Trade Brady?

[bennyl08]

No links or rumors, just a thought. Brady is hard on the decline right now, which means he is probably the 5th best quarterback in the NFL as opposed to top 3. He and Manning are both aging pretty fast, but Manning is like a fine wine right now, whereas, Brady is having to fight real hard to maintain success. One of the key differences (other than Manning has always been more cerebral than Brady) is that Manning moved teams to a really talented Broncos squad.

While Brady is still one of the better quarterbacks and is keeping the Patriots relevant, almost single handedly, the question that I was asking myself is, what are their plans this offseason? The team has a lot of holes they need to fill, and I just don't see them being able to get the talent they need for Brady to really compete for another Super Bowl.

Instead, Brady is showing right now that he still has a good amount of juice left in his box. However, think of how much he would be worth in a trade at the end of this season (barring some injury). The Patriots have some young talent on D, but overall, little depth and relying on some veterans to fill the holes. Garappolo looked pretty good in the preseason. They could really have a blockbuster trade to finish the season, rack up a ton of draft picks to rebuild this team, and then continue having success long term into the future.

On the other hand, preseason is not the best thing to base the future on your franchise on, and it's not easy to replace a qb of the caliber of Brady.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

It's truly amazing how successful Brady has been considering what seems like constant turnover with the offensive personnel in NE over the years.  Gronk can't stay healthy, and Hernandez and welker are gone. 

[ErieHog]

Hard on the decline is super subjective.

The guy just put up 4 TDs and 360+ passing yards on one of the better defenses in the league;   the Patriots problems, offensively, start up front, not at QB.   When they have any kind of protection at all, they still play very well.

[bennyl08]

Hard on the decline is super subjective.

The guy just put up 4 TDs and 360+ passing yards on one of the better defenses in the league;   the Patriots problems, offensively, start up front, not at QB.   When they have any kind of protection at all, they still play very well.

It's a bit of an overrated defense IMO, but I'd agree it was still one of the better D's. He was downright bad vs KC and MIA. The difference being, as he's gotten older, he's seen every blitz in the book, he can have better anticipation of where pressure will come from and when his receivers should get open. However, physically, he is declining. His ability to step into the pocket or sidestep pressure is diminished, forcing him to throw it away, force a throw, or take the sack. His arm strength is weakened, meaning that he has to throw on anticipation and timing. If he waits for the receiver to get open, there's a higher chance that he can't get the ball in time.

Similar things are happening with Manning. Difference with him is, he's a lot better at pre-snap reads than Brady is, and he is surrounded by better teammates than Brady. However, you put Brady on the Broncos and he hits 40 something, but not over 50 passing td's.

Given the Patriots are in first place and likely still the class of the AFC (l)East, they are still in all likelihood going to make the playoffs this season.  With (arguably) one of the best QB's of all time, you have to ride this thing for all it's worth and give this year the best shot you can. 

If there is a trade to come, I would think it would come in the off season as part of a total rebuilding effort.  Another question this brings to mind - will Belichick want to stay on through a rebuild?  He is 62 years old....

Did you think I was suggesting a mid-season trade? They are still making the playoffs, and assuming they keep Brady, will probably make the playoffs for another 5 years or so. However, the Bengals can probably make a good string of playoffs too, but that is in spite of Dalton, kind of the opposite of the pats. If the Bengals could have a guy like Brady, they would be killer. Similarly, if Brady could have a supporting cast like Dalton.

Brady's going to have to retire likely before they can rebuild the team again at their current pace. Brady would be a lot more successful somewhere like Tampa Bay possibly, while the pats could jumpstart their rebuilding and still have a pretty good qb as well. (TB has a very good team on paper, but they have just been bad out on the field the past several seasons.)

[ErieHog]

It's a bit of an overrated defense IMO, but I'd agree it was still one of the better D's. He was downright bad vs KC and MIA. The difference being, as he's gotten older, he's seen every blitz in the book, he can have better anticipation of where pressure will come from and when his receivers should get open. However, physically, he is declining. His ability to step into the pocket or sidestep pressure is diminished, forcing him to throw it away, force a throw, or take the sack. His arm strength is weakened, meaning that he has to throw on anticipation and timing. If he waits for the receiver to get open, there's a higher chance that he can't get the ball in time.

Similar things are happening with Manning. Difference with him is, he's a lot better at pre-snap reads than Brady is, and he is surrounded by better teammates than Brady. However, you put Brady on the Broncos and he hits 40 something, but not over 50 passing td's.

Did you think I was suggesting a mid-season trade? They are still making the playoffs, and assuming they keep Brady, will probably make the playoffs for another 5 years or so. However, the Bengals can probably make a good string of playoffs too, but that is in spite of Dalton, kind of the opposite of the pats. If the Bengals could have a guy like Brady, they would be killer. Similarly, if Brady could have a supporting cast like Dalton.

