Intelligent, honest SEC fans - hit me!

[ArkansasI]

While I agree that Auburn benefits from playing at home, I also believe the Hogs benefit from being on the road.

I believe this to be a focus thingy for us.

[arkfan81]

While I agree that Auburn benefits from playing at home, I also believe the Hogs benefit from being on the road.

I believe this to be a focus thingy for us.

I think there's more pressure on the Tigers then our Hogs. Being at home, ranked 6th, and having the "streak" of losing. How would the city of Auburn handle getting beat by the Hogs ?

[Qhog]

Officials cost us two TDs pretty directly during $CAM Newton title run.  Don't underestimate them on this road tilt. 

It's not fair to put some much on his shoulders, but so much depends on how Brandon Allen looks this year. 

[JIHawg]

This from an Auburn guy who talks to one of their coaches:  They feel they have the best two receivers in the league with the addition of the #1 junior college transfer in the country.  They have really worked with their quarterback to make him a passer, and have put a lot of emphasis on improving their passing game.

They have two new running backs who are very fast and looking good.  They think they will replace the senior starters by the third game, maybe sooner.

They think, overall, they will be much better than last year.

[RollHogTide]

Alabama Crimson Tide -

This year will be the first year in the last four years that I don't have an inside source that actually worked with the team. But, without being a homer - here goes.

Offense:

Running Backs - While it would be unpopular to most Bama fans, I hope that Yeldon's role is reduced this year and Henry and Drake (if he can stay out of the doghouse) get more than their fair share of carries.  I like Yeldon; however, he seems to have a problem turning the ball over in critical situations.  If I could divide the running plays between those three - Yeldon (30%), Henry (40%), Drake (29%) - the remaining 1% divided between the other backs. 

Fullback/H-back - if Fowler stays healthy, he's like a bowling ball (btw - he's one of my favorite players) - I feel VERY, VERY good about his ability to execute.

QB - While I am not particularly worried about this critical position IF the Tide is able to control the game on defense; however, if we are forced to play catch-up or the game is close and we are trying to run the clock out - that could be a serious concern.  While most fans believed that Coker was the answer, it appears (based on rumors) that the players are more comfortable with Sims.  Personally, I would like to see Bateman get significant playing time.

Offensive Line - My heart tells me that we should be OK, but my brain tells me to be concerned.  Last years offensive line wasn't that good (in my opinion - they appeared lethargic and lazy at times - perhaps a better answer might be entitled and attempting to save themselves for the NFL) and this year's group appears to not be any better.  I don't know why we appear at times to struggle in that area considering the number of players that have been drafted by the NFL.

TE/Receivers - Locked, cocked, and ready to rock.  Perhaps the best corps of receivers that Bama has had (top to bottom).  There have been some very good individual receivers in recent years, but as a group - these are best collectively.

Defense:

Backs and Safeties - TODAY they may not as good as a couple of years ago, but they should be the strength of the defense and a much BETTER unit than last year.  IF they do not suffer injuries, they  may be the best collection of defensive backs Saban has had since he's been at Bama.  The parts are interchangeable and size and speed is incredible.

Linebackers - In the last few years we've really taken a beating due to early departures to the NFL and with Mosley leaving this year (he was the heart and soul of the team last year), I have some concerns.  DePriest (assuming he can come back from his suspension) will certainly be the best of the group.  I don't know if Foster is ready to take on the responsibilities that comes with the position; however, Dickson is very good.

Defensive Line - I've heard good things about them, they are returning a lot of players with significant playing time - but, I believe the jury is still out of them as a group.

Special Teams - SOLID.

I think our #2 ranking is too high, and would prefer for it to be lower.  While outwardly our fan base would say that we are excited about Kiffin being the OC, the reality is we are concerned about the possibility of stupidity stepping in a costing us a game that we should win.  I think we could go undefeated based on our schedule or possibly lose 2-3 regular season games.  Every year I predict our record to be 10-2 regular season.  That's my prediction again.

[MountieDawg]

I'm sorry but I have to address this point because it kills me.

Alabama had their second-string kicker attempt a 57 yard field goal.

If you don't have enough sense to put a returner on that attempt, you don't have any business being a football coach at any level.

Every single Division I coach would have done the exact same thing.

If you believe that then you have to think Saban is an idiot to put 9 offensive lineman on the field for the FG attempt and not thinking about the return. He must be dumber than every other coach in college football, I DONT think so.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

If you believe that then you have to think Saban is an idiot to put 9 offensive lineman on the field for the FG attempt and not thinking about the return. He must be dumber than every other coach in college football, I DONT think so.

I have to admit that I never understood why Saban overlooked having his players fan out and cover that attempted FG. That's pretty much standard stuff especially for FG's that are that long. No excuses can be made, that was a mistake on the part of Saban or someone on his staff prior to the snap. Hat's off to Auburn for being prepared, but Alabama just screwed up.

[HyperDrive]

I am looking for the last honest SEC fans. All I want to see on this thread: Brutally honest takes on YOUR favorite SEC football team -- and I am only talking to fans of teams other than Arkansas.

We have seen maybe ONE honest fan of an opposing team post on Hogville all summer. Please drop your bluster and tell us the truth as best you can. The truth you talk about with other fans of your team.

If you post more puffery, I'll delete it. Prove to me that you can talk football in an intelligent fashion.

Take Auburn, for example. I cannot tell how good people really believe the team is. Best take I saw suggested that, deep down, you expect to lose several games this season.

As for playing Arkansas, I'll say this to fans of other SEC teams. You had better be good at run defense. You had better be good at safety. You had better be good at pass protection. Cover those, and you're good.

