No one asked me . . . but . . .

[WizardofhOgZ]

With others starting to weigh in on their predictions, concerns, questions, etc. about the 2014 season, here are a couple I'll chip in with (FWIW) . . .

1)  In my mind, this is Brandon Allen's first year at QB.  Of course, that isn't true - technically.  But I believe last year is a throw away season that really doesn't give us any thing approaching a good read on his ability that we can project into this season and next.  Now, I understand why folks will do that - take his stats and performance from last year and attempt to project his performance this season off of those.  Indeed - if you knew nothing more, that would be the most logical thing to do.

But we do have more information.  Last year was Brandon's first significant live action, except for a thrown-to-the-wolves appearance against mighty Alabama at the nadir of the "Smile" regime.  In his first extended duty (last season), he looked "pretty good" if not great in his first two and a half games, hitting 60% of his passes and making some timely runs - and then he injured his shoulder.  He should have taken 3 or 4 games off and gotten healthy, but being a competitor (and with Arkansas having a total void behind him), he didn't.  It was pretty obvious that his arm was never the same after his hasty return.

And, of course, our team had other massive problems, heaping even more pressure on the QB position.  He was in no position to carry that type of load, but had no choice but to try.  The results were often hard to watch.

Now, I'm not necessarily predicting stardom for him.  He may end up not being "the one".  I'm just saying that I'm pretty much where I was at this time last year where BA is concerned - excited about seeing how he does and optimistic that he will perform at a level where QB won't be the issue this team doesn't win (if we don't).  I really feel there's a good chance his performance will be much better this year than last - assuming he stays relatively healthy.  I know a lot here have given up on him already.  I haven't.

2)  The kicking game is a lot larger part of the overall game than most fans realize.  I don't think it's an equal third (in modern day football), but it's probably 20-25% of the total effort/result, IMO.  We've been the beneficiary of outstanding kicking the last few years, with Breeding, Hocker and Hill.  Where we haven't been as strong is in the coverage and return teams (since the days of Felix and Joe).

With Sam returning, we should be solid in the punting game. At a place that has been blessed with a host of great kickers over the last 40 years, Hocker was arguably our best ever.  Especially when you combine his kickoffs to his FG and extra point efforts.  I'm anxious to see Cole Hedlund perform his placement chores.  Many are just taking for granted that he will come in and pick up where Zach left off.  Cole comes with a good pedigree - but - transitioning to the college game in front of 70-100K fans doesn't always just "happen".  It did for Zach, and we really need to hope that it does for Cole also.

The other aspects have more questions than answers.  It would seem that we have several candidates for return (both kickoff and punt), but really no one that has any skins on the wall at this level.  The first thing for any return man is that he MUST catch the ball consistently, which is not as much of a given as most suspect - especially in the punting game, where 4.4 missiles are descending upon you as you look up at the ball, waiting for it to arrive.  It will be interesting to see who emerges in these areas.

And - let's be honest - our kick coverage teams have been substandard for a while now.  Even with our good teams, it would bite us (remember LSU's Trindon Holloway retuning the kickoff right after DMac's electrifying 80 yard dash in 2006?  Or, the Honey Badger streaking 92 yards with a punt in 2011?  Or, the punt return that cost us the Rutgers game last year?).  I will be watching to see who CBB puts on the return team and if there is some "bite" in any of our pups.

[Inhogswetrust]

The kicking game is HUGE a lot of the time. I've been saying forever that a team will usually win one and lose one due to the kicking game going one way or the other. Sometimes it can be as subtle as a few yards average per punts or field position or field goal distance, etc.

[coastalrazorback]

Wizard, in your opinion how long do you think Allen's leash is? Do you think that we will see them start to look at other options if he isn't successful in the first 1/4 of the schedule? Or do think it is ride or die with BA all season long?
Hopefully, he has a great year and we won't need to explore other options.

As for the kicking game, I agree. A great kicker can be the difference between a win and a loss. So lets hope Hedlund is as good as advertised. And as for the return game, if Marshall can catch the ball you'd have to imagine that he would be a great candidate.

[Hoggish1]

A good summary.

1.  I like that we seem to have an excellent Special teams coach and a HC that values the kicking game.  In my memory, we haven't had that for 15 years (coaches).  Of course, Joe Adams doesn't come round often but there are some real burners that could be electrifying. And LM will be special (ouch! I wince when saying that...)

2.  Allen just needs to stay healthy in order to improve our QB play because not having him on the field is improvement, right there.

3.  With the running game we are building, I think our D will get a lot more rest than it's used to, which will improve the D significantly.  I don't anticipate the left hand not knowing what the right hand is doing (terminology/communication issues).

Add to this that we will have more depth in the secondary and our linebackers are a year older AND our D-line should be stout against the run—we should not be plagued by the big plays that trashed last season, starting with Rutgers.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

I can't read any of these prediction threads without reminiscing about Muskogee's thread before last season referring all who weren't buy 7-9 wins as "sucker" something.  What was the term he used?  Please, anybody.  It's killing me.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

If we don't get bit by the injury bug (especially at any key positions), and the back 7 is at least marginally improved, we can win 6 regular season games IMO.

