If any team in CFB can sneak up on Bama it will be our Hogs

[Al Boarland]

I noticed not one person gives us a W in this  http://www.hogville.net/yabbse/index.php?topic=571207.0 (season predictor) thread and I understand why, but hear me out...

Given the past two seasons we are in the perfect position to sneak up on them.  They won't be taking us seriously and we play them right after they go to Ole Miss. Having them at home really helps us.

[LZH]

Love the optimism, but I'll have a better chance of growing boobies by game time.  I just don't see it...at all.  I think you'd need alot of team speed to sneak up on 'Bama, and we don't have any - yet.

[Biggus Piggus]

The number one reason why Alabama might be vulnerable is their quarterback situation. They do not have an obvious starter, and if they have enough problems there, the Tide could have a mess in progress by the time we play them. The transition occurs while Lane Kiffin is in his first season as OC.

Unfortunately, Arkansas's not sure to be any better than Bama is at QB. The Tide also is better than the Hogs at their strongest position, TB. Alabama is very good at WR and TE too.

The Oline and Dline comparisons are probably a lot closer than most people would think.

A few possible issues: Alabama is likely to start a first-year juco on the Dline and a true freshman at left OT. They don't have the same level of awesome talent at LB and DB that we're used to seeing.

But a whole lot of things will have to go haywire for the Tide + perfectly for the Hogs before this game begins to look like a close one.

[Al Boarland]

Love the optimism, but I'll have a better chance of growing boobies by game time.  I just don't see it...at all.  I think you'd need alot of team speed to sneak up on 'Bama, and we don't have any - yet.

We added a x-factor in K. Marshall.

[LZH]

You've been sho'nuff tootin' Marshall's horn lately, I hope he is that good.  A good, really fast RB is fun to watch.

I could see us having a chance to beat pretty much anyone on our schedule if we got all the breaks......but not Alabama.  Not yet.

[Jek Tono Porkins]

I don't think we have the talent level to compete with Alabama yet and we won't for a while. If we were to win the game, we would need some serious help on the form of some Alabama turnovers, good field position on most of our drives, a blocked punt or a blocked kick, etc.

[Al Boarland]

You've been sho'nuff tootin' Marshall's horn lately, I hope he is that good.  A good, really fast RB is fun to watch.

I could see us having a chance to beat pretty much anyone on our schedule if we got all the breaks......but not Alabama.  Not yet.

You act like there is Bama and then everybody else. That's just not the case. They have question marks just like everyone else. Sure they recruit well, but so does everyone we play. There isn't that much of a diffrence between 1-10 in recruiting.  Saban has shown he is vulnerable if you can keep the game close.  That's no easy task, but far from impossible.

[LZH]

You act like there is Bama and then everybody else.

For us, it pretty much is.  And I did say "pretty much" everyone on our schedule...meaning that I highly doubt we're gonna jump up and beat an Auburn, Alabama, Georgia, LSU, or even A&M.  But yeah, I do think Alabama's talent is still head & shoulders above the rest of the country.

[Al Boarland]

I don't think we have the talent level to compete with Alabama yet and we won't for a while. If we were to win the game, we would need some serious help on the form of some Alabama turnovers, good field position on most of our drives, a blocked punt or a blocked kick, etc.

If you think that then you are saying we don't have a chance with any team that recruits top 10.  Are you saying we don't have a chance against LSU? Auburn? UGA?

[Biggus Piggus]

Alabama's lowest scoring games:

2009 - 12, Tennessee; 20, South Carolina; 22, at Ole Miss; 24, LSU; 26, at Auburn.
2010 - 21, at LSU, at South Carolina; 23, Ole Miss; 24, Penn State, at Arkansas; 27, Auburn.
2011 - 6, LSU; 21, vs. LSU in BCS title game; 24, at Mississippi State; 27, at Penn State.
2012 - 21, at LSU; 24, Texas A&M.
2013 - 20, at Mississippi State; 25, Ole Miss.

The Tide has improved on offense, but they still have a couple of low-scoring games every season. Last year, MSU and Ole Miss stayed close by not giving up any long passes + getting turnovers. They still couldn't score though.

This year, it seems like most of their great talent is on offense. The defense is waiting for some of its top talent to mature. My hope is that the Razorbacks can break the three-year near-shutout streak and score some points. Our chances of stopping their offense depend on how good the Tide is at the QB position. We might battle their Oline OK, but their receivers and backs are terrific. Something would have to go bad wrong at QB to offset that talent.

