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What The Playoff Committee Is Getting Right

Started by NaturalStateReb, October 29, 2014, 02:04:15 pm

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NaturalStateReb

The first set of playoff committee rankings is out, and I for one find them refreshing.  I think that the committee has already improved on the old BCS rankings in some key ways:

1.  It's About Wins, Not Losses--how many times did we hear about how 1-Loss Team X had a reality quality loss back during the BCS years?  That sort of logic was incredibly common and incredibly misplaced--it turned the whole project of finding the best teams on its head.  By focusing on the only loss of the season, the BCS system basically found itself discounting 11/12ths of the season.  There's really no such thing as a "quality loss"; all losses are bad losses.  There are such things as quality wins, though, especially if you have more than one.  We should be deciding post season on victories, not losses. 

2.  Forget January, the Playoffs Are Going Right Now--some are shocked that 4 SEC teams in are in the top 5.  But if you look closely, you can see what the playoff committee is doing here, and not just about the SEC--teams are going to get a chance to play their ways in or out.  #3 Auburn and #4 Ole Miss play this weekend, and you know that's an elimination game.  #1 Mississippi State and #6 Alabama have a date circled on Nov. 15, with a loss eliminating the Tide.  #2 Florida State and #25 Louisville meet Thursday, where a Seminole loss would likely eliminate FSU.  #7 TCU and #9 K State meet in two weeks; if K-State survives, they'll get a chance to knock #13 Baylor out at the end of the season if #18 Oklahoma doesn't get them first.  #5 Oregon is going to play #17 Utah; a win there sets up a championship game with either #12 Arizona or #14 Arizona State.  #8 Michigan State has a date with #16 Ohio State coming up.

3.  The Other Polls Don't Matter--the selection committee clearly didn't care about the AP poll or the borderline ridiculous coaches poll.  Fortunately, this has let them shuck all the preseason baggage that these polls usually entail.

4.  Brand Names Don't Matter, Either--just ask Notre Dame, Ohio State, or even Alabama.  The committee isn't spellbound by mystique, just by results.  What do these teams have in common?  They really haven't beaten anyone of consequence.

5.  Forget All That Nonconference Crap--the argument about nonconference play has always baffled me.  I know analysts use it as a measuring stick in the absence of anything else, but at best nonconference  play is 1/3 of the season, and most teams only schedule one quality nonconference opponent anyway, so we're really discussing a 1/12 of the schedule.  Nonconference vs. conference isn't a major factor, just win quality.  If nonconference is so great, then Notre Dame and BYU would have the best schedules in the country, by definition.

6.  Notre Dame and BYU, You're on the Clock--Living outside of a conference, the Irish and the Cougars may never be able to muster the strength of schedule necessary to crack the top 4 without running the table, and that might not even be enough for BYU.  If FSU beats Louisville on Thursday night, ND will have only played two ranked teams, and will have lost to at least one (the other is an upcoming game against Arizona State).  BYU's not a factor anymore, but their schedule doesn't have a ranked team.

7.  The Big XII Championship May Be Back Before You Know It--if a 1-loss Big XII team doesn't make the playoffs, strength of schedule may be a major factor.  They can talk about "one true champion" all they want, but the truth of the matter is that everyone else will be getting in one final game against a major opponent while they're not.  The game went away because Texas and OU thought it made the going tougher; Texas isn't in position to worry, and 1-loss Big XII teams may find that they need that additional game to get in.  It won't happen this year, since it's not going to cost OU or Texas a chance, but the Sooners and Horns may see Baylor, TCU, or K-State getting turned away as a cautionary tale.  That means taking two more teams to actually have 12 in the Big XII.  Boise State, BYU, Cincinnati, and Memphis are logical choices.
"It's a trap!"--Houston Nutt and Admiral Ackbar, although Ackbar never called that play or ate that frito pie.

Inhogswetrust

October 29, 2014, 02:11:46 pm #1 Last Edit: October 29, 2014, 02:34:16 pm by Inhogswetrust
On number 7 the little 12 championship game went away because they lost members and don't have 12 teams anymore. True that tejas and ou didn't want it. You are correct in that they would have to add two more to get back to 12 members to get it back. Memphis and Boise are no where near logical choices as possibilities. Cincy and BYU are good potentially.
If I'm going to cheer players and coaches in victory, I damn sure ought to be man enough to stand with them in defeat.

