Just Witnessed

[demonHOG1013]

Bama will jump TCU and maybe others after beating #1 MSU. I dont think MSU falls out of the top 4 after TCU struggled with Kansas.  Ohio St's loss to lowly VT at home still weighs heavy.  IF you judge the 1-loss teams by who has the "best" loss if would go as follows:

Miss St lost to #5 Bama
TCU lost to #7 Baylor
Bama lost to #10 Ole Miss
Oregon lost to #15 Arizona
Baylor lost to West Virginia
Ohio State lost at home to Virginia Tech

And Bama has by far the best win, beating #1 Miss St.

I would put FSU #1 only because they havent been beaten in two years
Bama #2
Miss St #3
Oregon #4 after a bye
Baylor #5 because they beat TCU
TCU #6
Ohio St #7

[Hogfaniam]

This is great.  Bring on the Eight

[The Hogfather]

The people making the poll

It is truly idiotic logic to say, "hey, Baylor, we know you beat TCU, but you only beat a bad Buffalo team in the non-conference portion of your schedule and TCU beat an average Minnesota team.  Therefore, we  have to put TCU above you."

TCU only beat Oklahoma by 4 at home and Baylor beat them by 34 at Oklahoma.

[hogsanity]

This is why some said people should be careful what they wished for with a playoff. We were concerned with HOW the teams would be picked. Why they could not have just kept the BCS, and used the top 4 teams instead of having a committee is now becoming clear.  A human committee was formed to be able to put whatever 4 teams they WANTED in the playoff.

If the old bcs formula was being used, would tosu be anywhere near the top 6 with a home loss to a really bad VT team?  Would TCU be near the top 6 after scoring 58 points AND LOSING, or Baylor after losing to WV? 

My guess is the committee will put in 3 teams that everyone goes " yea, right picks there " and one where everyone other than fans of that particular team will go " what were they thinking? ".

[The Hogfather]

Not sure what you expected from an Ohio St grad?  I would hope that if we were in the same position as them and Barry Foster was a commentator, he would be pushing for the Hogs to get in.

It wasn't JUST Robert Smith.  It was every guy on the panel, including Butch Davis.  He was just the one pushing the hardest.

[demonHOG1013]

Why TCU has been ranked higher than Baylor, from what I can tell is the committee is taking each team at what it has done to this point.  TCU's win over then #7 Kansas State gives them a better resume at this point.  However, as the year goes along, and both teams keep winning, Baylor's resume will become better and they ultimately will be declared Big 12 champs by the win over TCU at which time Baylor will be ranked higher than TCU.

[The Hogfather]

Why TCU has been ranked higher than Baylor, from what I can tell is the committee is taking each team at what it has done to this point.  TCU's win over then #7 Kansas State gives them a better resume at this point.  However, as the year goes along, and both teams keep winning, Baylor's resume will become better and they ultimately will be declared Big 12 champs by the win over TCU at which time Baylor will be ranked higher than TCU.

We'll see.  I'm not so sure.

[Cinco de Hogo]

Never made sense to me to start with four anyway.  I can't see leaving a P5 conference champion out of the playoff if they are a top ten team, that is not good for football politics.  You need a chance to prove that your conference is as good as the next(notice I am talking about a team that won and is top ten).  It's also not fair to leave a team out of the top four that is obviously better than number five just because they finished second in the best division in the history of sports.

With four teams you can argue the case that any of the four could win, with eight you would be stretching that argument, but that is what you need to cover all your possible bases.

[hoglady]

This is why some said people should be careful what they wished for with a playoff. We were concerned with HOW the teams would be picked. Why they could not have just kept the BCS, and used the top 4 teams instead of having a committee is now becoming clear.  A human committee was formed to be able to put whatever 4 teams they WANTED in the playoff.

If the old bcs formula was being used, would tosu be anywhere near the top 6 with a home loss to a really bad VT team?  Would TCU be near the top 6 after scoring 58 points AND LOSING, or Baylor after losing to WV? 

My guess is the committee will put in 3 teams that everyone goes " yea, right picks there " and one where everyone other than fans of that particular team will go " what were they thinking? ".

I've been wondering where these teams would fall under the old BCS system.
Sure wish there was a way to know that.

