL PCT
.567
15th

Here's Wake Forest

POINTS PER GAME
75.5
122nd
OVERALL
REBOUNDS PER GAME
48.0
19th
OVERALL
ASSISTS PER GAME
14.0
128th
OVERALL
FIELD GOAL PCT
.486
79th

[intelligence]

So far, we are 326th of 351 teams in rebounding.  wow. we have got to step it up in that department.

[ErieHog]

-13 is a lot of points.

Does Wake Forrest not handle the ball well?

Their guards are considered suspect.

[popcornhog]

I'm taking Zona and Wisky -16 each. Laying off the Hogs and am tempted to take Creighton game not spread over the sooners on a small wager separate ticket.

Gambling on double digit spreads to cover in the first couple of weeks of basketball season is nutty to me.

[popcornhog]

So far, we are 326th of 351 teams in rebounding.  wow. we have got to step it up in that department.

So far? Lol me game. Wut?

It was bad though, I agree.

[ErieHog]

Gambling on double digit spreads to cover in the first couple of weeks of basketball season is nutty to me.

Yeah.  If there was a better way to light money on fire,  it'd involve gasoline.

[elksnort]

Their guards are considered suspect.

If the Hogs play the NR/MA way, then they'll almost always defeat a team whose guards don't take care of the ball. 

[Breems]

More than doubled it.

[intelligence]

So far? Lol me game. Wut?

It was bad though, I agree.

Much better tonight.

[downsouthhawg72]

I'm taking Zona and Wisky -16 each. Laying off the Hogs and am tempted to take Creighton game not spread over the sooners on a small wager separate ticket.

That Zona Spread was close, very close. But it came through.

[Rawker]

Two teams like Arkansas and LSU that don't play great defense might have a high over/under

BAAAAA HA HA HA HA!!!
Deacons were almost 50% from 3 before tonight. 1-18 tonight.  And in my book, good defense often results in a steal....Hogs had 12, putting them at number 4 in the nation.

[BRHogfan]

BAAAAA HA HA HA HA!!!
Deacons were almost 50% from 3 before tonight. 1-18 tonight.  And in my book, good defense often results in a steal....Hogs had 12, putting them at number 4 in the nation.

I think you got me.  I felt like we didn't play the greatest defense last season at times, but a large part of that is our pace allows teams to score a lot of points, even though we had a top 50 defensive rating last season.  We are definitely killing it defensively so far this season though!

We were also top 20 in ppg scored last season which is another reason why you might see high over/unders.

[BRHogfan]

So far, we are 326th of 351 teams in rebounding.  wow. we have got to step it up in that department.

We finished last season ranked 290 in Total Rebounding%, and we are 283rd right now. 

32 Rebounds per game will not set the world on fire, and will actually leave us with less rebounds per game than last season. 

[Mortgage Hog]

We finished last season ranked 290 in Total Rebounding%, and we are 283rd right now. 

32 Rebounds per game will not set the world on fire, and will actually leave us with less rebounds per game than last season.

Rebounds per game will always be lower if your turning your opponents over 20+ times a game and I am ok with that...

[BRHogfan]

Rebounds per game will always be lower if your turning your opponents over 20+ times a game and I am ok with that...

The Total Rebound Percentage TRB% is the percentage of available rebounds you get.  In 2013-2014, 190 teams got at least 50% of the available rebounds, while Arkansas only got 47.73% of available rebounds. That number drops below 45% when Arkansas played in conference, which means that on average they were losing the rebound battle by seven a game if there were 70 total missed shots available. 

Last season Arkansas conference opponents averaged
16 turnovers per game, while Arkansas averaged 11.61 turnovers per game. 
Arkansas shot .408 while allowing opponents to shot .418
Out of an average of 74.67 total rebounds per game, Arkansas got 33.56 while allowing their opponents to get 41.11

That math means Arkansas should've lost most of their games, but the only reason it works out that well is because Arkansas got blown out so badly on the road when they lost a couple of times and their three point percentage was higher than their opponents.  Once again this is only conference games, because the statistics get so skewed when you add in some of the terrible non-con games from last season.