[WizardofhOgZ]

Wizard, in your opinion how long do you think Allen's leash is? Do you think that we will see them start to look at other options if he isn't successful in the first 1/4 of the schedule? Or do think it is ride or die with BA all season long?

I'm just a fan, like everyone else.  So this is only my personal speculation.

I'd be surprised and disappointed if they started someone else over him (barring injury) in the first 9-10 games.  First and foremost, because if they do, that means we're headed for another disastrous season.  I like Rafe, but he's not anywhere near ready to lead us to wins in the SEC yet.  I don't think Austin is either.  So if Brandon isn't starting, we're in trouble.

Now, that may change by the end of the year.  If BA just isn't playing at the level he needs to, by then it may be time to turn the page toward the future for the last couple of games.  BA will be a senior next year, but if he isn't getting it as a "healthy" 4th year junior, odds are he never will.  At that point, get the "next" guy some live reps.

[coastalrazorback]

If we don't get bit by the injury bug (especially at any key positions), and the back 7 is at least marginally improved, we can win 6 regular season games IMO.

This is where I am. I would consider a 6 win season headed in the right direction.

[Biggus Piggus]

We have the same setup as last season. Nobody but BA is going to get enough practice reps to start.

[Boston RedHogs]

I am one who thinks we're not that piss poor and far off.  I don't buy into the idea that last season's results dictate the upcoming season's outlook.  That's what all the media guys lean on, but I'm not with them.  Never have been.  Each season is a new animal....especially in the college game.  I'm optimistic given the way we played our last 4 games of the season.

That said, the strength of our conference precludes me from ever making any preseason prognostications.

Wouldn't shock me if the boys won 3 games
Wouldn't shock me if the boys won 8 games

That's college football for you.  That's the SEC.  That's why it's great! 

[choppedporkextrasauce]

We have the same setup as last season. Nobody but BA is going to get enough practice reps to start.

but I feel that our backups have more ability than Derby. But lets get some wins in the Non conference and get some 4th quarter reps for AA or RP.

[jgphillips3]

In pragmatic terms, I think Brandon will get the first four games without question.  After that, if we are clicking, no question he has the helm the rest of the way.  If he is stinking the field up, I think we will see Austin game 5 or 6 as a switch up.  I personally don't think he will stink the field up and will be at least serviceable so I expect to only see AA stepping in for mop up duty in a blow out win or blow out loss.  Unless Rafe comes on so strong they can't keep him off the field, I think they'll keep the redshirt on him and play Austin as back up.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

but I feel that our backups have more ability than Derby. But lets get some wins in the Non conference and get some 4th quarter reps for AA or RP.

I think that under normal circumstances, where you had a starting QB who had the benefit of an uninjured, previous full year of experience under his belt, you would see back-ups getting some 4th quarter reps or reps as soon as a game was well in hand. But given what BA went through last year, the staff may choose to leave him in to allow him to build his confidence.

On the other hand, maybe they do choose to give the back ups some reps late in games just to allow them to acclimate in a less pressure packed game situation. We really don't know what their plan is in this situation. The question is, how many games are we going to have where we are so far ahead that they feel confident in sitting BA and inserting AA or RP? That's the $64,000 dollar question.

[razorbackkid]

I think that under normal circumstances, where you had a starting QB who had the benefit of an uninjured, previous full year of experience under his belt, you would see back-ups getting some 4th quarter reps or reps as soon as a game was well in hand. But given what BA went through last year, the staff may choose to leave him in to allow him to build his confidence.

On the other hand, maybe they do choose to give the back ups some reps late in games just to allow them to acclimate in a less pressure packed game situation. We really don't know what their plan is in this situation. The question is, how many games are we going to have where we are so far ahead that they feel confident in sitting BA and inserting AA or RP? That's the $64,000 dollar question.

That's a lot of money for that question, if one knew the answer today it could be worth millions. 

[WizardofhOgZ]

I think this:

"But given what BA went through last year, the staff may choose to leave him in to allow him to build his confidence."

. . . is much more likely than this:

"On the other hand, maybe they do choose to give the back ups some reps late in games just to allow them to acclimate in a less pressure packed game situation."

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I think this:

"But given what BA went through last year, the staff may choose to leave him in to allow him to build his confidence."

. . . is much more likely than this:

"On the other hand, maybe they do choose to give the back ups some reps late in games just to allow them to acclimate in a less pressure packed game situation."

The flip side of this is that leaving him in during minutes that would ordinarily be handled by a back-up, you run the risk of him getting hurt again in what might be considered to be "garbage minutes", and you aren't preparing your back ups to step in and be serviceable in real game action should the unthinkable occur again.

[PonderinHog]

The flip side of this is that leaving him in during minutes that would ordinarily be handled by a back-up, you run the risk of him getting hurt again in what might be considered to be "garbage minutes", and you aren't preparing your back ups to step in and be serviceable in real game action should the unthinkable occur again.

Exactly.

