Nightmare Playoff Scenario

[Baconomics]

If Alabama wins out...
If Mississippi State wins out, except for Bama...
If Ole Miss wins out, except for the Egg Bowl...

How do you make the case that one of these teams does not belong in the playoffs?

[Hogwild]

The SEC Champion would be in, and the winner out of the remaining two would be in.

[Baconomics]

So, Ole Miss goes the entire season without a single loss and are ranked #1 in the land.  They lose to a Top 5 MSU team in the last game of the season, and they are not even in the playoffs?

If true, I guess the Egg Bowl would be the unofficial first round of the playoffs.

[searcus]

What happens if an undefeated Ole Miss or Ms. State loses to a one lose Georgia team in the SEC Championship.  Does the SEC get two teams in?

[Smokehouse]

It's technically possible all three could get in under that scenario, albeit unlikely. Probably need another loss for Oregon, Michigan St, TCU, Baylor, and Kansas State for it to occur, though.

Florida State is probably a lock at this point, although one loss and they're totally out of it given their cream puff schedule the rest of the way. Ohio State could sneak back in if they're Michigan State's other loss. Voters might slide a one-loss Notre Dame in front of one of the SEC-w schools, too, especially if there's a strong sentiment to avoid putting in three SEC teams for the first playoff.

[NaturalStateReb]

If Alabama wins out…
If Mississippi State wins out, except for Bama…
If Ole Miss wins out, except for the Egg Bowl…

How do you make the case that one of these teams does not belong in the playoffs?

Add in a Georgia team that runs the table, then beats State in the championship game.  New set of three.

Plus, you can work Auburn into this kind of scenario as well.  It's far from over.

[NaturalStateReb]

It's technically possible all three could get in under that scenario, albeit unlikely. Probably need another loss for Oregon, Michigan St, TCU, Baylor, and Kansas State for it to occur, though.

Florida State is probably a lock at this point, although one loss and they're totally out of it given their cream puff schedule the rest of the way. Ohio State could sneak back in if they're Michigan State's other loss. Voters might slide a one-loss Notre Dame in front of one of the SEC-w schools, too, especially if there's a strong sentiment to avoid putting in three SEC teams for the first playoff.

Maybe Bobby P can put a stick in their spokes.

[The_Iceman]

So, Ole Miss goes the entire season without a single loss and are ranked #1 in the land.  They lose to a Top 5 MSU team in the last game of the season, and they are not even in the playoffs?

If true, I guess the Egg Bowl would be the unofficial first round of the playoffs.

What's stupid is the only reason they aren't in is because that loss is at the end of the season. If that would have been the first game, it might not matter.

WHEN someone loses factors in much more than it should than compared to WHO someone loses to.

[Großer Kriegschwein]

That's funny stuff. On one of our down years and we could, if they don't make conference championships a requirement, get 3 teams in.

[Seebs]

After Arkansas beats both Ole Miss and Mississippi State the point will be moot.

[SPAL]

After Arkansas beats both Ole Miss and Mississippi State the point will be moot.

You must be looking for the jump ball forum.

[rogers-hog]

It would also be important where the committee has them ranked in comparison to other 1 loss teams. How far would miss state drop with a loss to bama what would happen if they were able to jump ahead of bama by trouncing a #1 ole miss while bama struggles with auburn but due to the tie breakers bama goes to the sec championship game and loses to 1 loss Georgia?

[Hogarusa]

I fail to see where the nightmare is.  Screw those teams.  Nobody wants to see a 3 team SEC team final 4.  Well i dont

[Smokehouse]

Maybe Bobby P can put a stick in their spokes.

Louisville is probably their best shot at a loss, since it's a night game on the road. Other than that, what, Boston College?

[Smokehouse]

What's stupid is the only reason they aren't in is because that loss is at the end of the season. If that would have been the first game, it might not matter.

WHEN someone loses factors in much more than it should than compared to WHO someone loses to.

Yup. Oregon and Michigan State got their losses at the opportune time.

[jmb1973]

After Arkansas beats both Ole Miss and Mississippi State the point will be moot.

Your optimism, while misplaced, is admirable. Remember, puff, puff, pass....

[clutch]

Louisville is probably their best shot at a loss, since it's a night game on the road. Other than that, what, Boston College?

Wish that game was on Saturday instead of a Thursday. I'll be going to Louisville the morning of Nov. 1st for work. I would like to see that game. Not much of a fan of either team, but like watching good college football games.

