UAB Advanced Stats Preview: Turn 'Em Loose!

[Fayettechill14]

http://www.arkansasfight.com/2014/10/21/7025033/arkansas-vs-uab-advanced-stats-preview-turn-em-loose-razorbacks

Pretty interesting facts here. Got some ideas on how the offense might change against UAB and for the rest of the season.

[onebadrubi]

Love your breakdowns, but I have a comment to discuss, not to bash like some on here. 

I gather from reading that you are asking for us to become predicatble.  You are asking us to show our cards, shotgun is pass and under center is run.  My complaint for two years now is still relevant here.  We have weaknesses, Chaney needs to scheme against them.  For instances, we need to be in film rooms educating the players on hot routes (see corner blitz then a back or TE rubs the blitzer then gets in open space, BA can just heave it over the head of hte blitzer and it will be one on one in which I trust all TE's and RB's to win these battles 1 on 1.  We also need to add a few more draws from the shotgun to disguise the shotgun play some. 

Do you disagree?  I watched the entire game in the stadium and was making it a point to watch the routes, yes Allen missed some open guys, but in many situations the routes were requiring a 7 step drop and time.  We were not going to get the time, another angry thing is we would send 2-3 receivers outside the numbers on the same boundary side, all three would be 15 yards deep.  WTH are three recievers doing outside the numbers on the same sideline running deep?  One if not more need to be occupying the open space underneat the deep route?  Pressure was coming, we knew that after the first drive, Chaney needs to pick up that phone and talk to BA to get these hot routes recognized and called in during games. 

[moses_007]

This is an excellent analysis of how much better Brandon Allen is from the shotgun, as compared to passing from under center.  Maybe he should take all snaps from the shotgun, even running plays.  Obviously he can see the field much better from the shotgun, and hits his receivers with far more accuracy.

I agree with this writer that Cheney should just "turn 'um loose" and let the Hogs flat out sling the ball all around the field.  The running game has been stuffed the last two games, so why not just pass it the majority of the time, which should open up running opportunities as well?  The Hogs proved in the second half against Georgia that (1) Brandon Allen is a good passer when he has time to throw it; and (2) we have all kinds of receivers who can catch the ball.

http://www.arkansasfight.com/2014/10/21/7025033/arkansas-vs-uab-advanced-stats-preview-turn-em-loose-razorbacks

[The_Bionic_Pig]

Shotgun was used to combat Georgia's pass rush by giving Him that extra second to survey the field.  Georgia has the #1 Rush D in the SEC so passing became the only option..

[moses_007]

I realize that passing was our only option being down 38-6 at halftime, but why not pretend we are always behind like this and play Spurrier Florida ball, passing first and running second.  We've got to change our offense entirely if we are to win any SEC games this year.  Running off tackle on every down won't work in this league.

[moses_007]

Bielema ball, at least in SEC play, has been to run the ball twice and get three or four yards, then BA passes on third down and the pass either is incomplete or he heaves it out of bounds.  That's why we haven't won an SEC game yet.

[Baller]

I realize that passing was our only option being down 38-6 at halftime, but why not pretend we are always behind like this and play Spurrier Florida ball, passing first and running second.  We've got to change our offense entirely if we are to win any SEC games this year.  Running off tackle on every down won't work in this league.

CBB is old school.  Don't worry about fooling them so much except the occasional fake punt or trick play.  Just smash it. 

[moses_007]

Well, 1964 ball simply won't work in 2014, even with the biggest and best offensive line in football.  And, after seeing how our line performed the past few weeks, they're a long ways away from being the best in football.

[GlassofSwine]

Bielema ball, at least in SEC play, has been to run the ball twice and get three or four yards, then BA passes on third down and the pass either is incomplete or he heaves it out of bounds.  That's why we haven't won an SEC game yet.

