What the Pundit's Don't See

[Hog N Bama]

Oh, there is a furniture store in College Station that has a free furniture deal if the Aggies beat SCar by 10 or more points. Between now and Wednesday, anything you buy (no limit on $ amount) will get a refund with that result.

The Ole Ball Coach is gonna smoke ya'll 

[The NewEra]

Good analysis. Of course, I am trying to temper my optimism right now because we open our season on the road against the defending SEC champ. If we were at home this year, I would feel better about it.

Also, I don't think any of our coaches have ever coached a game at Jordan-Hare. It's not that big of a deal, I guess, but I have been to a few games there and it is very intimidating. We need to get off to a good start.

Also, fyi, Johnson is starting on the DL in place of Hodge. I know you said you wrote that earlier, but that is one experimental change on the DL that could be a wild card for us.

I look forward to seeing the Johnson experiment play out.

[Russ22]

The Ole Ball Coach is gonna smoke ya'll 

Likely..

[Hog N Bama]

Likely..

And so will the Hogs in the Big D

[lefty08]

And so will the Hogs in the Big D

likely..

[JIHawg]

Good post New Era.

[Vantage 8 dude]

Key injuries are the result of Poisson process. That is, in any given year, a team can start the season expecting a certain number of injuries (whether key or not). The number of injuries may match, exceed, or fall short, but that is what a fan would call good or bad luck.

I also think a bad coach (poor conditioning program) or being out of position can lead to more injuries - that would be making your own bad luck, I guess.

Ahh........but even with the absolute BEST of conditioning injuries can and do happen. Yes, with the speed and size of today's players injuries on almost every team are definitely going to happen. However, I go back to what you originally said about good teams making their own luck (and bad teams as well). So to use that particular reasoning if 'Bama, LSU, Stanford, FSU and other "pretty good teams" are hit with an unusually high number of injuries they've made their own "good fortune". I mean your line of reasoning being what it is and all......just saying.

[Vantage 8 dude]

Luck doesn't necessarily have anything to do with injuries.  When people talk of the "ball bouncing there way," it sometimes can be taken literally.  Take Auburn / Georgia game last year.....that was luck.

Don't try to use logic or reason with ole Russ. He's an Aggie and we all know TAM's power of reasoning is second only to a jellyfish.

[razorbackkid]

Don't try to use logic or reason with ole Russ. He's an Aggie and we all know TAM's power of reasoning is second only to a jellyfish.

lol.

[Russ22]

I fail to see how a high number of injuries would equate to good fortune. I could see how an injury to a starting QB (say Johnny Manziel) against Auburn last year could lead some to believe that was "bad luck" because that they ended up losing. They might even say it is likely that the Aggies would have won had that not happened.

It is just the sort of BS that we tell ourselves as fans to make us feel better. However, what really happened is that we lost - it wasn't luck (good or bad). It is the nature of the game - injuries and weird bounces happen. The injuries can happen despite the best conditioning, etc. It is probabilistic process and when you don't have them, you consider it lucky.

I am in the Parcells camp with regard to record. You are what your record says you are. Luck or bad fortune has nothing to do with it. To talk about being a play or two away from a different result is just wrong. If you were good enough, you would have made those plays.

[intelligence]

I fail to see how a high number of injuries would equate to good fortune. I could see how an injury to a starting QB (say Johnny Manziel) against Auburn last year could lead some to believe that was "bad luck" because that they ended up losing. They might even say it is likely that the Aggies would have won had that not happened.

It is just the sort of BS that we tell ourselves as fans to make us feel better. However, what really happened is that we lost - it wasn't luck (good or bad). It is the nature of the game - injuries and weird bounces happen. The injuries can happen despite the best conditioning, etc. It is probabilistic process and when you don't have them, you consider it lucky.

I am in the Parcells camp with regard to record. You are what your record says you are. Luck or bad fortune has nothing to do with it. To talk about being a play or two away from a different result is just wrong. If you were good enough, you would have made those plays.