[GoHogs1091]

You can already tell that there is a move by the national media and national analysts for the Little 9/Big 1 Conference to get a team into the playoff.  Ohio State and Michigan State both lost a non-conference game in the early part of the season (which is the time of the season to lose a game). The Playoff Committee will probably like the fact that Ohio State and Michigan State played a good non-Conference opponent, unlike the SEC who with the exception of Georgia, have played garbage in the non-conference.  Whoever wins when Ohio State and Michigan State play will have an inside track to a possible playoff spot.

As of now it looks like the following could be in the playoff.

The SEC Championship Game Winner

A Little 9/Big 1 Conference team

Florida State (provided Winston remains on the team, and they don't lose between now and when the selections are made).

Notre Dame (close non-Conference loss on the road decided by a controversial call by the Officiating Crew).

No Little 12 team (probably should be called the Little 10 since there is only 10 teams).

If the SEC Championship Game Winner happens to have 2 losses, then that Winner in Atlanta may not make it into the playoff.   

[demonHOG1013]

If there is a 3 way tie for the West who goes to the SECCG?  It used to be who was ranked highest in the BCS, but there is no BCS anymore.

[bphi11ips]

The SEC will have one team in the playoff, and it will be the winner of the championship game as long as the winner has no more than one loss.  Right now I'd say that will be Georgia. 

The other three are likely to be Oregon, Florida State and the winner of Ohio State/Michigan State.

[Hogfaniam]

I hope there are 6-8 teams screaming at the end.  Bring on the 8 team playoff!

[demonHOG1013]

The SEC will have one team in the playoff, and it will be the winner of the championship game as long as the winner has no more than one loss.  Right now I'd say that will be Georgia. 

The other three are likely to be Oregon, Florida State and the winner of Ohio State/Michigan State.

A 1-loss SEC West team that doesnt go to the SECCG is better than both OSU/Mich St and the committee will see that. If there are two 1 loss SEC teams or an undefeated and one 1 loss SEC team after the SECCG, then there will be two SEC teams in the playoff.

I predict
1. Miss St
2. Florida St
3. Kansas St
4. Ole Miss

I think MSU/Ole miss stay unbeaten until egg bowl, MSU beats GA in the SECCG. Oregon will lose again

[Hogarusa]

Ohio State and Michigan State both lost a non-conference game in the early part of the season (which is the time of the season to lose a game). The Playoff Committee will probably like the fact that Ohio State and Michigan State played a good non-Conference opponent, unlike the SEC who with the exception of Georgia, have played garbage in the non-conference.  Whoever wins when Ohio State and Michigan State play will have an inside track to a possible playoff spot.

Ohio State lost at home to a 4-3 Va Tech team.  Since then, they are avg 56 ppg in wins against Kent St, Maryland, Rutgers, and Cincy.

Danny Kanell thinks that Oregon losing at home to Arizona is a better loss than Bama at Ole Miss and Rod Gilmore doesnt have Ole Miss in his top 6 because of their awful schedule.

I always enjoy hearing the wide range of opinions when it comes to college football

[Hogarusa]

If there is a 3 way tie for the West who goes to the SECCG?  It used to be who was ranked highest in the BCS, but there is no BCS anymore.

A new tiebreaker this year is the combined SEC record of their cross divisional opponents.  Its the 7th tiebreaker if neccessary for a 3 way tie.

www.saturdaydownsouth.com/2014/sec-has-a-new-tiebreaker-in-2014/

[hogsanity]

This is exactly what some of us said was the problem with having a playoff where the participants are determined by people. It is NO BETTER than what we have had for the last decade, and it may be worse. If the SECW ends up with 3 teams with one loss, or the SEC overall has three teams with 1 loss, and only one of those three makes the playoff, no one is going to believe that the league only got one for any reason other than those charged with picking the teams did not want one league to have two teams.

Had the just kept using the BCS formula with computers and human polls, and taken the top 4 teams, it is likely, in a 3sec teams with 1 loss scenario, that three of the top 4 would have been sec teams.

They can pay all the lip service they want, but when it comes time to finally put 4 teams on the board, I have had, and still do have, serious doubts that a group of people would put two teams from one league in, basically shutting out 2/3rds of the country. If any league gets two teams, then that means that at least two of the "power 5" will get no teams. Throw in ND, and that could mean 3 of the power 5 conferences get no teams in the playoff.

[IntegrityHog]

After Arkansas beats both Ole Miss and Mississippi State the point will be moot.

I'm diggn' what your shovellin!  Love the optimism!!!!!  WPS!!!!  #1=0!!!!!

[NaturalStateReb]

Ohio State lost at home to a 4-3 Va Tech team.  Since then, they are avg 56 ppg in wins against Kent St, Maryland, Rutgers, and Cincy.