Auburn returns 8 of 11 starters on offense, including Marshall at QB.  They added the #1 JUCO player in the country at WR and have two returning running backs who got significant carries plus 5-star RB Roc Thomas.  Mason was a beast but with the addition of Williams and Marshall having a full year under his belt rather than just a few weeks like last season, I expect a more balanced offense (though still tilted to the run) and little to no overall drop off.

On the defensive side, the loss of Dee Ford and Carl Lawson hurt the pass rush.  That means the DTs are going to have to step it up in terms of disrupting the middle and pushing the pocket in to make up for the loss of outside speed.  I do think the D-line will be improved overall, but whether it's enough to make up for those losses is hard to say.

The back seven should be better.  Pass coverage both in the DBs and the LBs has been an Achilles heel.  I think there will be significant improvement here, but it could be offset by a less effective pass rush.  I think our defensive numbers will take a positive step but it won't be as dramatic as hoped for.

Special teams are a total wildcard.  We lose two of the best kickers in the country and replace them with unknowns.  In a tight game that could cost us.

The schedule is tough.  If the defense improves noticeably, this is still a team that can run the table.  A more realistic assessment probably says two losses.  If a couple of key injuries hit, it could be three.  Frankly, anything more than 2 losses will and should be a disappointment for Auburn fans.

[Biggus Piggus]

Auburn fans + football media are banking on the idea that Auburn's offense will come screaming out of the gate because Malzahn has had another year to develop the team.

Everyone appears to be divided on whether the defense will be any good -- but many assume the offense will make up for any issues on defense.

Lastly, everyone assumes Arkansas's defense will be terrible as it was in the past two seasons, and Arkansas's passing game will be nonexistent. Both of those notions are probably wrong, in my estimation.

[Chief Mac]

Lastly, everyone assumes Arkansas's defense will be terrible as it was in the past two seasons, and Arkansas's passing game will be nonexistent. Both of those notions are probably wrong, in my estimation.

here's to hoping Auburn players think this

[HyperDrive]

Auburn fans + football media are banking on the idea that Auburn's offense will come screaming out of the gate because Malzahn has had another year to develop the team.

Everyone appears to be divided on whether the defense will be any good -- but many assume the offense will make up for any issues on defense.

I'd say there's little reason to believe the offense won't be top notch again.  And the offense did make up for issues on defense last season so people think it will probably go about the same this year.  If we get any decent improvement on defense even if it's not massive enough to make it one of the top units in the conference, that only helps things.

Lastly, everyone assumes Arkansas's defense will be terrible as it was in the past two seasons, and Arkansas's passing game will be nonexistent. Both of those notions are probably wrong, in my estimation.

I don't know if your defense will be terrible.  It's a wild card.  I think I read today that your field corner is out for the Auburn game due to a hammy pull.  If Coates and Williams are as dangerous as we think they are, that could hurt.

I think your passing game will be much improved mostly due to Brandon Allen being healthy.  I don't know if it'll be a focal point, but it could open up a few things for you running the ball if he can hit a few key passes when the D is keying on run.  Keep 'em honest.  Really, you need the same thing out of Allen that we need out of Marshall...just enough burning the defense when they crowd the box to make them keep guys in coverage and not clog up all the running lanes.  If he can do that and your line can keep people off of him, he can be effective for you.

[Jackrabbit Hog]

Alabama Crimson Tide -

This year will be the first year in the last four years that I don't have an inside source that actually worked with the team. But, without being a homer - here goes.

Offense:

Running Backs - While it would be unpopular to most Bama fans, I hope that Yeldon's role is reduced this year and Henry and Drake (if he can stay out of the doghouse) get more than their fair share of carries.  I like Yeldon; however, he seems to have a problem turning the ball over in critical situations.  If I could divide the running plays between those three - Yeldon (30%), Henry (40%), Drake (29%) - the remaining 1% divided between the other backs. 

Fullback/H-back - if Fowler stays healthy, he's like a bowling ball (btw - he's one of my favorite players) - I feel VERY, VERY good about his ability to execute.

QB - While I am not particularly worried about this critical position IF the Tide is able to control the game on defense; however, if we are forced to play catch-up or the game is close and we are trying to run the clock out - that could be a serious concern.  While most fans believed that Coker was the answer, it appears (based on rumors) that the players are more comfortable with Sims.  Personally, I would like to see Bateman get significant playing time.

Offensive Line - My heart tells me that we should be OK, but my brain tells me to be concerned.  Last years offensive line wasn't that good (in my opinion - they appeared lethargic and lazy at times - perhaps a better answer might be entitled and attempting to save themselves for the NFL) and this year's group appears to not be any better.  I don't know why we appear at times to struggle in that area considering the number of players that have been drafted by the NFL.

TE/Receivers - Locked, cocked, and ready to rock.  Perhaps the best corps of receivers that Bama has had (top to bottom).  There have been some very good individual receivers in recent years, but as a group - these are best collectively.

Defense:

Backs and Safeties - TODAY they may not as good as a couple of years ago, but they should be the strength of the defense and a much BETTER unit than last year.  IF they do not suffer injuries, they  may be the best collection of defensive backs Saban has had since he's been at Bama.  The parts are interchangeable and size and speed is incredible.

Linebackers - In the last few years we've really taken a beating due to early departures to the NFL and with Mosley leaving this year (he was the heart and soul of the team last year), I have some concerns.  DePriest (assuming he can come back from his suspension) will certainly be the best of the group.  I don't know if Foster is ready to take on the responsibilities that comes with the position; however, Dickson is very good.