"Why some people are so drawn to the irrational is something that has always puzzled me" - James Randi

 

bkjbearcat

"That means taking two more teams to actually have 12 in the Big XII.  Boise State, BYU, Cincinnati, and Memphis are logical choices."

I thought it was all #SECBias?

The Texas Ten will choose someone who will be happy to be there. Cincinnati seems right simply as a half way point school for West Virgina won't feel lonely. BYU would be good too for name value.

But this is the Texas Ten. So my guess it it will be UTEP, SMU or Houston. Some school Texas can tell jump and they say how high.
B-E-A-R-C-A-T-S BEARCATS, BEARCATS GOOOOOOO BEARCATS!!!!!!!<br /><br />D2 National Champs in Football: 1998, 1999, 2009, 2013, 2015, 2016<br /><br />D2 National Champs in Mens Basketball: 2017, 2019, No.1 team in 2020,2021, 2022

NaturalStateReb

Quote from: bkjbearcat on October 29, 2014, 02:14:29 pm
"That means taking two more teams to actually have 12 in the Big XII.  Boise State, BYU, Cincinnati, and Memphis are logical choices."

I thought it was all #SECBias?

The Texas Ten will choose someone who will be happy to be there. Cincinnati seems right simply as a half way point school for West Virgina won't feel lonely. BYU would be good too for name value.

But this is the Texas Ten. So my guess it it will be UTEP, SMU or Houston. Some school Texas can tell jump and they say how high.

I can't see those schools adding enough value to the Big XII to make it worth it.  I'm sure that's what Inhogswetrust was driving at about Boise and Memphis.  I think there are limited options for the Big XII in the near term, and none of them are great.  I think Boise is in about the same position that TCU was in coming into the Big XII, and Memphis would allow the Big XII to plant a flag in SEC country while staying in the same timezone. 
"It's a trap!"--Houston Nutt and Admiral Ackbar, although Ackbar never called that play or ate that frito pie.

Inhogswetrust

Quote from: bkjbearcat on October 29, 2014, 02:14:29 pm
"That means taking two more teams to actually have 12 in the Big XII.  Boise State, BYU, Cincinnati, and Memphis are logical choices."

I thought it was all #SECBias?

The Texas Ten will choose someone who will be happy to be there. Cincinnati seems right simply as a half way point school for West Virgina won't feel lonely. BYU would be good too for name value.

But this is the Texas Ten. So my guess it it will be UTEP, SMU or Houston. Some school Texas can tell jump and they say how high.

None of the above schools.
If I'm going to cheer players and coaches in victory, I damn sure ought to be man enough to stand with them in defeat.

"Why some people are so drawn to the irrational is something that has always puzzled me" - James Randi

NaturalStateReb

Quote from: Inhogswetrust on October 29, 2014, 02:33:28 pm
None of the above schools.

How do you see it shaking out?  Think they stay at 10?  Other schools? Or something more radical, like some schools leaving for the Pac-12?
"It's a trap!"--Houston Nutt and Admiral Ackbar, although Ackbar never called that play or ate that frito pie.

Inhogswetrust

Quote from: NaturalStateReb on October 29, 2014, 02:29:52 pm
I can't see those schools adding enough value to the Big XII to make it worth it.  I'm sure that's what Inhogswetrust was driving at about Boise and Memphis.  I think there are limited options for the Big XII in the near term, and none of them are great.  I think Boise is in about the same position that TCU was in coming into the Big XII, and Memphis would allow the Big XII to plant a flag in SEC country while staying in the same timezone. 

Yep. Those texas schools he mentioned don't add any value to the little 12 or an increase in footprint. As far as Memphis is concerned I'd be shocked if they were invited to join. In some ways they've actually taken a step back in conference affiliation when the Big East imploded. Same for Cincy but Cincy brings more to the table in my opinion.
If I'm going to cheer players and coaches in victory, I damn sure ought to be man enough to stand with them in defeat.

"Why some people are so drawn to the irrational is something that has always puzzled me" - James Randi

HF#1

Rankings right now mean nothing, absolutely nothing.
"We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid."  <br /><br />Benjamin Franklin

Inhogswetrust

Quote from: NaturalStateReb on October 29, 2014, 02:34:56 pm
How do you see it shaking out?  Think they stay at 10?  Other schools? Or something more radical, like some schools leaving for the Pac-12?