Danny Kanell thinks that Oregon losing at home to Arizona is a better loss than Bama at Ole Miss and Rod Gilmore doesnt have Ole Miss in his top 6 because of their awful schedule.

I always enjoy hearing the wide range of opinions when it comes to college football

Plus, Kannell and Gilmore are rock solid SEC haters. 

[Hogfaniam]

This is exactly what some of us said was the problem with having a playoff where the participants are determined by people. It is NO BETTER than what we have had for the last decade, and it may be worse. If the SECW ends up with 3 teams with one loss, or the SEC overall has three teams with 1 loss, and only one of those three makes the playoff, no one is going to believe that the league only got one for any reason other than those charged with picking the teams did not want one league to have two teams.

Had the just kept using the BCS formula with computers and human polls, and taken the top 4 teams, it is likely, in a 3sec teams with 1 loss scenario, that three of the top 4 would have been sec teams.

They can pay all the lip service they want, but when it comes time to finally put 4 teams on the board, I have had, and still do have, serious doubts that a group of people would put two teams from one league in, basically shutting out 2/3rds of the country. If any league gets two teams, then that means that at least two of the "power 5" will get no teams. Throw in ND, and that could mean 3 of the power 5 conferences get no teams in the playoff.

The pressure from that big TV package will be to make sure there are teams that capture the major markets.  I'm not saying they would blatantly put in an undeserving team, but if a team can pull ratings and is in the mix, they will get the nod over 2 or more SEC teams.

That is why they aren't using the old BCS formula.  The LSU-Alabama National Champ game had more to do with the BCS going away and a playoff coming to fruition than most realize.  TV wanted more human gerrymandering.

[hogsanity]

The pressure from that big TV package will be to make sure there are teams that capture the major markets.  I'm not saying they would blatantly put in an undeserving team, but if a team can pull ratings and is in the mix, they will get the nod over 2 or more SEC teams.

I don't think it is ratings for any one market, just that they do not want to exclude large parts of the nation by excluding some power conferences.  There is no team to put in to capture the NYC market, for example. But if the pac12 has no team, well, that pretty much shuts down everything west of the rockies.

People will still watch, but it is going to be hard to have a playoff where either 2/5 or 3/5 of the major conferences are shut out. There was no huge push, from the leagues, for a playoff until the SEC had two teams in the title game. A year or two of having two sec teams in the 4 team playoff will push it to what most tv people wanted to begin with, and that is 8 teams. the 5 power conf champs, and three wild cards. That keeps all the leagues happy, and leaves room for things like this year where one league has several top 10 teams.

[Tripod1]

Ohio State lost at home to a 4-3 Va Tech team.  Since then, they are avg 56 ppg in wins against Kent St, Maryland, Rutgers, and Cincy.

Danny Kanell thinks that Oregon losing at home to Arizona is a better loss than Bama at Ole Miss and Rod Gilmore doesnt have Ole Miss in his top 6 because of their awful schedule.

I always enjoy hearing the wide range of opinions when it comes to college football

And Danny Kanell also said ZERO SEC teams would be in the playoffs.  You can bet your bottom dollar there will be a huge push for ND to get in as well as a Big 10 team.  W/o a doubt the SEC could place 4 teams in a playoff that are better than the rest of the country.  SEC will get 1 in but should have at least two. Also, who outside the SEC gets excited about the Mississippi schools?  Those two will have to be SEC champs for the committee to begrudgingly put them in the playoffs.

[hogsanity]

And Danny Kanell also said ZERO SEC teams would be in the playoffs.  You can bet your bottom dollar there will be a huge push for ND to get in as well as a Big 10 team.  W/o a doubt the SEC could place 4 teams in a playoff that are better than the rest of the country.  SEC will get 1 in but should have at least two.

I think he said ( or meant ) the SEC WEST could get none in. The SEC champ is getting in ( unless something freaky happens and every SEC team, including the champ, has two losses.

[Stewhog 11]

Been saying for a while that FSU @ Louisville is a HUGE upset chance. Regardless of the coaches involved, Louisville is a solid team, and a Thursday night road game, at a place like Louisville, the night before Halloween. Those type of games are always crazy.

[onebadrubi]

A 1-loss SEC West team that doesnt go to the SECCG is better than both OSU/Mich St and the committee will see that. If there are two 1 loss SEC teams or an undefeated and one 1 loss SEC team after the SECCG, then there will be two SEC teams in the playoff.

