Tom Fornelli picked the Hogs for an interesting reason

[Fayettechill14]

On CBS Sports' podcast for week 3, Tom Fornelli said he took the Hogs with his #8 confidence pick (out of 10), saying that he saw all he needed to see in the Nicholls State game.

Not that we ran the ball well or anything (Nicholls State was really bad), but instead Fornelli said he covered Wisconsin for years, and he knew that anytime Wisconsin would annihilate some small school, it was a sign that Bielema really liked his team and was confident. If Wisconsin struggled with them, Bielema knew there were some issues.

I decided to fact check him, and the results pretty much back him up:

Season  Record       Notable games
2006      11-1         W. Illinois, 34-10
2007      9-4          Citadel, 45-31
2008      7-6           Cal Poly, 36-35 (OT)
2009     10-3         Wofford, 44-14
2010     11-2         Austin Peay, 70-3 and Indiana, 83-20
2011     11-3         South Dakota, 59-10 and Indiana, 59-7
2012     8-6           UNI, 26-21

2013     3-9          Samford, 31-21
2014      ??           Nicholls State, 73-7

Like clockwork, Bielema's best teams ran up insane scores on weaker opponents. When his team wasn't as good, those games tended to be lower scoring. The difference is more stark than most other teams. Fornelli took the destruction of Nicholls State (compared to Samford last year) as a sign that Bielema feels good about his team.

I don't know if I agree, I just thought it was interesting.

[Gonzo]

Um, ok, the Hogs ran up the score on a lesser opponent, that's good. And if they hadn't, that would have been not so good?  Doesn't seem all that insightful to me.    That being said, I hope last week was more indicative of what's to come than the second half of the opener.



Go Hogs!

[Cure]

Arkansas is completely capable of playing above .500 football imho, biggest question is if they can get some depth developed on defense.

They are a much improved team, I've noticed that for sure.

[Doug]

FYI, had the Hogs not scored like they did... they would've looked like South Carolina or Kentucky.

Alabama (41)   FAU (0)
Arkansas (73)   Nicholls State (7)
Auburn (59)   San Jose State (13)
Florida (65)   Eastern Michigan (0)
Kentucky (20)   Ohio (3)
LSU (56)   Sam Houston State (0)
Mississippi State (47)   UAB (34)
South Carolina (33)   East Carolina (23)
Tennessee (34)   Arkansas State (19)
Texas AM (73)   Lamar (3)
Toledo (24)   Missouri (49)
Vanderbilt (3)   Ole Miss (41)

[LZH]

I'm damn-near about to talk myself into thinking BB might be onto something.....close anyway.  I've re-watched parts of both of our games and have seen parts of both of Tech's games and I'm convinced that if the eye test is any indication, we're gonna rough Tech up pretty good.  I certainly feel alot better than I did this time last week.

I told ya'll I'd keep my options open about BB, and that if we go down there and beat the living crap out of them then I'll start singing a little different tune. 

[dj shanon "Notshavin" smeya]

I told ya'll I'd keep my options open about BB, and that if we go down there and beat the living crap out of them then I'll start singing a little different tune. 

This game is HUGE.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

We gonna win.

[LZH]

This game is HUGE.

Yeah, I didn't wanna mention how disappointing it would be if we go down there and get beat.  Just because I feel better about the game now than I did when we started talking about it Sunday or Monday doesn't mean that BB needs this win any less.  Your words say it all.....this game is huge.

[Oklahawg]

Um, ok, the Hogs ran up the score on a lesser opponent, that's good. And if they hadn't, that would have been not so good?  Doesn't seem all that insightful to me.    That being said, I hope last week was more indicative of what's to come than the second half of the opener.



Go Hogs!

Missing the premise of an argument is more important than missing the argument itself sometimes.

It amazes me that someone can bring fact-based data to the board and not get engaged in similar fashion.

[redeye]

That is interesting, but I have a hard to buying it, because Nicholls State was just so bad.  I'm not trying to slight a nice win for us, but I think if we had handed the ball to the Nicholls State NG, and told him to turn around and run, that he would have scored a TD for us.