I honestly think it is too early to tell. It may come down to how things play out with the new playoff and them getting a team in it over the next 5 or so years. Also need to take into consideration the media contracts and how long before they can be renegotiated, etc. I'm not sure what that timeframe is. I agree with those that have said since the last round of expansion and the new playoff that things made have settled down for a few years. But stranger things have happened! If you only take into consideration the media and playoff issues then I think they would eventually expand but not soon. That doesn't take into account other potential HUGE questions in the labor/courts/pay/cost of attendance issues and how those affect the NCAA and it's structure.
If I'm going to cheer players and coaches in victory, I damn sure ought to be man enough to stand with them in defeat.

"Why some people are so drawn to the irrational is something that has always puzzled me" - James Randi

Cinco de Hogo

Possibly, Texas days of marauding around in B12 territory is over.  If they are looking to expand market a Louisana school would fit and Cincy would too.  BYU and Utah State, BSU, one or both New Mexico schools, Nevada, all will be considered if all conferences go to 14-16 teams.

trippigs

Yep...I tend to like it so far as well. They are not hiding behind some obscure mathmetical computer ranking which is refreshing. Really like that they ranked only after having a sufficient amount of games to evaluate. Actually, they could have waited until the end of the regular season as far as I am concerned. Thought Jeff Long represented well.

Inhogswetrust

Quote from: Cinco de Hogo on October 29, 2014, 02:44:51 pm
Possibly, Texas days of marauding around in B12 territory is over.  If they are looking to expand market a Louisana school would fit and Cincy would too.

The question there would be which Louisiana school brings "pizazz" to the table. At this point none.
If I'm going to cheer players and coaches in victory, I damn sure ought to be man enough to stand with them in defeat.

"Why some people are so drawn to the irrational is something that has always puzzled me" - James Randi

The_Iceman

Quote from: NaturalStateReb on October 29, 2014, 02:04:15 pm
7.  The Big XII Championship May Be Back Before You Know It--if a 1-loss Big XII team doesn't make the playoffs, strength of schedule may be a major factor.  They can talk about "one true champion" all they want, but the truth of the matter is that everyone else will be getting in one final game against a major opponent while they're not.  The game went away because Texas and OU thought it made the going tougher; Texas isn't in position to worry, and 1-loss Big XII teams may find that they need that additional game to get in.  It won't happen this year, since it's not going to cost OU or Texas a chance, but the Sooners and Horns may see Baylor, TCU, or K-State getting turned away as a cautionary tale.  That means taking two more teams to actually have 12 in the Big XII.  Boise State, BYU, Cincinnati, and Memphis are logical choices.

Big 12 Currently:
Texas
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU
Kansas
Kansas St.
Iowa State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St.
West Virginia

I like the idea of adding BYU. That seems like the most logical fit for the Big 12. Cincinnati would be a great addition as well. They need to find a conference, and with WVU now in the Big 12, they will help tie it together.

 

Cinco de Hogo

Quote from: Inhogswetrust on October 29, 2014, 02:46:22 pm
The question there would be which Louisiana school brings "pizazz" to the table. At this point none.

I disagree,  I can't keep them separated but one of them is competive and if they were in the B12 they would bring a good audience from them Louisana folks.  They do like football afteral the supported the Aint's for a loooonng time.

Smokehouse

I like that they left Ole Miss in the top 4. Signals that when you lose is no longer as important as your wins or how you lost. In the BCS system a team would never still be making the cut the week after the loss. "Losing = dropping in the polls" was just too ingrained into the system.
QuoteSometimes a warrior just has to lay down on the ground there for a minute and just have a good bleed. Just bleed.

Words of wisdom from John Pelphrey.

hogsanity

Quote from: Cinco de Hogo on October 29, 2014, 02:52:52 pm
I disagree,  I can't keep them separated but one of them is competive and if they were in the B12 they would bring a good audience from them Louisana folks.  They do like football afteral the supported the Aint's for a loooonng time.


The question is do they bring any value to the conference as a program, not just as a football team so that the big12 can have a championship game again. What is their baseball program like? basketball?   

The reason the pac10 ( before Utah and Co came in ) never called Boise St is because outside of football their athletics program is horrid, and their academics are not great either.   They brought no value to the league, as a whole.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

NaturalStateReb

Quote from: Smokehouse on October 29, 2014, 03:29:44 pm
I like that they left Ole Miss in the top 4. Signals that when you lose is no longer as important as your wins or how you lost. In the BCS system a team would never still be making the cut the week after the loss. "Losing = dropping in the polls" was just too ingrained into the system.

