Intelligent, honest SEC fans - hit me!

[Biggus Piggus]

I am looking for the last honest SEC fans. All I want to see on this thread: Brutally honest takes on YOUR favorite SEC football team -- and I am only talking to fans of teams other than Arkansas.

We have seen maybe ONE honest fan of an opposing team post on Hogville all summer. Please drop your bluster and tell us the truth as best you can. The truth you talk about with other fans of your team.

If you post more puffery, I'll delete it. Prove to me that you can talk football in an intelligent fashion.

Take Auburn, for example. I cannot tell how good people really believe the team is. Best take I saw suggested that, deep down, you expect to lose several games this season.

As for playing Arkansas, I'll say this to fans of other SEC teams. You had better be good at run defense. You had better be good at safety. You had better be good at pass protection. Cover those, and you're good.

[AugustaHog]

Please don't move this thread.  If we get any takers, it will be really good football banter that, I think, we as Hogs fans will appreciate.  I get tired of all the turds that we deal with from other teams.  It would be really refreshing to see more posts like that of AUGoose the other day where he had a realistic breakdown of Auburn's team with strengths and weaknesses.  +1 to the OP for a good idea.  Hopefully someone bites.

[Biggus Piggus]

I'll chip in with the top worries at Auburn.

Number 1: The biggest risk Auburn is taking. Redshirt freshman Daniel Carlson (recruited by the previous coaching staff) is the new placekicker and punter. Carlson is the only freshmen in NCAA football who is both kicker and punter for his team. Two teams in FBS did this last season. Two years ago, this kid was a converted soccer player kicking for a Class 3A charter school in Colorado. I don't care how physically talented he is. Doing this is a terrific mental and emotional challenge.

Number 2: Pass rush. Auburn had 32 sacks in 14 games last season. The top two sack artists were Dee Ford (NFL) and Carl Lawson (injured). Sophomore end Elijah Daniel (6-2, 263) is expected to be the primary rusher. He had 2.5 sacks last season, 1 in SEC play. This sack issue might be even bigger in the Arkansas game, when the Tigers are essentially going with four defensive tackles up front.

You can't really go by stats. For example, Auburn's scorer was very generous with hurries. He found that the Tigers had 110 hurries (supposedly, forcing the QB to throw too quickly) vs. 25 for the opposition. Let me compare this with Alabama, for example. Their scorer found 44 QB hurries. How about last year's best pass rushing team, Missouri? Only 62 hurries. Auburn claimed they had two reserves with more hurries than Mizzou's top two sack artists. Riiiight.

Number 3: Offensive line. They will probably be good before long, but starting out, Auburn has to deal with a lot of changes. Left tackle Shon Coleman is 22 years old but has never started. He played in seven games last season but did not get to do much pass protection. Coleman is strong and talented; Arkansas might have an edge in his first start, throwing Trey Flowers at him.

As a freshman and sophomore, Patrick Miller started 14 games at right tackle, but he lost that job after five games in 2013 due to an off-field transgression. Before that, Miller was promoted in Auburn's lost 2012 because starter Avery Young got hurt.

This year, Young was moved to RG in a shuffle after veteran Alex Kozan went down with an injury. Young, still a sophomore after a medical redshirt, replaced Miller at RT in 2013 and kept the job for the last nine games. Now the guards are Young and senior Chad Slade, who moved from RG to LG.

Did Miller stand much of a challenge to win the RT position? Auburn lists third-year sophomore Robert Leff as the second teamer. His experience is limited to special teams. More of a long-term prospect.

At best, this line has to get used to a lot of changes.

Number 4: Secondary. The top Auburn DBs in SEC play last season were Ryan Smith (gone), Jermaine Whitehead, Chris Davis (gone), Robenson Therezie (double-secret probation) and Jonathon Mincy (missing as much/little of the Arkansas game as Malzahn can get away with). Starting SS Johnathan Ford is suspect, backed by a juco transfer whose head is swimming right now.

The initial starter at boundary corner is tweener Joshua Holsey, a junior who was in and out of the starting lineup for two seasons. Other side, the cover guy, is junior Jonathan Jones, who missed the first half of last season due to injury and has one career start (as a nickel back). Behind him is a guy converted after three years as a wide receiver.

Last year's secondary was head-and-shoulders above this one. In SEC games, Auburn gave up 60% completion, 274 yards per game, 13 TDs vs. 8 INTs. That's eighth in completion %, mid-pack in TD/INT, 11th in yards allowed per attempt. And that was with a pass rush Auburn doesn't have anymore.

Number 5: Running backs. Auburn in 2013 had two players in the top 15 of SEC-only rushing, Tre Mason and Nick Marshall. One is gone, the other getting his hand slapped in game one. Arkansas had two, Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams. Auburn clearly did not sign anyone good enough to come in and start. This year's starters were bit players in past SEC games. It's possible that the Malzahn Magic will turn two off backs into stars. He made Mason (5-8, 207) look awesome. But at least Mason had been a 1,000-yard rusher in 2012 and a stud kick returner as a freshman. One wonders how soon Malzahn will start fiddling with the running back rotation.

[BAMAPERRY]

This was written by a barner, so I'm shocked at the objectivity.


5 Reasons Auburn Should Be Worried About Arkansas, Part 3

http://flywareagle.com/2014/08/01/5-reasons-auburn-worried-arkansas-part-3/

[Hollywood_HOGan45]

I'll chip in with the top worries at Auburn.

Number 1: The biggest risk Auburn is taking. Redshirt freshman Daniel Carlson (recruited by the previous coaching staff) is the new placekicker and punter. Carlson is the only freshmen in NCAA football who is both kicker and punter for his team. Two teams in FBS did this last season. Two years ago, this kid was a converted soccer player kicking for a Class 3A charter school in Colorado. I don't care how physically talented he is. Doing this is a terrific mental and emotional challenge.

Number 2: Pass rush. Auburn had 32 sacks in 14 games last season. The top two sack artists were Dee Ford (NFL) and Carl Lawson (injured). Sophomore end Elijah Daniel (6-2, 263) is expected to be the primary rusher. He had 2.5 sacks last season, 1 in SEC play. This sack issue might be even bigger in the Arkansas game, when the Tigers are essentially going with four defensive tackles up front.