[hogsanity]

It wasn't JUST Robert Smith.  It was every guy on the panel, including Butch Davis.  He was just the one pushing the hardest.

Of course. They want people in biG country to keep watching. Same with the big12. Right now, the most likely scenario is that either the big10 or big12 get left out, and possibly both if MSu and baba both win out.

[hogsanity]

Never made sense to me to start with four anyway.  I can't see leaving a P5 conference champion out of the playoff if they are a top ten team, that is not good for football politics.  You need a chance to prove that your conference is as good as the next(notice I am talking about a team that won and is top ten).  It's also not fair to leave a team out of the top four that is obviously better than number five just because they finished second in the best division in the history of sports.

With four teams you can argue the case that any of the four could win, with eight you would be stretching that argument, but that is what you need to cover all your possible bases.

Same problem exists with 8 though, take the 5 power conf winners, and then how do you pick the other 3?  plus if they go to 8, the non-power conferences are going to have a bigger argument for a seat at the table.

[Supermark101]

It is truly idiotic logic to say, "hey, Baylor, we know you beat TCU, but you only beat a bad Buffalo team in the non-conference portion of your schedule and TCU beat an average Minnesota team.  Therefore, we  have to put TCU above you."

TCU only beat Oklahoma by 4 at home and Baylor beat them by 34 at Oklahoma.

Again average> bad
Baylor/TCU was a close game that could have gone either way. You have to look at the whole picture.

LSU beat Wisconsin by 4, but Northwestern beat Wisconsin by 6. Is Northwestern better than LSU?

[hogsanity]

Again average> bad
Baylor/TCU was a close game that could have gone either way. You have to look at the whole picture.

LSU beat Wisconsin by 4, but Northwestern beat Wisconsin by 6. Is Northwestern better than LSU?

When it comes to whole picture concerning tcu/baylor the only thing anyone should look at is a team scored 58 points, FIFTY-EIGHT, and LOST.

[demonHOG1013]

Same problem exists with 8 though, take the 5 power conf winners, and then how do you pick the other 3?  plus if they go to 8, the non-power conferences are going to have a bigger argument for a seat at the table.

Take the 5 conf champs and three at large bids. The non-power 5 conf push isnt as big as it used to be since most of the teams that were considered "BCS Busters" have now joined a power 5 conf and Peterson isnt at Boise St anymore so they are a non-factor.  You will still have some arguement over the 3 at large bids, but atleast all 5 conf champs will get a shot.

[Supermark101]

If the old bcs formula was being used, would tosu be anywhere near the top 6 with a home loss to a really bad VT team?  Would TCU be near the top 6 after scoring 58 points AND LOSING, or Baylor after losing to WV? 

LOL somebody has to make it. Under the old system the polls were 2/3. The same 7 teams woukd be playing for the 4 spots because they are higher in the polls.

[hogsanity]

Take the 5 conf champs and three at large bids. The non-power 5 conf push isnt as big as it used to be since most of the teams that were considered "BCS Busters" have now joined a power 5 conf and Peterson isnt at Boise St anymore so they are a non-factor.  You will still have some arguement over the 3 at large bids, but atleast all 5 conf champs will get a shot.

someone still has to pick the 3 at large teams.  The picking of the teams has always been the biggest problem with a fbs level playoff. even with 8 spots, that is 8 out of 125 teams. 6% of teams make the playoff.

I think it eventually goes to the 8 team ( 5 AQ plus 3wc ) format.

[hogsanity]

LOL somebody has to make it. Under the old system the polls were 2/3. The same 7 teams woukd be playing for the 4 spots because they are higher in the polls.

But some of the polls were computer polls which took into account sos and other things, WITHOUT the bias that humans just naturally have. 

The biggest bias in this setup is the one where they want to spread the wealth. People, in general, do not like it when one organization hordes the spotlight. They do NOT want two teams from the same league, one of which is not even going to play for the conf title ( if Bama and MSu both win out ) if they can justify keeping one out by saying a 1 loss big10 or big12 team is more deserving because they won their conf, no matter who inferior top to bottom that conf is.

[demonHOG1013]

Right now if they took 8 teams, undefeated FSU and all 6 one loss teams are in.  Then who would get the 8th spot.  Who is the best 2 loss team? Undefeated Marshall? 5-5 Arkansas?