  I like the offense but I agree they are often predictable. Plays generally seem to go something like:

Short run gain(2-3 yards) on 1st down - Run on 2nd
Larger run gain(7-8 yards) on 1st down -  Run on 2nd
Incomplete Pass on 1st down - Pass on 2nd down.
3rd down - anything more than 3rd and 4 feels like we normally try to pass.

  I could be wrong, I don't have the stats and nor am I going to look them up but it seems we have followed these tendencies quite a bit this year. We are really effective when we are running for 7-8 on first. We seem to struggle a lot when we have an incomplete passes on 1st down. 

[12247]

Coach would love to run the ball, eat up the clock and win.  When we play teams that are lessor than we are, it works.  Its a tough journey when the opponent is as good or better than we are.  BB is not going to gunsling the ball. 

[HogFanatic]

Lots of folks were saying this after Allen's first game as a Razorback, or thereabouts.
The guy came from a shotgun style spread offense.

The game obviously comes more naturally to him from the shotgun.
Prolly' why Petrino recruited him...

[jcharkansas]

From under center is usually pa so he has to kinda spin around and find his targets, I wonder if that has any effect on his percentage difference

[HogFanatic]

From under center is usually pa so he has to kinda spin around and find his targets, I wonder if that has any effect on his percentage difference

Umm. I think your question was answered in the OP

[moses_007]

Lots of folks were saying this after Allen's first game as a Razorback, or thereabouts.
The guy came from a shotgun style spread offense.

The game obviously comes more naturally to him from the shotgun.
Prolly' why Petrino recruited him...

Therefore, he's really not a good fit for Bielema ball.  Rafe would be a better fit.

[BassinHawg]

So if you used Common Core Math he was 111 Percent Total?

[PorkSoda]

Shotgun was used to combat Georgia's pass rush by giving Him that extra second to survey the field.  Georgia has the #1 Rush D in the SEC so passing became the only option..

bull crap.  we rushed for 6 yards a carry vs Georgia.  if we had committed to it, we could have run all over them.

[PorkSoda]

From under center is usually pa so he has to kinda spin around and find his targets, I wonder if that has any effect on his percentage difference

he had more PA's that running plays.  maybe they weren't fooled by that crap.  you have to establish the run before teams will actually fear it enough to open up the passing game.

[ErieHog]

Getting hit 11 times in the first half plays into it.   

At least with a shotgun look, he could identify and slide away from the blown up blocking assignments that plagued us all day.

[SPAL]

We should run the HUNH spread

[HF#1]

bull crap.  we rushed for 6 yards a carry vs Georgia.  if we had committed to it, we could have run all over them.

That is completely false.  We ran for 3.4 per carry...

[Rzbakfromwaybak]

bull crap. we rushed for 6 yards a carry vs Georgia.  if we had committed to it, we could have run all over them.

Not correct.  We rushed for 3.4 yds. per carry......per box score.  We only had 126 total yards rushing for the game on 37 attempts.

[onebadrubi]

Lots of folks were saying this after Allen's first game as a Razorback, or thereabouts.
The guy came from a shotgun style spread offense.

The game obviously comes more naturally to him from the shotgun.
Prolly' why Petrino recruited him...

This goes back to a serious question I wonder about.  I wonder how well BA surveys the field after the ball is snapped with the split seconds allowed after the snap in the 3-7 step drops.  I'm curious if our line is so tall and big it's difficult for him when turning around vs a shotgun and his eyes staying on the field of play

[ErieHog]

This goes back to a serious question I wonder about.  I wonder how well BA surveys the field after the ball is snapped with the split seconds allowed after the snap in the 3-7 step drops.  I'm curious if our line is so tall and big it's difficult for him when turning around vs a shotgun and his eyes staying on the field of play

If it plays any role at all, it is much smaller than our inability to consistently block a 5 step drop.

[moses_007]

Not correct.  We rushed for 3.4 yds. per carry......per box score.  We only had 126 total yards rushing for the game on 37 attempts.

Then, our running game wasn't much better than it was against Alabama.