You can't really go by stats. For example, Auburn's scorer was very generous with hurries. He found that the Tigers had 110 hurries (supposedly, forcing the QB to throw too quickly) vs. 25 for the opposition. Let me compare this with Alabama, for example. Their scorer found 44 QB hurries. How about last year's best pass rushing team, Missouri? Only 62 hurries. Auburn claimed they had two reserves with more hurries than Mizzou's top two sack artists. Riiiight.

Number 3: Offensive line. They will probably be good before long, but starting out, Auburn has to deal with a lot of changes. Left tackle Shon Coleman is 22 years old but has never started. He played in seven games last season but did not get to do much pass protection. Coleman is strong and talented; Arkansas might have an edge in his first start, throwing Trey Flowers at him.

As a freshman and sophomore, Patrick Miller started 14 games at right tackle, but he lost that job after five games in 2013 due to an off-field transgression. Before that, Miller was promoted in Auburn's lost 2012 because starter Avery Young got hurt.

This year, Young was moved to RG in a shuffle after veteran Alex Kozan went down with an injury. Young, still a sophomore after a medical redshirt, replaced Miller at RT in 2013 and kept the job for the last nine games. Now the guards are Young and senior Chad Slade, who moved from RG to LG.

Did Miller stand much of a challenge to win the RT position? Auburn lists third-year sophomore Robert Leff as the second teamer. His experience is limited to special teams. More of a long-term prospect.

At best, this line has to get used to a lot of changes.

Number 4: Secondary. The top Auburn DBs in SEC play last season were Ryan Smith (gone), Jermaine Whitehead, Chris Davis (gone), Robenson Therezie (double-secret probation) and Jonathon Mincy (missing as much/little of the Arkansas game as Malzahn can get away with). Starting SS Johnathan Ford is suspect, backed by a juco transfer whose head is swimming right now.

The initial starter at boundary corner is tweener Joshua Holsey, a junior who was in and out of the starting lineup for two seasons. Other side, the cover guy, is junior Jonathan Jones, who missed the first half of last season due to injury and has one career start (as a nickel back). Behind him is a guy converted after three years as a wide receiver.

Last year's secondary was head-and-shoulders above this one. In SEC games, Auburn gave up 60% completion, 274 yards per game, 13 TDs vs. 8 INTs. That's eighth in completion %, mid-pack in TD/INT, 11th in yards allowed per attempt. And that was with a pass rush Auburn doesn't have anymore.

Number 5: Running backs. Auburn in 2013 had two players in the top 15 of SEC-only rushing, Tre Mason and Nick Marshall. One is gone, the other getting his hand slapped in game one. Arkansas had two, Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams. Auburn clearly did not sign anyone good enough to come in and start. This year's starters were bit players in past SEC games. It's possible that the Malzahn Magic will turn two off backs into stars. He made Mason (5-8, 207) look awesome. But at least Mason had been a 1,000-yard rusher in 2012 and a stud kick returner as a freshman. One wonders how soon Malzahn will start fiddling with the running back rotation.

Great write-up.

What is your prediction on the game?

[Biggus Piggus]

Great write-up.

What is your prediction on the game?

If I had to write up the Hogs' concerns, they would look somewhat better on special teams, definitely better in pass rush and running backs, but less favorable for the Oline and secondary, and far more questionable at QB, WR, DT and LB.

This is a hard game to call because Arkansas likely isn't going to get Auburn's best shot. Injuries and disciplinary issues have injected variables into the Auburn lineup that could sharply elevate the likelihood of game-changing mistakes. I expect:

The Hogs to throw with greater success than anybody expects.
The Hogs to run with less success than anybody expects.

Even if Auburn doesn't run as effectively as expected, its passers have very good targets at WR and TE. That's probably how the Tigers will win this football game.

All that's absent any effects on the game from special teams. Auburn's kid could be great, mostly great, or a mess. We've got an untested kicker too. Both teams have speed in the return game.

Beyond all that, who wins the psychological game among the coaches? Malzahn is expected not only to win this game but to make it a blowout. Bielema has been pounded by the media with his 0-8 SEC start, but anything short of a blowout would impress those same media.

When it comes to predicting things, sometimes you can identify one possible outcome that's extremely probable -- such as Arkansas getting blown out by South Carolina and Alabama last season. In this case, I don't see any one particular scenario as highly probable. Most likely Auburn wins, most likely not a blowout.

It ought to be pretty easy, after this game, to identify which coach prepared his team well. Could be both did. But I believe the answer to that question will be obvious after the game.

[OrvilleRedenporker]

One of the best threads here in a long time.  Great in depth info.  I suggest watching the 2013 LSU / Auburn game (a loss) and the 2013 Miss St / Auburn game (very close game).  The key to us winning the game is making Nick Marshall throw.  The receivers may be better but he looked like a defensive back trying to pass in these two game examples.  Also notice the success LSU had running the football in the A and B gaps.  Of course they had Copeland (a 270 pound fullback) leading the way, but we should have success on the ground in this area of the field as well.

Here is the LSU game link if you want to watch it...www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsRprXAyu9g

[Großer Kriegschwein]

This was written by a barner, so I'm shocked at the objectivity.


5 Reasons Auburn Should Be Worried About Arkansas, Part 3

http://flywareagle.com/2014/08/01/5-reasons-auburn-worried-arkansas-part-3/

Very objective. I don't think we make those same mistakes on Saturday.