I've noted previously that I don't recall such a dominant win by Arkansas in 40 years, but I don't recall such a pitiful performance by an opponent, either.

[Jon Ham]

I've noted previously that I don't recall such a dominant win by Arkansas in 40 years, but I don't recall such a pitiful performance by an opponent, either.

Yep. It's an interesting take by Tom Fornelli, but I think every Razorback team I've ever witnessed would have been able to score as many points as they wanted to on that Nicholls team. At first I was laughing about how bad Nicholls was, but then at about the 2nd quarter, I started to feel bad for them. Even if Fornelli is right about the trend, I don't think the Nicholls game qualifies.

[onebadrubi]

I'm damn-near about to talk myself into thinking BB might be onto something.....close anyway.  I've re-watched parts of both of our games and have seen parts of both of Tech's games and I'm convinced that if the eye test is any indication, we're gonna rough Tech up pretty good.  I certainly feel alot better than I did this time last week.

I told ya'll I'd keep my options open about BB, and that if we go down there and beat the living crap out of them then I'll start singing a little different tune.

I knew I liked you for some reason.  Atta boy

[carolinahogger]

On CBS Sports' podcast for week 3, Tom Fornelli said he took the Hogs with his #8 confidence pick (out of 10), saying that he saw all he needed to see in the Nicholls State game.

Not that we ran the ball well or anything (Nicholls State was really bad), but instead Fornelli said he covered Wisconsin for years, and he knew that anytime Wisconsin would annihilate some small school, it was a sign that Bielema really liked his team and was confident. If Wisconsin struggled with them, Bielema knew there were some issues.

I decided to fact check him, and the results pretty much back him up:

Season  Record       Notable games
2006      11-1         W. Illinois, 34-10
2007      9-4          Citadel, 45-31
2008      7-6           Cal Poly, 36-35 (OT)
2009     10-3         Wofford, 44-14
2010     11-2         Austin Peay, 70-3 and Indiana, 83-20
2011     11-3         South Dakota, 59-10 and Indiana, 59-7
2012     8-6           UNI, 26-21

2013     3-9          Samford, 31-21
2014      ??           Nicholls State, 73-7

Like clockwork, Bielema's best teams ran up insane scores on weaker opponents. When his team wasn't as good, those games tended to be lower scoring. The difference is more stark than most other teams. Fornelli took the destruction of Nicholls State (compared to Samford last year) as a sign that Bielema feels good about his team.

I don't know if I agree, I just thought it was interesting.

TLDR:  Correlation = Causation

OP, I am not picking on you.  You summarized the opinion of the writer.  Thanks for the thread.

[LZH]

I knew I liked you for some reason.  Atta boy

Let's not start swapping spit just yet, we gotta win first.                     

[31to6]

FYI, had the Hogs not scored like they did... they would've looked like South Carolina or Kentucky.

That's not really fair to South Carolina. ECU is not a bad team and for their conference, they are very physical.

[lefty08]

That is interesting, but I have a hard to buying it, because Nicholls State was just so bad.  I'm not trying to slight a nice win for us, but I think if we had handed the ball to the Nicholls State NG, and told him to turn around and run, that he would have scored a TD for us.

I've noted previously that I don't recall such a dominant win by Arkansas in 40 years, but I don't recall such a pitiful performance by an opponent, either.

The 2 usually go hand in hand 

[LZH]

That's not really fair to South Carolina. ECU is not a bad team and for their conference, they are very physical.

They certainly got my attention back in '09.  By the end of the season, Petrino's team was pretty damn salty and I figured it was a total mismatch.  Wrong.

[redeye]

The 2 usually go hand in hand 

Yea, no doubt that our massive OL gave Nicholls State fits and that's real.

[AugustaHog]

Guys I'm doing all I can to not get too overconfident about this one.  I'm a little worried about the back 7 but can't imagine them stopping us.  I really hope we put the rest of college football on notice that we will no longer be a doormat.