[WizardofhOgZ]

The flip side of this is than leaving him in during minutes that would ordinarily be handled by a back-up, you run the risk of him getting hurt again in what might be considered to be "garbage minutes", and you aren't preparing your back ups to step in and be serviceable in real game action should the unthinkable occur again.

Yes, but it's different that leaving a proven Clint Stoerner or Ryan Mallett in late in a decided game.  Those guys had skins on the wall and did not need the reps.  Allen is at a different stage of development right now.  Later in the year, perhaps.  But unless he's injured or has been pounded all day, he needs the reps.

[hawg IQ]

With others starting to weigh in on their predictions, concerns, questions, etc. about the 2014 season, here are a couple I'll chip in with (FWIW) . . .

1)  In my mind, this is Brandon Allen's first year at QB.  Of course, that isn't true - technically.  But I believe last year is a throw away season that really doesn't give us any thing approaching a good read on his ability that we can project into this season and next.  Now, I understand why folks will do that - take his stats and performance from last year and attempt to project his performance this season off of those.  Indeed - if you knew nothing more, that would be the most logical thing to do.

But we do have more information.  Last year was Brandon's first significant live action, except for a thrown-to-the-wolves appearance against mighty Alabama at the nadir of the "Smile" regime.  In his first extended duty (last season), he looked "pretty good" if not great in his first two and a half games, hitting 60% of his passes and making some timely runs - and then he injured his shoulder.  He should have taken 3 or 4 games off and gotten healthy, but being a competitor (and with Arkansas having a total void behind him), he didn't.  It was pretty obvious that his arm was never the same after his hasty return.

And, of course, our team had other massive problems, heaping even more pressure on the QB position.  He was in no position to carry that type of load, but had no choice but to try.  The results were often hard to watch.

Now, I'm not necessarily predicting stardom for him.  He may end up not being "the one".  I'm just saying that I'm pretty much where I was at this time last year where BA is concerned - excited about seeing how he does and optimistic that he will perform at a level where QB won't be the issue this team doesn't win (if we don't).  I really feel there's a good chance his performance will be much better this year than last - assuming he stays relatively healthy.  I know a lot here have given up on him already.  I haven't.

2)  The kicking game is a lot larger part of the overall game than most fans realize.  I don't think it's an equal third (in modern day football), but it's probably 20-25% of the total effort/result, IMO.  We've been the beneficiary of outstanding kicking the last few years, with Breeding, Hocker and Hill.  Where we haven't been as strong is in the coverage and return teams (since the days of Felix and Joe).

With Sam returning, we should be solid in the punting game. At a place that has been blessed with a host of great kickers over the last 40 years, Hocker was arguably our best ever.  Especially when you combine his kickoffs to his FG and extra point efforts.  I'm anxious to see Cole Hedlund perform his placement chores.  Many are just taking for granted that he will come in and pick up where Zach left off.  Cole comes with a good pedigree - but - transitioning to the college game in front of 70-100K fans doesn't always just "happen".  It did for Zach, and we really need to hope that it does for Cole also.

The other aspects have more questions than answers.  It would seem that we have several candidates for return (both kickoff and punt), but really no one that has any skins on the wall at this level.  The first thing for any return man is that he MUST catch the ball consistently, which is not as much of a given as most suspect - especially in the punting game, where 4.4 missiles are descending upon you as you look up at the ball, waiting for it to arrive.  It will be interesting to see who emerges in these areas.

And - let's be honest - our kick coverage teams have been substandard for a while now.  Even with our good teams, it would bite us (remember LSU's Trindon Holloway retuning the kickoff right after DMac's electrifying 80 yard dash in 2006?  Or, the Honey Badger streaking 92 yards with a punt in 2011?  Or, the punt return that cost us the Rutgers game last year?).  I will be watching to see who CBB puts on the return team and if there is some "bite" in any of our pups.

As Brandon Allen goes, so does the hog offense. Listen we are going to move the ball against most teams on the ground. The big question, can we through the air.
  I agree we haven't done well in the past on special teams and need to contain hurtful returns at in opportune times. Still the kicking game should be decent depending on an even average development there.

  Yet, the win/losses depends on the defense. Secondary play, linebacker player are keys.  Also we have to do better calling our offensive plays/ defensive decisions also IMO.
Arkansas was not as far away last year as it appeared? We let 3 games slip through our hands that should have been wins.  6-6 not only sounds better but is by far a stronger recruiting tool that would helped out last February.

Yet a very tough schedule is ahead this fall and winning could become difficult.  But that's why coaches get paid so well, right?

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Yes, but it's different that leaving a proven Clint Stoerner or Ryan Mallett in late in a decided game.  Those guys had skins on the wall and did not need the reps.  Allen is at a different stage of development right now.  Later in the year, perhaps.  But unless he's injured or has been pounded all day, he needs the reps.

I don't disagree, but it remains a tough call. Does he need the success so that he plays more confidently? I would say yes. But it remains a roll of the dice.

[Bacon_Bitz]

I don't know what's going to happen, I agree it could be anywhere from 3 wins to 8 wins, but it's going to be what it's going to be.  Coach B is ridin' or dyin' w/ BA, so I am, too.  If I wasn't, then I ain't really a Hog fan.