Defensive Line - I've heard good things about them, they are returning a lot of players with significant playing time - but, I believe the jury is still out of them as a group.

Special Teams - SOLID.

I think our #2 ranking is too high, and would prefer for it to be lower.  While outwardly our fan base would say that we are excited about Kiffin being the OC, the reality is we are concerned about the possibility of stupidity stepping in a costing us a game that we should win.  I think we could go undefeated based on our schedule or possibly lose 2-3 regular season games.  Every year I predict our record to be 10-2 regular season.  That's my prediction again.

Thanks RHT.  Good to hear from you; hope you're doing well.

[DeltaBoy]

This was written by a barner, so I'm shocked at the objectivity.


5 Reasons Auburn Should Be Worried About Arkansas, Part 3

http://flywareagle.com/2014/08/01/5-reasons-auburn-worried-arkansas-part-3/

A straightforward honest assessment in my book.

[The Hogfather]

I think I read today that your field corner is out for the Auburn game due to a hammy pull.  If Coates and Williams are as dangerous as we think they are, that could hurt.

Mitchel was 3rd on the depth chart, behind Carroll Washington and DJ Dean.

[footballfan2]

I'll chip in with the top worries at Auburn.

Number 1: The biggest risk Auburn is taking. Redshirt freshman Daniel Carlson (recruited by the previous coaching staff) is the new placekicker and punter. Carlson is the only freshmen in NCAA football who is both kicker and punter for his team. Two teams in FBS did this last season. Two years ago, this kid was a converted soccer player kicking for a Class 3A charter school in Colorado. I don't care how physically talented he is. Doing this is a terrific mental and emotional challenge.

Number 2: Pass rush. Auburn had 32 sacks in 14 games last season. The top two sack artists were Dee Ford (NFL) and Carl Lawson (injured). Sophomore end Elijah Daniel (6-2, 263) is expected to be the primary rusher. He had 2.5 sacks last season, 1 in SEC play. This sack issue might be even bigger in the Arkansas game, when the Tigers are essentially going with four defensive tackles up front.

You can't really go by stats. For example, Auburn's scorer was very generous with hurries. He found that the Tigers had 110 hurries (supposedly, forcing the QB to throw too quickly) vs. 25 for the opposition. Let me compare this with Alabama, for example. Their scorer found 44 QB hurries. How about last year's best pass rushing team, Missouri? Only 62 hurries. Auburn claimed they had two reserves with more hurries than Mizzou's top two sack artists. Riiiight.

Number 3: Offensive line. They will probably be good before long, but starting out, Auburn has to deal with a lot of changes. Left tackle Shon Coleman is 22 years old but has never started. He played in seven games last season but did not get to do much pass protection. Coleman is strong and talented; Arkansas might have an edge in his first start, throwing Trey Flowers at him.

As a freshman and sophomore, Patrick Miller started 14 games at right tackle, but he lost that job after five games in 2013 due to an off-field transgression. Before that, Miller was promoted in Auburn's lost 2012 because starter Avery Young got hurt.

This year, Young was moved to RG in a shuffle after veteran Alex Kozan went down with an injury. Young, still a sophomore after a medical redshirt, replaced Miller at RT in 2013 and kept the job for the last nine games. Now the guards are Young and senior Chad Slade, who moved from RG to LG.

Did Miller stand much of a challenge to win the RT position? Auburn lists third-year sophomore Robert Leff as the second teamer. His experience is limited to special teams. More of a long-term prospect.

At best, this line has to get used to a lot of changes.

Number 4: Secondary. The top Auburn DBs in SEC play last season were Ryan Smith (gone), Jermaine Whitehead, Chris Davis (gone), Robenson Therezie (double-secret probation) and Jonathon Mincy (missing as much/little of the Arkansas game as Malzahn can get away with). Starting SS Johnathan Ford is suspect, backed by a juco transfer whose head is swimming right now.

The initial starter at boundary corner is tweener Joshua Holsey, a junior who was in and out of the starting lineup for two seasons. Other side, the cover guy, is junior Jonathan Jones, who missed the first half of last season due to injury and has one career start (as a nickel back). Behind him is a guy converted after three years as a wide receiver.

Last year's secondary was head-and-shoulders above this one. In SEC games, Auburn gave up 60% completion, 274 yards per game, 13 TDs vs. 8 INTs. That's eighth in completion %, mid-pack in TD/INT, 11th in yards allowed per attempt. And that was with a pass rush Auburn doesn't have anymore.

Number 5: Running backs. Auburn in 2013 had two players in the top 15 of SEC-only rushing, Tre Mason and Nick Marshall. One is gone, the other getting his hand slapped in game one. Arkansas had two, Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams. Auburn clearly did not sign anyone good enough to come in and start. This year's starters were bit players in past SEC games. It's possible that the Malzahn Magic will turn two off backs into stars. He made Mason (5-8, 207) look awesome. But at least Mason had been a 1,000-yard rusher in 2012 and a stud kick returner as a freshman. One wonders how soon Malzahn will start fiddling with the running back rotation.

I'm an Auburn fan. Wanted to come over here and see any updates before the game.
before I give my honest opinion about AU, I disagree with a few of your points:

1. I mostly agree with this. Handling the Punting and Kicking is a lot for a true freshman. But word out of camp is that he might potentially be the best kicker AU has had in years
.... I'm waiting to see how he does in front of 90k fans.

2. Actually, Owens will be the go to guy for pass rushing while Lawson is on the sidelines.
Keep an eye on two true freshman that may enter on 3rd & long situations as well (Williams & Thornton) ... both are undersized but blazing off edge. Daniel & Wright will start at DE with Owens rotating in on passing situations for the most part.