I agree, and ill add that going into most games you can tell immediately who will when 9/10 times. 2011 game in Dallas is a good example. Am was making some great plays but it always seemed like the hogs were in control. Same as Alabama vs Georgia in sec championship. It just always felt like bama was in control, even with georgia being step for step

[Russ22]

Ahh........but even with the absolute BEST of conditioning injuries can and do happen. Yes, with the speed and size of today's players injuries on almost every team are definitely going to happen. However, I go back to what you originally said about good teams making their own luck (and bad teams as well). So to use that particular reasoning if 'Bama, LSU, Stanford, FSU and other "pretty good teams" are hit with an unusually high number of injuries they've made their own "good fortune". I mean your line of reasoning being what it is and all......just saying.

Vantage, I guess I should state outright that I don't believe in luck. The things that people attribute to luck (injuries and/or bounces) are just a part of the game. Good teams can appear lucky because they end up winning while bad teams will appear unlucky because they end up on the wrong side of the score.

[Vantage 8 dude]

I fail to see how a high number of injuries would equate to good fortune. I could see how an injury to a starting QB (say Johnny Manziel) against Auburn last year could lead some to believe that was "bad luck" because that they ended up losing. They might even say it is likely that the Aggies would have won had that not happened.

It is just the sort of BS that we tell ourselves as fans to make us feel better. However, what really happened is that we lost - it wasn't luck (good or bad). It is the nature of the game - injuries and weird bounces happen. The injuries can happen despite the best conditioning, etc. It is probabilistic process and when you don't have them, you consider it lucky.

I am in the Parcells camp with regard to record. You are what your record says you are. Luck or bad fortune has nothing to do with it. To talk about being a play or two away from a different result is just wrong. If you were good enough, you would have made those plays.

Certainly not attempting to equate B.A. to little Johnny M. However, to intimate that Brandon's injury was somehow less of a blow to the Hogs as was Manzel's to the Agonies is ludicrous. Heck, B.A.'s shoulder problem pretty much doomed whatever chances the team might have had to show anything respectable for the year. And no, I am NOT saying that injuries are good fortune in any way UNLESS some player who may not have played otherwise us offered the opportunity to step in and plays over and above what the original player might have. What I AM SAYING is that injuries rarely have anything to do whether or not a team is good; it usually has far more to do with whether or not a team, any team, is fortunate.

BTW while I do agree that you if you're good you usually make the plays that help you achieve success, don't try to sell me that line of garbage by Parcells as it applies to the deflected "hope and prayer" that helped AWbarn defeat UGA. That was a total fluke no matter how you want to spin it.

[Russ22]

You can take the Auburn - Georgia play however you like. The two safeties both went for the pick and deflected the ball up in the air. The receiver maintained concentration and made a play. He still had to catch it and run.

A bad team is never in position to win that game. The stats show that the game was a basically a toss up. A bounce decided the game, but there may have been other bounces earlier in the game that went Georgia's way. We typically don't (at least I don't) remember one way or another because that last play is what sticks with us.

[Vantage 8 dude]

You can take the Auburn - Georgia play however you like. The two safeties both went for the pick and deflected the ball up in the air. The receiver maintained concentration and made a play. He still had to catch it and run.

A bad team is never in position to win that game. The stats show that the game was a basically a toss up. A bounce decided the game, but there may have been other bounces earlier in the game that went Georgia's way. We typically don't (at least I don't) remember one way or another because that last play is what sticks with us.

Whatever: you call the UGA play "skill"; I call it totally bogus "luck". And never the two shall meet........

[Russ22]

Not skill, just part of the game. To me, the funny bounces are an essentially an unbiased coin. Good teams overcome "bad" bounces, poor teams are buried by them. I guess it is a matter of perspective.

[Oklahawg]

No reason to not embrace some optimism at this point:

1. no major injuries in fall camp.
2. only one casualty from the summer (Otha Peters)
3. better-than-advertised early results from recruits at key positions
4. if you have to play Auburn, play them early before the offense gets it's timing down.

Why not? For the next 7 days we can allow ourselves to dream just a bit. Nothing suggests to me we can't get to bowl eligibility. Won't take much success early in the year to see some momentum build and push the win total higher.

[The NewEra]

No reason to not embrace some optimism at this point:

1. no major injuries in fall camp.
2. only one casualty from the summer (Otha Peters)
3. better-than-advertised early results from recruits at key positions
4. if you have to play Auburn, play them early before the offense gets it's timing down.

