What does Northern Illinois's winning history tell us?

[Biggus Piggus]

The bad news is that now that some of our posters have experienced a couple of wins back to back and one against a legit Big 12 team, if we don't come out and blow NIU's doors off, folks "may" react as if we might as well have lost.

My hope is that the Arkansas defense makes some improvement and addresses some of its ongoing issues. Also hope to see young players continue to help out more. This game is a fine template for what the Hogs will see from most SEC offenses -- TB run threat, QB run threat, speed at WR, good passer, good Oline. Big question for me is whether the Hogs can develop a more disruptive strategy against these offenses with dual-threat QBs.

[TexHog188]

I think if we can be efficient in the passing game; i.e. catch the ball on 3rd down to sustain a few drives, complete a few on first down to keep the safeties back and LB'ers honest, and stretch the field vertically on 2-3 balls, we will win this going away.  If we simply try to bully them down the field, the game will be close, but we still win.  Only if we try and change who we are by slinging it all over the place will we loose. I think we are just more talented across the board.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

My hope is that the Arkansas defense makes some improvement and addresses some of its ongoing issues. Also hope to see young players continue to help out more. This game is a fine template for what the Hogs will see from most SEC offenses -- TB run threat, QB run threat, speed at WR, good passer, good Oline. Big question for me is whether the Hogs can develop a more disruptive strategy against these offenses with dual-threat QBs.

While not an all-encompassing stat that tells the entire story, let's look at the average distance "to go" of all 3rd down attempts, the average yards of successfully converted 3rd attempts and the average yards of unsuccessfully converted 3rd down attempts, by Arkansas and the average of the two legit opponents that they have faced...both of which were HUNH offenses.

                     Avg 3rd Dwn              Avg Yds of                     Avg Yds of
                        Yardage        Successful 3rd Dwn Conv      Failed 3rd Dwn Conv
Arkansas               5.4                          4.3                                6.3
Aub & TT              6.5                          5.0                                8.7

No. Illinois             5.8                          4.8                                6.5
NW & UNLV           7.0                          5.8                                9.1

As you can see, the averages of all 3rd down to go yards, those that were successfully converted and those that failed, are somewhat similar between Arkansas and NIU.

The difference being, Arkansas converted on 43.5% of their 3rd downs against those two opponents and allowed their opponents (mostly Auburn) to convert on 60.7% of their 3rd down attempts.

Northern Illinois on the other hand, converted on 69.0% of their 3rd down attempts and only allowed thier opponents to convert on 45.7% of their third down attempts.

Of course this doesn't account for everything because some teams in some games have very few 3rd down attempts because they gain so most yardage on 1st and 2nd down, so fewer 3rd down attempts.

For N. Illinois they converted on 29 of 42 third downs while their opponents only converted on 16 of 35.

In those two games, Arkansas converted on 11 of 23 while our opponents converted on 17 of 28.

This could be a very close game for a while, until one team or the other decides to stubbornly force their will on the other. I believe that will be Arkansas in the long run as long as we don't turn the ball over at key times and we minimize NIU's big plays on defense.

[HogFan219]

What it tells me is that the Hogs need to come out and relentlessly and mercilessly  hit them hard and often. Like Mike Tyson said, "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."

The key will be to knock them out in the first half so the half time locker room is more of a "How do we make this inevitable defeat look respectable?", rather than "Hey guys, we're in a position to keep this close and make it anobody's game in the 4th quarter!"

NIU is a respectable team. But these Hogs are good enough to end their dreams early. Just don't let NIU'so hopes get a toe hold of security. End it quickly, decisively, and move on to aTm.

[Paul]

NIU upset #21 Bama & #15 Maryland in 2003.  Jus sayin

[HogFanatic]

I know that BB said running the ball every play won't be the formula for victory this weekend, but I don't buy that.

Arkansas is TOO big and strong across the offensive line for NIU to match up in any way, shape, or form. Arkansas will blow those guys off the line, and no matter how close the game may be in the first half, by the fourth quarter Arkansas will be straight murdering their defense if necessary to score points.

Arkansas will pull away from this team in the second half exactly like they did against the undersized TT Raiders. Plus this game is at home. NIU will score somewhere around 28 like Tech did, and Arkansas will score half a hundred or more.

This Arkansas team is NOTHING like last year's team. And the defense looks aggressive and pretty danged salty.

Arkansas also wins the turnover margin again this weekend, and I am stoked about that. (they had their hands on FIVE interceptions last week, came away with 2) When was the last time you could say THAT about a Razorback team -- especially one facing a "high powered offense?"

Arkansas rolls again.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I know that BB said running the ball every play won't be the formula for victory this weekend, but I don't buy that.

Arkansas is TOO big and strong across the offensive line for NIU to match up in any way, shape, or form. Arkansas will blow those guys off the line, and no matter how close the game may be in the first half, by the fourth quarter Arkansas will be straight murdering their defense if necessary to score points.

Arkansas will pull away from this team in the second half exactly like they did against the undersized TT Raiders. Plus this game is at home. NIU will score somewhere around 28 like Tech did, and Arkansas will score half a hundred or more.

This Arkansas team is NOTHING like last year's team. And the defense looks aggressive and pretty danged salty.

