Any actuaries out there ? What are the odds ?

[showme]

 What are the odds that one single high school in a town of 80,000 people can produce not one, but TWO SEC qb's ? The odds have to be astronomical. There are high schools in Houston (population 3 million) and Dallas (about the same) that have not produced TWO SEC qb's in their entire existence, much less in a 3 year span of time. So what are the odds of getting 2 SEC qb's from a town of 80,000 ?

[(notOM)Rebel123]

There are 6 NFL Hall of Famer QB's from Western Pennsylvania. Blanda,Unitas, Namath, Montana, Kelly, & Marino.

Lufkin, TX has produced approx. 20 NFL players.

Natchez, MS has produced 21 NFL & NBA players, combined.

Washington Redskin QB Mark Rypien, Cubs great Ryne Sandberg, & NBA  great John Stockton grew up about 5 miles apart in Spokane, WA.


In 2010, the WSJ ran article stating that 49% of all professional football players came from towns with populations of less than 50,000.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748703556604575502033444964138?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052748703556604575502033444964138.html

[pigbacon]

What are the odds that one single high school in a town of 80,000 people can produce not one, but TWO SEC qb's ? The odds have to be astronomical. There are high schools in Houston (population 3 million) and Dallas (about the same) that have not produced TWO SEC qb's in their entire existence, much less in a 3 year span of time. So what are the odds of getting 2 SEC qb's from a town of 80,000 ?

Not impossible. What are the odds that these HS programs recruit or families move to that district strictly for sports? I'd say 100%.

[(notOM)Rebel123]

Not impossible. What are the odds that these HS programs recruit or families move to that district strictly for sports? I'd say 100%.

Or move to that district because the dad works a few blocks from the high school?

[pigbacon]

Didn't notice the link- just read and that is interesting.

[vandybuff]

What are the odds that one single high school in a town of 80,000 people can produce not one, but TWO SEC qb's ? The odds have to be astronomical. There are high schools in Houston (population 3 million) and Dallas (about the same) that have not produced TWO SEC qb's in their entire existence, much less in a 3 year span of time. So what are the odds of getting 2 SEC qb's from a town of 80,000 ?

this is kinda what I do, but the only way to calculate a probability one would need to know:  size of school, over what time period, # of SEC qbs during this time period, # of total college football qbs during this time (and then assigning a preference of SEC versus other conferences, etc. while realizing that players will attend schools  - and coaches will recruit these players - not just based upon their relative strength versus other qbs, etc.)

long story short --- any number may be inaccurate, but you are correct when compared to all high school qbs, the likelihood of two going to one of the five power conferences from a town of 80,000 is very slim.

[vandybuff]

There are 6 NFL Hall of Famer QB's from Western Pennsylvania. Blanda,Unitas, Namath, Montana, Kelly, & Marino.

Lufkin, TX has produced approx. 20 NFL players.

Natchez, MS has produced 21 NFL & NBA players, combined.

Washington Redskin QB Mark Rypien, Cubs great Ryne Sandberg, & NBA  great John Stockton grew up about 5 miles apart in Spokane, WA.


In 2010, the WSJ ran article stating that 49% of all professional football players came from towns with populations of less than 50,000.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748703556604575502033444964138?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052748703556604575502033444964138.html

... As of 2012, 63% of the U. S. population lives in towns of 50,000 or less.

[Hogwild]

Eli Manning just completed a pass to Odell Beckman Jr, they went to the same high school.

And a 3rd player from that high school, will break Favre's TD record.

[showme]

Eli Manning just completed a pass to Odell Beckman Jr, they went to the same high school.

And a 3rd player from that high school, will break Favre's TD record.

Were they both SEC QB's ?

Oh and they went to school in New Orleans, which is about 10 times larger than Fayetteville so yeah, not really applicable to this conversation.

[showme]

this is kinda what I do, but the only way to calculate a probability one would need to know:  size of school, over what time period, # of SEC qbs during this time period, # of total college football qbs during this time (and then assigning a preference of SEC versus other conferences, etc. while realizing that players will attend schools  - and coaches will recruit these players - not just based upon their relative strength versus other qbs, etc.)

long story short --- any number may be inaccurate, but you are correct when compared to all high school qbs, the likelihood of two going to one of the five power conferences from a town of 80,000 is very slim.

And I'm not just talking about GOING to the school, I'm talking about being a good SEC quality QB at the school they go to. That makes the odds even more astronomical.

[vandybuff]

And I'm not just talking about GOING to the school, I'm talking about being a good SEC quality QB at the school they go to. That makes the odds even more astronomical.

I am sure they are both good, but the point is there is a lot of "subjectivity" to your question.  Remember the public service advertisement by Tommy Hilfiger for Autism (....what are the odds that a child from Buffalo would go to NYC and become a fashion designer.... etc. etc.).  That is simple math, because there is no "range of value or environment conditions" to any of the advertisement's questions - they are all 'yes - no' ... and essentially open to all --- this is a very objective calculation and much simpler for all the data is easily accessible.

