Miss St and Ark Passing Stats: Please throw against them

[Hogopotamus]

One thing that sets Miss St apart from your typical #1 team is their abysmal total defense (91st in FBS, 440 yds/gm) and passing defense (122nd, 322 yds/gm) ranks. Their scoring defense (29th in FBS, 6th in SEC) is however not bad and reflects their very good red zone D. Their bad rankings have been attributed to other teams falling behind early and turning to the pass to come back, basically a way of saying their pass D is fine, other teams just abandon their typical game plan and throw a ton. I decided to look closer to see if this was the case.

Miss St typically gives up 127% the passing yards an SEC opponent averages. This can be attributed to the more passing attempts theory. However, their SEC opponents have gotten 7.55 yds/attempt and a 55% completion rate vs miss st. These same teams average 7.22 yds/attempt and a 59% completion rate (this includes cupcake games).

So while I don't think Miss st pass defense is as horrible as their rankings suggest, they are still not good, only average. Teams were able to beat their season average yds/attempt and come close to their typical completion percentage, while also getting more yards then usual. If Arkansas can exploit that, we have a chance.

Looking at the same for Arkansas, we gave up 98% the yards an SEC opponent typically averages, a 59% completion rate and 10.2 yds/attempt. Our opponents averaged a 65% completion % and 8.3 yds per attempt. So while we have given up way too many yds/attempt we have been at least respectable against the pass. (This actually shows what our pass d problem really is, long passes where our safeties are involved in the coverage, our short passing D has actually been quite good)

So overall, I think for us to have a chance in this game we have to have a good day chucking the ball around. As the sbnation article after the Georgia game pointed out (Turn em loose), Allen is actually quite good from shotgun (70% completion against Georgia from shotgun) and against UAB we finally saw some draw plays from shotgun. If they line Allen from shotgun more, and mix in some draw plays to keep their defense guessing, I think we have a shot to put a lot of points on the board. The real question remains will the return of Ellis and Toliver mean the return of the dominant D we saw against Bama?

[PORKULATOR]

Their safeties can't cover our TE's. And... If we can design a few plays to get Edwards or Sprinkle one on one, that should work to our favor... Those two are big guys and MSU don't have the size to win those battles if BA throws good passes.

[naturalbornpigger]

Appreciate the analysis Hogo.  I'm curious how you would compare MSU to BAMA.  Less the key mistakes, I feel like that was our most complete effort against a high quality opponent.

[PorkRinds]

I was going to post something along these lines, but without so much good research.  If we don't win, we will likely be accused of 'abandoning the run' but that's pretty much what we need to do this week.  We need to pass, and use the run to keep them honest.  Pass defense is their weakness.  Put BA in the shotgun so he has more time, and go for it.  Run from the shotgun more as well.  This gives us our best shot IMO.

[lumphog]

Good thread......THIS is how we beat em.....I would like to see Sprinkle out wide. He'd be dangerous with Henry & Derby attacking the middle.

[Hogopotamus]

Good thread......THIS is how we beat em.....I would like to see Sprinkle out wide. He'd be dangerous with Henry & Derby attacking the middle.

I agree I think our only chance of beating them is attacking their weaker pass defense, and mixing in the run game just enough to keep the box stacked so our receivers can get open. I am hopeful, as against UAB (which can be thought of as a tune-up game before Miss st) we did pass out of shotgun about 40% of the passing plays and we mixed in some draw plays. I don't think we should abandon play action entirely, but it really doesn't have the desired effect when used so often.

Forgot to add: My biggest concern is Bielema and Chaney seem to only go to shotgun when a) long third down and b) we are way behind (see: Georgia). I hope to see us line up in shotgun on first down and in short 2nd down territory more to keep defenses guessing. You can still run a draw from this if you want and it also gives BA the best chances of hitting a pass.