That's a great point, and one I wish I'd included.  Always though it was stupid that a team was punished if it lost late and forgiven if it lost early.
"It's a trap!"--Houston Nutt and Admiral Ackbar, although Ackbar never called that play or ate that frito pie.

hogsanity

Quote from: NaturalStateReb on October 29, 2014, 04:25:28 pm
That's a great point, and one I wish I'd included.  Always though it was stupid that a team was punished if it lost late and forgiven if it lost early.

It really does look like teams are going to get held to the fire for playing weak sister schedules. It is not FSu's fault that the acc is horrible, but I can guarantee if they lose to UL, they will drop out of the top 4, unlike old misses, who stayed in despite losing.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

Oklahawg

The "late loss" vs "early loss" is critical to parse out so that it is consistent.

I felt that OM losing at night at LSU reflects the historical difficulty of winning there. A good thing.
I am a Hog fan. I was long before my name was etched, twice, on the sidewalks on the Hill. I will be long after Sam Pittman and Eric Mussleman are coaches, and Hunter Yuracheck is AD. I am a Hog fan when we win, when we lose and when we don't play. I love hearing the UA band play the National Anthem on game day, but I sing along to the Alma Mater. I am a Hog fan.<br /><br />A liberal education is at the heart of a civil society, and at the heart of a liberal education is the act of teaching. - Bart Giamatti <br /><br />"It is a puzzling thing. The truth knocks on the door and you say, 'Go away, I'm looking for the truth,' and so it goes away. Puzzling." ― Robert M. Pirsig<br /><br />Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.  – Yogi Berra

Inhogswetrust

Quote from: Cinco de Hogo on October 29, 2014, 02:52:52 pm
I disagree,  I can't keep them separated but one of them is competive and if they were in the B12 they would bring a good audience from them Louisana folks.  They do like football afteral the supported the Aint's for a loooonng time.

Not ONE school in Louisiana other than LSU and they are not going anywhere else, is competitive enough with a large enough budget to join a conference like the little 12. If you can't keep them separated enough to remember which one you think it is then that says a lot about it.   
If I'm going to cheer players and coaches in victory, I damn sure ought to be man enough to stand with them in defeat.

"Why some people are so drawn to the irrational is something that has always puzzled me" - James Randi

jm

It will eventually be a matchup of conference champions or something similar. Politics will never allow 2 or 3 teams from one conference to make the play offs at the expense of other conferences. The PAC,B1G, etc... and the governors of those states will come totally uncorked if they aren't represented in the playoffs. They play offs will probably expand to include all conference champions and 1 or 2 wildcard teams eventually.

HogsArePeopleToo

On the Big 12.....adding Colorado State along with BYU makes more sense....particularly when you look at the map.   Better addition than any of the Texas/Louisianna schools available.  Boise maybe...but none of the others make sense to me.

WizardofhOgZ


Nice OP, leading to interesting discussion/thread.

+1

Quote from: NaturalStateReb on October 29, 2014, 02:04:15 pm
The first set of playoff committee rankings is out, and I for one find them refreshing.  I think that the committee has already improved on the old BCS rankings in some key ways:

1.  It's About Wins, Not Losses--how many times did we hear about how 1-Loss Team X had a reality quality loss back during the BCS years?  That sort of logic was incredibly common and incredibly misplaced--it turned the whole project of finding the best teams on its head.  By focusing on the only loss of the season, the BCS system basically found itself discounting 11/12ths of the season.  There's really no such thing as a "quality loss"; all losses are bad losses.  There are such things as quality wins, though, especially if you have more than one.  We should be deciding post season on victories, not losses. 

2.  Forget January, the Playoffs Are Going Right Now--some are shocked that 4 SEC teams in are in the top 5.  But if you look closely, you can see what the playoff committee is doing here, and not just about the SEC--teams are going to get a chance to play their ways in or out.  #3 Auburn and #4 Ole Miss play this weekend, and you know that's an elimination game.  #1 Mississippi State and #6 Alabama have a date circled on Nov. 15, with a loss eliminating the Tide.  #2 Florida State and #25 Louisville meet Thursday, where a Seminole loss would likely eliminate FSU.  #7 TCU and #9 K State meet in two weeks; if K-State survives, they'll get a chance to knock #13 Baylor out at the end of the season if #18 Oklahoma doesn't get them first.  #5 Oregon is going to play #17 Utah; a win there sets up a championship game with either #12 Arizona or #14 Arizona State.  #8 Michigan State has a date with #16 Ohio State coming up.

