Take The Hogs

[zxbeer]

Take Arkansas (+19) over Auburn (4 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 30)
Auburn has been in this situation before, coming off a highly-successful season only to be a big favorite the first week of the next year. This Arkansas team is better than they were last year, and this is conference game that they do not want to get blow out in. Yes, Auburn is considerably better than the Razorbacks, but this game will be closer than people think. Arkansas is 3-1 ATS in their last four road games versus Auburn, and I see that getting to 4-1 after Saturday. The Tigers have won their last three opening home games by a total of just 14 points. This team takes a little bit of time getting the engines fired up, which is perfect for the Razorback backers. It has been almost a month since Nick Marshall got himself into trouble for marijuana possession, but it will still be on his mind this weekend. Regardless of how much playing time he gets, the Arkansas Razorbacks will keep this game to two-touchdowns. Take the points here as the road dog will have bite on this opening weekend.

[nchogg]

It's really hard to say. Gus knows how to exploit both the offense and defense. He played Alabama knowing their kicker was not consistent and luck went his way on the final play. Auburn had many things go their way the whole season. Gus also is good at putting the pressure on in the late 3rd and 4th quarter. Our defense needs to keep pressure on their offense. You can't take a play off. I feel our defense will do their part. If we can keep Auburn's scoring low we have a chance to win. The ball needs to bounce our way for this game, the ball seems to love to bounce Auburn's way. If our offense is is pressuring Auby's defense we may see another delayed injury on their defense again. Who knows. I am  excited about watching the game saturday. I want to see Coach Chaney's playing with a healthy Brandon and with players that understand and know his plays. I am very interested in our revamped defensive staff and want to see the product on the field. Go Hogs, Beat Auburn!

[MultipleScoreGasms]

I expect our defense to be better, but I think the best defensive strategy we can have is to keep their offense off the field.  Our O-Line and BA are going to have to set this one up for us.  Auburn will load the box, so BA is going to have to hit on mid-range passing plays to back them out.  If he can, and they have to defend against a big play, our O-line and running game will get a chance to get rolling.  If that happens, we can keep their offense cold and out of time, and perhaps slow them down enough to take it.

[jkstock04]

Take Arkansas (+19) over Auburn (4 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 30)
Auburn has been in this situation before, coming off a highly-successful season only to be a big favorite the first week of the next year. This Arkansas team is better than they were last year, and this is conference game that they do not want to get blow out in. Yes, Auburn is considerably better than the Razorbacks, but this game will be closer than people think. Arkansas is 3-1 ATS in their last four road games versus Auburn, and I see that getting to 4-1 after Saturday. The Tigers have won their last three opening home games by a total of just 14 points. This team takes a little bit of time getting the engines fired up, which is perfect for the Razorback backers. It has been almost a month since Nick Marshall got himself into trouble for marijuana possession, but it will still be on his mind this weekend. Regardless of how much playing time he gets, the Arkansas Razorbacks will keep this game to two-touchdowns. Take the points here as the road dog will have bite on this opening weekend.

I am for sure a sports gambler, and betting the Hogs here has red flag written all over it. We have more question marks on our team than most.

I had a guy yesterday guaranteeing me the Hogs were going to win this game...much like most on this message board. I told him I would wager a 1000 dollars on us to just to cover the spread...win and I would split the profits with him....but lose and he reimburses me. Of course he tucked tail and ran at this proposal. Lol guaranteed the win....but "put your money where your mouth is" and he wilted. Just to cover the spread...not to win mind you.

[Iwastherein1969]

KOD..."kiss of death" thread...I've grown way too cynical since I've hit the big 50 a couple of years ago...its like I don't think the Hogs will ever get a break again....when I was growing up we used to win a big game every now and then....these days, well, you guys know the rest of the story....but GO HOGS !   #1-0

[Choctaw Hog]

we will be lucky to cover the spread
I think it should be more than -19

Then you should bet everything you have and everything you can borrow.

[jkstock04]

Then you should bet everything you have and everything you can borrow.

So should everyone else on the board with all these guarantees we have read over the past week. Hell I want one of these people to back me 100% and reimburse me but nobody will take me up on it. Weird huh?