[The Hogfather]

Again average> bad
Baylor/TCU was a close game that could have gone either way. You have to look at the whole picture.

LSU beat Wisconsin by 4, but Northwestern beat Wisconsin by 6. Is Northwestern better than LSU?

The whole picture includes Baylor beating TCU head-to-head.  That is the trump card. 

[Inhogswetrust]

Right now if they took 8 teams, undefeated FSU and all 6 one loss teams are in.  Then who would get the 8th spot.  Who is the best 2 loss team? Undefeated Marshall? 5-5 Arkansas?

There is ALWAYS someone deserving left out no matter how many are in a playoff. In my opinion most playoffs have TOO many teams involved in it especially in pro football and basketball. I think 4 or 8 in college football is fine.

[hogsanity]

The whole picture includes Baylor beating TCU head-to-head.  That is the trump card. 

Apparently not, since TCU is ranked above Baylor.

[The Hogfather]

Apparently not, since TCU is ranked above Baylor.

Which is idiotic.

[ChicoHog]

Who cares about non-con wins?  Baylor beat TCU and they have the same record.  Baylor should be ahead of TCU.  And Miss St should be ahead of both of them.

I agree with you on TCU/Bsylor but non conf wins are huge.  Only way to truly judge outside your conference.  Games like Oregon/Mich st are huge for measuring those opportunities.  Oregon st just beat AZ st.  Who is to say Oregon st is the pac 12 north's Arkansas?  We don't know because these teams never play each other.  There is a lot of variables involved and the committee will look at them all. 

[Supermark101]

But some of the polls were computer polls which took into account sos and other things, WITHOUT the bias that humans just naturally have. 

The biggest bias in this setup is the one where they want to spread the wealth. People, in general, do not like it when one organization hordes the spotlight. They do NOT want two teams from the same league, one of which is not even going to play for the conf title ( if Bama and MSu both win out ) if they can justify keeping one out by saying a 1 loss big10 or big12 team is more deserving because they won their conf, no matter who inferior top to bottom that conf is.

Dear lord.....the HUMAN polls were 2/3, the 7 or so compters were only a 1/3. Only difference now is that less people are deciding.  Which i will agree makes it easier to fill an agenda.

Right now if they took 8 teams, undefeated FSU and all 6 one loss teams are in.  Then who would get the 8th spot.  Who is the best 2 loss team? Undefeated Marshall? 5-5 Arkansas?

I count 9 2 loss teams that could make an agreement, if they were to win out.

[The Hogfather]

I agree with you on TCU/Bsylor but non conf wins are huge.  Only way to truly judge outside your conference.  Games like Oregon/Mich st are huge for measuring those opportunities.  Oregon st just beat AZ st.  Who is to say Oregon st is the pac 12 north's Arkansas?  We don't know because these teams never play each other.  There is a lot of variables involved and the committee will look at them all. 

One thing everyone knows is that Baylor beat TCU.  Beating Minnesota instead of Buffalo doesn't erase that fact.

[EastexHawg]

How is TCU ahead of Baylor??  So ridiculous!  And I don't even give a shiz about Baylor....

Baylor still has three games remaining.  If they win out, which means beating Kansas State (who TCU already thumped), they will finish ranked above TCU.

There are still games left to play.  There's no reason to get indignant about the rankings just yet.

Our fan base if schizophrenic when it comes to the Big 10 and how deserving/accomplished its conference champions are.  I'll leave it at that for now.

[Supermark101]

The whole picture includes Baylor beating TCU head-to-head.  That is the trump card. 

It's not the only card. And it is not a trumps card in 14 week season.

[The Hogfather]

And it is not a trumps card in 14 week season.

It SHOULD BE.

[Supermark101]

It SHOULD BE.

Agree to disagree my friend? A lot of games left :razorback:

[Hogfaniam]

Dear lord.....the HUMAN polls were 2/3, the 7 or so compters were only a 1/3. Only difference now is that less people are deciding.  Which i will agree makes it easier to fill an agenda.

I count 9 2 loss teams that could make an agreement, if they were to win out.

This is great!  Bring on the 16!