3.  The Other Polls Don't Matter--the selection committee clearly didn't care about the AP poll or the borderline ridiculous coaches poll.  Fortunately, this has let them shuck all the preseason baggage that these polls usually entail.

4.  Brand Names Don't Matter, Either--just ask Notre Dame, Ohio State, or even Alabama.  The committee isn't spellbound by mystique, just by results.  What do these teams have in common?  They really haven't beaten anyone of consequence.

5.  Forget All That Nonconference Crap--the argument about nonconference play has always baffled me.  I know analysts use it as a measuring stick in the absence of anything else, but at best nonconference  play is 1/3 of the season, and most teams only schedule one quality nonconference opponent anyway, so we're really discussing a 1/12 of the schedule.  Nonconference vs. conference isn't a major factor, just win quality.  If nonconference is so great, then Notre Dame and BYU would have the best schedules in the country, by definition.

6.  Notre Dame and BYU, You're on the Clock--Living outside of a conference, the Irish and the Cougars may never be able to muster the strength of schedule necessary to crack the top 4 without running the table, and that might not even be enough for BYU.  If FSU beats Louisville on Thursday night, ND will have only played two ranked teams, and will have lost to at least one (the other is an upcoming game against Arizona State).  BYU's not a factor anymore, but their schedule doesn't have a ranked team.

7.  The Big XII Championship May Be Back Before You Know It--if a 1-loss Big XII team doesn't make the playoffs, strength of schedule may be a major factor.  They can talk about "one true champion" all they want, but the truth of the matter is that everyone else will be getting in one final game against a major opponent while they're not.  The game went away because Texas and OU thought it made the going tougher; Texas isn't in position to worry, and 1-loss Big XII teams may find that they need that additional game to get in.  It won't happen this year, since it's not going to cost OU or Texas a chance, but the Sooners and Horns may see Baylor, TCU, or K-State getting turned away as a cautionary tale.  That means taking two more teams to actually have 12 in the Big XII.  Boise State, BYU, Cincinnati, and Memphis are logical choices.

Iwastherein1969

Quote from: Smokehouse on October 29, 2014, 03:29:44 pm
I like that they left Ole Miss in the top 4. Signals that when you lose is no longer as important as your wins or how you lost. In the BCS system a team would never still be making the cut the week after the loss. "Losing = dropping in the polls" was just too ingrained into the system.
agree 100% with this....Ole Miss would be like 11th and you'd either see Ohio State in the top five or within striking distance
The long Grey line will never fail our country.

 

Pig Worshipper


Excellent post. Who knows how it's all going to end but this is a promising beginning. The playoff was long overdue and I think it will make for added interest in college football.

Hogfaniam

Big 12 needs a member or two?

Somewhere there are Arkansas St. Horshacks going "oo, Oo, oo, oo Mr. Kotter"


[attachment deleted by admin]
"My dog Sam eats purple flowers"

NaturalStateReb

Quote from: Hogfaniam on October 29, 2014, 05:59:00 pm
Big 12 needs a member or two?

Somewhere there are Arkansas St. Horshacks going "oo, Oo, oo, oo Mr. Kotter"


Well, that's a pipe dream, but if the Big XII took Memphis I wouldn't be shocked to see A-State end up in C-USA.
"It's a trap!"--Houston Nutt and Admiral Ackbar, although Ackbar never called that play or ate that frito pie.

Inhogswetrust

Quote from: NaturalStateReb on October 29, 2014, 09:50:29 pm
Well, that's a pipe dream, but if the Big XII took Memphis I wouldn't be shocked to see A-State end up in C-USA.

There are several Sunbelt members that might enter into a discussion of CUSA.
If I'm going to cheer players and coaches in victory, I damn sure ought to be man enough to stand with them in defeat.

"Why some people are so drawn to the irrational is something that has always puzzled me" - James Randi

NaturalStateReb

Quote from: Inhogswetrust on October 30, 2014, 09:18:21 am
There are several Sunbelt members that might enter into a discussion of CUSA.

Truly, although I do hope they take A-State.  I've thought for a long time that C-USA membership should have been a mid-range goal for ASU's program.  They've been successful enough recently to make entry a possibility if a spot opens.  The bowl bids and better matchups would help greatly.
"It's a trap!"--Houston Nutt and Admiral Ackbar, although Ackbar never called that play or ate that frito pie.