[Al Boarland]

Alabama's lowest scoring games:

2009 - 12, Tennessee; 20, South Carolina; 22, at Ole Miss; 24, LSU; 26, at Auburn.
2010 - 21, at LSU, at South Carolina; 23, Ole Miss; 24, Penn State, at Arkansas; 27, Auburn.
2011 - 6, LSU; 21, vs. LSU in BCS title game; 24, at Mississippi State; 27, at Penn State.
2012 - 21, at LSU; 24, Texas A&M.
2013 - 20, at Mississippi State; 25, Ole Miss.

The Tide has improved on offense, but they still have a couple of low-scoring games every season. Last year, MSU and Ole Miss stayed close by not giving up any long passes + getting turnovers. They still couldn't score though.

This year, it seems like most of their great talent is on offense. The defense is waiting for some of its top talent to mature. My hope is that the Razorbacks can break the three-year near-shutout streak and score some points. Our chances of stopping their offense depend on how good the Tide is at the QB position. We might battle their Oline OK, but their receivers and backs are terrific. Something would have to go bad wrong at QB to offset that talent.

I'm not bold enough to say that we could beat them if they play their best game.  Obviously, it would take a perfect game from us, but you could also say that about several teams on our schedule.

[go hogues]

They'll lose to Ole Miss, MSU and Auburn but not against us.

I'll honestly be happy just getting on the board against them. That's not happened since 2011.

[Al Boarland]

They'll lose to Ole Miss, MSU and Auburn but not against us.

I'll honestly be happy just getting on the board against them. That's not happened since 2011.

O-fer on the MS schools!?!?!?!  That's a fireable offense right there.

[OS2 (SW) Razor Back]

The Bama coaches will take us serious on that you can rely. If we beat Awbarn then watch out. Our guys will have confidence in spades. The War Eagle/Tigger game will go along way in determining how we play Bama this year imho.

[MJ2]

Coming off 9 losses in a row, it won't be hard for any victory to be called a "sneak up".

[Al Boarland]

The Bama coaches will take us serious on that you can rely. If we beat Awbarn then watch out. Our guys will have confidence in spades. The War Eagle/Tigger game will go along way in determining how we play Bama this year imho.

I can't see us winning that one, but crazier things have happened.  IMO, they will be better than Bama this season. 

They have a monster schedule, so they could lose a couple games.  Bama has it pretty easy, so they could be sleep walking by the time the come to our house.

[GolfnHog]

Love the optimism, but I'll have a better chance of growing boobies by game time.  I just don't see it...at all.  I think you'd need alot of team speed to sneak up on 'Bama, and we don't have any - yet.

LZH, I don't always agree with you but I certainly like to "hear" your perspective, though I think you hold that whole tweeter thing way to close to ya that it's unhealthy

What's scary is I'm starting to see this topic as you do. Damn, I need a drink!

[LZH]

The War Eagle/Tigger game will go along way in determining how we play Bama this year imho.

I've read where guys think that if Auburn beats the hell out of us that it will screw up our confidence and maybe even wreck the season right off the bat.  I don't think so at all.  We'll probably get smacked around, but we'll get over it.

But I do agree with ya that playing well at Auburn could be an indication of how we compete the rest of the year.

[31to6]

The number one reason why Alabama might be vulnerable is their quarterback situation.

If BA is a 60-65% completion 3:1 TD:Int QB, *and* if Alabama can't get their QB rolling it could be a low-scoring game where our physicality and special teams gives us a chance for a win.

However, I think there is a good chance we can't score at all while they wear down our defense where it is thin and they take command in the 2nd half.

I don't expect a blow-out, but we are not ready to go toe-to-toe with the team Alabama has fielded the last 4 years.

If they are down more than expected and we improve more than expected with have a chance, but I still see a 28-17 type loss.

I want us to win em all, but the ? ? ? ?'s are still too big at too many positions this year.

[LZH]

LZH, I don't always agree with you but I certainly like to "hear" your perspective, though I think you hold that whole tweeter thing way to close to ya that it's unhealthy

What's scary is I'm starting to see this topic as you do. Damn, I need a drink!

Sounds like you've already had one...or a few.                             

[I BLEED RBack RED]

Love the optimism, but I'll have a better chance of growing boobies by game time.  I just don't see it...at all.  I think you'd need alot of team speed to sneak up on 'Bama, and we don't have any - yet.

If u do grow boobies i got dibs on first motor boat!