Why not? For the next 7 days we can allow ourselves to dream just a bit. Nothing suggests to me we can't get to bowl eligibility. Won't take much success early in the year to see some momentum build and push the win total higher.

You hit on a key point for me. Some early success and this team may take off with some very early confidence.

[The NewEra]

I'm starting to wonder if they are questioning Dismukes foot quickness. They seem to really think Taiwan can give us an edge at that tilt nose spot.

It's going to be fun watching this play out at the tilt position.  It will certainly keep their offense from double teaming Flowers and Philon both since they will be opposite the Tilt.

I can't wait to see some of Rob Smith's scheming play out.

[LZH]

I just went and trolled around on texags.com, and they are surprisingly realistic about the SCar game. Their board reads alot like ours. Cautious optimism with light doses of blatant homerism and gloom/despair.

It is much better than the other SEC boards that I've seen before.

[whiskeyNwater2.0]

There is nothing wrong with optimism and hoping for the best. The problem comes when you ignore reality. The reality is that our defense could be coached by Coach Lombardi and Coach Ryan from the 85 Bears and we would still be one of the least talented defenses in the SEC. Last year our defense was small and slow. We signed one the most underwhelming DB & LB classes in our history. Do we actually believe that defense we watched last year was one season and a new coaching staff away from being a good defense? Really?

The OP laid out his reasons for why our defense should be much better and he basically talked about how good the new coaches were as the reason. Any coach will tell you that without Jimmy's and Joe's it doesn't matter how good a coach is. Seriously 8-4? Bama, Aub, UGA, LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, A&M, Tex Tech, Mizzou all have better rosters than we do. Before you disagree Answer this, did you give the other 13 teams the same benefit of the doubt when analyzing their roster? If you are honest with yourself you know that after 12 games we should have between 3 and 6 wins. We will only be favorites in 3 games. We will have to surprise A&M, Tech, Mizzou and the state of Mississippi for additional wins.

[The NewEra]

There is nothing wrong with optimism and hoping for the best. The problem comes when you ignore reality. The reality is that our defense could be coached by Coach Lombardi and Coach Ryan from the 85 Bears and we would still be one of the least talented defenses in the SEC. Last year our defense was small and slow. We signed one the most underwhelming DB & LB classes in our history. Do we actually believe that defense we watched last year was one season and a new coaching staff away from being a good defense? Really?

The OP laid out his reasons for why our defense should be much better and he basically talked about how good the new coaches were as the reason. Any coach will tell you that without Jimmy's and Joe's it doesn't matter how good a coach is. Seriously 8-4? Bama, Aub, UGA, LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, A&M, Tex Tech, Mizzou all have better rosters than we do. Before you disagree Answer this, did you give the other 13 teams the same benefit of the doubt when analyzing their roster? If you are honest with yourself you know that after 12 games we should have between 3 and 6 wins. We will only be favorites in 3 games. We will have to surprise A&M, Tech, Mizzou and the state of Mississippi for additional wins.

The reality is, different people have different versions of reality.  You see only what you want to see to make your points and disregard other very critical components.  Because you have a varying view on this subject doesn't in itself make you wrong.  However, you are wrong and we shall see that play out over the course of this season.

[Vantage 8 dude]

There is nothing wrong with optimism and hoping for the best. The problem comes when you ignore reality. The reality is that our defense could be coached by Coach Lombardi and Coach Ryan from the 85 Bears and we would still be one of the leader talented defenses in the SEC. Last year our defense was small and slow. We signed one the most underwhelming DB & LB classes in our history. Do we actually believe that defense we watched last year was one season and a new coaching staff away from being a good defense? Really?

The OP laid out his reasons for why our defense should be much better and he basically talked about how good the new coaches were as the reason. Any coach will tell you that without Jimmy's and Joe's it doesn't matter how good a coach is. Seriously 8-4? Bama, Aub, UGA, LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, A&M, Tex Tech, Mizzou all have better rosters than we do. Before you disagree Answer this, did you give the other 13 teams the same benefit of the doubt when analyzing their roster? If you are honest with yourself you know that after 12 games we should have between 3 and 6 wins. We will only be favorites in 3 games. We will have to surprise A&M, Tech, Mizzou and the state of Mississippi for additional wins.