WarPig88

Quote from: NaturalStateReb on October 29, 2014, 02:04:15 pm
The first set of playoff committee rankings is out, and I for one find them refreshing.  I think that the committee has already improved on the old BCS rankings in some key ways:

1.  It's About Wins, Not Losses--how many times did we hear about how 1-Loss Team X had a reality quality loss back during the BCS years?  That sort of logic was incredibly common and incredibly misplaced--it turned the whole project of finding the best teams on its head.  By focusing on the only loss of the season, the BCS system basically found itself discounting 11/12ths of the season.  There's really no such thing as a "quality loss"; all losses are bad losses.  There are such things as quality wins, though, especially if you have more than one.  We should be deciding post season on victories, not losses. 

2.  Forget January, the Playoffs Are Going Right Now--some are shocked that 4 SEC teams in are in the top 5.  But if you look closely, you can see what the playoff committee is doing here, and not just about the SEC--teams are going to get a chance to play their ways in or out.  #3 Auburn and #4 Ole Miss play this weekend, and you know that's an elimination game.  #1 Mississippi State and #6 Alabama have a date circled on Nov. 15, with a loss eliminating the Tide.  #2 Florida State and #25 Louisville meet Thursday, where a Seminole loss would likely eliminate FSU.  #7 TCU and #9 K State meet in two weeks; if K-State survives, they'll get a chance to knock #13 Baylor out at the end of the season if #18 Oklahoma doesn't get them first.  #5 Oregon is going to play #17 Utah; a win there sets up a championship game with either #12 Arizona or #14 Arizona State.  #8 Michigan State has a date with #16 Ohio State coming up.

3.  The Other Polls Don't Matter--the selection committee clearly didn't care about the AP poll or the borderline ridiculous coaches poll.  Fortunately, this has let them shuck all the preseason baggage that these polls usually entail.

4.  Brand Names Don't Matter, Either--just ask Notre Dame, Ohio State, or even Alabama.  The committee isn't spellbound by mystique, just by results.  What do these teams have in common?  They really haven't beaten anyone of consequence.

5.  Forget All That Nonconference Crap--the argument about nonconference play has always baffled me.  I know analysts use it as a measuring stick in the absence of anything else, but at best nonconference  play is 1/3 of the season, and most teams only schedule one quality nonconference opponent anyway, so we're really discussing a 1/12 of the schedule.  Nonconference vs. conference isn't a major factor, just win quality.  If nonconference is so great, then Notre Dame and BYU would have the best schedules in the country, by definition.

6.  Notre Dame and BYU, You're on the Clock--Living outside of a conference, the Irish and the Cougars may never be able to muster the strength of schedule necessary to crack the top 4 without running the table, and that might not even be enough for BYU.  If FSU beats Louisville on Thursday night, ND will have only played two ranked teams, and will have lost to at least one (the other is an upcoming game against Arizona State).  BYU's not a factor anymore, but their schedule doesn't have a ranked team.

7.  The Big XII Championship May Be Back Before You Know It--if a 1-loss Big XII team doesn't make the playoffs, strength of schedule may be a major factor.  They can talk about "one true champion" all they want, but the truth of the matter is that everyone else will be getting in one final game against a major opponent while they're not.  The game went away because Texas and OU thought it made the going tougher; Texas isn't in position to worry, and 1-loss Big XII teams may find that they need that additional game to get in.  It won't happen this year, since it's not going to cost OU or Texas a chance, but the Sooners and Horns may see Baylor, TCU, or K-State getting turned away as a cautionary tale.  That means taking two more teams to actually have 12 in the Big XII.  Boise State, BYU, Cincinnati, and Memphis are logical choices.

Great post.

I would add that while you are correct about quality losses, the committee is looking at bad losses. Ohio St's home loss to Va. Tech is weighing them down in the eyes of the committee right now.

JayBell

I'm not as good at shaking off insults as others and the claims of "#SECbias" have just gotten so, so old.  How in the hell can people not accept how good the SEC is when its teams won seven straight national championships, nearly won an eighth straight, send more teams to bowl games and still have a higher winning percentage in bowls, have the highest rated recruiting classes every year and send more players to the NFL than every other conference?

The playoff committee is made up almost entirely of administrators with no SEC ties.  How can people seriously sit there and claim that they have some kind of SEC bias?

It's been this way since 2006.  The SEC is by far and away the best conference (and has the toughest division in the history of the world) based on every single possible objective measure.

JayBell

With the Big XII, they should just add SMU and Houston and be done with it.  And/or they should give Iowa State to the B1G and bring in BYU too.

