Bielema and Black Jack

[JIHawg]

On the live show with the fans at the Catfish Hole tonight, Bielema talked about playing odds in making decisions in a game.

He said he is a good Black Jack player, because he is a card counter.  He keeps up with the cards that have been played, and he plays the odds.  He mentioned this same strategy in making decisions during a game.  Anybody who has tried to do this understands the mental multitasking going on, and how very difficult it is to do. 

Jimmy Johnson was known as a master bridge player.  I think some of the same things are at play here.  Two coaches liking card games that involve playing odds, strategy, mental gymnastics.

I had a suspicion there was more to this guy than just being a former jock lineman turned coach.  I think he is very intelligent and analytical.  The more glimpses I get into this man, the more I like him.

He also mentioned meeting his wife at a Black Jack table. 

[Wildhog]

The gif possibilities are very exciting.  Rain Man.  21.  Vegas Vacation.

[texhog]

I think he should have taken a hit last week by going for 2 on the 2nd TD.

[ricepig]

I think he should have taken a hit last week by going for 2 on the 2nd TD.

Why, we were ahead.

[OneTuskOverTheLine™]

Why, we were ahead.

yup... Kicking always has the best odd's, but after watching Bama block two PAT's in two weeks maybe a 2 point conversion would have been logical...

[HiggiePiggy]

I think he should have taken a hit last week by going for 2 on the 2nd TD.

Going for 2 doesn't mean we win the game.  It means we would be tied and still possibly lost anyway.   Fumbling a ball out of the endzone and a botched snap on a field goal attempt are more toward the helping us lose the game more than an extra point missed. 

Majority of coaches high school, college, and pro would have kicked the extra point.  There was still tons of time left in the game. You go for 2 if there is very little time left in the game and you want to make sure a td doesn't beat you. Td didn't beat us.  Poor execution in the first half and poor play calling in the second half is what caused this loss.

[MissippHog]

yup... Kicking always has the best odd's, but after watching Bama block two PAT's in two weeks maybe a 2 point conversion would have been logical...

Maybe the most logical would have been for us to simply block our men.

[PORKULATOR]

I love Coach Bielema and all that he's doing. Trust

[trashcan maN]

On top of being intelligent, hes one of the hardest working coaches in the country. There are some benefits to growing up on a farm.

[Piggfoot]

I heard part of that segment but didn't hear him say he was a card counter. I thought he meant he knew the odds on when to split double or take a hit and that is knowing the odds based on the dealers up card and your total. But he may count as well. But it's almost impossible in a six deck shoe.

[DLUXHOG]

Let me see....

SEC HC football.....✔️
Beautiful wife.....✔️
Great BkackJack player.....✔️

Sounds like a genius to me....

[lumphog]

On the live show with the fans at the Catfish Hole tonight, Bielema talked about playing odds in making decisions in a game.

He said he is a good Black Jack player, because he is a card counter.  He keeps up with the cards that have been played, and he plays the odds.  He mentioned this same strategy in making decisions during a game.  Anybody who has tried to do this understands the mental multitasking going on, and how very difficult it is to do. 

Jimmy Johnson was known as a master bridge player.  I think some of the same things are at play here.  Two coaches liking card games that involve playing odds, strategy, mental gymnastics.

I had a suspicion there was more to this guy than just being a former jock lineman turned coach.  I think he is very intelligent and analytical.  The more glimpses I get into this man, the more I like him.

He also mentioned meeting his wife at a Black Jack table. 

NO HE'S NOT!!!!!!  just ask some of these geniuses that post on here
(sarcasm)

[ricepig]

I heard part of that segment but didn't hear him say he was a card counter. I thought he meant he knew the odds on when to split double or take a hit and that is knowing the odds based on the dealers up card and your total. But he may count as well. But it's almost impossible in a six deck shoe.

He probably best at the higher dollar tables, they are single deck.

[Hog N Bama]

CBB is one smart cookie. We are fortunate to have him. :razorback: :razorback: :razorback:

[MountieDawg]

He split 10s last week on that timeout last week deep in our territory on a fake punt 4th down. I had to get up and move to another table.

[MountieDawg]

Let me see....

SEC HC football.....✔️
Beautiful wife.....✔️
Great BkackJack player.....✔️

Sounds like a genius to me....

He is a great recruiter and can sell.. He got his hot wife to marry an Ogar!

[jkstock04]

This thread made me laugh....a lot.

[MountieDawg]

I think he should have taken a hit last week by going for 2 on the 2nd TD.

Just like hitting a soft 17, there was no risk taking a hit and going for 2. Bama was showing a face card with how their defense was stopping the run.

[1highhog]

Why, we were ahead.

Because going for the extra point served no purpose, going for two was the logical decision to make.

[shotgun7]

pointless....Unless we didn't convert and bama would have made 2 field goals, as unlikely as it would have been. But yea, I would say we should have went for 2 there. But, it seems they were fully expecting to score again, just couldn't make it happen.