[Theolesnort]

Openers are so hard to predict because you don't really know about strength and weaknesses until several weeks into the season. Perceptions going in can be just that, perception. The perception by most is Auburn is a blowing going football machine while Ark is a bottom feeder with no or little talent and this will be a twenty plus point win by Auburn.The reality though, is that Auburn probably is not as good as last years team and that Arkansas has probably taken a couple steps up so................. If Ark plays a almost flawless game unlike last year, this becomes a highly contested game. But once again, the expectation and perception means little when talking about openers. Expect the unexpected.        or not

[Biggus Piggus]

Openers are so hard to predict because you don't really know about strength and weaknesses until several weeks into the season. Perceptions going in can be just that, perception. The perception by most is Auburn is a blowing going football machine while Ark is a bottom feeder with no or little talent and this will be a twenty plus point win by Auburn.The reality though, is that Auburn probably is not as good as last years team and that Arkansas has probably taken a couple steps up so................. If Ark plays a almost flawless game unlike last year, this becomes a highly contested game. But once again, the expectation and perception means little when talking about openers. Expect the unexpected.        or not

For Auburn, opening at home is a major advantage. It is hard to quantify the benefit, but for starters, Malzahn depends heavily on friendly treatment from the game officials. They have to cooperate if he's going to engineer any advantage in pace of play + prevention of substitutions. Arkansas's defense will be much better when it can substitute in a normal manner.

[hogsanity]

For Auburn, opening at home is a major advantage. It is hard to quantify the benefit, but for starters, Malzahn depends heavily on friendly treatment from the game officials. They have to cooperate if he's going to engineer any advantage in pace of play + prevention of substitutions. Arkansas's defense will be much better when it can substitute in a normal manner.

according to some hog fans over in the pace of play thread, Gus should be given advantages by the refs to do those very things.

[MJ2]

For Auburn, opening at home is a major advantage. It is hard to quantify the benefit, but for starters, Malzahn depends heavily on friendly treatment from the game officials. They have to cooperate if he's going to engineer any advantage in pace of play + prevention of substitutions. Arkansas's defense will be much better when it can substitute in a normal manner.

You hit the nail on the head.   Malzahn is a perfectionist and will leave no stone unturned (kind of like putting a returner back on field goal attempt last year). AU will be well prepared. 

[Hollywood_HOGan45]

For Auburn, opening at home is a major advantage. It is hard to quantify the benefit, but for starters, Malzahn depends heavily on friendly treatment from the game officials. They have to cooperate if he's going to engineer any advantage in pace of play + prevention of substitutions. Arkansas's defense will be much better when it can substitute in a normal manner.

Great stuff.

I expect arkansas to start with trying to strike the big play with Korliss.

[clew]

Still waiting for the elusive, honest SEC fans to chime in on their team...Great thread.

[NaturalStateReb]

+1 for Diogenes. 

Maybe we should all adopt names of Greek philosophers.

[Chief Mac]

Still waiting for the elusive, honest SEC fans to chime in on their team...Great thread.

doesn't MJ2 count?  He is a Gus fan so I think it counts

[NaturalStateReb]

Here we go on Ole Miss.

The Good:

We're one of the few teams that have a returning QB.  Bo Wallace has amassed 40 passing TD's over 7,000 yards of offense during his two years at Ole Miss.  He's on the Maxwell Award watch list and he's had 2 years in Freeze's system.  This season, that stability at QB is a unique commodity. 

Our WR/TE corps should be as good as any in the conference, maybe as good as any in the country.  Laquon Treadwell is the name that everyone knows, and justifiably so, but Vince Sanders and Quincy Adeboyejo are also solid.  TE Evan Engram was on his way to Freshman All-SEC honors last year before an injury took him out for 5 games.   

2014 may see the Rebels have their best all-around defensive team in a very long time.  The defense is solid two deep at nearly every position.  C.J. Johnson is returning from an injury, Fadol Brown and Woodrow Hamilton are playmakers, and everyone knows about Robert Nkemdiche.  Serderius Bryant and Denzel Nkemdiche, both All-SEC, return as linebackers in the Rebels 4-2-5 scheme.  The Rebels return all 3 cornerbacks: Hilton, Elston, and Golson.  Ole Miss' safeties--Cody Prewitt and Tony Connor--are as good as any in the nation.  Prewitt was All-American.

The Bad

Even though Ole Miss returns many players, we lost several valuable skill palyers.  Gone are Jeff Scott, Ja-mes Logan, Donte Moncrief, and 3 OL starters.  The loss no one's talking about:  K Andrew Ritter.  Ritter played in every game last season and was especially good at longer distance, leading the SEC in kicks from 40+ yards including a long of 52.  The K position is still up in the air.  Will Gleeson, the new P, is a redshirt freshman.

Bo Wallace has had trouble with consistency--some games he can hang 400 yards on you; others he can turn into a turnover machine.  He's struggled with shoulder injuries, but is supposedly finally at 100%.  Wallace has to reel in the turnovers for Ole Miss to reach the next level.

Gone is Jeff Scott, and the Rebels will turn to a pair of scatbacks to run the ball.  I'Tavius Mathers and Jaylen Walton will form the RB committee.  The good news is that they both saw action last season while Scott was hurt:  Mathers ran for 563 yards and Walton for 523.  The bad news--Mathers and Walton are fairly small, at 190 and 177 pounds, respectively.  Ole Miss had some trouble in short down and red zone situations, and the lack of a tank-like RB could tell.

While the OL, anchored by Laremy Tunsil at LT, will be good and big--they actually lead the SEC in average size--the loss of the 3 starters hurts OL depth.  The Rebels struggled with the injury bug all last season--if it bites them in the OL, it's going to hurt badly.  Two out of the 5 backups in the 2-deep at this position are underclassmen.

The Schedule
Having a "good" schedule in the SEC West is mostly relative.  Ole Miss' schedule is favorable, as far as SEC schedules go.  The big plus--no Georgia, Florida, or South Carolina with which to contend.  The Rebels get Alabama, Auburn, and Mississippi State at home.  The major away games are at QB-less LSU and A&M, and at rebuilding Arkansas.  East opponents Vandy and Tennessee are clearly manageable. 

If Ole Miss beats Boise State in the opener, there's a very good chance the Rebels will be undefeated going into the home matchup against Bama on October 4th.  If so, it will be the most important game in Oxford since the LSU/Ole Miss game in Eli's senior season that decided the West.