For some unknown reason, Collins game has gone south, and we know Marshall is suspended.  Poor ole Jonathan Williams has to carry the entire load.

[onebadrubi]

If it plays any role at all, it is much smaller than our inability to consistently block a 5 step drop.

Won't get any argument from me on that!!  We can't do it

[MountieDawg]

Out of the shotgun they run the play were the WR is in motion and he tosses the ball 2 feet to the WR. It's basically a handoff but it's credited as a completion.

[TNRazorbacker]

I think on obvious passing situations this is clearly the best option. The play action from under center has worked well when our run game is effective though.

I also think Saturday showed that we must get the TE's more involved. I think we have the best receiving tandem in the SEC there and they are a matchup nightmare. There are a lot of ways this can be exploited.

Not to beat the Petrino horse again (not my intent) but this is where he was so good. If there was a matchup to be exploited via scheme or passing route he would destroy you with it. He also knew how to make the most of formations. Sometimes being in an advantageous formation to execute a play makes up for the giveaway (shotgun vs under center). I posted another article earlier this week that made this point.

[Youngsta71701]

If we ran the ball every once in a while out of the shotgun to keep defenses honest that would make the argument even better.

[DeltaBoy]

Good analysis and we need to keep Brandon in the Shotgun anytime we pass.

[Hoggish1]

http://www.arkansasfight.com/2014/10/21/7025033/arkansas-vs-uab-advanced-stats-preview-turn-em-loose-razorbacks

Pretty interesting facts here. Got some ideas on how the offense might change against UAB and for the rest of the season.

Great work, again!  Play last weeks 2nd half during this weeks first half, without the freebies.

[Hoggish1]

This goes back to a serious question I wonder about.  I wonder how well BA surveys the field after the ball is snapped with the split seconds allowed after the snap in the 3-7 step drops.  I'm curious if our line is so tall and big it's difficult for him when turning around vs a shotgun and his eyes staying on the field of play

Good points.  My question is why BA is listed at 6' 3" on the roster, when he is 6' 0" at best.

It would indeed be a tall order (NPI) for him to see over that O-line on a 7-step drop from under center unless the line was cut blocking.

[TMc]

I think Brandon works better from the shotgun- always have thought that.  I don't think we have to abandon a down hill running game (and don't want to) - but we can go at it a little differently.  I'm just not sure if BB is flexible on that.

[trashcan maN]

Take out BAs -28 yds due to sacks, and we ran for 4.8 YPC against UGA.

[Fayettechill14]

Love your breakdowns, but I have a comment to discuss, not to bash like some on here. 

I gather from reading that you are asking for us to become predicatble.  You are asking us to show our cards, shotgun is pass and under center is run.  My complaint for two years now is still relevant here.  We have weaknesses, Chaney needs to scheme against them.  For instances, we need to be in film rooms educating the players on hot routes (see corner blitz then a back or TE rubs the blitzer then gets in open space, BA can just heave it over the head of hte blitzer and it will be one on one in which I trust all TE's and RB's to win these battles 1 on 1.  We also need to add a few more draws from the shotgun to disguise the shotgun play some. 

Do you disagree?  I watched the entire game in the stadium and was making it a point to watch the routes, yes Allen missed some open guys, but in many situations the routes were requiring a 7 step drop and time.  We were not going to get the time, another angry thing is we would send 2-3 receivers outside the numbers on the same boundary side, all three would be 15 yards deep.  WTH are three recievers doing outside the numbers on the same sideline running deep?  One if not more need to be occupying the open space underneat the deep route?  Pressure was coming, we knew that after the first drive, Chaney needs to pick up that phone and talk to BA to get these hot routes recognized and called in during games.

I completely agree. However, I think being "predictable" based on formation is overrated, since it's incurring no advantage: any potential advantage gained from "surprising" the defense by play-action is lost for all the inadequacies in the under-center passing game, as I laid out in the article. So that doesn't bother me at all. Petrino's teams ran the ball on about 75% of plays from under center and threw about 90% of the time in shotgun. Petrino didn't care out being "predictable" in that sense because he's smart enough to not outfox himself.