[Biggus Piggus]

I'm not bold enough to say that we could beat them if they play their best game.  Obviously, it would take a perfect game from us, but you could also say that about several teams on our schedule.

Not so much this season. Alabama's the only one that is on that level.

Closest to that after Bama is maybe LSU. Not sure they're going to be any better than Ole Miss and MSU, which are at a strong point in their talent cycles. But OM/MSU don't have the same depth.

Auburn's very good at WR and QB, and the OL will be good. RBs are only decent. Defense is not on the same level as the other contenders.

Georgia was on track to be excellent, but they keep losing players. OL is unimpressive. Defense has problems in the secondary.

[LZH]

If u do grow boobies i got dibs on first motor boat!

Ha!  I knew that was gonna backfire on me....it's what I get for being a smart azz.

[Biggus Piggus]

I've read where guys think that if Auburn beats the hell out of us that it will screw up our confidence and maybe even wreck the season right off the bat.  I don't think so at all.  We'll probably get smacked around, but we'll get over it.

But I do agree with ya that playing well at Auburn could be an indication of how we compete the rest of the year.

If we manage to cover their receivers half-well and get a turnover or two, it would be a very positive sign.

[Al Boarland]

If BA is a 60-65% completion 3:1 TD:Int QB, *and* if Alabama can't get their QB rolling it could be a low-scoring game where our physicality and special teams gives us a chance for a win.

However, I think there is a good chance we can't score at all while they wear down our defense where it is thin and they take command in the 2nd half.

I don't expect a blow-out, but we are not ready to go toe-to-toe with the team Alabama has fielded the last 4 years.

If they are down more than expected and we improve more than expected with have a chance, but I still see a 28-17 type loss.

I want us to win em all, but the ? ? ? ?'s are still too big at too many positions this year.

I haven't started to look too deep into Bama because I take it one game at a time, but here are a few things I know or I guess I should say are my opinion.

-They will be stout on D-line (haven't been in a while)
-Some drop off at LB (Brains of the system)
-Still have some questions at corner
-O-line has questions
-Very strong at RB
-TE and WE are also very good
-Huge question mark at QB
-Questionable specialist

[Biggus Piggus]

Reading the NFL scouting stuff on Alabama, sounds like their defensive linemen tend to be either pass rushers or run stoppers, not both, so they will situation sub a lot.

[Al Boarland]

Not so much this season. Alabama's the only one that is on that level.

Closest to that after Bama is maybe LSU. Not sure they're going to be any better than Ole Miss and MSU, which are at a strong point in their talent cycles. But OM/MSU don't have the same depth.

Auburn's very good at WR and QB, and the OL will be good. RBs are only decent. Defense is not on the same level as the other contenders.

Georgia was on track to be excellent, but they keep losing players. OL is unimpressive. Defense has problems in the secondary.

I have to disagree in that Auburn is just like Bama, but on the other side of the ball.  They have a very talented RB group.  I'm not sure where you are getting your info on that point.  They don't need a dominant D just like Bama doesn't need to score a lot of points.  Auburn has recruited very well on D, but they are young.  It will take some time for them to develop that talent. 

LSU has question marks ALL over the field.  QB/WR/DB and the DL. 

So, in my mind it's Bama/Auburn and then LSU.  Hell, Bama has more questions than Auburn, but I'll give them a slight bump due to talent and coaching.

[dwcherr]

They'll lose to Ole Miss, MSU and Auburn but not against us.

I'll honestly be happy just getting on the board against them. That's not happened since 2011.

Alabama has beaten Ole Miss for 10 years straight.

Alabama has beaten Mississippi State for 6 straight.

Alabama has NEVER, in the history of college football, lost to both Mississippi teams in the same year.

You think this is going to be one of the worst Alabama teams of all time?

I do not...

[Al Boarland]

Reading the NFL scouting stuff on Alabama, sounds like their defensive linemen tend to be either pass rushers or run stoppers, not both, so they will situation sub a lot.

They have gone after more quick-twitch guys to try to slow down no-huddle offenses.  Saban is all about his sub packages for down and distance and the HUNH prevents that from happening, so he has adjusted his recruiting.  It may take a couple years for that to start showing, but it doesn't really help us since we run a pro-style and huddle up.

[LZH]

If we manage to cover their receivers half-well and get a turnover or two, it would be a very positive sign.

