If I Told You...

[Augustus]

The reason that Alabama has steamrolled us and Auburn does not (and likely will not) is not because of their offense styles but rather their defense capabilities.

We can and will be able to move the ball on Auburn and generate scoring opportunities. If you can score, you can win. Even if you are the underdog you can get a turnover or a big ST play, a couple big penalties--some sort of break--and be in position to pull out a 4th quarter victory if you can move the ball and have some control over the clock.

Against Alabama we have spent large stretches of the game punting from inside our own 40.

Very good point here... ESPNU has been playing the top games of 2013, one of which was AU vs A&M.

I watched that game again yesterday, and saw some holes in both of their defenses.  The thing was, they had the offense to compensate for it.

Now, Auburn may still have the offensive weapons to cover their defensive weaknesses; A&M? I'm not so sure.

[Cinco de Hogo]

I don't think the Georgia game will be decided upon by the crowd at DWRRS vs WMS, but rather the team that Richt has right now, and the talent that left.

Then again, I'd much rather playing UGA in Fay or LR, than at Georgia

Agree, that's why I had rather play them with six more four star player. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

...I could see the future, and the tea leaves tell me that Arkansas is going to win 4 SEC games this year, who you got?

1. Auburn
2. Texas A&M
3. Ole Miss
4. Missouri

I know most here don't agree that we have a shot at Auburn this season, but what about the others? I think Ole Miss is the toughest of the four I just posted. How about you guys? Any you think should replace one of those four? Maybe LSU? I don't see victories at all with Alabama, Georgia or Mississippi State (as much as it pains me to write off a loss against a damn Mississippi School).

I think that this season (perhaps like any other) there are probably wins, potential wins and likely losses. This is not confined to SEC games.

Wins                            Potential Wins                      Likely Losses
Nichols State                 Texas A&M                          Auburn
Texas Tech                   Miss State                           Alabama
N. Illinois                       LSU                                   Georgia
UAB                             Ole Miss
Missouri

JMO

[scruf]

AU is garbage. They will implode this year. Hogs win going away. The wheels on the bus stop going round and round. All of the "me me me" players on AU are going to cannibalize each other once their season goes south. Arkansas will be the first of their many losses. AU sucks. Go HOGS!

[HiggiePiggy]

Wins

Nichols state
UAB
Northern Illinois

Potential wins

Texas tech
Texas A&M
Ole Miss
Mississippi State
LSU
Georgia
Missouri

Losses

Alabama
Auburn

[Cinco de Hogo]

Wins

Nichols state
UAB
Northern Illinois

Potential wins

Texas tech
Texas A&M
Ole Miss
Mississippi State
LSU
Georgia
Missouri

Losses

Alabama
Auburn

Agree with this, so if win all the win games all we have to do is 50% in the potential games to make a bowl game.  Seems doable to me.

[HogFanatic]

It amazes me that people have games against Mississippi State and Georgia as easier games than Auburn.

Mississippi State is going to be TOUGH this year, guys.
Georgia is ALWAYS tough.

Yes, Auburn played for it all this past year, but we are going to get them at early season form. That will factor heavily in our favor. We are gonna get Mississippi State and Georgia in mid-stride this year. Those games are likely losses, IMO.

[Phil D]

Wee have next to no chance of beating Auburn. We just don't have the horses to matchup with their style, especially in the first game of the season.

they wont have the Defense this year to matchup with our style :razorback:

[Poker_hog]

Wee have next to no chance of beating Auburn. We just don't have the horses to matchup with their style, especially in the first game of the season.

Au is loaded on offense and will score on us but their D is gonna be starting 5 new guys.  I could see us controling the line of scrimmage on offense and eating up some time of possession especially if the o-line transfers pan out.  Couple of turnovers and breaks go our way we could win.  Although vegus hates our chances:  au-21

[Bacons Rebellion]

Texas A&M
Ole Miss
Mississippi St.
Missouri

[HiggiePiggy]

Auburn ran it down our throats last year and we were out of the game early in the 3rd quarter.  All they are going to do is run it down our throats again except now they will have a little better passing game to go with them running it down our throats. 

I think we are down 7-10 at halftime and like last year they run away with it in the second half and we lose by 17-20.

[870hogfan]

The game will be close very close.

[HiggiePiggy]

As long as Arkansas covers the spread I will be happy.