We do have a shotgun dive play that we ran 3 times against Georgia for 15 yards, including Collins' TD run in the fourth quarter. Work that in two or three times a game and you can keep the defense honest.

Allen's vision is better from shotgun. He doesn't check down to TEs and RBs when dropping back, so he ends up focusing on his primary target for a 7-step drop. Not good. Of course, Tyler Wilson wasn't a very good passer from under center either, but that offense didn't require him to do that more than just a few times a game. My argument is that Chaney needs to work with the personnel, because the way high school football and 7-on-7 is going, finding a QB that can pass from under center is going to be tough. Not convinced Storey can do it. When a guy like Andrew Luck comes around, he's drafted first overall. It's rare.

[Fayettechill14]

I realize that passing was our only option being down 38-6 at halftime, but why not pretend we are always behind like this and play Spurrier Florida ball, passing first and running second.  We've got to change our offense entirely if we are to win any SEC games this year.  Running off tackle on every down won't work in this league.

That isn't the problem. We're running just fine. We had a 50 percent success rate rushing in the first half, and 46 percent for the game. That's decent considering Georgia's defense.

The problem is our under-center passing on early downs is ineffective and gets us behind the chains. I'm arguing to throw from shotgun on early downs to maximize efficiency. You're correct that we can't run it 60 times a game, but throwing from play-action 15 times a game isn't fixing anything...it's making it worse.

[onebadrubi]

I completely agree. However, I think being "predictable" based on formation is overrated, since it's incurring no advantage: any potential advantage gained from "surprising" the defense by play-action is lost for all the inadequacies in the under-center passing game, as I laid out in the article. So that doesn't bother me at all. Petrino's teams ran the ball on about 75% of plays from under center and threw about 90% of the time in shotgun. Petrino didn't care out being "predictable" in that sense because he's smart enough to not outfox himself.

We do have a shotgun dive play that we ran 3 times against Georgia for 15 yards, including Collins' TD run in the fourth quarter. Work that in two or three times a game and you can keep the defense honest.

Allen's vision is better from shotgun. He doesn't check down to TEs and RBs when dropping back, so he ends up focusing on his primary target for a 7-step drop. Not good. Of course, Tyler Wilson wasn't a very good passer from under center either, but that offense didn't require him to do that more than just a few times a game. My argument is that Chaney needs to work with the personnel, because the way high school football and 7-on-7 is going, finding a QB that can pass from under center is going to be tough. Not convinced Storey can do it. When a guy like Andrew Luck comes around, he's drafted first overall. It's rare.

I don't think people realize how ware the Andrew Luck and Ryan Mallett talents are.  Disclosure:  I'm not saying Mallett is of Luck talent, but they both could play football under center and read defenses.  A mallett in a Bielema style offense would be extremely scare, we've seen what Luck does (standford). 

[Fayettechill14]

I don't think people realize how ware the Andrew Luck and Ryan Mallett talents are.  Disclosure:  I'm not saying Mallett is of Luck talent, but they both could play football under center and read defenses.  A mallett in a Bielema style offense would be extremely scare, we've seen what Luck does (standford).

Completely agree. It's no knock on Tyler Wilson, but there's a reason Mallett has fared a little better in the NFL. Wilson would struggle with this offense as well, and he's a good QB. It's hard to do.

[onebadrubi]

Completely agree. It's no knock on Tyler Wilson, but there's a reason Mallett has fared a little better in the NFL. Wilson would struggle with this offense as well, and he's a good QB. It's hard to do.

Mallett was thrown under the buss by some media and agents trying to propel other QB"s in that draft class.  I personally think he has been completely treated unfair, but we will see him play this year cause Blitzpatrick is awful. 