[dj shanon "Notshavin" smeya]

Yeah, I didn't wanna mention how disappointing it would be if we go down there and get beat.  Just because I feel better about the game now than I did when we started talking about it Sunday or Monday doesn't mean that BB needs this win any less.  Your words say it all.....this game is huge.

I know that's very "captain obvious" of me, but there aren't many other ways to say it.  I think about 40% of the fan base would agree.  This game could go a long way securing a large majority of support for BB.

I don't like hanging everything on one game, I do think this team could recover if we were to lose.  But to win would really start some major momentum.

[The NewEra]

I'm damn-near about to talk myself into thinking BB might be onto something.....close anyway.  I've re-watched parts of both of our games and have seen parts of both of Tech's games and I'm convinced that if the eye test is any indication, we're gonna rough Tech up pretty good.  I certainly feel alot better than I did this time last week.

I told ya'll I'd keep my options open about BB, and that if we go down there and beat the living crap out of them then I'll start singing a little different tune.

Dang, I'm proud of you man

[Hogfaniam]

They certainly got my attention back in '09.  By the end of the season, Petrino's team was pretty damn salty and I figured it was a total mismatch.  Wrong.

It was too cold, just too cold

[luke hawg]

There was a girl at work that was complaining about the way Bielema ran up the score. I told her she better develop thicker skin b/c it's not going to be the first time. If your success is dependent on smashing the football, your going to destroy weaker opponents. There just isn't much the opposing team can do when they are being pushed 5 yards down field. There is no defensive adjustment once putting 9 in the box doesn't work to slow that kind of team down. There also becomes virtually no risk of losing those games. It's what I call shrinking your schedule. Hopefully we will easily push around our non conference schedule this year which leaves us with an 8 game season. After this year I'd like to be pushing around ole miss, Missouri, and MSU. This leaves us with a 5 game season possibly 4 depending on who our East opponent is. This is how you stack recruiting classes and win a championship at Arkansas.

[lumphog]

I'm damn-near about to talk myself into thinking BB might be onto something.....close anyway.  I've re-watched parts of both of our games and have seen parts of both of Tech's games and I'm convinced that if the eye test is any indication, we're gonna rough Tech up pretty good.  I certainly feel alot better than I did this time last week.

I told ya'll I'd keep my options open about BB, and that if we go down there and beat the living crap out of them then I'll start singing a little different tune. 

Come on in boys, the water is fine!!!!

[PonderinHog]

It was too cold, just too cold

Can you imagine what one of Mallett's passes must have felt like that night?  Geez Louise.

[dj shanon "Notshavin" smeya]

There was a girl at work that was complaining about the way Bielema ran up the score. I told her she better develop thicker skin b/c it's not going to be the first time. If your success is dependent on smashing the football, your going to destroy weaker opponents. There just isn't much the opposing team can do when they are being pushed 5 yards down field. There is no defensive adjustment once putting 9 in the box doesn't work to slow that kind of team down. There also becomes virtually no risk of losing those games. It's what I call shrinking your schedule. Hopefully we will easily push around our non conference schedule this year which leaves us with an 8 game season. After this year I'd like to be pushing around ole miss, Missouri, and MSU. This leaves us with a 5 game season possibly 4 depending on who our East opponent is. This is how you stack recruiting classes and win a championship at Arkansas.

What did she expect them to do?  When you get the ball all the way to the end zone on the first play from scrimmage, it's not like you can stop and just fall down short of the end zone.

[Dwight_K_Shrute]

If you struggle against FCS teams even in wins you will most likely struggle against FBS teams. Revelutionary thinking.

[LZH]

I know that's very "captain obvious" of me, but there aren't many other ways to say it.  I think about 40% of the fan base would agree.  This game could go a long way securing a large majority of support for BB.

I don't like hanging everything on one game, I do think this team could recover if we were to lose.  But to win would really start some major momentum.

I'm trying to stay positive, optimistic.  But I really have gotten a dose of confidence in the past couple of days....from where, who knows.  I've watched some video of us and them and do feel much better.  I realize that I'm not a coach so I'm not necessarily interested in personnel or schematics or whatever, but we all have our certain knacks for taking a team's temperature by what we see on film in several respects.