[Cinco de Hogo]

 I have no clue about the Auburn game!  My problem is that I know Gus can coach and motivate but I think we still need more time to tell if he is all that.  Kinda like CBB, difference being CBB is our coach.

[Boardon Hamsay]

I'd say our best chance to get 4 SEC wins are:

1. aTm- new QB, no Evans, will be more run focused and questions on D continue
2. LSU- home game, young QB, they play Bama before us, and we have 2 weeks to prepare.
3. Ole Miss- home game, they could be looking ahead to the Egg Bowl, and we could have some nice momentum coming off a win against LSU
4. Missery- while a road game, it is a new rivalry game, could have bowl eligibility on the line and if we can improve like we did last season, we could turn some of the closer conference losses into Ws.  I'd take finishing the season with 3 straight conference wins and a bowl berth as a good season.

[Lake City Hog]

In response to the OP I think our best 4 chances in the conference are:
Auburn------- Anything can happen in game 1.
Ole Miss------ We should gain enough from Home Field to make the difference.
Texas A&M--- This should be the game that opens some eyes.
LSU---------- I do believe that past history matters and we usually play LSU tuff!

To look at the whole season:
Probable Wins--------------Potential Wins--------------Probable Losses

Nichols state                     Mississippi State                  Georgia
UAB                                 Ole Miss                              Missouri
Northern Illinois                 LSU                                   Alabama
Texas Tech                       Auburn                                           
Texas A&M

Win the ones that I see as Probables and split the Potentials and we have a 7 win season 8 with a good showing in a Bowl!

[Augustus]

It amazes me that people have games against Mississippi State and Georgia as easier games than Auburn.

Mississippi State is going to be TOUGH this year, guys.
Georgia is ALWAYS tough.

Yes, Auburn played for it all this past year, but we are going to get them at early season form. That will factor heavily in our favor. We are gonna get Mississippi State and Georgia in mid-stride this year. Those games are likely losses, IMO.

I keep reading posters here claim Auburn struggles in the early season. But... don't we just as much?

What evidence is there to suggest we come out strong, in game 1, besides historically beating a weak non-conf team?

[PonderinHog]

I keep reading posters here claim Auburn struggles in the early season. But... don't we just as much?

What evidence is there to suggest we come out strong, in game 1, besides historically beating a weak non-conf team?

I'm trying to remember one and I'm not having much luck.  Now I remember!

[PonderinHog]

USC ? Oh, oops.............

Yes, in 1974.

[Lake City Hog]

I think that the point is that Game 1 is pretty much a crap shoot when 2 higher quality teams meet. Neither team has the kinks worked out yet and it could very well all boil down to who gets the "lucky break".

That is the one thing about the new SEC Network/TV contract that can really screw-up the whole season for some "Big Name" teams. Lose game 1 to a conference foe and your whole season could well be shot!

[PonderinHog]

To be fair, we destroyed a Boise St team in 2002 that went on to be 12-1 for the year. That's a pretty good season opener.

And a home game.  Just like '74.

[PonderinHog]

Yeah, I gave up looking for what I would call a quality season opening road win.

Maybe we can pull a 2006 type game on them.  We have the backfield.  Get a couple early turnovers and capitalize off them.  They might cave...

[MuskogeeHogFan]

It amazes me that people have games against Mississippi State and Georgia as easier games than Auburn.

Mississippi State is going to be TOUGH this year, guys.
Georgia is ALWAYS tough.

Yes, Auburn played for it all this past year, but we are going to get them at early season form. That will factor heavily in our favor. We are gonna get Mississippi State and Georgia in mid-stride this year. Those games are likely losses, IMO.

As an early game, we are going need to be improved on defense and not allow Auburn to gain big chunks of yardage and play great special teams as well. If our offense can grind it out on the ground and complete enough passes to keep their LB's and Secondary backed off the LOS, I think we stand a pretty good chance against Auburn, though they are clearly the favorite going into the game.

As for the rest of the season, let's keep in mind that while other teams will improve as the season progresses, so will we, barring any key injuries. Here's hoping.

I think that as we improve and gain confidence, A&M, Miss State, LSU, Ole Miss and Missouri are all potentially winnable games. I doubt that we win them all but I could see us winning 2 or 3 of the 5. It's too bad that we don't get S. Carolina this year, I am going to miss that series.