3. Kozan isn't a veteran guy. He was a Redshirt Freshman last year and he was good (Not dominating). He did get "Freshman All SEC" but you know, they're probably wasn't many Freshman Guards in the SEC.  As you pointed out both Miller & Young have starting experience (a lot of it) but Young is more versatile, so he takes over at Guard.
Coaches are extremely high (dare I say higher than Robinson) on Coleman. Coleman was ranked higher coming out of High School than Greg Robinson. SC battled and overcame cancer and now has his strength back after losing about 30 lbs 2 years ago.
Dismukes is up for the Remmington Award again at Center. 
Not only does Auburn feel good about our OL ... We have a few stud backups that we're excited about. Braden Smith (#1 G in the country out of HS last year) will be a utility guy. T or G. He's the strongest guy on the team as a true freshman. Also a couple of JUCO OL that were #1 in the nation at their respective positions.

4. DBs - Let's be honest. Davis was known more for his special teams than cover skills.
replaced by Jones who is faster ... we'll have to see about his ball skills.
Mincy will be out no later than the 1st half. Return Sr. Whitehead at FS.

I disagree that Moncrief's (#1 JUCO S) head is spinning. Ellis Johnson actually commented on how well he had picked up the defense early in fall camp. Ford is a better athlete (I think he had a 100 yard rushing game at RB as a true freshman). I think it says more about Ford's ability than anything about Moncrief. Holsey was not "in and out" of the starting rotation last year. He was the STARTER then got hurt. He's healthy now. DBs overall should be better due to (in my opinion) Ford & Moncrief being an upgrade over Ryan Smith at Boundary Safety.

5. Auburn is not worried about their running game. They've actually recruited as well here as they ever have (even for AU's reputation at RB) with #1 JUCO RB Cam Artis-Payne and 5*Roc Thomas who is 3rd string right now behind the 2 Sr.s

Auburn Leading Rusher by year

2013 Tre Mason- Heisman finalist, 3rd round draft pick

2012 Tre Mason- Heisman finalist, 3rd round draft pick

2011 Michael Dyer- National Championship MVP, All SEC 1st team, 2300 rush yards in 2 years at Auburn. Not in NFL yet.

2010 Cam Newton- Heisman trophy winner 1st overall NFL selection, pro bowler (second leading rusher= Michael Dyer)

2009 Ben Tate- Drafted 3rd round NFL draft, ~2000 NFL rushing yards (so far) All SEC 2nd team- 3300 yards at auburn

2008 Ben Tate- Drafted 3rd round NFL draft, ~2000 NFL rushing yards (so far) All SEC 2nd team- 3300 yards at auburn

2007 Ben Tate- Drafted 3rd round NFL draft, ~2000 NFL rushing yards (so far) All SEC 2nd team- 3300 yards at auburn

2006 Kenny Irons- Drafted 2nd round NFL draft. (Career ending injury in 2nd preseason game) 2x All SEC 1st team,

2005 Kenny Irons- Drafted 2nd round NFL draft. (Career ending injury in 2nd preseason game) 2x All SEC 1st team,

2004 Cadillac Williams, 5th overall pick NFL draft, AP NFL rookie of the year (Career cut short due to injury)

2003 Cadillac Williams, 5th overall pick NFL draft, AP NFL rookie of the year (Career cut short due to injury)

2002 Ronnie Brown, 2nd overall pick NFL draft, NFL Pro-bowler, 7,200+ NFL all purpose yards to date

2001 Cadillac Williams, 5th overall pick NFL draft, AP NFL rookie of the year (Career cut short due to injury)

2000 Rudi Johnson, 4th round draft pick, Pro-bowler, Cincinatti Bengals single season rushing record (1,458), SEC Player of the Year

1999 Heath Evans 3rd round draft pick, Super Bowl XVLI Champion, 9 year NFL career



My concerns?:

Both teams are better this year. Arky will be improved and I think AU will win by larger margins this year.

The weather is making me a little nervous. Both teams are running teams but checkthis out ...
AU relies heavily on their base play in which they can run 4 plays out of.
You have the speed sweep motion (QB either gives or fakes), then the dive (Give or fake), QB run option or play action pass.

AU's field does have a good drainage system. We played WVU a few years back in a monsoon and you couldn't even tell the field was wet.
But, if it is sloshy, you can forget about the speed sweeps. Arky coaches will know this and focus more on between the tackles than the speed sweeps.

[footballfan2]

I didn't really go into detail about what I think about Auburn:

I think we'll be better in some areas. Better overall on the DL (But not better a WDE where Lawson is out for half the season)

Definitely better at LB

Better in the secondary too.

Still not one of the best Defenses in the nation ... just improved.

Big losses from last year were Ford (Who Lawson would replace/injured) on Defense.
MLB Jake Holland wasn't Auburn fans' favorite player ... he rotated with Frost who looks vastly improved. Lose Davis at CB ... we'll miss him more on punt/kick returns than as a CB.

Offense .... biggest loss??? Greg Robinson? Nope ... Shon Coleman is expected to fill that void nicely .... I say the biggest loss is Fullback Jay Prosch. Prosch was an animal last year ... the best FB in college football now starting FB for the Texans. We have Fulse who is a bigger TE ... but not the dominante blocker that Prosch is.
Prosch absolutely owned everybody. Including top LB from Bama CJ Mosley .... like it was no big deal ... He'll be missed.

Better team, tougher schedule.

I think we'll have 1 loss going into the Ironbowl. I need to see them before I predict that game.