[naturalbornpigger]

General agreement with the passing game as our primary weapon in a win.  However a couple of concerns:

-MSST leads the league in sacks.  Max protect may be required.
-Where has Sprinkle been?  Looks great off the bus, but has not made an impact.
-Do we have a receiver that can step up and be a playmaker?  Our number one receiver ranks 18th in the league.

[PorkRinds]

We are going to have to use quick hit passes out of shotgun to keep BA off the turf.  If we try to stick to the under center PA pass game, it could get ugly, and leave BA hurt. 

[regi]

We should be able to score enough, key to game is controling Dak and that little bowling ball back they have. Keep em under 31, we got a shot. A good one.

[WarPig88]

With all that passing against them, no one has beaten them with it yet. The lower completion pct against them also says something about their pass defense as well.

I think believing you have to pass a lot to beat these guys is fools gold.

This will come down to our defense first of all. Secondly we have to be able to run the ball well because that is what we do best.

If we find ourselves having to pass it well to stay in the game, we are in trouble. We just don't do that very well for whatever the reason.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

One thing that sets Miss St apart from your typical #1 team is their abysmal total defense (91st in FBS, 440 yds/gm) and passing defense (122nd, 322 yds/gm) ranks. Their scoring defense (29th in FBS, 6th in SEC) is however not bad and reflects their very good red zone D. Their bad rankings have been attributed to other teams falling behind early and turning to the pass to come back, basically a way of saying their pass D is fine, other teams just abandon their typical game plan and throw a ton. I decided to look closer to see if this was the case.

Miss St typically gives up 127% the passing yards an SEC opponent averages. This can be attributed to the more passing attempts theory. However, their SEC opponents have gotten 7.55 yds/attempt and a 55% completion rate vs miss st. These same teams average 7.22 yds/attempt and a 59% completion rate (this includes cupcake games).

So while I don't think Miss st pass defense is as horrible as their rankings suggest, they are still not good, only average. Teams were able to beat their season average yds/attempt and come close to their typical completion percentage, while also getting more yards then usual. If Arkansas can exploit that, we have a chance.

Looking at the same for Arkansas, we gave up 98% the yards an SEC opponent typically averages, a 59% completion rate and 10.2 yds/attempt. Our opponents averaged a 65% completion % and 8.3 yds per attempt. So while we have given up way too many yds/attempt we have been at least respectable against the pass. (This actually shows what our pass d problem really is, long passes where our safeties are involved in the coverage, our short passing D has actually been quite good)

So overall, I think for us to have a chance in this game we have to have a good day chucking the ball around. As the sbnation article after the Georgia game pointed out (Turn em loose), Allen is actually quite good from shotgun (70% completion against Georgia from shotgun) and against UAB we finally saw some draw plays from shotgun. If they line Allen from shotgun more, and mix in some draw plays to keep their defense guessing, I think we have a shot to put a lot of points on the board. The real question remains will the return of Ellis and Toliver mean the return of the dominant D we saw against Bama?

I might also add that they are ranked #11 nationally and 4th in the SEC in defensive interceptions.

[hogsanity]

-Do we have a receiver that can step up and be a playmaker?  Our number one receiver ranks 18th in the league.

The answer to that is the answer to many of our passing game "problems" and the answer is NO.

[AugustaHog]

I think the biggest thing that we have seen happen when we go to shotgun, is that our TEs are often lined up out wide.  They don't have to worry about pass pro before getting into their routes.  If we can involve our TEs, the rest of the passing game will see greater success too.  Henry and Derby are two of our best weapons in the passing game and we can't afford for them to have 2-3 catches between them.  I think it would be interesting to see if we can develop a running game out of shotgun sets using the pistol.  If we could be successful running and our passing maintains the same efficiency, our offense would be pretty unstoppable.  This would definitely not be your typical CBB I Form set, but I think it could achieve the same goals.

[lumphog]

We should be able to score enough, key to game is controling Dak and that little bowling ball back they have. Keep em under 31, we got a shot. A good one.