[razorbacker3]

Because going for the extra point served no purpose, going for two was the logical decision to make.

Hindsight is always 20/20

[Seebs]

This explains his answer during the half time interview ... "Yeah, there's queens, lots of queens ... '

"Gotta go now. Time for Wampner."

[Deep Shoat]

Because going for the extra point served no purpose, going for two was the logical decision to make.

It actually DID serve a purpose.  It put us up by 6, which means Bama had to hit their XP to win and couldn't win with 2 FG's.

Coaches have a predetermined list with far better math behind it than any of you are capable of telling them when to go for 1 and when to go for 2. 

13-7 in the early third quarter isn't "go for two" time...

[JaketheSnake]

Because going for the extra point served no purpose, going for two was the logical decision to make.

That was NOT the logical decision.  Like another poster said, if we didn't get the two and Bama hit two field goals some of you would be up in arms about why didn't we kick the XP?  We put ourselves in position for more points than that.  If it's later in the 4th quarter, that is the time to go for two

[DoctorSusscrofa]

Doesn't the house usually win at Black Jack?

[Hog N Bama]

Doesn't the house usually win at Black Jack?

Yeah but the only exception is when Coach B plays 

[MountieDawg]

Yeah but the only exception is when Coach B plays 

He has not won at the table at the SEC Casino...

[PonderinHog]

He has not won at the table at the SEC Casino...

Well, that's kind of a stacked deck.

[Porkbutt Gary]

To clarify his comments last night, he did not say that he "counted the cards", he said that he "played the numbers".  Big difference! 

[showme]

He probably best at the higher dollar tables, they are single deck.

Not true at all. Where on earth did you get this idea ?

[jkstock04]

I'm having a hard time believing Bielema is boasting to the public about being a card counter....real hard time believing this.

[ricepig]

Because going for the extra point served no purpose, going for two was the logical decision to make.

I don't think you understand what "logic" is.

[ricepig]

Not true at all. Where on earth did you get this idea ?

The casinos I play in, my friend. I can find a single deck table at every casino.

[Randy Wright]

The discussion about going for two reminds of a Wisconsin-Minnesota game a few years ago.  All coaches have a card indicating which scores they should go for two after a touchdown.  BB and Minnesota Coach Brewster were having a war of words leading up to a Wisconsin-Minnesota game.  In the game, Wisconsin was winning big and scored a late touchdown to go up 41-16.  BB went for two.  Brewster was infuriated and BB was questioned after the game why he would go for two in that situation.  BB simply chuckled and responded "that's what it said on the card."

[murthage]

ricepig....
probably true, but do they pay 3/2 or 6/5 on a Blackjack?  I only play double deck, when available, to assure 3/2.  Too many players at a single deck, even paying 3/2, results in too few cards dealt and limits advantage significantly.  Now back to football.... CBB is a lot more intelligent than many give him credit for, and he is one driven coach, who loves his team.  What you see is what you get, and I like what I see. 

[showme]

The casinos I play in, my friend. I can find a single deck table at every casino.

All high stakes tables are not single deck

[Russ22]

If this is true, then he doesn't know the true risk/reward numbers in football. I have seen him punt 3 times inside the 40 this year. This shows that he is a man that would rather lose conventionally than take the criticism of going for it when the numbers are in his favor.

[wholehog92]

Doesn't the house usually win at Black Jack?

On a new deck, house edge is roughly 1% due to going last and giving you the opportunity to bust yourself before they even try to beat you.  The player's edge is in the blackjack payout.  You can maximize your advantage by keeping up with which cards have been shown in a shoe.  You limit the house's edge by knowing when to hit and when to stay.  The bigger the shoe, the longer it takes for a deck to be able to swing to a player's favor.  A six card shoe is over 300 cards.  1/300 isn't much.  A 3 card shoe can clearly move twice as fast from favorable to unfavorable.  I prefer 3 card shoes.

He probably best at the higher dollar tables, they are single deck.

Wrong.  High dollar tables, you can request to play about anything you want.  You are a fool if you play single deck.  The house starts with their advantage on every hand.

There are also several different levels to "counting cards."  Some aren't too hard, some are dang near impossible without cheats.

If this is true, then he doesn't know the true risk/reward numbers in football. I have seen him punt 3 times inside the 40 this year. This shows that he is a man that would rather lose conventionally than take the criticism of going for it when the numbers are in his favor.

I tend to agree with this assessment.

[ricepig]

ricepig....
probably true, but do they pay 3/2 or 6/5 on a Blackjack?  I only play double deck, when available, to assure 3/2.  Too many players at a single deck, even paying 3/2, results in too few cards dealt and limits advantage significantly.  Now back to football.... CBB is a lot more intelligent than many give him credit for, and he is one driven coach, who loves his team.  What you see is what you get, and I like what I see. 

Correct, I think there are a few downtown that still pay 3/2, I have hard enough time counting to 10, just saying lots prefer single deck for card counting.