But I will agree it is statistically very improbable.

[ErieHog]

And I'm not just talking about GOING to the school, I'm talking about being a good SEC quality QB at the school they go to. That makes the odds even more astronomical.

The odds aren't that astronomical;  they're uncommon.  However, there are caveats that diminish the improbability-- take, for example, the Manning brothers; they have a genetic pedigree and access to expert, specialized training that makes them all succeeding at one position far more than typically likely, regardless of whether they grew up in a town of 500, or a town of 5,000,000 -- tend to mean it is hard to draw any statistically significant conclusions about the likelihood of any single data point like city population.

[showme]

The odds aren't that astronomical;  they're uncommon.  However, there are caveats that diminish the improbability-- take, for example, the Manning brothers; they have a genetic pedigree and access to expert, specialized training that makes them all succeeding at one position far more than typically likely, regardless of whether they grew up in a town of 500, or a town of 5,000,000 -- tend to mean it is hard to draw any statistically significant conclusions about the likelihood of any single data point like city population.

define uncommon versus astronomical

[ErieHog]

define uncommon versus astronomical

Outside of the known scope of experience for Astronomical versus rare, but not unheard of, for uncommon:

Statistically, for example, there are about 100 million families in the United States, give or take a little.    If incidences of producing college and NFL talent were equitably distributed,  it would be a case of about 1 in every 10,000 families producing a NFL player, and something closer to 1 in every 500 producing a major college player.      Now, as we all have seen,  you get the Mannings, the Bequettes, the Colquits -- these aren't alien experiences- -that  raw probability based on an equitable distribution  tells us should not happen--  just the Colquits alone have a probability somewhere in the 1 in 62.5 trillion likelihood, based on chance.

Edit: Whoops.  The odds are actually much less likely,  as all 4 made it to the pros!  The real likelihood of a Colquitt incidence?  1 in 100,000,000,000,000,000,000!   It gets even more absurdly unlikely that they all play the same position,  but that's just beating a dead horse.

[Iwastherein1969]

this is the same thing when we had the Dick brothers both on the roster...Petrino couldn't wait to get rid of the both of them....but for some reason, we celebrate siblings with uncanny abilities of medocrity (being nice in this assessment)...why #7 isn't out there showing his athletic ability or #9 isn't out there showing his all-around game, only God, Jen, Jim, Bret and yellow dog know...I'm serious about Damon Mitchell, the kid has great athletic ability and who knows what he will do if given the keys to the offense....put it this way, "an L by any other name would smell as sickening"....in other words, nothing to lose but more games now, boys

[vandybuff]

Outside of the known scope of experience for Astronomical versus rare, but not unheard of, for uncommon:

Statistically, for example, there are about 100 million families in the United States, give or take a little.    If incidences of producing college and NFL talent were equitably distributed,  it would be a case of about 1 in every 10,000 families producing a NFL player, and something closer to 1 in every 500 producing a major college player.      Now, as we all have seen,  you get the Mannings, the Bequettes, the Colquits -- these aren't alien experiences- -that  raw probability based on an equitable distribution  tells us should not happen--  just the Colquits alone have a probability somewhere in the 1 in 62.5 trillion likelihood, based on chance.

Edit: Whoops.  The odds are actually much less likely,  as all 4 made it to the pros!  The real likelihood of a Colquitt incidence?  1 in 100,000,000,000,000,000,000!   It gets even more absurdly unlikely that they all play the same position,  but that's just beating a dead horse.

May I sit by you at the next exam?

[Hogwild]

Were they both SEC QB's ?

Yes, Peyton & Eli were both SEC QBs, one played for Tennessee the other for Ole Miss.

[onebadrubi]

Outside of the known scope of experience for Astronomical versus rare, but not unheard of, for uncommon:

Statistically, for example, there are about 100 million families in the United States, give or take a little.    If incidences of producing college and NFL talent were equitably distributed,  it would be a case of about 1 in every 10,000 families producing a NFL player, and something closer to 1 in every 500 producing a major college player.      Now, as we all have seen,  you get the Mannings, the Bequettes, the Colquits -- these aren't alien experiences- -that  raw probability based on an equitable distribution  tells us should not happen--  just the Colquits alone have a probability somewhere in the 1 in 62.5 trillion likelihood, based on chance.

Edit: Whoops.  The odds are actually much less likely,  as all 4 made it to the pros!  The real likelihood of a Colquitt incidence?  1 in 100,000,000,000,000,000,000!   It gets even more absurdly unlikely that they all play the same position,  but that's just beating a dead horse.

You didn't factor in the amount of NFL players that DONT come from a family though.  How bout adding in those odds?  Lol

[texas tush hog]

How about the Mathews family.

[showme]

Yes, Peyton & Eli were both SEC QBs, one played for Tennessee the other for Ole Miss.

Gotcha, thought you were talking about Eli and Beckham Jr.