Man ain't that the truth.  And tackle well...seems like we've had problems tackling for years now.  I could live with a double digit loss as long as we don't look so pitiful in the process.  I'd much rather see us lose 21-14 than lose 42-35 if you catch my drift - I don't wanna see us 'outscored' anymore.

[razorbackkid]

After the last couple games against Bama they have no fear of the Hog.

They need to fear the Hog.  Maybe this year we'll see that they do.

:razorback:

[Jek Tono Porkins]

If you think that then you are saying we don't have a chance with any team that recruits top 10.  Are you saying we don't have a chance against LSU? Auburn? UGA?

Um, no, actually I'm not saying that all. Let me say it again: I don't think we have the talent level to compete with Alabama yet.

You know, the team that has the best head coach in America.
The team that has gone 21-3 in the SEC over the last three seasons.
The team that has had the #1 recruiting class six out of the last seven years.
The team that has beat us to the tune of 52-0 twice in the past two years.

Why does me saying that we don't have the talent level to COMPETE (not talent equivalent to) with Alabama YET (implying that we will eventually get to the point where we will have talent capable of competing with Alabama) mean that we don't have a chance with any team that recruits top ten? How does one logically progress from my position to yours? Show your work.

[Hollywood_HOGan45]

We have a chance vs bama but no shot whatsoever vs auburn.


Gotcha

[Cinco de Hogo]

Anything can happen but it hasn't happened against Bama in awhile.  If it does it will be one of those day that you can't explain and leaves you shaking you head.  My guess would be that Kiffin will have muddled up the offense and we win a 9-6 ball game.

[BatesvilleHOG]

Kiffin's offense is going to be make or break for Bama. If they can't handle the transition or produce a QB to run it, they're in for a barn burn of a season just like Arkansas last year.

[Al Boarland]

Um, no, actually I'm not saying that all. Let me say it again: I don't think we have the talent level to compete with Alabama yet.

You know, the team that has the best head coach in America.
The team that has gone 21-3 in the SEC over the last three seasons.
The team that has had the #1 recruiting class six out of the last seven years.
The team that has beat us to the tune of 52-0 twice in the past two years.

Why does me saying that we don't have the talent level to COMPETE (not talent equivalent to) with Alabama YET (implying that we will eventually get to the point where we will have talent capable of competing with Alabama) mean that we don't have a chance with any team that recruits top ten? How does one logically progress from my position to yours? Show your work.

No problem. You must think there's a significant difference in the #1 class and the #10 class. There's not. You think Saban is the best coach in America. He's not. Is he the best recruiter? Yes. Can he build a hell of a program? Yes. Is he the best on game day? No. Has he played a down East opponent every year while dodging UGA? Yes. Has he backed into the Natty? Yes.

So, while he is accomplished as a coach he is not any of the things you claim he is. At least not to the degree of which you state. The BEST coach in America resides in South Carolina. Do you think Saban could do what Spurrier has done in USCe? Heck no.

[PygmalionEffect]

I noticed not one person gives us a W in this  http://www.hogville.net/yabbse/index.php?topic=571207.0 (season predictor) thread and I understand why, but hear me out...

Given the past two seasons we are in the perfect position to sneak up on them.  They won't be taking us seriously and we play them right after they go to Ole Miss. Having them at home really helps us.

Right.

So the poster that predicts 5 wins this year thinks we are in "perfect position" to sneak up on bama.

What are your other 4 wins?

Let me guess, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State?

I know none of your five are aubarn, since that's your team.

[Al Boarland]

We have a chance vs bama but no shot whatsoever vs auburn.


Gotcha

I didn't say "no shot". I said we have a better chance against Bama than Auburn. IF Bama has answers to all the questions in my post they will be good. Auburn has less questions. They are going to score points. We know that. Will their defense be better in year 2? It has to be. We expect our D to be better, right? We expect our O to be better in year 2, right? That's when you see the most improvement.

I stand by my statement. We'll probably drop both, but I could see us sneaking up on Bama.

[lefty08]

Love the optimism, but I'll have a better chance of growing boobies by game time.  I just don't see it...at all.  I think you'd need alot of team speed to sneak up on 'Bama, and we don't have any - yet.

Better include pics!

[Al Boarland]

Right.

So the poster that predicts 5 wins this year thinks we are in "perfect position" to sneak up on bama.

What are your other 4 wins?

Let me guess, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State?

I know none of your five are aubarn, since that's your team.

No, I don't have Auburn in the 5 because that game would be in the smallest percentage chance of winning. We have a shot at UGA and LSU, but not a great one. My OP about the Bama game has more to do with when we play them and our last two games then how successful our season will be.