Well perhaps I'm just being naive. However, while I acknowledge that our SEC brethren will generally be more talented than us, I still believe we WILL be better than last season. Remember we were barely beaten in three games last year (including MSU and LSU). Besides, karma and any kind of good luck just points to us not going "o for" in the conference again this season.

[whiskeyNwater2.0]

Well perhaps I'm just being naive. However, while I acknowledge that our SEC brethren will generally be more talented than us, I still believe we WILL be better than last season. Remember we were barely beaten in three games last year (including MSU and LSU). Besides, karma and any kind of good luck just points to us not going "o for" in the conference again this season.

I agree we have improved. Improving doesn't necessarily move us past other teams. I said we could get to 6 wins. That means we have to beat 3 SEC teams or tex Tech on road and 2 SEC games. Many analysts agree that this is the strongest SECw we have ever seen. The big boys LSU, Bama, Aub have always had great talent. The real difference is the middle and bottom. Mississippi St has always had big boys who play good defense. They usually play physical with a decent run game. They also usually finish near the bottom of the SEC due to poor QB play. Not this year. Many expect their QB to be the breakout QB of the SEC this year. If nothing else he is a playmaker and not the liability we have come to know. Ole Miss has put together 2 exceptional recruiting classes and an average class last year and now have one of the more talented rosters in the SEC. A&M is the team that Hog fans are sleeping on and not paying attention to. We all ignore the fact that their last 3 recruiting classes have been ranked 6, 11, 15 nationally. They have the 2nd most desired coach in the SEC by NFL teams. Someone mentioned they lost their 1st Rd OL so now they are screwed. They failed to mention they have the #1 OL prospect for next years draft and talent at every skill position. The one team I think we Match up well with is Mizzou. I think they are overrated. I don't see how anyone can look at our roster and schedule and intelligently predict more than 6 wins best case.

The reality is, different people have different versions of reality.  You see only what you want to see to make your points and disregard other very critical components.  Because you have a varying view on this subject doesn't in itself make you wrong.  However, you are wrong and we shall see that play out over the course of this season.

Reality isn't debateable. Reality is we were a 3 win team last year. We have the same QB we had last year. We have the same weak WR corp we had last year. Best case scenario we are middle of pack offense in SEC. Reality is a total of 0 of the new coaches that came in will play a down of football. The same DB's who were torched last season will be back this year. Oh except Eric Bennet who graduated and was one of our better players. Our LB corp is just as bad last year and we signed 0 kids who are expected to make major a impact and the most physically talented veteran LB kid we had quit the team because he wasn't smart enough to pick up scheme. But hey. Please tell me what I am missing. Please explain what you know that has been missed by every person who covers CFB?

[Russ22]

I agree we have improved. Improving doesn't necessarily move us past other teams. I said we could get to 6 wins. That means we have to beat 3 SEC teams or tex Tech on road and 2 SEC games. Many analysts agree that this is the strongest SECw we have ever seen. The big boys LSU, Bama, Aub have always had great talent. The real difference is the middle and bottom. Mississippi St has always had big boys who play good defense. They usually play physical with a decent run game. They also usually finish near the bottom of the SEC due to poor QB play. Not this year. Many expect their QB to be the breakout QB of the SEC this year. If nothing else he is a playmaker and not the liability we have come to know. Ole Miss has put together 2 exceptional recruiting classes and an average class last year and now have one of the more talented rosters in the SEC. A&M is the team that Hog fans are sleeping on and not paying attention to. We all ignore the fact that their last 3 recruiting classes have been ranked 6, 11, 15 nationally. They have the 2nd most desired coach in the SEC by NFL teams. Someone mentioned they lost their 1st Rd OL so now they are screwed. They failed to mention they have the #1 OL prospect for next years draft and talent at every skill position. The one team I think we Match up well with is Mizzou. I think they are overrated. I don't see how anyone can look at our roster and schedule and intelligently predict more than 6 wins best case.