[The Hogfather]

I didn't really go into detail about what I think about Auburn:

I think we'll be better in some areas. Better overall on the DL (But not better a WDE where Lawson is out for half the season)

Definitely better at LB

Better in the secondary too.

Still not one of the best Defenses in the nation ... just improved.

Big losses from last year were Ford (Who Lawson would replace/injured) on Defense.
MLB Jake Holland wasn't Auburn fans' favorite player ... he rotated with Frost who looks vastly improved. Lose Davis at CB ... we'll miss him more on punt/kick returns than as a CB.

Offense .... biggest loss??? Greg Robinson? Nope ... Shon Coleman is expected to fill that void nicely .... I say the biggest loss is Fullback Jay Prosch. Prosch was an animal last year ... the best FB in college football now starting FB for the Texans. We have Fulse who is a bigger TE ... but not the dominante blocker that Prosch is.
Prosch absolutely owned everybody. Including top LB from Bama CJ Mosley .... like it was no big deal ... He'll be missed.

Better team, tougher schedule.

I think we'll have 1 loss going into the Ironbowl. I need to see them before I predict that game.

Score Saturday?

[NaturalStateReb]

Appears every team is going to go 8-4 to 12-0 except for Arkansas.  That sucks....

Good seasons require a lot of breaks.  If there's anything that Arkansas didn't get last year, it was good luck.  Seemed like Murphy's Law hit the Hogs in spades last year.  That probably won't happen again, and that's why I think Arkansas has a legit shot at a bowl.  Might not make it, but there's a reasonable path to 6 in the schedule.

[The Hogfather]

Good seasons require a lot of breaks.  If there's anything that Arkansas didn't get last year, it was good luck.  Seemed like Murphy's Law hit the Hogs in spades last year.  That probably won't happen again, and that's why I think Arkansas has a legit shot at a bowl.  Might not make it, but there's a reasonable path to 6 in the schedule.

It is just funny to me when you ask fans to give an honest, objective take on each of their team's upcoming season, and every single one of them has their team at 8-4 or better.  I just get a chuckle out of it.

[footballfan2]

Score Saturday?

Taking rain out of it ... My prediction from earlier in the week is:

Auburn 38
Arkansas 21

If it's really really wet
Auburn 27
Arkansas 17

Auburn not covering. It's been pretty hush hush, but don't expect Marshall to miss more than 1 Qtr (since no punishment was required) and Mincy to miss more than a 1/2.

As an Aubun fan, I'm actually excited to see Jeremy Johnson in action as a starter. There's a lot of hype about him. Going back to those 7 on 7s in High School (Specifically here in Hoover, AL) he would always win those tournaments. He was also Mr. Football & Mr. Basketball in the highest classification in AL.

When Gus comments on those two he always says "Great Athlete" when referencing Marshall and "NFL arm when referencing JJ.  I think JJ is AU's next NFL QB.

[footballfan2]

Mitchel was 3rd on the depth chart, behind Carroll Washington and DJ Dean.

Was that not because of Mitchell being out?

[Hook 'em Hogs]

To all of the non-Arkansas SEC posters in this thread, +1.  To most of the hogville posters +1.  This is a great, great thread, Biggus.

[footballfan2]

One of the best threads here in a long time.  Great in depth info.  I suggest watching the 2013 LSU / Auburn game (a loss) and the 2013 Miss St / Auburn game (very close game).  The key to us winning the game is making Nick Marshall throw.  The receivers may be better but he looked like a defensive back trying to pass in these two game examples.  Also notice the success LSU had running the football in the A and B gaps.  Of course they had Copeland (a 270 pound fullback) leading the way, but we should have success on the ground in this area of the field as well.

Here is the LSU game link if you want to watch it...www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsRprXAyu9g

Respectively, Don't watch the first half of Auburn's season last year (I promise you the Arkansas coaches aren't paying too much attention) 
Marshsall didn't know the offense until half way point of the season.
The best film study on AU would be week 8 on, for breaking film down.

AU (in my opinion) would've beat MSU by 17 or more if they played later in the year ... & would've beaten LSU as well.   Auburn was just a different team at the half way point last year. I think most on here would agree with that???

[murfvol]

I love my mother, but I'm not picking her to win a race. I'd pull for her against Usain Bolt, but expect her to lose big. Being a fan doesn't mean a lack of objectivity. That said, here's my take on Tennessee.

Coaching
The jury is still out on the staff. Jones is better than what UT has had of late, but are he and his staff the answer? I don't know. I tend to think the ceiling for them is more Jim Donnan than Bobby Petrino, but we shall see. They do recruit well (aided massively by legacy guys).

Offense
QB will be better, but really iffy. The skill positions are quite good, but UT has had losing seasons with better skill. The OL is decent talent-wise.

Defense
Talent is fine here, but not great. I'm not sure good enough coaching exists to scheme favorably. Power teams will be a problem.

Special Teams
These could be an adventure. They'll be sporadically really good, and then a few duds.

Overall
There's some young talent, little depth, and no proven QB (or even one with much upside). I think the Vols can get to 6 wins, but it will take surprising developments at QB, or opponent injuries to get past that. Four wins is probably a hard floor, and eight a solid ceiling. The good news is the East is deficient offensively outside Mizzou this year.

[The Hogfather]

Respectively, Don't watch the first half of Auburn's season last year (I promise you the Arkansas coaches aren't paying too much attention) 
Marshsall didn't know the offense until half way point of the season.
The best film study on AU would be week 8 on, for breaking film down.