While I'm yet to be impressed with the coaching job BB has done on the field thus far, we do look more organized than last year and even this past spring.  I haven't seen much grabassery in between plays as I did last year...and I don't mean goofing off.  I mean having a purpose, some snap, some swagger - the kind you don't fake, the kind where you're not just trying to show off.  If it's BB, or Smith, or Chaney....somebody has these kids wanting to play some damn football.

Tech, on the other hand, I see just the opposite.  Now alot of that was possibly because their opponent wasn't from the SEC, but when you check them out "when no one is watching" as they say, they're not ready for some big boy ball.  They very well could be come Saturday, they have some talent and I think their coach might be pretty good.  But he hasn't had their butts in gear for the past two games and it shows during the plays and between plays and on the sideline.  They've had this game circled, for sure, so that may change.  But like I said the other day, if I were a Tech fan I would be concerned....and not just for Saturday but for the season.

Now if we go down there and look like Ned in the first reader and they roll up 45 points on us, then I'll eat my words.  But I'm on the record as saying that they aren't ready for conference play or even for the last placed team in the SEC West.

[Fayettechill14]

If you struggle against FCS teams even in wins you will most likely struggle against FBS teams. Revelutionary thinking.

That wasn't the point. Most 6-6 teams can beat an FCS opponent by 45. Fornelli was saying that the difference was more stark with Bielema: his worse teams struggled with FCS foes even more than you would expect (see: Samford) while his better teams would obliterate them with an eye-popping score.

[Doug]

The one thing I've liked about Bielema (and this is off topic, somewhat, sorry...) is the fact that there were NO reports nor arrests of any Hogs CFB player this past offseason. I think only one other SEC school can claim that distinction...

Bielema strikes me as a Player's Coach, while still maintaining a *very* tight grip on off-field behaviors.... something we haven't seen in a *very* long time.

[LZH]

The one thing I've liked about Bielema (and this is off topic, somewhat, sorry...) is the fact that there were NO reports nor arrests of any Hogs CFB player this past offseason. I think only one other SEC school can claim that distinction...

Bielema strikes me as a Player's Coach, while still maintaining a *very* tight grip on off-field behaviors.... something we haven't seen in a *very* long time.

If he could just stay off twitter while taking us to a bowl game I'll kiss him right on the mouth, which I'm certain he would enjoy greatly.

[870hogfan]

If he could just stay off twitter while taking us to a bowl game I'll kiss him right on the mouth, which I'm certain he would enjoy greatly.

The only thing he post on Twitter now is Razorback news and how the student athletes are doing on and off the field.

[WBC Hog]

It was too cold, just too cold

Yes it was!!!

If your success is dependent on smashing the football, your going to destroy weaker opponents. There just isn't much the opposing team can do when they are being pushed 5 yards down field. There is no defensive adjustment once putting 9 in the box doesn't work to slow that kind of team down. There also becomes virtually no risk of losing those games. It's what I call shrinking your schedule. Hopefully we will easily push around our non conference schedule this year which leaves us with an 8 game season. After this year I'd like to be pushing around ole miss, Missouri, and MSU. This leaves us with a 5 game season possibly 4 depending on who our East opponent is. This is how you stack recruiting classes and win a championship at Arkansas.

I've never really thought of it that way. Putting it that way though makes me like our style even better.

The one thing I've liked about Bielema (and this is off topic, somewhat, sorry...) is the fact that there were NO reports nor arrests of any Hogs CFB player this past offseason.

[LZH]

The only thing he post on Twitter now is Razorback news and how the student athletes are doing on and off the field.

Excellent.

See?  It's working already.

[dj shanon "Notshavin" smeya]

The one thing I've liked about Bielema (and this is off topic, somewhat, sorry...) is the fact that there were NO reports nor arrests of any Hogs CFB player this past offseason. I think only one other SEC school can claim that distinction...