Brady's going to have to retire likely before they can rebuild the team again at their current pace. Brady would be a lot more successful somewhere like Tampa Bay possibly, while the pats could jumpstart their rebuilding and still have a pretty good qb as well. (TB has a very good team on paper, but they have just been bad out on the field the past several seasons.)

I have to disagree;  the receiving core deactivated his two top targets for the KC game, and it isn't the blitz that is killing the Patriots-- it is teams beating them without bringing extra pressure.

Brady is a lot closer to another Super Bowl berth in New England, than he would be anywhere else other than Denver or Seattle.

[bennyl08]

I have to disagree;  the receiving core deactivated his two top targets for the KC game, and it isn't the blitz that is killing the Patriots-- it is teams beating them without bringing extra pressure.

Brady is a lot closer to another Super Bowl berth in New England, than he would be anywhere else other than Denver or Seattle.

Never said the blitz was hurting him, just pressure in general.

Have to disagree on the last part. The only reason he continues to have an outside shot at a SB is because of himself and the benefit of having one of the top 5 NFL head coaches of all time, IMO. At least top 10 all time.

[ErieHog]

Never said the blitz was hurting him, just pressure in general.

Have to disagree on the last part. The only reason he continues to have an outside shot at a SB is because of himself and the benefit of having one of the top 5 NFL head coaches of all time, IMO. At least top 10 all time.

If the reason is 'because of himself', that indicates he is still a top flight quarterback.   If you argue that the Patriots have surrounded him with  sub-optimal talent, it argues strongly against a Brady regression.

[bennyl08]

If the reason is 'because of himself', that indicates he is still a top flight quarterback.   If you argue that the Patriots have surrounded him with  sub-optimal talent, it argues strongly against a Brady regression.

I said in the OP that he is still a top 5 qb in the league right now. But are you telling me he can still throw with as much zip as he used to? That he is still just as nimble in the pocket as he once was? He counters that by throwing with greater anticipation and going to a offense that relies more on quick passes than longer developing plays. They've also tried to establish more of a run game again the past two seasons, though that is true of any team that lacks one.

If I were the coach, I would probably keep him at least this year and next season before thinking about trading him. However, imagine the kings ransom he would garner if traded after this season vs when he falls out of the top 10. Would the extra year you get from Brady be worth the extra first round draft picks you would collect? It's a tough call. However, if he gets injured 2/3 through next season, his value drops a good bit.

For the record, I think he's top 5 this year, but is only top 10 next year, more due to the progression of other qb's than his own regression. However, in 2016, I think people really start to question how much longer he'll play. In season trade would be bad for the team, and do you really want to push it to the end of 2015? Is one more playoff run worth having a possibly better team for at least the next 5 years? 1 in the hand is worth two in the bush, but if there's 7 in the bush, you start to question what's in your hand.

[ErieHog]

I said in the OP that he is still a top 5 qb in the league right now. But are you telling me he can still throw with as much zip as he used to? That he is still just as nimble in the pocket as he once was? He counters that by throwing with greater anticipation and going to a offense that relies more on quick passes than longer developing plays. They've also tried to establish more of a run game again the past two seasons, though that is true of any team that lacks one.

If I were the coach, I would probably keep him at least this year and next season before thinking about trading him. However, imagine the kings ransom he would garner if traded after this season vs when he falls out of the top 10. Would the extra year you get from Brady be worth the extra first round draft picks you would collect? It's a tough call. However, if he gets injured 2/3 through next season, his value drops a good bit.

For the record, I think he's top 5 this year, but is only top 10 next year, more due to the progression of other qb's than his own regression. However, in 2016, I think people really start to question how much longer he'll play. In season trade would be bad for the team, and do you really want to push it to the end of 2015? Is one more playoff run worth having a possibly better team for at least the next 5 years? 1 in the hand is worth two in the bush, but if there's 7 in the bush, you start to question what's in your hand.

He's more consistent with his velocity than Peyton Manning is, right now.  Its a bit of a dirty, unacknowledged secret, but Manning never has recovered completely the velocity on his fastball, but has done wonders with exploiting his accuracy and big receivers in Denver.

And no, Brady, even as a Top 5 QB, is not going to command a King's ransom.  He's a $42 million cap hit for whoever has him the next 3 years, or $29 for the last 2--  and that kind of money isn't easy to shift. They only way to make that work would be to take on someone else's toxic asset, while trying to rework the team around a new quarterback.

And yes, you take 2-3 seasons of Super Bowl contention,  while trying to ramp up the rest of the roster around Brady as he begins to decline.    Otherwise, you end up in NFL hell,  where you waste a decade of moves built around staying young, flexible, and with as big a window as possible for your franchise QB,   with lost seasons trying to develop a replacement QB, going 9-7, 8-8, and not getting a realistic chance at a franchise-changer if your next QB doesn't pan out.