[go hogues]

The only SEC game we have a potential shot at winning is A&M. The rest are going to be tough outs. We'll play some of them close and might even squeak out a win but I don't see us winning more than two conference games

[MuskogeeHogFan]

The only SEC game we have a potential shot at winning is A&M. The rest are going to be tough outs. We'll play some of them close and might even squeak out a win but I don't see us winning more than two conference games

That being said, we have a "potential shot" in every game we play. It will all come down to efficient execution on both sides of the ball and gain more T/O's than we give up. None of us at this point know exactly how all of that is going to play out.

[The Galloping Ghost]

In what universe do we have a better shot at Alabama?

Alabama has scored 104 points to our 0 in the past two seasons. I see absolutely no reason to believe we can beat that team this year. Auburn on the other hand...I saw a Razorbacks team last year that COULD compete with them...they just didn't get it done. Auburn pulled away a bit late in the game. But that game was at least competitive for the most part.

ETA: Not only football, but all competitive sports, are more about matchups than they are opposing teams win loss records. We clearly do not match up well with Alabama right now and we haven't for a few years.

We match up much better with Auburn.

The one we are playing in THIS season...I see all the "historical" reasons that we are trying to manufacture to bring about a sense of optimism...and that's alright...but there is a VERY good chance, with their experienced OL, their stable of very good RB's and another year with the same staff on BOTH sides of the ball, that they are going to be the best team in the SEC...period.

Do I think they will be...I really don't know...but I know that this line of thinking that they struggle early is simply reaching for low-hanging hope. Anybody remember last season...ULL? Samford for God's sake? Southern Miss...0-12 the previous season. We didn't come out of the gates blazing for sure.

Bama has MUCH more holes to fill this season than AU does. Bama choked out at the end of last year...there is concerns there...I know many close to the program. They might be the team to beat...or this might be another 2010 for them.

[three hog night]

Who we would beat if we won four sec games this year. (In order of likelihood)

1. A&M - we played them fairly tight last year. No Johnny or Evans this year and a bad defense
2. Mississippi St. - another team that we played somewhat well against last year. I think with improved qb play and a better defense we get it done this year.
3. Ole Miss - if we can control the pace of this game and have long drives to keep their offense off of the field, I think a win here is a real possibility.
4. Lsu - new qb and we always seem to play them tight. If our defense has improved from last year, we could do what we weren't able to do a year ago an finish them off.

I think one big key to our success this year will be whether we can finish drives with TDs rather than FGs or turnovers. There were so many times last year that we got in the redzone and just couldn't punch it in.

I can live with this list.   I think many of us want to beat AU so bad because of the drama on this board from Gus lovers.  I want us to beat AU to get us started off on a good note, but a close and competitive loss will be improvement.  We get Bama early enough with a new QB that he may make mistakes.  A&M and LSU could be the same with new QB's early in the season.

[OneTuskOverTheLine™]

Why are you so upset when someone says something about Auburn that doesn't fit your agenda? Auburn isn't thought of a heavy package run team like Bama, LSU, Stanford types. It's ok, we understand you love the HUNH, and they do a good job of putting more people at the POA.

They don't pound it.. They scoot it around..

[cosmodrum]

It amazes me that people have games against Mississippi State and Georgia as easier games than Auburn.

Mississippi State is going to be TOUGH this year, guys.
Georgia is ALWAYS tough.

Yes, Auburn played for it all this past year, but we are going to get them at early season form. That will factor heavily in our favor. We are gonna get Mississippi State and Georgia in mid-stride this year. Those games are likely losses, IMO.

We have trouble in Starkville when MSU isn't any good, let alone when they are actually decent.

I give us about a 10% chance in that game. We have a better shot at Ole Miss  and UGA.

[cosmodrum]

The only SEC game we have a potential shot at winning is A&M. The rest are going to be tough outs. We'll play some of them close and might even squeak out a win but I don't see us winning more than two conference games

I can see us beating Ole Miss. We should've beat them at their place last year and we have them in Fayetteville.

[1highhog]

...I could see the future, and the tea leaves tell me that Arkansas is going to win 4 SEC games this year, who you got?

1. Auburn
2. Texas A&M
3. Ole Miss
4. Missouri

I know most here don't agree that we have a shot at Auburn this season, but what about the others? I think Ole Miss is the toughest of the four I just posted. How about you guys? Any you think should replace one of those four? Maybe LSU? I don't see victories at all with Alabama, Georgia or Mississippi State (as much as it pains me to write off a loss against a damn Mississippi School).