Reality isn't debateable. Reality is we were a 3 win team last year. We have the same QB we had last year. We have the same weak WR corp we had last year. Best case scenario we are middle of pack offense in SEC. Reality is a total of 0 of the new coaches that came in will play a down of football. The same DB's who were torched last season will be back this year. Oh except Eric Bennet who graduated and was one of our better players. Our LB corp is just as bad last year and we signed 0 kids who are expected to make major a impact and the most physically talented veteran LB kid we had quit the team because he wasn't smart enough to pick up scheme. But hey. Please tell me what I am missing. Please explain what you know that has been missed by every person who covers CFB?

I essentially said this and was called an Aggie troll.  Good luck with this attempt though.

[Vantage 8 dude]

I agree we have improved. Improving doesn't necessarily move us past other teams. I said we could get to 6 wins. That means we have to beat 3 SEC teams or tex Tech on road and 2 SEC games. Many analysts agree that this is the strongest SECw we have ever seen. The big boys LSU, Bama, Aub have always had great talent. The real difference is the middle and bottom. Mississippi St has always had big boys who play good defense. They usually play physical with a decent run game. They also usually finish near the bottom of the SEC due to poor QB play. Not this year. Many expect their QB to be the breakout QB of the SEC this year. If nothing else he is a playmaker and not the liability we have come to know. Ole Miss has put together 2 exceptional recruiting classes and an average class last year and now have one of the more talented rosters in the SEC. A&M is the team that Hog fans are sleeping on and not paying attention to. We all ignore the fact that their last 3 recruiting classes have been ranked 6, 11, 15 nationally. They have the 2nd most desired coach in the SEC by NFL teams. Someone mentioned they lost their 1st Rd OL so now they are screwed. They failed to mention they have the #1 OL prospect for next years draft and talent at every skill position. The one team I think we Match up well with is Mizzou. I think they are overrated. I don't see how anyone can look at our roster and schedule and intelligently predict more than 6 wins best case.


Reality isn't debateable. Reality is we were a 3 win team last year. We have the same QB we had last year. We have the same weak WR corp we had last year. Best case scenario we are middle of pack offense in SEC. Reality is a total of 0 of the new coaches that came in will play a down of football. The same DB's who were torched last season will be back this year. Oh except Eric Bennet who graduated and was one of our better players. Our LB corp is just as bad last year and we signed 0 kids who are expected to make major a impact and the most physically talented veteran LB kid we had quit the team because he wasn't smart enough to pick up scheme. But hey. Please tell me what I am missing. Please explain what you know that has been missed by every person who covers CFB?

So on the one hand you start out by saying you think we've improved but then in your second rant you go on to harp on the fact that we have the same back defensive 7, our LBs are just as bad as last year, WE SIGNED 0 KIDS WHO ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE A MAJOR A IMPACT and the most physically talented veteran LB kid we had quit the team BECAUSE HE WASN'T SMART ENOUGH TO PICK UP THE SCHEME (your exact words) and last, but not least, we HAVE THE SAME WEAK WR CORP WE HAD LAST YEAR (although many have played not played a down of live ball for the Hogs). Of course that's not counting the apparent distain you have for most the defensive staff, although you have nothing to judge that on as only one-Randy Shannon-that any real input to last year's play.

So which is it? I mean is it the possible (up to) 6 wins that you close out the first portion of your post with or is it the latter which contains all the rants about "nothing has changed for the better", "woe is us", "only our opponents have improved but not us" tone? I mean really.....have you ever heard the observation of sometimes folks "talk  out of both sides of their mouth"? Or is it more a case of multiple (dual) personalities from which you suffer? Inquiring minds really are curious (and concerned).

[Vantage 8 dude]

I essentially said this and was called an Aggie troll.  Good luck with this attempt though.

Russ, the problem is that in reality you ARE an Agony troll.

[scruf]

There is no such thing as we were 1 play here or there. Thats not how it played out. If thats the case we could say we were a couple missed tackles from scoring more td's in every game. Everything you pointed out was strickly a hope thing. You hope or think those areas got better. This same line of thinking was used at the begenning of last year. We all know how that turned out. The pieces are falling in line but that kind of change and turn around isnt an overnight thing. If BA doesnt have a breakout year we are in trouble. If we cant pass we will get stuffed at the line. Most of the success rides on his shoulders, im not sold on him but we dont have another option.

just because some of us arent predicting such a fast turn around doesnt make us any less of a fan. It had to be shown we can do it before we can make predictions of beating auburn.