[ricepig]

All high stakes tables are not single deck

Didn't ever say that....

[ricepig]

On a new deck, house edge is roughly 1% due to going last and giving you the opportunity to bust yourself before they even try to beat you.  The player's edge is in the blackjack payout.  You can maximize your advantage by keeping up with which cards have been shown in a shoe.  You limit the house's edge by knowing when to hit and when to stay.  The bigger the shoe, the longer it takes for a deck to be able to swing to a player's favor.  A six card shoe is over 300 cards.  1/300 isn't much.  A 3 card shoe can clearly move twice as fast from favorable to unfavorable.  I prefer 3 card shoes.
Wrong.  High dollar tables, you can request to play about anything you want.  You are a fool if you play single deck.  The house starts with their advantage on every hand.

There are also several different levels to "counting cards."  Some aren't too hard, some are dang near impossible without cheats.

I tend to agree with this assessment.

I never said all high dollar tables were single deck, I said he probably played them. Also, not all single deck tables pay 6/5 or play 17 different, some do, some don't.

[wholehog92]

I never said all high dollar tables were single deck, I said he probably played them. Also, not all single deck tables pay 6/5 or play 17 different, some do, some don't.

Single deck deals face down and reshuffles on every hand if the table is full.  You lose the player's edge even if the house is playing 3/2.

FTR Here's what you typed "He probably best at the higher dollar tables, they are single deck."

How would we glean from that anything other than "all"?

[ricepig]

Single deck deals face down and reshuffles on every hand if the table is full.  You lose the player's edge even if the house is playing 3/2.

FTR Here's what you typed "He probably best at the higher dollar tables, they are single deck."

How would we glean from that anything other than "all"?

Reaching? Not all tables are full, fact.

[wholehog92]

Reaching? Not all tables are full, fact.

Reaching what?  Most shuffle every time even if you are the only playing single deck.  You never see them go more than two hands regardless.  If you are good enough to count cards tell me one reason why you choose a single deck table. 

You get a hand on the table, assume you get cooperative table mates that throw in where you can keep up with them and a really slow dealer that takes forever to count (who's counted to 21 more times in a day than you have in a lifetime) and now that you have found an advantage, you get one hand.

  It's absurd idea not based in reality and a mixup of people hearing stories of yesteryear and thinking the casinos didn't figure it out.  Newsflash, the 80s came and went and they figured it out.

I did a quick look of 6 casinos and didn't find one that stayed on a soft 17 or payed 3:2 on a single deck BJ.  What casino still pays 3:2?

[3kgthog]

So, our coach is on the level of some kids from MIT? I've heard it all now.

[Science Fiction Greg]

So, our coach is on the level of some kids from MIT? I've heard it all now.

facepalm.jpg

[showme]

Didn't ever say that....

ummm, come on man, that is exactly what was represented by the grammar that you used. You said " He probably best at the higher dollar tables, they are single deck."

That grammar indicates that high dollar tables are single deck. Not that "some" are single deck or "you can always find single deck games where you play".

[showme]

FTR Here's what you typed "He probably best at the higher dollar tables, they are single deck."

How would we glean from that anything other than "all"?

Exactly.

[ricepig]

Reaching what?  Most shuffle every time even if you are the only playing single deck.  You never see them go more than two hands regardless.  If you are good enough to count cards tell me one reason why you choose a single deck table. 

You get a hand on the table, assume you get cooperative table mates that throw in where you can keep up with them and a really slow dealer that takes forever to count (who's counted to 21 more times in a day than you have in a lifetime) and now that you have found an advantage, you get one hand.

  It's absurd idea not based in reality and a mixup of people hearing stories of yesteryear and thinking the casinos didn't figure it out.  Newsflash, the 80s came and went and they figured it out.

I did a quick look of 6 casinos and didn't find one that stayed on a soft 17 or payed 3:2 on a single deck BJ.  What casino still pays 3:2?

http://www.onlineblackjack.com/single-deck-vegas/

[Locutus_of_Boar]

Going for 2 doesn't mean we win the game.  It means we would be tied and still possibly lost anyway.   Fumbling a ball out of the endzone and a botched snap on a field goal attempt are more toward the helping us lose the game more than an extra point missed. 

Majority of coaches high school, college, and pro would have kicked the extra point.  There was still tons of time left in the game. You go for 2 if there is very little time left in the game and you want to make sure a td doesn't beat you. Td didn't beat us.  Poor execution in the first half and poor play calling in the second half is what caused this loss.

Going for 2 in Arkansas' case means either being able to batter it in or bootleg BA.  Bama has a spy locked onto BA all game and Arkansas was only averaging about 2 1/2 yards per carry so there was no reason to attempt a 2 point try unless behind by 2 points near the end of the game.

On the other hand when Arkansas gets good enough to crank out 6 YPA against strong SEC defenses the PAT choice will get more interesting.