Arkansas also wins the turnover margin again this weekend, and I am stoked about that. (they had their hands on FIVE interceptions last week, came away with 2) When was the last time you could say THAT about a Razorback team -- especially one facing a "high powered offense?"

Arkansas rolls again.

I think that we throw more this weekend because we need to and the opportunity is there. We will run as well, but a more balanced look coming this weekend in preparation for A&M the following week. Lots of play action passing, and you know that they are going to bite on the run fake.

[Jborohog09]

NIU upset #21 Bama & #15 Maryland in 2003.  Jus sayin

Which has nothing to do with this game.  Alabama was also 4-9 that season.

[Pig Worshipper]

I watched NIU flounder around on offense in the Northwestern game until Drew Hare came in at quarterback. The offense clicked from that point on. I'm not saying NIU is going to win this game but I'm certain they have the ability to make things interesting when on offense. Also, I believe they are a better team than Texas Tech. It will be great if we can ball-control this game to another win, whether by 1 point or 50, just win.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Another stat of note, since 2010 NIU is 5-6 in away games or at neutral locations vs. more major opponents.

Average points scored for NIU-       26
Average points scored for OOC Opp-28

They play it close, but tend to lose more than half the time. Still, a formidable and respectable opponent coming out of the MAC.

[PorkRinds]

NIU upset #21 Bama & #15 Maryland in 2003.  Jus sayin

11 years ago. Just sayin...

[Pork Twain]

NIU upset #21 Bama & #15 Maryland in 2003.  Jus sayin

11 years ago, just saying.

[Pork Twain]

I am going to leave it because it is crazy we thought almost the exact same thing after reading that post.

[Pork Twain]

Hard to compare AR to NIU and their respective opponents, because who we have played, dwarfs who they have played.

CBB might have "known" NIU but that was in the past and the HC has changed since then.  Not unlike saying a team that played us when CBP was here would know what to expect when playing us now.

[Choctaw Hog]

Nothing. Different team, different time, different opponent. History will hand nothing to do with Saturday's game.

[Locutus_of_Boar]

For NIU, outside of the Orange Bowl against FSU, Arkansas is the biggest shot they have had to make a name for themselves.  SEC team, coming off a pretty good show that has a lot of people talking about them, and a shot to take them down, at home.  Being on the road is nothing new to them.

However, imo, they have built their name beating up son some pretty bad MAC teams.

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/recap?gameId=232630333

NIU snaps 0-8 losing streak against SEC

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. (AP) -- The program known for its 23-game losing streak beat the one famous for Bear Bryant and national championships.

Josh Haldi threw two second-half touchdown passes and Michael Turner ran for 156 yards as Northern Illinois beat Alabama (No. 21 AP) 19-16 on Saturday night.

"When you talk Alabama, you're talking one of the best," Huskies coach Joe Novak said. "This is a win we'll never forget."

Nor will Alabama (2-2), a 14-point favorite that couldn't muster much second-half offense or bring down Turner.

"We played pitiful tonight," said Tide tailback Shaud Williams, stymied until a 54-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter. "We couldn't have beaten anybody the way we played tonight.

"We played pathetic. I've never been so embarrassed in my life."

Then again, there's no shame in losing to the Huskies (3-0) these days. The team that couldn't win in the 1990s toppled its second ranked team of the season after opening with an overtime upset of Maryland (then No. 14 ESPN/USA Today, No. 15 AP).

Northern Illinois had been 0-8 against Southeastern Conference teams.

"We don't get a lot of opportunities to come down to the Mecca of college football and play a team like Alabama," said Haldi, who was 16-of-24 for 149 yards.

Northern Illinois borrowed the Bear's formula, pounding between the tackles, stuffing the run and using a low-risk passing game that was just enough.

...

"I really don't think they respected us as much as they should have," Huskies receiver P.J. Fleck said. "Sometimes the most talented teams don't win football games, and I really think they're more athletic.

"But it's the team."

[12247]

This game sets perfect for our players to get the big head after last week and come in just going through the motions.  I believe the staff knows better but it is difficult to convince 100 plus players that you are telling it like it is.  We looked terrible against our third opponent last year after winning the first 2 in decent fashion.

I think we finally settle down and run the ball on them at will.  I also believe they move the ball on us at will.  We will be home and the refs should take care of us because NIU is a rent a win.  I think we'll win this game with the run, run, run game plan.  Their pass defense may not be real good but our passing game isn't real good either.  I see our advantages as better running, home game and homer calls.

[Paul]

11 years ago, just saying.

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it"  George Santayana.  Later paraphrased by Churchill.

[DeltaBoy]

NIU upset #21 Bama & #15 Maryland in 2003.  Jus sayin

Umm that was 11 years ago. No Nick at Bama back then.

We will line up and run over them till they go 10 in the box as a total despration move then BA over the TOP for another HOG TD they back out to stop the pass and we go back to ramming it down their throats.  2nd Half a Replay of the TT game.

[Biggus Piggus]

Which has nothing to do with this game.  Alabama was also 4-9 that season.

But NIU can claim they beat a ranked team forevermore, regardless of how horrible and probation-weakened that Alabama was in 2003.

[DeltaBoy]

But NIU can claim they beat a ranked team forevermore, regardless of how horrible and probation-weakened that Alabama was in 2003.

Well yes and so can one of the directional colleges in Louisiana.