8/28  Boise State (Atlanta)
9/6    at Vanderbilt
9/13  Louisiana-Lafayette
9/20  OPEN
9/27  Memphis
10/4  Alabama
10/11  at Texas A&M
10/18  Tennessee
10/25  at LSU
11/1    Auburn
11/8    Presbyterian
11/15  OPEN
11/22  at Arkansas
11/29  Mississippi State

My Prediction
Given the right breaks, a West title is a real possibility.  10-2, 6-2 SEC

[razorsharptusk]

What a breath of fresh air this thread is! I too would like to see some "real" fans of other teams show up and enlighten us on their football teams. 

[Saul Good]

Mizzou

The team is losing a lot of starters, but a lot of the new starters had significant playing time last year.  Maty Mauk will be the QB.  He played a lot last year and showed signs of greatness at times, but he has to improve his touch and accuracy.  His play will be a huge key to the season. 

The WRs are our biggest weakness this year after being our biggest strength last year.  The loss of DGB is a major blow. The new crop are mostly upper-classmen, but they don't have much experience.  Mizzou tends to flex out the TEs.  This season, they will likely see a lot more passes than last year.  Again, they are very inexperienced.

The line should be good.  Boehm will likely make an all-conference team, and the rest appear to be solid to good.  Overall, neither a strength nor a weakness...

RBs are deep and talented.  We don't have the homerun hitter in Josey who left early, but there are a lot of talented backs.  I think they will be used more in the passing game than in years past.


On defense, we lost a ton of talent on the D-Line in Michael Sam and Kony Ealy, and our best CB in EJ Gaines.  That said, this should be the best defense Pinkel has ever had.  Our front four is loaded but may lack depth.  The LBers are extremely athletic but somewhat inexperienced.  The secondary should be really solid as well.  If the D-line can stay healthy and the LBers take to the coaching, this defense could be really tough.

Special teams are a bit of a question mark, but that's pretty much the case with every team in college football, so...not much to say there.


If Mauk takes the next step and our WRs are serviceable, this team will compete for the East.  The first three conference games are going to tell the story...at South Carolina, Georgia, at Florida.  If Mizzou can find a way to take 2 of those, the East is there for the taking with Vandy, Kentucky, at aTm, at Tenn, and Arkansas to finish out the season.

10 wins is realistic if things come together.  Then again, we could lose a Thursday night game at Toledo (still can't believe we accepted that game), lose the following week against Central Florida (won the Fiesta Bowl last year and return 16 starters) and have to fight just to become bowl eligible.

Mark me down for 8-4 or 9-3.

[MJ2]

doesn't MJ2 count?  He is a Gus fan so I think it counts

+1

[Biggus Piggus]

10 wins is realistic if things come together.  Then again, we could lose a Thursday night game at Toledo (still can't believe we accepted that game), lose the following week against Central Florida (won the Fiesta Bowl last year and return 16 starters) and have to fight just to become bowl eligible.

Mark me down for 8-4 or 9-3.

Thanks, man. Nicely done. If you read my Arkansas preview on this board, Missouri is one of the teams I saw as being better than expected.

[razorbackkid]

I only speak Hoganeze so my comments would not be fair, rather they would be open to much speculation.  Therefore, I will not post in this thread. 

:razorback:

[Biggus Piggus]

My Prediction
Given the right breaks, a West title is a real possibility.  10-2, 6-2 SEC

Good stuff!

Egg Bowl's going to be a monster game this season. I really wonder, though, how the Rebs are going to navigate their odd November schedule.

[Hollywood_HOGan45]

Here we go on Ole Miss.

The Good:

We're one of the few teams that have a returning QB.  Bo Wallace has amassed 40 passing TD's over 7,000 yards of offense during his two years at Ole Miss.  He's on the Maxwell Award watch list and he's had 2 years in Freeze's system.  This season, that stability at QB is a unique commodity. 

Our WR/TE corps should be as good as any in the conference, maybe as good as any in the country.  Laquon Treadwell is the name that everyone knows, and justifiably so, but Vince Sanders and Quincy Adeboyejo are also solid.  TE Evan Engram was on his way to Freshman All-SEC honors last year before an injury took him out for 5 games.   

2014 may see the Rebels have their best all-around defensive team in a very long time.  The defense is solid two deep at nearly every position.  C.J. Johnson is returning from an injury, Fadol Brown and Woodrow Hamilton are playmakers, and everyone knows about Robert Nkemdiche.  Serderius Bryant and Denzel Nkemdiche, both All-SEC, return as linebackers in the Rebels 4-2-5 scheme.  The Rebels return all 3 cornerbacks: Hilton, Elston, and Golson.  Ole Miss' safeties--Cody Prewitt and Tony Connor--are as good as any in the nation.  Prewitt was All-American.

The Bad

Even though Ole Miss returns many players, we lost several valuable skill palyers.  Gone are Jeff Scott, Ja-mes Logan, Donte Moncrief, and 3 OL starters.  The loss no one's talking about:  K Andrew Ritter.  Ritter played in every game last season and was especially good at longer distance, leading the SEC in kicks from 40+ yards including a long of 52.  The K position is still up in the air.  Will Gleeson, the new P, is a redshirt freshman.

Bo Wallace has had trouble with consistency--some games he can hang 400 yards on you; others he can turn into a turnover machine.  He's struggled with shoulder injuries, but is supposedly finally at 100%.  Wallace has to reel in the turnovers for Ole Miss to reach the next level.

Gone is Jeff Scott, and the Rebels will turn to a pair of scatbacks to run the ball.  I'Tavius Mathers and Jaylen Walton will form the RB committee.  The good news is that they both saw action last season while Scott was hurt:  Mathers ran for 563 yards and Walton for 523.  The bad news--Mathers and Walton are fairly small, at 190 and 177 pounds, respectively.  Ole Miss had some trouble in short down and red zone situations, and the lack of a tank-like RB could tell.

While the OL, anchored by Laremy Tunsil at LT, will be good and big--they actually lead the SEC in average size--the loss of the 3 starters hurts OL depth.  The Rebels struggled with the injury bug all last season--if it bites them in the OL, it's going to hurt badly.  Two out of the 5 backups in the 2-deep at this position are underclassmen.