AU (in my opinion) would've beat MSU by 17 or more if they played later in the year ... & would've beaten LSU as well.   Auburn was just a different team at the half way point last year. I think most on here would agree with that???

Probably also would've beaten Seattle and Denver if they played them in November.  Let's be honest....

[Jackrabbit Hog]

I love my mother, but I'm not picking her to win a race. I'd pull for her against Usain Bolt, but expect her to lose big. Being a fan doesn't mean a lack of objectivity. That said, here's my take on Tennessee.

Coaching
The jury is still out on the staff. Jones is better than what UT has had of late, but are he and his staff the answer? I don't know. I tend to think the ceiling for them is more Jim Donnan than Bobby Petrino, but we shall see. They do recruit well (aided massively by legacy guys).

Offense
QB will be better, but really iffy. The skill positions are quite good, but UT has had losing seasons with better skill. The OL is decent talent-wise.

Defense
Talent is fine here, but not great. I'm not sure good enough coaching exists to scheme favorably. Power teams will be a problem.

Special Teams
These could be an adventure. They'll be sporadically really good, and then a few duds.

Overall
There's some young talent, little depth, and no proven QB (or even one with much upside). I think the Vols can get to 6 wins, but it will take surprising developments at QB, or opponent injuries to get past that. Four wins is probably a hard floor, and eight a solid ceiling. The good news is the East is deficient offensively outside Mizzou this year.

Thanks murf.  I appreciate the objective analysis.  I live in Memphis, am surrounded by Vol fans and try to keep up with them more than any other SEC team (aside from the Hogs, of course), just so I can converse with their fans a little better.

I think you've hit most nails on the head.  The Vols' skill players are mostly young but have the talent to be among the very best in the league.  Their WRs scare me; glad our secondary isn't facing them this year.  But I think your QB and your OL will keep the offense from really taking off.  Maybe next year.

I think defensively you'll be okay, although your DL will have to mature and jell pretty quickly.

And I think your coach has proven he can recruit and energize the fans, but so far has done nothing to prove he can actually coach.

Good luck this season.

[John Futrall]

This ain't no puffery...Biggus, you are perhaps one of the most researched posters not only on Hogville, but across a LOT of boards I read.  I do have some issue with your Auburn worries post and I'll address those in your post.

I really enjoyed the format that Natural State Reb created, so I will use it as best I can.

The Good:

First time in 4 years the offense and defense have enjoyed the same staff two years in a row.  It made world of difference between the 2009 and 2010 seasons in things other than just Cam and I am looking forward to seeing a team that begins the year understanding the system.

Returning QB that now feels he has a huge deficit to make up to the team.  Marshall understands Gus' system very well now...made a huge mistake but feel it may be a blessing in disguise...he needed to get knocked down a notch or two.  He has worked hard in the off season to improve his passing and, with our receivers returning, just a little bit better can show huge improvements on the scoreboard.

Good, can be great, stable of running backs.  Corey Grant and Cameron Payne offer a good 1-2 punch of inside and outside running.  Peyton Barber was the player of the spring and suffered an ankle sprain...he may be a breakout player, but think he is a relief back right now.  Once he learns how to pass block and the schemes, Freshman Roc Thomas may pass them all.  He and Korliss Marshall remind me of each other in their high school films.

Solid Line Play on both sides.  At the end of the year, this offensive and defensive line will stack up with anyone.  The playcaller, Reese Dismukes, may be the smartest center in the game.  Because of that, I am less concerned with the shuffle in the line to replace Robinson and Kozan.  Braden Smith will be a starter before the year is over...so will Frank Ragnow Hog Fans.

The DL is solid..not spectacular.  The return of 5th year senior Jeff Whitaker helps a lot in the inside.  I am skeptical of the DE right now but feel they will be solid.

I will put our WR corp up against anyone.  I love being able to put 6-2 and 6-4 across the field in every rotation.  Dacquille Williams is probably one and done, but I will have a helluva good time watching him.  I think he will be special..and if you focus on him too much, Coates, Bray, Ray will make you pay.  Our H-back, TE combination of Fulse and Uzomah  will be more than servicable.

I really like our coaching staff.  Everyone here knows that Malzahn is as good an offensive playcaller as their is.  But, I really like having Ellis Johnson as the DC.  In every job he has taken, his 1st to 2nd year improvement is marked...I see nothing to prove that wrong this year.  I think we gameplan and adjust as well as anyone.

The Bad:

For all the special athletes Auburn has recruited lately, LB has not been on of them.  Tre Williams will be a good one...but he is 1/2 year away.  McKinsey and Frost are nice...but none strike fear in your heart like a good LB should. Justin Garrett may be good at the Star...but he has never made it through a year healthy.  I'm from Missouri here, SHOW ME

Secondary.  This time next year, I'll be fine...but not this year.  We lost some key players and leaders in Whitehead and Davis.  We have no identity there right now.  A good receiving corp will make us pay if that doesn't happen.  I worry about Ole Miss, SC, and Georgia and the corp they bring.

Special teams.  How many times did Stephen Clark pin a team inside the 5???  Not there this year.  Cody Parkey was ice water.  Not there.  I get the sweats thinking about this aspect.  Daniel Carlson better be a stud.

Being the hunted rather than the hunter.  Yeah, its an intangible...but will the team be hungry?  You like to think so, but will complacency creep into this team?  For sure, there will be a circle around any game.