[jgphillips3]

8 teams need to get here sooner rather than later.  I hope this whole thing boils down to a cluster that forces that.  If MSU is excluded from the top four for a loss on the road by 5 points to a team that has won 3 of the last 6 national titles, the whole thing needs to be burned down.  It should be FSU (which makes me want to puke), Bama, Oregon & MSU.  That is your proven four best thus far.

[ChicoHog]

I remember Notre Dame cheating Miami in South Bend and then avoiding them like the plague at the end of the season in a rematch for it all. Instead they played West Virginia for the title.

That's the kind of crap that brought about the BCS to begin with.

Let's see.  ND beat Miami fair and square.  WVU was undefeated so they were the logical bowl game choice and the Fiesta was the only major bowl without a conference automatic bid at the time so they made it happen.  Just like 2 years earlier when Penn st beat Miami in the fiesta bowl. 

[ChicoHog]

As someone who works primarily in statistical analysis, I can say that while you can certainly use bad analysis to game a certain result (there are "lies, damn lies, and statistics" as the saying goes) it as both very obvious when someone is attempting to lead results and that the "bias" you seem to be implying is not possible with the computer polls short of just faking the results.

"Bias" in the computer polls takes the form of how highly the creator ranks certain attributes. Maybe one gives a higher weight to road wins, one to conference wins, one to strength of schedule, etc.

Looking at some of the past computer ratings I am glad they don't use them.  I was a faithful USA today for years (not as much anymore since it's 2 bucks!) and Sagarin was in there every week.  I was shocked at how he would have certain teams ranked higher than others with the exact same record and less of a schedule strength component.  then I figured it out that he was using point differential.  That highly favors offensive teams like Oregon, Baylor, etc., who win by big margins usually against inferior opponents vs defensive teams like Bama, LSU, who historically win by smaller margins because they run less plays and play more defense. 

also sometimes the computers will put weird stuff in there like I bet Marshall would be high in some of the computer rankings this year. 

[ChicoHog]

Why TCU has been ranked higher than Baylor, from what I can tell is the committee is taking each team at what it has done to this point.  TCU's win over then #7 Kansas State gives them a better resume at this point.  However, as the year goes along, and both teams keep winning, Baylor's resume will become better and they ultimately will be declared Big 12 champs by the win over TCU at which time Baylor will be ranked higher than TCU.

I agree.  TCU schedule was more front loaded and Baylor more back loaded.  If they both win out I would not be surprised to see Baylor pass them.  I do think Ohio st is better than both of them however.  It also would not surprise me if Texas beats TCU as the Longhorns are playing well now.  That will help the committee make a decision.

[latrops]

Well, one good thing is that the 4 team playoff all but guarantees that a soft/overrated team that gets in on hype and a good record against bad competition won't actually win the National Championship.  If they do, then they earned it with two top 5 wins with everything on the line.

I don't like Ohio State.  However, they have lost just 2 games over the last 3 years.  I won't be upset if they win out and make the final 4.  Their case won't be much different than that of a 1 loss PAC12/BIG12 team. 

Watching everyone play this year, FSU is almost sure to get in but I don't know if I'd pick them against any top 10 team.  I hope they lose somewhere along the way because they just don't seem to be that good this season...in spite of their record.

[Smokehouse]

Looking at some of the past computer ratings I am glad they don't use them.  I was a faithful USA today for years (not as much anymore since it's 2 bucks!) and Sagarin was in there every week.  I was shocked at how he would have certain teams ranked higher than others with the exact same record and less of a schedule strength component.  then I figured it out that he was using point differential.  That highly favors offensive teams like Oregon, Baylor, etc., who win by big margins usually against inferior opponents vs defensive teams like Bama, LSU, who historically win by smaller margins because they run less plays and play more defense. 

also sometimes the computers will put weird stuff in there like I bet Marshall would be high in some of the computer rankings this year. 

Point differential is probably a wash over time. Those offenses you listed generally come with poor defenses that give up a lot of points, and the good defensive teams were still getting 30-40 against the cupcakes while often shutting them out. It's a somewhat useful analytic for analyzing teams when you have multiple teams that play in the similar conferences and therefore overlap schedules significantly, causing some noise when you try to make comparisons.

Nobody thinks the polls are perfect, but that's why they were only 1/3 of the system. The computer rankings are very well designed for what they do and provide a good counterweight to cognitive biases exhibited by the human voters.