The Schedule
Having a "good" schedule in the SEC West is mostly relative.  Ole Miss' schedule is favorable, as far as SEC schedules go.  The big plus--no Georgia, Florida, or South Carolina with which to contend.  The Rebels get Alabama, Auburn, and Mississippi State at home.  The major away games are at QB-less LSU and A&M, and at rebuilding Arkansas.  East opponents Vandy and Tennessee are clearly manageable. 

If Ole Miss beats Boise State in the opener, there's a very good chance the Rebels will be undefeated going into the home matchup against Bama on October 4th.  If so, it will be the most important game in Oxford since the LSU/Ole Miss game in Eli's senior season that decided the West.

8/28  Boise State (Atlanta)
9/6    at Vanderbilt
9/13  Louisiana-Lafayette
9/20  OPEN
9/27  Memphis
10/4  Alabama
10/11  at Texas A&M
10/18  Tennessee
10/25  at LSU
11/1    Auburn
11/8    Presbyterian
11/15  OPEN
11/22  at Arkansas
11/29  Mississippi State

My Prediction
Given the right breaks, a West title is a real possibility.  10-2, 6-2 SEC

Great post.

Looking forward to seeing a good ole miss team in fayetteville without the Nutt.

[WarDamnPlainsmen]

The thing that killed Arkansas last year were the turnovers and timely (but rare) passing plays by AU. Arkansas will be able to move the ball and eat up tons of clock. If Ark can finish drives in the red-zone throughout the game they will be in it till the end. If our defense has similar schemes to last year, they will be playing to not give up the big play, and try to make a stop in the red-zone to give up 3 points instead of 7.

On offense for AU, losing Mason should make the run game slightly less effective. He was the perfect RB for read options. Corey Grant will still provide the lateral threat and open the middle up for our "every down back" Cameron Artis-Payne. I think both teams will be able to run effectively. However, I think AU will come out throwing to try and catch Ark off guard and put them on their heels. Nick Marshall's interest in the devil's lettuce might be the best thing that happened to open up the passing game for AU. Jeremy Johnson is a better passer than Marshall and I think our offense will want to show off our two likely NFL bound receivers. Johnson is the real deal when it comes to passing. I just hope he can remain calm in front of the crowd during a sold out conference game season opener.

If I had to pick a score I'd say something along the lines of 31-21 AU, with the advantage in the passing game. But I admit I have an obvious bias and an ignorance about many of the Arkansas players.

[NaturalStateReb]

Good stuff!

Egg Bowl's going to be a monster game this season. I really wonder, though, how the Rebs are going to navigate their odd November schedule.

It is pretty weird, and I guess it's due to the new conference scheduling.  We used to play Arkansas about the 3rd week of October, which I really liked.  The Presbyterian game is a snoozer, then the open date, then a road game and the Egg Bowl. 

It's possible the Egg Bowl could have West title implications.  I don't think both Ole Miss and State will be in contention at that time, but I think it's possible one of us will be and the other will be a bowl-eligible spoiler.  Should be a shootout. 

The most intriguing matchup to me is the A&M game.  Ole Miss has lost two squeakers to the Aggies with Manziel pulling it out late.  This will be the first time the Rebs have visited College Station due to a scheduling quirk, and it's the first real road test.

[NaturalStateReb]

The thing that killed Arkansas last year were the turnovers and timely (but rare) passing plays by AU. Arkansas will be able to move the ball and eat up tons of clock. If Ark can finish drives in the red-zone throughout the game they will be in it till the end. If our defense has similar schemes to last year, they will be playing to not give up the big play, and try to make a stop in the red-zone to give up 3 points instead of 7.

On offense for AU, losing Mason should make the run game slightly less effective. He was the perfect RB for read options. Corey Grant will still provide the lateral threat and open the middle up for our "every down back" Cameron Artis-Payne. I think both teams will be able to run effectively. However, I think AU will come out throwing to try and catch Ark off guard and put them on their heels. Nick Marshall's interest in the devil's lettuce might be the best thing that happened to open up the passing game for AU. Jeremy Johnson is a better passer than Marshall and I think our offense will want to show off our two likely NFL bound receivers. Johnson is the real deal when it comes to passing. I just hope he can remain calm in front of the crowd during a sold out conference game season opener.

If I had to pick a score I'd say something along the lines of 31-21 AU, with the advantage in the passing game. But I admit I have an obvious bias and an ignorance about many of the Arkansas players.

I thought the 4th down go-for-it early by Arkansas when Auburn was up 7-3 set the game's tone.  I understand that Bielema probably felt that he had to take some chances to win, but Auburn got the ball back in good position and scored on the possession.  It seemed like Auburn just kept maintaining that daylight throughout the rest of the game.

[Russ22]

Even though I live in Fayetteville, I still follow events in college station pretty closely.

The Good
The o-line is deep. Ogbuehi will be this year's left tackle taken in the top 10. Germaine Ifedi will be in line to move from RT to LT. Matthews is a future nfl talent at center. The guard positions are the most competitive at this point. Sumlin says he is looking for a nickel - not 5 pennies- for the line. So, the line will be a strength.

The wide receiver group has some players that will impress. Noil and Reynolds are new and will get plenty of run. Seals-jones returns from injury. The Aggies can put 5 receivers on the field that are 6' 5" or greater.

The running back position has 3 strong backs Carson, B. Williams, & T. Williams. Look for them to get more carries as JFF isn't taking away rushing opportunities.


The Bad
Youth on the defensive line & linebacker. The guys around the program are talking up Garrett & mastrogiovanni, but they are fr and so, respectively. The bodies in these positions are sec caliber, but you need that and experience to really impact the sec.

The Unknown
Quarterback. JFF isn't there, so there is anxiety. Sumlin knows offense so there is a confidence that 10 players around Hill will offset things until he (or Allen) is ready.

Realistically, I see the Ags at 8-4 with losses to SC, Alabama, Auburn, and a Mississippi school. My opinion could change if the defense shows real improvement in the game tomorrow night.