I buy that list for a dollar.

[HiggiePiggy]

I can see us beating Ole Miss. We should've beat them at their place last year and we have them in Fayetteville.

It's possible, but they also have a bye week before facing us. 

[HogScoutMaster]

Its not going to be Auburn and it is not going to be A&M

[Phil D]

Its not going to be Auburn and it is not going to be A&M

Auburn is definitely a long shot, but I think we have a great chance to get a win in the A&M game

[MuskogeeHogFan]

No doubt I wouldn't just write us off in any game, I mean that is why they play the game instead of just looking at the teams on paper. BUT , we're gonna struggle this year in conference.

That's the prediction and it may be true, but until the games are actually played none of us, nor any of the prognosticators, have any idea what kind of hand we have actually been dealt. I'll wait and see.

[Biggus Piggus]

...I could see the future, and the tea leaves tell me that Arkansas is going to win 4 SEC games this year, who you got?

Give me Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Georgia and Texas A&M.

Really, though, I don't know which game will be more difficult, Georgia, Alabama or LSU.

Understand, Nick Saban has asked Lane Kiffin to run his offense. That is asking for trouble.

Georgia hired away Florida State's defensive coordinator. They keep shuffling. How many DCs since Richt has been there? Meanwhile, their talent level on the Oline isn't close to what it used to be.

LSU recruits like crazy, just like Bama. But they will have new starters at all the skill positions on offense. That seems tricky.

We have off weeks before Alabama and LSU.

[Bacons Rebellion]

And a home game.  Just like '74.

We beat SMU 26-0 in Dallas (on the road) to open the 1999 season. We also beat SMU 10-6 in Dallas to open the 1993 season.

If that's not solid evidence we will destroy Auburn, nothing is.

[PonderinHog]

We beat SMU 26-0 in Dallas (on the road) to open the 1999 season. We also beat SMU 10-6 in Dallas to open the 1993 season.

If that's not solid evidence we will destroy Auburn, nothing is.

Can't argue with that logic!   

[ijustpork]

I'll tell you what...

[PorkSoda]

This is strictly hypothetical and because it is I've got:

1. Auburn
2. Alabama
3. Texas A&M
4. Mizzou

I want a win against Auburn badly just so the Hogs can get the season started the right way.

Alabama, because we owe them big time.

My hatred for aTm runs deep and anything short of blowing them out game after game is just not good enough.

If the SEC wants to screw up a good thing that we had playing LSU the day after Thanksgiving then we should start this new series off on the right foot by dismantling Mizzou the last game of the season.

Remember, this is hypothetical and based on tea leaves.

Those are probably the top 4 teams I want to beat this season in that order as well

[HogScoutMaster]

man....remember when we made fun of Ole Myth and Hottie because he didnt win an SEC game.  Man those were the days

[Inhogswetrust]

The only SEC game we have a potential shot at winning is A&M. The rest are going to be tough outs. We'll play some of them close and might even squeak out a win but I don't see us winning more than two conference games

Heck YOU would say that even if the media chose us to win the NC!

[DoctorSusscrofa]

I think we beat the three Missies (Ole Miss, Miss St, Missouri) and Texas A&M if we win 4.

[Inhogswetrust]

It's possible, but they also have a bye week before facing us. 

Some coaches and players don't like to have those in certain situations or a specific week and it can vary. It can depend on how their season is going, the opponent, injuries, momentum, etc. Sometimes those Byes come at a good time and sometimes they don't.

[Inhogswetrust]

Its not going to be Auburn and it is not going to be A&M

Should I bet against the spread since you are so omnipotent.

[GlassofSwine]

 I think Auburn is going to be a tough out. They are at home, have a very good offensive line and some good running backs even without Mason. I wouldn't predict that as a win. If it was a home game for Arkansas than I would think we have a better shot. I think we could win, but I think it is unlikely.

  Best shots IMO.

Texas A&M
Miss State
Georgia
LSU 

Georgia and LSU will be tough but homefield advantage and both of them having 1st year starting QB's will help. I consider Ole Miss winnable but,  I think Ole Miss could be the surprise team in the SEC this year. I won't be surprised if they finish TOP 3 in the West. They also have an Open date on the 15th and we play LSU.