Here are the facts behind the hope:

Offense-
1. Is Brandon Allen healthy? Yes.
2. Is the WR corps bigger and faster and deeper than last year? Yes.
3. Is there more talent and athleticism and depth on the OL compared to last year? Yes.

Defense-
1. Will our opponents' WR constantly benefit from 7-10 yard cushions? No.
2. Is the LB group taller, faster and heavier than at any time in the last 20 years? Yes.
3. Is Robb Smith an upgrade over Chris Ash? Trick question but a downgrade would be mathematically impossible.

There are numerous reasons to predict a healthy amount of wins this year. The team is going to upset one of either Auburn, Alabama, LSU or Georgia. (I don't really see OM, MSU, Mizz, A&M or TTU as "upsets," just good wins)

[judgeroyswine]

We had to be the MOST unlucky team in the country last year.   All the bounces went against us.  I can't see that happening 2 years in a row.

Knowing Arkansas' history, if anyone could pull it off we could. However, I see us being better, but maybe only slightly so.

[razorbackkid]

Knowing Arkansas' history, if anyone could pull it off we could. However, I see us being better, but maybe only slightly so.

I didn't recognize you without your avatar. 

[whiskeyNwater2.0]

So on the one hand you start out by saying you think we've improved but then in your second rant you go on to harp on the fact that we have the same back defensive 7, our LBs are just as bad as last year, WE SIGNED 0 KIDS WHO ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE A MAJOR A IMPACT and the most physically talented veteran LB kid we had quit the team BECAUSE HE WASN'T SMART ENOUGH TO PICK UP THE SCHEME (your exact words) and last, but not least, we HAVE THE SAME WEAK WR CORP WE HAD LAST YEAR (although many have played not played a down of live ball for the Hogs). Of course that's not counting the apparent distain you have for most the defensive staff, although you have nothing to judge that on as only one-Randy Shannon-that any real input to last year's play.

So which is it? I mean is it the possible (up to) 6 wins that you close out the first portion of your post with or is it the latter which contains all the rants about "nothing has changed for the better", "woe is us", "only our opponents have improved but not us" tone? I mean really.....have you ever heard the observation of sometimes folks "talk  out of both sides of their mouth"? Or is it more a case of multiple (dual) personalities from which you suffer? Inquiring minds really are curious (and concerned).

I'll try once more. Yes I think we will be improved. Last year we had a brand new coaching staff. This year we should see our current group of players play better than they did last year. Unfortunately our roster isn't very good compared to the rest of the SEC. We should be improved from the abortion that was last year but that doesn't mean we are an 8 win team. If the kids on our roster play their best, we have minimal injuries and we make some plays at the end of games then best case scenario we win 6 games. I said nothing about our staff that would suggest I have disdain for them. This wasn't their roster when they got here last year. They are basically responsible for the incoming group of freshman and the rest of the guys are Petrino/JohnLSmith guys.

I'm not ranting or harping on anything. I am making specific points to justify my logic. You and OP are prematurely crediting the new coaches as miracle workers while citing zero players as being reason to explain how this team could ever reach 8 wins.

Yes I think our Hogs should be very happy if we reach 6 wins. I say that because we have made no major additions at key positions. (QB, LB, WR, DB) If you disagree please enlighten me. I feel that if the returning guys from the 2013 roster made huge improvements it is reasonable to expect a 6 wins a as opposed to the 3 we had last year. How is that talking out of both sides? My guess is you have little to add in an effort to challenge my position and will stick to attacking me without adding any actual counterpoints to support your position. If you found my analysis of last years roster and the incoming players so far off please provide examples to back up your position. My guess is you won't.

[jkstock04]

There is nothing wrong with optimism and hoping for the best. The problem comes when you ignore reality. The reality is that our defense could be coached by Coach Lombardi and Coach Ryan from the 85 Bears and we would still be one of the least talented defenses in the SEC. Last year our defense was small and slow. We signed one the most underwhelming DB & LB classes in our history. Do we actually believe that defense we watched last year was one season and a new coaching staff away from being a good defense? Really?