Pardon any typos as I am on a mobile.

[The Hogfather]

Appears every team is going to go 8-4 to 12-0 except for Arkansas.  That sucks....

[Russ22]

Some (not me) around the A&M program think the offense can be just as efficient without Johnny because it will go faster.  Johnny audibled a lot last year & things seemed more disjointed than 2012, but we scored 44 a game last year ( while giving up 34).

I could see scoring as many if the defense is improved enough to get more possessions.

[Biggus Piggus]

Some (not me) around the A&M program think the offense can be just as efficient without Johnny because it will go faster.  Johnny audibled a lot last year & things seemed more disjointed than 2012, but we scored 44 a game last year ( while giving up 34).

I could see scoring as many if the defense is improved enough to get more possessions.

Well, I'm gonna guess the offense will be less effective because of execution at QB and less ability at WR. That's a tough combination. You're starting a true freshman receiver, a redshirt freshman and a juco transfer who is a sophomore. Obviously, the returning receivers other than Kennedy were nothing special. And Kennedy is a possession receiver who averaged 11 yards a catch.

You can act like replacing the 69 catches, 1,400 yards, 12 TDs of Mike Evans is easy. It wasn't just Evans's experience and ability - he also had chemistry with Manziel.

Plus, Manziel gained over 900 yards rushing excluding sacks and ran for nine TDs on top of throwing for 37. Hill could be pretty good and not touch those stats.

[Russ22]

Well, I'm gonna guess the offense will be less effective because of execution at QB and less ability at WR. That's a tough combination. You're starting a true freshman receiver, a redshirt freshman and a juco transfer who is a sophomore. Obviously, the returning receivers other than Kennedy were nothing special. And Kennedy is a possession receiver who averaged 11 yards a catch.

You can act like replacing the 69 catches, 1,400 yards, 12 TDs of Mike Evans is easy. It wasn't just Evans's experience and ability - he also had chemistry with Manziel.

Plus, Manziel gained over 900 yards rushing excluding sacks and ran for nine TDs on top of throwing for 37. Hill could be pretty good and not touch those stats.

I am not buying the replacing of Manziel. His strength was improvisation. You won't see that kind of play from either Hill or Allen.

Replacing Evans and Jake Matthews is being done with little to no drop-off (I do believe this). I don't think that you will see a drop in receiver production.  I think that the running game will be a strength.

A below average defense was what they needed last year to have the kind of season that Auburn had. The defense was worse than that. I believe that there are now options (not depth) in the front 7 on defense that gives them a chance to be average or slightly below average. With that and Sumlin's offense, I think 8-4 is realistic.

[Russ22]

BTW, the Ags threw just 7 passes in the 2nd half last year. They ran Carson, Molena, and Williams over and over again at the Hogs. The Hogs had no answer for that. I think that is the kind of running game that could be used to support Hill or Allen.

[stripes54]

I will tell you what I told my friend this morning when he asked me about LSU:

I'm really worried about this team.  We don't have a proven QB.  Our running game is solid, thank goodness for Hillard and Magee.  If Fournette is as good as advertised, then our running game will be spectacular as we have a veteran offensive line.  A strong running game, however, won't help with 3rd and long.  Not being able to sustain long drives will be a major problem for LSU this year.

Now, having talked about the offense, what really keeps me up at night is that we have lost too much on defense.  In the past, we just knew, KNEW that our defense could win games for us.  Doesn't matter how much the offense sucks, the defense could snatch and would snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.  The defense have a lot of young talents, good talents, really good talents.  However, lack of experience and lack of upperclassman to lead them will cause them to break under pressure.

I hate to say it, but this will be a tough and trying year for my beloved Tigers.  I really think that there is a strong possibility of going 7-5 or 8-4 this year.  Next year, oh my, next year we are going to destroy everyone.  Next year LSU is going to be DOMINANT.

[Jek Tono Porkins]

You hit the nail on the head.   Malzahn is a perfectionist and will leave no stone unturned (kind of like putting a returner back on field goal attempt last year). AU will be well prepared.

I'm sorry but I have to address this point because it kills me.

Alabama had their second-string kicker attempt a 57 yard field goal.

If you don't have enough sense to put a returner on that attempt, you don't have any business being a football coach at any level.

Every single Division I coach would have done the exact same thing.

[BAMAPERRY]

Case Keenum was a 2-star QB coming out of HS. Manziel was a 3-star. Sumlin doesn't get enough credit for QB development.

[Russ22]

Case Keenum was a 2-star QB coming out of HS. Manziel was a 3-star. Sumlin doesn't get enough credit for QB development.

I agree in principle but Johnny was a 3 star because of size. At 6' 2" he would have much higher rated. I think he was responsible for 70+ TDs his senior year.

[AubFaninArk]

This ain't no puffery...Biggus, you are perhaps one of the most researched posters not only on Hogville, but across a LOT of boards I read.  I do have some issue with your Auburn worries post and I'll address those in your post.

I really enjoyed the format that Natural State Reb created, so I will use it as best I can.

The Good:

First time in 4 years the offense and defense have enjoyed the same staff two years in a row.  It made world of difference between the 2009 and 2010 seasons in things other than just Cam and I am looking forward to seeing a team that begins the year understanding the system.

Returning QB that now feels he has a huge deficit to make up to the team.  Marshall understands Gus' system very well now...made a huge mistake but feel it may be a blessing in disguise...he needed to get knocked down a notch or two.  He has worked hard in the off season to improve his passing and, with our receivers returning, just a little bit better can show huge improvements on the scoreboard.

Good, can be great, stable of running backs.  Corey Grant and Cameron Payne offer a good 1-2 punch of inside and outside running.  Peyton Barber was the player of the spring and suffered an ankle sprain...he may be a breakout player, but think he is a relief back right now.  Once he learns how to pass block and the schemes, Freshman Roc Thomas may pass them all.  He and Korliss Marshall remind me of each other in their high school films.