I think our LBs can handle them...."IF" they play like they did against Bama.....we can win this game......If they can stop Bama's RBs , they can stop Dak & Balls. I've been very impressed with our starting LBs.

[tophawg19]

The answer to that is the answer to many of our passing game "problems" and the answer is NO.

And you'd be wrong again . We  have several WR'S  and two TE'S that can be and are play makers if our QB could throw deep without underthrowing and could get them the ball on time . To  often our WR has to stop and wait on the ball , giving d-backs the ability to close and break up the passes . Our lack of a big play, deep ball QB allows the defense to cheat up because they don't have to respect the deep ball

[hogsanity]

How do you know that? Our passing game is so predictable it is easy to defend.

We run 3 TE's a lot so when we actually do send our a receiver, no one is the least bit fooled and less likely to bite on any fakes, etc.

We have 3 outstanding pass catching TE's in Henry, Derby, and Sprinkle. They aren't even difference makers in this passing scheme.

I remember Petrino was able to shake DJ Williams loose his first year here with Mr. 2 for 21 passing the ball and ZERO other game breaking options at the wideout that season.

It's clear you love coaches who run the ball and neglect their passing game because you always blame the kids for the ineffectiveness rather than saying that the scheme might in some way be responsible as well.

In BP's 1st year we had Adams, Wright, Childs and Gragg ( untill he hurt his ankle ).  Go back and watch the hi lights of those games. Even as true FR those 3 wideouts had tremendous speed, and could just beat their man off the line.

This team has no one, not one guy, that is going to line up against sec corners, and just run past them. 

[hogsanity]

And you'd be wrong again . We  have several WR'S  and two TE'S that can be and are play makers if our QB could throw deep without underthrowing and could get them the ball on time . To  often our WR has to stop and wait on the ball , giving d-backs the ability to close and break up the passes . Our lack of a big play, deep ball QB allows the defense to cheat up because they don't have to respect the deep ball

The only people that think the Hogs receivers are anything other than average are those with some sort of vendetta against BA.  You will see the difference next year in the guys playing Wr this year, and Jo Jo, Pettway, and Hill.  Those three will remind people of Adams, Wright and Childs. 

[hogsanity]

I've seen Hatcher open multiple times this year only to have BA throw it away.  National analysts have repeatedly pointed it out at halftime during our games.  Do they also have an agenda?

I don't have a vendetta against Allen... pretty sure every Hog fan wants the guy to succeed because that means the team succeeds.  It's really that simple even though you try to make it something else.   

They have also pointed out the overall lack of play maker at receiver, and they have done so in EVERY broadcast. Do they have an agenda?

You and a few others blame every perceived offensive shortcoming on BA.

[Hogopotamus]

It is true that Allen has neglected open receivers several times this year. This happens almost exclusively on PA however, and I think is due to not having time to go through his progressions. Our O-line is great for run blocking, but when asked to pass block against fast, experienced DEs and pass rushes they are too slow to give BA much more then a few seconds. I honestly believe this is why BA is much better from shotgun; he has time to scan the field for the open receiver, that extra 2 seconds is critical.

[AugustaHog]

Hogo, I agree with you here.  I think BA is clearly more comfortable from the shotgun.  Long-term, I like the pro-style, I Form offense that we have seen thus far.  In the short-term though, I think we would benefit from sculpting our offense to fit BA better.  Truly great coaches and coordinators figure out a way to get the most out of the players they have.  I don't think BA is the perfect QB for what we want to do, but Chaney has to do a better job of getting him comfortable and putting him in good spots to take what is there. 

[HF#1]

I imagine it will be another 40+ pass attempt game.  We'll be down big by halftime and have to sling it to try to make the score respectable.

[Grizzlyfan]

look at the end of 3rd quarter scores of Miss. State's games:
42-0
47-27
35-3
31-10
41-17
28-13 (halftime score)

If you have that kind of lead what does your secondary usually do?  And what does the team that trailing usually do?