[M L (bassplayer)]

Everyone keeps saying Arkansas is better. How? Please explain. Is it our greatly improved talent at linebacker? Secondary? Did we recruit some stud QB that's gonna come in and throw darts? Did we get a kicker that will be as good as or better than Hocker? Did we get an offensive coordinator that runs the style of offense that our head coach wants to run? Do we have quality depth on the lines? One of our starting tight ends was a freaking quarterback last year. Do we have a ferocious home crowd that will help us win games? Or do we have a bunch of blue hairs that enjoy watching Petit Jean frickin ham commercials? Is our student attendance so poor that they had to hire a DJ and put him on top of the stadium to create a party atmosphere? Won't winning games fix that?   Is our receivers better than anyone else's in the conference? Do we not have a fantastic stadium that we insist on leaving and losing millions of dollars of revenue to go play a game in the #1 most dangerous mid sized city in America only to have 15,000 empty seats.

How is Arkansas going to be better?

How are we better? Please explain.

More time with the system and the coaches (like Shannon), more time in the weight room. Three quality running backs, a growing stable of lineman, dangerous tightends, better linebackers.
We are building something from the ground up and it may take some time but we might surprise some teams this year. You watched SoCar last night. Sometimes the teams that are supposed to be so good haven't worked things out yet. AnM's defense wasn't that good last year, so were they better or was Carolina just unable to move the ball? Time will tell.

[Hogswarts]

Everyone keeps saying Arkansas is better. How? Please explain. Is it our greatly improved talent at linebacker? Secondary? Did we recruit some stud QB that's gonna come in and throw darts? Did we get a kicker that will be as good as or better than Hocker? Did we get an offensive coordinator that runs the style of offense that our head coach wants to run? Do we have quality depth on the lines? One of our starting tight ends was a freaking quarterback last year. Do we have a ferocious home crowd that will help us win games? Or do we have a bunch of blue hairs that enjoy watching Petit Jean frickin ham commercials? Is our student attendance so poor that they had to hire a DJ and put him on top of the stadium to create a party atmosphere? Won't winning games fix that?   Is our receivers better than anyone else's in the conference? Do we not have a fantastic stadium that we insist on leaving and losing millions of dollars of revenue to go play a game in the #1 most dangerous mid sized city in America only to have 15,000 empty seats.

How is Arkansas going to be better?

How are we better? Please explain.

.           




Wow, you really got a lot going on in that rant.

[IntegrityHog]

Everyone keeps saying Arkansas is better. How? Please explain. Is it our greatly improved talent at linebacker? Secondary? Did we recruit some stud QB that's gonna come in and throw darts? Did we get a kicker that will be as good as or better than Hocker? Did we get an offensive coordinator that runs the style of offense that our head coach wants to run? Do we have quality depth on the lines? One of our starting tight ends was a freaking quarterback last year. Do we have a ferocious home crowd that will help us win games? Or do we have a bunch of blue hairs that enjoy watching Petit Jean frickin ham commercials? Is our student attendance so poor that they had to hire a DJ and put him on top of the stadium to create a party atmosphere? Won't winning games fix that?   Is our receivers better than anyone else's in the conference? Do we not have a fantastic stadium that we insist on leaving and losing millions of dollars of revenue to go play a game in the #1 most dangerous mid sized city in America only to have 15,000 empty seats.

How is Arkansas going to be better?

How are we better? Please explain.

So much wrong with this post, but by far the worst part was dissin' Petit Jean.  I'd like to see you make a better ham!!!!

[Kevin]

Everyone keeps saying Arkansas is better. How? Please explain. Is it our greatly improved talent at linebacker? Secondary? Did we recruit some stud QB that's gonna come in and throw darts? Did we get a kicker that will be as good as or better than Hocker? Did we get an offensive coordinator that runs the style of offense that our head coach wants to run? Do we have quality depth on the lines? One of our starting tight ends was a freaking quarterback last year. Do we have a ferocious home crowd that will help us win games? Or do we have a bunch of blue hairs that enjoy watching Petit Jean frickin ham commercials? Is our student attendance so poor that they had to hire a DJ and put him on top of the stadium to create a party atmosphere? Won't winning games fix that?   Is our receivers better than anyone else's in the conference? Do we not have a fantastic stadium that we insist on leaving and losing millions of dollars of revenue to go play a game in the #1 most dangerous mid sized city in America only to have 15,000 empty seats.

How is Arkansas going to be better?

How are we better? Please explain.

You do bring up some good points when talking about the team

[popcornhog]

Everyone keeps saying Arkansas is better. How? Please explain. Is it our greatly improved talent at linebacker? Secondary? Did we recruit some stud QB that's gonna come in and throw darts? Did we get a kicker that will be as good as or better than Hocker? Did we get an offensive coordinator that runs the style of offense that our head coach wants to run? Do we have quality depth on the lines?