I kept hoping that the Mountain West would establish itself as a power player, especially with the demise of the old Big East.  The Mountain West missed a major opportunity a few years ago to make a power play.  A conference with Boise State, Utah, TCU, BYU, Colorado, Colorado State, Air Force, Fresno State, San Jose State, San Diego State, UNLV, Nevada and Tulsa could own that part of the country.  They'd dominate with all of the major schools in Nevada, Colorado and Utah.  Instead they lost Utah, TCU and BYU, who were all looking for instant money-grabs, and couldn't attract better members.

The Big XII isn't attracting any other major programs from the B1G or the SEC.  They're not going to convince Nebraska, A&M or Missouri to come back and their not going to get Arkansas or LSU.  Their best hope is to sign up some of the remaining Texas schools (SMU, Houston, Rice) and/or go after BYU for a new market.

Rzbakfromwaybak


Well, all the hoopla over the playoff committee, & their evaluation this early is pretty much a waste of time.  No real reason to do any of this until about Thanksgiving or the week after, if you are really looking to pick the top 4 teams in the country.  Let the teams get down to their last game or two & see what has actually happened on the field.  Some of these teams could be playing in conference championship games in a month.  Right now, the committee is not really accomplishing much more than the polls are.  Teams can switch places, or come & go each week.
Arkansas born, Arkansas bred, when I die I'll be a Razorback dead.

Inhogswetrust

Quote from: NaturalStateReb on October 30, 2014, 12:21:32 pm
Truly, although I do hope they take A-State.  I've thought for a long time that C-USA membership should have been a mid-range goal for ASU's program.  They've been successful enough recently to make entry a possibility if a spot opens.  The bowl bids and better matchups would help greatly.

One question is how do they stack up with the total program in all sports relative to the other schools that might be considered. Another would be how big of a market and fanbase do they bring to the table. In other words what programs bring the most pizazz and media/fans to any new conference affiliation. Besides CUSA doesn't really need to expand since they have 14 members.   
If I'm going to cheer players and coaches in victory, I damn sure ought to be man enough to stand with them in defeat.

"Why some people are so drawn to the irrational is something that has always puzzled me" - James Randi

Inhogswetrust

Quote from: JayBell on October 30, 2014, 01:31:22 pm
With the Big XII, they should just add SMU and Houston and be done with it.  And/or they should give Iowa State to the B1G and bring in BYU too.

I kept hoping that the Mountain West would establish itself as a power player, especially with the demise of the old Big East.  The Mountain West missed a major opportunity a few years ago to make a power play.  A conference with Boise State, Utah, TCU, BYU, Colorado, Colorado State, Air Force, Fresno State, San Jose State, San Diego State, UNLV, Nevada and Tulsa could own that part of the country.  They'd dominate with all of the major schools in Nevada, Colorado and Utah.  Instead they lost Utah, TCU and BYU, who were all looking for instant money-grabs, and couldn't attract better members.

The Big XII isn't attracting any other major programs from the B1G or the SEC.  They're not going to convince Nebraska, A&M or Missouri to come back and their not going to get Arkansas or LSU.  Their best hope is to sign up some of the remaining Texas schools (SMU, Houston, Rice) and/or go after BYU for a new market.

The little 12 does not NEED any new teams in tejas. They have more than enough market penetration and attractiveness with tejas, TTU and TCU. They don't need SMU, Houston or Rice there. It would only make sense to add teams that bring with it new markets and sufficient sized fan bases to increase the footprint. Those three texas teams do not bring either one of those.
If I'm going to cheer players and coaches in victory, I damn sure ought to be man enough to stand with them in defeat.

"Why some people are so drawn to the irrational is something that has always puzzled me" - James Randi

PonderinHog

Quote from: Inhogswetrust on October 31, 2014, 08:03:33 am
The little 12 does not NEED any new teams in tejas. They have more than enough market penetration and attractiveness with tejas, TTU and TCU. They don't need SMU, Houston or Rice there. It would only make sense to add teams that bring with it new markets and sufficient sized fan bases to increase the footprint. Those three texas teams do not bring either one of those.
They should go after Baylor...