I predict
1. Miss St
2. Florida St
3. Kansas St
4. Ole Miss

I think MSU/Ole miss stay unbeaten until egg bowl, MSU beats GA in the SECCG. Oregon will lose again

I agree with this EXCEPT the two Mississippi schools wont make the playoff.  No way the committee under ANY circumstances will take that.  The way that would workout would be bama roll the rest of the year but Ole Miss beat MS st or a few other circumstances.  But with the two miss schools playing the egg bowl at the end of the year they wont both get in even if undefeated at the beginning of the eggbowl. 

[hoglady]

The SEC will have one team in the playoff, and it will be the winner of the championship game as long as the winner has no more than one loss.  Right now I'd say that will be Georgia. 

The other three are likely to be Oregon, Florida State and the winner of Ohio State/Michigan State.

I agree with you. If Georgia wins the SEC Championship game the SEC West will be shut out of the playoff. Heck I saw a projection the other day that shut out the SEC totally. The winner of the Ohio St/ Michigan St game seems to be a lock for the playoff right now. Anyone who thinks the SEC gets 3 teams in is living in a dream world. A whole lot of folks have to lose another game to even get a chance at 2.

[hoglady]

And Danny Kanell also said ZERO SEC teams would be in the playoffs.  You can bet your bottom dollar there will be a huge push for ND to get in as well as a Big 10 team.  W/o a doubt the SEC could place 4 teams in a playoff that are better than the rest of the country.  SEC will get 1 in but should have at least two. Also, who outside the SEC gets excited about the Mississippi schools?  Those two will have to be SEC champs for the committee to begrudgingly put them in the playoffs.

Kanell appears to be on a mission against the SEC.

[hogsanity]

Kanell appears to be on a mission against the SEC.

He is the one that ESPN appointed to try to make it look like ESPN is not biased toward the SEC.  ESPN is biased toward MONEY, but right now a large chunk of that is in the form of SEC football. If the SEC wins it all this year, next year he will be all about " well I was wrong the SEC is the best, blah blah blah " and one of their other talking heads will be the "anti sec" guy.

[hogsanity]

I agree with you. If Georgia wins the SEC Championship game the SEC West will be shut out of the playoff. Heck I saw a projection the other day that shut out the SEC totally. The winner of the Ohio St/ Michigan St game seems to be a lock for the playoff right now. Anyone who thinks the SEC gets 3 teams in is living in a dream world. A whole lot of folks have to lose another game to even get a chance at 2.

SEC wont get three, unless all the other teams in the top 10 end up with AT LEAST two losses, and one of those being a bad loss for each team. SEC is say is 50/50 to get two, and 99% to get one. Only way they don't get one is if all sec team end up with two or more losses somehow and the rest of the top 10 wins out.

[Hogarusa]

He is the one that ESPN appointed to try to make it look like ESPN is not biased toward the SEC.  ESPN is biased toward MONEY, but right now a large chunk of that is in the form of SEC football. If the SEC wins it all this year, next year he will be all about " well I was wrong the SEC is the best, blah blah blah " and one of their other talking heads will be the "anti sec" guy.

This is a theory i can agree with.

[Atlhogfan1]

A problem the SEC could have is a push for conference champions or at least division champions.  Other conferences will whine and campaign just as they have since Bama vs LSU. 

[hogsanity]

A problem the SEC could have is a push for conference champions or at least division champions.  Other conferences will whine and campaign just as they have since Bama vs LSU. 

Which is why some of us said a 4 team playoff was WORSE that what we had before, and that people needed to be careful what they wished for. YEs, people had trouble figuring out how the BCS rankings worked, because the rankings used so much computer data to try to filter out biases, that they often appeared crazy. But how crazy will it look this year if the SEC ends up with 4 one loss teams, and yet only gets one team in the playoff, even though everyone agrees the SECW was the toughest division EVER in college football.

When it is all said and done, if Oregon ends up with one loss, look at that loss, what will likely be a low 20's or un-ranked AZ team, AT HOME. ND? Yea they ended 11-1, but in their only real test, they lost ( bad call or not ). Ohio St? Vt manhandled them AT HOME. VT may be lucky to end up 6-6.  Mich St 11-1. Got blitzed by the same Oregon team that could not even beat AZ.

At the end, it all should go back to who played the toughest schedule week in and week out. And no one but the most blatant homer from the BIG10, BIG12-2-2+1-2-1, or PAC12 could even possibly claim that the teams from the SECW did not play the toughest schedules. And do not even get me started on the weak sister ACC.

[hoglady]

Which is why some of us said a 4 team playoff was WORSE that what we had before, and that people needed to be careful what they wished for. YEs, people had trouble figuring out how the BCS rankings worked, because the rankings used so much computer data to try to filter out biases, that they often appeared crazy. But how crazy will it look this year if the SEC ends up with 4 one loss teams, and yet only gets one team in the playoff, even though everyone agrees the SECW was the toughest division EVER in college football.