We've got more depth at CB.

Linebackers are gonna be horrible.

Brandon Allen should be upgraded from horrible to mediocre by virtue of the fact that he is healthy and experienced. QB's typically show the most improvement between their first year of starting and second.

OLine should be among the top few in the conference by all accounts.

We have a top 3 RB core in the conference, including a guy that was all SEC frosh last year -- again year one-to-year two improvement is typically big.

You mentioned the TE's. We're returning a guy who was the best freshman TE in the conference last year.

WR should be weak.

DL has some question marks but Flowers is among the best in the business.

K is somewhat unknown.

KM should be exciting at kick return. He may also return punts.

We're not going to light the world on fire but we should be improved enough to make a run at 6 wins.

And finally the players have been in the system for a year plus.

We're not going to compete for the division or anything like that, though.

[hawgon]

We may be much better, but the point the guy is making is that right now there is no empirical evidence of it, yet everyone on this board is talking as if it is a given.  Sure we SHOULD be better, but ARE we?  No one knows at this point.  Everything right now is wishful thinking.  Maybe the wishful thinkers are right, maybe they're wrong. 

Some of the answers will come tomorrow. 

[Dumb ole famrboy]

Those in early on Arkansas have a good play here. 3 pt move is significant. Lay the bet off with Auburn (-19).

[bphi11ips]

I am for sure a sports gambler, and betting the Hogs here has red flag written all over it. We have more question marks on our team than most.

I had a guy yesterday guaranteeing me the Hogs were going to win this game...much like most on this message board. I told him I would wager a 1000 dollars on us to just to cover the spread...win and I would split the profits with him....but lose and he reimburses me. Of course he tucked tail and ran at this proposal. Lol guaranteed the win....but "put your money where your mouth is" and he wilted. Just to cover the spread...not to win mind you.

Hmmmm.  Let's break this down.  You want him to cover the bet if you lose, and you'll split the winnings if the Hogs cover.  Where is your risk in that?  Sounds like your guy knows a sucker bet when he sees one.

When you bet $1000, how much do you expect to collect if you win?

[onebadrubi]

Was much more enticing at -21.5 -110.  The over is drawing a little action as well

[Biggus Piggus]

Everyone keeps saying Arkansas is better. How? Please explain. Is it our greatly improved talent at linebacker? Secondary? Did we recruit some stud QB that's gonna come in and throw darts? Did we get a kicker that will be as good as or better than Hocker? Did we get an offensive coordinator that runs the style of offense that our head coach wants to run? Do we have quality depth on the lines? One of our starting tight ends was a freaking quarterback last year. Do we have a ferocious home crowd that will help us win games? Or do we have a bunch of blue hairs that enjoy watching Petit Jean frickin ham commercials? Is our student attendance so poor that they had to hire a DJ and put him on top of the stadium to create a party atmosphere? Won't winning games fix that?   Is our receivers better than anyone else's in the conference? Do we not have a fantastic stadium that we insist on leaving and losing millions of dollars of revenue to go play a game in the #1 most dangerous mid sized city in America only to have 15,000 empty seats.

How is Arkansas going to be better?

How are we better? Please explain.

Wow. You twisted a bunch of things into negatives. We have been discussing this subject on this board for months. Your willingness to ignore all the answers to all your questions is unappreciated.

[Biggus Piggus]

Linebackers are gonna be horrible.

Brandon Allen should be upgraded from horrible to mediocre

WR should be weak.

Expect you've underrated each of these.

[onebadrubi]

Hmmmm.  Let's break this down.  You want him to cover the bet if you lose, and you'll split the winnings if the Hogs cover.  Where is your risk in that?  Sounds like your guy knows a sucker bet when he sees one.

When you bet $1000, how much do you expect to collect if you win?

He's betting 1000 that the hogs cover, meaning don't lose by more than X.  I see his purpose of the bet.  That guy was so confident they would win the guy would make an easy $500 should they win like he believes.  If the lose by 10 then he wouldn't be out a dime, if they get blown out, the extremely homer confident guy has to step up and pony up

[LRRandy]

Wow. You twisted a bunch of things into negatives. We have been discussing this subject on this board for months. Your willingness to ignore all the answers to all your questions is unappreciated.

not answers. Opinions......of fans. Maybe even more like wishes than opinions. We will all see the answers tomorrow. Wether you like them or not. I will submit that the answers that you see tomorrow won't all line up with the answers that have been discussed on this board for months.