The Schedule:

Arkansas
San Jose State
At Kansas State
La Tech
LSU
At Mississippi State
South Carolina
At Ole Miss
Texas A&M
At Georgia
Samford
At Bama

Brutal just to look at it, but if we have to play that, it sets up well.  Kansas State is a trap game for sure, but we get a bye before we play them.  We get a few more days of rest before La Tech and LSU.  The cowbell game at MSU is worrisome for sure.  We have another bye before South Carolina comes in to Auburn.  Then, the game I hate...Ole Miss.  I don't like the matchup at all but it does come after they play LSU where I hope the Bengal Tigers rough em up.  We finish with A&M, Georgia, Samford and Bama.  I think we will lose a game in that stretch for sure.

Prediction:  With some breaks 10-2 and a chance to play in Atlanta and in the Final Four.  We could actually be a better team than last year and still be 9-3.

There you have it.   

Excellent post.

[footballfan2]

Probably also would've beaten Seattle and Denver if they played them in November.  Let's be honest....

I wasn't being sarcastic
So you're saying that AU was the same team at the end of last season than they were in the first part (against LSU & MSU??)

[JIHawg]

Best thread ever on this board IMO.

[LZH]

Best thread ever on this board IMO.

It's actually about football.  My goodness, I'm so out of my element in this thread!

[HogGoneWild]

Well, I'm gonna guess the offense will be less effective because of execution at QB and less ability at WR. That's a tough combination. You're starting a true freshman receiver, a redshirt freshman and a juco transfer who is a sophomore. Obviously, the returning receivers other than Kennedy were nothing special. And Kennedy is a possession receiver who averaged 11 yards a catch.

You can act like replacing the 69 catches, 1,400 yards, 12 TDs of Mike Evans is easy. It wasn't just Evans's experience and ability - he also had chemistry with Manziel.

Plus, Manziel gained over 900 yards rushing excluding sacks and ran for nine TDs on top of throwing for 37. Hill could be pretty good and not touch those stats.

[AubFaninArk]

[BPsTheMan]

I didn't really go into detail about what I think about Auburn:

I think we'll be better in some areas. Better overall on the DL (But not better a WDE where Lawson is out for half the season)

Definitely better at LB

Better in the secondary too.

Still not one of the best Defenses in the nation ... just improved.

Big losses from last year were Ford (Who Lawson would replace/injured) on Defense.
MLB Jake Holland wasn't Auburn fans' favorite player ... he rotated with Frost who looks vastly improved. Lose Davis at CB ... we'll miss him more on punt/kick returns than as a CB.

Offense .... biggest loss??? Greg Robinson? Nope ... Shon Coleman is expected to fill that void nicely .... I say the biggest loss is Fullback Jay Prosch. Prosch was an animal last year ... the best FB in college football now starting FB for the Texans. We have Fulse who is a bigger TE ... but not the dominante blocker that Prosch is.
Prosch absolutely owned everybody. Including top LB from Bama CJ Mosley .... like it was no big deal ... He'll be missed.

Better team, tougher schedule.

I think we'll have 1 loss going into the Ironbowl. I need to see them before I predict that game.

+1 for being a real Auburn fan - not a fake one from Springdale

[Hogwild]

don't know if this has been posted but

SEC Coaches describe their team in one word-
Alabama's Nick Saban: Untested
Arkansas' Bret Bielema: Motivated
Auburn's Gus Malzahn: Experienced
Florida's Will Muschamp: Hungry
Georgia's Mark Richt: Wow
Kentucky's Mark Stoops: Improved
LSU's Les Miles: Unknown
Mississippi State's Dan Mullen: Hungry
Missouri's Gary Pinkel: Confident
Ole Miss' Hugh Freeze: Relentless
South Carolina's Steve Spurrier: Decent
Tennessee's Butch Jones: Committed
Texas A&M's Kevin Sumlin: Eager
Vanderbilt's Derek Mason: Audacious

[Biggus Piggus]

Well. I hope South Carolina is just bad with no secondary and pass rush. Texas A&M had control of that game from the beginning.

[The Hogfather]

South Carolina looked bad.  I think TAMU looked decent, but South Carolina did not look good at all.

[Theolesnort]

Openers are so hard to predict because you don't really know about strength and weaknesses until several weeks into the season. Perceptions going in can be just that, perception. The perception by most is Auburn is a blowing going football machine while Ark is a bottom feeder with no or little talent and this will be a twenty plus point win by Auburn.The reality though, is that Auburn probably is not as good as last years team and that Arkansas has probably taken a couple steps up so................. If Ark plays a almost flawless game unlike last year, this becomes a highly contested game. But once again, the expectation and perception means little when talking about openers. Expect the unexpected.        or not

Texas A&M and South Carolina was a perfect example of this. Totally unexpected by me. A&M looks real to me with a roster full of big receivers, offensive line, qb and even the defense was manned by some real athletic types. Hogfather decent is far from the right word or that is the perception now and Bama is going to have trouble with these guys is how I see it. If A&M is 6TH in the West then they must be 6TH in the whole SEC also. Maybe we can surprise too. Just so you know that 6TH reference was tongue in cheek.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Texas A&M and South Carolina was a perfect example of this. Totally unexpected by me. A&M looks real to me with a roster full of big receivers, offensive line, qb and even the defense was manned by some real athletic types. Hogfather decent is far from the right word or that is the perception now and Bama is going to have trouble with these guys is how I see it. If A&M is 6TH in the West then they must be 6TH in the whole SEC also. Maybe we can surprise too. Just so you know that 6TH reference was tongue in cheek.

A&M did look good and they appeared to have found a run defense as well. They did earn quite a few pass interference penalties in pass defense, but other than that, they looked pretty good to me.

[The Hogfather]

Hogfather decent is far from the right word or that is the perception now and Bama is going to have trouble with these guys is how I see it.

