Bielema Coached Teams and the Forward Pass

[BRHogfan]

Since 2007, Bielema Coached Teams are 25-4 when they had less than 21 pass attempts and they are 27-29 36-29 in games where they attempted more than 20 pass attempts. 

I don't have stats on the 2006 season when he went 12-1.

As an Arkansas Coach he has 4 of his 5 wins in games where they passed the ball less than 21 times. 

I can see why this guy prefers running the ball.

[AugustaHog]

In fairness, BA's numbers look a ton different if we had connected on the 3-4 down field passes that were thrown.  We just missed on those two deep balls and Morgan probably should've pulled that one in for the TD.  Great effort and it would've been a heck of a catch.  I think if he was sitting at 8-12 for 130 yds and a TD our outlook on what was accomplished passing the ball would be totally different.  Those aren't staggering numbers, but incredibly efficient.  BA didn't do anything mind boggling on Saturday besides make great decisions and key plays when needed.  The 3rd down throw to JWill and the TD run were crucial to the win.  If we tweak our timing just a bit and get BA and the WRs synched up on the deep balls, we could really bite people hard with that.

[Cure]

Not worried about the passing game, they can pass if they need to.

[AugustaHog]

I agree.  I watched the game with my Dad on Saturday and neither of us could get over just how poised and confident BA looked.  Totally different looking kid from the past two seasons.  I'm very proud of his success as he was, fairly or unfairly, the goat from last year.  The great thing is that the rest of the team has improved along with him.  If we keep chugging along, we are going to see some great things accomplished.

[Hog Fan...DOH!]

Correct me I'm wrong here, but didn't Brandon convert two big 3rd and longs?  That's as big in my mind as any deep bomb.  You've GOT to sustain drives.
Now, when we play the big boys, you've GOT to hit those big plays, too.  You can't miss scoring opportunities.

[greenie]

Teams pass more when they are behind and likely to lose.  There is weak correlation between percent passing plays and winning/losing.  Lots of other factors involved. 

[Ex-Trumpet]

Passing stats are usually skewed for running teams; many times, teams are down and trying to catch up, thus, skewing the stats.

[JayBell]

It's not necessarily that Bielema "prefers running the ball," it's just that his teams are built to succeed that way.  He's been better at recruiting running backs, offensive linemen and tight ends at both schools than he has been at recruiting quarterbacks and receivers (of course that may be changing).

What those numbers indicate is a formula, not a preference.  It shows that when Bielema's teams jump on a team early and wear them down with the run, then they usually win.  There's no need to pass in situations like that.  The losses indicate games where his offense has had to get pass-happy when trailing in games.

[Mike_e]

Last year probably skewed his numbers too.

He also doesn't seem to be as big of a meddler as some of the coaches we've had in the past so taking a long look at CJC's tendencies might be a good thing as well.

[onebadrubi]

Something I have been preaching since last season and still have not seen yet.  Chaney, Allen, and the receivers need to have a handful of plays, that puts a receiver, RB, or TE in holes of a defense.  All of our passes on longer than 6 or 7 yards are putting passes into traffic, which fine and football.  But you will see people who play football with ACE sets and two TE's like us (BP, 49er's, Manning's [both], and many more) will put players in space.  Now, can we blame talent?  Sure, we could, but I think the talent to do it is there.  I see a lot of our routes being put in the heart of the defense.  If you watched the SNF game last night you would have seen both teams do what I am speaking of.  Brandon Marshal first TD pass was open because other receivers drug the defense to get him open.  75% of Kapernicks completions were to wide open guys, because they were put in holes of the defense, we are use to seeing this from the past regime. 

Basically what I am saying, Chaney has to coach to get us there, put the receivers in those positions.  This, will brings me back to your topic, in that I think you will see us move the ball against teams we have to pass 20-25 times against, essentially negating your weak correlation. 

[onebadrubi]

It's not necessarily that Bielema "prefers running the ball," it's just that his teams are built to succeed that way.  He's been better at recruiting running backs, offensive linemen and tight ends at both schools than he has been at recruiting quarterbacks and receivers (of course that may be changing).

What those numbers indicate is a formula, not a preference.  It shows that when Bielema's teams jump on a team early and wear them down with the run, then they usually win.  There's no need to pass in situations like that.  The losses indicate games where his offense has had to get pass-happy when trailing in games.

Too build and expand on what you say, people often forget he's a defensive coach.  His offenses are setup to allow his defenses to excel as well.  Spread HUNH teams seldom have good defenses.  If you can pound the ball, have 6-8 drives a game that are 12-14 play drives it kills the opponents offensive strengths. 

[JayBell]

Chaney had some high flying offenses at Tennessee.  I seriously doubt the team's lack of passing yards or open space available for skill players is due to his play calling.

[ChicoHog]

I would like to see us get some YAC.  Most of our receptions are only good for the yards the ball was thrown.  that goes back to hitting guys on the run on slants and post patterns.  We will get there.  Hopefully we will see it in the next couple of games, more likely vs SEc competition when the run may be tougher and we have to be more balanced.  No sense showing everything now unless you have to. 

[Nosboar Accubond]

What do these look like when excluding last year?

[JayBell]

Too build and expand on what you say, people often forget he's a defensive coach.  His offenses are setup to allow his defenses to excel as well.  Spread HUNH teams seldom have good defenses.  If you can pound the ball, have 6-8 drives a game that are 12-14 play drives it kills the opponents offensive strengths.

Good point.  It's strategy as much as anything.

[Biggus Piggus]

I can see why this guy prefers running the ball.

That's data mining. High correlation between losing and being forced to play from behind, throw in obvious passing situations. You'll find that pass-happy teams average more passes in losses too.

[Vantage 8 dude]

Since 2007, Bielema Coached Teams are 25-4 when they had less than 21 pass attempts and they are 27-29 in games where they attempted more than 20 pass attempts. 

I don't have stats on the 2006 season when he went 12-1.

As an Arkansas Coach he has 4 of his 5 wins in games where they passed the ball less than 21 times. 

I can see why this guy prefers running the ball.

Well so much for the futility of "dinosaur football". But..but a team can't possibly win without the HUNH "spread" in this day in age. After all don't all the "experts" agree with such?!

[BRHogfan]

What do these look like when excluding last year?

I'll exclude both years at Arkansas, and I only have stats from 2007 - 2012 at Wisconsin

23-2 when passing less than 21 times.

33-21 when passing more than 20 times. 

Ugh my numbers got messed up

21-2 when passing less than 21 times
35-21 when passing more than 20 times

(My original numbers will also be edited.   36 -29 including Arkansas when passing more than 20 times)

[BRHogfan]

That's data mining. High correlation between losing and being forced to play from behind, throw in obvious passing situations. You'll find that pass-happy teams average more passes in losses too.

Okay good point.  I will revise my numbers.

Bielema at Wisconsin from 2008 - 2012 

29-6 when throwing the ball less than the season average
18-14 when throwing more than season average 

Petrino at Arkansas from 2008 - 2011

19 - 5 when throwing the ball less than the season average
15 - 12 when throwing more than season average

Both coaches improved their winning percentage by 13 percentage points when throwing less than their season average even though Bielema teams were throwing it less than 25 times per game while Petrino teams were throwing it less than 36 times per game.

Great Point Biggus!