[bphi11ips]

He's betting 1000 that the hogs cover, meaning don't lose by more than X.  I see his purpose of the bet.  That guy was so confident they would win the guy would make an easy $500 should they win like he believes.  If the lose by 10 then he wouldn't be out a dime, if they get blown out, the extremely homer confident guy has to step up and pony up

You missed the point.  You asked the guy to risk $1000 to win $500, and you had no risk at all.  It's like this - heads he wins $500.  Tails he loses $1000.  All you had was a $500 upside.

Here's another way of looking at it.  Why didn't you just offer to bet him $1000 the Hogs won't cover?   

[onebadrubi]

You missed the point.  You asked the guy to risk $1000 to win $500, and you had no risk at all.  It's like this - heads he wins $500.  Tails he loses $1000.  All you had was a $500 upside.

Here's another way of looking at it.  Why didn't you just offer to bet him $1000 the Hogs won't cover?   

I read it as a good deal for the confident fella.  If he's right he wins 1000, if he's 21 point marginally wrong, he wins 500, if hes 22 points wrong, he loses 1000. 

[jkstock04]

Hmmmm.  Let's break this down.  You want him to cover the bet if you lose, and you'll split the winnings if the Hogs cover.  Where is your risk in that?  Sounds like your guy knows a sucker bet when he sees one.

When you bet $1000, how much do you expect to collect if you win?

$1000 bet with the juice considered will typically pay $909 profit. My overall point is if it is an easy guaranteed win like many claim why not?

I'm the one who has to worry about taxes (cause I would pay him in cash) and not to mention technically gambling is illegal. I'm taking all the risks. Nobody wants to do it because these type of people shoot off at the mouth but never back it up. These are the type of people who don't think much before they speak.

[bphi11ips]

I read it as a good deal for the confident fella.  If he's right he wins 1000, if he's 21 point marginally wrong, he wins 500, if hes 22 points wrong, he loses 1000. 

jk's post is ambiguous, but I don't see any scenario under which the confident fella wins $1,000.  The best he can do is $500, and it's not clear to me whether jk means "win the game and I'll split profits" or "win the bet and I'll split profits".  Likewise, it's not clear whether he means "lose the game and you owe me $1000" or "Hogs fail to cover and you owe me $1000".  With respect to the latter, jk would only lose himself if the Hogs fail to cover, so that is the only interpretation that makes sense there. 

[bphi11ips]

$1000 bet with the juice considered will typically pay $909 profit. My overall point is if it is an easy guaranteed win like many claim why not?

I'm the one who has to worry about taxes (cause I would pay him in cash) and not to mention technically gambling is illegal. I'm taking all the risks. Nobody wants to do it because these type of people shoot off at the mouth but never back it up. These are the type of people who don't think much before they speak.

Where is your risk?   Taxes are taxes.  The confident fella pays his own taxes. 

If you lose he covers the bet. 

What am I missing here? 

[itshogsbaby]

I am for sure a sports gambler, and betting the Hogs here has red flag written all over it. We have more question marks on our team than most.

I had a guy yesterday guaranteeing me the Hogs were going to win this game...much like most on this message board. I told him I would wager a 1000 dollars on us to just to cover the spread...win and I would split the profits with him....but lose and he reimburses me. Of course he tucked tail and ran at this proposal. Lol guaranteed the win....but "put your money where your mouth is" and he wilted. Just to cover the spread...not to win mind you.

Essentially, he is betting $1000 to win $500.  It would make sense he didn't take this deal. 

EDIT:  I posted this before reading the rest of the thread. LOTS of guys caught onto this one!

[bphi11ips]

Essentially, he is betting $1000 to win $500.  It would make sense he didn't take this deal. 

Sounds like jk has mastered the OPM principle. 

[jkstock04]

Where is your risk?   Taxes are taxes.  The confident fella pays his own taxes. 

If you lose he covers the bet. 

What am I missing here? 

Gambling = illegal
I have to pay taxes on it...I would pay him in cash so he can scoot around it.

Plus doesn't have to screw with betting and collecting and all that BS. All he has to do is collect the cash from me personally that same day. I'm doing all the work and taking all the risks.

And why not?!! It's a guaranteed win right? Easy money. Lol but hey, y'all keep spin in away at this. Point is nothing in gambling is guaranteed, and that's why he wouldn't do it.

[Jek Tono Porkins]

Is our receivers better than anyone else's in the conference?

Is our receivers better than anyone else's in the conference? Dids youse goes to kollege and get ur book-lernin on?