The OP laid out his reasons for why our defense should be much better and he basically talked about how good the new coaches were as the reason. Any coach will tell you that without Jimmy's and Joe's it doesn't matter how good a coach is. Seriously 8-4? Bama, Aub, UGA, LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, A&M, Tex Tech, Mizzou all have better rosters than we do. Before you disagree Answer this, did you give the other 13 teams the same benefit of the doubt when analyzing their roster? If you are honest with yourself you know that after 12 games we should have between 3 and 6 wins. We will only be favorites in 3 games. We will have to surprise A&M, Tech, Mizzou and the state of Mississippi for additional wins.

What I see a lot of on here is people assuming we will be improved from last year to this year (not a terrible assumption IMO)....while at the same time assuming all the other conference foes will get worse or at best stay the same.

[lefty08]

Never heard that statement, thanks

[Vantage 8 dude]

I'll try once more. Yes I think we will be improved. Last year we had a brand new coaching staff. This year we should see our current group of players play better than they did last year. Unfortunately our roster isn't very good compared to the rest of the SEC. We should be improved from the abortion that was last year but that doesn't mean we are an 8 win team. If the kids on our roster play their best, we have minimal injuries and we make some plays at the end of games then best case scenario we win 6 games. I said nothing about our staff that would suggest I have disdain for them. This wasn't their roster when they got here last year. They are basically responsible for the incoming group of freshman and the rest of the guys are Petrino/JohnLSmith guys.

I'm not ranting or harping on anything. I am making specific points to justify my logic. You and OP are prematurely crediting the new coaches as miracle workers while citing zero players as being reason to explain how this team could ever reach 8 wins.

Yes I think our Hogs should be very happy if we reach 6 wins. I say that because we have made no major additions at key positions. (QB, LB, WR, DB) If you disagree please enlighten me. I feel that if the returning guys from the 2013 roster made huge improvements it is reasonable to expect a 6 wins a as opposed to the 3 we had last year. How is that talking out of both sides? My guess is you have little to add in an effort to challenge my position and will stick to attacking me without adding any actual counterpoints to support your position. If you found my analysis of last years roster and the incoming players so far off please provide examples to back up your position. My guess is you won't.

I too will be happy to reach at least six wins. However, what I can't agree with you about pertains to several issues:
First of all, while I'll agree that from top to bottom no one will confuse our overall talent with the 'Bamas or LSUs of the world, there ARE some kids on the Hogs that can definitely play in the SEC. I personally believe that some of the new players, especially at WR, will be a major upgrade (would be very hard NOT to be) over last year; however, that will only be determined for sure when we get into the season. I also realize that while the overall list of kids at LB and DB are pretty much the same, it's just very possible that both the "coaching up" and the different (more aggressive) coverage and attacking approach by Coach Smith and the rest of the defensive staff COULD overcome some of the lack of straight out physical gifts/talents of the players.

Secondly, as I stated elsewhere, while I seriously doubt anyone will end up comparing B.A. with P. Manning or a Tom Brady, I HOPE that with the added year of maturity, knowledge of the offense and HOPEFULLY better overall receiving corps Brandon can noticeably step up his play. It would certainly help to also have him stay healthy as a change from '13. I believe that if the OL gels as we hope and expect a great deal of the pressure any QB feels scrambling for his life will also eliminated.

Lastly, while I realize no HC or staff like to put a lot of emphasis or stock in the contribution by new players, I do believe we have some like Eugene, Ramsey, Hollister, and perhaps even Day who COULD end up eventually helping us elevate our over all play. Personally I'm not going to throw in the towel and say that none of these kids (or others) couldn't end up making decent contributions.

So in the end it all comes down to what each of us think about a number of positions and challenges this team will face. One thing, however, I can absolutely be sure of: I don't know for sure, neither do you, or anyone else for that matter. That's why the   adage of "That's why they play the game" has been around for eons. I also suspect that's also a reason behind the observation "That things are never quite as bad, or as good as they seem......the reality almost always lies between". So let the games begin so that (the) reality can, indeed, be seen. 

[three hog night]

Here are the facts behind the hope:

Offense-
1. Is Brandon Allen healthy? Yes.
2. Is the WR corps bigger and faster and deeper than last year? Yes.
3. Is there more talent and athleticism and depth on the OL compared to last year? Yes.