Solid Line Play on both sides.  At the end of the year, this offensive and defensive line will stack up with anyone.  The playcaller, Reese Dismukes, may be the smartest center in the game.  Because of that, I am less concerned with the shuffle in the line to replace Robinson and Kozan.  Braden Smith will be a starter before the year is over...so will Frank Ragnow Hog Fans.

The DL is solid..not spectacular.  The return of 5th year senior Jeff Whitaker helps a lot in the inside.  I am skeptical of the DE right now but feel they will be solid.

I will put our WR corp up against anyone.  I love being able to put 6-2 and 6-4 across the field in every rotation.  Dacquille Williams is probably one and done, but I will have a helluva good time watching him.  I think he will be special..and if you focus on him too much, Coates, Bray, Ray will make you pay.  Our H-back, TE combination of Fulse and Uzomah  will be more than servicable.

I really like our coaching staff.  Everyone here knows that Malzahn is as good an offensive playcaller as their is.  But, I really like having Ellis Johnson as the DC.  In every job he has taken, his 1st to 2nd year improvement is marked...I see nothing to prove that wrong this year.  I think we gameplan and adjust as well as anyone.

The Bad:

For all the special athletes Auburn has recruited lately, LB has not been on of them.  Tre Williams will be a good one...but he is 1/2 year away.  McKinsey and Frost are nice...but none strike fear in your heart like a good LB should. Justin Garrett may be good at the Star...but he has never made it through a year healthy.  I'm from Missouri here, SHOW ME

Secondary.  This time next year, I'll be fine...but not this year.  We lost some key players and leaders in Whitehead and Davis.  We have no identity there right now.  A good receiving corp will make us pay if that doesn't happen.  I worry about Ole Miss, SC, and Georgia and the corp they bring.

Special teams.  How many times did Stephen Clark pin a team inside the 5???  Not there this year.  Cody Parkey was ice water.  Not there.  I get the sweats thinking about this aspect.  Daniel Carlson better be a stud.

Being the hunted rather than the hunter.  Yeah, its an intangible...but will the team be hungry?  You like to think so, but will complacency creep into this team?  For sure, there will be a circle around any game.

The Schedule:

Arkansas
San Jose State
At Kansas State
La Tech
LSU
At Mississippi State
South Carolina
At Ole Miss
Texas A&M
At Georgia
Samford
At Bama

Brutal just to look at it, but if we have to play that, it sets up well.  Kansas State is a trap game for sure, but we get a bye before we play them.  We get a few more days of rest before La Tech and LSU.  The cowbell game at MSU is worrisome for sure.  We have another bye before South Carolina comes in to Auburn.  Then, the game I hate...Ole Miss.  I don't like the matchup at all but it does come after they play LSU where I hope the Bengal Tigers rough em up.  We finish with A&M, Georgia, Samford and Bama.  I think we will lose a game in that stretch for sure.

Prediction:  With some breaks 10-2 and a chance to play in Atlanta and in the Final Four.  We could actually be a better team than last year and still be 9-3.

There you have it.   

[AubFaninArk]

I'm sorry but I have to address this point because it kills me.

Alabama had their second-string kicker attempt a 57 yard field goal.

If you don't have enough sense to put a returner on that attempt, you don't have any business being a football coach at any level.

Every single Division I coach would have done the exact same thing.

Whitehead originally was back deep...but the Auburn coaches felt that Davis had the best chance of taking it to the house and made the change.  If every coach would have done the same thing, why didn't the "best coach in all of football" put some fast people on the field to stop it.  "Nothing but fat guys"

[fakebobholt]

Thanks, man. Nicely done. If you read my Arkansas preview on this board, Missouri is one of the teams I saw as being better than expected.

mauk is a very good qb. I think the team goes as he does. I hope they dont luck up and win the east again, that was a fluke and they got awful mouthy. FL and SC need to put it on them this year and hopefully we can end their season with a loss. I like the qb though

[31to6]

This was written by a barner, so I'm shocked at the objectivity.


5 Reasons Auburn Should Be Worried About Arkansas, Part 3

http://flywareagle.com/2014/08/01/5-reasons-auburn-worried-arkansas-part-3/

+1

Great read. Thank you very much for posting.

Everyone who is in doubt about CBB needs to read part 4: http://flywareagle.com/2014/08/04/5-reasons-auburn-worried-arkansas-part-4/

[Jek Tono Porkins]

Whitehead originally was back deep...but the Auburn coaches felt that Davis had the best chance of taking it to the house and made the change.  If every coach would have done the same thing, why didn't the "best coach in all of football" put some fast people on the field to stop it.  "Nothing but fat guys"

Do I really have to answer this question or are you just that daft?

For a kicker, most of the game is mental.

What message does it send to your kicker if, during a field goal attempt, you send out speed guys instead of big fat guys?

Since you don't seem too bright, I guess I'll have to spell it out for you:

It says to the kicker, "We have zero confidence that you're going to make this kick."

[AubFaninArk]

I'll chip in with the top worries at Auburn.

Number 1: The biggest risk Auburn is taking. Redshirt freshman Daniel Carlson (recruited by the previous coaching staff) is the new placekicker and punter. Carlson is the only freshmen in NCAA football who is both kicker and punter for his team. Two teams in FBS did this last season. Two years ago, this kid was a converted soccer player kicking for a Class 3A charter school in Colorado. I don't care how physically talented he is. Doing this is a terrific mental and emotional challenge.

Dead on target.  Cold Sweats.

Number 2: Pass rush. Auburn had 32 sacks in 14 games last season. The top two sack artists were Dee Ford (NFL) and Carl Lawson (injured). Sophomore end Elijah Daniel (6-2, 263) is expected to be the primary rusher. He had 2.5 sacks last season, 1 in SEC play. This sack issue might be even bigger in the Arkansas game, when the Tigers are essentially going with four defensive tackles up front.

Gabe Wright was actually 3rd in sacks with Daniels right behind him.  Of course there will be a drop due to losing Dee Ford and Lawson.  Lawson will be back perhaps by A&M...I am not terribly concerned since the one thing Rodney Garner seems to always have is a good pass rush.