DeltaBoy

If the South should lose, it means that the history of the heroic struggle will be written by the enemy, that our youth will be trained by Northern school teachers, will be impressed by all of the influences of history and education to regard our gallant dead as traitors and our maimed veterans as fit subjects for derision.
-- Major General Patrick Cleburne
The Confederacy had no better soldiers
than the Arkansans--fearless, brave, and oftentimes courageous beyond
prudence. Dickart History of Kershaws Brigade.

hogsanity

One thing the committee is getting wrong is that apparently they were predisposed, just like the coaches and AP polls, to put FSu in the top4. FSU has not played like a top 4 team. They looked pedestrian against what has turned out to be a weak Okie St team. Should have lost to a poor Clemson team, and had narrow escapes against ND, who the committee does not respect at all, and then last night against UL.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

Inhogswetrust

Quote from: PonderinHog on October 31, 2014, 09:03:39 am
They should go after Baylor...

When the little 12 expanded they supposedly had to take Baylor due partly to political influence. Maybe so and maybe not. I will give them credit in that they have made a stronger commitment to athletics since then.
If I'm going to cheer players and coaches in victory, I damn sure ought to be man enough to stand with them in defeat.

"Why some people are so drawn to the irrational is something that has always puzzled me" - James Randi

Inhogswetrust

October 31, 2014, 10:35:31 am #39 Last Edit: October 31, 2014, 11:26:34 am by Inhogswetrust
Quote from: hogsanity on October 31, 2014, 09:14:02 am
One thing the committee is getting wrong is that apparently they were predisposed, just like the coaches and AP polls, to put FSu in the top4. FSU has not played like a top 4 team. They looked pedestrian against what has turned out to be a weak Okie St team. Should have lost to a poor Clemson team, and had narrow escapes against ND, who the committee does not respect at all, and then last night against UL.

Last night against UL when they quit making mistakes and used their athleticism and started to play up to the level they were recruited as then they looked the part.
If I'm going to cheer players and coaches in victory, I damn sure ought to be man enough to stand with them in defeat.

"Why some people are so drawn to the irrational is something that has always puzzled me" - James Randi

PonderinHog

Quote from: Inhogswetrust on October 31, 2014, 10:35:31 am
Last night against UL when they quit making mistakes and used their athleticism and started top play up to the level they were recruited as then they looked the part.
And there's that common denominator in their last 24 games.

___
W

NaturalStateReb

Quote from: Inhogswetrust on October 31, 2014, 07:52:22 am
One question is how do they stack up with the total program in all sports relative to the other schools that might be considered. Another would be how big of a market and fanbase do they bring to the table. In other words what programs bring the most pizazz and media/fans to any new conference affiliation. Besides CUSA doesn't really need to expand since they have 14 members.   

I figure C-USA won't make a move unless they're poached by the American after the American is poached by the Big XII.
"It's a trap!"--Houston Nutt and Admiral Ackbar, although Ackbar never called that play or ate that frito pie.

Inhogswetrust

Quote from: NaturalStateReb on October 31, 2014, 11:29:02 am
I figure C-USA won't make a move unless they're poached by the American after the American is poached by the Big XII.

That is very interesting to ponder. Especially with the American having only 11 members and no Conference championship game.
If I'm going to cheer players and coaches in victory, I damn sure ought to be man enough to stand with them in defeat.

"Why some people are so drawn to the irrational is something that has always puzzled me" - James Randi

hogsanity

Quote from: Inhogswetrust on October 31, 2014, 11:37:32 am
That is very interesting to ponder. Especially with the American having only 11 members and no Conference championship game.

IF the American gets poached, would we maybe see the rest of the American and Conf USA merge into one big league?
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

Inhogswetrust

Quote from: hogsanity on October 31, 2014, 01:27:29 pm
IF the American gets poached, would we maybe see the rest of the American and Conf USA merge into one big league?

I guess anything is possible although I don't foresee as many teams moving to different conferences in the future as has happened. At some point the schools that are not already in the well known more prestigious conferences will not have enough credentials to increase the value of the conference.
If I'm going to cheer players and coaches in victory, I damn sure ought to be man enough to stand with them in defeat.

"Why some people are so drawn to the irrational is something that has always puzzled me" - James Randi

Hogfaniam

Quote from: Inhogswetrust on November 01, 2014, 07:16:41 am
I guess anything is possible although I don't foresee as many teams moving to different conferences in the future as has happened. At some point the schools that are not already in the well known more prestigious conferences will not have enough credentials to increase the value of the conference.

Book it.

Big 12 becomes the Big 14.  Adds UCF for Florida market, adds Cincinnati for that metro area, adds Memphis for smack in the middle of SEC country and adds Houston to finish owning Tejas.
"My dog Sam eats purple flowers"