Defense-
1. Will our opponents' WR constantly benefit from 7-10 yard cushions? No.
2. Is the LB group taller, faster and heavier than at any time in the last 20 years? Yes.
3. Is Robb Smith an upgrade over Chris Ash? Trick question but a downgrade would be mathematically impossible.

There are numerous reasons to predict a healthy amount of wins this year. The team is going to upset one of either Auburn, Alabama, LSU or Georgia. (I don't really see OM, MSU, Mizz, A&M or TTU as "upsets," just good wins)

You hit on all the major improvements.  I would add that the Offense will become more diverse with a healthy BA to run ALL the playbook.   We have a rare 2 deep rotation in the back 7 that will pay dividends too.

[The NewEra]

You hit on all the major improvements.  I would add that the Offense will become more diverse with a healthy BA to run ALL the playbook.   We have a rare 2 deep rotation in the back 7 that will pay dividends too.

There is one more major thing here that a lot of people seem to be overlooking, or just not giving enough credit to in my opinion. 

That being this will be the first time in four years that this team will have the same Head Coach and Offensive Coordinator.  To me that is the single most important area to hang our hat for a significantly improved team.  Add to that the chemistry that this team has obviously developed with each other and that we now have only the players who want to be here under this coaching staff.

three hog night, I'm not directing this at you, I'm just piggy backing on your post.

[judgeroyswine]

I didn't recognize you without your avatar. 

Fixed it.

[thirrdegreetusker]

•This is the first time in four seasons this team will have the same head coach. 

Four?
2011 = same coach as previous year
2012 = new coach
2013 = new coach
2014 = same coach as previous year

This season will be the first time in the last three seasons that we will have the same head coach.

[code red]

I agree with all of the posters examples of reasons to be optimistic.  However, realistically if the Hogs get their doors blown off on Saturday...it is going to be a blow that will be hard to overcome.  This team needs something good to happen and that doesn't mean a win.  They need to show improvement.  A close loss will be fine for this teams Psyche but, a blow out will leave a lingering seed of doubt.  Plus...their will be immediate quality film on how to attack us....esp Tech...who although not similar to Auburn...but does run the spread attack.

[smb]

Very good post.

[onebadrubi]

If BA is able to stay healthy the entire year than I think that bodes very well for Arkansas to have 5 or more wins and beat the over.

He was pretty tough to come back early from that separated shoulder and play without injuring it again.  I'm convinced that his aggressiveness was affected the remainder of the season as well as his passing accuracy which got slowly better by year end.

He has to play aggressively this year for us to win in the SEC.  If he goes back to pass, he's got to be able to punish the defense if they leave him an open lane up the middle to scramble for 10 yards.

My concern is, can he play aggressively like we need him to and still stay relatively healthy?

Injuries can happen to anyone, even the strongest players get hurt, so there is always a little bit of luck in whether your QB gets hurt or not.

I agree 100%, and my post history will prove it.  This is not against you, but I am going to take your comments and use them to show other people something.  I hope that is ok...

Look at BA now.  Look at thim at this point last year.  please find ONE part of the Offense that is not noticeable better around him right now?  Receiver?  Leaps and bounds better, we may not have childs, williams, adams, and wright, but we DO have Wilson back (5 year guy), Hollister (experience, strong, big), All American TE, Jared Cornelius which shows flashes of being the closest to wright and adams, JoJo, oh and don't forget Hatcher who has SEC speed, just Pulaski Tech Hands last year, and I had to come back and add Drew Morgan (my incompetence).  The RB's?  You think williams, collins, and Marshall are not stronger, faster, and know the play book leaps and bounds above last year?  Do I even need to mention the OL?  I think the OL should be self explanatory.  TE?  Our TE's are improved, I hope to see sprinkle in the flats and running a few more seem routes this year.  I think sprinkle is a vastly over looked player in our system. 

Heck, we could even say the D can help out BA more this year. 

[DeltaBoy]

I believe Gus lost his lucky rabbits foot at the NC game.

[Science Fiction Greg]

Four?
2011 = same coach as previous year
2012 = new coach
2013 = new coach
2014 = same coach as previous year

This season will be the first time in the last three seasons that we will have the same head coach.

Truncating his quote changes it from true to false.  The full quote was true:

"this will be the first time in four years that this team will have the same Head Coach and Offensive Coordinator."