[bennyl08]

I disagree that he is more consistent than Manning, but earlier in the thread I noted that Manning is declining just as much as Brady physically. It's just that Manning is a much more cerebral qb than Brady and also has better talent around him.

You don't think that Brady would garner more than the trades for Julio Jones or RG3? Even Trent Richardson's trade ended up netting the Brown's two extra first round picks.

This next part isn't so much an argument as an exploration of the data: Pat's playoff results of past several years:
2007: Beat the jags of all teams and then the chargers who always folded in the playoffs before losing a giants team that barely made the playoffs and lost twice to Grossman. They still made the Super Bowl, but that was a weaker year in the NFL.

2008: No brady, no playoffs

2009: Lost in the wildcard to the ravens pretty badly

2010: Lost to Sanchez's Jets in the division round.

2011: Whooped the Tebow led Broncos, then the ravens beat themselves in the champ game, then they lost to the giants again, but this giants team was a lot better than the one before. Also, Patriots did some stuff to beat themselves in this game.

2012: Beat a Texans team soundly, though the texans should have lost in the wildcard round had they played anybody other than the overmatched bengals. Then lose soundly to a ravens team who was admittedly overachieving.

2013: Beat a young colts team. I think the colts would win that game this year, but even last year, that colts team took down pretty much every top team (while also being very inconsistent and losing to some low end teams), but that's still a really good victory for the pats. Then they lost to the high flying Broncos team.

Overall, they haven't beaten too many top level teams in the playoffs recently. The Ravens and the Colts being their two best victories. In their defense, the AFC hasn't been as strong in recent years. Most of the strong teams have been NFC.

[ErieHog]

I disagree that he is more consistent than Manning, but earlier in the thread I noted that Manning is declining just as much as Brady physically. It's just that Manning is a much more cerebral qb than Brady and also has better talent around him.

You don't think that Brady would garner more than the trades for Julio Jones or RG3? Even Trent Richardson's trade ended up netting the Brown's two extra first round picks.

This next part isn't so much an argument as an exploration of the data: Pat's playoff results of past several years:
2007: Beat the jags of all teams and then the chargers who always folded in the playoffs before losing a giants team that barely made the playoffs and lost twice to Grossman. They still made the Super Bowl, but that was a weaker year in the NFL.

2008: No brady, no playoffs

2009: Lost in the wildcard to the ravens pretty badly

2010: Lost to Sanchez's Jets in the division round.

2011: Whooped the Tebow led Broncos, then the ravens beat themselves in the champ game, then they lost to the giants again, but this giants team was a lot better than the one before. Also, Patriots did some stuff to beat themselves in this game.

2012: Beat a Texans team soundly, though the texans should have lost in the wildcard round had they played anybody other than the overmatched bengals. Then lose soundly to a ravens team who was admittedly overachieving.

2013: Beat a young colts team. I think the colts would win that game this year, but even last year, that colts team took down pretty much every top team (while also being very inconsistent and losing to some low end teams), but that's still a really good victory for the pats. Then they lost to the high flying Broncos team.

Overall, they haven't beaten too many top level teams in the playoffs recently. The Ravens and the Colts being their two best victories. In their defense, the AFC hasn't been as strong in recent years. Most of the strong teams have been NFC.

In short, no;  the only QBs in the league that draw that kind of package at this very second, are Aaron Rodgers and maybe Peyton,  if the destination team was assured he intends to play out his contract.

Expensive contracts for older quarterbacks are just super hard to trade.   

[ErieHog]

Here's a piece from ESPN today that talks about a hypothetical trade value for Brady--

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/page/hotread141022TB/nfl-trade-proposal-new-england-patriots-quarterback-tom-brady-houston-texans?ex_cid=espnFB


1 1st round pick in 2015, and Andre Johnson's $45 million cap hit over 3 years.

That's a much more realistic trade value for Brady, today.    You aren't garnering multiple number ones.   

[clutch]

Here's a piece from ESPN today that talks about a hypothetical trade value for Brady--

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/page/hotread141022TB/nfl-trade-proposal-new-england-patriots-quarterback-tom-brady-houston-texans?ex_cid=espnFB


1 1st round pick in 2015, and Andre Johnson's $45 million cap hit over 3 years.

That's a much more realistic trade value for Brady, today.    You aren't garnering multiple number ones.   

Lol that might send Mallett into a rampage if that were to happen.

[Grag T]

Yeah go ahead and trade Brady, lol.  He just crapped all over the broncos last night and made them look like a high school team.

[ErieHog]

Never said the blitz was hurting him, just pressure in general.

Have to disagree on the last part. The only reason he continues to have an outside shot at a SB is because of himself and the benefit of having one of the top 5 NFL head coaches of all time, IMO. At least top 10 all time.

So, how did that work out again?

[Buff]

So, how did that work out again?

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