And your example of Marshall is the perfect example of how the computer doesn't overvalue crappy teams. Sagarin ratings currently have Marshall at 33 while they're sitting at 18 in the USA Today and AP polls. 

[Peter Porker]

There can be only one.

Just makes it easier for whomever we get in to win it all.

We?

[Hoggish1]

You guys are crazy if you don't think there will be a team from the Big 10 and a team from the PAC 12 in the final four.  They're going to try and keep everyone happy.

That's why they should figure out the logistics for an 8-team playoff, real quick.

Five conference champs automatically in and two SEC teams could get in with nobody biching.

As it is now, I would be in favor of Big 12 getting left out on the principle that they play one less game than the other four conferences.  That extra game is brutal and can be a huge disadvantage the Big 12 doesn't have to face! 

So, they should be penalized unless their winner is undefeated.

[The Hogfather]

Well, one good thing is that the 4 team playoff all but guarantees that a soft/overrated team that gets in on hype and a good record against bad competition won't actually win the National Championship.  If they do, then they earned it with two top 5 wins with everything on the line.

I don't like Ohio State.  However, they have lost just 2 games over the last 3 years.  I won't be upset if they win out and make the final 4.  Their case won't be much different than that of a 1 loss PAC12/BIG12 team. 

Watching everyone play this year, FSU is almost sure to get in but I don't know if I'd pick them against any top 10 team.  I hope they lose somewhere along the way because they just don't seem to be that good this season...in spite of their record.

This is absolutely disgusting, especially with a loss to a bad Virginia Tech team at home:

Ohio State (Big Ten)

8/30 Sat vs. Navy W 34 17 @ Baltimore, MD
9/6 Sat vs. Virginia Tech L 21 35
9/13 Sat vs. Kent W 66 0
9/27 Sat vs. Cincinnati W 50 28
10/4 Sat @ *Maryland W 52 24
10/18 Sat vs. *Rutgers W 56 17
10/25 Sat @ *Penn State W 31 24
11/1 Sat vs. *Illinois W 55 14
11/8 Sat @ *Michigan State W 49 37
11/15 Sat @ *Minnesota W 31 24
11/22 Sat vs. *Indiana   
11/29 Sat vs. *Michigan   
  9-1
   445 220

[demonHOG1013]

Michigan will beat OSU and all will be fine

[The Hogfather]

Michigan will beat OSU and all will be fine

No way.  And OSU will be pushed into the CFP.

[hogcard1964]

Follow the money.

If it comes down to Ohio St., Miss St., TCU or Baylor, Ohio St. will be there.

Realistically, the Big 10 shouldn't have a representative.  They're awful.

[Dr. Starcs]

And that Ohio st schedule is why I even have more respect for Bielema. He could have continued playing that type of schedule for several more years. But he chose us. Kind of the anti-urban.

[The Hogfather]

And that Ohio st schedule is why I even have more respect for Bielema. He could have continued playing that type of schedule for several more years. But he chose us. Kind of the anti-urban.

We're lucky to have him.  Glad he decided to make the move.

[hogsanity]

The entire idea if a NC in fbs football has, is, and will continue to be a farce.  You can't have a group of 125 ( or whatever it is this year ) in 11 groups, with such a variety of schedules, some with and some without conf champ games, some with and some without divisions. Unbalanced schedules within the leagues, and then expect at the end of the year to put 4 teams in a playoff without massive controversy.

Until the big boys split into 64-80 teams, in 4 or 5 leagues, and then have a 8 or 12 team playoff out of that, the NC continues to be mythical, imo.

[bigredone]

I agree with you on TCU/Bsylor but non conf wins are huge.  Only way to truly judge outside your conference.  Games like Oregon/Mich st are huge for measuring those opportunities.  Oregon st just beat AZ st.  Who is to say Oregon st is the pac 12 north's Arkansas?  We don't know because these teams never play each other.  There is a lot of variables involved and the committee will look at them all. 

The only correction I would make to this are non-conference wins are huge when your conference sucks hind teat. Little 12 teams could not compete for the NC in this SEC West. They probably would not be ranked. As bad as  I hate FSU they are legit. Outside of them I really don't see anyone other team/conference that could claim to be competitive with the SEC West.