[majp51]

look at the end of 3rd quarter scores of Miss. State's games:
42-0
47-27
35-3
31-10
41-17
28-13 (halftime score)

If you have that kind of lead what does your secondary usually do?  And what does the team that trailing usually do?

In addition, Mullen and Staff have been hellbent in rotating their "1B" team in. Most of the Yards in the Passing game seem to come late or against the 1B Defense.

MSU's Defense overall isn't a Bama or Ole Miss defense, but it is significantly better than their "Yards Allowed" indicate.

[Hogwild]

The only people that think the Hogs receivers are anything other than average are those with some sort of vendetta against BA.  You will see the difference next year in the guys playing Wr this year, and Jo Jo, Pettway, and Hill.  Those three will remind people of Adams, Wright and Childs.

Then why aren't they on the field? I agree that our current WRs are below SEC standards, but I feel the same way about BA.

[hogsanity]

Then why aren't they on the field? I agree that our current WRs are below SEC standards, but I feel the same way about BA.

Well, Pettway and Hill are both still in highschool. Jo Jo was injured early, and they had planned to red shirt him, although that could change by this weekend.

[longbore]

State has given up 1124 passing yards this year while leading by 15 points or more.

[Hogwild]

Well, Pettway and Hill are both still in highschool. Jo Jo was injured early, and they had planned to red shirt him, although that could change by this weekend.

I didn't know about the injury, what did he hurt?

[hogsanity]

I didn't know about the injury, what did he hurt?

I had heard it was a foot.  They had hoped to play him against A&M. He has been dinged up off and on since fall camp started in August.

[WarPig88]

They have also pointed out the overall lack of play maker at receiver, and they have done so in EVERY broadcast. Do they have an agenda?

You and a few others blame every perceived offensive shortcoming on BA.

I have never heard a broadcast team criticize a coach's overall scheme. They will question in game decisions, but never his approach.

However, I did hear on a sports radio station just this week where a former BCS coach said he believed that CBB's approach to passing will never work in the SEC.

But it's easier to blame the receivers. I understand.

[hogsanity]

I have never heard a broadcast team criticize a coach's overall scheme. They will question in game decisions, but never his approach.

However, I did hear on a sports radio station just this week where a former BCS coach said he believed that CBB's approach to passing will never work in the SEC.

But it's easier to blame the receivers. I understand.

It's been working for LSU and Bama for around a decade. And most people that post here think Les Miles is a stupid coach, yet he can make it work.   

If a receiver physically can not beat his defender, is that blame or pointing out a fact? 

[WarPig88]

It's been working for LSU and Bama for around a decade. And most people that post here think Les Miles is a stupid coach, yet he can make it work.   

If a receiver physically can not beat his defender, is that blame or pointing out a fact?

You think Bama and LSU are running 3 TE formations a large portion of the time?

That's what we run from most of the time when the game is tight. The other team can tell by our personnel what's coming so our receivers have little chance catching the other team off guard like Bama and LSU can.

Seriously, you think we are emulating Bama and LSU? Think Stanford.

By the way, Bama was 4th in the nation in passing efficiency for the season going into last week with a qb that is not know for being a good passer.

If you think that is a result of talent, then you are way over simplifying the situation.

[jdevers]

Bama this year is nothing unlike the last ten offensively.  Also, Alabama's passing offense is basically get the ball to first round draft pick Cooper, if he was on our team I assure you we would be more productive in the air.

[WarPig88]

Bama this year is nothing unlike the last ten offensively.  Also, Alabama's passing offense is basically get the ball to first round draft pick Cooper, if he was on our team I assure you we would be more productive in the air.

It's still nothing like CBB's either.

I suggest you look at their passing stats over the last decade. It will surprise you how many 300 yard passing games they've had.

Then look at CBB's teams. You will see a stark contrast.

I guess you two think that Bama threw for 400 yards this year to one wr? And no, he isn't double covered every play like some on here have said.

Why can't you guys even entertain the idea it could be a product of the scheme?