Bielema strikes me as a Player's Coach, while still maintaining a *very* tight grip on off-field behaviors.... something we haven't seen in a *very* long time.

Which leads to good preparation, which is key to going on the road.

If our guys our ready to go and know where they are supposed to be at all times, we should win big.

I agree, I like what I've seen so far as far as preparation, discipline and primarily not kissing up to the GOBN.


GO HOGS!

[ZERO]

The one thing I've liked about Bielema (and this is off topic, somewhat, sorry...) is the fact that there were NO reports nor arrests of any Hogs CFB player this past offseason. I think only one other SEC school can claim that distinction...

Bielema strikes me as a Player's Coach, while still maintaining a *very* tight grip on off-field behaviors.... something we haven't seen in a *very* long time.

I remember Florida had no arrests for quite some time. I'm not sure if they made it to September, however.

[cosmodrum]

The one thing I've liked about Bielema (and this is off topic, somewhat, sorry...) is the fact that there were NO reports nor arrests of any Hogs CFB player this past offseason. I think only one other SEC school can claim that distinction...

Bielema strikes me as a Player's Coach, while still maintaining a *very* tight grip on off-field behaviors.... something we haven't seen in a *very* long time.

It's clear the players have bought in.

[ZERO]

FYI, had the Hogs not scored like they did... they would've looked like South Carolina or Kentucky.

Alabama (41)   FAU (0)
Arkansas (73)   Nicholls State (7)
Auburn (59)   San Jose State (13)
Florida (65)   Eastern Michigan (0)
Kentucky (20)   Ohio (3)
LSU (56)   Sam Houston State (0)
Mississippi State (47)   UAB (34)
South Carolina (33)   East Carolina (23)
Tennessee (34)   Arkansas State (19)
Texas AM (73)   Lamar (3)
Toledo (24)   Missouri (49)
Vanderbilt (3)   Ole Miss (41)

To be fair to Kentucky, Ohio isn't all THAT weak of an opponent, given their conference, and Kentucky is coming off a 2-10 season. 20-3 is a pretty dominant performance. In the past five seasons, Ohio has a 10-win and two 9-win seasons.

[redeye]

Guys I'm doing all I can to not get too overconfident about this one.  I'm a little worried about the back 7 but can't imagine them stopping us.  I really hope we put the rest of college football on notice that we will no longer be a doormat.

I think the relevancy of this game has been blown out of proportion a little.  Losing to Tech would be a really bad sign, but beating them won't guarantee any conference wins.  I think it's a game we should win, but we'll be a SEC doormat until we win a conference game (I don't think we've ever been a FBS doormat.)

The one thing I've liked about Bielema (and this is off topic, somewhat, sorry...) is the fact that there were NO reports nor arrests of any Hogs CFB player this past offseason. I think only one other SEC school can claim that distinction...

Bielema strikes me as a Player's Coach, while still maintaining a *very* tight grip on off-field behaviors.... something we haven't seen in a *very* long time.

Yea, that's huge.

[ZERO]

Losing to Tech would be a really bad sign, but beating them won't guarantee any conference wins.

It'll just be hard to convince anyone we've had any improvement over the past two years if we lose to Tech. If we can't beat Tech, then there are obviously not six more winnable games on the schedule. It's just too early in football season to feel as hopeless as we will if we drop this game.

[ChitownHawg]

That is interesting, but I have a hard to buying it, because Nicholls State was just so bad.  I'm not trying to slight a nice win for us, but I think if we had handed the ball to the Nicholls State NG, and told him to turn around and run, that he would have scored a TD for us.

I've noted previously that I don't recall such a dominant win by Arkansas in 40 years, but I don't recall such a pitiful performance by an opponent, either.

Those two usually go together. Hard to have a dominating performance against a dominating opponent. 

[ChitownHawg]

What did she expect them to do?  When you get the ball all the way to the end zone on the first play from scrimmage, it's not like you can stop and just fall down short of the end zone.

I forgot which coach I heard say this years ago, but when he was confronted with the question of running up the score. He basically said "What am I to do? Tell the 3rd string guy, who has practiced just as hard as anyone and has family in the stands, to not play his best?"