I think they are decent and looked better because South Carolina is not good.

I think they'll be able to score on anyone, but I also think some better offensive teams will be able to outscore them.

[footballfan2]

I think they are decent and looked better because South Carolina is not good.

I think they'll be able to score on anyone, but I also think some better offensive teams will be able to outscore them.

This ^^^  Or this is what I'm hoping!

SEC (West) SEC (West) SEC (West)!

[Biggus Piggus]

Texas A&M and South Carolina was a perfect example of this. Totally unexpected by me. A&M looks real to me with a roster full of big receivers, offensive line, qb and even the defense was manned by some real athletic types. Hogfather decent is far from the right word or that is the perception now and Bama is going to have trouble with these guys is how I see it. If A&M is 6TH in the West then they must be 6TH in the whole SEC also. Maybe we can surprise too. Just so you know that 6TH reference was tongue in cheek.

South Carolina also has problems. Mike Davis was not healthy. When he's on, Davis is a dangerous running back. He hasn't been healthy all summer. Without him South Carolina has no running game. There was a reason why Connor Shaw was so much better than the guy SC has at quarterback now. He could keep drives alive with his feet. Other problems? They don't have a big, pro-type wide receiver anymore. Their defense is starting six second-year players and a true freshman. Their secondary is green and patched together. Their defensive ends are weak.

None of us paid attention to South Carolina because they are not on our schedule this season. I wish they were.

[The Hogfather]

None of us paid attention to South Carolina because they are not on our schedule this season. I wish they were.

Absolutely wish they were.

[Biggus Piggus]

Absolutely wish they were.

And this season the SEC might finally have a good, old-fashioned, Southwest Conference-style patsy in Vanderbilt. Also not on our schedule.

[The Hogfather]

And this season the SEC might finally have a good, old-fashioned, Southwest Conference-style patsy in Vanderbilt. Also not on our schedule.

Yep.  Typical.

[Theolesnort]

Well first games are hard to grade but I have a gut feeling A&M is going to be a lot better than we want them to be. Again looking at their over all squad I see athletes, really good ones.

[lefty96]

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Overall:
We are fielding what is arguably the most talented team in Mullen's time at State returning a significant amount of starters and heavy contributors from last year.

Offense:
Enough has been written about Dak Prescott.  In short, if he can make the improvements that everyone says he has made, he will be the best QB in the school's history.  His performance this year will be what swings State's offense from average to good – we'll go as far as he'll take us.  Prescott will be complimented by a pair of hard hitting running backs that will make State's running game very physical. 
We return Jameon Lewis De'Runnya Wilson at wide out and a host of other receivers with experience – again like with Prescott, if they can take a step forward, the receiving corp should be solid.
We did lose a lineman for the season with a knee injury, like everyone else pre-season, there is plenty of speculation of how much this will impact performance, at the very least it is lost depth. 

Defense:
I expect this unit to be the best defense we've had since the Sherrill era.  Geoff Collins has done a heckuva a job as DC, and we are legitimately 2 deep across the d-line and have star power up front with Chris Jones .  The linebackers will be led by Bernardrick McKinney, who is projected as a first round draft pick this year.  Our secondary is full of returning starters.  I expect our D to be near the top of the league

Special Teams: 
They've sucked under Mullen and I see no reason for this to change.

Overall, I expect us to go 8-4.  If Prescott and the D live up to the expectations, it could be a special year, if Prescott goes down, all bets are off.

[RoyInSpringdale/MizzouFan]

While I am a Mizzou fan, I would first like to address TAMU based on my Big 12 experience. During Pinkel's tenure at Mizzou, I have watched TAMU consistently put out on the field a team full of fantastic athletes and BIG lineman. And every time Mizzou would line up I would think we were in trouble. Some how we have done very well against them the last decade. I believe coaching was the difference.

Now that TAMU has a great coach, and even better recruiting, they are going to be a contender every year. I listen to local sports casters here in Arkansas talk about how horrible TAMU is/was based on their SWAC days. This is a mistake. They are here to stay.

Now,,,,for Mizzou. There are some knowns: We have a gamer for a QB that looks like a smaller version of a young Favre. He is confident, and can use his feet to improvise. He is not scared to gamble.

Very good running backs. Not big like Arkansas, but elusive, and great bursts of speed.

Offensive line is experienced even with losing some starters.

Defensive line will probably be better than last years.

The unknowns:

Receivers,,who steps up? I would lie if I said I wasn't worried. But Pinkel has a history of success at producing an effective receiving corps.

Linebackers,,,and DBs,, This is our biggest weakness at the moment. We lost a lot of talent here. We will be giving up big chunks through the air this year.

Special teams,,will the kicker get his head on this year? Mizzou was spoiled having 2 very accurate kickers back to back. Now extra points can't even be taken for granted.

Our return game has a history of success no matter who is back there, so I am not worried about that.

I can't put a number on the season. I can see 7-5, and I can see 11-1. Once again, too many unknowns,,,,,but I will not be surprised unless we fail to make a bowl.

Biggus, thank you for the chance to actually discuss football.

[BAMAPERRY]

TAMU has 8 straight weeks before a bye week. That 8th game is against Bama in Tuscaloosa.

[Hog N Bama]

TAMU has 8 straight weeks before a bye week. That 8th game is against Bama in Tuscaloosa.

Wouldn't that be just awesome if TAMU went into Saban's house and whipped them AGAIN. 

[BAMAPERRY]

Wouldn't that be just awesome if TAMU went into Saban's house and whipped them AGAIN. 

NO!