[lefty08]

We do get bama at home this year so its not impossible. Strange things happen for road favorites that point in the schedule every year. It could happen, but probably not

[PygmalionEffect]

No, I don't have Auburn in the 5 because that game would be in the smallest percentage chance of winning. We have a shot at UGA and LSU, but not a great one. My OP about the Bama game has more to do with when we play them and our last two games then how successful our season will be.

No it's not.  It would actually be one of our better chances to get a win if we were playing at home.

You're overlooking the mental aspect of the game.  Bama is in our heads.  We get psyched out by bama for some reason and I don't know when that spell is going to wear off.

On the other hand, aubarn does not intimidate the Hogs, if anything, we are in their heads.

[Al Boarland]

No it's not.  It would actually be one of our better chances to get a win if we were playing at home.

You're overlooking the mental aspect of the game.  Bama is in our heads.  We get psyched out by bama for some reason and I don't know when that spell is going to wear off.

On the other hand, aubarn does not intimidate the Hogs, if anything, we are in their heads.

You mean Bama is in your head. It's fine if they are, but it's bold statement to think they are in the heads of our players. They don't fear any team.

[Bacons Rebellion]

What's our biggest  one-game turnaround from one year to the next against the same opponent?

I can find:
46 point improvement vs Texas A&M from 1952 to 1953
46 point improvement vs Auburn from 2010 to 2011
44 point improvement vs Tulsa from 1967 to 1968
44 point improvement vs SMU from 1976 to 1977
44 point improvement vs South Carolina from 1994 to 1995
42 point improvement vs Baylor from 1974 to 1975
41 point improvement vs Texas A&M from 1953 to 1954
40 point improvement vs Oklahoma St from 1950 to 1951

Lookin' for that 53 point swing somewhere...

Oh, wait. Found it.

104 point improvement vs Oklahoma from 1918 to 1919.

[devildoghawg]

If you honestly believe that Nick won't have his boys ready for us and 100% in the game, you don't know jack about college football.  You don't get to his level of success by letting your players look past games.

[Music City Hog]

Threads like this are embarrassing.  We have lost the last two games 104-0 and you're talking about beating Bama?  Go home Al, you're drunk. 

[Al Boarland]

If you honestly believe that Nick won't have his boys ready for us and 100% in the game, you don't know jack about college football.  You don't get to his level of success by letting your players look past games.

Signed,

Oklahoma Sooners

[Jek Tono Porkins]

No problem. You must think there's a significant difference in the #1 class and the #10 class. There's not.

Care to back that up with some facts? Keep in mind, the top ten spots are subject to change...lots of teams have nabbed a top ten class over the past seven years. But there's only been one that has been at the top for six of those years.

You think Saban is the best coach in America. He's not. Is he the best recruiter? Yes. Can he build a hell of a program? Yes. Is he the best on game day? No. Has he played a down East opponent every year while dodging UGA? Yes. Has he backed into the Natty? Yes.

What are you talking about? He has played a down East opponent every year while dodging UGA? He plays the same rotating schedule as everyone else. He smashed Georgia in 2008 and beat them in the SECCG in 2012. What else is he supposed to do? The only time he "backed into" the BCSNCG was in 2011...which he won. In 2009, Bama annihilated #1 Florida in the SECCG?

So, while he is accomplished as a coach he is not any of the things you claim he is. At least not to the degree of which you state. The BEST coach in America resides in South Carolina. Do you think Saban could do what Spurrier has done in USCe? Heck no.

There's no way to determine whether or not Saban could do what Spurrier has done at USCe.

Your thought process needs some serious work.

[Hogarusa]

Bama isnt losing 3 division games, no way no how.

We should have been able to sneak up on them last year considering they beat us 52-0 the year before and 38-14 before that.

Sure they are breaking in a new QB with a new OC but if there are any struggles, all they have to do is hand off, option, sweep, toss it, screen, and pitch it to Yeldon, Henry, and Drake behind their massive OL.

[Al Boarland]

Bama isnt losing 3 division games, no way no how.

We should have been able to sneak up on them last year considering they beat us 52-0 the year before and 38-14 before that.

Sure they are breaking in a new QB with a new OC but if there are any struggles, all they have to do is hand off, option, sweep, toss it, screen, and pitch it to Yeldon, Henry, and Drake behind their massive OL.

Have you read anything about their OL? They have holes to fill.