When it is all said and done, if Oregon ends up with one loss, look at that loss, what will likely be a low 20's or un-ranked AZ team, AT HOME. ND? Yea they ended 11-1, but in their only real test, they lost ( bad call or not ). Ohio St? Vt manhandled them AT HOME. VT may be lucky to end up 6-6.  Mich St 11-1. Got blitzed by the same Oregon team that could not even beat AZ.

At the end, it all should go back to who played the toughest schedule week in and week out. And no one but the most blatant homer from the BIG10, BIG12-2-2+1-2-1, or PAC12 could even possibly claim that the teams from the SECW did not play the toughest schedules. And do not even get me started on the weak sister ACC.

I don't have a problem with the 4 team playoff - I don't like using a selection committee.
They should have kept the BCS formula and just used the Top 4 teams for the playoff. That would have been the easiest and fairest way.

[Hogarusa]

I think the playoff committe should refrain from releasing a top 25 poll.  Its not needed.  I get why they are going to start releasing one (buzz, money, ratings) but i hope they go back to the drawing board on the idea after this season.  Just meet in a board room and tell us who the 4 are. 

Looking forward to the move to 8 teams in the 2020's

[NaturalStateReb]

I think the playoff committe should refrain from releasing a top 25 poll.  Its not needed.  I get why they are going to start releasing one (buzz, money, ratings) but i hope they go back to the drawing board on the idea after this season.  Just meet in a board room and tell us who the 4 are. 

Looking forward to the move to 8 teams in the 2020's

I agree.  This year's finish will hopefully hasten the arrival of a 4-team playoff.

This year, more than 4 teams may at the end have a plausible claim to being the best team in the country.  It'd be nice to have enough playoff slots to find out.

[hogsanity]

The real playoff nightmare is:

1. FSU loses, does not matter to who, it is going to be a "bad" loss
2. ND loses to someones- see above
3. No one in the pac12 finishes with only 1 loss
4. No one in the BIG10 finishes with just one loss
5. no one in the Big12-2-1+2-2 finishes with only 1 loss
6. 4 SEC schools finish with just one loss

If, lets say Ga, MSU, Bama, and old misses all end up with one loss ( it can happen ), how do you justify not having all 4 of them in the playoff.   

[Hogarusa]

The real playoff nightmare is:

1. FSU loses, does not matter to who, it is going to be a "bad" loss
2. ND loses to someones- see above
3. No one in the pac12 finishes with only 1 loss
4. No one in the BIG10 finishes with just one loss
5. no one in the Big12-2-1+2-2 finishes with only 1 loss
6. 4 SEC schools finish with just one loss

If, lets say Ga, MSU, Bama, and old misses all end up with one loss ( it can happen ), how do you justify not having all 4 of them in the playoff.   

The justification would be that nobody wants to see it and it would be bad for college football.  SEC would get 2 but i dont think that SEC scenario can happen, can it.  miss st has Bama/Ole Miss left and and Ole Miss has Miss St and then add in the SEC title game.  3 of them could have 1 loss.  I'm dumb though so i could be off

[hogsanity]

The justification would be that nobody wants to see it and it would be bad for college football.  SEC would get 2 but i dont think that SEC scenario can happen, can it.  miss st has Bama/Ole Miss left and and Ole Miss has Miss St and then add in the SEC title game.  3 of them could have 1 loss.  I'm dumb though so i could be off

After looking at it, I don't think it can. 3 can finish with 1 loss, but I don't think 4 can.

[NaturalStateReb]

After looking at it, I don't think it can. 3 can finish with 1 loss, but I don't think 4 can.

Agreed.  For UGA to end up with 1 loss, the West representative would have to lose in the title game.

[code red]

If Alabama wins out...
If Mississippi State wins out, except for Bama...
If Ole Miss wins out, except for the Egg Bowl...

How do you make the case that one of these teams does not belong in the playoffs?

Even Worse......UGA wins out and wins SEC Championship.  Ole Miss win out and lose to UGA.  Bama wins out with one loss and sits at home. MStates only loss to a hot 1 loss bama team.....do 3 SEC teams go to final 4 Championship???

[onebadrubi]

This is a theory i can agree with.

He's an FSU homer, I don't think they had to do anything but say be yourself.  He hates the SEC because it's everything FSU wants.  The teams within the SEC have dominated FSU over the last decade (except for last year) and now he has a leg to stand on. 

[code red]

Either way...I would NOT want to have my name tied to that committee.  You might as well move to Mexico....and obtain an alias.