The last few years Bama has been racking up 50 on us has never made me angry at Bama. It is not up to them to help us field a quality team. That is our job.

Some people never get that and with kids growing up in little leagues that don't keep score this "fair" attitude will probably grow.

[GolfnHog]

I'm damn-near about to talk myself into thinking BB might be onto something.....close anyway.  I've re-watched parts of both of our games and have seen parts of both of Tech's games and I'm convinced that if the eye test is any indication, we're gonna rough Tech up pretty good.  I certainly feel alot better than I did this time last week.

I told ya'll I'd keep my options open about BB, and that if we go down there and beat the living crap out of them then I'll start singing a little different tune. 

LZH,  Brother I hope you get to start warming up those pipes!!

[ifghog]

It was too cold, just too cold

Yes it was, yes it was.....I still don't think I have warmed up from that game.

[Biggus Piggus]

That is interesting, but I have a hard to buying it, because Nicholls State was just so bad.  I'm not trying to slight a nice win for us, but I think if we had handed the ball to the Nicholls State NG, and told him to turn around and run, that he would have scored a TD for us.

I've noted previously that I don't recall such a dominant win by Arkansas in 40 years, but I don't recall such a pitiful performance by an opponent, either.

Yeah I am open to the possibility that Nicholls was so horrible that the game result is misleading.

There's no substitute for success in a football game, though. Can practice it 1,000x, doesn't do the same amount of good.

At the same time, can you remember 2006? Arkansas's offense was pretty awful for the first four games. Then the Hogs went to Auburn and beat a top 5 opponent soundly, with a great deal of credit due to the creativity of the offensive game plan.

It's entirely plausible that Texas Tech could be vastly better on offense this week + the first two performances are misleading. I very much doubt, though, that their defense is going to be much better.

[MJ2]

Tech- 34
Hogs - 31

[Craig O Squeal]

Yes it was, yes it was.....I still don't think I have warmed up from that game.

BUT! We had Eddie "Frigging" Money t halftime! Every time his music comes on the radio, my wife still shivers.

[Locutus_of_Boar]

Like clockwork, Bielema's best teams ran up insane scores on weaker opponents. When his team wasn't as good, those games tended to be lower scoring.

Or more simply put Bielema doesn't tend toward sandbagging future opponents when playing lesser ones.  He wants you to see (most of) what is coming.

When one is trying to instil confidence in his own team, fear in the opponent, and respect from the world that is the way to do it.

[1highhog]

There was a girl at work that was complaining about the way Bielema ran up the score. I told her she better develop thicker skin b/c it's not going to be the first time. If your success is dependent on smashing the football, your going to destroy weaker opponents. There just isn't much the opposing team can do when they are being pushed 5 yards down field. There is no defensive adjustment once putting 9 in the box doesn't work to slow that kind of team down. There also becomes virtually no risk of losing those games. It's what I call shrinking your schedule. Hopefully we will easily push around our non conference schedule this year which leaves us with an 8 game season. After this year I'd like to be pushing around ole miss, Missouri, and MSU. This leaves us with a 5 game season possibly 4 depending on who our East opponent is. This is how you stack recruiting classes and win a championship at Arkansas.

Yep, CBB is not going to be the kind that just sits on a lead.  He used every possible player he could against Nicholl St and still we scored, we could have easily have hung a 100 on them.  With the game getting out of hand by the end of the 1st quarter, you would have heard more whining from our own fanbase than from anyone Nationally if we would have came out passing more.  And we really needed some work on passing.  But CBB wasn't running up the score by any means, he was playing 3rd stringers in some areas already by the end of the 1st quarter.  You need to tell that girl over the next few years when a rent to win game comes in here, she better not watch the game, or go to the game, because it's going to get ugly.

[Birminghog]

About 20 or so years ago, I worked at an FCS school that was beaten 55-7 by an SEC School. Our head coach said, "It's not their job not to score. It's our job to stop them." I liked that attitude then, and I like it now.