You can't really go by stats. For example, Auburn's scorer was very generous with hurries. He found that the Tigers had 110 hurries (supposedly, forcing the QB to throw too quickly) vs. 25 for the opposition. Let me compare this with Alabama, for example. Their scorer found 44 QB hurries. How about last year's best pass rushing team, Missouri? Only 62 hurries. Auburn claimed they had two reserves with more hurries than Mizzou's top two sack artists. Riiiight.

Number 3: Offensive line. They will probably be good before long, but starting out, Auburn has to deal with a lot of changes. Left tackle Shon Coleman is 22 years old but has never started. He played in seven games last season but did not get to do much pass protection. Coleman is strong and talented; Arkansas might have an edge in his first start, throwing Trey Flowers at him.

As a freshman and sophomore, Patrick Miller started 14 games at right tackle, but he lost that job after five games in 2013 due to an off-field transgression. Before that, Miller was promoted in Auburn's lost 2012 because starter Avery Young got hurt.

This year, Young was moved to RG in a shuffle after veteran Alex Kozan went down with an injury. Young, still a sophomore after a medical redshirt, replaced Miller at RT in 2013 and kept the job for the last nine games. Now the guards are Young and senior Chad Slade, who moved from RG to LG.

Did Miller stand much of a challenge to win the RT position? Auburn lists third-year sophomore Robert Leff as the second teamer. His experience is limited to special teams. More of a long-term prospect.

At best, this line has to get used to a lot of changes.

If we lost Dismukes, our center, I would be really concerned, but, as the playcaller on the line, I think we will be servicable early and very good down the stretch.  Swanson will be harder to replace than most think.

Number 4: Secondary. The top Auburn DBs in SEC play last season were Ryan Smith (gone), Jermaine Whitehead, Chris Davis (gone), Robenson Therezie (double-secret probation) and Jonathon Mincy (missing as much/little of the Arkansas game as Malzahn can get away with). Starting SS Johnathan Ford is suspect, backed by a juco transfer whose head is swimming right now.

The initial starter at boundary corner is tweener Joshua Holsey, a junior who was in and out of the starting lineup for two seasons. Other side, the cover guy, is junior Jonathan Jones, who missed the first half of last season due to injury and has one career start (as a nickel back). Behind him is a guy converted after three years as a wide receiver.

Last year's secondary was head-and-shoulders above this one. In SEC games, Auburn gave up 60% completion, 274 yards per game, 13 TDs vs. 8 INTs. That's eighth in completion %, mid-pack in TD/INT, 11th in yards allowed per attempt. And that was with a pass rush Auburn doesn't have anymore.

I wouldn't say head and shoulders better...but would say where our secondary finished last year is better than where we currently are. 

Number 5: Running backs. Auburn in 2013 had two players in the top 15 of SEC-only rushing, Tre Mason and Nick Marshall. One is gone, the other getting his hand slapped in game one. Arkansas had two, Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams. Auburn clearly did not sign anyone good enough to come in and start. This year's starters were bit players in past SEC games. It's possible that the Malzahn Magic will turn two off backs into stars. He made Mason (5-8, 207) look awesome. But at least Mason had been a 1,000-yard rusher in 2012 and a stud kick returner as a freshman. One wonders how soon Malzahn will start fiddling with the running back rotation.

Peyton Barber was the best running back in the spring but got a high ankle sprain in A-Day game and you are forgetting 5* Roc Thomas who may surpass them all once he learns the schemes.  We agree to disagree that running back is a concern at Auburn.

[AubFaninArk]

Do I really have to answer this question or are you just that daft?

For a kicker, most of the game is mental.

What message does it send to your kicker if, during a field goal attempt, you send out speed guys instead of big fat guys?

Since you don't seem too bright, I guess I'll have to spell it out for you:

It says to the kicker, "We have zero confidence that you're going to make this kick."

Whatever...no need for insults there buddy. 

[BPsTheMan]

You hit the nail on the head.   Malzahn is a perfectionist and will leave no stone unturned (kind of like putting a returner back on field goal attempt last year). AU will be well prepared.

you've been on here since 2004 and you're rooting for Auburn

it's obvious you live in Springdale

[Biggus Piggus]

I have no problem with anyone disagreeing with my take. Make your call. I made mine. We go from there and see what happens.

[crimsonaudio]

While I'm not sure I qualify as an intelligent poster...

I think Auburn will be a very good team this year - the OL should be solid again, and the skill players are in place to gash teams with Malzahn's offense. That said, Auburn was a LOT of luck away from having a 6-6 (or worse) season last year - does that lucky streak continue?

It looks like Arkansas' starting DL is very light, averaging in the 260 range, if I'm not mistaken. While they might be quick (I'm sure they're not slow), that doesn't bode well against a decent OL that runs zone blocking.

From everything I'm hearing, Auburn's defense might be even worse than last year, and with Bielema having another year to install (and instill) his program and attitude into the team, I expect Arkansas to play much, much saltier than last year. I expect it to look like a different team, honestly. If the OL can exert its will against an Auburn DL that shouldn't be as good as last year, the running game should work well, which essentially shortens the game.

I think Auburn likely wins this one, but I'd not be shocked if the Razorbacks pulled off a 'shocker' - Bielema is a good coach and all the sleight of hand in the world goes out the window when you're punched in the mouth.

RTR

[Theolesnort]

For Auburn, opening at home is a major advantage. It is hard to quantify the benefit, but for starters, Malzahn depends heavily on friendly treatment from the game officials. They have to cooperate if he's going to engineer any advantage in pace of play + prevention of substitutions. Arkansas's defense will be much better when it can substitute in a normal manner.

How will Rogers Redding's new point of emphasis impact the officials at Auburn?

[Biggus Piggus]

Arkansas can average 320 at defensive tackle if necessary. They are going with quickness for starters.

[Hawgfan27]

Arkansas can average 320 at defensive tackle if necessary. They are going with quickness for starters.

I think this is because of coach smith's reliance on blitzing and pass rushing similar to rutgers. Hopefully our linebackers can step up in a big way because I believed they will be showcased much more in this offense.