I will always remember Wilson from the dirty Fairley tackle on Mallett and Wilson coming in and playing lights out!

[wildturkey8]

If Bret would let Chaney have more control over the offense, he could forge his own identity.  He is running Barry Alvarez's system.  His old coach, Hayden Fry, was certainly known for running a more wide open offense.  There is no reason why we couldn't do this while retaining our power running game.

[redeye]

This is an excellent analysis of how much better Brandon Allen is from the shotgun, as compared to passing from under center.  Maybe he should take all snaps from the shotgun, even running plays.  Obviously he can see the field much better from the shotgun, and hits his receivers with far more accuracy.

I agree with this writer that Cheney should just "turn 'um loose" and let the Hogs flat out sling the ball all around the field.  The running game has been stuffed the last two games, so why not just pass it the majority of the time, which should open up running opportunities as well?  The Hogs proved in the second half against Georgia that (1) Brandon Allen is a good passer when he has time to throw it; and (2) we have all kinds of receivers who can catch the ball.

http://www.arkansasfight.com/2014/10/21/7025033/arkansas-vs-uab-advanced-stats-preview-turn-em-loose-razorbacks

I don't agree that the running game was stuffed and Allen's problem isn't that he's being pressured too much, but that he's not handling that pressure.  It's mental.

[Hog Fan...DOH!]

I don't agree that the running game was stuffed and Allen's problem isn't that he's being pressured too much, but that he's not handling that pressure.  It's mental.

The Oline did a terrible job in pass protect during the first half against GA.  Pittman said as much this week.  Allen didn't play that well, either.  But no QB plays well when he has zero protection.  Oh, and we still don't have a consistent deep threat at wide receiver.

[Huckleberry Pig]

Great analysis.  Best iv read on our hogs, very insightful

[redeye]

The Oline did a terrible job in pass protect during the first half against GA.  Pittman said as much this week.  Allen didn't play that well, either.  But no QB plays well when he has zero protection.  Oh, and we still don't have a consistent deep threat at wide receiver.

I wasn't arguing that our OL was good at pass protection.  I'm just saying that Allen doesn't throw well under pressure.  He's good when he has plenty of time, but unlike Mallett and Wilson, who were always under pressure, Allen struggles.

[Ironhawg]

A virtual +1 to everybody in this thread.  There has been lots of information and ideas shared with no name calling or venom spewing.  Excellent work Fayettechill!  Thanks!

[redeye]

A virtual +1 to everybody in this thread.  There has been lots of information and ideas shared with no name calling or venom spewing.  Excellent work Fayettechill!  Thanks!

Agreed.  Both the article and the discussion were very enlightening.  I like what Fayettechill is proposing. 

However, didn't Bielema mention he was planning on getting physical or turning to the run game against UAB?

UAB is going to throw deep regularly, so I hope our secondary is ready.  If we struggle with their deep passing game, we may have no choice but to run on every down.

[onebadrubi]

Agreed.  Both the article and the discussion were very enlightening.  I like what Fayettechill is proposing. 

However, didn't Bielema mention he was planning on getting physical or turning to the run game against UAB?

UAB is going to throw deep regularly, so I hope our secondary is ready.  If we struggle with their deep passing game, we may have no choice but to run on every down.

Our game plan against airaid teams will be too keep the ball away from them and pound it down their defense to gas them.  We should see a rotation of Oline and some huge gaps by the second qtr.  we don't want to score quick, we want 6 minute drives that end in 7.  We will then try to stop them at least every other possession and more as the game goes on. 

[ShadowTheHedgehog]

Then, our running game wasn't much better than it was against Alabama.

For some unknown reason, Collins game has gone south, and we know Marshall is suspended.  Poor ole Jonathan Williams has to carry the entire load.

Kody Walker did good IMO, good ball security, give him a few more carries see what he can do.

[onebadrubi]

Kody Walker did good IMO, good ball security, give him a few more carries see what he can do.

He stepped in and earned them!  I agree.